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The most recent comprehensive survey-based global median income estimate.","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Worldwide, Median Household Income About $10,000","type":"webpage","url":"https://news.gallup.com/poll/166211/worldwide-median-household-income-000.aspx","urls":["https://news.gallup.com/poll/166211/worldwide-median-household-income-000.aspx"],"year":"2013"},"gbd-disability-weights":{"author":"GBD 2019 Diseases and Injuries Collaborators","id":"gbd-disability-weights","note":null,"quote":null,"source":"The Lancet","title":"Global Burden of Disease Study 2019: Disability Weights","type":"article-journal","url":"https://ghdx.healthdata.org/record/ihme-data/gbd-2019-disability-weights","urls":["https://ghdx.healthdata.org/record/ihme-data/gbd-2019-disability-weights"],"year":"2020"},"givewell-cost-per-life-saved":{"author":"GiveWell","id":"givewell-cost-per-life-saved","note":"GiveWell: Top Charities | GiveWell: Helen Keller Vitamin A | Our World in Data: Cost-Effectiveness","quote":null,"source":"GiveWell: Top Charities","title":"GiveWell Cost per Life Saved for Top Charities (2024)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities","urls":["https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities"],"year":null},"global-clinical-trials-market-2024":{"author":"Research and Markets","id":"global-clinical-trials-market-2024","note":"Research and Markets, Global Clinical Trials Market Report 2024 | Precedence Research, Clinical Trials Market Size","quote":null,"source":"Research and Markets","title":"Global clinical trials market 2024","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/04/19/2866012/0/en/Global-Clinical-Trials-Market-Research-Report-2024-An-83-16-Billion-Market-by-2030-AI-Machine-Learning-and-Blockchain-will-Transform-the-Clinical-Trials-Landscape.html","urls":["https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/04/19/2866012/0/en/Global-Clinical-Trials-Market-Research-Report-2024-An-83-16-Billion-Market-by-2030-AI-Machine-Learning-and-Blockchain-will-Transform-the-Clinical-Trials-Landscape.html"],"year":"2024"},"global-gov-med-research-spending":{"author":"Component country budgets","id":"global-gov-med-research-spending","note":"See component country budgets: NIH Budget, China R&D, EU Horizon Health","quote":null,"source":"See component country budgets: NIH Budget","title":"Global government medical research spending (\\$67.5B, 2023–2024)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/what-we-do/budget","urls":["https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/what-we-do/budget"],"year":null},"global-government-clinical-trial-spending-estimate":{"author":"Applied Clinical Trials","id":"global-government-clinical-trial-spending-estimate","note":"Applied Clinical Trials | Lancet Global Health | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30357-0/fulltext","quote":null,"source":"Applied Clinical Trials","title":"Global government spending on interventional clinical trials: ~\\$3-6 billion/year","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.appliedclinicaltrialsonline.com/view/sizing-clinical-research-market","urls":["https://www.appliedclinicaltrialsonline.com/view/sizing-clinical-research-market"],"year":null},"global-median-age-un-wpp-2024":{"author":"United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division","id":"global-median-age-un-wpp-2024","note":"UN WPP 2024. Global median age 30.5 years (2024 estimate). Worldometers reports 31.1 for 2026 based on same data.","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results","type":"webpage","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp","urls":["https://population.un.org/wpp"],"year":"2024"},"global-military-spending":{"author":"SIPRI","id":"global-military-spending","note":"SIPRI, 2025, Trends in World Military Expenditure 2024","quote":null,"source":"SIPRI","title":"Global military spending (\\$2.72T, 2024)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2024","urls":["https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2024"],"year":"2025"},"global-new-drug-approvals-50-annually":{"author":"C&EN","id":"global-new-drug-approvals-50-annually","note":"C&EN, 2025, 50 new drugs received FDA approval in 2024 | FDA, Novel Drug Approvals | Note: Average ~50 per year 2018-2024; 32 small molecules + 18 biologics in 2024","quote":null,"source":"C&EN","title":"Annual number of new drugs approved globally: ~50","type":"article-journal","url":"https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/50-new-drugs-received-FDA/103/i2","urls":["https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/50-new-drugs-received-FDA/103/i2"],"year":"2025"},"global-nuclear-weapon-maintenance-100b":{"author":"ICAN","id":"global-nuclear-weapon-maintenance-100b","note":"ICAN: Global Spending \\$100B 2024 | ICAN: The Cost of Nuclear Weapons","quote":null,"source":"ICAN: Global Spending \\$100B 2024","title":"Global nuclear weapon maintenance cost: \\$100 billion/year","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.icanw.org/global_spending_on_nuclear_weapons_topped_100_billion_in_2024","urls":["https://www.icanw.org/global_spending_on_nuclear_weapons_topped_100_billion_in_2024"],"year":"2024"},"global-pharma-rd-spending-300b":{"author":"Industry reports: IQVIA","id":"global-pharma-rd-spending-300b","note":"Industry reports: IQVIA, EvaluatePharma, PhRMA","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Global pharmaceutical R&D spending","type":"webpage","url":null,"urls":[],"year":null},"global-population-8-billion":{"author":"UN","id":"global-population-8-billion","note":"UN: World Population 8 Billion Nov 15 2022 | UN: Day of 8 Billion | Wikipedia: Day of Eight Billion","quote":null,"source":"UN: World Population 8 Billion Nov 15 2022","title":"Global population reaches 8 billion","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-reach-8-billion-15-november-2022","urls":["https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-reach-8-billion-15-november-2022"],"year":"2022"},"global-trial-participant-capacity":{"author":"IQVIA Report","id":"global-trial-participant-capacity","note":"IQVIA Report: Clinical Trial Subjects Number Drops Due to Decline in COVID-19 Enrollment","quote":null,"source":"IQVIA Report: Clinical Trial Subjects Number Drops Due to Decline in COVID-19 Enrollment","title":"Global trial capacity","type":"article-journal","url":"https://gmdpacademy.org/news/iqvia-report-clinical-trial-subjects-number-drops-due-to-decline-in-covid-19-enrollment/","urls":["https://gmdpacademy.org/news/iqvia-report-clinical-trial-subjects-number-drops-due-to-decline-in-covid-19-enrollment/"],"year":null},"gtd-terror-attack-deaths":{"author":"Our World in Data","id":"gtd-terror-attack-deaths","note":"Our World in Data: Terrorism | Global Terrorism Index 2024 | START Global Terrorism Database | Our World in Data: Terrorism Deaths","quote":null,"source":"Our World in Data: Terrorism","title":"Terror attack deaths (8,300 annually)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://ourworldindata.org/terrorism","urls":["https://ourworldindata.org/terrorism"],"year":"2024"},"harrison-economics-wwii":{"author":"Harrison, Mark","id":"harrison-economics-wwii","note":"Comprehensive economic analysis of six major belligerents (US, UK, Germany, USSR, Japan, Italy). Combined military spending across all belligerents approximately \\$1,301 billion in wartime dollars. Peak military burdens: Japan 76% of GDP, Germany 70%, USSR 61%, UK 53%, US 40%.","quote":null,"source":"Cambridge University Press","title":"The Economics of World War II: Six Great Powers in International Comparison","type":"book","url":"https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/economics-of-world-war-ii/043CE9F3DC5036A731E5555C4A84E424","urls":["https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/economics-of-world-war-ii/043CE9F3DC5036A731E5555C4A84E424"],"year":"2000"},"healthcare-investment-economic-multiplier":{"author":"PMC","id":"healthcare-investment-economic-multiplier","note":"PMC: California Universal Health Care | CEPR: Government Investment | PMC: Health Sector Investment & Growth | ODI: Fiscal Multipliers Review","quote":null,"source":"PMC: California Universal Health Care","title":"Healthcare investment economic multiplier (1.8)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5954824/","urls":["https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5954824/"],"year":"2022"},"hitech-ehr-incentive-estimated-spending":{"author":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","id":"hitech-ehr-incentive-estimated-spending","note":"GAO states Medicare and Medicaid EHR incentive program spending was estimated to total \\$30 billion from 2011 through 2019.","quote":null,"source":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","title":"Electronic Health Records: First Year of CMS's Incentive Programs Shows Opportunities to Improve Processes to Verify Providers Met Requirements","type":"report","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-12-481","urls":["https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-12-481"],"year":"2012"},"hsieh-moretti2019":{"author":"Hsieh, Chang-Tai and Moretti, Enrico","id":"hsieh-moretti2019","note":"Hsieh & Moretti, 2019, AEJ:Macro | Highly cited - one of most influential papers in urban economics","quote":null,"source":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","title":"Housing Constraints and Spatial Misallocation","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20170388","urls":["https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20170388"],"year":"2019"},"human-genome-and-genetic-editing":{"author":"NHGRI","id":"human-genome-and-genetic-editing","note":"NHGRI, International Consortium Completes Human Genome Project | Nobel Prize, The Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2020 | Note: HGP cost ~\\$2.7B; CRISPR discovered by Doudna & Charpentier in 2012","quote":null,"source":"NHGRI","title":"Human Genome Project and CRISPR Discovery","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.genome.gov/11006929/2003-release-international-consortium-completes-hgp","urls":["https://www.genome.gov/11006929/2003-release-international-consortium-completes-hgp"],"year":"2003"},"icbl-ottawa-treaty":{"author":"ICRC","id":"icbl-ottawa-treaty","note":"ICRC, Ottawa Treaty History | Wikipedia, International Campaign to Ban Landmines | Nobel Prize, 1997 Peace Prize | UN Press, ICBL Press Conference 1999 | Landmine Monitor, Mine Action Funding","quote":null,"source":"ICRC","title":"International Campaign to Ban Landmines (ICBL) - Ottawa Treaty (1997)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/resources/documents/article/other/57jpjn.htm","urls":["https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/resources/documents/article/other/57jpjn.htm"],"year":"1997"},"icd-10-code-count":{"author":"WHO","id":"icd-10-code-count","note":"WHO, ICD-10 Browser","quote":null,"source":"WHO","title":"ICD-10 Code Count (~14,000)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://icd.who.int/browse10/2019/en","urls":["https://icd.who.int/browse10/2019/en"],"year":"2019"},"ihme-gbd-2021":{"author":"Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)","id":"ihme-gbd-2021","note":"Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), GBD Results Tool | The Lancet, 2024, Global burden of 371 diseases and injuries, and 87 risk factors, in 204 countries, 2000-2021 | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)00757-8/fulltext | IHME, Global Burden of Disease Study 2021","quote":null,"source":"Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)","title":"IHME Global Burden of Disease 2021 (2.88B DALYs, 1.13B YLD)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/","urls":["https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/"],"year":"2024"},"imf-fossilfuel2023":{"author":"International Monetary Fund","id":"imf-fossilfuel2023","note":null,"quote":null,"source":null,"title":"IMF Fossil Fuel Subsidies Data: 2023 Update","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/08/24/fossil-fuel-subsidies-surged-to-record-7-trillion","urls":["https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/08/24/fossil-fuel-subsidies-surged-to-record-7-trillion"],"year":"2023"},"imf-singapore-spending":{"author":"International Monetary Fund","id":"imf-singapore-spending","note":"IMF, 2024, Singapore Country Data","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"IMF Singapore Government Spending Data","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/SGP","urls":["https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/SGP"],"year":"2024"},"industry-clinical-trial-spending-estimate":{"author":"Sinn, Mike P.","id":"industry-clinical-trial-spending-estimate","note":"Derived estimate using published market-sizing and funding-distribution sources. Supporting sources: https://www.appliedclinicaltrialsonline.com/view/sizing-clinical-research-market | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10349341/ | https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57126","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Private Industry Clinical Trial Spending Estimate","type":"webpage","url":"https://cost-of-change.warondisease.org","urls":["https://cost-of-change.warondisease.org"],"year":"2025"},"industry-vs-government-trial-spending-split":{"author":"Applied Clinical Trials","id":"industry-vs-government-trial-spending-split","note":"Applied Clinical Trials | TCTMD","quote":null,"source":"Applied Clinical Trials","title":"Industry vs. Government Clinical Trial Spending Split (90/10)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.appliedclinicaltrialsonline.com/view/sizing-clinical-research-market","urls":["https://www.appliedclinicaltrialsonline.com/view/sizing-clinical-research-market"],"year":null},"infrastructure-investment-economic-multiplier":{"author":"World Bank","id":"infrastructure-investment-economic-multiplier","note":"World Bank: Infrastructure Investment as Stimulus | Global Infrastructure Hub: Fiscal Multiplier | CEPR: Government Investment | Richmond Fed: Infrastructure Spending","quote":null,"source":"World Bank: Infrastructure Investment as Stimulus","title":"Infrastructure investment economic multiplier (1.6)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/ppps/effectiveness-infrastructure-investment-fiscal-stimulus-what-weve-learned","urls":["https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/ppps/effectiveness-infrastructure-investment-fiscal-stimulus-what-weve-learned"],"year":"2022"},"international-idea-voter-turnout-database-2026":{"author":"International IDEA","id":"international-idea-voter-turnout-database-2026","note":"International IDEA Voter Turnout Database export plus methodology page","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"International IDEA Voter Turnout Database world export","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.idea.int/data-tools/export?type=region_only&themeId=293&world=all&loc=home","urls":["https://www.idea.int/data-tools/export?type=region_only&themeId=293&world=all&loc=home"],"year":"2026"},"iqvia-global-medicines-2024":{"author":"IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science","id":"iqvia-global-medicines-2024","note":null,"quote":null,"source":"IQVIA Institute Report","title":"The Global Use of Medicines 2024: Outlook to 2028","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.iqvia.com/insights/the-iqvia-institute/reports-and-publications/reports/the-global-use-of-medicines-2024-outlook-to-2028","urls":["https://www.iqvia.com/insights/the-iqvia-institute/reports-and-publications/reports/the-global-use-of-medicines-2024-outlook-to-2028"],"year":"2024"},"jones-schneider-iq-growth-2006":{"author":"Jones, Garett and Schneider, W. Joel","id":"jones-schneider-iq-growth-2006","note":"Free full text: https://mason.gmu.edu/~gjonesb/JonesSchneIQ. The underlying cross-country IQ data (Lynn and Vanhanen) is contested (Wicherts et al. 2010); treated here as a wide-uncertainty elasticity.","quote":null,"source":"Journal of Economic Growth","title":"Intelligence, Human Capital, and Economic Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach","type":"article-journal","url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-006-7407-2","urls":["https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-006-7407-2"],"year":"2006"},"kovarik-leaded-gasoline-history-2005":{"author":"Kovarik, William","id":"kovarik-leaded-gasoline-history-2005","note":null,"quote":null,"source":"International Journal of Occupational and Environmental Health","title":"Ethyl-leaded Gasoline: How a Classic Occupational Disease Became an International Public Health Disaster","type":"article-journal","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16350473/","urls":["https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16350473/"],"year":"2005"},"leitenberg-deaths-wars-2006":{"author":"Leitenberg, Milton","id":"leitenberg-deaths-wars-2006","note":null,"quote":null,"source":"Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)","title":"Deaths in Wars and Conflicts in the 20th Century","type":"report","url":"https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/20060800_cdsp_occ_leitenberg.pdf","urls":["https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/20060800_cdsp_occ_leitenberg.pdf"],"year":"2006"},"lichtenberg-life-years-saved-2019":{"author":"Lichtenberg, Frank R.","id":"lichtenberg-life-years-saved-2019","note":null,"quote":null,"source":"International Health","title":"How Many Life-Years Have New Drugs Saved? A Three-Way Fixed-Effects Analysis of 66 Diseases in 27 Countries, 2000-2013","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.nber.org/papers/w25483","urls":["https://www.nber.org/papers/w25483"],"year":"2019"},"life-expectancy-gains-smoking-reduction":{"author":"PMC","id":"life-expectancy-gains-smoking-reduction","note":"PMC: Benefits Smoking Cessation Longevity | CDC: Estimating Benefits Smoking Reductions | AJPM: Benefits Quitting Different Ages | https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(24)00217-4/fulltext | NEJM: 21st-Century Hazards & Benefits","quote":null,"source":"PMC: Benefits Smoking Cessation Longevity","title":"Contribution of smoking reduction to life expectancy gains","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1447499/","urls":["https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1447499/"],"year":"2012"},"life-expectancy-increase-pre-1962":{"author":"Source: US Life Expectancy FDA Budget 1543-2019 CSV","id":"life-expectancy-increase-pre-1962","note":"Source: US Life Expectancy FDA Budget 1543-2019 CSV | Our World in Data: Life Expectancy | Primary sources: Human Mortality Database (historical), CDC NCHS National Vital Statistics (modern)","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"US life expectancy growth 1880-1960: 3.82 years per decade","type":"webpage","url":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/data/us-life-expectancy-fda-budget-1543-2019.csv","urls":["https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/data/us-life-expectancy-fda-budget-1543-2019.csv"],"year":"2019"},"lobbying-spend-defense":{"author":"OpenSecrets","id":"lobbying-spend-defense","note":"OpenSecrets, 2025, Defense Sector Lobbying","quote":null,"source":"OpenSecrets","title":"Defense Sector Lobbying Summary","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.opensecrets.org/federal-lobbying/sectors/summary?id=D","urls":["https://www.opensecrets.org/federal-lobbying/sectors/summary?id=D"],"year":"2025"},"lobbyist-statistics-dc":{"author":"OpenSecrets","id":"lobbyist-statistics-dc","note":"OpenSecrets: Lobbying in US | OpenSecrets: Revolving Door | Citizen.org: Revolving Congress | ProPublica: 281 Lobbyists Trump Admin","quote":null,"source":"OpenSecrets: Lobbying in US","title":"Lobbyist statistics for Washington D.C.","type":"article-journal","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lobbying_in_the_United_States","urls":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lobbying_in_the_United_States"],"year":null},"longevity-escape-velocity":{"author":"Wikipedia","id":"longevity-escape-velocity","note":"Wikipedia: Longevity Escape Velocity | PMC: Escape Velocity - Why Life Extension Matters Now | Popular Mechanics: Can Science Cure Death? | Diamandis: Longevity Escape Velocity","quote":null,"source":"Wikipedia: Longevity Escape Velocity","title":"Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) - Maximum Human Life Extension Potential","type":"article-journal","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity","urls":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity"],"year":null},"lost-human-capital-war-cost":{"author":"Think by Numbers","id":"lost-human-capital-war-cost","note":"Think by Numbers: War Costs \\$74,259/Lifetime | WEF: War Violence Costs \\$5/Day | PubMed: Economic Value DALYs Violence","quote":null,"source":"Think by Numbers","title":"Lost human capital due to war (\\$270B annually)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://thinkbynumbers.org/military/war/the-economic-case-for-peace-a-comprehensive-financial-analysis/","urls":["https://thinkbynumbers.org/military/war/the-economic-case-for-peace-a-comprehensive-financial-analysis/"],"year":"2021"},"maddison-project-2020":{"author":"Bolt, Jutta and van Zanden, Jan Luiten","id":"maddison-project-2020","note":null,"quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Maddison Project Database 2020","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2020","urls":["https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2020"],"year":"2020"},"mcfarland-lead-iq-2022":{"author":"McFarland, Michael J. and Hauer, Matt E. and Reuben, Aaron","id":"mcfarland-lead-iq-2022","note":null,"quote":null,"source":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences","title":"Half of US Population Exposed to Adverse Lead Levels in Early Childhood","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2118631119","urls":["https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2118631119"],"year":"2022"},"measles-vaccination-roi":{"author":"MDPI Vaccines","id":"measles-vaccination-roi","note":"MDPI Vaccines, 2024, Health and Economic Benefits of US Measles and Rubella Control | Taylor & Francis, 2024, Economic Evaluation of Second MCV Dose","quote":null,"source":"MDPI Vaccines","title":"Measles Vaccination ROI","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/12/11/1210","urls":["https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/12/11/1210"],"year":"2024"},"medical-research-lives-saved-annually":{"author":"ScienceDaily","id":"medical-research-lives-saved-annually","note":"ScienceDaily: Physical Activity Prevents 4M Deaths | PMC: Lives Saved by COVID Vaccines | Circulation: Three Interventions Save 94M Lives | PMC: Saving Millions Pandemic Research","quote":null,"source":"ScienceDaily: Physical Activity Prevents 4M Deaths","title":"Medical research lives saved annually (4.2 million)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200617194510.htm","urls":["https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200617194510.htm"],"year":"2020"},"mental-health-burden":{"author":"World Health Organization","id":"mental-health-burden","note":"World Health Organization, 2022, Mental Health Fact Sheet","quote":null,"source":"World Health Organization","title":"Mental health global burden","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.who.int/news/item/28-09-2001-the-world-health-report-2001-mental-disorders-affect-one-in-four-people","urls":["https://www.who.int/news/item/28-09-2001-the-world-health-report-2001-mental-disorders-affect-one-in-four-people"],"year":"2022"},"military-spending-economic-multiplier":{"author":"Mercatus","id":"military-spending-economic-multiplier","note":"Mercatus: Defense Spending and Economy | CEPR: WWII Spending Multipliers | RAND: Defense Spending Economic Growth","quote":null,"source":"Mercatus: Defense Spending and Economy","title":"Military spending economic multiplier (0.6)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.mercatus.org/research/research-papers/defense-spending-and-economy","urls":["https://www.mercatus.org/research/research-papers/defense-spending-and-economy"],"year":null},"munger-2017-tweetment-effects":{"author":"Munger, Kevin","id":"munger-2017-tweetment-effects","note":"Field experiment using Twitter bot replies; effects depended on the perceived identity and follower status of the correcting account.","quote":null,"source":"Political Behavior","title":"Tweetment Effects on the Tweeted: Experimentally Reducing Racist Harassment","type":"article-journal","url":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-016-9373-5","urls":["https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-016-9373-5"],"year":"2017"},"nato-556-ammo-cost":{"author":"U.S. Department of Defense","id":"nato-556-ammo-cost","note":"Military bulk procurement price for M855 5.56x45mm NATO ball ammunition. Civilian retail prices range \\$0.37--\\$0.60/round; military bulk contracts are typically at or below retail floor. \\$0.40/round used as conservative midpoint.","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"5.56mm NATO Ammunition Bulk Procurement Pricing","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.bulkcheapammo.com/rifle-ammo/556-ammo","urls":["https://www.bulkcheapammo.com/rifle-ammo/556-ammo"],"year":"2024"},"nato-556-rounds-per-kill":{"author":"Pike, John","id":"nato-556-rounds-per-kill","note":"Based on GAO figures showing approximately 6 billion bullets expended between 2002 and 2005 in Iraq and Afghanistan. Calculated by military researcher John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org.","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"U.S. Forces Fire 250,000 Rounds for Every Insurgent Killed","type":"webpage","url":"https://jonathanturley.org/2011/01/10/gao-u-s-has-fired-250000-rounds-for-every-insurgent-killed/","urls":["https://jonathanturley.org/2011/01/10/gao-u-s-has-fired-250000-rounds-for-every-insurgent-killed/"],"year":"2011"},"necrometrics-20th-century":{"author":"White, Matthew","id":"necrometrics-20th-century","note":null,"quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Estimated Totals for the Entire 20th Century","type":"webpage","url":"https://necrometrics.com/all20c.htm","urls":["https://necrometrics.com/all20c.htm"],"year":"2011"},"nih-brain-initiative-planned-budget":{"author":"National Institutes of Health BRAIN Initiative","id":"nih-brain-initiative-planned-budget","note":"The BRAIN 2025 scientific vision set the NIH component plan; NIH notices describe the plan as a sustained federal commitment of \\$4.5 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~3.3%","type":"article-journal","url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10349341/","urls":["https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10349341/"],"year":"2023"},"nonprofit-clinical-trial-spending-estimate":{"author":"Estimated from major foundation budgets and activities","id":"nonprofit-clinical-trial-spending-estimate","note":"Estimated from major foundation budgets and activities","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Nonprofit clinical trial funding estimate","type":"webpage","url":null,"urls":[],"year":null},"nordhaus2004":{"author":"Nordhaus, William D.","id":"nordhaus2004","note":"Estimates that innovators capture about 2.2 percent of total social surplus from innovation","quote":null,"source":"National Bureau of Economic Research","title":"Schumpeterian Profits in the American Economy: Theory and Measurement","type":"report","url":"https://www.nber.org/papers/w10433","urls":["https://www.nber.org/papers/w10433"],"year":"2004"},"nuke-winter-150tg":{"author":"Xia et al., Nature Food","id":"nuke-winter-150tg","note":"Xia et al., Nature Food, 2022, Global food insecurity and famine from nuclear war soot injection","quote":null,"source":"Xia et al.","title":"Nuclear Winter Famine","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0","urls":["https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0"],"year":"2022"},"odds-of-decisive-vote":{"author":"Columbia/NBER","id":"odds-of-decisive-vote","note":"Columbia/NBER: What Is the Probability Your Vote Will Make a Difference? | Economic Inquiry 2012","quote":null,"source":"Columbia/NBER: What Is the Probability Your Vote Will Make a Difference?","title":"Odds of a single vote being decisive in a U.S. presidential election","type":"article-journal","url":"https://sites.stat.columbia.edu/gelman/research/published/probdecisive2.pdf","urls":["https://sites.stat.columbia.edu/gelman/research/published/probdecisive2.pdf"],"year":"2012"},"oecd-govt-spending":{"author":"OECD","id":"oecd-govt-spending","note":"OECD, 2024, General Government Spending","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"OECD Government Spending as Percentage of GDP","type":"webpage","url":"https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-spending.htm","urls":["https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-spending.htm"],"year":"2024"},"oecd-median-income":{"author":"OECD","id":"oecd-median-income","note":"OECD, 2024, Household Disposable Income","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"OECD Median Household Income 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Factors","quote":null,"source":"Trials: Patients' Willingness Survey","title":"Patient willingness to participate in clinical trials","type":"article-journal","url":"https://trialsjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13063-015-1105-3","urls":["https://trialsjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13063-015-1105-3"],"year":null},"pcornet-infrastructure-funding":{"author":"PCORnet","id":"pcornet-infrastructure-funding","note":"The dashboard reports PCORI funding for PCORnet Studies of \\$324,785,410, rounded here to \\$325 million as a network-scale infrastructure anchor.","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"PCORnet Quarterly Progress Report, Q4 2025","type":"webpage","url":"https://pcornet.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/EXTERNAL_PCORnetDashboard.Q4.v2.FINAL_.pdf","urls":["https://pcornet.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/EXTERNAL_PCORnetDashboard.Q4.v2.FINAL_.pdf"],"year":"2026"},"pentagon-unaccounted-2-5t":{"author":"The Commune","id":"pentagon-unaccounted-2-5t","note":"The Commune, 2024, Pentagon Misplaced \\$2.46 Trillion | Accounting Magazine, 2016, Audit: Pentagon Cannot Account for \\$6.5 Trillion Dollars","quote":null,"source":"The Commune","title":"Pentagon audit failures (\\$2.46T unaccounted)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://thecommunemag.com/the-pentagon-misplaced-2-46-trillion-an-in-depth-look-at-the-financial-audit-failures","urls":["https://thecommunemag.com/the-pentagon-misplaced-2-46-trillion-an-in-depth-look-at-the-financial-audit-failures"],"year":"2024"},"pharma-drug-revenue-average":{"author":"Value in Health","id":"pharma-drug-revenue-average","note":"Value in Health: Sales Revenues for New Therapeutic Agents | ScienceDirect: Sales Revenues FDA Drugs","quote":null,"source":"Value in Health: Sales Revenues for New Therapeutic Agents","title":"Average lifetime revenue per successful drug","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1098301524027542","urls":["https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1098301524027542"],"year":null},"pharma-roi-current":{"author":"Deloitte","id":"pharma-roi-current","note":"Deloitte: Measuring Pharmaceutical Innovation 2025 | Deloitte 2023: Pharma R&D ROI Falls | HIT Consultant: 13-Year Low","quote":null,"source":"Deloitte: Measuring Pharmaceutical Innovation 2025","title":"Pharmaceutical R&D return on investment (ROI)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.deloitte.com/ch/en/Industries/life-sciences-health-care/research/measuring-return-from-pharmaceutical-innovation.html","urls":["https://www.deloitte.com/ch/en/Industries/life-sciences-health-care/research/measuring-return-from-pharmaceutical-innovation.html"],"year":"2025"},"phase-3-cost-per-trial-range":{"author":"SofproMed","id":"phase-3-cost-per-trial-range","note":"SofproMed, How Much Does a Clinical Trial Cost | CBO, 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Finds: 1,600+ medicines available in 1962; >50% lost post-Kefauver-Harris Amendment; 1950s peak of >30 new products/year not replicated until late 1990s.","quote":null,"source":"Drug Discovery Today","title":"Lost medicines: a longer view of the pharmaceutical industry with the potential to reinvigorate discovery","type":"article-journal","url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7245331/","urls":["https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7245331/"],"year":"2019"},"post-1962-life-expectancy-slowdown":{"author":"Source: US Life Expectancy FDA Budget 1543-2019 CSV","id":"post-1962-life-expectancy-slowdown","note":"Source: US Life Expectancy FDA Budget 1543-2019 CSV | Our World in Data: Life Expectancy | Primary sources: Human Mortality Database (historical), CDC NCHS National Vital Statistics (modern)","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Post-1962 slowdown in life expectancy gains","type":"webpage","url":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/data/us-life-expectancy-fda-budget-1543-2019.csv","urls":["https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/data/us-life-expectancy-fda-budget-1543-2019.csv"],"year":"2019"},"pragmatic-trials-cost-advantage":{"author":"NIH Common Fund","id":"pragmatic-trials-cost-advantage","note":"NIH Common Fund: HCS Research Collaboratory | PCORnet ADAPTABLE Summary | PMC: Pragmatic Clinical Trials in Healthcare Systems","quote":null,"source":"NIH Common Fund: HCS Research Collaboratory","title":"NIH Pragmatic Trials: Minimal Funding Despite 30x Cost Advantage","type":"article-journal","url":"https://commonfund.nih.gov/hcscollaboratory","urls":["https://commonfund.nih.gov/hcscollaboratory"],"year":"2025"},"pre-1962-drug-costs-baily-1972":{"author":"Baily, Martin Neil","id":"pre-1962-drug-costs-baily-1972","note":"Baily (1972), \"Research and Development Costs and Returns: The U.S. Pharmaceutical Industry,\" cited in Health Affairs 1982, The Importance of Patent Term Restoration","quote":null,"source":"Baily (1972)","title":"Pre-1962 drug development costs (Baily 1972)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://samizdathealth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/hlthaff.1.2.6.pdf","urls":["https://samizdathealth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/hlthaff.1.2.6.pdf"],"year":"1972"},"pre-1962-drug-costs-timeline":{"author":"Think by Numbers","id":"pre-1962-drug-costs-timeline","note":"Think by Numbers: How Many Lives Does FDA Save? | Wikipedia: Cost of Drug Development | STAT: 1962 Law Slowed Development","quote":null,"source":"Think by Numbers: How Many Lives Does FDA Save?","title":"Pre-1962 drug development costs and timeline (Think by Numbers)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://thinkbynumbers.org/health/how-many-net-lives-does-the-fda-save/","urls":["https://thinkbynumbers.org/health/how-many-net-lives-does-the-fda-save/"],"year":"1962"},"pre-1962-physician-trials":{"author":"Think by Numbers","id":"pre-1962-physician-trials","note":"Think by Numbers: How Many Lives Does FDA Save? | FDA: Drug Efficacy Study Implementation | NAS: Drug Efficacy Study 1966-1969","quote":null,"source":"Think by Numbers: How Many Lives Does FDA Save?","title":"Pre-1962 physician-led clinical trials","type":"article-journal","url":"https://thinkbynumbers.org/health/how-many-net-lives-does-the-fda-save/","urls":["https://thinkbynumbers.org/health/how-many-net-lives-does-the-fda-save/"],"year":"1966"},"psychological-impact-war-cost":{"author":"PubMed","id":"psychological-impact-war-cost","note":"PubMed: Economic Burden of PTSD | VA News: Study Economic Burden | PMC: Mental Health Costs Armed Conflicts","quote":null,"source":"PubMed: Economic Burden of PTSD","title":"Psychological impact of war cost (\\$100B annually)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35485933/","urls":["https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35485933/"],"year":null},"qaly-threshold-history":{"author":"Gosse, M.E.","id":"qaly-threshold-history","note":null,"quote":null,"source":"Sustainability Impact Metrics","title":"Assessing cost-effectiveness in healthcare: history of the \\$50,000 per QALY threshold","type":"article-journal","url":"https://ecocostsvalue.com/EVR/img/references%20others/Gosse%202008%20QALY%20threshold%20financial.pdf","urls":["https://ecocostsvalue.com/EVR/img/references%20others/Gosse%202008%20QALY%20threshold%20financial.pdf"],"year":"2008"},"qaly-value":{"author":"ICER","id":"qaly-value","note":"ICER, Reference Case","quote":null,"source":"ICER","title":"Value per QALY (standard economic value)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://icer.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Reference-Case-4.3.25.pdf","urls":["https://icer.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Reference-Case-4.3.25.pdf"],"year":"2024"},"rare-disease-only-5pct-have-treatment":{"author":"Orphanet Journal of Rare Diseases (2024)","id":"rare-disease-only-5pct-have-treatment","note":"Orphanet Journal of Rare Diseases (2024)","quote":null,"source":"Orphanet Journal of Rare Diseases (2024)","title":"Rare Disease Treatment Gap","type":"article-journal","url":"https://ojrd.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13023-024-03398-1","urls":["https://ojrd.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13023-024-03398-1"],"year":"2024"},"recovery-cost-500":{"author":"Oren Cass, Manhattan Institute","id":"recovery-cost-500","note":"Oren Cass, Manhattan Institute, 2023, Slow, Costly Clinical Trials Drag Down Biomedical Breakthroughs","quote":null,"source":"Oren Cass","title":"RECOVERY Trial Cost per Patient","type":"article-journal","url":"https://manhattan.institute/article/slow-costly-clinical-trials-drag-down-biomedical-breakthroughs","urls":["https://manhattan.institute/article/slow-costly-clinical-trials-drag-down-biomedical-breakthroughs"],"year":"2023"},"recovery-trial-1m-lives-saved":{"author":"NHS England; Águas et al.","id":"recovery-trial-1m-lives-saved","note":"NHS England: 1 Million Lives Saved | Águas et al. 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J.","id":"rummel-death-by-government","note":null,"quote":null,"source":"Transaction Publishers","title":"Death by Government: Genocide and Mass Murder Since 1900","type":"book","url":"https://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/NOTE1.HTM","urls":["https://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/NOTE1.HTM"],"year":"1994"},"september-11-memorial":{"author":"National September 11 Memorial & Museum","id":"september-11-memorial","note":null,"quote":null,"source":null,"title":"September 11 Attack Facts","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.911memorial.org/911-faqs","urls":["https://www.911memorial.org/911-faqs"],"year":"2024"},"sipri-milex-2024":{"author":"Stockholm International Peace Research Institute","id":"sipri-milex-2024","note":"World military expenditure reached \\$2,718 billion in 2024, an increase of 9.4% in real terms from 2023, the steepest year-on-year rise since at least the end of the cold war. The 10th consecutive annual increase. Global military burden rose to 2.5% of GDP. NATO members spent \\$1.506 trillion (55% of world total). US spent \\$968 billion.","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2024","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2024","urls":["https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2024"],"year":"2025"},"sipri2024":{"author":"Stockholm International Peace Research Institute","id":"sipri2024","note":null,"quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2023","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.sipri.org/publications/2024/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2023","urls":["https://www.sipri.org/publications/2024/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2023"],"year":"2024"},"smallpox-eradication-roi":{"author":"CSIS","id":"smallpox-eradication-roi","note":"CSIS, Smallpox Eradication Model: Global Cooperation | PMC3720047, Link","quote":null,"source":"CSIS","title":"Smallpox Eradication ROI","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.csis.org/analysis/smallpox-eradication-model-global-cooperation","urls":["https://www.csis.org/analysis/smallpox-eradication-model-global-cooperation"],"year":null},"standard-medical-research-roi":{"author":"PMC","id":"standard-medical-research-roi","note":"PMC: Cost-effectiveness Thresholds Used by Study Authors, 1990-2021 | ICER Cost-Effectiveness Methods","quote":null,"source":"PMC: Cost-effectiveness Thresholds Used by Study Authors","title":"Standard Medical Research ROI (\\$20k-\\$100k/QALY)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10114019/","urls":["https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10114019/"],"year":"1990"},"state-farm-v-campbell-2003":{"author":"United States Supreme Court","id":"state-farm-v-campbell-2003","note":"Official United States Reports entry. The Court treated single-digit punitive-to-compensatory ratios as the due-process boundary in ordinary cases, while rejecting a rigid mathematical rule.","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co. v. 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(2004). The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few. Doubleday. | Wikipedia | Amazon","quote":null,"source":"Surowiecki","title":"The Wisdom of Crowds","type":"book","url":"https://archive.org/details/wisdomofcrowds0000suro","urls":["https://archive.org/details/wisdomofcrowds0000suro"],"year":"2004"},"swiss-military-budget-0-7-pct-gdp":{"author":"World Bank","id":"swiss-military-budget-0-7-pct-gdp","note":"World Bank: Military Expenditure % GDP Switzerland | Avenir Suisse: Defense Spending | Trading Economics: Switzerland Military Expenditure","quote":null,"source":"World Bank: Military Expenditure % GDP Switzerland","title":"Swiss military budget as percentage of GDP","type":"article-journal","url":"https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locations=CH","urls":["https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locations=CH"],"year":null},"swiss-vs-us-gdp-per-capita":{"author":"World Bank","id":"swiss-vs-us-gdp-per-capita","note":"World Bank: Switzerland GDP Per Capita | Trading Economics: Switzerland GDP Per Capita 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Compiled from OMB historical tables and BLS inflation data.","quote":null,"source":"DaveManuel.com","title":"U.S. Defense Spending History: 100 Years of Military Budgets","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.davemanuel.com/us-defense-spending-history-military-budget-data.php","urls":["https://www.davemanuel.com/us-defense-spending-history-military-budget-data.php"],"year":"2025"},"us-senate-treaties":{"author":"U.S. Senate","id":"us-senate-treaties","note":"U.S. Senate, Treaties","quote":null,"source":"U.S. Senate","title":"Treaties","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/treaties.htm","urls":["https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/treaties.htm"],"year":null},"us-voter-population":{"author":"US Census Bureau","id":"us-voter-population","note":"US Census Bureau, 2024 Voting and Registration | US EAC, 2024 Election Survey Report","quote":null,"source":"US Census Bureau","title":"Number of registered or eligible voters in the U.S.","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025/2024-presidential-election-voting-registration-tables.html","urls":["https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025/2024-presidential-election-voting-registration-tables.html"],"year":"2024"},"valley-of-death-attrition":{"author":"Hutchinson and Kirk","id":"valley-of-death-attrition","note":"Hutchinson & Kirk (2011), Drug Discov Today; conservative estimate 40% abandoned due to cost","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Valley of Death in Drug Development","type":"webpage","url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3324971/","urls":["https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3324971/"],"year":"2011"},"veteran-healthcare-cost-projections":{"author":"VA","id":"veteran-healthcare-cost-projections","note":"VA, FY 2026 Budget Submission | CBO, Veterans' Disability Compensation | American Legion, VA budget tops \\$400B for 2025","quote":null,"source":"VA","title":"Veteran healthcare cost projections","type":"article-journal","url":"https://department.va.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/2026-Budget-in-Brief.pdf","urls":["https://department.va.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/2026-Budget-in-Brief.pdf"],"year":"2026"},"vitamin-a-cost-per-daly":{"author":"PLOS ONE","id":"vitamin-a-cost-per-daly","note":"PLOS ONE: Cost-effectiveness of \"Golden Mustard\" for Treating Vitamin A Deficiency in India (2010) | PLOS ONE: Cost-effectiveness of Vitamin A supplementation in Sub-Saharan Africa (2022)","quote":null,"source":"PLOS ONE: Cost-effectiveness of \"Golden Mustard\" for Treating Vitamin A Deficiency in India (2010)","title":"Cost per DALY for Vitamin A Supplementation","type":"article-journal","url":"https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0012046","urls":["https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0012046"],"year":"2010"},"warren-buffett-career-average-return-20-pct":{"author":"CNBC","id":"warren-buffett-career-average-return-20-pct","note":"CNBC, Warren Buffett's return tally after 60 years: 5,502,284% | SlickCharts, Berkshire Hathaway Returns by Year","quote":null,"source":"CNBC","title":"Warren Buffett's career average investment return","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/05/warren-buffetts-return-tally-after-60-years-5502284percent.html","urls":["https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/05/warren-buffetts-return-tally-after-60-years-5502284percent.html"],"year":"2025"},"who-cost-effectiveness-threshold":{"author":"PMC","id":"who-cost-effectiveness-threshold","note":"PMC, Country-Level Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds | WHO, WHO-CHOICE Methods Update","quote":null,"source":"PMC","title":"Cost-effectiveness threshold (\\$50,000/QALY)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5193154/","urls":["https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5193154/"],"year":null},"who-gho-life-expectancy-age-60-2021":{"author":"World Health Organization","id":"who-gho-life-expectancy-age-60-2021","note":"WHO Global Health Estimates life tables, indicator WHOSIS_000015. Global both-sexes remaining life expectancy at age 60: 21.0 additional years (2019 peak), 19.6 years (2021, COVID-depressed). Values retrieved via the GHO OData API.","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Life Expectancy at Age 60 (Years): Global Health Observatory","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/indicators/indicator-details/GHO/life-expectancy-at-age-60-(years)","urls":["https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/indicators/indicator-details/GHO/life-expectancy-at-age-60-(years)"],"year":"2021"},"who-global-health-estimates-2024":{"author":"World Health Organization","id":"who-global-health-estimates-2024","note":"World Health Organization, 2024, Global Health Estimates: Life expectancy and leading causes of death and disability","quote":null,"source":"World Health Organization","title":"WHO Global Health Estimates 2024","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates","urls":["https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates"],"year":"2024"},"who-health-costs-extreme-poverty-2021":{"author":"World Health Organization and World Bank","id":"who-health-costs-extreme-poverty-2021","note":"Pre-pandemic baseline. Companion 2017 Tracking UHC report: ~100 million pushed into extreme poverty and ~800 million spending over 10 percent of household budgets on health. Disease burden is regressive; curing it raises the median more than the mean.","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"More than half a billion people pushed or pushed further into extreme poverty due to health care costs","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.who.int/news/item/12-12-2021-more-than-half-a-billion-people-pushed-or-pushed-further-into-extreme-poverty-due-to-health-care-costs","urls":["https://www.who.int/news/item/12-12-2021-more-than-half-a-billion-people-pushed-or-pushed-further-into-extreme-poverty-due-to-health-care-costs"],"year":"2021"},"who-life-expectancy":{"author":"World Health Organization","id":"who-life-expectancy","note":"WHO, 2024, Life Expectancy","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"WHO Life Expectancy Data by Country","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates/ghe-life-expectancy-and-healthy-life-expectancy","urls":["https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates/ghe-life-expectancy-and-healthy-life-expectancy"],"year":"2024"},"wood-porter-2019-backfire-effect":{"author":"Wood, Thomas and Porter, Ethan","id":"wood-porter-2019-backfire-effect","note":"Five experiments with more than 10,100 subjects and 52 correction tests found no corrections capable of triggering factual backfire.","quote":null,"source":"Political Behavior","title":"The Elusive Backfire Effect: Mass Attitudes' Steadfast Factual Adherence","type":"article-journal","url":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-018-9443-y","urls":["https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-018-9443-y"],"year":"2019"},"world-bank-government-expense-pct-gdp":{"author":"World Bank","id":"world-bank-government-expense-pct-gdp","note":"World Development Indicators, indicator GC.XPN.TOTL.GD.ZS. World general government total expense reported at 31.78% of GDP (2021, most recent global aggregate). Applied to IMF world GDP estimate of \\$115 trillion yields approximately \\$36 trillion in annual government expenditure worldwide.","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Expense (% of GDP) - World","type":"webpage","url":"https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GC.XPN.TOTL.GD.ZS?locations=1W","urls":["https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GC.XPN.TOTL.GD.ZS?locations=1W"],"year":"2024"},"world-bank-gross-savings-2023":{"author":"World Bank","id":"world-bank-gross-savings-2023","note":"World Development Indicators, indicator NY.GNS.ICTR.ZS. 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The 2024 world value is about \\$115 trillion.","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Market Capitalization of Listed Domestic Companies (Current US\\$)","type":"webpage","url":"https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/CM.MKT.LCAP.CD","urls":["https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/CM.MKT.LCAP.CD"],"year":"2026"},"world-bank-trade-disruption-conflict":{"author":"World Bank","id":"world-bank-trade-disruption-conflict","note":"World Bank, Trading Away from Conflict | NBER/World Bank, Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption | World Bank, Impacts on Global Trade of Current Trade Disputes","quote":null,"source":"World Bank","title":"World Bank trade disruption cost from conflict","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/trade/publication/trading-away-from-conflict","urls":["https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/trade/publication/trading-away-from-conflict"],"year":null},"world-warheads":{"author":"Federation of American Scientists","id":"world-warheads","note":"Federation of American Scientists, 2024, Status of World Nuclear Forces","quote":null,"source":"Federation of American Scientists","title":"World Nuclear Forces","type":"article-journal","url":"https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/","urls":["https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/"],"year":"2024"},"worldbank-gdp":{"author":"World Bank, Bureau of Economic Analysis","id":"worldbank-gdp","note":"World Bank, GDP (current US$) - United States | Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP and the Economy","quote":null,"source":"World Bank","title":"US GDP 2024 (\\$28.78 trillion)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=US","urls":["https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=US"],"year":"2024"},"worldbank-singapore-gdp":{"author":"World Bank","id":"worldbank-singapore-gdp","note":"World Bank, Singapore Data","quote":null,"source":"World Bank","title":"World Bank Singapore Economic Data","type":"article-journal","url":"https://data.worldbank.org/country/singapore","urls":["https://data.worldbank.org/country/singapore"],"year":"2024"},"yalebudgetlab2025":{"author":"Yale Budget Lab","id":"yalebudgetlab2025","note":null,"quote":null,"source":null,"title":"The Fiscal, Economic, and Distributional Effects of All U.S. Tariffs","type":"webpage","url":"https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/where-we-stand-fiscal-economic-and-distributional-effects-all-us-tariffs-enacted-2025-through-april","urls":["https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/where-we-stand-fiscal-economic-and-distributional-effects-all-us-tariffs-enacted-2025-through-april"],"year":"2025"}},"parameters":{"ADAPTABLE_TRIAL_COST_PER_PATIENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[929,1400],"conservative":null,"description":"Cost per patient in ADAPTABLE trial ($14M PCORI grant / 15,076 patients). Note: This is the direct grant cost; true cost including in-kind may be 10-40% higher.","displayName":"ADAPTABLE Trial Cost per Patient","formatted":"929 USD/patient","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"pragmatic-trials-cost-advantage","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://commonfund.nih.gov/hcscollaboratory","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/patient","value":929},"ADAPTABLE_TRIAL_TOTAL_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[14000000,20000000],"conservative":null,"description":"PCORI grant for ADAPTABLE trial (2016-2019). Note: Direct funding only; total costs including site overhead and in-kind contributions from health systems may be higher.","displayName":"ADAPTABLE Trial Total Cost","formatted":"$14.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"pragmatic-trials-cost-advantage","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://commonfund.nih.gov/hcscollaboratory","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":14000000},"ANNUAL_TERRORISM_DEATH_RISK_DENOMINATOR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/1-percent-treaty.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Annual probability of being killed by terrorism expressed as '1 in X'. 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DALYs (Disability-Adjusted Life Years) measure disease burden by combining years of life lost and years lived with disability. Bed nets prevent malaria deaths and are considered a gold standard benchmark for cost-effective global health interventions - if an intervention costs less per DALY than bed nets, it's exceptionally cost-effective. GiveWell synthesizes peer-reviewed academic research with transparent, rigorous methodology and extensive external expert review.","displayName":"Bed Nets Cost per DALY","formatted":"89 USD/DALY","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"givewell-cost-per-life-saved","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/DALY","value":89},"BULLETS_FIRED_PER_KILL_IRAQ_AFGHANISTAN":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/extinction-surplus.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Rounds of small-arms ammunition fired per insurgent killed in Iraq and Afghanistan. Based on GAO figures: ~6 billion rounds expended 2002-2005. Calculated by military researcher John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org.","displayName":"Bullets Fired per Kill (Iraq/Afghanistan)","formatted":"250,000 rounds","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"nato-556-rounds-per-kill","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://jonathanturley.org/2011/01/10/gao-u-s-has-fired-250000-rounds-for-every-insurgent-killed/","stdError":null,"unit":"rounds","value":250000},"BULLET_COST_556_NATO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/extinction-surplus.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[0.25,0.6],"conservative":null,"description":"Cost per round of 5.56x45mm NATO ammunition (military bulk procurement). Based on U.S. military procurement contracts for M855 ball ammunition. Civilian retail floor is ~$0.37; $0.40 is a conservative midpoint.","displayName":"Cost per 5.56mm NATO Round (Bulk)","formatted":"$0.4","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"nato-556-ammo-cost","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.bulkcheapammo.com/rifle-ammo/556-ammo","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":0.4},"CAREGIVER_ANNUAL_VALUE_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-disease.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual value of unpaid caregiving in US","displayName":"Total Annual Value of Unpaid Caregiving in US","formatted":"600.00B 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Used as the opportunity cost comparison: depositors are LOSING money by NOT participating in the Prize Fund.","displayName":"Conventional Retirement Return (After Fees)","formatted":"6.5%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.065},"CORPORATE_ANALOG_FALSE_CLAIMS_TREBLE_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Treble-damages multiplier from the False Claims Act, used here as the corporate-defendant analogy for audit and public-money claims in Humanity v. 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Studio audience picked the correct answer 91% of the time (Surowiecki 2004). Used as lower bound for wishocratic allocation accuracy.","displayName":"Crowd Decision Accuracy (Millionaire)","formatted":"91.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"surowiecki-2004","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://archive.org/details/wisdomofcrowds0000suro","stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.91},"CURRENT_ACTIVE_TRIALS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Current active trials at any given time (3-5 year duration)","displayName":"Current Active Trials at Any Given Time","formatted":"10,000 trials","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"clinicaltrials-gov-enrollment-data-2025","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/data-api/api","stdError":null,"unit":"trials","value":10000},"CURRENT_CLINICAL_TRIAL_PARTICIPATION_RATE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/dfda.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Current clinical trial participation rate (0.06% of population)","displayName":"Current Clinical Trial Participation Rate","formatted":"0.1%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"clinical-trial-patient-participation-rate","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.fightcancer.org/policy-resources/barriers-patient-enrollment-therapeutic-clinical-trials-cancer","stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.0006},"CURRENT_DISEASE_PATIENTS_GLOBAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/dfda.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2000000000,2800000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Global population with chronic diseases","displayName":"Global Population with Chronic Diseases","formatted":"2.40B people","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"disease-prevalence-2-billion","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/06/150608081753.htm","stdError":null,"unit":"people","value":2400000000},"CURRENT_DRUG_APPROVALS_PER_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/nih-fails-2-institute-health.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[45,60],"conservative":null,"description":"Average annual new drug approvals globally","displayName":"Average Annual New Drug Approvals Globally","formatted":"50 drugs/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"global-new-drug-approvals-50-annually","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/50-new-drugs-received-FDA/103/i2","stdError":null,"unit":"drugs/year","value":50},"CURRENT_TRIALS_PER_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2640,3960],"conservative":null,"description":"Current global clinical trials per year","displayName":"Current Global Clinical Trials per Year","formatted":"3,300 trials/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"global-clinical-trials-market-2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/04/19/2866012/0/en/Global-Clinical-Trials-Market-Research-Report-2024-An-83-16-Billion-Market-by-2030-AI-Machine-Learning-and-Blockchain-will-Transform-the-Clinical-Trials-Landscape.html","stdError":null,"unit":"trials/year","value":3300},"CURRENT_TRIAL_ABANDONMENT_RATE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Current trial abandonment rate (40% never complete)","displayName":"Current Trial Abandonment Rate","formatted":"40.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"clinical-trial-abandonment-rate","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4444136/","stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.4},"CURRENT_TRIAL_SLOTS_AVAILABLE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1500000,2300000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual global clinical trial participants (IQVIA 2022: 1.9M post-COVID normalization)","displayName":"Annual Global Clinical Trial Participants","formatted":"1.90M patients/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"global-trial-participant-capacity","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://gmdpacademy.org/news/iqvia-report-clinical-trial-subjects-number-drops-due-to-decline-in-covid-19-enrollment/","stdError":null,"unit":"patients/year","value":1900000},"DEFENSE_LOBBYING_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/faq.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[190000000,210000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual military sector lobbying spending. OpenSecrets reports the 2025 actual at $198.0 million, the top of a three-year climb: $142.9M (2023), $159.5M (2024), $198.0M (2025)","displayName":"Annual Military Sector Lobbying","formatted":"198.00M USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"lobbying-spend-defense","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.opensecrets.org/federal-lobbying/sectors/summary?id=D","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":198000000},"DEFENSE_PRIMES_MARKET_CAP_ALLIED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/loving-takeover.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Combined market capitalization of major allied European military primes (BAE Systems approx $75.8B + Thales approx $56.7B), as of June 2026","displayName":"Allied Military Primes Market Cap","formatted":"$132.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"companiesmarketcap-eu-primes-2026","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://companiesmarketcap.com/bae-systems/marketcap/","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":132000000000},"DEFENSE_PRIMES_MARKET_CAP_US":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/loving-takeover.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Combined market capitalization of the 11 major US military primes at the June 2026 close: RTX $248.1B, Boeing $174.7B, Lockheed Martin $126.5B, General Dynamics $96.9B, Northrop Grumman $78.5B, L3Harris $58.2B, Leidos $15.4B, Huntington Ingalls $11.9B, CACI $11.6B, Booz Allen Hamilton $9.2B, SAIC $4.9B","displayName":"US Military Primes Market Cap","formatted":"$836.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"stockanalysis-military-prime-caps-2026","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":836000000000},"DEFENSE_PRIMES_TRADEABLE_FLOAT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/loving-takeover.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[850000000000,900000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Tradeable float of the 13 Western military primes, approx 91% of their combined market cap. 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Thales is the outlier at approx 45% float because the French State (26.60%) and Dassault Aviation (26.59%) stakes are locked","displayName":"Military Primes Tradeable Float","formatted":"$880.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"stockanalysis-military-prime-caps-2026","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":880000000000},"DEMOCIDE_TOTAL_20TH_CENTURY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[200000000,272000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Total people murdered by governments worldwide, 1900-1999 (Rummel's democide estimate)","displayName":"20th-Century Government Democide Total","formatted":"262.00M deaths","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"rummel-death-by-government","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/NOTE1.HTM","stdError":null,"unit":"deaths","value":262000000},"DEWORMING_COST_PER_DALY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Cost per DALY for deworming programs (range $28-82, midpoint estimate). GiveWell notes this 2011 estimate is outdated and their current methodology focuses on long-term income effects rather than short-term health DALYs.","displayName":"Deworming Cost per DALY","formatted":"55 USD/DALY","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"deworming-cost-per-daly","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/deworming/cost-effectiveness","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/DALY","value":55},"DFDA_PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_COST_PER_PATIENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[97,3000],"conservative":null,"description":"Embedded pragmatic trial cost per patient. Uses ADAPTABLE trial ($929) as DELIBERATELY CONSERVATIVE central estimate. Ramsberg & Platt (2018) reviewed 108 embedded pragmatic trials; 64 with cost data had median of only $97/patient - this estimate may overstate costs by 10x. Confidence interval spans meta-analysis median to complex chronic disease trials.","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Cost per Patient","formatted":"929 USD/patient","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"pragmatic-trials-cost-advantage","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://commonfund.nih.gov/hcscollaboratory","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/patient","value":929},"DISEASE_BURDEN_GDP_DRAG_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Fraction of GDP currently lost to disease (productivity losses + medical costs diverted from productive use). $5T productivity loss + $9.9T direct medical costs = $14.9T on $115T GDP = ~13%. As diseases are progressively cured, this drag is recovered as GDP growth. 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Used by federal agencies to evaluate safety regulations and quantify the economic value of mortality risk reductions.","displayName":"DOT VSL","formatted":"$13.70M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"dot-vsl-2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/transportation-policy/revised-departmental-guidance-on-valuation-of-a-statistical-life-in-economic-analysis","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":13700000},"DRUG_DEVELOPMENT_COST_1980S":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[145500000,242500000],"conservative":null,"description":"Drug development cost in 1980s (compounded to approval, 1990 dollars)","displayName":"Drug Development Cost (1980s)","formatted":"$194.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"pre-1962-drug-costs-timeline","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://thinkbynumbers.org/health/how-many-net-lives-does-the-fda-save/","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":194000000},"DRUG_DISCOVERY_TO_APPROVAL_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[12,17],"conservative":null,"description":"Full drug development timeline from discovery to FDA approval. 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Standalone market-cost metric; not included in DALY-based welfare burden to avoid double-counting.","displayName":"Global Annual Direct Medical Costs of Disease","formatted":"9900.00B USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"disease-economic-burden-109t","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":9900000000000},"GLOBAL_DISEASE_PRODUCTIVITY_LOSS_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3500000000000,7000000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual productivity loss from disease globally (absenteeism, reduced output). Standalone market-cost metric; not included in DALY-based welfare burden to avoid double-counting.","displayName":"Global Annual Productivity Loss from Disease","formatted":"5000.00B USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"disease-economic-burden-109t","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":5000000000000},"GLOBAL_GDP_2025":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Global nominal GDP (2025 estimate). From Political Dysfunction Tax paper citing StatisticsTimes/IMF World Economic Outlook. Used for calculating global opportunity costs as percentage of world economic output. 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Maddison Project: ~$1,260 in 1990 international dollars, adjusted to 2024 USD (~2.5x).","displayName":"Global GDP per Capita in 1900","formatted":"3,150 USD/person","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"maddison-project-2020","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2020","stdError":500,"unit":"USD/person","value":3150},"GLOBAL_GOVERNMENT_CLINICAL_TRIALS_SPENDING_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3000000000,6000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual global government spending on interventional clinical trials (~5-10% of total)","displayName":"Annual Global Government Spending on Clinical Trials","formatted":"$4.50B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"global-government-clinical-trial-spending-estimate","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.appliedclinicaltrialsonline.com/view/sizing-clinical-research-market","stdError":1000000000,"unit":"USD","value":4500000000},"GLOBAL_GOVERNMENT_EXPENSE_PCT_GDP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"World general government total expense as a share of GDP, using World Bank indicator GC.XPN.TOTL.GD.ZS. The most recent world aggregate in the cited source is 2021.","displayName":"Global Government Expense Share of GDP","formatted":"31.8%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"world-bank-government-expense-pct-gdp","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GC.XPN.TOTL.GD.ZS?locations=1W","stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.3178},"GLOBAL_HALE_CURRENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[60.81999268845462,65.80343543325759],"conservative":null,"description":"Global healthy life expectancy at birth (HALE) from WHO Global Health Observatory, 2019 data (most recent available). HALE measures years lived in full health, adjusting for years lived with disability or disease.","displayName":"Global Healthy Life Expectancy (HALE)","formatted":"63.3 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"who-global-health-estimates-2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates","stdError":1.5,"unit":"years","value":63.3},"GLOBAL_HOUSEHOLD_WEALTH_USD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/incentive-alignment-bonds-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Total global household wealth (2022/2023 estimate)","displayName":"Global Household Wealth","formatted":"$454.00T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"cs-global-wealth-report-2023","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.ubs.com/global/en/family-office-uhnw/reports/global-wealth-report-2023.html","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":454000000000000},"GLOBAL_INVESTABLE_ASSETS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Total global financial wealth (2024): equities, bonds, cash/deposits, and investment funds. Excludes real estate and physical assets. This is the addressable capital pool for Prize deposits.","displayName":"Global Investable Financial Assets","formatted":"$305.00T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":305000000000000},"GLOBAL_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_2024":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[70.07635756619386,76.64311937134995],"conservative":null,"description":"Global life expectancy at birth (2024), WHO global figure. Was previously set to 79 (developed-country treatment access), which the adversarial review flagged: a measured external parameter must carry the measured value; access optimism belongs in explicit forward-looking parameters, not in a present-day data point.","displayName":"Global Life Expectancy (2024)","formatted":"73.4 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"who-global-health-estimates-2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates","stdError":2,"unit":"years","value":73.4},"GLOBAL_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_REMAINING_AT_AGE_60":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[19.6,22],"conservative":null,"description":"Additional years a person alive at age 60 can expect to live, global both-sexes (WHO life tables: 21.0 years in 2019; 19.6 in COVID-depressed 2021). This is CONDITIONAL remaining life expectancy, not life-expectancy-at-birth minus age: at-birth figures carry child mortality that someone who reached 60 already survived, so subtracting an age from them understates remaining years by roughly 40% at this age. Used for years-of-life-lost per efficacy-lag death. The GBD reference life table would give more (~23 years at 60); WHO period tables are the lower of the two standard choices.","displayName":"Remaining Life Expectancy at Age 60 (Global)","formatted":"21 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"who-gho-life-expectancy-age-60-2021","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/indicators/indicator-details/GHO/life-expectancy-at-age-60-(years)","stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":21},"GLOBAL_MEDIAN_AGE_2024":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Global median age in 2024 from UN World Population Prospects 2024 revision.","displayName":"Global Median Age (2024)","formatted":"30.5 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"global-median-age-un-wpp-2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://population.un.org/wpp","stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":30.5},"GLOBAL_MED_RESEARCH_SPENDING":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[54000000000,81000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Global government medical research spending","displayName":"Global Government Medical Research Spending","formatted":"$67.50B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"global-gov-med-research-spending","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/what-we-do/budget","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":67500000000},"GLOBAL_MILITARY_SPENDING_ANNUAL_2005":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/1-percent-treaty.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Global military spending in 2005, constant 2023 USD (SIPRI World total). Used as the 20-year reference point for computing the long-horizon real CAGR.","displayName":"Global Military Spending in 2005 (Constant 2023 USD)","formatted":"$1.62T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"sipri-milex-2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2024","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1621800000000},"GLOBAL_MILITARY_SPENDING_ANNUAL_2024":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Global military spending in 2024","displayName":"Global Military Spending in 2024","formatted":"$2.72T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"global-military-spending","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2024","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":2720000000000},"GLOBAL_MILITARY_SPENDING_REAL_CAGR_10YR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Real compound annual growth rate of global military spending over the last decade (2014-2024). SIPRI reports 10 consecutive annual increases, with 2024 up 9.4% in real terms. The 10-year CAGR is approximately 3.4% real.","displayName":"Military Spending Real CAGR (10-Year)","formatted":"3.4%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"sipri-milex-2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2024","stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.034},"GLOBAL_NONPROFIT_CLINICAL_TRIALS_SPENDING_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2000000000,5000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual global nonprofit spending on clinical trials (foundations, disease advocacy groups)","displayName":"Annual Global Nonprofit Spending on Clinical Trials","formatted":"$3.50B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"nonprofit-clinical-trial-spending-estimate","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":3500000000},"GLOBAL_NUCLEAR_WEAPONS_SPENDING":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/extinction-surplus.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Annual global spending on nuclear weapons across all nine nuclear-armed states. US: $51.5B, China: $11.8B, UK: $8.1B, Russia: $8.3B, France: $6.8B, India: ~$2.7B, Israel: ~$1.2B, Pakistan: ~$1.1B, North Korea: ~$0.7B.","displayName":"Global Nuclear Weapons Spending","formatted":"$92.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"global-nuclear-weapon-maintenance-100b","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.icanw.org/global_spending_on_nuclear_weapons_topped_100_billion_in_2024","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":92000000000},"GLOBAL_PHARMA_RD_SPENDING_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Total global pharmaceutical R&D spending ($300B annually, clinical trials represent 15-20% of this total)","displayName":"Annual Global Pharmaceutical R&D Spending","formatted":"$300.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"global-pharma-rd-spending-300b","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":300000000000},"GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/dih.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[7800000000,8200000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Global population in 2024","displayName":"Global Population in 2024","formatted":"8.00B of people","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"global-population-8-billion","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-reach-8-billion-15-november-2022","stdError":null,"unit":"of people","value":8000000000},"GLOBAL_POPULATION_2040_PROJECTED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"UN World Population Prospects 2022 median projection for 2040. Interpolated midpoint between ~8.1B (2025) and 9.2B (2045).","displayName":"Global Population 2040 (Projected)","formatted":"8.90B of people","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"global-population-8-billion","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-reach-8-billion-15-november-2022","stdError":null,"unit":"of people","value":8900000000},"GLOBAL_POPULATION_2045_PROJECTED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"UN World Population Prospects 2022 median projection for 2045.","displayName":"Global Population 2045 (Projected)","formatted":"9.20B of people","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"global-population-8-billion","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-reach-8-billion-15-november-2022","stdError":null,"unit":"of people","value":9200000000},"GLOBAL_POPULATION_ACTIVISM_THRESHOLD_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/global-referendum.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.01,0.1],"conservative":null,"description":"Critical mass threshold for social change (3.5% rule). Chenoweth studied national regime changes; applying to a global treaty adds uncertainty. Lower bound: some movements succeeded at ~1%. Upper bound: entrenched defense-industry opposition and weaker signal from digital signatures vs sustained protest may require up to 10%.","displayName":"Critical Mass Threshold for Social Change","formatted":"3.5%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"3-5-rule","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/carr/publications/35-rule-how-small-minority-can-change-world","stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.035},"GLOBAL_REGISTERED_VOTERS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/global-referendum.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Best current register-based estimate of the number of registered voters worldwide, calculated by summing the latest available country-level electoral-roll counts in International IDEA's Voter Turnout Database export. Used as the verified-human headcount proxy for the majority-of-humanity coordination target.","displayName":"Global Registered Voters","formatted":"4.13B of people","formula":null,"latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{voters,global} \\\\\n= 4{,}128{,}142{,}495 \\\\\n\\approx 4.13B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"international-idea-voter-turnout-database-2026","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.idea.int/data-tools/export?type=region_only&themeId=293&world=all&loc=home","stdError":null,"unit":"of people","value":4128142495},"GLOBAL_RETIREMENT_ASSETS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/earth-optimization-prize-treasury.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Total global pension and retirement assets (OECD 2024). This is the capital pool that the Prize Fund competes with and could partially absorb.","displayName":"Global Retirement Assets","formatted":"$70.00T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":70000000000000},"GLOBAL_SAVINGS_RATE_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.24,0.3],"conservative":null,"description":"Global gross savings as share of GDP (World Bank, ~27% average 2023-2024)","displayName":"Global Gross Savings Rate","formatted":"27.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"world-bank-gross-savings-2023","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNS.ICTR.ZS?locations=1W","stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.27},"GLOBAL_SYMPTOMATIC_DISEASE_TREATMENT_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[6500000000000,10000000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual global spending on symptomatic disease treatment","displayName":"Annual Global Spending on Symptomatic Disease Treatment","formatted":"8200.00B USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"disease-economic-burden-109t","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":8200000000000},"GLOBAL_WARHEAD_COUNT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/extinction-surplus.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Total global nuclear warhead inventory across nine nuclear-armed states. Includes deployed, reserve, and retired warheads awaiting dismantlement.","displayName":"Global Nuclear Warhead Count","formatted":"12,241 warheads","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"world-warheads","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/","stdError":null,"unit":"warheads","value":12241},"GLOBAL_YLD_PROPORTION_OF_DALYS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.33994915304252754,0.4394859756318045],"conservative":null,"description":"Proportion of global DALYs that are YLD (years lived with disability) vs YLL (years of life lost). From GBD 2021: 1.13B YLD out of 2.88B total DALYs = 39%.","displayName":"YLD Proportion of Total DALYs","formatted":"0.39 proportion","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"ihme-gbd-2021","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/","stdError":0.03,"unit":"proportion","value":0.39},"GOV_CONTROLLING_SECTORS_TOP5_MARKET_CAP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/loving-takeover.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[15000000000000,18000000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Combined market capitalization of the top-5 US public lobbying spenders in each of the four other government-controlling sectors: pharmaceuticals $1.79T, technology $13.28T, insurance $0.39T, oil and gas $1.25T. Caveats: Meta (Zuckerberg 60.8% voting) and Alphabet (Page and Brin 52.3%) cannot be majority-acquired; Ellison owns 40.6% of Oracle; the largest insurance lobbyists are mutuals with no shares; trade associations (PhRMA, AHIP, SIFMA, API) are not acquirable","displayName":"Government-Controlling Sectors Top-5 Market Cap","formatted":"$16.71T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"opensecrets-top-lobbying-industries-2025","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.opensecrets.org/federal-lobbying/industries?cycle=2025","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":16710000000000},"HOME_BIAS_ALPHA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/earth-optimization-prize-treasury.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.003,0.015],"conservative":null,"description":"Return drag from home bias in fragmented national pension systems. 70+ countries each overweight domestic assets, missing global diversification. 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Source: FEC Statistical Summary 2024.","displayName":"US Federal Campaign Spending (2024)","formatted":"$20.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"fec-2024-summary","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/updates/statistical-summary-of-24-month-campaign-activity-of-the-2023-2024-election-cycle/","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":20000000000},"US_TOTAL_LOBBYING_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/algorithmic-public-administration-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3740000000,5060000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Total US federal lobbying expenditure in 2024 (record year). Source: OpenSecrets.","displayName":"US Total Lobbying (2024)","formatted":"$4.40B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"opensecrets-lobbying-2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2025/02/federal-lobbying-set-new-record-in-2024/","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":4400000000},"US_VOTE_DECISIVE_PROBABILITY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/unrepresentative-democracy.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Probability of a single vote being decisive in a US presidential election. Gelman, Silver, and Edlin (2012) estimate roughly 1 in 60 million on average, varying by state from 1 in 10 million (swing states) to 1 in 1 billion (safe states).","displayName":"Probability of Decisive Vote (US)","formatted":"1 in 60M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"odds-of-decisive-vote","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://sites.stat.columbia.edu/gelman/research/published/probdecisive2.pdf","stdError":null,"unit":"probability","value":1.6666666666666667e-8},"VALLEY_OF_DEATH_ATTRITION_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[0.25,0.55],"conservative":null,"description":"Percentage of promising Phase 1-passed compounds abandoned primarily due to Phase 2/3 cost barriers (not scientific failure). Conservative estimate: many rare disease, natural compound, and low-margin drugs never tested.","displayName":"Valley of Death Attrition Rate","formatted":"40.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"valley-of-death-attrition","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3324971/","stdError":null,"unit":"percentage","value":0.4},"VALUE_OF_STATISTICAL_LIFE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[5000000,15000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Value of Statistical Life (conservative estimate)","displayName":"Value of Statistical Life","formatted":"$10.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"dot-vsl-13-6m","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/transportation-policy/revised-departmental-guidance-on-valuation-of-a-statistical-life-in-economic-analysis","stdError":3000000,"unit":"USD","value":10000000},"VENTURE_GROSS_RETURN":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/earth-optimization-prize-treasury.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.13,0.22],"conservative":null,"description":"Venture capital / private equity gross return (before 2-and-20 fees). Cambridge Associates US VC index 25-year pooled gross IRR. The Prize Fund charges zero fees, so gross return is the correct baseline. Lockup premium is already embedded: VC/PE IS illiquid.","displayName":"Venture Capital Gross Return","formatted":"17.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.17},"VITAMIN_A_COST_PER_DALY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Cost per DALY for vitamin A supplementation programs (India: $23-50; Africa: $40-255; wide variation by region and baseline VAD prevalence). Using India midpoint as conservative estimate.","displayName":"Vitamin A Supplementation Cost per DALY","formatted":"37 USD/DALY","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"vitamin-a-cost-per-daly","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0012046","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/DALY","value":37},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_1900_FREEZE_BASELINE_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[50000000000,90000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Global military spending in 1900 in constant 2023 USD, from the Correlates of War National Material Capabilities (NMC) dataset (knowledge/data/global-military-spending-1900-2024-constant-2023-usd.csv, COW_NMC source). Used as the annual real spending cap in the 1900-freeze counterfactual.","displayName":"1900 Military Spending Freeze Baseline","formatted":"66.10B USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"correlates-of-war-nmc","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/national-material-capabilities/","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":66100000000},"WATER_FLUORIDATION_ANNUAL_BENEFIT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Estimated annual global economic benefit from water fluoridation programs","displayName":"Estimated Annual Global Economic Benefit from Water Fluoridation Programs","formatted":"800.00M USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"clean-water-sanitation-roi","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://news.un.org/en/story/2014/11/484032","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":800000000},"WATER_FLUORIDATION_ROI":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Return on investment from water fluoridation programs","displayName":"Return on Investment from Water Fluoridation Programs","formatted":"23 ratio","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"clean-water-sanitation-roi","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://news.un.org/en/story/2014/11/484032","stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":23},"WHO_QALY_THRESHOLD_COST_EFFECTIVE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Cost-effectiveness threshold widely used in US health economics ($50,000/QALY, from 1980s dialysis costs)","displayName":"Cost-Effectiveness Threshold ($50,000/QALY)","formatted":"50,000 USD/QALY","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"who-cost-effectiveness-threshold","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5193154/","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/QALY","value":50000},"WORKFORCE_WITH_PRODUCTIVITY_LOSS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-disease.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Percentage of workforce experiencing productivity loss from chronic illness (28%)","displayName":"Percentage of Workforce Experiencing Productivity Loss from Chronic Illness","formatted":"28.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"chronic-illness-workforce-productivity-loss","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.ibiweb.org/resources/chronic-conditions-in-the-us-workforce-prevalence-trends-and-productivity-impacts","stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.28},"ADDITIONAL_DRUGS_FROM_COST_ELIMINATION":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[13.070666318568255,27.466007495286444],"conservative":null,"description":"Additional drug approvals per year when Phase 2/3 cost barrier eliminated. Assumes valley-of-death compounds (abandoned due to cost) would have similar success rate to funded compounds.","displayName":"Additional Drug Approvals from Cost Elimination","formatted":"20 drugs/year","formula":"CURRENT_APPROVALS × VALLEY_OF_DEATH_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDrugs_{new} \\\\\n= Drugs_{ann,curr} \\times Attrition_{valley} \\\\\n= 50 \\times 40\\% \\\\\n= 20\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"drugs/year","value":20},"AI_DIPLOMATIC_CORPS_ANNUAL_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/department-of-peace.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[829434.8570727136,29444832.407966193],"conservative":null,"description":"Bottom-up annual cost of the AI diplomatic corps: negotiator agents for every government, running every hour of the year, at blended frontier inference prices. Uncertainty propagates from the component distributions via Monte Carlo.","displayName":"AI Diplomatic Corps Annual Cost","formatted":"$8.54M","formula":"GOVERNMENTS × AGENTS_PER_GOVERNMENT × 8760 hours × COST_PER_AGENT_HOUR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{ann} \\\\\n= N_{leader} \\times Ai \\times Cost_{per} \\times 8760 \\\\\n= 195 \\times 10 \\times \\$0.5 \\times 8760 \\\\\n= \\$8.54M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":8541000},"APOCALYPSE_MARKUP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/extinction-surplus.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"The Apocalypse Markup: total military spending beyond the Price of Apocalypse. The amount governments spend above what is needed to trigger nuclear winter and end civilization once.","displayName":"Apocalypse Markup","formatted":"$2.72T","formula":"GLOBAL_MILITARY_SPENDING_ANNUAL_2024 - PRICE_OF_APOCALYPSE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nM_{apocalypse} = Spending_{mil} - P_{apocalypse} = \\$2.72T - \\$752M = \\$2.72T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } P_{apocalypse} = \\frac{S_{nuke}}{Overkill_{winter}} = \\frac{\\$92B}{122} = \\$752M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Overkill_{winter} = \\frac{W_{global}}{W_{winter}} = \\frac{12{,}200}{100} = 122\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":2719248427416.0605},"APOCALYPSE_MARKUP_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/extinction-surplus.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[1258.6489497229195,5859.786529997165],"conservative":null,"description":"How many times total military spending exceeds the Price of Apocalypse. The markup multiplier on the cost of ending civilization.","displayName":"Apocalypse Markup Multiplier","formatted":"3,619.078 x","formula":"GLOBAL_MILITARY_SPENDING_ANNUAL_2024 / PRICE_OF_APOCALYPSE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nM_{apocalypse,x} = \\frac{Spending_{mil}}{P_{apocalypse}} = \\frac{\\$2.72T}{\\$752M} = 3{,}620\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } P_{apocalypse} = \\frac{S_{nuke}}{Overkill_{winter}} = \\frac{\\$92B}{122} = \\$752M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Overkill_{winter} = \\frac{W_{global}}{W_{winter}} = \\frac{12{,}200}{100} = 122\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":3619.078260869565},"AUTOMATED_REVENUE_SERVICE_ANNUAL_OPEX":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/automated-revenue-service.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[50000000,364641188.53458035],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual operating cost of the Automated Revenue Service: design transaction volume times the all-in comparator-anchored cost per settlement. Uncertainty propagates from the component distributions via Monte Carlo.","displayName":"Automated Revenue Service Annual Operating Cost","formatted":"$150.00M","formula":"TRANSACTIONS × ALL_IN_COST_PER_TRANSACTION","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{opex,ann} \\\\\n= Automated_{annual} \\times Cost_{all} \\\\\n= 500B \\times \\$0.0003 \\\\\n= \\$150M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":150000000},"AUTOMATED_REVENUE_SERVICE_SAVINGS_PER_AMERICAN_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/automated-revenue-service.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1418.398731450049,1917.2332431165862],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual savings per American from replacing the IRS and the tax-compliance burden with the Automated Revenue Service, net of the padded replacement budget.","displayName":"Automated Revenue Service Annual Savings per American","formatted":"$1.67K","formula":"(TAX_COMPLIANCE_BURDEN + IRS_BUDGET − ARS_BUDGET) / US_POPULATION","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{ann} = (\\text{TAX\\_COMPLIANCE\\_BURDEN} + \\text{IRS\\_BUDGET} − \\text{ARS\\_BUDGET}) / \\text{US\\_POPULATION}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{opex,ann} = Automated_{annual} \\times Cost_{all} = 500B \\times \\$0.0003 = \\$150M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1666.1791044776119},"BEST_PRACTICE_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_GAIN":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[7.456880628650036,14.023642433806133],"conservative":null,"description":"Gap between current global life expectancy and the best life expectancy achieved by a major country today. Used as a non-arbitrary governance/public-health uplift benchmark rather than capping Wishonia at today's global average.","displayName":"Best-Practice Life Expectancy Gain","formatted":"10.699999999999989 years","formula":"max(SWITZERLAND_LIFE_EXPECTANCY, SINGAPORE_LIFE_EXPECTANCY) - GLOBAL_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\Delta LE_{best} \\\\\n= \\max\\left(LE_{CH}, LE_{SG}\\right) - LE_{global}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":10.699999999999989},"BULLETS_PER_PERSON_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/extinction-surplus.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[583.5669497340577,1270.8061967355488],"conservative":null,"description":"Number of bullets per person on Earth that could be purchased annually with the global military budget. A purchasing power metric illustrating the scale of military spending.","displayName":"Bullets Purchasable Per Person Per Year","formatted":"850 rounds/person/year","formula":"GLOBAL_BULLETS_PURCHASABLE_ANNUAL / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nn_{bullets/person} = \\frac{N_{bullets,yr}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{6.8T}{8B} = 850\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{bullets,yr} = \\frac{Spending_{mil}}{c_{bullet}} = \\frac{\\$2.72T}{\\$0.4} = 6.8T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rounds/person/year","value":850},"CELL_THERAPY_DISEASE_COMBINATIONS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[314340.2877407204,827736.924374607],"conservative":null,"description":"Cell therapy approach-disease combinations","displayName":"Cell Therapy Combinations","formatted":"500,000 combinations","formula":"CELL_APPROACHES × DISEASES","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCombos_{cell} \\\\\n= N_{cell} \\times N_{diseases,trial} \\\\\n= 500 \\times 1{,}000 \\\\\n= 500{,}000\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"combinations","value":500000},"CHAIN_ENGAGE_PROBABILITY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/recruitment-and-propaganda-plan.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.03918652791994644,0.18181839099166636],"conservative":null,"description":"Probability someone engages with the idea (1 - dismissal rate)","displayName":"Engagement Rate","formatted":"10.0%","formula":"1 - CHAIN_DISMISS_PROBABILITY","latex":"P_{engage} = 1 - P_{dismiss} = 1 - 90\\% = 10\\%","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.09999999999999998},"CHAIN_EXPECTED_ENGAGED_IMPLEMENTERS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.12018096977249705,12.288337984109111],"conservative":null,"description":"Expected number of implementers who engage (orbit reached x engagement rate x implementer count)","displayName":"Expected Engaged Implementers","formatted":"3.478910443764937 people","formula":"P_reach x CHAIN_ENGAGE_PROBABILITY x CHAIN_IMPLEMENTER_COUNT","latex":"E[N_{engaged}] = P_{reach} \\times P_{engage} \\times N_{impl}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"people","value":3.478910443764937},"CHAIN_IMPLEMENTER_COUNT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Total potential implementers (billionaires + world leaders)","displayName":"Potential Implementers","formatted":"2,976 people","formula":"CHAIN_GLOBAL_BILLIONAIRE_COUNT + CHAIN_WORLD_LEADER_COUNT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{impl} \\\\\n= N_{billionaire} + N_{leader} \\\\\n= 2{,}780 + 195 \\\\\n= 2{,}980\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"people","value":2976},"CHAIN_P_AT_LEAST_ONE_ENGAGES":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.11324220518268487,0.9999955105369664],"conservative":null,"description":"Probability at least one implementer engages (information diffusion only; dominant strategy proof handles action)","displayName":"P(At Least One Engages)","formatted":"96.9%","formula":"1 - CHAIN_P_NO_IMPLEMENTER_ENGAGES","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nP_{reach} = 1 - P_{none} = 1 - 3.08\\% = 96.9\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } P_{none} = \\left(1 - P_{reach} \\cdot P_{engage}\\right)^{N_{impl}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } P_{engage} = 1 - P_{dismiss} = 1 - 90\\% = 10\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{impl} = N_{billionaire} + N_{leader} = 2{,}780 + 195 = 2{,}980\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.9692217015578317},"CHAIN_P_ENCOUNTER_DIRECT_10YR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.00048462410731555663,0.041446323970525646],"conservative":null,"description":"Probability a given implementer's information orbit is reached by the content cascade","displayName":"Implementer Orbit Reach Probability","formatted":"1.2%","formula":"1 - (1 - CHAIN_IMPLEMENTER_ORBIT_SIZE / 5B)^(CHAIN_INITIAL_AUDIENCE x cascade_multiplier)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nP_{reach} \\\\\n= 1 - \\left(1 - \\frac{O_{impl}}{N}\\right)^{N_0 \\cdot \\sum_{i=0}^{3} R_{eff}^i}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.011689887243833796},"CHAIN_P_NO_IMPLEMENTER_ENGAGES":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.0000044894630335827985,0.886757794817315],"conservative":null,"description":"Probability that NO implementer engages (all orbits missed or all dismiss)","displayName":"P(No Implementer Engages)","formatted":"3.1%","formula":"(1 - P_reach x CHAIN_ENGAGE_PROBABILITY)^CHAIN_IMPLEMENTER_COUNT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nP_{none} \\\\\n= \\left(1 - P_{reach} \\cdot P_{engage}\\right)^{N_{impl}}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.030778298442168252},"CHRONIC_DISEASE_TREATED_PATIENTS_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[830530629.0276641,1150660527.8654659],"conservative":null,"description":"Estimated unique patients receiving chronic disease treatment annually. Derived from IQVIA days of therapy (1.28T) divided by 365 days divided by 2.5 average medications per patient times 70% post-1962 drugs.","displayName":"Annual Chronic Disease Patients Treated","formatted":"981.92M people","formula":"GLOBAL_CHRONIC_THERAPY_DAYS ÷ 365 ÷ 2.5 × 0.70","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{treated} \\\\\n= DOT_{chronic} \\times 0.000767 \\\\\n= 1.28T \\times 0.000767 \\\\\n= 982M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"iqvia-global-medicines-2024","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://www.iqvia.com/insights/the-iqvia-institute/reports-and-publications/reports/the-global-use-of-medicines-2024-outlook-to-2028","stdError":null,"unit":"people","value":981917808.2191781},"CLINICAL_TRIAL_COST_PER_APPROVED_DRUG":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[944326168.5772825,1537437739.009429],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual clinical trial spending per approved drug (trials only, excluding other R&D costs like discovery, preclinical, manufacturing)","displayName":"Clinical Trial Cost Per Approved Drug","formatted":"$1.20B","formula":"TOTAL_TRIAL_SPENDING / NEW_DRUGS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{trial,drug} \\\\\n= \\frac{Spending_{trials}}{Drugs_{ann,curr}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$60B}{50} \\\\\n= \\$1.2B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1200000000},"CLINICAL_TRIAL_COST_PER_PARTICIPANT_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[24255.983543883547,42052.743108122886],"conservative":null,"description":"Average annual cost per clinical trial participant (total spending ÷ participants)","displayName":"Annual Cost Per Clinical Trial Participant","formatted":"$31.58K","formula":"TOTAL_SPENDING / PARTICIPANTS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{trial,pt,ann} \\\\\n= \\frac{Spending_{trials}}{Slots_{curr}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$60B}{1.9M} \\\\\n= \\$31.6K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":31578.947368421053},"COMBINATION_THERAPY_DISEASE_SPACE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[24979567160.576622,72641695336.53656],"conservative":null,"description":"Total combination therapy space (pairwise drug combinations × diseases). Standard in oncology, HIV, cardiology.","displayName":"Combination Therapy Space","formatted":"45.12B combinations","formula":"DRUG_PAIRS × DISEASES","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSpace_{combo} = N_{combo} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 45.1M \\times 1{,}000 = 45.1B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{combo} = \\frac{N_{safe} \\cdot (N_{safe} - 1)}{2}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"combinations","value":45120250000},"COMBINATION_THERAPY_PAIRS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[26208269.463346966,68906476.46762912],"conservative":null,"description":"Unique pairwise drug combinations from known safe compounds (n choose 2)","displayName":"Pairwise Drug Combinations","formatted":"45.12M combinations","formula":"SAFE_COMPOUNDS_COUNT × (SAFE_COMPOUNDS_COUNT - 1) ÷ 2","latex":"N_{combo} = \\frac{N_{safe} \\cdot (N_{safe} - 1)}{2}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"combinations","value":45120250},"CONTRIBUTION_DALYS_PER_PCT_POINT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3094178391.065174,10843984429.175596],"conservative":null,"description":"DALYs averted per percentage point of implementation probability shift. One percent of total DALYs from eliminating trial capacity bottleneck and efficacy lag.","displayName":"DALYs Averted per Percentage Point","formatted":"5.65B DALYs","formula":"TOTAL_TIMELINE_SHIFT_DALYS × 0.01","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDALYs_{pp} = DALYs_{max} \\times 0.01 = 565B \\times 0.01 = 5.65B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"DALYs","value":5652436733.509989},"CONTRIBUTION_EV_PER_PCT_POINT_TREATY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2217.0282258384545,8609.297648531914],"conservative":null,"description":"Personal expected value per percentage point of implementation probability shift under Treaty Trajectory. One percent of the per-capita lifetime income gain.","displayName":"Contribution EV per Percentage Point (Treaty)","formatted":"$5.19K","formula":"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_LIFETIME_INCOME_GAIN_PER_CAPITA × 0.01","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nEV_{pp,treaty} = \\Delta Y_{lifetime,treaty} \\times 0.01 = \\$519K \\times 0.01 = \\$5.19K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta Y_{lifetime,treaty} = Y_{cum,treaty} - Y_{cum,earth} = \\$1.42M - \\$904K = \\$519K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,treaty} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,treaty})((1+g_{pc,treaty})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,treaty}} + \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$322T}{9.2B} = \\$35K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} = s_{ratchet} \\times 0.409 = 10\\% \\times 0.409 = 5.8\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease})^{\\frac{1}{H_{health,treaty}}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 8 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{remaining} = LE_{global} - Age_{median} = 73.4 - 30.5 = 42.9\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,earth} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":5188.787768822889},"CONTRIBUTION_EV_PER_PCT_POINT_TREATY_BLEND":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[12865.564589105727,49121.84646547883],"conservative":null,"description":"Blended personal expected value per percentage point of implementation probability shift under Treaty Trajectory.","displayName":"Contribution EV per Percentage Point (Treaty, Blended)","formatted":"$29.34K","formula":"TREATY_PERSONAL_UPSIDE_BLEND × 0.01","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nEV_{pp,treaty,blend} = Upside_{blend,treaty} \\times 0.01 = \\$2.93M \\times 0.01 = \\$29.3K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Upside_{blend,treaty} = \\Delta Y_{lifetime,treaty} + Value_{HALE,treaty} = \\$519K + \\$2.42M = \\$2.93M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta Y_{lifetime,treaty} = Y_{cum,treaty} - Y_{cum,earth} = \\$1.42M - \\$904K = \\$519K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,treaty} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,treaty})((1+g_{pc,treaty})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,treaty}} + \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$322T}{9.2B} = \\$35K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} = s_{ratchet} \\times 0.409 = 10\\% \\times 0.409 = 5.8\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease})^{\\frac{1}{H_{health,treaty}}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 8 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{remaining} = LE_{global} - Age_{median} = 73.4 - 30.5 = 42.9\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,earth} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Value_{HALE,treaty} = \\Delta HALE_{treaty,15} \\times Value_{QALY} = 16.1 \\times \\$150K = \\$2.42M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{treaty,15} = f_{cure,15,treaty} \\times \\Delta_{HALE} + \\Delta HALE_{treaty,longevity,15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{treaty,longevity,15} = T_{extend} \\times \\rho_{HALE,15} \\times f_{cure,15,treaty} = 20 \\times 30\\% \\times 100\\% = 6\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":29338.787768822905},"CONTRIBUTION_EV_PER_PCT_POINT_WISHONIA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[134597.09067458726,969785.2136720506],"conservative":null,"description":"Personal expected value per percentage point of implementation probability shift under Wishonia Trajectory. One percent of the per-capita lifetime income gain.","displayName":"Contribution EV per Percentage Point (Wishonia)","formatted":"$364.45K","formula":"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_LIFETIME_INCOME_GAIN_PER_CAPITA × 0.01","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nEV_{pp,wish} = \\Delta Y_{lifetime,wish} \\times 0.01 = \\$36.4M \\times 0.01 = \\$364K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta Y_{lifetime,wish} = Y_{cum,wish} - Y_{cum,earth} = \\$37.3M - \\$904K = \\$36.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,wish} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,wish})((1+g_{pc,wish})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,wish}} + \\bar{y}_{wish,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{wish,20} = \\frac{GDP_{wish,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$10700T}{9.2B} = \\$1.16M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{wish,20}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{17}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{20}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{remaining} = LE_{global} - Age_{median} = 73.4 - 30.5 = 42.9\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,earth} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":364453.79709081916},"CONTRIBUTION_EV_PER_PCT_POINT_WISHONIA_BLEND":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[172760.92959121088,1011219.739637052],"conservative":null,"description":"Blended personal expected value per percentage point of implementation probability shift under Wishonia Trajectory.","displayName":"Contribution EV per Percentage Point (Wishonia, Blended)","formatted":"$404.65K","formula":"WISHONIA_PERSONAL_UPSIDE_BLEND × 0.01","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nEV_{pp,wish,blend} = Upside_{blend,wish} \\times 0.01 = \\$40.5M \\times 0.01 = \\$405K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Upside_{blend,wish} = \\Delta Y_{lifetime,wish} + Value_{HALE,wish} = \\$36.4M + \\$4.02M = \\$40.5M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta Y_{lifetime,wish} = Y_{cum,wish} - Y_{cum,earth} = \\$37.3M - \\$904K = \\$36.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,wish} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,wish})((1+g_{pc,wish})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,wish}} + \\bar{y}_{wish,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{wish,20} = \\frac{GDP_{wish,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$10700T}{9.2B} = \\$1.16M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{wish,20}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{17}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{20}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{remaining} = LE_{global} - Age_{median} = 73.4 - 30.5 = 42.9\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,earth} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Value_{HALE,wish} = \\Delta HALE_{wish,15} \\times Value_{QALY} = 26.8 \\times \\$150K = \\$4.02M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{wish,15} = f_{cure,15,wish} \\times \\Delta_{HALE} + \\Delta HALE_{wish,extra,15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{15}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{wish,extra,15} = f_{cure,15,wish} \\times (\\Delta LE_{best} + T_{extend} \\times \\rho_{HALE,15})\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta LE_{best} = \\max\\left(LE_{CH}, LE_{SG}\\right) - LE_{global}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":404653.79709081916},"CONTRIBUTION_LIVES_SAVED_PER_PCT_POINT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[62356964.26716688,203129820.88986674],"conservative":null,"description":"Lives saved per percentage point of implementation probability shift. One percent of total lives saved from eliminating trial capacity bottleneck and efficacy lag.","displayName":"Lives Saved per Percentage Point","formatted":"107.46M lives","formula":"TOTAL_TIMELINE_SHIFT_LIVES_SAVED × 0.01","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nLives_{pp} = Lives_{max} \\times 0.01 = 10.7B \\times 0.01 = 107M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{max} = Deaths_{disease,daily} \\times T_{accel,max} \\times 338 = 150{,}000 \\times 212 \\times 338 = 10.7B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"lives","value":107455177.4859972},"CONTRIBUTION_SUFFERING_HOURS_PER_PCT_POINT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[10374130316399.514,37452149449848.69],"conservative":null,"description":"Suffering hours prevented per percentage point of implementation probability shift. One percent of total suffering hours from eliminating trial capacity bottleneck and efficacy lag.","displayName":"Suffering Hours Prevented per Percentage Point","formatted":"19310.98B hours","formula":"TOTAL_TIMELINE_SHIFT_SUFFERING_HOURS × 0.01","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nHours_{pp} = Hours_{suffer,max} \\times 0.01 = 1930T \\times 0.01 = 19.3T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Hours_{suffer,max} = DALYs_{max} \\times Pct_{YLD} \\times 8760 = 565B \\times 0.39 \\times 8760 = 1930T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"hours","value":19310984856363.527},"CONVENTIONAL_RETIREMENT_HORIZON_MULTIPLE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/earth-optimization-prize-treasury.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2.152667250419853,3.070741122892158],"conservative":null,"description":"Compound multiple for conventional retirement investing over the prize pool resolution horizon (tied to the destructive economy 50% threshold year).","displayName":"Conventional Retirement Horizon Multiple","formatted":"2.5718410065633592 x","formula":"(1 + CONVENTIONAL_RETIREMENT_RETURN) ^ (DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_50PCT_YEAR - DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_BASE_YEAR)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nM_{retire} = (1 + r_{retire})^{Y_{50\\%} - Y_0}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{50\\%} = Y_0 + \\frac{\\ln\\left(0.50 / \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_PCT\\_GDP}\\right)}{\\ln\\left(1 + \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_GROWTH} - \\text{GDP\\_GROWTH}\\right)}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{destruct:GDP} = \\frac{Cost_{destruct}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$13.2T}{\\$115T} = 11.5\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{destruct} = Spending_{mil} + Cost_{cyber} = \\$2.72T + \\$10.5T = \\$13.2T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":2.5718410065633592},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_DRUGS_NEVER_DEVELOPED_VSL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1704220826717851.2,4500000000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Corporate-defendant wrongful-death valuation for the aggressive prosecutor estimate of deaths from drugs never developed.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Drugs Never Developed VSL","formatted":"$3000.00T","formula":"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_DRUGS_NEVER_DEVELOPED_DEATHS * VALUE_OF_STATISTICAL_LIFE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nV_{neverdev,VSL} \\\\\n= Deaths_{neverdev} \\times VSL \\\\\n= 300M \\times \\$10M \\\\\n= \\$3000T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":3000000000000000},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_EFFICACY_LAG_DEATHS_VSL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[404756226543858.8,1888123493973966.8],"conservative":null,"description":"Corporate-defendant wrongful-death valuation for existing-drug efficacy-lag deaths using the standard value of a statistical life.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Efficacy Lag Deaths VSL","formatted":"$1016.12T","formula":"EXISTING_DRUGS_EFFICACY_LAG_DEATHS_TOTAL * VALUE_OF_STATISTICAL_LIFE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nV_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1016116666666666.6},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_FORWARD_SETTLEMENT_VALUE_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/court-of-humanity.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[5364323.201973655,21447999.550951],"conservative":null,"description":"Forward treaty settlement value per living human from the 1% Treaty impact model. Kept separate from historical corporate damages.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Forward Settlement Value Per Capita","formatted":"10.60M USD/person","formula":"DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_PLUS_EFFICACY_LAG_ECONOMIC_VALUE / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nV_{settlement,pc} = \\frac{Value_{max}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$84800T}{8B} = \\$10.6M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Value_{max} = DALYs_{max} \\times Value_{QALY} = 565B \\times \\$150K = \\$84800T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":10598318.87533123},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PENTAGON_FCA_PENALTY_INCREMENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"False Claims Act-style penalty increment on Pentagon unaccounted funds, calculated as treble exposure minus principal so the principal is not counted twice.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Pentagon FCA Penalty Increment","formatted":"$4.92T","formula":"PENTAGON_UNACCOUNTED_FALSE_CLAIMS_ANALOG_EXPOSURE - PENTAGON_UNACCOUNTED_FUNDS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nPenalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":4920000000000},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROPERTY_ENVIRONMENTAL_DESTRUCTION":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[36098104284979.14,63611521838534.58],"conservative":null,"description":"Property and environmental destruction from war since 1900, separated from war death valuation to avoid adding the QALY component embedded in the broader historical sunk-cost parameter.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Property Plus Environmental Destruction","formatted":"$50.00T","formula":"WAR_PROPERTY_DESTRUCTION_SINCE_1900 + WAR_ENVIRONMENTAL_DESTRUCTION_SINCE_1900","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{property+env} \\\\\n= D_{property} + D_{env} \\\\\n= \\$45T + \\$5T \\\\\n= \\$50T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":50000000000000},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_BASE_ASK_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[490901.17878172814,1274871.6634085476],"conservative":null,"description":"Aggressive corporate-liability prosecutor base ask per living human.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Prosecutor Base Ask Per Capita","formatted":"913,218.971 USD/person","formula":"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_BASE_ASK_TOTAL / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,ask,pc} = \\frac{D_{corp,ask}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$7310T}{8B} = \\$913K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,ask} = D_{corp,floor} + V_{neverdev,VSL} = \\$4310T + \\$3000T = \\$7310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{neverdev,VSL} = Deaths_{neverdev} \\times VSL = 300M \\times \\$10M = \\$3000T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":913218.9708806707},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_BASE_ASK_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3916642550338957,10201972648091636],"conservative":null,"description":"Aggressive corporate-liability prosecutor base ask: strict floor plus the aggressive pleading estimate for deaths from drugs never developed. Excludes punitive damages, disgorgement, ongoing lost-income damages, and forward treaty settlement value.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Prosecutor Base Ask Total","formatted":"$7305.75T","formula":"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STRICT_FLOOR_TOTAL + CORPORATE_DAMAGES_DRUGS_NEVER_DEVELOPED_VSL","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,ask} = D_{corp,floor} + V_{neverdev,VSL} = \\$4310T + \\$3000T = \\$7310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{neverdev,VSL} = Deaths_{neverdev} \\times VSL = 300M \\times \\$10M = \\$3000T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":7305751767045366},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_AGING_INTAKE_EXPOSURE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[-16364976108491646,39794915542752600],"conservative":null,"description":"Gross pleading exposure for the overlapping aging intake class valued at VSL. Displayed separately because it overlaps with the broader disease-death class.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Prosecutor Gross Aging Intake Exposure","formatted":"$17830.85T","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_AGING_PLAINTIFFS * VALUE_OF_STATISTICAL_LIFE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,aging,gross} = N_{plaintiffs,aging} \\times VSL = 1.78B \\times \\$10M = \\$17800T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{plaintiffs,aging} = T_{post,aging} \\times Deaths_{curable,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,death} = 35 \\times 55M \\times 92.6\\% = 1.78B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,aging} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{aging,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{aging,plead} = Y_{disease,plead} + T_{aging,lag} = 1{,}950 + 40 = 1{,}990\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":17830853020914020},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_DISEASE_DALY_EXPOSURE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[1806467465478499.2,48554660944597176],"conservative":null,"description":"Gross pleading exposure for post-cutoff disease DALYs valued at the standard QALY value. This is disease-year and suffering exposure, not a final non-duplicative award.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Prosecutor Gross Disease DALY Exposure","formatted":"$30011.41T","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_DISEASE_DALYS * STANDARD_ECONOMIC_QALY_VALUE_USD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,DALY,gross} = DALYs_{post,disease} \\times Value_{QALY} = 200B \\times \\$150K = \\$30000T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{post,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} = 75 \\times 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% = 200B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,disease} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{disease,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":30011409759876064},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_MEDICAL_MISALLOCATION_EXPOSURE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[2438082692630886,68794442006825810],"conservative":null,"description":"Gross pleading exposure for post-cutoff medical misallocation disease plaintiffs valued at VSL. This is pleading exposure, not a final non-duplicative award.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Prosecutor Gross Medical Misallocation Exposure","formatted":"$38208.97T","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_DISEASE_PLAINTIFFS * VALUE_OF_STATISTICAL_LIFE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,med,gross} = N_{plaintiffs,disease} \\times VSL = 3.82B \\times \\$10M = \\$38200T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{plaintiffs,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times Deaths_{curable,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,death} = 75 \\times 55M \\times 92.6\\% = 3.82B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,disease} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{disease,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":38208970759101470},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_PLEADING_EXPOSURE_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[719051.0672218482,9232081.555794401],"conservative":null,"description":"Gross death-based pleading exposure per living human if the judgment were distributed as universal residual restitution. This is not a final award.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Prosecutor Gross Pleading Exposure Per Living Human","formatted":"5.31M USD/person","formula":"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_PLEADING_EXPOSURE_TOTAL / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,plead,gross,pc} = \\frac{D_{corp,plead,gross}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$42500T}{8B} = \\$5.31M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,plead,gross} = D_{corp,floor} + D_{corp,med,gross} = \\$4310T + \\$38200T = \\$42500T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,med,gross} = N_{plaintiffs,disease} \\times VSL = 3.82B \\times \\$10M = \\$38200T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{plaintiffs,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times Deaths_{curable,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,death} = 75 \\times 55M \\times 92.6\\% = 3.82B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,disease} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{disease,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":5314340.315768355},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_PLEADING_EXPOSURE_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[5745108618347242,74082055303720590],"conservative":null,"description":"Aggressive prosecutor gross pleading exposure: strict non-duplicative floor plus gross medical misallocation exposure. This is gross pleading exposure, not a final award.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Prosecutor Gross Pleading Exposure Total","formatted":"$42514.72T","formula":"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STRICT_FLOOR_TOTAL + CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_MEDICAL_MISALLOCATION_EXPOSURE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,plead,gross} = D_{corp,floor} + D_{corp,med,gross} = \\$4310T + \\$38200T = \\$42500T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,med,gross} = N_{plaintiffs,disease} \\times VSL = 3.82B \\times \\$10M = \\$38200T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{plaintiffs,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times Deaths_{curable,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,death} = 75 \\times 55M \\times 92.6\\% = 3.82B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,disease} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{disease,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":42514722526146840},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_PLEADING_EXPOSURE_WITH_DALYS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[8547337297342968,112984346538119230],"conservative":null,"description":"Aggressive prosecutor stacked gross pleading exposure: strict floor plus post-cutoff disease-death VSL exposure plus post-cutoff disease DALY exposure. This intentionally shows the full pleading stack and may overlap; it is not a final non-duplicative award.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Prosecutor Gross Pleading Exposure With DALYs","formatted":"$72526.13T","formula":"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STRICT_FLOOR_TOTAL + CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_MEDICAL_MISALLOCATION_EXPOSURE + CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_DISEASE_DALY_EXPOSURE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,plead,DALY} = D_{corp,floor} + D_{corp,med,gross} + D_{corp,DALY,gross} = \\$4310T + \\$38200T + \\$30000T = \\$72500T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,med,gross} = N_{plaintiffs,disease} \\times VSL = 3.82B \\times \\$10M = \\$38200T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{plaintiffs,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times Deaths_{curable,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,death} = 75 \\times 55M \\times 92.6\\% = 3.82B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,disease} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{disease,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,DALY,gross} = DALYs_{post,disease} \\times Value_{QALY} = 200B \\times \\$150K = \\$30000T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{post,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} = 75 \\times 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% = 200B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":72526132286022910},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_PLEADING_EXPOSURE_WITH_DALYS_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[1060152.768278059,14108642.598292673],"conservative":null,"description":"Gross stacked pleading exposure per living human if the death and DALY pleading stack were distributed as universal residual restitution. This is not a final award.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Prosecutor Gross Pleading Exposure With DALYs Per Living Human","formatted":"9.07M USD/person","formula":"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_PLEADING_EXPOSURE_WITH_DALYS / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,plead,DALY,pc} = \\frac{D_{corp,plead,DALY}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$72500T}{8B} = \\$9.07M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,plead,DALY} = D_{corp,floor} + D_{corp,med,gross} + D_{corp,DALY,gross} = \\$4310T + \\$38200T + \\$30000T = \\$72500T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,med,gross} = N_{plaintiffs,disease} \\times VSL = 3.82B \\times \\$10M = \\$38200T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{plaintiffs,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times Deaths_{curable,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,death} = 75 \\times 55M \\times 92.6\\% = 3.82B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,disease} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{disease,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,DALY,gross} = DALYs_{post,disease} \\times Value_{QALY} = 200B \\times \\$150K = \\$30000T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{post,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} = 75 \\times 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% = 200B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":9065766.535752865},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STATE_FARM_CEILING_EXPOSURE_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[4909011.787817282,12748716.634085476],"conservative":null,"description":"Constitutional-ceiling exposure per living human under State Farm v. Campbell. This is exposure, not a typical award.","displayName":"Corporate Damages State Farm Constitutional-Ceiling Exposure Per Capita","formatted":"9.13M USD/person","formula":"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STATE_FARM_CEILING_EXPOSURE_TOTAL / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,StateFarm,pc} = \\frac{D_{corp,StateFarm}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$73100T}{8B} = \\$9.13M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,StateFarm} = D_{corp,ask} \\times m_{StateFarm} = \\$7310T \\times 10 = \\$73100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,ask} = D_{corp,floor} + V_{neverdev,VSL} = \\$4310T + \\$3000T = \\$7310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{neverdev,VSL} = Deaths_{neverdev} \\times VSL = 300M \\times \\$10M = \\$3000T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":9132189.708806708},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STATE_FARM_CEILING_EXPOSURE_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[39166425503389576,102019726480916350],"conservative":null,"description":"Constitutional-ceiling exposure under State Farm v. Campbell: prosecutor base ask plus a 9:1 punitive-to-compensatory multiplier. This is exposure, not a typical award.","displayName":"Corporate Damages State Farm Constitutional-Ceiling Exposure Total","formatted":"$73057.52T","formula":"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_BASE_ASK_TOTAL * CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STATE_FARM_CEILING_MULTIPLIER","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,StateFarm} = D_{corp,ask} \\times m_{StateFarm} = \\$7310T \\times 10 = \\$73100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,ask} = D_{corp,floor} + V_{neverdev,VSL} = \\$4310T + \\$3000T = \\$7310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{neverdev,VSL} = Deaths_{neverdev} \\times VSL = 300M \\times \\$10M = \\$3000T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":73057517670453660},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STRICT_FLOOR_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[270511.96744545765,743608.3315879538],"conservative":null,"description":"Strict non-duplicative corporate damages floor per living human.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Strict Floor Per Capita","formatted":"538,218.971 USD/person","formula":"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STRICT_FLOOR_TOTAL / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,floor,pc} = \\frac{D_{corp,floor}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$4310T}{8B} = \\$538K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":538218.9708806707},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STRICT_FLOOR_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2161538442879293.2,5938501024355791],"conservative":null,"description":"Strict non-duplicative corporate damages floor: war-death VSL, existing-drug efficacy-lag VSL, property and environmental destruction, excess military spending above the 1900 freeze, and the Pentagon FCA-style penalty increment.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Strict Floor Total","formatted":"$4305.75T","formula":"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_WAR_DEATHS_VSL + CORPORATE_DAMAGES_EFFICACY_LAG_DEATHS_VSL + CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROPERTY_ENVIRONMENTAL_DESTRUCTION + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_EXCESS_MILITARY_SPENDING_ABOVE_1900_FREEZE + CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PENTAGON_FCA_PENALTY_INCREMENT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":4305751767045365.5},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_TREBLE_EXPOSURE_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1472703.5363451845,3824614.9902256425],"conservative":null,"description":"Treble-style exposure per living human under the False Claims Act-style corporate penalty analogy.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Treble-Style Exposure Per Capita","formatted":"2.74M USD/person","formula":"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_TREBLE_EXPOSURE_TOTAL / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,treble,pc} = \\frac{D_{corp,treble}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$21900T}{8B} = \\$2.74M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,treble} = D_{corp,ask} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$7310T \\times 3 = \\$21900T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,ask} = D_{corp,floor} + V_{neverdev,VSL} = \\$4310T + \\$3000T = \\$7310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{neverdev,VSL} = Deaths_{neverdev} \\times VSL = 300M \\times \\$10M = \\$3000T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":2739656.912642012},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_TREBLE_EXPOSURE_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[11749927651016872,30605917944274904],"conservative":null,"description":"Treble-style exposure if the prosecutor base ask is multiplied under a False Claims Act-style corporate penalty analogy.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Treble-Style Exposure Total","formatted":"$21917.26T","formula":"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_BASE_ASK_TOTAL * CORPORATE_ANALOG_FALSE_CLAIMS_TREBLE_MULTIPLIER","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,treble} = D_{corp,ask} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$7310T \\times 3 = \\$21900T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,ask} = D_{corp,floor} + V_{neverdev,VSL} = \\$4310T + \\$3000T = \\$7310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{neverdev,VSL} = Deaths_{neverdev} \\times VSL = 300M \\times \\$10M = \\$3000T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":21917255301136096},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_WAR_DEATHS_VSL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1430962615096808,4210977921082954.5],"conservative":null,"description":"Corporate-defendant wrongful-death valuation for war deaths since 1900 using the standard value of a statistical life.","displayName":"Corporate Damages War Deaths VSL","formatted":"$3100.00T","formula":"WAR_DEATHS_SINCE_1900 * VALUE_OF_STATISTICAL_LIFE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nV_{war,VSL} \\\\\n= Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL \\\\\n= 310M \\times \\$10M \\\\\n= \\$3100T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":3100000000000000},"CUMULATIVE_MILITARY_IN_GOVT_TRIAL_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/declaration-of-optimization.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[28333.333333333332,55502.221700172435],"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative military spending since 1913 expressed in equivalent years of government clinical trial spending ($170T / $4.5B per year)","displayName":"Military Spending in Government Clinical Trial Years","formatted":"37,777.778 years","formula":"CUMULATIVE_MILITARY_SPENDING_FED_ERA / GLOBAL_GOVERNMENT_CLINICAL_TRIALS_SPENDING_ANNUAL","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nYears_{mil \\to trials,gov} \\\\\n= \\frac{Spending_{mil,cum,fed}}{Spending_{trials,gov}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$170T}{\\$4.5B} \\\\\n= 37{,}800\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":37777.77777777778},"CURRENT_COMBINATION_EXPLORATION_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[7448498.040164443,22621314.46466435],"conservative":null,"description":"Years to test all pairwise drug combinations at current trial capacity. Combination therapy is standard in oncology, HIV, cardiology.","displayName":"Combination Therapy Exploration Time (Current)","formatted":"13.67M years","formula":"COMBINATION_SPACE ÷ CURRENT_TRIALS_PER_YEAR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{explore,combo} = \\frac{Space_{combo}}{Trials_{ann,curr}} = \\frac{45.1B}{3{,}300} = 13.7M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Space_{combo} = N_{combo} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 45.1M \\times 1{,}000 = 45.1B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{combo} = \\frac{N_{safe} \\cdot (N_{safe} - 1)}{2}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":13672803.030303031},"CURRENT_KNOWN_SAFE_EXPLORATION_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1975.7419326711247,4040.5395026087817],"conservative":null,"description":"Years to test all known safe drug-disease combinations at current global trial capacity","displayName":"Known Safe Exploration Time (Current)","formatted":"2,878.788 years","formula":"DRUG_DISEASE_COMBINATIONS ÷ CURRENT_TRIALS_PER_YEAR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{explore,safe} = \\frac{N_{combos}}{Trials_{ann,curr}} = \\frac{9.5M}{3{,}300} = 2{,}880\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{combos} = N_{safe} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 9{,}500 \\times 1{,}000 = 9.5M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":2878.787878787879},"CURRENT_PATIENT_PARTICIPATION_RATE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.000631493041681894,0.0009748547625173146],"conservative":null,"description":"Current patient participation rate in clinical trials (0.08% = 1.9M participants / 2.4B disease patients)","displayName":"Current Patient Participation Rate in Clinical Trials","formatted":"0.1%","formula":"CURRENT_TRIAL_SLOTS / DISEASE_PATIENTS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nRate_{part} \\\\\n= \\frac{Slots_{curr}}{N_{patients}} \\\\\n= \\frac{1.9M}{2.4B} \\\\\n= 0.0792\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"clinical-trial-patient-participation-rate","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://www.fightcancer.org/policy-resources/barriers-patient-enrollment-therapeutic-clinical-trials-cancer","stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.0007916666666666666},"CURRENT_TOTAL_EXPLORATION_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[12070.211840054119,20053.152715364875],"conservative":null,"description":"Years to test all therapeutic combinations (known safe + emerging modalities) at current capacity","displayName":"Total Exploration Time (Current)","formatted":"15,606.061 years","formula":"TOTAL_COMBINATIONS ÷ CURRENT_TRIALS_PER_YEAR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{explore,total} = \\frac{N_{testable}}{Trials_{ann,curr}} = \\frac{51.5M}{3{,}300} = 15{,}600\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{testable} = N_{combos} + N_{emerging} = 9.5M + 42M = 51.5M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{combos} = N_{safe} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 9{,}500 \\times 1{,}000 = 9.5M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{emerging} = Combos_{gene} + Combos_{mRNA} + Combos_{epi} + Combos_{cell} = 20M + 20M + 1.5M + 500{,}000 = 42M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{gene} = N_{genes} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 20{,}000 \\times 1{,}000 = 20M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{mRNA} = N_{genes} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 20{,}000 \\times 1{,}000 = 20M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{epi} = N_{epi} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 1{,}500 \\times 1{,}000 = 1.5M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{cell} = N_{cell} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 500 \\times 1{,}000 = 500{,}000\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":15606.060606060606},"CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_AVG_INCOME_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Average income (GDP per capita) at year 15 under current trajectory.","displayName":"Current Trajectory Average Income at Year 15","formatted":"$18.71K","formula":"CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_15 / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2040_PROJECTED","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\bar{y}_{base,15} = \\frac{GDP_{base,15}}{Pop_{2040}} = \\frac{\\$167T}{8.9B} = \\$18.7K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,15} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{15}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":18713.96507272838},"CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_AVG_INCOME_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Average income (GDP per capita) at year 20 under current trajectory trajectory.","displayName":"Current Trajectory Average Income at Year 20","formatted":"$20.48K","formula":"CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20 ÷ GLOBAL_POPULATION_2045_PROJECTED","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":20482.705503629928},"CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_CUMULATIVE_LIFETIME_INCOME":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[815233.3784855307,1026700.953535974],"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative per-capita income over an average remaining lifespan under current trajectory baseline trajectory. Uses the implied per-capita baseline CAGR from 2025 to 2045.","displayName":"Current Trajectory Cumulative Lifetime Income (Per Capita)","formatted":"$903.91K","formula":"GLOBAL_AVG_INCOME_2025 * (1+g_pc,base) * ((1+g_pc,base)^T - 1) / g_pc,base, where g_pc,base is implied by CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_AVG_INCOME_YEAR_20","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nY_{cum,earth} \\\\\n= \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":903907.9767348965},"CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Global GDP at year 15 under status-quo current trajectory growth.","displayName":"Current Trajectory GDP at Year 15","formatted":"$166.55T","formula":"GLOBAL_GDP_2025 * (1 + GDP_BASELINE_GROWTH_RATE)^15","latex":"GDP_{base,15} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{15}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":166554289147282.6},"CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Global GDP at year 20 under status-quo current trajectory growth.","displayName":"Current Trajectory GDP at Year 20","formatted":"$188.44T","formula":"GLOBAL_GDP_2025 × (1 + GDP_BASELINE_GROWTH_RATE)^20","latex":"GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":188440890633395.34},"CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_MEDIAN_AFTER_TAX_INCOME_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2215.7597085010916,3366.9801549204203],"conservative":null,"description":"Median after-tax consumable income at year 15 under the status quo. Same construction as the year-20 variant: mean income x (1 - military share, drifting at its measured SIPRI-vs-GDP differential) x median-to-mean ratio x (1 - erosion, best guess zero)^15 x (1 - tax).","displayName":"Median After-Tax Consumable Income, Status Quo (Year 15)","formatted":"$2.77K","formula":"CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_AVG_INCOME_YEAR_15 * (1 - GLOBAL_MILITARY_SHARE_OF_GDP * ((1+GLOBAL_MILITARY_SPENDING_REAL_CAGR_10YR)/(1+GDP_BASELINE_GROWTH_RATE))^15) * GLOBAL_MEDIAN_TO_MEAN_INCOME_RATIO * (1 - GLOBAL_MEDIAN_SHARE_EROSION_RATE_ANNUAL)^15 * (1 - GLOBAL_EFFECTIVE_TAX_RATE_MEDIAN)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\tilde{m}_{base,15} = \\bar{y}_{base,15} \\times (1 - s_{mil} \\times \\left(\\frac{1+g_{mil,10yr}}{1+g_{base}}\\right)^{15}) \\times \\rho_{med} \\times (1 - e_{med})^{15} \\times (1 - \\tau_{med})\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,15} = \\frac{GDP_{base,15}}{Pop_{2040}} = \\frac{\\$167T}{8.9B} = \\$18.7K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,15} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil} = \\frac{Spending_{mil}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$2.72T}{\\$115T} = 2.37\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\rho_{med} = \\frac{\\tilde{y}_{gallup}}{\\bar{y}_{0}} = \\frac{\\$2.92K}{\\$14.4K} = 0.203\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":2774.150149846233},"CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_MEDIAN_AFTER_TAX_INCOME_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2401.5300461557567,3716.1655113319393],"conservative":null,"description":"Median after-tax consumable income at year 20 under the status quo: the world more or less as trended. Mean income grows at the baseline rate, the military share drifts up at its measured SIPRI-vs-GDP differential, the median's share holds (best guess zero erosion, range covers both directions), so the median grows roughly with GDP per capita. v1's compounding destructive share and assumed erosion made the median mysteriously die against 35 years of contrary observed history; that branch is gone. The collapse scenario (extraction crosses the rational-crime threshold and GDP craters with the median) is narrated separately, not smuggled into this baseline.","displayName":"Median After-Tax Consumable Income, Status Quo (Year 20)","formatted":"$3.03K","formula":"CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_AVG_INCOME_YEAR_20 * (1 - GLOBAL_MILITARY_SHARE_OF_GDP * ((1+GLOBAL_MILITARY_SPENDING_REAL_CAGR_10YR)/(1+GDP_BASELINE_GROWTH_RATE))^20) * GLOBAL_MEDIAN_TO_MEAN_INCOME_RATIO * (1 - GLOBAL_MEDIAN_SHARE_EROSION_RATE_ANNUAL)^20 * (1 - GLOBAL_EFFECTIVE_TAX_RATE_MEDIAN)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\tilde{m}_{base,20} = \\bar{y}_{base,20} \\times (1 - s_{mil} \\times \\left(\\frac{1+g_{mil,10yr}}{1+g_{base}}\\right)^{20}) \\times \\rho_{med} \\times (1 - e_{med})^{20} \\times (1 - \\tau_{med})\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil} = \\frac{Spending_{mil}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$2.72T}{\\$115T} = 2.37\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\rho_{med} = \\frac{\\tilde{y}_{gallup}}{\\bar{y}_{0}} = \\frac{\\$2.92K}{\\$14.4K} = 0.203\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":3032.5877137851235},"DEFENSE_TAKEOVER_COST_ACTIVIST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/loving-takeover.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Realistic entry cost: capital to take an activist (non-control) equity position across all major Western military contractors, bought near market price with no control premium. Board influence comes from the financial argument plus the index-fund votes, not from outright control. This capital buys shares the fund keeps, so the true net cost is far lower than this gross figure. Contrast with the buy-outright ceiling (DEFENSE_TAKEOVER_COST_TOTAL).","displayName":"Military Activist-Stake Cost (Realistic Entry)","formatted":"$48.40B","formula":"(DEFENSE_PRIMES_MARKET_CAP_US + DEFENSE_PRIMES_MARKET_CAP_ALLIED) * INFLUENCE_ACTIVIST_STAKE_FRACTION","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nC_{activist} \\\\\n= f_{activist} \\times (MarketCap_{US} + MarketCap_{allied}) \\\\\n= 0.05 \\times (\\$836B + \\$132B) \\\\\n= \\$48.4B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":48400000000},"DEFENSE_TAKEOVER_COST_ACTIVIST_PCT_INVESTABLE_ASSETS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/loving-takeover.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Activist-stake entry cost across the defense primes as a share of total global investable assets. The realistic-path floor of the cost-in-context range, well below the buy-outright ceiling.","displayName":"Military Activist-Stake Cost as Share of Global Investable Assets","formatted":"0.0%","formula":"DEFENSE_TAKEOVER_COST_ACTIVIST / GLOBAL_INVESTABLE_ASSETS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nC_{activist}/A_{investable} = \\frac{C_{activist}}{Assets_{invest}} = \\frac{\\$48.4B}{\\$305T} = 0.0159\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{activist} = f_{activist} \\times (MarketCap_{US} + MarketCap_{allied}) = 0.05 \\times (\\$836B + \\$132B) = \\$48.4B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.00015868852459016393},"DEFENSE_TAKEOVER_COST_PER_HUMAN":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/loving-takeover.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[106.88798971135063,111.44491158653862],"conservative":null,"description":"Per-person cost of the military takeover distributed across global population","displayName":"Military Takeover Cost per Human","formatted":"$109.118","formula":"DEFENSE_TAKEOVER_COST_TOTAL / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nC_{takeover,pp} = \\frac{C_{takeover}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$873B}{8B} = \\$109\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{takeover} = (MarketCap_{US} + MarketCap_{allied}) \\times f_{control} \\times m_{premium}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":109.1178},"DEFENSE_TAKEOVER_COST_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/loving-takeover.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"UPPER-BOUND cost to acquire outright controlling stakes (50.1%) in all major Western military contractors, including the acquisition premium. This is the buy-it-outright ceiling, not the expected entry cost: the realistic path is an activist stake (DEFENSE_TAKEOVER_COST_ACTIVIST) plus index-fund votes, which costs far less. Headline only as a worst case.","displayName":"Military Takeover Cost (Outright-Control Ceiling)","formatted":"$872.94B","formula":"(DEFENSE_PRIMES_MARKET_CAP_US + DEFENSE_PRIMES_MARKET_CAP_ALLIED) * DEFENSE_TAKEOVER_CONTROL_FRACTION * DEFENSE_TAKEOVER_ACQUISITION_PREMIUM","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nC_{takeover} \\\\\n= (MarketCap_{US} \\\\\n+ MarketCap_{allied}) \\times f_{control} \\times m_{premium}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":872942400000},"DEFENSE_TAKEOVER_PCT_ANNUAL_SAVINGS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/loving-takeover.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.025696016318021157,0.03100730189969515],"conservative":null,"description":"Cost to acquire controlling stakes in all major Western military contractors, expressed as a share of one year of global saving. Roughly ten days of what humanity sets aside annually.","displayName":"Military Takeover Cost as Share of Annual Global Saving","formatted":"2.8%","formula":"DEFENSE_TAKEOVER_COST_TOTAL / GLOBAL_ANNUAL_SAVINGS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nC_{takeover}/S_{annual} = \\frac{C_{takeover}}{S_{annual}} = \\frac{\\$873B}{\\$31.1T} = 2.81\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{takeover} = (MarketCap_{US} + MarketCap_{allied}) \\times f_{control} \\times m_{premium}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } S_{annual} = s_{global} \\times GDP_{global} = 27\\% \\times \\$115T = \\$31.1T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.028114086956521737},"DEFENSE_TAKEOVER_PCT_INVESTABLE_ASSETS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/loving-takeover.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Cost to acquire controlling stakes in all major Western military contractors, expressed as a share of total global investable assets. The affordability framing: the entire takeover is a rounding error against the world's investable wealth.","displayName":"Military Takeover Cost as Share of Global Investable Assets","formatted":"0.3%","formula":"DEFENSE_TAKEOVER_COST_TOTAL / GLOBAL_INVESTABLE_ASSETS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nC_{takeover}/A_{investable} = \\frac{C_{takeover}}{Assets_{invest}} = \\frac{\\$873B}{\\$305T} = 0.286\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{takeover} = (MarketCap_{US} + MarketCap_{allied}) \\times f_{control} \\times m_{premium}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.002862106229508197},"DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_25PCT_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Calendar year when the destructive economy (military + cybercrime) reaches 25% of GDP at current growth rates. Historical precedent suggests societies become unstable when extraction rates exceed 20-30% of economic output.","displayName":"Year Destructive Economy Reaches 25% of GDP","formatted":"2,033 year","formula":"DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_BASE_YEAR + ln(0.25 / DESTRUCTIVE_PCT_GDP) / ln(1 + DESTRUCTIVE_GROWTH - GDP_GROWTH)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nY_{25\\%} = Y_0 + \\frac{\\ln\\left(0.25 / \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_PCT\\_GDP}\\right)}{\\ln\\left(1 + \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_GROWTH} - \\text{GDP\\_GROWTH}\\right)}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{destruct:GDP} = \\frac{Cost_{destruct}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$13.2T}{\\$115T} = 11.5\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{destruct} = Spending_{mil} + Cost_{cyber} = \\$2.72T + \\$10.5T = \\$13.2T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"year","value":2033},"DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_35PCT_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Calendar year when the destructive economy (military + cybercrime) reaches 35% of GDP at current growth rates. Historical evidence from the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, Argentina, and Zimbabwe shows that total extractive burdens of 35-45% consistently trigger self-reinforcing death spirals. This is the empirically-derived terminal parasitic load threshold.","displayName":"Year Destructive Economy Reaches 35% of GDP (Terminal Parasitic Load)","formatted":"2,037 year","formula":"DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_BASE_YEAR + ln(0.35 / DESTRUCTIVE_PCT_GDP) / ln(1 + DESTRUCTIVE_GROWTH - GDP_GROWTH)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nY_{35\\%} = Y_0 + \\frac{\\ln\\left(0.35 / \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_PCT\\_GDP}\\right)}{\\ln\\left(1 + \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_GROWTH} - \\text{GDP\\_GROWTH}\\right)}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{destruct:GDP} = \\frac{Cost_{destruct}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$13.2T}{\\$115T} = 11.5\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{destruct} = Spending_{mil} + Cost_{cyber} = \\$2.72T + \\$10.5T = \\$13.2T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"year","value":2037},"DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_50PCT_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Calendar year when the destructive economy (military + cybercrime) reaches 50% of GDP at current growth rates. At that point, half of all economic activity is destructive, so stealing starts to beat creating for individuals, firms, and states because whatever gets created gets looted fast enough to kill productive investment.","displayName":"Year Destructive Economy Reaches 50% of GDP","formatted":"2,040 year","formula":"DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_BASE_YEAR + ln(0.50 / DESTRUCTIVE_PCT_GDP) / ln(1 + DESTRUCTIVE_GROWTH - GDP_GROWTH)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nY_{50\\%} = Y_0 + \\frac{\\ln\\left(0.50 / \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_PCT\\_GDP}\\right)}{\\ln\\left(1 + \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_GROWTH} - \\text{GDP\\_GROWTH}\\right)}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{destruct:GDP} = \\frac{Cost_{destruct}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$13.2T}{\\$115T} = 11.5\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{destruct} = Spending_{mil} + Cost_{cyber} = \\$2.72T + \\$10.5T = \\$13.2T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"year","value":2040},"DFDA_ANNUAL_OPEX":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[33531961.844661754,47078165.624719016],"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual pragmatic trial platform operational costs (sum of all components: platform + staff + infra + regulatory + community)","displayName":"Total Annual Pragmatic Trial Platform Operational Costs","formatted":"40.00M USD/year","formula":"PLATFORM_MAINTENANCE + STAFF + INFRASTRUCTURE + REGULATORY + COMMUNITY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nOPEX_{trial} \\\\\n= Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} \\\\\n+ Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} \\\\\n= \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M \\\\\n= \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":40000000},"DFDA_BENEFIT_RD_ONLY_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[48092082505.71534,73087936427.72623],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual benefit from pragmatic trial R&D savings (trial cost reduction, secondary component)","displayName":"Annual R&D Savings from Pragmatic Trials","formatted":"58.64B USD/year","formula":"TRIAL_SPENDING × COST_REDUCTION_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nBenefit_{RD,ann} = Spending_{trials} \\times Reduce_{pct} = \\$60B \\times 97.7\\% = \\$58.6B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Reduce_{pct} = 1 - \\frac{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}}{Cost_{P3,pt}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$929}{\\$41K} = 97.7\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":58640487804.878044},"DFDA_COMBINED_TREATMENT_SPEEDUP_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[6.859547807353251,70.81597247477352],"conservative":null,"description":"Combined speedup factor for treatment discovery from pragmatic trial expansion. Trial capacity multiplier times valley of death rescue multiplier. Diseases that would take T years to get first treatment now take T/speedup years.","displayName":"Combined Treatment Discovery Speedup Multiplier","formatted":"17.259078805733385 multiplier","formula":"PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER × VALLEY_OF_DEATH_RESCUE_MULTIPLIER","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{speedup} = k_{capacity} \\times k_{rescue} = 12.3 \\times 1.4 = 17.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{rescue} = Attrition_{valley} + 1 = 40\\% + 1 = 1.4\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"multiplier","value":17.259078805733385},"DFDA_DIRECT_FUNDING_COST_PER_DALY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[0.2636819636285897,1.4922459522638583],"conservative":null,"description":"Cost per DALY at direct funding level for the therapeutic space exploration period. Still highly cost-effective vs bed nets.","displayName":"Direct Pragmatic Trial Funding Cost per DALY","formatted":"0.8415122325165139 USD/DALY","formula":"NPV_DIRECT_FUNDING ÷ DALYS_TIMELINE_SHIFT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{direct,DALY} = \\frac{NPV_{direct}}{DALYs_{max}} = \\frac{\\$476B}{565B} = \\$0.842\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } NPV_{direct} = \\frac{T_{queue,trial}}{Funding_{trial,ref} \\times r_{discount}} = \\frac{36}{\\$21.8B \\times 3\\%} = \\$476B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/DALY","value":0.8415122325165139},"DFDA_DIRECT_FUNDING_QUEUE_CLEARANCE_NPV":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[155522542260.985,694735386930.992],"conservative":null,"description":"NPV of annual direct funding for the therapeutic space exploration period. Funding period equals exploration time (queue clearance years at given capacity multiplier). After exploration completes, the full timeline shift benefit is realized.","displayName":"Direct Pragmatic Trial Funding NPV (Exploration Period)","formatted":"$475.66B","formula":"ANNUAL_FUNDING × [(1 - (1 + r)^-T) / r] where T = exploration time","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nNPV_{direct} = \\frac{T_{queue,trial}}{Funding_{trial,ref} \\times r_{discount}} = \\frac{36}{\\$21.8B \\times 3\\%} = \\$476B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":475659465477.4342},"DFDA_DIRECT_FUNDING_ROI_TRIAL_CAPACITY_PLUS_EFFICACY_LAG":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[92043.93288140852,574644.6567700113],"conservative":null,"description":"ROI from directly funding pragmatic clinical trials over the therapeutic space exploration period.","displayName":"Direct Funding ROI - Elimination of Efficacy Lag Plus Earlier Treatment Discovery from Increased Trial Throughput","formatted":"178,250.528 ratio","formula":"ECONOMIC_VALUE ÷ DIRECT_FUNDING_NPV","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nROI_{direct,max} = \\frac{Value_{max}}{NPV_{direct}} = \\frac{\\$84800T}{\\$476B} = 178{,}000\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Value_{max} = DALYs_{max} \\times Value_{QALY} = 565B \\times \\$150K = \\$84800T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } NPV_{direct} = \\frac{T_{queue,trial}}{Funding_{trial,ref} \\times r_{discount}} = \\frac{36}{\\$21.8B \\times 3\\%} = \\$476B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":178250.5282798208},"DFDA_DIRECT_FUNDING_VS_BED_NETS_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[58.95024642588531,339.24501743871855],"conservative":null,"description":"How many times more cost-effective direct funding of medical research is vs bed nets.","displayName":"Direct Funding Cost-Effectiveness vs Bed Nets","formatted":"105.76198011269368 x","formula":"BED_NETS_COST_PER_DALY ÷ DIRECT_FUNDING_COST_PER_DALY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{direct,nets} = \\frac{Cost_{nets}}{Cost_{direct,DALY}} = \\frac{\\$89}{\\$0.842} = 106\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{direct,DALY} = \\frac{NPV_{direct}}{DALYs_{max}} = \\frac{\\$476B}{565B} = \\$0.842\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } NPV_{direct} = \\frac{T_{queue,trial}}{Funding_{trial,ref} \\times r_{discount}} = \\frac{36}{\\$21.8B \\times 3\\%} = \\$476B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":105.76198011269368},"DFDA_EFFICACY_LAG_ELIMINATION_DALYS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[4883424064.587652,13216346121.079237],"conservative":null,"description":"Total Disability-Adjusted Life Years lost from disease eradication delay (PRIMARY estimate)","displayName":"Total DALYs Lost from Disease Eradication Delay","formatted":"8.77B DALYs","formula":"YLL + YLD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDALYs_{lag} = YLL_{lag} + YLD_{lag} = 7.9B + 873M = 8.77B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLL_{lag} = \\text{DEATHS\\_TOTAL} \\times (REMAINING_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_AT_60 - (\\text{MEAN\\_AGE\\_OF\\_DEATH} - 60))\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag} = T_{lag} \\times Deaths_{disease,daily} \\times 338 = 8.2 \\times 150{,}000 \\times 338 = 416M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLD_{lag} = Deaths_{lag} \\times T_{suffering} \\times DW_{chronic} = 416M \\times 6 \\times 0.35 = 873M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"DALYs","value":8774488657.3},"DFDA_EFFICACY_LAG_ELIMINATION_DEATHS_AVERTED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[243655120.09118062,586678561.906714],"conservative":null,"description":"Total eventually avoidable deaths from delaying disease eradication by 8.2 years (PRIMARY estimate, conservative). Excludes fundamentally unavoidable deaths (primarily accidents ~7.9%).","displayName":"Total Deaths from Disease Eradication Delay","formatted":"415.85M deaths","formula":"ANNUAL_DEATHS × EFFICACY_LAG_YEARS × EVENTUALLY_AVOIDABLE_DEATH_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDeaths_{lag} \\\\\n= T_{lag} \\times Deaths_{disease,daily} \\times 338 \\\\\n= 8.2 \\times 150{,}000 \\times 338 \\\\\n= 416M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"deaths","value":415852543},"DFDA_EFFICACY_LAG_ELIMINATION_ECONOMIC_VALUE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[676151838589383.2,2135283883186806.5],"conservative":null,"description":"Total economic loss from delaying disease eradication by 8.2 years (PRIMARY estimate, 2024 USD). Values global DALYs at standardized US/International normative rate ($150k) rather than local ability-to-pay, representing the full human capital loss.","displayName":"Total Economic Loss from Disease Eradication Delay","formatted":"$1316.17T","formula":"DALYS_TOTAL × VSLY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nValue_{lag} = DALYs_{lag} \\times Value_{QALY} = 8.77B \\times \\$150K = \\$1320T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{lag} = YLL_{lag} + YLD_{lag} = 7.9B + 873M = 8.77B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLL_{lag} = \\text{DEATHS\\_TOTAL} \\times (REMAINING_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_AT_60 - (\\text{MEAN\\_AGE\\_OF\\_DEATH} - 60))\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag} = T_{lag} \\times Deaths_{disease,daily} \\times 338 = 8.2 \\times 150{,}000 \\times 338 = 416M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLD_{lag} = Deaths_{lag} \\times T_{suffering} \\times DW_{chronic} = 416M \\times 6 \\times 0.35 = 873M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1316173298595000},"DFDA_EFFICACY_LAG_ELIMINATION_YLD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[418489232.5413821,1495402463.0776439],"conservative":null,"description":"Years Lived with Disability during disease eradication delay (PRIMARY estimate)","displayName":"Years Lived with Disability During Disease Eradication Delay","formatted":"873.29M years","formula":"DEATHS_TOTAL × SUFFERING_PERIOD × DISABILITY_WEIGHT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nYLD_{lag} = Deaths_{lag} \\times T_{suffering} \\times DW_{chronic} = 416M \\times 6 \\times 0.35 = 873M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag} = T_{lag} \\times Deaths_{disease,daily} \\times 338 = 8.2 \\times 150{,}000 \\times 338 = 416M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":873290340.3},"DFDA_EFFICACY_LAG_ELIMINATION_YLL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[4344745145.384363,11999937406.38536],"conservative":null,"description":"Years of Life Lost from disease eradication delay deaths (PRIMARY estimate). Years lost per death = WHO conditional remaining life expectancy at 60, adjusted down to the mean lag-death age of 62 (~19 years/death). Replaces life-expectancy-at-birth minus age, which mixed an at-birth measure (carrying child mortality the deceased already survived) with a conditional question and understated the loss by ~40%. The linear age adjustment slightly understates remaining years (conditional life expectancy falls by less than one year per year of age).","displayName":"Years of Life Lost from Disease Eradication Delay","formatted":"7.90B years","formula":"DEATHS_TOTAL × (REMAINING_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_AT_60 - (MEAN_AGE_OF_DEATH - 60))","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nYLL_{lag} = \\text{DEATHS\\_TOTAL} \\times (REMAINING_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_AT_60 - (\\text{MEAN\\_AGE\\_OF\\_DEATH} - 60))\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag} = T_{lag} \\times Deaths_{disease,daily} \\times 338 = 8.2 \\times 150{,}000 \\times 338 = 416M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":7901198317},"DFDA_FIRST_TREATMENTS_PER_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[63.81406565520341,816.2174326966558],"conservative":null,"description":"Diseases per year receiving their first effective treatment with treaty-scale pragmatic trial capacity. Scales proportionally with trial capacity multiplier.","displayName":"New Treatments Per Year at Treaty-Scale Trial Capacity","formatted":"184.91870149000056 diseases/year","formula":"NEW_DISEASE_FIRST_TREATMENTS_PER_YEAR × PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nTreatments_{trial,ann} = Treatments_{new,ann} \\times k_{capacity} = 15 \\times 12.3 = 185\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"diseases/year","value":184.91870149000056},"DFDA_KNOWN_SAFE_EXPLORATION_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[53.66511988253669,597.8074447248639],"conservative":null,"description":"Years to test all known safe drug-disease combinations with treaty-scale pragmatic trial capacity","displayName":"Known Safe Exploration Time at Treaty-Scale Trial Capacity","formatted":"233.51785316399287 years","formula":"DRUG_DISEASE_COMBINATIONS ÷ TREATY_SCALE_TRIALS_PER_YEAR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{safe,trial} = \\frac{N_{combos}}{Capacity_{trials}} = \\frac{9.5M}{40{,}700} = 234\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{combos} = N_{safe} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 9{,}500 \\times 1{,}000 = 9.5M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Capacity_{trials} = Trials_{ann,curr} \\times k_{capacity} = 3{,}300 \\times 12.3 = 40{,}700\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":233.51785316399287},"DFDA_MAX_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER_PHYSICAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[449.96455858304637,718.0337008178902],"conservative":null,"description":"Physical upper bound on trial-capacity multiplier from participant availability. Even with unlimited funding, annual trial enrollment cannot exceed willing participant pool.","displayName":"Maximum Trial Capacity Multiplier (Physical Limit)","formatted":"565.8947368421053 x","formula":"WILLING_TRIAL_PARTICIPANTS_GLOBAL ÷ CURRENT_TRIAL_SLOTS_AVAILABLE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":565.8947368421053},"DFDA_NET_SAVINGS_RD_ONLY_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[48053513726.39374,73044979598.4833],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual net savings from R&D cost reduction only (gross savings minus operational costs, excludes regulatory delay value)","displayName":"Annual Net Savings from Pragmatic Trials (R&D Only)","formatted":"58.60B USD/year","formula":"GROSS_SAVINGS - ANNUAL_OPEX","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{RD,ann} = Benefit_{RD,ann} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$58.6B - \\$40M = \\$58.6B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{RD,ann} = Spending_{trials} \\times Reduce_{pct} = \\$60B \\times 97.7\\% = \\$58.6B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Reduce_{pct} = 1 - \\frac{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}}{Cost_{P3,pt}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$929}{\\$41K} = 97.7\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":58600487804.878044},"DFDA_NPV_ANNUAL_OPEX_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[31063360.195655596,49637669.94549314],"conservative":null,"description":"Total NPV annual opex (pragmatic trial platform core + DIH initiatives)","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Platform Total NPV Annual OPEX","formatted":"40.05M USD/year","formula":"TRIAL_PLATFORM_OPEX + DIH_OPEX","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nOPEX_{total} \\\\\n= OPEX_{ann} + OPEX_{DIH,ann} \\\\\n= \\$18.9M + \\$21.1M \\\\\n= \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":40050000},"DFDA_NPV_BENEFIT_RD_ONLY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[319276780547.4594,485324882882.58234],"conservative":null,"description":"NPV of pragmatic trial R&D savings only with 5-year adoption ramp (10-year horizon, most conservative financial estimate)","displayName":"NPV of Pragmatic Trial Benefits (R&D Only, 10-Year Discounted)","formatted":"$389.35B","formula":"SUM[Savings × adoption(t) / (1+r)^t] for t=1..10","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nNPV_{RD} \\\\\n= \\sum_{t=1}^{10} \\frac{Savings_{RD,ann} \\cdot \\frac{\\min(t,5)}{5}}{(1+r)^t}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":389352903335.6751},"DFDA_NPV_NET_BENEFIT_RD_ONLY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[318612416647.29364,484714772780.273],"conservative":null,"description":"NPV net benefit using R&D savings only (benefits minus costs)","displayName":"NPV Net Benefit (R&D Only)","formatted":"$388.74B","formula":"NPV_BENEFIT - NPV_COST","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nNPV_{net,RD} = NPV_{RD} - Cost_{platform,total} = \\$389B - \\$611M = \\$389B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } NPV_{RD} = \\sum_{t=1}^{10} \\frac{Savings_{RD,ann} \\cdot \\frac{\\min(t,5)}{5}}{(1+r)^t}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Savings_{RD,ann} = Benefit_{RD,ann} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$58.6B - \\$40M = \\$58.6B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{RD,ann} = Spending_{trials} \\times Reduce_{pct} = \\$60B \\times 97.7\\% = \\$58.6B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Reduce_{pct} = 1 - \\frac{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}}{Cost_{P3,pt}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$929}{\\$41K} = 97.7\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{platform,total} = PV_{OPEX} + Cost_{upfront,total} = \\$342M + \\$270M = \\$611M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } PV_{OPEX} = \\frac{T_{horizon}}{OPEX_{total} \\times r_{discount}} = \\frac{10}{\\$40M \\times 3\\%} = \\$342M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{total} = OPEX_{ann} + OPEX_{DIH,ann} = \\$18.9M + \\$21.1M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{upfront,total} = Cost_{upfront} + Cost_{DIH,init} = \\$40M + \\$230M = \\$270M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":388741518712.06226},"DFDA_NPV_PV_ANNUAL_OPEX":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[264976763.26077095,423419392.9799882],"conservative":null,"description":"Present value of annual opex over 10 years (NPV formula)","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Platform Present Value of Annual OPEX Over 10 Years","formatted":"$341.63M","formula":"OPEX × [(1 - (1 + r)^-T) / r]","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nPV_{OPEX} = \\frac{T_{horizon}}{OPEX_{total} \\times r_{discount}} = \\frac{10}{\\$40M \\times 3\\%} = \\$342M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{total} = OPEX_{ann} + OPEX_{DIH,ann} = \\$18.9M + \\$21.1M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":341634623.61287224},"DFDA_NPV_TOTAL_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[499122407.7082175,729098551.5691642],"conservative":null,"description":"Total NPV cost (upfront + PV of annual opex)","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Platform Total NPV Cost","formatted":"$611.38M","formula":"UPFRONT + PV_OPEX","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{platform,total} = PV_{OPEX} + Cost_{upfront,total} = \\$342M + \\$270M = \\$611M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } PV_{OPEX} = \\frac{T_{horizon}}{OPEX_{total} \\times r_{discount}} = \\frac{10}{\\$40M \\times 3\\%} = \\$342M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{total} = OPEX_{ann} + OPEX_{DIH,ann} = \\$18.9M + \\$21.1M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{upfront,total} = Cost_{upfront} + Cost_{DIH,init} = \\$40M + \\$230M = \\$270M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":611384623.6128722},"DFDA_NPV_UPFRONT_COST_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[196177765.4074869,362705392.5711628],"conservative":null,"description":"Total NPV upfront costs (pragmatic trial platform core + DIH initiatives)","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Platform Total NPV Upfront Costs","formatted":"$269.75M","formula":"TRIAL_PLATFORM_BUILD + DIH_INITIATIVES","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{upfront,total} \\\\\n= Cost_{upfront} + Cost_{DIH,init} \\\\\n= \\$40M + \\$230M \\\\\n= \\$270M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":269750000},"DFDA_OPEX_PCT_OF_TREATY_FUNDING":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.0012327927148772704,0.0017308149126734932],"conservative":null,"description":"Percentage of treaty funding allocated to pragmatic trial platform overhead","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Platform Overhead Percentage of Treaty Funding","formatted":"0.1%","formula":"TRIAL_PLATFORM_OPEX / TREATY_FUNDING","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nOPEX_{pct} = \\frac{OPEX_{trial}}{Funding_{treaty}} = \\frac{\\$40M}{\\$27.2B} = 0.147\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.0014705882352941176},"DFDA_PATIENTS_FUNDABLE_ANNUALLY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[9231458.856089607,93920792.67191431],"conservative":null,"description":"Number of patients fundable annually at the reference pragmatic trial funding level and empirical pragmatic trial cost. Source-agnostic counterpart of DIH_PATIENTS_FUNDABLE_ANNUALLY.","displayName":"Patients Fundable Annually at Reference Funding","formatted":"23.42M patients/year","formula":"REFERENCE_TRIAL_SUBSIDIES / PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_COST_PER_PATIENT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"patients/year","value":23423035.52206674},"DFDA_QUEUE_CLEARANCE_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[8.147362721662773,105.71746986550488],"conservative":null,"description":"Years to explore the entire therapeutic search space with treaty-scale pragmatic trial capacity. At increased discovery rate, finding first treatments for all currently untreatable diseases takes ~36 years instead of ~443.","displayName":"Therapeutic Space Exploration Time at Treaty-Scale Trial Capacity","formatted":"35.9617493872549 years","formula":"STATUS_QUO_QUEUE_CLEARANCE_YEARS ÷ PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":35.9617493872549},"DFDA_RD_SAVINGS_DAILY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/health-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[131759130.15264475,200240921.71979788],"conservative":null,"description":"Daily R&D savings from trial cost reduction (opportunity cost of delay)","displayName":"Daily R&D Savings from Trial Cost Reduction","formatted":"160.66M USD/day","formula":"ANNUAL_RD_SAVINGS ÷ DAYS_PER_YEAR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{RD,daily} = Benefit_{RD,ann} \\times 0.00274 = \\$58.6B \\times 0.00274 = \\$161M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{RD,ann} = Spending_{trials} \\times Reduce_{pct} = \\$60B \\times 97.7\\% = \\$58.6B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Reduce_{pct} = 1 - \\frac{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}}{Cost_{P3,pt}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$929}{\\$41K} = 97.7\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/day","value":160658870.698296},"DFDA_ROI_RD_ONLY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[478.834602301671,854.4590305810763],"conservative":null,"description":"ROI from pragmatic trial R&D savings only (10-year NPV, most conservative estimate)","displayName":"ROI from Pragmatic Trial R&D Savings Only","formatted":"636.8379057930197 ratio","formula":"NPV_BENEFIT ÷ NPV_TOTAL_COST","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nROI_{RD} = \\frac{NPV_{RD}}{Cost_{platform,total}} = \\frac{\\$389B}{\\$611M} = 637\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } NPV_{RD} = \\sum_{t=1}^{10} \\frac{Savings_{RD,ann} \\cdot \\frac{\\min(t,5)}{5}}{(1+r)^t}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Savings_{RD,ann} = Benefit_{RD,ann} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$58.6B - \\$40M = \\$58.6B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{RD,ann} = Spending_{trials} \\times Reduce_{pct} = \\$60B \\times 97.7\\% = \\$58.6B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Reduce_{pct} = 1 - \\frac{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}}{Cost_{P3,pt}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$929}{\\$41K} = 97.7\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{platform,total} = PV_{OPEX} + Cost_{upfront,total} = \\$342M + \\$270M = \\$611M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } PV_{OPEX} = \\frac{T_{horizon}}{OPEX_{total} \\times r_{discount}} = \\frac{10}{\\$40M \\times 3\\%} = \\$342M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{total} = OPEX_{ann} + OPEX_{DIH,ann} = \\$18.9M + \\$21.1M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{upfront,total} = Cost_{upfront} + Cost_{DIH,init} = \\$40M + \\$230M = \\$270M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":636.8379057930197},"DFDA_STORAGE_COST_TOTAL_PER_PATIENT_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/dfda.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[5.883767727965169,12.057019568862726],"conservative":null,"description":"Total infrastructure cost per patient per year. Monthly cost × 12.","displayName":"Total Infrastructure Cost per Patient (Annual)","formatted":"8.64 USD/patient/year","formula":"MONTHLY_COST × 12","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{infra,annual} = Cost_{infra,monthly} \\times 12 = \\$0.72 \\times 12 = \\$8.64\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{infra,monthly} = Cost_{storage,raw} + Cost_{compute} + Cost_{database} + Cost_{backup} = \\$0.02 + \\$0.2 + \\$0.3 + \\$0.2 = \\$0.72\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/patient/year","value":8.64},"DFDA_STORAGE_COST_TOTAL_PER_PATIENT_MONTHLY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/dfda.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.49031397733043075,1.0047516307385607],"conservative":null,"description":"Total infrastructure cost per patient per month. Sum of storage, compute, database, and backup costs.","displayName":"Total Infrastructure Cost per Patient (Monthly)","formatted":"0.72 USD/patient/month","formula":"RAW + COMPUTE + DATABASE + BACKUP","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{infra,monthly} \\\\\n= Cost_{storage,raw} + Cost_{compute} + Cost_{database} \\\\\n+ Cost_{backup} \\\\\n= \\$0.02 + \\$0.2 + \\$0.3 + \\$0.2 \\\\\n= \\$0.72\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/patient/month","value":0.72},"DFDA_TOTAL_EXPLORATION_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[301.2949812653266,3209.806208391382],"conservative":null,"description":"Years to test all therapeutic combinations (known safe + emerging modalities) with treaty-scale pragmatic trial capacity","displayName":"Total Exploration Time at Treaty-Scale Trial Capacity","formatted":"1,265.913 years","formula":"TOTAL_COMBINATIONS ÷ TREATY_SCALE_TRIALS_PER_YEAR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{explore,trial} = \\frac{N_{testable}}{Capacity_{trials}} = \\frac{51.5M}{40{,}700} = 1{,}270\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{testable} = N_{combos} + N_{emerging} = 9.5M + 42M = 51.5M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{combos} = N_{safe} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 9{,}500 \\times 1{,}000 = 9.5M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{emerging} = Combos_{gene} + Combos_{mRNA} + Combos_{epi} + Combos_{cell} = 20M + 20M + 1.5M + 500{,}000 = 42M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{gene} = N_{genes} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 20{,}000 \\times 1{,}000 = 20M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{mRNA} = N_{genes} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 20{,}000 \\times 1{,}000 = 20M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{epi} = N_{epi} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 1{,}500 \\times 1{,}000 = 1.5M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{cell} = N_{cell} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 500 \\times 1{,}000 = 500{,}000\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Capacity_{trials} = Trials_{ann,curr} \\times k_{capacity} = 3{,}300 \\times 12.3 = 40{,}700\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":1265.9125724153298},"DFDA_TRIALS_PER_YEAR_CAPACITY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[16040.506410773705,169071.46443721245],"conservative":null,"description":"Maximum trials per year possible with trial capacity multiplier","displayName":"Maximum Trials per Year at Treaty-Scale Trial Capacity","formatted":"40,682.114 trials/year","formula":"CURRENT_TRIALS × PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCapacity_{trials} = Trials_{ann,curr} \\times k_{capacity} = 3{,}300 \\times 12.3 = 40{,}700\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"trials/year","value":40682.114327800125},"DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_DALYS_AVERTED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[289130017386.7707,1062519307948.7119],"conservative":null,"description":"Total DALYs averted from trial capacity increase alone. Calculated as annual global DALY burden × eventually avoidable percentage × treatment acceleration years. Includes both fatal and non-fatal diseases.","displayName":"DALYs Averted from Trial Capacity Increase","formatted":"543.37B DALYs","formula":"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DALY_BURDEN × EVENTUALLY_AVOIDABLE_DALY_PCT × TREATMENT_ACCELERATION_YEARS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDALYs_{capacity} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 204 = 543B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"DALYs","value":543368690237.1337},"DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_ECONOMIC_VALUE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[40316223894074360,168048904359834370],"conservative":null,"description":"Total economic value from trial capacity increase alone. DALYs valued at standard economic rate.","displayName":"Economic Value from Trial Capacity Increase","formatted":"$81505.30T","formula":"TRIAL_CAPACITY_DALYS_AVERTED × STANDARD_QALY_VALUE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nValue_{capacity} = DALYs_{capacity} \\times Value_{QALY} = 543B \\times \\$150K = \\$81500T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{capacity} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 204 = 543B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":81505303535570060},"DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_LIVES_SAVED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[5840094637.468375,19868263388.42882],"conservative":null,"description":"Total eventually avoidable deaths from trial capacity increase alone. Represents first treatments arriving earlier due to faster therapeutic space exploration from increased trial capacity.","displayName":"Lives Saved from Trial Capacity Increase","formatted":"10.33B deaths","formula":"ANNUAL_DEATHS × TRIAL_CAPACITY_TREATMENT_ACCELERATION_YEARS × AVOIDABLE_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nLives_{capacity} = Deaths_{disease,daily} \\times T_{accel} \\times 338 = 150{,}000 \\times 204 \\times 338 = 10.3B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"deaths","value":10329665205.028845},"DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[4.9246163609222675,50.75891196438465],"conservative":null,"description":"Trial capacity multiplier from treaty-scale pragmatic trial funding capacity vs. current global trial participation","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Capacity Multiplier at Treaty-Scale Funding","formatted":"12.327913432666705 x","formula":"PATIENTS_FUNDABLE_AT_REFERENCE_FUNDING ÷ CURRENT_TRIAL_SLOTS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":12.327913432666705},"DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_PLUS_EFFICACY_LAG_DALYS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[309417839106.5174,1084398442917.5596],"conservative":null,"description":"Total DALYs averted from the combined treatment timeline shift. Calculated as annual global DALY burden × eventually avoidable percentage × timeline shift years. Includes both fatal and non-fatal diseases (WHO GBD methodology).","displayName":"Total DALYs from Elimination of Efficacy Lag Plus Earlier Treatment Discovery from Higher Trial Throughput","formatted":"565.24B DALYs","formula":"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DALY_BURDEN × EVENTUALLY_AVOIDABLE_DALY_PCT × TIMELINE_SHIFT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"DALYs","value":565243673350.9989},"DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_PLUS_EFFICACY_LAG_ECONOMIC_VALUE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[42873433494168120,171825306120642530],"conservative":null,"description":"Total economic value from the combined treatment timeline shift. DALYs valued at standard economic rate.","displayName":"Total Economic Benefit from Elimination of Efficacy Lag Plus Earlier Treatment Discovery from Higher Trial Throughput","formatted":"$84786.55T","formula":"DALYS × STANDARD_QALY_VALUE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nValue_{max} = DALYs_{max} \\times Value_{QALY} = 565B \\times \\$150K = \\$84800T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":84786551002649840},"DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_PLUS_EFFICACY_LAG_LIVES_SAVED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[6235696426.716688,20312982088.986675],"conservative":null,"description":"Total eventually avoidable deaths from the combined treatment timeline shift. Represents deaths prevented when cures arrive earlier due to both increased trial capacity and eliminated efficacy lag.","displayName":"Total Lives Saved from Elimination of Efficacy Lag Plus Earlier Treatment Discovery from Higher Trial Throughput","formatted":"10.75B deaths","formula":"ANNUAL_DEATHS × TOTAL_TIMELINE_SHIFT_YEARS × AVOIDABLE_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nLives_{max} = Deaths_{disease,daily} \\times T_{accel,max} \\times 338 = 150{,}000 \\times 212 \\times 338 = 10.7B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"deaths","value":10745517748.59972},"DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_PLUS_EFFICACY_LAG_SUFFERING_HOURS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[1037413031639951.2,3745214944984868.5],"conservative":null,"description":"Hours of suffering eliminated from the combined treatment timeline shift. Calculated from YLD component of DALYs (39% of total DALYs × hours per year). One-time benefit, not annual recurring.","displayName":"Suffering Hours Eliminated from Elimination of Efficacy Lag Plus Earlier Treatment Discovery from Higher Trial Throughput","formatted":"1931098.49B hours","formula":"TOTAL_TIMELINE_SHIFT_DALYS × GLOBAL_YLD_PROPORTION × HOURS_PER_YEAR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nHours_{suffer,max} = DALYs_{max} \\times Pct_{YLD} \\times 8760 = 565B \\times 0.39 \\times 8760 = 1930T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"hours","value":1931098485636352.8},"DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_PLUS_EFFICACY_LAG_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[124.41448688661136,398.0070865002508],"conservative":null,"description":"Average years earlier patients receive treatments from increased pragmatic trial capacity plus efficacy lag elimination for treatments already discovered.","displayName":"Average Total Treatment Timeline Shift","formatted":"211.8857919730392 years","formula":"TRIAL_CAPACITY_TREATMENT_ACCELERATION_YEARS + EFFICACY_LAG_YEARS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":211.8857919730392},"DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_TREATMENT_ACCELERATION_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[116.21129937776517,389.635764722448],"conservative":null,"description":"Years earlier the average first treatment arrives due to increased pragmatic trial capacity. Calculated as the status quo timeline reduced by the inverse of the capacity multiplier. Uses only trial capacity multiplier (not combined with valley of death rescue) because additional candidates do not directly speed therapeutic space exploration.","displayName":"Treatment Timeline Acceleration from Pragmatic Trial Capacity","formatted":"203.68579197303922 years","formula":"STATUS_QUO_AVG_YEARS_TO_FIRST_TREATMENT × (1 - 1/PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":203.68579197303922},"DFDA_TRIAL_COST_REDUCTION_FACTOR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[12.751701016848756,210.2539910518858],"conservative":null,"description":"Cost reduction factor projected for embedded pragmatic trials (traditional Phase 3 cost / pragmatic trial cost per patient)","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Cost Reduction Factor","formatted":"44.13347685683531 multiplier","formula":"TRADITIONAL_PHASE3_COST / PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_COST","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{reduce} \\\\\n= \\frac{Cost_{P3,pt}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$41K}{\\$929} \\\\\n= 44.1\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"multiplier","value":44.13347685683531},"DFDA_TRIAL_COST_REDUCTION_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.9215790340091814,0.9952438476895992],"conservative":null,"description":"Trial cost reduction percentage: 1 - (pragmatic trial cost / traditional Phase 3 cost)","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Cost Reduction Percentage","formatted":"97.7%","formula":"1 - (PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_COST / TRADITIONAL_COST)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nReduce_{pct} \\\\\n= 1 - \\frac{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}}{Cost_{P3,pt}} \\\\\n= 1 - \\frac{\\$929}{\\$41K} \\\\\n= 97.7\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percentage","value":0.9773414634146341},"DFDA_TRIAL_SUBSIDIES_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Annual patient-level pragmatic trial subsidies after operating costs at the reference funding level","displayName":"Reference Annual Trial Subsidies","formatted":"21.76B USD/year","formula":"REFERENCE_TRIAL_FUNDING - TRIAL_PLATFORM_OPEX","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSubsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":21760000000},"DFDA_VALLEY_OF_DEATH_RESCUE_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[1.264710080702658,1.5354638862931196],"conservative":null,"description":"Factor increase in drugs entering development when pragmatic trial subsidies remove the Phase 2/3 cost barrier. Valley-of-death attrition (40%) becomes new drugs, so 1 + 0.40 = 1.4× more drugs.","displayName":"Valley of Death Rescue Multiplier","formatted":"1.4 multiplier","formula":"1 + VALLEY_OF_DEATH_ATTRITION_PCT","latex":"k_{rescue} = Attrition_{valley} + 1 = 40\\% + 1 = 1.4","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"multiplier","value":1.4},"DIH_PATIENTS_FUNDABLE_ANNUALLY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[9214487.283468926,93748156.8214569],"conservative":null,"description":"Number of patients fundable annually from 1% Treaty pragmatic trial subsidies at empirical pragmatic trial cost (RECOVERY to PCORnet range).","displayName":"Patients Fundable Annually Under the 1% Treaty","formatted":"23.38M patients/year","formula":"ONE_PERCENT_TREATY_TRIAL_SUBSIDIES ÷ PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_COST_PER_PATIENT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{fundable,ann} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ann}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.7B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ann} = Treasury_{RD,ann} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.7B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Treasury_{RD,ann} = Funding_{treaty} - Payout_{bond,ann} - Funding_{political,ann} = \\$27.2B - \\$2.72B - \\$2.72B = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Payout_{bond,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{bond} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{political,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{political} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"patients/year","value":23379978.471474703},"DIH_TREASURY_MEDICAL_RESEARCH_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-protocol-v1.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Percentage of treaty funding allocated to medical research (after bond payouts and IAB incentives)","displayName":"Medical Research Percentage of Treaty Funding","formatted":"80.0%","formula":"MEDICAL_RESEARCH_FUNDING / TREATY_FUNDING","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nPct_{treasury,RD} = \\frac{Treasury_{RD,ann}}{Funding_{treaty}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$27.2B} = 80\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Treasury_{RD,ann} = Funding_{treaty} - Payout_{bond,ann} - Funding_{political,ann} = \\$27.2B - \\$2.72B - \\$2.72B = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Payout_{bond,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{bond} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{political,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{political} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.8},"DIH_TREASURY_TO_MEDICAL_RESEARCH_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Annual 1% Treaty funding available for pragmatic clinical trials after bond payouts and political incentive funding.","displayName":"1% Treaty Pragmatic Trial Funding","formatted":"21.76B USD/year","formula":"TREATY_FUNDING - BOND_PAYOUT - IAB_POLITICAL_INCENTIVE_FUNDING","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nTreasury_{RD,ann} = Funding_{treaty} - Payout_{bond,ann} - Funding_{political,ann} = \\$27.2B - \\$2.72B - \\$2.72B = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Payout_{bond,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{bond} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{political,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{political} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":21760000000},"DIH_TREASURY_TRIAL_SUBSIDIES_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Annual 1% Treaty patient-level pragmatic trial subsidies after platform operating costs","displayName":"1% Treaty Annual Trial Subsidies","formatted":"21.72B USD/year","formula":"ONE_PERCENT_TREATY_TRIAL_FUNDING - TRIAL_PLATFORM_OPEX","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSubsidies_{trial,ann} = Treasury_{RD,ann} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.7B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Treasury_{RD,ann} = Funding_{treaty} - Payout_{bond,ann} - Funding_{political,ann} = \\$27.2B - \\$2.72B - \\$2.72B = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Payout_{bond,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{bond} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{political,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{political} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":21720000000},"DIH_TREASURY_TRIAL_SUBSIDIES_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Percentage of treaty funding going directly to patient trial subsidies","displayName":"Patient Trial Subsidies Percentage of Treaty Funding","formatted":"79.9%","formula":"TRIAL_SUBSIDIES / TREATY_FUNDING","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nPct_{subsidies} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ann}}{Funding_{treaty}} = \\frac{\\$21.7B}{\\$27.2B} = 79.9\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ann} = Treasury_{RD,ann} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.7B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Treasury_{RD,ann} = Funding_{treaty} - Payout_{bond,ann} - Funding_{political,ann} = \\$27.2B - \\$2.72B - \\$2.72B = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Payout_{bond,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{bond} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{political,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{political} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.7985294117647059},"DISEASES_WITHOUT_EFFECTIVE_TREATMENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[5700,8232.204270373322],"conservative":null,"description":"Number of diseases without effective treatment. 95% of 7,000 rare diseases lack FDA-approved treatment (per Orphanet 2024). This represents the therapeutic search space that remains unexplored.","displayName":"Diseases Without Effective Treatment","formatted":"6,650 diseases","formula":"RARE_DISEASES_COUNT_GLOBAL × 0.95","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{untreated} \\\\\n= N_{rare} \\times 0.95 \\\\\n= 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 \\\\\n= 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"rare-disease-only-5pct-have-treatment","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://ojrd.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13023-024-03398-1","stdError":null,"unit":"diseases","value":6650},"DISEASE_VS_TERRORISM_DEATHS_RATIO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[15566.386375873588,21100.39605607465],"conservative":null,"description":"Ratio of annual disease deaths to 9/11 terrorism deaths","displayName":"Ratio of Annual Disease Deaths to 9/11 Terrorism Deaths","formatted":"18,357.81 ratio","formula":"ANNUAL_DISEASE_DEATHS ÷ 911_DEATHS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nRatio_{dis:terror} \\\\\n= \\frac{Deaths_{curable,ann}}{Deaths_{9/11}} \\\\\n= \\frac{55M}{3{,}000} \\\\\n= 18{,}400\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":18357.81041388518},"DISEASE_VS_WAR_DEATHS_RATIO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[175.27589108113241,288.43583520384414],"conservative":null,"description":"Ratio of annual disease deaths to war deaths","displayName":"Ratio of Annual Disease Deaths to War Deaths","formatted":"224.8569092395748 ratio","formula":"ANNUAL_DISEASE_DEATHS ÷ WAR_DEATHS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nRatio_{dis:war} = \\frac{Deaths_{curable,ann}}{Deaths_{conflict}} = \\frac{55M}{245{,}000} = 225\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{conflict} = Deaths_{combat} + Deaths_{state} + Deaths_{terror} = 234{,}000 + 2{,}700 + 8{,}300 = 245{,}000\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":224.8569092395748},"DIVIDEND_COVERAGE_FACTOR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[577.7625283348925,811.1663769526177],"conservative":null,"description":"Coverage factor of treaty funding vs pragmatic trial platform opex (sustainability margin)","displayName":"Coverage Factor of Treaty Funding vs Pragmatic Trial Platform OPEX","formatted":"680 ratio","formula":"TREATY_FUNDING ÷ TRIAL_PLATFORM_OPEX","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{coverage} = \\frac{Funding_{treaty}}{OPEX_{trial}} = \\frac{\\$27.2B}{\\$40M} = 680\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":680},"DRUGS_APPROVED_SINCE_1962":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[2790,3493.296739366098],"conservative":null,"description":"Estimated total drugs approved globally since 1962 (62 years × average approval rate). Conservative: uses current rate, actual historical rate was lower in 1960s-80s.","displayName":"Total Drugs Approved Since 1962","formatted":"3,100 drugs","formula":"APPROVALS_PER_YEAR × 62","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{drugs,62} \\\\\n= Drugs_{ann,curr} \\times 62 \\\\\n= 50 \\times 62 \\\\\n= 3{,}100\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"global-new-drug-approvals-50-annually","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/50-new-drugs-received-FDA/103/i2","stdError":null,"unit":"drugs","value":3100},"DRUG_COST_INCREASE_1980S_TO_CURRENT_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[9.152143530517138,19.183033669779867],"conservative":null,"description":"Drug development cost increase from 1980s to current","displayName":"Drug Cost Increase: 1980s to Current","formatted":"13.402061855670103 x","formula":"PHARMA_DRUG_DEVELOPMENT_COST_CURRENT ÷ DRUG_DEVELOPMENT_COST_1980S","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{cost,80s} \\\\\n= \\frac{Cost_{dev,curr}}{Cost_{dev,80s}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$2.6B}{\\$194M} \\\\\n= 13.4\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"pre-1962-drug-costs-timeline","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://thinkbynumbers.org/health/how-many-net-lives-does-the-fda-save/","stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":13.402061855670103},"DRUG_COST_INCREASE_PRE1962_TO_CURRENT_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/drug-development-cost-analysis.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[72.79921509607935,148.83891088125506],"conservative":null,"description":"Drug development cost increase from pre-1962 to current","displayName":"Drug Cost Increase: Pre-1962 to Current","formatted":"105.26315789473684 x","formula":"PHARMA_DRUG_DEVELOPMENT_COST_CURRENT ÷ PRE_1962_DRUG_DEVELOPMENT_COST_2024_USD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{cost,pre62} \\\\\n= \\frac{Cost_{dev,curr}}{Cost_{pre62,24}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$2.6B}{\\$24.7M} \\\\\n= 105\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"pre-1962-drug-costs-baily-1972","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://samizdathealth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/hlthaff.1.2.6.pdf","stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":105.26315789473684},"DRUG_DISEASE_COMBINATIONS_POSSIBLE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[6675351.737735795,12759539.26857128],"conservative":null,"description":"Total possible drug-disease combinations using existing safe compounds","displayName":"Possible Drug-Disease Combinations","formatted":"9.50M combinations","formula":"SAFE_COMPOUNDS × DISEASES","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{combos} \\\\\n= N_{safe} \\times N_{diseases,trial} \\\\\n= 9{,}500 \\times 1{,}000 \\\\\n= 9.5M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"combinations","value":9500000},"EARTH_OPTIMIZATION_POINT_VALUE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[530.5646591611574,26504.433879906428],"conservative":null,"description":"Value of a single Earth Optimization Point based on the modeled prize pool size (investable assets × participation rate × horizon multiple). CI range reflects participation uncertainty (0.1%-10%).","displayName":"Earth Optimization Point Value","formatted":"$6.67K","formula":"PRIZE_POOL_SIZE / GLOBAL_REGISTERED_VOTERS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nV_{vote} = \\frac{Pool}{N_{voters,global}} = \\frac{\\$27.5T}{4.13B} = \\$6.67K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Pool = Assets_{invest} \\times R_{pool} \\times M_{pool} = \\$305T \\times 1\\% \\times 9.03 = \\$27.5T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } M_{pool} = (1 + r_{pool})^{Y_{50\\%} - Y_0}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{pool} = r_{VC,gross} + \\Delta r_{scale} + \\alpha_{crowd} + \\alpha_{home} = 17\\% + -2.5\\% + 0.5\\% + 0.8\\% = 15.8\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{50\\%} = Y_0 + \\frac{\\ln\\left(0.50 / \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_PCT\\_GDP}\\right)}{\\ln\\left(1 + \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_GROWTH} - \\text{GDP\\_GROWTH}\\right)}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{destruct:GDP} = \\frac{Cost_{destruct}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$13.2T}{\\$115T} = 11.5\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{destruct} = Spending_{mil} + Cost_{cyber} = \\$2.72T + \\$10.5T = \\$13.2T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":6670.732881383013},"EARTH_OPTIMIZATION_TWO_POINTS_PAYOUT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1061.1293183223147,53008.867759812856],"conservative":null,"description":"Payout for a depositor who recruits 2 verified participants (earning 2 Earth Optimization Points). CI range reflects participation uncertainty.","displayName":"Earth Optimization Points Payout (2 Claims)","formatted":"$13.34K","formula":"2 × EARTH_OPTIMIZATION_POINT_VALUE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nV_{2claims} = V_{vote} \\times 2 = \\$6.67K \\times 2 = \\$13.3K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{vote} = \\frac{Pool}{N_{voters,global}} = \\frac{\\$27.5T}{4.13B} = \\$6.67K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Pool = Assets_{invest} \\times R_{pool} \\times M_{pool} = \\$305T \\times 1\\% \\times 9.03 = \\$27.5T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } M_{pool} = (1 + r_{pool})^{Y_{50\\%} - Y_0}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{pool} = r_{VC,gross} + \\Delta r_{scale} + \\alpha_{crowd} + \\alpha_{home} = 17\\% + -2.5\\% + 0.5\\% + 0.8\\% = 15.8\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{50\\%} = Y_0 + \\frac{\\ln\\left(0.50 / \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_PCT\\_GDP}\\right)}{\\ln\\left(1 + \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_GROWTH} - \\text{GDP\\_GROWTH}\\right)}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{destruct:GDP} = \\frac{Cost_{destruct}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$13.2T}{\\$115T} = 11.5\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{destruct} = Spending_{mil} + Cost_{cyber} = \\$2.72T + \\$10.5T = \\$13.2T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":13341.465762766025},"EFFICACY_LAG_CUMULATIVE_EXCESS_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[3752100223270.7974,6051910080821.11],"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative Phase 2/3 efficacy testing cost since 1962. Uses direct Phase 2/3 cost per drug - this is a LOWER BOUND because it excludes opportunity cost of delays, compounds abandoned due to cost barrier, and regulatory overhead.","displayName":"Cumulative Efficacy Testing Cost (1962-2024)","formatted":"$4.84T","formula":"PHASE_2_3_COST × DRUGS_APPROVED","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{eff,cumul} = Cost_{P2+P3} \\times N_{drugs,62} = \\$1.56B \\times 3{,}100 = \\$4.84T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{drugs,62} = Drugs_{ann,curr} \\times 62 = 50 \\times 62 = 3{,}100\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":4836000000000},"EFFICACY_LAG_DEATHS_911_EQUIVALENTS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[17055.27036972377,56925.62052604455],"conservative":null,"description":"Total deaths from efficacy lag expressed in 9/11 equivalents. Makes the mortality cost viscerally understandable: how many September 11ths worth of deaths did the 1962 efficacy requirements cause?","displayName":"Efficacy Lag Deaths (9/11 Equivalents)","formatted":"34,132.236 9/11s","formula":"EXISTING_DRUGS_EFFICACY_LAG_DEATHS_TOTAL ÷ SEPT_11_DEATHS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{9/11,equiv} = \\frac{Deaths_{lag,total}}{N_{9/11}} = \\frac{102M}{2{,}980} = 34{,}100\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"9/11s","value":34132.236031799344},"EFFICACY_LAG_TREATMENT_DELAY_YLD_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[1023729867.6755825,3239836647.961091],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual YLD from treatment delay: patients receiving chronic disease treatment would have collectively avoided this disability if treatments were available 8.2 years earlier. Represents morbidity burden for treatment beneficiaries (distinct from mortality burden).","displayName":"Treatment Delay YLD - Annual","formatted":"2.01B DALYs","formula":"PATIENTS × EFFICACY_LAG × DISABILITY_REDUCTION","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nYLD_{treat\\_delay} = N_{treated} \\times T_{lag} \\times \\Delta DW_{treat} = 982M \\times 8.2 \\times 0.25 = 2.01B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{treated} = DOT_{chronic} \\times 0.000767 = 1.28T \\times 0.000767 = 982M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"DALYs","value":2012931506.849315},"EMERGING_MODALITY_COMBINATIONS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[34277576.08040958,50014503.13209924],"conservative":null,"description":"Total emerging modality combinations (gene therapy + mRNA + epigenetics + cell therapy)","displayName":"Emerging Modality Combinations","formatted":"42.00M combinations","formula":"GENE + MRNA + EPIGENETIC + CELL","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{emerging} = Combos_{gene} + Combos_{mRNA} + Combos_{epi} + Combos_{cell} = 20M + 20M + 1.5M + 500{,}000 = 42M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{gene} = N_{genes} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 20{,}000 \\times 1{,}000 = 20M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{mRNA} = N_{genes} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 20{,}000 \\times 1{,}000 = 20M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{epi} = N_{epi} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 1{,}500 \\times 1{,}000 = 1.5M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{cell} = N_{cell} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 500 \\times 1{,}000 = 500{,}000\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"combinations","value":42000000},"EOS_EQUITY_VALUE_V":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/earth-optimization-fund.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[27217553273570.227,152517846536480.97],"conservative":null,"description":"Total addressable value for EOS equity: NPV of the fraction of political dysfunction tax EOS captures as portfolio appreciation. V in the share price formula: price = P(I) x V / total_shares. Calculated as dysfunction_tax x capture_pct / discount_rate.","displayName":"EOS Equity Value (V)","formatted":"$74.07T","formula":"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_OPPORTUNITY_COST_TOTAL * EOS_SOCIAL_VALUE_CAPTURE_PCT / NPV_DISCOUNT_RATE_STANDARD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nV_{EOS} = O_{total} \\times \\frac{\\phi_{capture}}{r_{discount}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } O_{total} = O_{health} + O_{science} + O_{lead} + O_{migration} = \\$34T + \\$4T + \\$6T + \\$57T = \\$101T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":74066666666666.67},"EPIGENETIC_DISEASE_COMBINATIONS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[993988.943881422,2101755.741800073],"conservative":null,"description":"Epigenetic reprogramming target-disease combinations","displayName":"Epigenetic Therapy Combinations","formatted":"1.50M combinations","formula":"EPIGENETIC_TARGETS × DISEASES","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCombos_{epi} \\\\\n= N_{epi} \\times N_{diseases,trial} \\\\\n= 1{,}500 \\times 1{,}000 \\\\\n= 1.5M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"combinations","value":1500000},"ETHYL_SHAREHOLDER_COUNTERFACTUAL_WEALTH_GAIN":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/i-am-retarded.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.08411436704851476,0.524175274767577],"conservative":null,"description":"How much richer a diversified Ethyl Gasoline Corporation shareholder would have been by 1996 had the board switched to ethanol in 1923: the economy compounds faster without the lead-induced IQ loss, and diversified shareholder wealth scales with the economy. Central ~23%; the Monte Carlo range spans roughly 'twenty to sixty percent richer'. Foregone TEL royalties are second-order against the economy-wide effect.","displayName":"Ethyl Shareholder Counterfactual Wealth Gain (Ethanol Switch, 1923)","formatted":"23.2%","formula":"(1 + LEADED_GASOLINE_US_AVG_IQ_LOSS_POINTS * NATIONAL_IQ_GDP_GROWTH_EFFECT_PER_POINT) ** LEADED_GASOLINE_ERA_YEARS - 1","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\Delta W_{Ethyl} \\\\\n= (1 + \\Delta IQ_{lead} \\times \\beta_{IQ})^{T_{lead}} - 1\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.23180677289426121},"EXISTING_DRUGS_EFFICACY_LAG_DEATHS_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[50773539.89066766,169467572.30603462],"conservative":null,"description":"Total deaths from delaying existing drugs over 8.2-year efficacy lag. One-time impact of eliminating Phase 2-4 testing delay for drugs already approved 1962-2024. Based on Lichtenberg (2019) estimate of 12M lives saved annually × 8.2 years efficacy lag. Excludes innovation acceleration effects.","displayName":"Total Deaths from Historical Progress Delays","formatted":"101.61M deaths","formula":"PHARMA_LIVES_SAVED_ANNUAL × EFFICACY_LAG_YEARS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDeaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"deaths","value":101611666.66666666},"EXISTING_DRUGS_EFFICACY_LAG_ECONOMIC_LOSS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[122958411417713.97,527211853028909.2],"conservative":null,"description":"Total economic loss from delaying existing drugs over 8.2-year efficacy lag. One-time benefit of eliminating Phase 2-4 delay. Excludes innovation acceleration effects. Years lost per death uses WHO conditional remaining life expectancy at 60 adjusted to the mean lag-death age (~19 years/death), not life-expectancy-at-birth minus age, which understated remaining years by ~40%.","displayName":"Total Economic Loss from Historical Progress Delays","formatted":"$289.59T","formula":"DEATHS_TOTAL × (REMAINING_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_AT_60 - (MEAN_AGE_OF_DEATH - 60)) × VSLY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nLoss_{lag} = \\text{DEATHS\\_TOTAL} \\times (REMAINING_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_AT_60 - (\\text{MEAN\\_AGE\\_OF\\_DEATH} - 60)) \\times \\text{VSLY}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":289593250000000},"EXPLORATION_RATIO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.001969900859513901,0.0056890560034959905],"conservative":null,"description":"Fraction of possible drug-disease space actually tested (<1%)","displayName":"Therapeutic Frontier Exploration Ratio","formatted":"0.3%","formula":"TESTED / POSSIBLE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nRatio_{explore} = \\frac{N_{tested}}{N_{combos}} = \\frac{32{,}500}{9.5M} = 0.342\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{combos} = N_{safe} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 9{,}500 \\times 1{,}000 = 9.5M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percentage","value":0.0034210526315789475},"FDA_TO_OXFORD_RECOVERY_TRIAL_TIME_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/fda-is-unsafe-and-ineffective.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[19.371905122811942,45.89979412005804],"conservative":null,"description":"Efficacy testing time vs Oxford RECOVERY trial (8.2 years ÷ 3 months = 32.8x slower). Compares efficacy lag only (post-safety Phase II/III) since RECOVERY was an efficacy trial.","displayName":"FDA Efficacy Testing to Oxford RECOVERY Trial Time Multiplier","formatted":"32.8 multiplier","formula":"EFFICACY_LAG_YEARS × MONTHS_PER_YEAR ÷ OXFORD_RECOVERY_TRIAL_DURATION_MONTHS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{FDA:RECOVERY} \\\\\n= T_{lag} \\times \\text{MONTHS\\_PER\\_YEAR} / T_{RECOVERY}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"recovery-trial-82x-cost-reduction","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://manhattan.institute/article/slow-costly-clinical-trials-drag-down-biomedical-breakthroughs","stdError":null,"unit":"multiplier","value":32.8},"FULL_CORPORATE_TAKEOVER_COST_ACTIVIST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/loving-takeover.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Realistic cost to take an activist (non-control) stake across EVERY government-controlling industry at once: military, pharma, tech, insurance, and oil and gas. This is the symmetric activist version of the takeover. Outright majority control of all of them is not even possible (founder and mutual control of Meta, Alphabet, Oracle, and the insurance mutuals), which is exactly why the activist tier, not a 50.1% buyout, is the operative model outside the defense primes.","displayName":"Full Corporate Activist-Stake Cost (All Sectors)","formatted":"$883.90B","formula":"(DEFENSE_PRIMES_MARKET_CAP_US + DEFENSE_PRIMES_MARKET_CAP_ALLIED + GOV_CONTROLLING_SECTORS_TOP5_MARKET_CAP) * INFLUENCE_ACTIVIST_STAKE_FRACTION","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nC_{corp,activist} \\\\\n= (MarketCap_{US} + MarketCap_{allied} \\\\\n+ MarketCap_{sectors}) \\times f_{activist}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":883900000000},"FULL_CORPORATE_TAKEOVER_COST_ACTIVIST_PCT_INVESTABLE_ASSETS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/loving-takeover.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Activist stake across every government-controlling industry as a share of total global investable assets.","displayName":"Full Corporate Activist-Stake Cost as Share of Global Investable Assets","formatted":"0.3%","formula":"FULL_CORPORATE_TAKEOVER_COST_ACTIVIST / GLOBAL_INVESTABLE_ASSETS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nC_{corp,activist}/A_{investable} = \\frac{C_{corp,activist}}{Assets_{invest}} = \\frac{\\$884B}{\\$305T} = 0.29\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{corp,activist} = (MarketCap_{US} + MarketCap_{allied} + MarketCap_{sectors}) \\times f_{activist}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.002898032786885246},"FULL_INFLUENCE_COST_ACTIVIST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/loving-takeover.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Ceiling cost for influence over every government-controlling industry: the buy-outright defense ceiling plus an activist stake in the top-5 lobbying firms of the other four sectors (pharma, tech, insurance, oil and gas). The other sectors use the activist tier because their largest players cannot be majority-acquired anyway (Meta, Alphabet, Oracle founder control). The activist tier follows the Engine No. 1 precedent: a 0.02% stake won three Exxon board seats, so a few percent is a loud voice at every table.","displayName":"Full Influence Package Cost (Ceiling)","formatted":"$1.71T","formula":"DEFENSE_TAKEOVER_COST_TOTAL + INFLUENCE_ACTIVIST_STAKE_FRACTION * GOV_CONTROLLING_SECTORS_TOP5_MARKET_CAP","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nC_{influence} = C_{takeover} + f_{activist} \\times MarketCap_{sectors} = \\$873B + 0.05 \\times \\$16.7T = \\$1.71T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{takeover} = (MarketCap_{US} + MarketCap_{allied}) \\times f_{control} \\times m_{premium}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1708442400000},"FULL_INFLUENCE_COST_PER_HUMAN":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/loving-takeover.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[209.19132084045313,218.10970829082635],"conservative":null,"description":"Per-person cost of the full influence package (defense primes plus activist stakes in every other government-controlling sector) distributed across global population","displayName":"Full Influence Package Cost per Human","formatted":"$213.555","formula":"FULL_INFLUENCE_COST_ACTIVIST / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nC_{influence,pp} = \\frac{C_{influence}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$1.71T}{8B} = \\$214\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{influence} = C_{takeover} + f_{activist} \\times MarketCap_{sectors} = \\$873B + 0.05 \\times \\$16.7T = \\$1.71T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{takeover} = (MarketCap_{US} + MarketCap_{allied}) \\times f_{control} \\times m_{premium}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":213.5553},"FULL_INFLUENCE_PCT_ANNUAL_SAVINGS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/loving-takeover.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.050289874553921574,0.06068463311558671],"conservative":null,"description":"Cost of the full influence package (every government-controlling industry, not just defense) as a share of one year of global saving.","displayName":"Full Influence Cost as Share of Annual Global Saving","formatted":"5.5%","formula":"FULL_INFLUENCE_COST_ACTIVIST / GLOBAL_ANNUAL_SAVINGS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nC_{influence}/S_{annual} = \\frac{C_{influence}}{S_{annual}} = \\frac{\\$1.71T}{\\$31.1T} = 5.5\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{influence} = C_{takeover} + f_{activist} \\times MarketCap_{sectors} = \\$873B + 0.05 \\times \\$16.7T = \\$1.71T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{takeover} = (MarketCap_{US} + MarketCap_{allied}) \\times f_{control} \\times m_{premium}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } S_{annual} = s_{global} \\times GDP_{global} = 27\\% \\times \\$115T = \\$31.1T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.05502229951690821},"FULL_INFLUENCE_PCT_INVESTABLE_ASSETS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/loving-takeover.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Cost of the full influence package (every government-controlling industry, not just defense) as a share of total global investable assets. The broader takeover is still a fraction of one percent of the world's investable wealth.","displayName":"Full Influence Cost as Share of Global Investable Assets","formatted":"0.6%","formula":"FULL_INFLUENCE_COST_ACTIVIST / GLOBAL_INVESTABLE_ASSETS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nC_{influence}/A_{investable} = \\frac{C_{influence}}{Assets_{invest}} = \\frac{\\$1.71T}{\\$305T} = 0.56\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{influence} = C_{takeover} + f_{activist} \\times MarketCap_{sectors} = \\$873B + 0.05 \\times \\$16.7T = \\$1.71T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{takeover} = (MarketCap_{US} + MarketCap_{allied}) \\times f_{control} \\times m_{premium}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.005601450491803279},"GENE_THERAPY_DISEASE_COMBINATIONS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[16305469.334976457,23794439.362736847],"conservative":null,"description":"Gene therapy target-disease combinations (CRISPR, base editing, viral vectors)","displayName":"Gene Therapy Combinations","formatted":"20.00M combinations","formula":"GENES × DISEASES","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCombos_{gene} \\\\\n= N_{genes} \\times N_{diseases,trial} \\\\\n= 20{,}000 \\times 1{,}000 \\\\\n= 20M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"combinations","value":20000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_CONFLICT_DEATHS_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[198383.24728086818,297452.2194966839],"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual conflict deaths globally (sum of combat, terror, state violence)","displayName":"Total Annual Conflict Deaths Globally","formatted":"244,600 deaths/year","formula":"COMBAT + TERROR + STATE_VIOLENCE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDeaths_{conflict} \\\\\n= Deaths_{combat} + Deaths_{state} + Deaths_{terror} \\\\\n= 234{,}000 + 2{,}700 + 8{,}300 \\\\\n= 245{,}000\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"deaths/year","value":244600},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DIRECT_INDIRECT_WAR_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[9957859575912.42,12869937308757.088],"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual cost of war worldwide (direct + indirect costs)","displayName":"Total Annual Cost of War Worldwide","formatted":"11357.10B USD/year","formula":"DIRECT_COSTS + INDIRECT_COSTS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":11357100000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_HUMAN_COST_ACTIVE_COMBAT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1270346845722.8945,3554147057841.0576],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual cost of combat deaths (deaths × VSL)","displayName":"Annual Cost of Combat Deaths","formatted":"2336.00B USD/year","formula":"COMBAT_DEATHS × VSL ","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{combat,human} \\\\\n= Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL \\\\\n= 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M \\\\\n= \\$2.34T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":2336000000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_HUMAN_COST_STATE_VIOLENCE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[12164225511.582016,48163823860.44316],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual cost of state violence deaths (deaths × VSL)","displayName":"Annual Cost of State Violence Deaths","formatted":"27.00B USD/year","formula":"STATE_DEATHS × VSL ","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{state,human} \\\\\n= Deaths_{state} \\times VSL \\\\\n= 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M \\\\\n= \\$27B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":27000000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_HUMAN_COST_TERROR_ATTACKS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[43229024609.01674,131973932099.28983],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual cost of terror deaths (deaths × VSL)","displayName":"Annual Cost of Terror Deaths","formatted":"83.00B USD/year","formula":"TERROR_DEATHS × VSL ","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{terror,human} \\\\\n= Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL \\\\\n= 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M \\\\\n= \\$83B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":83000000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_HUMAN_LIFE_LOSSES_CONFLICT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1337091495804.0884,3711364470105.1885],"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual human life losses from conflict (sum of combat, terror, state violence)","displayName":"Total Annual Human Life Losses from Conflict","formatted":"2446.00B USD/year","formula":"COMBAT_COST + TERROR_COST + STATE_VIOLENCE_COST","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nLoss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":2446000000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_INFRASTRUCTURE_DESTRUCTION_CONFLICT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1651881703569.7668,2104132302183.2659],"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual infrastructure destruction (sum of transportation, energy, communications, water, education, healthcare)","displayName":"Total Annual Infrastructure Destruction","formatted":"1875.00B USD/year","formula":"TRANSPORT + ENERGY + COMMS + WATER + EDUCATION + HEALTHCARE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDamage_{infra,total} \\\\\n= Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} \\\\\n+ Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} \\\\\n= \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B \\\\\n= \\$1.88T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":1875000000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_SAVINGS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[28152801002292.594,33971896234662.227],"conservative":null,"description":"Global annual savings in USD (savings rate × GDP)","displayName":"Global Annual Savings","formatted":"$31.05T","formula":"GLOBAL_SAVINGS_RATE_PCT × GLOBAL_GDP_2025","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nS_{annual} \\\\\n= s_{global} \\times GDP_{global} \\\\\n= 27\\% \\times \\$115T \\\\\n= \\$31.1T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":31050000000000.004},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_SAVINGS_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3517.9222536543098,4249.882351368142],"conservative":null,"description":"Global annual savings divided by global population. Useful as a rough average-person default for prize-contribution sizing.","displayName":"Global Annual Savings Per Capita","formatted":"3,881.25 USD/person/year","formula":"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_SAVINGS / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nS_{annual,pc} = \\frac{S_{annual}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$31.1T}{8B} = \\$3.88K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } S_{annual} = s_{global} \\times GDP_{global} = 27\\% \\times \\$115T = \\$31.1T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person/year","value":3881.2500000000005},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_TRADE_DISRUPTION_CONFLICT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[526075324104.8029,715798886296.2134],"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual trade disruption (sum of shipping, supply chain, energy prices, currency instability)","displayName":"Total Annual Trade Disruption","formatted":"616.00B USD/year","formula":"SHIPPING + SUPPLY_CHAIN + ENERGY_PRICE + CURRENCY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDisruption_{trade} \\\\\n= Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} \\\\\n+ Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} \\\\\n= \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B \\\\\n= \\$616B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":616000000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_WAR_DIRECT_COSTS_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[6520392239758.999,8949105519089.084],"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual direct war costs (military spending + infrastructure + human life + trade disruption)","displayName":"Total Annual Direct War Costs","formatted":"7657.00B USD/year","formula":"MILITARY + INFRASTRUCTURE + HUMAN_LIFE + TRADE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":7657000000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_WAR_INDIRECT_COSTS_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2981301229639.053,4562165112847.497],"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual indirect war costs (opportunity cost + veterans + refugees + environment + mental health + lost productivity)","displayName":"Total Annual Indirect War Costs","formatted":"3700.10B USD/year","formula":"OPPORTUNITY + VETERANS + REFUGEES + ENVIRONMENT + MENTAL_HEALTH + LOST_CAPITAL","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{war,indirect} \\\\\n= Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} \\\\\n+ Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} \\\\\n= \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B \\\\\n= \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":3700100000000},"GLOBAL_AVG_HOURLY_INCOME":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/recruitment-and-propaganda-plan.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[7.040624224923272,7.340784931773243],"conservative":null,"description":"Global average hourly income derived from GDP per capita. Uses average (not median), which overestimates the cost of sharing, making the payoff ratio conservative.","displayName":"Global Average Hourly Income","formatted":"7.1875 USD/hour","formula":"GLOBAL_AVG_INCOME_2025 / ANNUAL_WORKING_HOURS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\bar{w}_{hour} = \\frac{\\bar{y}_{0}}{H_{work}} = \\frac{\\$14.4K}{2{,}000} = \\$7.19\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/hour","value":7.1875},"GLOBAL_AVG_INCOME_2025":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[14081.248449846544,14681.569863546487],"conservative":null,"description":"Global average income (GDP per capita) in 2025 baseline.","displayName":"Global Average Income (2025 Baseline)","formatted":"$14.38K","formula":"GLOBAL_GDP_2025 ÷ GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\bar{y}_{0} \\\\\n= \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} \\\\\n= \\$14.4K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":14375},"GLOBAL_AVG_REMAINING_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[39.57635756619386,46.143119371349954],"conservative":null,"description":"Average remaining lifespan for the median-age person. Conservative: uses life expectancy at birth minus median age, which underestimates remaining years because survivors to age 30 have higher conditional life expectancy.","displayName":"Average Remaining Years (Median Person)","formatted":"42.900000000000006 years","formula":"GLOBAL_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_2024 - GLOBAL_MEDIAN_AGE_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{remaining} \\\\\n= LE_{global} - Age_{median} \\\\\n= 73.4 - 30.5 \\\\\n= 42.9\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":42.900000000000006},"GLOBAL_BULLETS_PURCHASABLE_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/extinction-surplus.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[4664927105287.118,10163949539164.232],"conservative":null,"description":"Number of 5.56mm NATO rounds purchasable with the entire global military budget at bulk procurement prices. Pure purchasing power calculation, not a combat efficiency estimate.","displayName":"Bullets Purchasable with Global Military Budget","formatted":"6800.00B rounds","formula":"GLOBAL_MILITARY_SPENDING_ANNUAL_2024 / BULLET_COST_556_NATO","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{bullets,yr} \\\\\n= \\frac{Spending_{mil}}{c_{bullet}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$2.72T}{\\$0.4} \\\\\n= 6.8T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rounds","value":6800000000000},"GLOBAL_COORDINATION_ACTIVATION_BUDGET":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-protocol-v1.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[20437510992.555267,41938447267.10135],"conservative":null,"description":"Canonical institutional activation threshold: capital required to make participation by the majority-of-humanity coordination target credible through direct referral incentives, verification, payment rails, and global launch operations. This is the main institutional ask, not the prize pool seed benchmark.","displayName":"Global Coordination Activation Budget","formatted":"$30.83B","formula":"GLOBAL_REGISTERED_VOTERS × GLOBAL_COORDINATION_ACTIVATION_COST_PER_PARTICIPANT + GLOBAL_COORDINATION_PLATFORM_AND_OPERATIONS_COST","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nB_{activate} = C_{ops} + N_{voters,global} \\times C_{activate,pp} = \\$4B + 4.13B \\times \\$6.5 = \\$30.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{activate,pp} = R_{activate} + C_{verify,pp} = \\$5 + \\$1.5 = \\$6.5\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":30832926217.5},"GLOBAL_COORDINATION_ACTIVATION_COST_PER_PARTICIPANT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/global-referendum.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3.9998666300660695,9.139289657195699],"conservative":null,"description":"Blended variable activation cost per successful verified participant: direct incentive plus verification and payment operations.","displayName":"Activation Cost per Participant","formatted":"$6.5","formula":"GLOBAL_COORDINATION_ACTIVATION_REWARD_PER_VERIFIED_PARTICIPANT + GLOBAL_COORDINATION_VERIFICATION_AND_PAYMENT_COST_PER_PARTICIPANT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nC_{activate,pp} \\\\\n= R_{activate} + C_{verify,pp} \\\\\n= \\$5 + \\$1.5 \\\\\n= \\$6.5\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":6.5},"GLOBAL_COORDINATION_TARGET_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/global-referendum.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.5054730444214296,0.5270227169305878],"conservative":null,"description":"Majority-of-humanity public coordination target as a share of global population, using global registered voters as the current verified-human headcount proxy.","displayName":"Majority of Humanity Coordination Target","formatted":"51.6%","formula":"GLOBAL_REGISTERED_VOTERS / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nR_{humanity,majority} \\\\\n= \\frac{N_{voters,global}}{Pop_{global}} \\\\\n= \\frac{4.13B}{8B} \\\\\n= 51.6\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.516017811875},"GLOBAL_COST_PER_LIFE_SAVED_MED_RESEARCH_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[11647.144581394623,22390.53430936459],"conservative":null,"description":"Cost per life saved by medical research","displayName":"Cost per Life Saved by Medical Research","formatted":"16,071.429 USD/life","formula":"(RESEARCH_SPENDING × 1B) ÷ LIVES_SAVED","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{life,RD} \\\\\n= \\frac{Spending_{RD}}{Lives_{RD,ann}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$67.5B}{4.2M} \\\\\n= \\$16.1K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/life","value":16071.42857142857},"GLOBAL_DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_ANNUAL_2025":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Combined annual cost of military spending and cybercrime. The 'destructive economy' that competes with the productive economy.","displayName":"Global Destructive Economy (2025)","formatted":"$13.22T","formula":"GLOBAL_MILITARY_SPENDING_ANNUAL_2024 + GLOBAL_CYBERCRIME_COST_ANNUAL_2025","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{destruct} \\\\\n= Spending_{mil} + Cost_{cyber} \\\\\n= \\$2.72T + \\$10.5T \\\\\n= \\$13.2T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":13220000000000},"GLOBAL_DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_PCT_GDP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Destructive economy (military + cybercrime) as percentage of global GDP.","displayName":"Destructive Economy as % of GDP","formatted":"11.5%","formula":"GLOBAL_DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_ANNUAL_2025 / GLOBAL_GDP_2025","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nr_{destruct:GDP} = \\frac{Cost_{destruct}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$13.2T}{\\$115T} = 11.5\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{destruct} = Spending_{mil} + Cost_{cyber} = \\$2.72T + \\$10.5T = \\$13.2T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.11495652173913043},"GLOBAL_DISEASE_DEATHS_PER_MINUTE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/questions.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[95.42295783706231,112.68728174444473],"conservative":null,"description":"Global deaths per minute from all disease and aging","displayName":"Global Deaths per Minute from Disease","formatted":"104.16666666666667 deaths/minute","formula":"GLOBAL_DISEASE_DEATHS_DAILY / 1440","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDeaths_{disease,min} \\\\\n= Deaths_{disease,daily} \\times 0.000694 \\\\\n= 150{,}000 \\times 0.000694 \\\\\n= 104\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"deaths/minute","value":104.16666666666667},"GLOBAL_DISEASE_ECONOMIC_BURDEN_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[251944013945312.84,544272263829645.25],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual welfare cost of avoidable disease globally. Calculated as global DALY burden × eventually avoidable percentage × standard QALY value ($150K). Uses consistent QALY valuation matching all other health impact calculations. Medical costs and productivity losses are NOT added separately to avoid double-counting (QALY valuation already captures these welfare components).","displayName":"Annual Welfare Cost of Avoidable Disease","formatted":"400152.13B USD/year","formula":"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DALY_BURDEN × EVENTUALLY_AVOIDABLE_DALY_PCT × STANDARD_ECONOMIC_QALY_VALUE_USD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nBurden_{disease} \\\\\n= DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times Value_{QALY} \\\\\n= 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times \\$150K \\\\\n= \\$400T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":400152130131680.9},"GLOBAL_DISEASE_TOTAL_MARKET_COST_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-disease.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[11924462024252.91,18328394950626.133],"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual market cost of disease globally: direct medical costs ($9.9T) plus lost productivity from people too sick to work ($5T). This is the cash-cost sum a payer or economy actually bears, distinct from the DALY-based welfare burden, and is deliberately NOT added to that burden to avoid double-counting.","displayName":"Global Annual Total Market Cost of Disease","formatted":"14900.00B USD/year","formula":"GLOBAL_DISEASE_DIRECT_MEDICAL_COST_ANNUAL + GLOBAL_DISEASE_PRODUCTIVITY_LOSS_ANNUAL","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{disease,market} \\\\\n= Cost_{medical,direct} + Loss_{productivity} \\\\\n= \\$9.9T + \\$5T \\\\\n= \\$14.9T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":14900000000000},"GLOBAL_EVENTUALLY_AVOIDABLE_DISEASE_DEATHS_DAILY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/where-am-i-wrong.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[95672.50666696663,157290.95119782313],"conservative":null,"description":"Daily global deaths that are eventually avoidable with sufficient biomedical research. Each day the disease-eradication date slips adds roughly this many deaths to the total schedule cost.","displayName":"Eventually Avoidable Deaths per Day","formatted":"138,941.712 deaths/day","formula":"GLOBAL_DISEASE_DEATHS_DAILY × EVENTUALLY_AVOIDABLE_DEATH_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDeaths_{avoid,daily} \\\\\n= Deaths_{disease,daily} \\times Pct_{avoid,death} \\\\\n= 150{,}000 \\times 92.6\\% \\\\\n= 139{,}000\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"deaths/day","value":138941.7118512781},"GLOBAL_GOVERNMENT_EXPENSE_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Approximate annual global government expenditure, computed as global GDP times the World Bank general-government expense share of GDP.","displayName":"Annual Global Government Expense","formatted":"36547.00B USD/year","formula":"GLOBAL_GDP_2025 × GLOBAL_GOVERNMENT_EXPENSE_PCT_GDP","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nExpense_{gov,global} \\\\\n= GDP_{global} \\times p_{gov,expense} \\\\\n= \\$115T \\times 31.8\\% \\\\\n= \\$36.5T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":36547000000000},"GLOBAL_HALE_GAP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[6.16060699848186,14.15805955518859],"conservative":null,"description":"Gap between life expectancy and healthy life expectancy. Represents years lived with disability or disease that could be recovered by curing diseases.","displayName":"Life Expectancy to HALE Gap","formatted":"10.100000000000009 years","formula":"GLOBAL_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_2024 - GLOBAL_HALE_CURRENT","latex":"\\Delta_{HALE} = LE_{global} - HALE_{0} = 73.4 - 63.3 = 10.1","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":10.100000000000009},"GLOBAL_INDUSTRY_CLINICAL_TRIALS_SPENDING_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[45009083226.00565,70346503740.93391],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual global industry spending on clinical trials (Total - Government)","displayName":"Annual Global Industry Spending on Clinical Trials","formatted":"$55.50B","formula":"TOTAL_CLINICAL_TRIALS - GOVT_CLINICAL_TRIALS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSpending_{trials,industry} \\\\\n= Spending_{trials} - Spending_{trials,gov} \\\\\n= \\$60B - \\$4.5B \\\\\n= \\$55.5B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":55500000000},"GLOBAL_MEDIAN_AFTER_TAX_INCOME_2025":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1709.7574968580254,2565.9293210723577],"conservative":null,"description":"Median after-tax consumable income today: mean income x (1 - military share) x median-to-mean ratio x (1 - tax). Because the ratio is derived from the Gallup anchor, this equals Gallup's measured median with the military slice and taxes removed. The baseline the three scenario trajectories grow from.","displayName":"Global Median After-Tax Consumable Income (2025)","formatted":"$2.14K","formula":"GLOBAL_AVG_INCOME_2025 * (1 - GLOBAL_MILITARY_SHARE_OF_GDP) * GLOBAL_MEDIAN_TO_MEAN_INCOME_RATIO * (1 - GLOBAL_EFFECTIVE_TAX_RATE_MEDIAN)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\tilde{m}_{0} = \\bar{y}_{0} \\times (1 - s_{mil}) \\times \\rho_{med} \\times (1 - \\tau_{med})\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil} = \\frac{Spending_{mil}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$2.72T}{\\$115T} = 2.37\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\rho_{med} = \\frac{\\tilde{y}_{gallup}}{\\bar{y}_{0}} = \\frac{\\$2.92K}{\\$14.4K} = 0.203\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":2138.201739130435},"GLOBAL_MEDIAN_TO_MEAN_INCOME_RATIO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.16278079688934774,0.24386852628711342],"conservative":null,"description":"Global median-to-mean income ratio, DERIVED from the Gallup anchor against mean income (GDP per capita): the median human receives about twenty-one cents of the average dollar. Pre-tax basis on both sides. The derivation replaces a hand-chosen 0.30 'from Gallup's range', which made the model's agreement with Gallup circular. This single number is why GDP per capita overstates what a typical person earns by roughly 5x.","displayName":"Global Median-to-Mean Income Ratio","formatted":"0.2031304347826087 ratio","formula":"GALLUP_GLOBAL_MEDIAN_INCOME_PER_CAPITA ÷ GLOBAL_AVG_INCOME_2025","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\rho_{med} = \\frac{\\tilde{y}_{gallup}}{\\bar{y}_{0}} = \\frac{\\$2.92K}{\\$14.4K} = 0.203\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":0.2031304347826087},"GLOBAL_MILITARY_SHARE_OF_GDP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Military spending as a share of global GDP (SIPRI spending over IMF output). The regrettables deduction in the median consumable-income track: output that is made and counted but cannot be eaten. Military ONLY, by design: it is hard data and the book's actual subject. Cybercrime was removed from this deduction (v2): loss estimates count transfers and double-counted indirect costs, not uneaten output.","displayName":"Military Share of Global GDP","formatted":"2.4%","formula":"GLOBAL_MILITARY_SPENDING_ANNUAL_2024 ÷ GLOBAL_GDP_2025","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\ns_{mil} \\\\\n= \\frac{Spending_{mil}}{GDP_{global}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$2.72T}{\\$115T} \\\\\n= 2.37\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.02365217391304348},"GLOBAL_MILITARY_SPENDING_PER_CAPITA_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[333.05213724854434,347.2510437290995],"conservative":null,"description":"Per capita military spending globally","displayName":"Per Capita Military Spending Globally","formatted":"340 USD/person/year","formula":"MILITARY_SPENDING ÷ POPULATION","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSpending_{mil,pc} \\\\\n= \\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Pop_{global}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$2.72T}{8B} \\\\\n= \\$340\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person/year","value":340},"GLOBAL_MILITARY_SPENDING_POST_TREATY_ANNUAL_2024":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/aligning-incentives.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Global military spending after 1% treaty reduction","displayName":"Global Military Spending After 1% Treaty Reduction","formatted":"2692.80B USD/year","formula":"MILITARY_SPENDING × (1 - REDUCTION)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSpending_{mil,post} \\\\\n= Spending_{mil} \\times (1 - Reduce_{treaty}) \\\\\n= \\$2.72T \\times (1 - 1\\%) \\\\\n= \\$2.69T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":2692800000000},"GLOBAL_MILITARY_SPENDING_REAL_CAGR_20YR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/1-percent-treaty.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Real compound annual growth rate of global military spending over the last 20 years (2005-2024), computed from SIPRI World totals in constant 2023 USD. This window deliberately includes the 2011-2014 drawdown, so it cannot be attacked as trough-to-peak cherry picking. The 20-year rate (~2.75%) is actually lower than the 10-year rate (3.4%) precisely because the drawdown pulls the average down.","displayName":"Military Spending Real CAGR (20-Year)","formatted":"2.8%","formula":"(GLOBAL_MILITARY_SPENDING_ANNUAL_2024 / GLOBAL_MILITARY_SPENDING_ANNUAL_2005)^(1/19) - 1","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\ng_{mil,20yr} \\\\\n= \\left(\\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Spending_{mil,2005}}\\right)^{\\frac{1}{19}} - 1\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.027589264230032606},"GLOBAL_POLITICAL_REFORM_INVESTMENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/cost-of-change-analysis.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[71699363255.38586,205706800800.16714],"conservative":null,"description":"Estimated global advocacy investment for policy reform. Calculated as US costs × global ratio (based on discretionary spending). Upper bound representing full democratic engagement at scale.","displayName":"Global Political Reform Investment","formatted":"$127.55B","formula":"US_POLITICAL_REFORM × GLOBAL_RATIO","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{global,reform} = Cost_{US,total} \\times \\rho_{global/US} = \\$25.5B \\times 5 = \\$128B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{US,total} = (Cost_{campaign} + Cost_{lobby} \\times 2) \\times \\mu_{effort} + Cost_{career}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{US,congress} = N_{congress} \\times V_{post-office} = 535 \\times \\$10M = \\$5.35B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":127550000000},"GLOBAL_TOTAL_HEALTH_AND_WAR_COST_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[263510883775677.9,555878388235290],"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual welfare cost of war and disease. Disease burden uses DALY-based welfare valuation; war costs use direct + indirect economic costs. Symptomatic treatment costs NOT added separately (already captured in QALY valuation).","displayName":"Total Annual Cost of War and Disease","formatted":"411509.23B USD/year","formula":"WAR_TOTAL_COSTS + DISEASE_WELFARE_BURDEN","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{health+war} = Cost_{war,total} + Burden_{disease} = \\$11.4T + \\$400T = \\$412T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Burden_{disease} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times Value_{QALY} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times \\$150K = \\$400T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":411509230131680.9},"GLOBAL_WAR_COST_LIFETIME_CUMULATIVE_BASELINE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2823195785050465.5,3648811522893713],"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative global war cost over 80 years (one human lifespan) on the baseline trajectory, where war costs keep compounding at SIPRI's 20-year real CAGR (2.76%). This is what the world pays if nothing changes.","displayName":"Cumulative 80-Year War Cost (Baseline Trajectory)","formatted":"$3219.90T","formula":"C × ((1 + g)^80 - 1) / g","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{war,cum,baseline} = C \\times ((1 + g)^{80} - 1) / g\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{mil,20yr} = \\left(\\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Spending_{mil,2005}}\\right)^{\\frac{1}{19}} - 1\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":3219900482223735},"GLOBAL_WAR_COST_LIFETIME_CUMULATIVE_TREATY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[788662478412263.8,1019299034853561.2],"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative global war cost over 80 years under the treaty trajectory, where costs drop 1% immediately and then hold flat (no growth). This is what the world pays after the treaty passes.","displayName":"Cumulative 80-Year War Cost (Treaty Trajectory)","formatted":"$899.48T","formula":"C × (1 - TREATY_REDUCTION_PCT) × 80","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{war,cum,treaty} = C \\times (1 - Reduce_{treaty}) \\times 80\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":899482320000000},"GLOBAL_WAR_COST_LIFETIME_PER_PERSON_ABOLITION_COMPOUNDED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[213917447.5600726,276843943.919824],"conservative":null,"description":"Per-person future value at year 80 of the full baseline war cost stream, compounded at the illustrative long-term real return rate (13%, Nasdaq-100 historical). This is the hypothetical opportunity cost per person of running the baseline SIPRI trajectory rather than abolishing war entirely and redirecting every dollar. Serves as the ceiling on the peace dividend ladder: the treaty gets you a large fraction of this number, full abolition gets you all of it.","displayName":"Per-Person War Cost (Full Abolition) Compounded at 13% over 80 Years","formatted":"$244.28M","formula":"[Σ_{t=0..79} C(1+g)^t × (1+r)^(79-t)] / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nFV_{pp,abolition} = [Σ_{t=0..79} C(1+g)^t \\times (1+r)^{79-t}] / Pop_{global}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{mil,20yr} = \\left(\\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Spending_{mil,2005}}\\right)^{\\frac{1}{19}} - 1\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":244281227.625377},"GLOBAL_WAR_COST_LIFETIME_PER_PERSON_BASELINE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/1-percent-treaty.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[352458.97691894183,456139.1992711798],"conservative":null,"description":"Per-person 80-year lifetime tab for global war costs on the SIPRI baseline trajectory (2.76% real growth). About 3.5x the flat-assumption figure the chapter opens with, because war costs have been compounding while nobody updated the invoice.","displayName":"Per-Person 80-Year War Cost (Baseline Trajectory)","formatted":"$402.49K","formula":"GLOBAL_WAR_COST_LIFETIME_CUMULATIVE_BASELINE / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{war,pp,baseline} = \\frac{Cost_{war,cum,baseline}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$3220T}{8B} = \\$402K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,cum,baseline} = C \\times ((1 + g)^{80} - 1) / g\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{mil,20yr} = \\left(\\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Spending_{mil,2005}}\\right)^{\\frac{1}{19}} - 1\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":402487.5602779669},"GLOBAL_WAR_COST_LIFETIME_PER_PERSON_FLAT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[99454.29975529216,128710.02762085375],"conservative":null,"description":"Per-person 80-year lifetime tab for global war costs, assuming costs stay flat at today's level. This is the conservative floor the chapter opens with. The actual figure is higher because war costs have been compounding in real terms.","displayName":"Per-Person 80-Year War Cost (Flat Assumption)","formatted":"$113.57K","formula":"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DIRECT_INDIRECT_WAR_COST × 80 / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{war,pp,flat} = Cost_{war,total} \\times \\frac{80}{Pop_{global}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":113571},"GLOBAL_WAR_COST_YEARS_UNTIL_EXCEEDS_GDP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[80.47013126439502,89.89607010684884],"conservative":null,"description":"Years until annual war cost exceeds current world GDP at the SIPRI 20-year real growth rate. At ~2.76% real growth and $11.4T current war cost, this happens in under a century. The baseline trajectory is therefore a countdown, not a plan.","displayName":"Years Until Baseline War Cost Exceeds Current World GDP","formatted":"85.06497145786949 years","formula":"log(GLOBAL_GDP_2025 / GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DIRECT_INDIRECT_WAR_COST) / log(1 + g_{mil,20yr})","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{GDP} = log\\left(\\frac{GDP_{global}}{Cost_{war,total}}\\right) / log(1 + g_{mil,20yr})\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{mil,20yr} = \\left(\\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Spending_{mil,2005}}\\right)^{\\frac{1}{19}} - 1\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":85.06497145786949},"GLOBAL_WAR_COST_YEAR_80_BASELINE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[87847754062784.03,113537962539459.39],"conservative":null,"description":"Projected annual war cost in year 80 under the baseline trajectory, assuming the SIPRI 20-year real CAGR continues. At ~2.76% real growth, this approaches current world GDP (which is why the baseline trajectory breaks math around year 85).","displayName":"Annual War Cost in Year 80 (Baseline Trajectory)","formatted":"100191.79B USD/year","formula":"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DIRECT_INDIRECT_WAR_COST × (1 + g_{mil,20yr})^80","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{war,yr80} = Cost_{war,total} \\times (1 + g_{mil,20yr})^{80}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{mil,20yr} = \\left(\\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Spending_{mil,2005}}\\right)^{\\frac{1}{19}} - 1\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":100191785198480.03},"HEALTHCARE_VS_MILITARY_MULTIPLIER_RATIO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[4.666266289074791,11.074842364598574],"conservative":null,"description":"Ratio of healthcare to military fiscal multipliers. Healthcare investment generates 7× more economic activity per dollar than military spending.","displayName":"Healthcare vs Military Multiplier Ratio","formatted":"7.166666666666667 x","formula":"ECONOMIC_MULTIPLIER_HEALTHCARE_INVESTMENT / ECONOMIC_MULTIPLIER_MILITARY_SPENDING","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nr_{health/mil} \\\\\n= \\frac{k_{health}}{k_{mil}} \\\\\n= \\frac{4.3}{0.6} \\\\\n= 7.17\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":7.166666666666667},"HUMAN_LAUGHS_PER_HEALTHY_LIFE_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/joke.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1847.9197054221424,14225.322119807379],"conservative":null,"description":"Laughs occurring across one healthy life-year, computed as the adult daily laughter rate multiplied by days in a year. The conversion factor between DALYs averted (healthy life-years restored) and total laughs preserved.","displayName":"Human Laughs per Healthy Life-Year","formatted":"6,205 laughs","formula":"HUMAN_LAUGHS_PER_DAY_AVERAGE × 365","latex":"L_{year} = L_{day} \\times 365 = 17 \\times 365 = 6{,}200","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"laughs","value":6205},"IAB_MECHANISM_BENEFIT_COST_RATIO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/incentive-alignment-bonds-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[204.19988524856137,256.4992872597656],"conservative":null,"description":"Benefit-Cost Ratio of the IAB mechanism itself","displayName":"IAB Mechanism Benefit-Cost Ratio","formatted":"229.61531707317073 ratio","formula":"TREATY_PEACE_PLUS_RD_BENEFITS ÷ IAB_MECHANISM_COST","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nBCR_{IAB} = \\frac{Benefit_{peace+RD}}{Cost_{IAB,ann}} = \\frac{\\$172B}{\\$750M} = 230\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace+RD} = Benefit_{peace,soc} + Benefit_{RD,ann} = \\$114B + \\$58.6B = \\$172B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{RD,ann} = Spending_{trials} \\times Reduce_{pct} = \\$60B \\times 97.7\\% = \\$58.6B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Reduce_{pct} = 1 - \\frac{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}}{Cost_{P3,pt}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$929}{\\$41K} = 97.7\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"https://iab.warondisease.org##welfare-analysis","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://iab.warondisease.org##welfare-analysis","stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":229.61531707317073},"IAB_POLITICAL_INCENTIVE_FUNDING_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Annual funding for IAB political incentive mechanism (independent expenditures supporting high-scoring politicians, post-office fellowship endowments, Public Good Score infrastructure)","displayName":"Annual IAB Political Incentive Funding","formatted":"2.72B USD/year","formula":"TREATY_FUNDING × IAB_POLITICAL_INCENTIVE_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nFunding_{political,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{political} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":2720000000},"IAB_VS_DEFENSE_LOBBY_RATIO_AT_1PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Ratio of IAB political incentive funding to defense industry lobbying at 1% treaty level. At just 1%, the health lobby already outguns the defense lobby by this factor.","displayName":"IAB vs Defense Lobbying Ratio at 1% Treaty","formatted":"13.737373737373737 x","formula":"IAB_POLITICAL_INCENTIVE_FUNDING_ANNUAL / DEFENSE_LOBBYING_ANNUAL","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{IAB:defense} = \\frac{Funding_{political,ann}}{Lobby_{def,ann}} = \\frac{\\$2.72B}{\\$198M} = 13.7\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{political,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{political} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":13.737373737373737},"INDUSTRY_VS_GOVERNMENT_CLINICAL_TRIALS_SPENDING_RATIO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/global-government-medical-research-spending.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[8.23280431702055,19.274593011344518],"conservative":null,"description":"Ratio of Industry to Government spending on clinical trials (approx 90/10 split)","displayName":"Ratio of Industry to Government Clinical Trials Spending","formatted":"12.333333333333334 ratio","formula":"(TOTAL - GOVT) / GOVT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nRatio_{ind:gov} \\\\\n= \\frac{Spending_{trials}}{Spending_{trials,gov}} - 1 \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$60B}{\\$4.5B} - 1 \\\\\n= 12.3\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"industry-vs-government-trial-spending-split","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://www.appliedclinicaltrialsonline.com/view/sizing-clinical-research-market","stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":12.333333333333334},"LIFE_EXPECTANCY_GAIN_1883_1962_YEARS_PER_DECADE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3.822672943638258,3.9386155943669943],"conservative":null,"description":"US life expectancy linear gain rate 1883-1962 (pre-Kefauver-Harris).","displayName":"Life Expectancy Gain Rate (1883-1962)","formatted":"3.8802531645569616 years/decade","formula":"(life_exp_1962 - life_exp_1880) / 7.9 decades","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\Delta LE_{pre62} \\\\\n= \\frac{LE_{US,1962} - LE_{US,1880}}{7.9} \\\\\n= \\frac{70.1 - 39.4}{7.9} \\\\\n= 3.88\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"life-expectancy-increase-pre-1962","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/data/us-life-expectancy-fda-budget-1543-2019.csv","stdError":null,"unit":"years/decade","value":3.8802531645569616},"LIFE_EXPECTANCY_GAIN_1962_2019_YEARS_PER_DECADE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1.494347974455527,1.5930701240500609],"conservative":null,"description":"US life expectancy linear gain rate 1962-2019 (post-Kefauver-Harris).","displayName":"Life Expectancy Gain Rate (1962-2019)","formatted":"1.5435087719298248 years/decade","formula":"(life_exp_2019 - life_exp_1962) / 5.7 decades","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\Delta LE_{post62} \\\\\n= \\frac{LE_{US,2019} - LE_{US,1962}}{5.7} \\\\\n= \\frac{78.9 - 70.1}{5.7} \\\\\n= 1.54\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"post-1962-life-expectancy-slowdown","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/data/us-life-expectancy-fda-budget-1543-2019.csv","stdError":null,"unit":"years/decade","value":1.5435087719298248},"LOST_PROSPERITY_LIFETIME_DAMAGES_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[7806172.126985428,66540191.69289716],"conservative":null,"description":"Representative full-life cohort exposure: lifetime lost earnings under the 8-channel compound peace economy counterfactual, undiscounted, over WHO global life expectancy at birth. NOT a uniform per-individual award. A 5-year-old, 45-year-old, and 85-year-old plaintiff would each have a different remaining-life horizon; this number is the representative full-cohort exposure used as the single-theory headline. Implicitly captures war deaths, property destruction, and medical opportunity cost via their drag on compound growth, so cannot be added to the body-count ledger.","displayName":"Lost-Prosperity-Only Lifetime Damages, Representative Full-Life Cohort","formatted":"23.43M USD/person","formula":"WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_LOST_GDP_PER_CAPITA × GLOBAL_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{prosperity,life,pc} = GDP_{pc,lost} \\times LE_{global} = \\$319K \\times 73.4 = \\$23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{pc,lost} = GDP_{pc,peace} - \\bar{y}_{0} = \\$334K - \\$14.4K = \\$319K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\begin{gathered}\nGDP_{pc,peace} \\\\\n= GDP_{pc,1900} \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\bar{y}_{0}}{GDP_{pc,1900}}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + g_{war,penalty}\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$3.15K \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\$14.4K}{\\$3.15K}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + 2.6\\%\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$334K\n\\end{gathered}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":23433737.049071178},"LOST_PROSPERITY_LIFETIME_DAMAGES_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[62501274245540070,532136170397581440],"conservative":null,"description":"Global lifetime lost prosperity damages, undiscounted, WHO global life expectancy horizon. Single coherent damages theory under corporate-liability lost-profits doctrine: the integral of the productive economy that didn't happen because of the destructive economy. Cannot be added to the body-count ledger; replaces it as a single-theory pleading.","displayName":"Lost-Prosperity-Only Lifetime Damages Total (Cohort Horizon)","formatted":"$187469.90T","formula":"WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_LOST_GDP_GLOBAL × GLOBAL_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{prosperity,life} = GDP_{lost,total} \\times LE_{global} = \\$2550T \\times 73.4 = \\$187000T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{lost,total} = GDP_{pc,lost} \\times Pop_{global} = \\$319K \\times 8B = \\$2550T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{pc,lost} = GDP_{pc,peace} - \\bar{y}_{0} = \\$334K - \\$14.4K = \\$319K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\begin{gathered}\nGDP_{pc,peace} \\\\\n= GDP_{pc,1900} \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\bar{y}_{0}}{GDP_{pc,1900}}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + g_{war,penalty}\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$3.15K \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\$14.4K}{\\$3.15K}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + 2.6\\%\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$334K\n\\end{gathered}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":187469896392569400},"LOST_PROSPERITY_NPV_PERPETUITY_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[3544448.4758989443,30228806.58055969],"conservative":null,"description":"Net present value of perpetual annual lost-income flow per representative living human, at the standard 3% social discount rate, under a no-cure/no-convergence baseline. Sensitivity exposure for the corporate-liability lost-profits theory. Treats the lost-prosperity flow as continuing indefinitely; a finite-horizon convergence assumption would shrink this slightly (~5% reduction at 100 years). Single-theory pleading; cannot be added to the body-count ledger.","displayName":"Lost-Prosperity-Only NPV Perpetuity Per Capita (3%, No-Cure Baseline)","formatted":"10.64M USD/person","formula":"WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_LOST_GDP_PER_CAPITA / NPV_DISCOUNT_RATE_STANDARD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{prosperity,NPV,pc} = \\frac{GDP_{pc,lost}}{r_{discount}} = \\frac{\\$319K}{3\\%} = \\$10.6M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{pc,lost} = GDP_{pc,peace} - \\bar{y}_{0} = \\$334K - \\$14.4K = \\$319K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\begin{gathered}\nGDP_{pc,peace} \\\\\n= GDP_{pc,1900} \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\bar{y}_{0}}{GDP_{pc,1900}}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + g_{war,penalty}\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$3.15K \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\$14.4K}{\\$3.15K}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + 2.6\\%\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$334K\n\\end{gathered}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":10642024.091312978},"LOST_PROSPERITY_NPV_PERPETUITY_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[28372858541795516,241452842879261380],"conservative":null,"description":"Net present value of perpetual lost-income flow globally, at the standard 3% social discount rate, under a no-cure/no-convergence baseline. Sensitivity exposure under corporate-liability lost-profits doctrine. Cannot be added to the body-count ledger.","displayName":"Lost-Prosperity-Only NPV Perpetuity Total (3%, No-Cure Baseline)","formatted":"$85136.19T","formula":"WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_LOST_GDP_GLOBAL / NPV_DISCOUNT_RATE_STANDARD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{prosperity,NPV} = \\frac{GDP_{lost,total}}{r_{discount}} = \\frac{\\$2550T}{3\\%} = \\$85100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{lost,total} = GDP_{pc,lost} \\times Pop_{global} = \\$319K \\times 8B = \\$2550T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{pc,lost} = GDP_{pc,peace} - \\bar{y}_{0} = \\$334K - \\$14.4K = \\$319K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\begin{gathered}\nGDP_{pc,peace} \\\\\n= GDP_{pc,1900} \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\bar{y}_{0}}{GDP_{pc,1900}}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + g_{war,penalty}\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$3.15K \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\$14.4K}{\\$3.15K}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + 2.6\\%\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$334K\n\\end{gathered}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":85136192730503820},"MECHANISM_COURT_EV":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/proof/wishonias-wager.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[9957859575.91242,12869937308.757088],"conservative":null,"description":"Expected annual social value from the Court of Humanity: P(success) * annual peace dividend. Expenditure ($30M).","displayName":"Court of Humanity Expected Social Value","formatted":"$11.36B","formula":"MECHANISM_COURT_OF_HUMANITY_P_SUCCESS * PEACE_DIVIDEND_ANNUAL_SOCIETAL_BENEFIT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nEV_{court} = P_{court} \\times Benefit_{peace,soc} = 0.1 \\times \\$114B = \\$11.4B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":11357100000},"MECHANISM_DFDA_EV":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/proof/wishonias-wager.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[69705017031.38693,90089561161.2996],"conservative":null,"description":"Expected annual social value from the dFDA: P(success) * annual peace dividend. Platform build is expenditure ($500M).","displayName":"dFDA Expected Social Value","formatted":"$79.50B","formula":"MECHANISM_DFDA_P_SUCCESS * PEACE_DIVIDEND_ANNUAL_SOCIETAL_BENEFIT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nEV_{dFDA} = P_{dFDA} \\times Benefit_{peace,soc} = 0.7 \\times \\$114B = \\$79.5B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":79499700000},"MECHANISM_IAB_EV":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/proof/wishonias-wager.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[59747157455.47452,77219623852.54251],"conservative":null,"description":"Expected annual social value from IABs: P(success) * annual peace dividend. Investor capital is returned with interest, not spent.","displayName":"IAB Expected Social Value","formatted":"$68.14B","formula":"MECHANISM_IAB_P_SUCCESS * PEACE_DIVIDEND_ANNUAL_SOCIETAL_BENEFIT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nEV_{IAB} = P_{IAB} \\times Benefit_{peace,soc} = 0.6 \\times \\$114B = \\$68.1B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":68142600000},"MECHANISM_IAB_NET_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/proof/wishonias-wager.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[33584169.693843514,73778917.59930237],"conservative":null,"description":"Net annual cost of IABs to EOS: administration only (investor capital is returned, not spent)","displayName":"IAB Net Cost (Annual)","formatted":"$50.00M","formula":"TREATY_CAMPAIGN_TOTAL_COST * MECHANISM_IAB_ADMIN_RATE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nC_{IAB,net} = Cost_{campaign} \\times r_{IAB,admin} = \\$1B \\times 0.05 = \\$50M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{campaign} = Budget_{viral,base} + Budget_{lobby,treaty} + Budget_{reserve} = \\$250M + \\$650M + \\$100M = \\$1B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":50000000},"MECHANISM_LOVING_TAKEOVER_EV":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/proof/wishonias-wager.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[94599665971.16798,122264404433.19234],"conservative":null,"description":"Expected annual social value from the Loving Takeover: P(success) * annual peace dividend. Capital is deployed into shares (retained and appreciating), not spent.","displayName":"Loving Takeover Expected Social Value","formatted":"$107.89B","formula":"MECHANISM_LOVING_TAKEOVER_P_SUCCESS * PEACE_DIVIDEND_ANNUAL_SOCIETAL_BENEFIT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nEV_{takeover} = P_{takeover} \\times Benefit_{peace,soc} = 0.95 \\times \\$114B = \\$108B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":107892450000},"MECHANISM_LOVING_TAKEOVER_NET_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/proof/wishonias-wager.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Net annual cost of the Loving Takeover: opportunity cost only (capital deployed into shares is retained, not spent). At 2% annual opportunity cost rate.","displayName":"Loving Takeover Net Cost (Annual)","formatted":"$17.46B","formula":"DEFENSE_TAKEOVER_COST_TOTAL * MECHANISM_OPPORTUNITY_COST_RATE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nC_{takeover,net} = C_{takeover} \\times r_{opp} = \\$873B \\times 0.02 = \\$17.5B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{takeover} = (MarketCap_{US} + MarketCap_{allied}) \\times f_{control} \\times m_{premium}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":17458848000},"MECHANISM_REFERENDUM_EV":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/proof/wishonias-wager.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[29873578727.73726,38609811926.271255],"conservative":null,"description":"Expected annual social value from the global referendum: P(success) * annual peace dividend. Expenditure ($250M).","displayName":"Referendum Expected Social Value","formatted":"$34.07B","formula":"MECHANISM_REFERENDUM_P_SUCCESS * PEACE_DIVIDEND_ANNUAL_SOCIETAL_BENEFIT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nEV_{referendum} = P_{referendum} \\times Benefit_{peace,soc} = 0.3 \\times \\$114B = \\$34.1B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":34071300000},"MECHANISM_SHIRT_CASCADE_EV":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/proof/wishonias-wager.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[6361758232.92724,57842488950.305374],"conservative":null,"description":"Expected annual social value from the shirt cascade: P(success) * annual peace dividend. Expenditure ($50M).","displayName":"Shirt Cascade Expected Social Value","formatted":"$28.39B","formula":"MECHANISM_SHIRT_CASCADE_P_SUCCESS * PEACE_DIVIDEND_ANNUAL_SOCIETAL_BENEFIT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nEV_{shirt} = P_{shirt} \\times Benefit_{peace,soc} = 0.25 \\times \\$114B = \\$28.4B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } P_{shirt} = P_{cascade,shirt} = 25\\% = 0.25\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":28392750000},"MECHANISM_SHIRT_CASCADE_P_SUCCESS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/proof/wishonias-wager.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[0.05526571885183439,0.5088070799161755],"conservative":null,"description":"Probability of treaty passage given full funding of the shirt cascade seed program.","displayName":"P(Success | Shirt Cascade Funded)","formatted":"0.25 ratio","formula":"SHIRT_CASCADE_PROBABILITY_GIVEN_SEED","latex":"P_{shirt} = P_{cascade,shirt} = 25\\% = 0.25","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":0.25},"MECHANISM_TREATY_CAMPAIGN_EV":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/proof/wishonias-wager.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[39831438303.64968,51479749235.02835],"conservative":null,"description":"Expected annual social value from the treaty campaign: P(success) * annual peace dividend. Lobbying + referendum is expenditure ($1B).","displayName":"Treaty Campaign Expected Social Value","formatted":"$45.43B","formula":"MECHANISM_TREATY_CAMPAIGN_P_SUCCESS * PEACE_DIVIDEND_ANNUAL_SOCIETAL_BENEFIT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nEV_{campaign} = P_{campaign} \\times Benefit_{peace,soc} = 0.4 \\times \\$114B = \\$45.4B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":45428400000},"MEDICAL_RESEARCH_PCT_OF_DISEASE_BURDEN":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.00011585714525850428,0.0002637563034894304],"conservative":null,"description":"Medical research spending as percentage of total disease burden","displayName":"Medical Research Spending as Percentage of Total Disease Burden","formatted":"0.0%","formula":"MED_RESEARCH ÷ TOTAL_BURDEN","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nPct_{RD:burden} = \\frac{Spending_{RD}}{Cost_{health+war}} = \\frac{\\$67.5B}{\\$412T} = 0.0164\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{health+war} = Cost_{war,total} + Burden_{disease} = \\$11.4T + \\$400T = \\$412T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Burden_{disease} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times Value_{QALY} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times \\$150K = \\$400T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.00016403034259620457},"MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_OBSERVED_ANCHOR_COSTS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Sum of observed anchor costs for major medical toolchain programs. This is anchor evidence for the prosecutor reserve, not a claim that these programs alone cure disease.","displayName":"Observed Medical Toolchain Anchor Costs","formatted":"$58.63B","formula":"HGP + CRISPR + BRAIN + PCORnet + HITECH + OWS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nC_{tool,anchors} \\\\\n= C_{tool,HGP} + C_{tool,CRISPR} + C_{tool,BRAIN} \\\\\n+ C_{tool,PCORnet} + C_{tool,EHR} + C_{tool,OWS} \\\\\n= \\$2.7B + \\$3.1B + \\$4.5B + \\$325M + \\$30B + \\$18B \\\\\n= \\$58.6B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":58625000000},"MILITARY_TO_CLINICAL_TRIALS_SPENDING_RATIO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[36.266666666666666,54.4],"conservative":null,"description":"Ratio of global military spending to all clinical trials spending (government + industry + nonprofit)","displayName":"Ratio of Military to Clinical Trials Spending","formatted":"45.333333333333336 ratio","formula":"MILITARY_SPENDING / TOTAL_CLINICAL_TRIALS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nRatio_{mil:trials} \\\\\n= \\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Spending_{trials}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$2.72T}{\\$60B} \\\\\n= 45.3\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":45.333333333333336},"MILITARY_TO_GOVERNMENT_CLINICAL_TRIALS_SPENDING_RATIO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/1-percent-treaty.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[453.3333333333333,888.035547202759],"conservative":null,"description":"Ratio of global military spending to government clinical trials spending","displayName":"Ratio of Military to Government Clinical Trials Spending","formatted":"604.4444444444445 ratio","formula":"MILITARY_SPENDING / GOVT_CLINICAL_TRIALS_SPENDING","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nRatio_{mil:gov} \\\\\n= \\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Spending_{trials,gov}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$2.72T}{\\$4.5B} \\\\\n= 604\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":604.4444444444445},"MILITARY_VS_MEDICAL_RESEARCH_RATIO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[34.259476196140994,47.9341909820133],"conservative":null,"description":"Ratio of military spending to medical research spending","displayName":"Ratio of Military Spending to Medical Research Spending","formatted":"40.2962962962963 ratio","formula":"MILITARY_SPENDING ÷ MEDICAL_RESEARCH","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nRatio_{mil:RD} \\\\\n= \\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Spending_{RD}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$2.72T}{\\$67.5B} \\\\\n= 40.3\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":40.2962962962963},"MISALLOCATION_FACTOR_DEATH_VS_SAVING":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1968.4054369008738,4190.285687355618],"conservative":null,"description":"Misallocation factor: cost to kill vs cost to save","displayName":"Misallocation Factor: Cost to Kill vs Cost to Save","formatted":"2,889.06 x","formula":"COST_PER_DEATH ÷ COST_PER_LIFE_SAVED","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{misalloc} = \\frac{Cost_{war,total}}{Deaths_{conflict} \\times Cost_{life,RD}} = \\frac{\\$11.4T}{245{,}000 \\times \\$16.1K} = 2{,}890\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{conflict} = Deaths_{combat} + Deaths_{state} + Deaths_{terror} = 234{,}000 + 2{,}700 + 8{,}300 = 245{,}000\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{life,RD} = \\frac{Spending_{RD}}{Lives_{RD,ann}} = \\frac{\\$67.5B}{4.2M} = \\$16.1K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":2889.0596892886347},"MRNA_THERAPEUTIC_COMBINATIONS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[16305469.334976457,23794439.362736847],"conservative":null,"description":"mRNA therapeutic combinations (protein replacement, vaccines, enzyme delivery)","displayName":"mRNA Therapeutic Combinations","formatted":"20.00M combinations","formula":"PROTEINS × DISEASES","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCombos_{mRNA} \\\\\n= N_{genes} \\times N_{diseases,trial} \\\\\n= 20{,}000 \\times 1{,}000 \\\\\n= 20M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"combinations","value":20000000},"NIH_TRADITIONAL_TRIAL_MAX_EFFICIENCY_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/nih-fails-2-institute-health.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[0.0047561523104008305,0.07842096599081838],"conservative":null,"description":"Maximum efficiency of NIH traditional Phase 3 trials relative to pragmatic trials, expressed as a percentage. Calculated as pragmatic cost / traditional cost. This is a CEILING on NIH trial efficiency because: (1) only 3.3% of NIH budget goes to clinical trials at all, and (2) the other 96.7% funds basic research with far lower marginal value when thousands of safe compounds already await testing.","displayName":"NIH Traditional Trial Maximum Efficiency vs Pragmatic (%)","formatted":"2.3%","formula":"PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_COST ÷ TRADITIONAL_PHASE3_COST","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\eta_{NIH,max} \\\\\n= \\frac{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}}{Cost_{P3,pt}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$929}{\\$41K} \\\\\n= 2.27\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.022658536585365853},"NUCLEAR_WINTER_OVERKILL_FACTOR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/extinction-surplus.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[42.571949770039915,198.19866204402177],"conservative":null,"description":"How many times the global nuclear arsenal exceeds the threshold for civilizational collapse via regional-scale nuclear winter (~100 warheads, ~5 Tg soot, ~2 billion famine deaths, global food system collapse). The arsenal-based overkill factor against the apocalypse the median human experiences.","displayName":"Nuclear Winter Overkill Factor","formatted":"122.41 x","formula":"GLOBAL_WARHEAD_COUNT / NUCLEAR_WINTER_WARHEAD_THRESHOLD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nOverkill_{winter} \\\\\n= \\frac{W_{global}}{W_{winter}} \\\\\n= \\frac{12{,}200}{100} \\\\\n= 122\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":122.41},"NUCLEAR_WINTER_SPARE_APOCALYPSES":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/extinction-surplus.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[41.571949770039915,197.19866204402177],"conservative":null,"description":"Spare apocalypses: how many civilization-ending nuclear winters the global arsenal can trigger beyond the one that would already end civilization. The nuclear winter overkill factor minus one. Used wherever the manual jokes about the surplus (the apocalypses kept in case the first does not take).","displayName":"Spare Apocalypses (Overkill Factor Minus One)","formatted":"121.41 apocalypses","formula":"NUCLEAR_WINTER_OVERKILL_FACTOR - 1","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nOverkill_{spare} = Overkill_{winter} - 1 = 122 - 1 = 121\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Overkill_{winter} = \\frac{W_{global}}{W_{winter}} = \\frac{12{,}200}{100} = 122\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"apocalypses","value":121.41},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_ANNUAL_SOCIETAL_BENEFIT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[99578595759.1242,128699373087.57088],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual peace dividend from 1% reduction in total war costs (theoretical maximum at ε=1.0)","displayName":"Annual Peace Dividend from 1% Reduction in Total War Costs","formatted":"113.57B USD/year","formula":"TOTAL_WAR_COST × 1% × ε (baseline ε=1.0)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nBenefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":113571000000},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_CONFLICT_REDUCTION":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[72378595759.1242,101499373087.57088],"conservative":null,"description":"Conflict reduction benefits from 1% less military spending (lower confidence - assumes proportional relationship)","displayName":"Conflict Reduction Benefits from 1% Less Military Spending","formatted":"86.37B USD/year","formula":"PEACE_DIVIDEND_ANNUAL_SOCIETAL_BENEFIT - TREATY_ANNUAL_FUNDING","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{conflict} = Benefit_{peace,soc} - Funding_{treaty} = \\$114B - \\$27.2B = \\$86.4B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"calculated","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":86371000000},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_DIRECT_COSTS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[65203922397.58999,89491055190.89084],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual savings from 1% reduction in direct war costs","displayName":"Annual Savings from 1% Reduction in Direct War Costs","formatted":"76.57B USD/year","formula":"DIRECT_COSTS × 1%","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{direct} = Cost_{war,direct} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$7.66T \\times 1\\% = \\$76.6B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":76570000000},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_ENVIRONMENTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[734116596.2767913,1317321321.2040021],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual savings from 1% reduction in environmental damage","displayName":"Annual Savings from 1% Reduction in Environmental Damage","formatted":"1.00B USD/year","formula":"ENVIRONMENTAL_DAMAGE × 1%","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{env} \\\\\n= Damage_{env} \\times Reduce_{treaty} \\\\\n= \\$100B \\times 1\\% \\\\\n= \\$1B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":1000000000},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_HUMAN_CASUALTIES":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[13370914958.040884,37113644701.05189],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual savings from 1% reduction in human casualties","displayName":"Annual Savings from 1% Reduction in Human Casualties","formatted":"24.46B USD/year","formula":"HUMAN_LIFE_LOSSES × 1%","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{casualties} = Loss_{life,conflict} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.45T \\times 1\\% = \\$24.5B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":24460000000},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_INDIRECT_COSTS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[29813012296.390533,45621651128.474976],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual savings from 1% reduction in indirect war costs","displayName":"Annual Savings from 1% Reduction in Indirect War Costs","formatted":"37.00B USD/year","formula":"INDIRECT_COSTS × 1%","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{indirect} = Cost_{war,indirect} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$3.7T \\times 1\\% = \\$37B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":37001000000},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_INFRASTRUCTURE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[16518817035.69767,21041323021.83266],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual savings from 1% reduction in infrastructure destruction","displayName":"Annual Savings from 1% Reduction in Infrastructure Destruction","formatted":"18.75B USD/year","formula":"INFRASTRUCTURE_DESTRUCTION × 1%","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{infra} = Damage_{infra,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$1.88T \\times 1\\% = \\$18.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":18750000000},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_LIFETIME_PER_PERSON":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/1-percent-treaty.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[253999.2201612026,328716.2719265346],"conservative":null,"description":"Per-person share of the 80-year cumulative peace dividend, averaged across the global population. Not literally a check in the reader's pocket: most of it arrives as infrastructure not destroyed, wages not taxed to rebuild things that should not have been destroyed, and conflicts that never happen. Per-capita division hides that the poorest bear far more than the average today.","displayName":"Per-Person 80-Year Peace Dividend","formatted":"$290.05K","formula":"PEACE_DIVIDEND_LIFETIME_TOTAL / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{pp,LT} = \\frac{Savings_{LT}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$2320T}{8B} = \\$290K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Savings_{LT} = Cost_{war,cum,baseline} - Cost_{war,cum,treaty} = \\$3220T - \\$899T = \\$2320T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,cum,baseline} = C \\times ((1 + g)^{80} - 1) / g\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{mil,20yr} = \\left(\\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Spending_{mil,2005}}\\right)^{\\frac{1}{19}} - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,cum,treaty} = C \\times (1 - Reduce_{treaty}) \\times 80\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":290052.27027796686},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_LIFETIME_PER_PERSON_COMPOUNDED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[47009789.02407367,60838307.22881403],"conservative":null,"description":"Per-person future value at year 80 of the treaty peace dividend stream, compounded at the illustrative long-term real return rate (13%, Nasdaq-100 historical). Each year's savings are invested at the end of that year and compound until year 80. This is an opportunity-cost framing, not a promise of cash in the reader's pocket: the 'return' is the real productive use of capital that weapons spending displaced, not a literal brokerage account.","displayName":"Per-Person Peace Dividend Compounded at 13% over 80 Years","formatted":"$53.68M","formula":"[Σ_{t=0..79} (C(1+g)^t - C(1-p)) × (1+r)^(79-t)] / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nFV_{pp,treaty} = [Σ_{t=0..79} (C(1+g)^t - C(1-p)) \\times (1+r)^{79-t}] / Pop_{global}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{mil,20yr} = \\left(\\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Spending_{mil,2005}}\\right)^{\\frac{1}{19}} - 1\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":53682432.6589155},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_LIFETIME_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2034533306638201.8,2629512488040151.5],"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative peace dividend over 80 years (one human lifespan): the baseline 80-year war cost (SIPRI trajectory) minus the treaty 80-year war cost (flat at 99% of today). Assumes elasticity of 1.0 between military spending and war costs, which is almost certainly conservative because the political act of passing the treaty itself would reflect and reinforce a 'war is stupid' consensus that reduces externalities super-proportionally.","displayName":"Cumulative Peace Dividend Over 80 Years","formatted":"$2320.42T","formula":"GLOBAL_WAR_COST_LIFETIME_CUMULATIVE_BASELINE - GLOBAL_WAR_COST_LIFETIME_CUMULATIVE_TREATY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{LT} = Cost_{war,cum,baseline} - Cost_{war,cum,treaty} = \\$3220T - \\$899T = \\$2320T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,cum,baseline} = C \\times ((1 + g)^{80} - 1) / g\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{mil,20yr} = \\left(\\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Spending_{mil,2005}}\\right)^{\\frac{1}{19}} - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,cum,treaty} = C \\times (1 - Reduce_{treaty}) \\times 80\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":2320418162223735},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_LOST_ECONOMIC_GROWTH":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[20140454797.55504,35661854073.05874],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual savings from 1% reduction in lost economic growth","displayName":"Annual Savings from 1% Reduction in Lost Economic Growth","formatted":"27.18B USD/year","formula":"LOST_ECONOMIC_GROWTH × 1%","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{growth} \\\\\n= Loss_{growth,mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} \\\\\n= \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% \\\\\n= \\$27.2B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":27180000000},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_LOST_HUMAN_CAPITAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2209156561.053833,3958014276.211635],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual savings from 1% reduction in lost human capital","displayName":"Annual Savings from 1% Reduction in Lost Human Capital","formatted":"3.00B USD/year","formula":"LOST_HUMAN_CAPITAL × 1%","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{capital} \\\\\n= Loss_{capital,conflict} \\times Reduce_{treaty} \\\\\n= \\$300B \\times 1\\% \\\\\n= \\$3B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":3000000000},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_PTSD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1698970435.9272082,3049668241.877552],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual savings from 1% reduction in PTSD and mental health costs","displayName":"Annual Savings from 1% Reduction in PTSD and Mental Health Costs","formatted":"2.32B USD/year","formula":"PTSD_COSTS × 1%","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{PTSD} \\\\\n= Cost_{psych} \\times Reduce_{treaty} \\\\\n= \\$232B \\times 1\\% \\\\\n= \\$2.32B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":2320000000},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_REFUGEE_SUPPORT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1103689474.0913777,1970717679.0362873],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual savings from 1% reduction in refugee support costs","displayName":"Annual Savings from 1% Reduction in Refugee Support Costs","formatted":"1.50B USD/year","formula":"REFUGEE_SUPPORT × 1%","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{refugee} \\\\\n= Cost_{refugee} \\times Reduce_{treaty} \\\\\n= \\$150B \\times 1\\% \\\\\n= \\$1.5B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":1500000000},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_SHARE_OF_80YR_BASELINE_WAR_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Fraction of the baseline 80-year war cost avoided by the treaty. Because the baseline compounds exponentially while the treaty holds spending flat, cutting 1% today and halting the growth trajectory avoids about 72% of the cumulative 80-year war cost. Most of the savings come from the halted growth, not the headline 1% cut.","displayName":"Share of 80-Year War Cost Avoided by Treaty","formatted":"72.1%","formula":"PEACE_DIVIDEND_LIFETIME_TOTAL / GLOBAL_WAR_COST_LIFETIME_CUMULATIVE_BASELINE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\phi_{avoided} = \\frac{Savings_{LT}}{Cost_{war,cum,baseline}} = \\frac{\\$2320T}{\\$3220T} = 72.1\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Savings_{LT} = Cost_{war,cum,baseline} - Cost_{war,cum,treaty} = \\$3220T - \\$899T = \\$2320T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,cum,baseline} = C \\times ((1 + g)^{80} - 1) / g\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{mil,20yr} = \\left(\\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Spending_{mil,2005}}\\right)^{\\frac{1}{19}} - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,cum,treaty} = C \\times (1 - Reduce_{treaty}) \\times 80\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.7206490309356401},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_TRADE_DISRUPTION":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[5260753241.048029,7157988862.962133],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual savings from 1% reduction in trade disruption","displayName":"Annual Savings from 1% Reduction in Trade Disruption","formatted":"6.16B USD/year","formula":"TRADE_DISRUPTION × 1%","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{trade} = Disruption_{trade} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$616B \\times 1\\% = \\$6.16B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":6160000000},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_VETERAN_HEALTHCARE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1471820240.0061655,2660349490.265329],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual savings from 1% reduction in veteran healthcare costs","displayName":"Annual Savings from 1% Reduction in Veteran Healthcare Costs","formatted":"2.00B USD/year","formula":"VETERAN_HEALTHCARE × 1%","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{vet} \\\\\n= Cost_{vet} \\times Reduce_{treaty} \\\\\n= \\$200B \\times 1\\% \\\\\n= \\$2B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":2001000000},"PEACE_TRAJECTORY_TOTAL_DIFFERENTIAL_20YR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[6054249616893.466,24936412680343.61],"conservative":null,"description":"Total 20-year value of the peace trajectory: research funding redirected to medicine plus war externality costs avoided. The full differential between the IAB trajectory and the current trajectory. Does not include existential risk reduction.","displayName":"Peace Trajectory Total Differential (20yr)","formatted":"$16.33T","formula":"TREATY_CUMULATIVE_20YR_WITH_RATCHET + WAR_COSTS_SAVED_PEACE_TRAJECTORY_20YR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nV_{peace,20yr} = Fund_{20yr,ratchet} + Savings_{war,20yr} = \\$3.16T + \\$13.2T = \\$16.3T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Fund_{20yr,ratchet} = \\text{GLOBAL\\_MILITARY} \\times (0.01 \\times 3 + \\min\\left(0.02, s_{ratchet}\\right) \\times 4 + \\min\\left(0.05, s_{ratchet}\\right) \\times 5 + s_{ratchet} \\times 8)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Savings_{war,20yr} = Cost_{war,total} \\times (0.01 \\times 3 + \\min\\left(0.02, s_{ratchet}\\right) \\times 4 + \\min\\left(0.05, s_{ratchet}\\right) \\times 5 + s_{ratchet} \\times 8)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":16329436000000.002},"PENTAGON_UNACCOUNTED_CLINICAL_TRIAL_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/1-percent-treaty.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[410,803.149796367201],"conservative":null,"description":"Number of years of clinical trial funding at current government spending levels that the Pentagon's unaccounted funds could have provided","displayName":"Pentagon Unaccounted Funds in Clinical Trial Years","formatted":"546.6666666666666 years","formula":"PENTAGON_UNACCOUNTED_FUNDS / GLOBAL_GOVERNMENT_CLINICAL_TRIALS_SPENDING_ANNUAL","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nYears_{pentagon,trials} \\\\\n= \\frac{Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted}}{Spending_{trials,gov}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$2.46T}{\\$4.5B} \\\\\n= 547\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":546.6666666666666},"PENTAGON_UNACCOUNTED_FALSE_CLAIMS_ANALOG_EXPOSURE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"False Claims Act-style treble-damages exposure on Pentagon unaccounted funds, used as a corporate-defendant audit analogy rather than a literal claim under existing sovereign law.","displayName":"Pentagon Unaccounted Funds False Claims Analog Exposure","formatted":"$7.38T","formula":"PENTAGON_UNACCOUNTED_FUNDS × CORPORATE_ANALOG_FALSE_CLAIMS_TREBLE_MULTIPLIER","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nExposure_{pentagon,FCA} \\\\\n= Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} \\\\\n= \\$2.46T \\times 3 \\\\\n= \\$7.38T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":7380000000000},"PERSONAL_LIFETIME_WEALTH":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[378265.14813703,9349408.132804237],"conservative":null,"description":"Personal lifetime wealth from life extension valued at standard QALY rate. Simple formula: years of life gained × economic value per healthy year. Uncertainty in LIFE_EXTENSION_YEARS (5-100 year range, median 20) propagates through Monte Carlo.","displayName":"Personal Lifetime Wealth (QALY-Based)","formatted":"$3.00M","formula":"LIFE_EXTENSION_YEARS × STANDARD_ECONOMIC_QALY_VALUE_USD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nWealth_{lifetime} \\\\\n= T_{extend} \\times Value_{QALY} \\\\\n= 20 \\times \\$150K \\\\\n= \\$3M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":3000000},"PER_CAPITA_CHRONIC_DISEASE_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-disease.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[10225.672392829836,14456.389227876789],"conservative":null,"description":"US per capita chronic disease cost","displayName":"US Per Capita Chronic Disease Cost","formatted":"12,238.806 USD/person/year","formula":"US_CHRONIC_DISEASE_SPENDING ÷ US_POPULATION","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{chronic,pc} \\\\\n= \\frac{Spending_{chronic,US}}{Pop_{US}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$4.1T}{335M} \\\\\n= \\$12.2K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person/year","value":12238.805970149253},"PER_CAPITA_MENTAL_HEALTH_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-disease.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[821.4545362787826,1290.8790088855662],"conservative":null,"description":"US per capita mental health cost","displayName":"US Per Capita Mental Health Cost","formatted":"1,044.776 USD/person/year","formula":"US_MENTAL_HEALTH_COST ÷ US_POPULATION","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{mental,pc} \\\\\n= \\frac{Cost_{mental,US}}{Pop_{US}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$350B}{335M} \\\\\n= \\$1.04K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person/year","value":1044.7761194029852},"PHARMA_LIVES_SAVED_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[7724804.622624174,18601068.29172305],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual lives saved by pharmaceutical interventions globally. Derived from Lichtenberg (2019) finding of 148.7M life-years saved, divided by assumed 12-year average life extension per beneficiary. Note: Life-years is the primary metric; lives is an approximation for intuitive communication.","displayName":"Annual Lives Saved by Pharmaceuticals","formatted":"12.39M deaths","formula":"PHARMA_LIFE_YEARS_SAVED_ANNUAL ÷ AVG_LIFE_EXTENSION_PER_BENEFICIARY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nLives_{saved,annual} \\\\\n= \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} \\\\\n= \\frac{149M}{12} \\\\\n= 12.4M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"lichtenberg-life-years-saved-2019","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://www.nber.org/papers/w25483","stdError":null,"unit":"deaths","value":12391666.666666666},"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_EFFICIENCY_SCORE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[0.4026586240692923,0.6457660335743484],"conservative":null,"description":"Global Governance Efficiency Score from Political Dysfunction Tax paper. E = Adjusted W_real / W_max, where W_real = GDP - waste, W_max = W_real + opportunity cost. Paper calculates 30-52% efficiency (using $110.9T adjusted / $211.9T maximum). This means civilization operates at roughly half its technological potential.","displayName":"Global Governance Efficiency Score","formatted":"51.8%","formula":"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_REALIZED_WELFARE_ADJUSTED / POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_THEORETICAL_MAX_WELFARE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nE_{gov} = \\frac{W_{real}}{W_{max}} = \\frac{\\$109T}{\\$210T} = 51.8\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{real} = GDP_{global} - W_{waste} = \\$115T - \\$6.28T = \\$109T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{waste} = W_{total,US} + W_{ff,global} = \\$4.98T + \\$1.3T = \\$6.28T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{total,US} = W_{raw,US} \\times \\delta_{overlap} = \\$4.98T \\times 1 = \\$4.98T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{raw,US} = W_{health} + W_{housing} + W_{military} + W_{regulatory} + W_{tax} + W_{corporate} + W_{tariffs} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$1.2T + \\$1.4T + \\$702B + \\$580B + \\$546B + \\$181B + \\$160B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$4.98T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{military} = Spending_{US,2024} - D_{optimal} = \\$886B - \\$184B = \\$702B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{optimal} = D_{nuclear} + D_{air} + D_{cg} + D_{guard} + D_{cyber} + D_{hedge} = \\$30B + \\$35B + \\$14B + \\$30B + \\$15B + \\$60B = \\$184B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{max} = W_{real} + O_{total} = \\$109T + \\$101T = \\$210T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } O_{total} = O_{health} + O_{science} + O_{lead} + O_{migration} = \\$34T + \\$4T + \\$6T + \\$57T = \\$101T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"political-dysfunction-tax-paper-2025","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.518396307387133},"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_OPPORTUNITY_COST_PCT_GDP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/optimocracy.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[0.5184658913090529,1.402645957612717],"conservative":null,"description":"Global opportunity cost as percentage of global GDP. $101T / $115T = ~88% of current GDP in unrealized potential. This represents the 'buried multipliers' of the global economy.","displayName":"Global Opportunity Cost as % of GDP","formatted":"87.8%","formula":"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_OPPORTUNITY_COST_TOTAL / GLOBAL_GDP_2025","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nO_{\\%GDP} = \\frac{O_{total}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$101T}{\\$115T} = 87.8\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } O_{total} = O_{health} + O_{science} + O_{lead} + O_{migration} = \\$34T + \\$4T + \\$6T + \\$57T = \\$101T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"political-dysfunction-tax-paper-2025","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.8782608695652174},"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_OPPORTUNITY_COST_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/optimocracy-paper.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[59623577500541.08,161304285125462.47],"conservative":null,"description":"Total global opportunity cost from governance failures: health innovation delays ($34T), underfunded science ($4T), lead poisoning ($6T), migration restrictions ($57T). Sum: $101T annually in unrealized potential.","displayName":"Global Opportunity Cost Total","formatted":"$101.00T","formula":"HEALTH + SCIENCE + LEAD + MIGRATION","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nO_{total} \\\\\n= O_{health} + O_{science} + O_{lead} + O_{migration} \\\\\n= \\$34T + \\$4T + \\$6T + \\$57T \\\\\n= \\$101T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"political-dysfunction-tax-paper-2025","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":101000000000000},"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_REALIZED_WELFARE_ADJUSTED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[108072534372270.11,109331296808188.38],"conservative":null,"description":"Adjusted realized welfare after subtracting measured governance waste from global GDP.","displayName":"Adjusted Realized Welfare","formatted":"$108.72T","formula":"GLOBAL_GDP_2025 - POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_WASTE_TOTAL","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nW_{real} = GDP_{global} - W_{waste} = \\$115T - \\$6.28T = \\$109T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{waste} = W_{total,US} + W_{ff,global} = \\$4.98T + \\$1.3T = \\$6.28T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{total,US} = W_{raw,US} \\times \\delta_{overlap} = \\$4.98T \\times 1 = \\$4.98T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{raw,US} = W_{health} + W_{housing} + W_{military} + W_{regulatory} + W_{tax} + W_{corporate} + W_{tariffs} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$1.2T + \\$1.4T + \\$702B + \\$580B + \\$546B + \\$181B + \\$160B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$4.98T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{military} = Spending_{US,2024} - D_{optimal} = \\$886B - \\$184B = \\$702B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{optimal} = D_{nuclear} + D_{air} + D_{cg} + D_{guard} + D_{cyber} + D_{hedge} = \\$30B + \\$35B + \\$14B + \\$30B + \\$15B + \\$60B = \\$184B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":108716000000000},"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_THEORETICAL_MAX_WELFARE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[168454189795958.1,270078068606313.3],"conservative":null,"description":"Conservative theoretical maximum welfare under opportunity-cost recapture assumptions.","displayName":"Theoretical Maximum Welfare (Conservative)","formatted":"$209.72T","formula":"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_REALIZED_WELFARE_ADJUSTED + POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_OPPORTUNITY_COST_TOTAL","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nW_{max} = W_{real} + O_{total} = \\$109T + \\$101T = \\$210T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{real} = GDP_{global} - W_{waste} = \\$115T - \\$6.28T = \\$109T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{waste} = W_{total,US} + W_{ff,global} = \\$4.98T + \\$1.3T = \\$6.28T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{total,US} = W_{raw,US} \\times \\delta_{overlap} = \\$4.98T \\times 1 = \\$4.98T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{raw,US} = W_{health} + W_{housing} + W_{military} + W_{regulatory} + W_{tax} + W_{corporate} + W_{tariffs} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$1.2T + \\$1.4T + \\$702B + \\$580B + \\$546B + \\$181B + \\$160B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$4.98T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{military} = Spending_{US,2024} - D_{optimal} = \\$886B - \\$184B = \\$702B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{optimal} = D_{nuclear} + D_{air} + D_{cg} + D_{guard} + D_{cyber} + D_{hedge} = \\$30B + \\$35B + \\$14B + \\$30B + \\$15B + \\$60B = \\$184B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } O_{total} = O_{health} + O_{science} + O_{lead} + O_{migration} = \\$34T + \\$4T + \\$6T + \\$57T = \\$101T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":209716000000000},"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_WASTE_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[5668703191811.627,6927465627729.877],"conservative":null,"description":"Global waste deduction used in Political Dysfunction Tax efficiency accounting. Combines US governance waste estimate with global explicit fossil-fuel subsidies.","displayName":"Global Waste Total (Efficiency Accounting)","formatted":"$6.28T","formula":"US_GOV_WASTE_TOTAL + POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_FOSSIL_FUEL_SUBSIDIES","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nW_{waste} = W_{total,US} + W_{ff,global} = \\$4.98T + \\$1.3T = \\$6.28T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{total,US} = W_{raw,US} \\times \\delta_{overlap} = \\$4.98T \\times 1 = \\$4.98T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{raw,US} = W_{health} + W_{housing} + W_{military} + W_{regulatory} + W_{tax} + W_{corporate} + W_{tariffs} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$1.2T + \\$1.4T + \\$702B + \\$580B + \\$546B + \\$181B + \\$160B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$4.98T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{military} = Spending_{US,2024} - D_{optimal} = \\$886B - \\$184B = \\$702B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{optimal} = D_{nuclear} + D_{air} + D_{cg} + D_{guard} + D_{cyber} + D_{hedge} = \\$30B + \\$35B + \\$14B + \\$30B + \\$15B + \\$60B = \\$184B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":6284000000000},"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_TAX_PER_HOUSEHOLD_OF_FOUR_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[29798.22425910399,80307.68711111347],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual household burden for a 4-person household implied by global Political Dysfunction Tax.","displayName":"Political Dysfunction Tax per Household of Four (Annual)","formatted":"50,500 USD/year","formula":"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_TAX_PER_PERSON_ANNUAL × 4","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{pd,hh4} = T_{pd,pc} \\times 4 = \\$12.6K \\times 4 = \\$50.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{pd,pc} = \\frac{O_{total}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$101T}{8B} = \\$12.6K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } O_{total} = O_{health} + O_{science} + O_{lead} + O_{migration} = \\$34T + \\$4T + \\$6T + \\$57T = \\$101T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":50500},"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_TAX_PER_PERSON_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[7449.556064775998,20076.921777778367],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual per-person burden implied by global Political Dysfunction Tax opportunity costs.","displayName":"Political Dysfunction Tax per Person (Annual)","formatted":"12,625 USD/year","formula":"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_OPPORTUNITY_COST_TOTAL ÷ GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{pd,pc} = \\frac{O_{total}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$101T}{8B} = \\$12.6K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } O_{total} = O_{health} + O_{science} + O_{lead} + O_{migration} = \\$34T + \\$4T + \\$6T + \\$57T = \\$101T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":12625},"POST_WW2_MILITARY_CUT_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Percentage US military spending cut after WW2 (1945-1947, inflation-adjusted: $1,420B to $176B in constant 2024 dollars)","displayName":"Percentage Military Spending Cut After WW2","formatted":"87.6%","formula":"1 - (US_MILITARY_SPENDING_1947 / US_MILITARY_SPENDING_1945_PEAK)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCut_{WW2} \\\\\n= 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} \\\\\n= 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} \\\\\n= 87.6\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.876056338028169},"PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_COST_PER_QALY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[1.9107891883438548,9.80089352888417],"conservative":null,"description":"Cost per QALY for pragmatic platform trials, calculated from RECOVERY trial data. Uses global impact methodology: trial cost divided by total QALYs from downstream adoption. This measures research efficiency (discovery value), not clinical intervention ICER.","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Cost per QALY (RECOVERY)","formatted":"4 USD/QALY","formula":"TRIAL_COST ÷ TOTAL_QALYS_GENERATED","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{pragmatic,QALY} = \\frac{Cost_{RECOVERY}}{QALY_{RECOVERY}} = \\frac{\\$20M}{5M} = \\$4\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } QALY_{RECOVERY} = Lives_{RECOVERY} \\times QALY_{COVID} = 1M \\times 5 = 5M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"recovery-trial-82x-cost-reduction","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://manhattan.institute/article/slow-costly-clinical-trials-drag-down-biomedical-breakthroughs","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/QALY","value":4},"PRICE_OF_APOCALYPSE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/extinction-surplus.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[464180737.07764626,2161047368.1100683],"conservative":null,"description":"The Price of Apocalypse: the annual cost of maintaining enough nuclear warheads to trigger a civilization-ending nuclear winter (~100 warheads, ~5 Tg soot, ~2 billion famine deaths, global food system collapse). Calculated as global nuclear spending divided by the nuclear winter overkill factor.","displayName":"Price of Apocalypse (Minimum Viable Apocalypse)","formatted":"$751.57M","formula":"GLOBAL_NUCLEAR_WEAPONS_SPENDING / NUCLEAR_WINTER_OVERKILL_FACTOR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nP_{apocalypse} = \\frac{S_{nuke}}{Overkill_{winter}} = \\frac{\\$92B}{122} = \\$752M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Overkill_{winter} = \\frac{W_{global}}{W_{winter}} = \\frac{12{,}200}{100} = 122\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":751572583.9392207},"PRIZE_POOL_ANNUAL_RETURN":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.11842667752828524,0.19839949738372434],"conservative":null,"description":"Canonical annual return used for prize pool growth. Venture gross return + scale compression + crowd allocation alpha + home bias elimination. This is the structural pool return before contingent macro feedback loops.","displayName":"PRIZE Pool Annual Return","formatted":"15.8%","formula":"VENTURE_GROSS_RETURN + SCALE_COMPRESSION_FACTOR + WISHOCRATIC_CROWD_ALPHA + HOME_BIAS_ALPHA","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nr_{pool} \\\\\n= r_{VC,gross} + \\Delta r_{scale} + \\alpha_{crowd} \\\\\n+ \\alpha_{home} \\\\\n= 17\\% + -2.5\\% + 0.5\\% + 0.8\\% \\\\\n= 15.8\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.15800000000000003},"PRIZE_POOL_HORIZON_MULTIPLE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[5.359357951428758,15.101645567208687],"conservative":null,"description":"Compound multiple for prize pool growth over the resolution horizon (tied to the destructive economy 50% threshold year).","displayName":"PRIZE Pool Horizon Multiple","formatted":"9.028765862436396 x","formula":"(1 + PRIZE_POOL_ANNUAL_RETURN) ^ (DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_50PCT_YEAR - DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_BASE_YEAR)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nM_{pool} = (1 + r_{pool})^{Y_{50\\%} - Y_0}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{pool} = r_{VC,gross} + \\Delta r_{scale} + \\alpha_{crowd} + \\alpha_{home} = 17\\% + -2.5\\% + 0.5\\% + 0.8\\% = 15.8\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{50\\%} = Y_0 + \\frac{\\ln\\left(0.50 / \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_PCT\\_GDP}\\right)}{\\ln\\left(1 + \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_GROWTH} - \\text{GDP\\_GROWTH}\\right)}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{destruct:GDP} = \\frac{Cost_{destruct}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$13.2T}{\\$115T} = 11.5\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{destruct} = Spending_{mil} + Cost_{cyber} = \\$2.72T + \\$10.5T = \\$13.2T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":9.028765862436396},"PRIZE_POOL_RETIREMENT_EQUIVALENT_PRINCIPAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1318350497195.7002,3960929257377.449],"conservative":null,"description":"Secondary PRIZE seed benchmark: initial principal required so that the pool can make two referred votes retirement-equivalent on success at the majority-of-humanity coordination target. This is a stronger-incentive visible-pool benchmark, not the minimum capital required to make majority-of-humanity participation credible.","displayName":"PRIZE Pool Retirement-Equivalent Principal","formatted":"$2.28T","formula":"GLOBAL_REGISTERED_VOTERS × RETIREMENT_EQUIVALENT_CLAIM_VALUE_TARGET / PRIZE_POOL_HORIZON_MULTIPLE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nP_{retire-eq} = N_{voters,global} \\times \\frac{V_{claim,target}}{M_{pool}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{claim,target} = V_{2claims,target} \\times 0.5 = \\$9.98K \\times 0.5 = \\$4.99K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{2claims,target} = S_{annual,pc} \\times M_{retire} = \\$3.88K \\times 2.57 = \\$9.98K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } S_{annual,pc} = \\frac{S_{annual}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$31.1T}{8B} = \\$3.88K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } S_{annual} = s_{global} \\times GDP_{global} = 27\\% \\times \\$115T = \\$31.1T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } M_{retire} = (1 + r_{retire})^{Y_{50\\%} - Y_0}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{50\\%} = Y_0 + \\frac{\\ln\\left(0.50 / \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_PCT\\_GDP}\\right)}{\\ln\\left(1 + \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_GROWTH} - \\text{GDP\\_GROWTH}\\right)}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{destruct:GDP} = \\frac{Cost_{destruct}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$13.2T}{\\$115T} = 11.5\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{destruct} = Spending_{mil} + Cost_{cyber} = \\$2.72T + \\$10.5T = \\$13.2T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } M_{pool} = (1 + r_{pool})^{Y_{50\\%} - Y_0}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{pool} = r_{VC,gross} + \\Delta r_{scale} + \\alpha_{crowd} + \\alpha_{home} = 17\\% + -2.5\\% + 0.5\\% + 0.8\\% = 15.8\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":2281981017443.791},"PRIZE_POOL_SIZE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-protocol-v1.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2190246515828.3643,109414079805559.45],"conservative":null,"description":"Terminal prize pool size: global investable assets × participation rate × compound multiple over the resolution horizon.","displayName":"Prize Pool Size","formatted":"$27.54T","formula":"GLOBAL_INVESTABLE_ASSETS × PRIZE_POOL_PARTICIPATION_RATE × PRIZE_POOL_HORIZON_MULTIPLE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nPool = Assets_{invest} \\times R_{pool} \\times M_{pool} = \\$305T \\times 1\\% \\times 9.03 = \\$27.5T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } M_{pool} = (1 + r_{pool})^{Y_{50\\%} - Y_0}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{pool} = r_{VC,gross} + \\Delta r_{scale} + \\alpha_{crowd} + \\alpha_{home} = 17\\% + -2.5\\% + 0.5\\% + 0.8\\% = 15.8\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{50\\%} = Y_0 + \\frac{\\ln\\left(0.50 / \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_PCT\\_GDP}\\right)}{\\ln\\left(1 + \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_GROWTH} - \\text{GDP\\_GROWTH}\\right)}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{destruct:GDP} = \\frac{Cost_{destruct}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$13.2T}{\\$115T} = 11.5\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{destruct} = Spending_{mil} + Cost_{cyber} = \\$2.72T + \\$10.5T = \\$13.2T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":27537735880431.008},"PRIZE_TARGET_HALE_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/earth-optimization-prize-protocol.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[70.24020270953231,90.73499843052598],"conservative":null,"description":"The Earth Optimization Prize settlement target for global HALE at year 15. Set to the Treaty-trajectory projection (the achievable floor). The terminal general-welfare metric oracle compares measured global HALE against this value.","displayName":"Prize Settlement Target: Global HALE (Year 15)","formatted":"79.4 years","formula":"TREATY_PROJECTED_HALE_YEAR_15","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nHALE^{*}_{15} = HALE_{treaty,15} = 79.4 = 79.4\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } HALE_{treaty,15} = HALE_{0} + \\Delta HALE_{treaty,15} = 63.3 + 16.1 = 79.4\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{treaty,15} = f_{cure,15,treaty} \\times \\Delta_{HALE} + \\Delta HALE_{treaty,longevity,15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{treaty,longevity,15} = T_{extend} \\times \\rho_{HALE,15} \\times f_{cure,15,treaty} = 20 \\times 30\\% \\times 100\\% = 6\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":79.4},"PRIZE_TARGET_MEDIAN_INCOME_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/earth-optimization-prize-protocol.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3291.811145265844,5410.7653011627235],"conservative":null,"description":"MODEL PROJECTION that informs the Prize settlement target for global median income at year 15 (Treaty-trajectory median). NOT the binding trigger: per the Target Lock clause in the protocol spec, a pool freezes its targets as literal constants in a signed Settlement Schedule before its first deposit, denominated as a multiple of the Referee's baseline MEASURED value so target and measurement share identical units. This parameter is the rationale for the locked number, never its definition.","displayName":"Prize Settlement Target: Median Income (Year 15)","formatted":"$4.38K","formula":"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_MEDIAN_AFTER_TAX_INCOME_YEAR_15","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\tilde{m}^{*}_{15} = \\tilde{m}_{treaty,15} = \\$4.38K = \\$4.38K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\tilde{m}_{treaty,15} = \\bar{y}_{treaty,15} \\times (1 - s_{mil} \\times (1 - s_{ratchet})) \\times \\rho_{med} \\times (1 - e_{med})^{15} \\times (1 + r_{relief} \\times f_{cure,15,treaty}) \\times (1 - \\tau_{med})\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{treaty,15} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,15}}{Pop_{2040}} = \\frac{\\$238T}{8.9B} = \\$26.7K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,15} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,15} + g_{peace,treaty,15} + g_{cyber,treaty,15} + g_{health,treaty,15})^{15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,15} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 4.4\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 0.807\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} = s_{ratchet} \\times 0.212 = 10\\% \\times 0.212 = 4.4\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,15} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,15}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,15} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,15} = \\frac{f_{cure,15,treaty} - d_{disease}}{-7.22} = \\frac{100\\% - 13\\%}{-7.22} = 0.818\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil} = \\frac{Spending_{mil}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$2.72T}{\\$115T} = 2.37\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\rho_{med} = \\frac{\\tilde{y}_{gallup}}{\\bar{y}_{0}} = \\frac{\\$2.92K}{\\$14.4K} = 0.203\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":4381.418260557408},"RECOVERY_TRIAL_COST_REDUCTION_FACTOR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[21.381874403948053,195.12679984167949],"conservative":null,"description":"Cost reduction factor demonstrated by RECOVERY trial (traditional Phase 3 cost / RECOVERY cost per patient)","displayName":"RECOVERY Trial Cost Reduction Factor","formatted":"82 multiplier","formula":"TRADITIONAL_PHASE3_COST / RECOVERY_COST","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{RECOVERY} \\\\\n= \\frac{Cost_{P3,pt}}{Cost_{RECOVERY,pt}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$41K}{\\$500} \\\\\n= 82\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"recovery-trial-82x-cost-reduction","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://manhattan.institute/article/slow-costly-clinical-trials-drag-down-biomedical-breakthroughs","stdError":null,"unit":"multiplier","value":82},"RECOVERY_TRIAL_TOTAL_QALYS_GENERATED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[2096831.7775222813,10051840.469377978],"conservative":null,"description":"Total QALYs generated by RECOVERY trial's discoveries (lives saved × QALYs per life). Uses global impact methodology: counts all downstream health gains from the discovery.","displayName":"RECOVERY Trial Total QALYs Generated","formatted":"5.00M QALYs","formula":"LIVES_SAVED × QALYS_PER_DEATH_AVERTED","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nQALY_{RECOVERY} \\\\\n= Lives_{RECOVERY} \\times QALY_{COVID} \\\\\n= 1M \\times 5 \\\\\n= 5M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"QALYs","value":5000000},"RETIREMENT_EQUIVALENT_2_CLAIMS_TARGET_PAYOUT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[8198.052848143107,12087.626781614854],"conservative":null,"description":"Target success-side payout for two referred votes: what one representative annual savings contribution would become in a conventional retirement account by PRIZE resolution.","displayName":"Retirement-Equivalent 2-Claims Target Payout","formatted":"$9.98K","formula":"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_SAVINGS_PER_CAPITA × CONVENTIONAL_RETIREMENT_HORIZON_MULTIPLE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nV_{2claims,target} = S_{annual,pc} \\times M_{retire} = \\$3.88K \\times 2.57 = \\$9.98K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } S_{annual,pc} = \\frac{S_{annual}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$31.1T}{8B} = \\$3.88K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } S_{annual} = s_{global} \\times GDP_{global} = 27\\% \\times \\$115T = \\$31.1T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } M_{retire} = (1 + r_{retire})^{Y_{50\\%} - Y_0}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{50\\%} = Y_0 + \\frac{\\ln\\left(0.50 / \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_PCT\\_GDP}\\right)}{\\ln\\left(1 + \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_GROWTH} - \\text{GDP\\_GROWTH}\\right)}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{destruct:GDP} = \\frac{Cost_{destruct}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$13.2T}{\\$115T} = 11.5\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{destruct} = Spending_{mil} + Cost_{cyber} = \\$2.72T + \\$10.5T = \\$13.2T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":9981.95790672404},"RETIREMENT_EQUIVALENT_CLAIM_VALUE_TARGET":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[4099.026424071553,6043.813390807427],"conservative":null,"description":"Target value of one referred-voter claim when two claims are meant to match the conventional-retirement future value of one representative annual savings contribution.","displayName":"Retirement-Equivalent Claim Value Target","formatted":"$4.99K","formula":"RETIREMENT_EQUIVALENT_2_CLAIMS_TARGET_PAYOUT / 2","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nV_{claim,target} = V_{2claims,target} \\times 0.5 = \\$9.98K \\times 0.5 = \\$4.99K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{2claims,target} = S_{annual,pc} \\times M_{retire} = \\$3.88K \\times 2.57 = \\$9.98K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } S_{annual,pc} = \\frac{S_{annual}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$31.1T}{8B} = \\$3.88K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } S_{annual} = s_{global} \\times GDP_{global} = 27\\% \\times \\$115T = \\$31.1T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } M_{retire} = (1 + r_{retire})^{Y_{50\\%} - Y_0}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{50\\%} = Y_0 + \\frac{\\ln\\left(0.50 / \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_PCT\\_GDP}\\right)}{\\ln\\left(1 + \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_GROWTH} - \\text{GDP\\_GROWTH}\\right)}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{destruct:GDP} = \\frac{Cost_{destruct}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$13.2T}{\\$115T} = 11.5\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{destruct} = Spending_{mil} + Cost_{cyber} = \\$2.72T + \\$10.5T = \\$13.2T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":4990.97895336202},"SE_BOT_ANNUAL_BELIEF_CHANGES":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/special-education.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[32253.548952863825,14327087.330940574],"conservative":null,"description":"Modeled annual belief updates from the outbound bot before deduplicating repeat exposures across posts. This is not a count of unique people.","displayName":"SE Bot Annual Modeled Belief Changes","formatted":"4.38M people/year","formula":"SE_BOT_RELEVANT_POSTS_PER_DAY_GLOBAL * DAYS_PER_YEAR * SE_BOT_PEOPLE_PERSUADED_PER_POST","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{belief,annual} = V_{posts} \\times N_{persuaded} \\times 365 = 100{,}000 \\times 0.12 \\times 365 = 4.38M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{persuaded} = P_{target} + M_{obs} \\times P_{obs} = 2\\% + 20 \\times 0.5\\% = 0.12\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"people/year","value":4380000},"SE_BOT_ANNUAL_EV_USD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/special-education.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[104607.85206231728,29193133.994841855],"conservative":null,"description":"Conservative expected annual social value from outbound Special Education: attribution_fraction x annual peace dividend. This is a treaty-only fallback, not the universal-owner portfolio case.","displayName":"Special Education Peace-Dividend Expected Value","formatted":"11.36M USD/year","formula":"SE_BOT_OUTCOME_ATTRIBUTION_FRACTION * PEACE_DIVIDEND_ANNUAL_SOCIETAL_BENEFIT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nEV_{bot} = \\alpha_{bot} \\times Benefit_{peace,soc} = 0.01\\% \\times \\$114B = \\$11.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":11357100},"SE_BOT_ANNUAL_OPERATIONAL_COST_USD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/special-education.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[8607.689949944706,1153851.2949935254],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual cost to correct all relevant posts globally: cost_per_post * posts_per_day * days_per_year.","displayName":"SE Bot Annual Operational Cost","formatted":"292,000 USD/year","formula":"SE_BOT_COST_PER_POST_USD * SE_BOT_RELEVANT_POSTS_PER_DAY_GLOBAL * DAYS_PER_YEAR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nC_{annual} = C_{post} \\times V_{posts} \\times 365 = \\$0.008 \\times 100{,}000 \\times 365 = \\$292K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{post} = C_{llm} + C_{platform} = \\$0.006 + \\$0.002 = \\$0.008\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":292000},"SE_BOT_AUM_1T_BREAKEVEN_ATTRIBUTION_FRACTION":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/special-education.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[0.00004168467347087524,0.007229954273517135],"conservative":null,"description":"Treaty-attribution fraction required for a $1T AUM investor's portfolio gain to cover the annual bot operating cost, excluding social value and reputational value.","displayName":"$1T AUM Breakeven Attribution Fraction","formatted":"0.1%","formula":"SE_BOT_ANNUAL_OPERATIONAL_COST_USD * SE_BOT_GLOBAL_EQUITY_MARKET_CAP_USD / (PEACE_DIVIDEND_ANNUAL_SOCIETAL_BENEFIT * SE_BOT_EQUITY_UPLIFT_CAPTURE_FRACTION * SE_BOT_REFERENCE_AUM_USD)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\alpha_{breakeven,1T} = C_{annual} \\times M_{equity} / (Benefit_{peace,soc} \\times f_{equity} \\times AUM_{ref})\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{annual} = C_{post} \\times V_{posts} \\times 365 = \\$0.008 \\times 100{,}000 \\times 365 = \\$292K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{post} = C_{llm} + C_{platform} = \\$0.006 + \\$0.002 = \\$0.008\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.0014783703586302842},"SE_BOT_AUM_1T_EXPECTED_PORTFOLIO_GAIN_USD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/special-education.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[105.20520644581401,47987.167973524454],"conservative":null,"description":"Expected portfolio gain for a $1T AUM fund from one year of SE bot operation. Calculation: (attribution_fraction * peace_dividend * equity_capture_share) / global_equity_market_cap * reference_AUM. This is a hedge value, not the social expected value.","displayName":"$1T AUM Expected Portfolio Gain from SE Bot","formatted":"$19.75K","formula":"SE_BOT_OUTCOME_ATTRIBUTION_FRACTION * PEACE_DIVIDEND_ANNUAL_SOCIETAL_BENEFIT * SE_BOT_EQUITY_UPLIFT_CAPTURE_FRACTION / SE_BOT_GLOBAL_EQUITY_MARKET_CAP_USD * SE_BOT_REFERENCE_AUM_USD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nG_{1T} = \\alpha_{bot} \\times Benefit_{peace,soc} \\times \\frac{f_{equity}}{M_{equity}} \\times AUM_{ref}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":19751.478260869564},"SE_BOT_AUM_1T_PORTFOLIO_ROI":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/special-education.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[0.00029935558410074505,1.0544623696569047],"conservative":null,"description":"Portfolio-only ROI for a $1T AUM investor: expected portfolio gain divided by annual bot operating cost. Under the central case this does not include social value, donations, or reputational value.","displayName":"$1T AUM Portfolio-Only ROI from SE Bot","formatted":"0.0676420488385944 ratio","formula":"SE_BOT_AUM_1T_EXPECTED_PORTFOLIO_GAIN_USD / SE_BOT_ANNUAL_OPERATIONAL_COST_USD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nROI_{1T} = \\frac{G_{1T}}{C_{annual}} = \\frac{\\$19.8K}{\\$292K} = 0.0676\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } G_{1T} = \\alpha_{bot} \\times Benefit_{peace,soc} \\times \\frac{f_{equity}}{M_{equity}} \\times AUM_{ref}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{annual} = C_{post} \\times V_{posts} \\times 365 = \\$0.008 \\times 100{,}000 \\times 365 = \\$292K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{post} = C_{llm} + C_{platform} = \\$0.006 + \\$0.002 = \\$0.008\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":0.0676420488385944},"SE_BOT_AUM_1T_UNIVERSAL_OWNER_BREAKEVEN_ATTRIBUTION_FRACTION":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/special-education.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[4.695207746001827e-8,0.000008773413188088003],"conservative":null,"description":"Political dysfunction attribution fraction required for a $1T universal-owner investor's portfolio gain to cover annual Special Education operating cost.","displayName":"$1T AUM Universal-Owner Breakeven Attribution Fraction","formatted":"0.0%","formula":"SE_BOT_ANNUAL_OPERATIONAL_COST_USD * SE_BOT_GLOBAL_EQUITY_MARKET_CAP_USD / (POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_OPPORTUNITY_COST_TOTAL * SE_BOT_EQUITY_UPLIFT_CAPTURE_FRACTION * SE_BOT_REFERENCE_AUM_USD)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\alpha_{breakeven,UO} = C_{annual} \\times M_{equity} / (O_{total} \\times f_{equity} \\times AUM_{ref})\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{annual} = C_{post} \\times V_{posts} \\times 365 = \\$0.008 \\times 100{,}000 \\times 365 = \\$292K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{post} = C_{llm} + C_{platform} = \\$0.006 + \\$0.002 = \\$0.008\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } O_{total} = O_{health} + O_{science} + O_{lead} + O_{migration} = \\$34T + \\$4T + \\$6T + \\$57T = \\$101T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.000001662376237623762},"SE_BOT_AUM_1T_UNIVERSAL_OWNER_PORTFOLIO_GAIN_USD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/special-education.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[81721.23358126835,40892141.567865916],"conservative":null,"description":"Expected portfolio gain for a $1T universal-owner fund from one year of outbound Special Education. Calculation: attribution_fraction x political_dysfunction_tax x equity_capture_share / global_equity_market_cap x reference_AUM.","displayName":"$1T AUM Universal-Owner Portfolio Gain from Special Education","formatted":"$17.57M","formula":"SE_BOT_OUTCOME_ATTRIBUTION_FRACTION * POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_OPPORTUNITY_COST_TOTAL * SE_BOT_EQUITY_UPLIFT_CAPTURE_FRACTION / SE_BOT_GLOBAL_EQUITY_MARKET_CAP_USD * SE_BOT_REFERENCE_AUM_USD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nG_{UO,1T} = \\alpha_{bot} \\times O_{total} \\times \\frac{f_{equity}}{M_{equity}} \\times AUM_{ref}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } O_{total} = O_{health} + O_{science} + O_{lead} + O_{migration} = \\$34T + \\$4T + \\$6T + \\$57T = \\$101T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":17565217.391304348},"SE_BOT_AUM_1T_UNIVERSAL_OWNER_PORTFOLIO_ROI":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/special-education.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[0.25040911641189684,934.4706476791326],"conservative":null,"description":"Portfolio-only ROI for a $1T universal-owner investor: expected portfolio gain from political dysfunction tax recovery divided by annual Special Education operating cost.","displayName":"$1T AUM Universal-Owner Portfolio ROI from Special Education","formatted":"60.15485407980941 ratio","formula":"SE_BOT_AUM_1T_UNIVERSAL_OWNER_PORTFOLIO_GAIN_USD / SE_BOT_ANNUAL_OPERATIONAL_COST_USD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nROI_{UO,1T} = \\frac{G_{UO,1T}}{C_{annual}} = \\frac{\\$17.6M}{\\$292K} = 60.2\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } G_{UO,1T} = \\alpha_{bot} \\times O_{total} \\times \\frac{f_{equity}}{M_{equity}} \\times AUM_{ref}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } O_{total} = O_{health} + O_{science} + O_{lead} + O_{migration} = \\$34T + \\$4T + \\$6T + \\$57T = \\$101T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{annual} = C_{post} \\times V_{posts} \\times 365 = \\$0.008 \\times 100{,}000 \\times 365 = \\$292K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{post} = C_{llm} + C_{platform} = \\$0.006 + \\$0.002 = \\$0.008\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":60.15485407980941},"SE_BOT_COST_PER_BELIEF_CHANGE_USD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/special-education.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[0.011864479499159954,1.4355239140362535],"conservative":null,"description":"Cost per person whose belief is durably updated: cost_per_post / people_persuaded_per_post.","displayName":"SE Bot Cost Per Belief Change","formatted":"0.06666666666666667 USD/person","formula":"SE_BOT_COST_PER_POST_USD / SE_BOT_PEOPLE_PERSUADED_PER_POST","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nC_{belief} = \\frac{C_{post}}{N_{persuaded}} = \\frac{\\$0.008}{0.12} = \\$0.0667\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{post} = C_{llm} + C_{platform} = \\$0.006 + \\$0.002 = \\$0.008\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{persuaded} = P_{target} + M_{obs} \\times P_{obs} = 2\\% + 20 \\times 0.5\\% = 0.12\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":0.06666666666666667},"SE_BOT_COST_PER_POST_USD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/special-education.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[0.0025,0.022500017412398907],"conservative":null,"description":"Total marginal cost to generate, screen, and post one correction reply.","displayName":"SE Bot Cost Per Post","formatted":"$0.008","formula":"SE_BOT_LLM_COST_PER_POST_USD + SE_BOT_PLATFORM_OVERHEAD_PER_POST_USD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nC_{post} \\\\\n= C_{llm} + C_{platform} \\\\\n= \\$0.006 + \\$0.002 \\\\\n= \\$0.008\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":0.008},"SE_BOT_PEOPLE_PERSUADED_PER_POST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/special-education.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[0.005541112320915957,0.43676617953713204],"conservative":null,"description":"Expected number of people whose belief is durably updated per correction post: (1 target * target_change_rate) + (observer_multiplier * observer_change_rate). This counts modeled belief updates, not unique humans across the whole campaign.","displayName":"People Persuaded Per Post","formatted":"0.12000000000000001 people/post","formula":"SE_BOT_TARGET_BELIEF_CHANGE_RATE + SE_BOT_OBSERVER_MULTIPLIER * SE_BOT_OBSERVER_BELIEF_CHANGE_RATE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{persuaded} \\\\\n= P_{target} + M_{obs} \\times P_{obs} \\\\\n= 2\\% + 20 \\times 0.5\\% \\\\\n= 0.12\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"people/post","value":0.12000000000000001},"SE_BOT_POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_ANNUAL_EV_USD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/special-education.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[71023295.30739173,25366838518.093105],"conservative":null,"description":"Expected annual social value from outbound Special Education under the political dysfunction tax framing: attribution_fraction x annual global opportunity cost from governance failures. This is the broad public-value case, not a direct portfolio return.","displayName":"Special Education Political Dysfunction Expected Social Value","formatted":"10.10B USD/year","formula":"SE_BOT_OUTCOME_ATTRIBUTION_FRACTION * POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_OPPORTUNITY_COST_TOTAL","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nEV_{SE,PDT} = \\alpha_{bot} \\times O_{total} = 0.01\\% \\times \\$101T = \\$10.1B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } O_{total} = O_{health} + O_{science} + O_{lead} + O_{migration} = \\$34T + \\$4T + \\$6T + \\$57T = \\$101T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":10100000000},"SE_BOT_POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_ROI":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/special-education.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[170.40667741916042,536455.2937486497],"conservative":null,"description":"Broad social ROI for outbound Special Education: political_dysfunction_annual_EV / annual_operational_cost. This is useful as a social-value ceiling, while the universal-owner ROI estimates the investable portfolio case.","displayName":"Special Education Political Dysfunction Social ROI","formatted":"34,589.041 ratio","formula":"SE_BOT_POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_ANNUAL_EV_USD / SE_BOT_ANNUAL_OPERATIONAL_COST_USD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nROI_{SE,PDT} = \\frac{EV_{SE,PDT}}{C_{annual}} = \\frac{\\$10.1B}{\\$292K} = 34{,}600\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } EV_{SE,PDT} = \\alpha_{bot} \\times O_{total} = 0.01\\% \\times \\$101T = \\$10.1B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } O_{total} = O_{health} + O_{science} + O_{lead} + O_{migration} = \\$34T + \\$4T + \\$6T + \\$57T = \\$101T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{annual} = C_{post} \\times V_{posts} \\times 365 = \\$0.008 \\times 100{,}000 \\times 365 = \\$292K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{post} = C_{llm} + C_{platform} = \\$0.006 + \\$0.002 = \\$0.008\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":34589.04109589041},"SE_BOT_ROI":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/special-education.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[0.2066191808195078,606.6388342671968],"conservative":null,"description":"Conservative treaty-only social ROI for outbound Special Education: peace_dividend_annual_EV / annual_operational_cost. This excludes broader political dysfunction tax recovery and universal-owner portfolio gains.","displayName":"Special Education Peace-Dividend Social ROI","formatted":"38.89417808219178 ratio","formula":"SE_BOT_ANNUAL_EV_USD / SE_BOT_ANNUAL_OPERATIONAL_COST_USD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nROI_{bot} = \\frac{EV_{bot}}{C_{annual}} = \\frac{\\$11.4M}{\\$292K} = 38.9\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } EV_{bot} = \\alpha_{bot} \\times Benefit_{peace,soc} = 0.01\\% \\times \\$114B = \\$11.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{annual} = C_{post} \\times V_{posts} \\times 365 = \\$0.008 \\times 100{,}000 \\times 365 = \\$292K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{post} = C_{llm} + C_{platform} = \\$0.006 + \\$0.002 = \\$0.008\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":38.89417808219178},"SHARING_BREAKEVEN_ONE_IN_TREATY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/recruitment-and-propaganda-plan.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3713876.0568477893,14376789.146331815],"conservative":null,"description":"Breakeven probability expressed as '1 in N'. Forwarding has positive expected value if you believe there is at least a 1-in-N chance the plan works. For context, lightning strike odds are ~1 in 1.2 million.","displayName":"Sharing Breakeven (1 in N)","formatted":"8.66M ratio","formula":"1 / SHARING_BREAKEVEN_PROBABILITY_TREATY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{breakeven} = P_{breakeven} = 1\\text{ in }8.66M = 8.66M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } P_{breakeven} = \\frac{C_{share}}{\\Delta Y_{lifetime,treaty}} = \\frac{\\$0.0599}{\\$519K} = 1\\text{ in }8.66M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{share} = t_{share} \\times \\bar{w}_{hour} \\times 0.0167 = 0.5 \\times \\$7.19 \\times 0.0167 = \\$0.0599\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{w}_{hour} = \\frac{\\bar{y}_{0}}{H_{work}} = \\frac{\\$14.4K}{2{,}000} = \\$7.19\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta Y_{lifetime,treaty} = Y_{cum,treaty} - Y_{cum,earth} = \\$1.42M - \\$904K = \\$519K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,treaty} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,treaty})((1+g_{pc,treaty})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,treaty}} + \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$322T}{9.2B} = \\$35K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} = s_{ratchet} \\times 0.409 = 10\\% \\times 0.409 = 5.8\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease})^{\\frac{1}{H_{health,treaty}}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 8 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{remaining} = LE_{global} - Age_{median} = 73.4 - 30.5 = 42.9\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,earth} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":8663019.579252128},"SHARING_BREAKEVEN_PROBABILITY_TREATY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/recruitment-and-propaganda-plan.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[6.955656022857783e-8,2.692604927412795e-7],"conservative":null,"description":"Minimum probability that the plan works for forwarding to have positive expected value. EV > 0 when P(works) > cost_of_sharing / gain_if_works. Below this probability, not forwarding is rational. Above it, forwarding dominates. For context, the odds of being struck by lightning are ~1 in 1.2 million.","displayName":"Sharing Breakeven Probability","formatted":"1 in 8.66M","formula":"SHARING_OPPORTUNITY_COST / TREATY_TRAJECTORY_LIFETIME_INCOME_GAIN_PER_CAPITA","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nP_{breakeven} = \\frac{C_{share}}{\\Delta Y_{lifetime,treaty}} = \\frac{\\$0.0599}{\\$519K} = 1\\text{ in }8.66M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{share} = t_{share} \\times \\bar{w}_{hour} \\times 0.0167 = 0.5 \\times \\$7.19 \\times 0.0167 = \\$0.0599\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{w}_{hour} = \\frac{\\bar{y}_{0}}{H_{work}} = \\frac{\\$14.4K}{2{,}000} = \\$7.19\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta Y_{lifetime,treaty} = Y_{cum,treaty} - Y_{cum,earth} = \\$1.42M - \\$904K = \\$519K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,treaty} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,treaty})((1+g_{pc,treaty})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,treaty}} + \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$322T}{9.2B} = \\$35K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} = s_{ratchet} \\times 0.409 = 10\\% \\times 0.409 = 5.8\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease})^{\\frac{1}{H_{health,treaty}}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 8 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{remaining} = LE_{global} - Age_{median} = 73.4 - 30.5 = 42.9\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,earth} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"probability","value":1.1543319172393344e-7},"SHARING_OPPORTUNITY_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/recruitment-and-propaganda-plan.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.05867186854102727,0.06117320776477703],"conservative":null,"description":"Dollar cost of 30 seconds at global average hourly income. The maximum downside of forwarding the message if the plan is impossible.","displayName":"Sharing Opportunity Cost","formatted":"$0.06","formula":"(SHARING_TIME_MINUTES / 60) * GLOBAL_AVG_HOURLY_INCOME","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nC_{share} = t_{share} \\times \\bar{w}_{hour} \\times 0.0167 = 0.5 \\times \\$7.19 \\times 0.0167 = \\$0.0599\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{w}_{hour} = \\frac{\\bar{y}_{0}}{H_{work}} = \\frac{\\$14.4K}{2{,}000} = \\$7.19\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":0.059895833333333336},"SHARING_UPSIDE_DOWNSIDE_RATIO_TREATY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/recruitment-and-propaganda-plan.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3713876.0568477893,14376789.146331815],"conservative":null,"description":"Raw ratio of upside (lifetime income gain if plan works) to downside (cost of sharing if plan is impossible). Not expected value; see SHARING_BREAKEVEN_PROBABILITY_TREATY for the probability threshold that makes forwarding rational.","displayName":"Sharing Upside/Downside Ratio","formatted":"8.66M x","formula":"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_LIFETIME_INCOME_GAIN_PER_CAPITA / SHARING_OPPORTUNITY_COST","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{upside:downside} = \\frac{\\Delta Y_{lifetime,treaty}}{C_{share}} = \\frac{\\$519K}{\\$0.0599} = 8.66M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta Y_{lifetime,treaty} = Y_{cum,treaty} - Y_{cum,earth} = \\$1.42M - \\$904K = \\$519K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,treaty} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,treaty})((1+g_{pc,treaty})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,treaty}} + \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$322T}{9.2B} = \\$35K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} = s_{ratchet} \\times 0.409 = 10\\% \\times 0.409 = 5.8\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease})^{\\frac{1}{H_{health,treaty}}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 8 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{remaining} = LE_{global} - Age_{median} = 73.4 - 30.5 = 42.9\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,earth} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{share} = t_{share} \\times \\bar{w}_{hour} \\times 0.0167 = 0.5 \\times \\$7.19 \\times 0.0167 = \\$0.0599\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{w}_{hour} = \\frac{\\bar{y}_{0}}{H_{work}} = \\frac{\\$14.4K}{2{,}000} = \\$7.19\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":8663019.579252128},"SHIRT_INDUCED_LAUGHS_GAINED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/joke.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[970551315209844.2,9713934749019696],"conservative":null,"description":"Conservative first-order count of additional laughs across human history attributable to the shirt-triggered cascade. Computed as DALYs averted (healthy life-years restored by disease eradication) multiplied by laughs per healthy life-year. Does not count second-order laughs in future generations of human and post-human civilization whose existence is contingent on cascade triggering.","displayName":"Shirt-Induced Laughs Gained","formatted":"3507336.99B laughs","formula":"DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_PLUS_EFFICACY_LAG_DALYS × HUMAN_LAUGHS_PER_HEALTHY_LIFE_YEAR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nL_{shirt} = DALYs_{max} \\times L_{year} = 565B \\times 6{,}200 = 3510T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } L_{year} = L_{day} \\times 365 = 17 \\times 365 = 6{,}200\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"laughs","value":3507336993142948},"SHIRT_PROGRAM_EXPECTED_VALUE_PER_DOLLAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/joke.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[74113474.27997847,8212721232.944018],"conservative":null,"description":"Probability-weighted expected value per foundation-escrow dollar: treaty value multiplied by the cascade probability given seed, divided by the seed-program escrow. The defensible expected-value pitch for a skeptical foundation officer who does not want to bet on the headline ROI.","displayName":"Shirt Program Expected Value per Dollar","formatted":"423.93M ratio","formula":"(DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_PLUS_EFFICACY_LAG_ECONOMIC_VALUE × SHIRT_CASCADE_PROBABILITY_GIVEN_SEED) / SHIRT_SEED_PROGRAM_TOTAL_USD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nEV_{shirt} = (Value_{max} \\times P_{cascade,shirt}) / C_{seed,total}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Value_{max} = DALYs_{max} \\times Value_{QALY} = 565B \\times \\$150K = \\$84800T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{seed,total} = N_{seed,shirt} \\times C_{seed,wearer} = 1M \\times \\$50 = \\$50M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":423932755.0132492},"SHIRT_PROGRAM_ROI_RATIO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/joke.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[447129377.94529676,31122525895.4172],"conservative":null,"description":"Unconditional ROI ratio: treaty-trajectory total economic value divided by the seed-program escrow. Headline 'X-to-one' framing for foundations. Does NOT discount for cascade probability; see SHIRT_PROGRAM_EXPECTED_VALUE_PER_DOLLAR for the probability-weighted view.","displayName":"Shirt Program ROI Ratio","formatted":"1.70B ratio","formula":"DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_PLUS_EFFICACY_LAG_ECONOMIC_VALUE / SHIRT_SEED_PROGRAM_TOTAL_USD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nROI_{shirt} = \\frac{Value_{max}}{C_{seed,total}} = \\frac{\\$84800T}{\\$50M} = 1.7B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Value_{max} = DALYs_{max} \\times Value_{QALY} = 565B \\times \\$150K = \\$84800T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{seed,total} = N_{seed,shirt} \\times C_{seed,wearer} = 1M \\times \\$50 = \\$50M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":1695731020.0529969},"SHIRT_SEED_PROGRAM_TOTAL_USD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/joke.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3185347.222732526,167612047.87930748],"conservative":null,"description":"Total foundation escrow required to fund the seed-wearer program: threshold of visible humans multiplied by blended cost per wearer. Held in Earth Optimization Prize assurance contract; refunded at structural EOP return rate if neither treaty passage nor target hit.","displayName":"Shirt Seed Program Total Cost","formatted":"$50.00M","formula":"SHIRT_SEED_WEARERS_THRESHOLD × SHIRT_SEED_COST_PER_WEARER_USD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nC_{seed,total} \\\\\n= N_{seed,shirt} \\times C_{seed,wearer} \\\\\n= 1M \\times \\$50 \\\\\n= \\$50M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":50000000},"SHIRT_VALUE_PER_WEARER_USD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/joke.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[5364323.201973655,21447999.550951],"conservative":null,"description":"Treaty-trajectory economic value per shirt-wearing human: total treaty value (DFDA trial capacity plus efficacy lag elimination) divided by the 8B-human target wearer base. This is the headline framing for the foundation pitch: each marginal wearer carries this much unrealized treaty value. Computationally identical to CORPORATE_DAMAGES_FORWARD_SETTLEMENT_VALUE_PER_CAPITA under a different semantic frame.","displayName":"Shirt Value per Wearer","formatted":"$10.60M","formula":"DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_PLUS_EFFICACY_LAG_ECONOMIC_VALUE / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nV_{wearer} = \\frac{Value_{max}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$84800T}{8B} = \\$10.6M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Value_{max} = DALYs_{max} \\times Value_{QALY} = 565B \\times \\$150K = \\$84800T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":10598318.87533123},"STATUS_QUO_AVG_YEARS_TO_FIRST_TREATMENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[127.71197181792319,420.4156065275045],"conservative":null,"description":"Average years until first treatment discovered for a typical disease under current system. At current discovery rates, the average disease waits half the total exploration time (~443/2 = ~222 years).","displayName":"Status Quo Average Years to First Treatment","formatted":"221.66666666666666 years","formula":"STATUS_QUO_QUEUE_CLEARANCE_YEARS ÷ 2","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"status-quo-cure-timeline-estimate","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":221.66666666666666},"STATUS_QUO_QUEUE_CLEARANCE_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[255.42394363584637,840.831213055009],"conservative":null,"description":"Years to explore the entire therapeutic search space under current system. At current discovery rate of ~15 diseases/year getting first treatments, finding treatments for all ~6,650 untreated diseases would take ~443 years.","displayName":"Status Quo Therapeutic Space Exploration Time","formatted":"443.3333333333333 years","formula":"DISEASES_WITHOUT_EFFECTIVE_TREATMENT ÷ NEW_DISEASE_FIRST_TREATMENTS_PER_YEAR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"status-quo-cure-timeline-estimate","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":443.3333333333333},"THALIDOMIDE_DALYS_PER_EVENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[30378.69423135261,54467.449939585866],"conservative":null,"description":"Total DALYs per US-scale thalidomide event (YLL + YLD)","displayName":"Thalidomide DALYs Per Event","formatted":"41,760 DALYs","formula":"YLL + YLD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDALY_{thal} = YLD_{thal} + YLL_{thal} = 13{,}000 + 28{,}800 = 41{,}800\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLD_{thal} = DW_{thal} \\times N_{thal,survive} \\times LE_{thal} = 0.4 \\times 540 \\times 60 = 13{,}000\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{thal,survive} = N_{thal,US,prevent} \\times (1 - Rate_{thal,mort}) = 900 \\times (1 - 40\\%) = 540\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{thal,US,prevent} = N_{thal,global} \\times Pct_{US,1960} = 15{,}000 \\times 6\\% = 900\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLL_{thal} = Deaths_{thal} \\times 80 = 360 \\times 80 = 28{,}800\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{thal} = Rate_{thal,mort} \\times N_{thal,US,prevent} = 40\\% \\times 900 = 360\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"DALYs","value":41760},"THALIDOMIDE_DEATHS_PER_EVENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[260.91379347147733,471.8552904992137],"conservative":null,"description":"Deaths per US-scale thalidomide event","displayName":"Thalidomide Deaths Per Event","formatted":"360 deaths","formula":"US_CASES × MORTALITY_RATE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDeaths_{thal} = Rate_{thal,mort} \\times N_{thal,US,prevent} = 40\\% \\times 900 = 360\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{thal,US,prevent} = N_{thal,global} \\times Pct_{US,1960} = 15{,}000 \\times 6\\% = 900\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"deaths","value":360},"THALIDOMIDE_SURVIVORS_PER_EVENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[395.8582320274061,704.1738451195735],"conservative":null,"description":"Survivors per US-scale thalidomide event","displayName":"Thalidomide Survivors Per Event","formatted":"540 cases","formula":"US_CASES × (1 - MORTALITY_RATE)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{thal,survive} = N_{thal,US,prevent} \\times (1 - Rate_{thal,mort}) = 900 \\times (1 - 40\\%) = 540\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{thal,US,prevent} = N_{thal,global} \\times Pct_{US,1960} = 15{,}000 \\times 6\\% = 900\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"cases","value":540},"THALIDOMIDE_US_CASES_PREVENTED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[665.6755082833782,1165.575213432612],"conservative":null,"description":"Estimated US thalidomide cases prevented by FDA rejection","displayName":"Thalidomide US Cases Prevented","formatted":"900 cases","formula":"WORLDWIDE_CASES × US_POPULATION_SHARE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{thal,US,prevent} \\\\\n= N_{thal,global} \\times Pct_{US,1960} \\\\\n= 15{,}000 \\times 6\\% \\\\\n= 900\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"cases","value":900},"THALIDOMIDE_YLD_PER_EVENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[8780.487911280188,17930.918655211728],"conservative":null,"description":"Years Lived with Disability per thalidomide event","displayName":"Thalidomide YLD Per Event","formatted":"12,960 years","formula":"SURVIVORS × LIFESPAN × DISABILITY_WEIGHT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nYLD_{thal} = DW_{thal} \\times N_{thal,survive} \\times LE_{thal} = 0.4 \\times 540 \\times 60 = 13{,}000\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{thal,survive} = N_{thal,US,prevent} \\times (1 - Rate_{thal,mort}) = 900 \\times (1 - 40\\%) = 540\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{thal,US,prevent} = N_{thal,global} \\times Pct_{US,1960} = 15{,}000 \\times 6\\% = 900\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":12960},"THALIDOMIDE_YLL_PER_EVENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[20873.103477718185,37748.4232399371],"conservative":null,"description":"Years of Life Lost per thalidomide event (infant deaths)","displayName":"Thalidomide YLL Per Event","formatted":"28,800 years","formula":"DEATHS × 80 years","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nYLL_{thal} = Deaths_{thal} \\times 80 = 360 \\times 80 = 28{,}800\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{thal} = Rate_{thal,mort} \\times N_{thal,US,prevent} = 40\\% \\times 900 = 360\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{thal,US,prevent} = N_{thal,global} \\times Pct_{US,1960} = 15{,}000 \\times 6\\% = 900\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":28800},"THREE_POINT_FIVE_PERCENT_OF_GLOBAL_POPULATION":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[88031224.26052758,628167372.9231651],"conservative":null,"description":"Headcount implied by the 3.5% activism threshold applied to global population. This is a historical tipping-point benchmark, not the public majority-of-humanity coordination target. Wide CI reflects uncertainty in applying Chenoweth's national threshold to global treaty adoption.","displayName":"3.5% Activism Benchmark","formatted":"280.00M of people","formula":"GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024 × GLOBAL_POPULATION_ACTIVISM_THRESHOLD_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{activism} \\\\\n= Pop_{global} \\times Threshold_{activism} \\\\\n= 8B \\times 3.5\\% \\\\\n= 280M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"of people","value":280000000},"TOTAL_RESEARCH_FUNDING_WITH_TREATY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[83944464549.65633,106594091855.85791],"conservative":null,"description":"Total global research funding (baseline + 1% treaty funding)","displayName":"Total Global Research Funding (Baseline + 1% treaty Funding)","formatted":"$94.70B","formula":"GLOBAL_MED_RESEARCH_SPENDING + TREATY_ANNUAL_FUNDING","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nFunding_{RD,total} = Spending_{RD} + Funding_{treaty} = \\$67.5B + \\$27.2B = \\$94.7B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":94700000000},"TOTAL_TESTABLE_THERAPEUTIC_COMBINATIONS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[41854069.67832171,61593274.72054099],"conservative":null,"description":"Total testable therapeutic combinations (known safe compounds + emerging modalities)","displayName":"Total Testable Therapeutic Space","formatted":"51.50M combinations","formula":"KNOWN_SAFE + EMERGING_MODALITIES","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{testable} = N_{combos} + N_{emerging} = 9.5M + 42M = 51.5M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{combos} = N_{safe} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 9{,}500 \\times 1{,}000 = 9.5M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{emerging} = Combos_{gene} + Combos_{mRNA} + Combos_{epi} + Combos_{cell} = 20M + 20M + 1.5M + 500{,}000 = 42M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{gene} = N_{genes} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 20{,}000 \\times 1{,}000 = 20M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{mRNA} = N_{genes} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 20{,}000 \\times 1{,}000 = 20M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{epi} = N_{epi} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 1{,}500 \\times 1{,}000 = 1.5M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{cell} = N_{cell} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 500 \\times 1{,}000 = 500{,}000\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"combinations","value":51500000},"TREATY_ANNUAL_FUNDING":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Annual funding from 1% of global military spending redirected to DIH","displayName":"Annual Funding from 1% of Global Military Spending Redirected to DIH","formatted":"27.20B USD/year","formula":"MILITARY_SPENDING × 1%","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nFunding_{treaty} \\\\\n= Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} \\\\\n= \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% \\\\\n= \\$27.2B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":27200000000},"TREATY_BENEFIT_MULTIPLIER_VS_VACCINES":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[7.306780593596599,19.418484613426227],"conservative":null,"description":"Treaty system benefit multiplier vs childhood vaccination programs","displayName":"Treaty System Benefit Multiplier vs Childhood Vaccination Programs","formatted":"11.480765853658538 x","formula":"TREATY_CONSERVATIVE_BENEFIT ÷ CHILDHOOD_VACCINATION_BENEFIT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{treaty:vax} = \\frac{Benefit_{peace+RD}}{Benefit_{vax,ann}} = \\frac{\\$172B}{\\$15B} = 11.5\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace+RD} = Benefit_{peace,soc} + Benefit_{RD,ann} = \\$114B + \\$58.6B = \\$172B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{RD,ann} = Spending_{trials} \\times Reduce_{pct} = \\$60B \\times 97.7\\% = \\$58.6B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Reduce_{pct} = 1 - \\frac{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}}{Cost_{P3,pt}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$929}{\\$41K} = 97.7\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":11.480765853658538},"TREATY_CAMPAIGN_ANNUAL_COST_AMORTIZED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[167920848.46921757,368894587.9965118],"conservative":null,"description":"Amortized annual campaign cost (total cost ÷ campaign duration)","displayName":"Amortized Annual Treaty Campaign Cost","formatted":"250.00M USD/year","formula":"TOTAL_COST ÷ DURATION","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{camp,amort} = \\frac{Cost_{campaign}}{T_{campaign}} = \\frac{\\$1B}{4} = \\$250M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{campaign} = Budget_{viral,base} + Budget_{lobby,treaty} + Budget_{reserve} = \\$250M + \\$650M + \\$100M = \\$1B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":250000000},"TREATY_CAMPAIGN_TOTAL_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[671683393.8768703,1475578351.9860473],"conservative":null,"description":"Total treaty campaign cost (100% VICTORY Incentive Alignment Bonds)","displayName":"Total 1% Treaty Campaign Cost","formatted":"$1.00B","formula":"REFERENDUM + LOBBYING + RESERVE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{campaign} \\\\\n= Budget_{viral,base} + Budget_{lobby,treaty} \\\\\n+ Budget_{reserve} \\\\\n= \\$250M + \\$650M + \\$100M \\\\\n= \\$1B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1000000000},"TREATY_COST_PER_DALY_TRIAL_CAPACITY_PLUS_EFFICACY_LAG":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.0008091074545090181,0.003539850252606732],"conservative":null,"description":"Cost per DALY averted from elimination of efficacy lag plus earlier treatment discovery from increased trial throughput. Only counts campaign cost; ignores economic benefits from funding and R&D savings.","displayName":"Cost per DALY Averted (Elimination of Efficacy Lag Plus Earlier Treatment Discovery from Increased Trial Throughput)","formatted":"0.001769148505584477 USD/DALY","formula":"CAMPAIGN_COST ÷ DALYS_TIMELINE_SHIFT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{treaty,DALY} = \\frac{Cost_{campaign}}{DALYs_{max}} = \\frac{\\$1B}{565B} = \\$0.00177\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{campaign} = Budget_{viral,base} + Budget_{lobby,treaty} + Budget_{reserve} = \\$250M + \\$650M + \\$100M = \\$1B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/DALY","value":0.001769148505584477},"TREATY_CUMULATIVE_20YR_WITH_RATCHET":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1187746350278.5852,4812359937720.156],"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative treaty funding over 20 years with IAB ratchet expansion following roadmap timeline. Expansion driven by bondholder lobbying incentives (10% of treaty inflows).","displayName":"Cumulative Treaty Funding over 20 Years with IAB Ratchet Expansion","formatted":"$3.16T","formula":"GLOBAL_MILITARY × (0.01×3 + min(0.02, TREATY_RATCHET_TERMINAL_SHARE)×4 + min(0.05, TREATY_RATCHET_TERMINAL_SHARE)×5 + TREATY_RATCHET_TERMINAL_SHARE×8)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nFund_{20yr,ratchet} \\\\\n= \\text{GLOBAL\\_MILITARY} \\times (0.01 \\times 3 \\\\\n+ \\min\\left(0.02, s_{ratchet}\\right) \\times 4 \\\\\n+ \\min\\left(0.05, s_{ratchet}\\right) \\times 5 \\\\\n+ s_{ratchet} \\times 8)\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":3155200000000.0005},"TREATY_CYBERCRIME_RECOVERY_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.0018932174802183937,0.00540807059990902],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual GDP growth bonus by year 15 from reducing cybercrime drag as the treaty weakens the destructive economy feedback loop.","displayName":"Treaty Cybercrime Recovery GDP Growth Bonus (Year 15)","formatted":"0.4%","formula":"(GLOBAL_CYBERCRIME_COST_ANNUAL_2025 ÷ GLOBAL_GDP_2025) × TREATY_EFFECTIVE_REALLOCATION_SHARE_YEAR_15 × PEACE_DIVIDEND_CONFLICT_ELASTICITY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\ng_{cyber,treaty,15} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} = s_{ratchet} \\times 0.212 = 10\\% \\times 0.212 = 4.4\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.004017391304347827},"TREATY_CYBERCRIME_RECOVERY_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.0019935001083639936,0.00807701076503543],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual GDP growth bonus by year 20 from reducing cybercrime drag as the treaty weakens the destructive economy feedback loop.","displayName":"Treaty Cybercrime Recovery GDP Growth Bonus (Year 20)","formatted":"0.5%","formula":"(GLOBAL_CYBERCRIME_COST_ANNUAL_2025 ÷ GLOBAL_GDP_2025) × TREATY_EFFECTIVE_REALLOCATION_SHARE_YEAR_20 × PEACE_DIVIDEND_CONFLICT_ELASTICITY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\ng_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} = s_{ratchet} \\times 0.409 = 10\\% \\times 0.409 = 5.8\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.005295652173913044},"TREATY_DISEASE_CURE_FRACTION_15YR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.4953433326168179,1],"conservative":null,"description":"Fraction of currently untreatable diseases with a first effective treatment by year 15 under the treaty: queue progress integrated over the ratchet schedule, with trial capacity scaling linearly with funding up to the physical participant ceiling. Binds the single ratchet knob: at TREATY_RATCHET_TERMINAL_SHARE = 0.01 (ratchet off) this degrades to 15/36 of the queue (~42%); on the central schedule the queue clears around year 12, so the central is 100%. The ~36-year queue-clearance figure quoted elsewhere is the flat-1% case by construction.","displayName":"Treaty Disease Cure Fraction (15yr, Ratchet Schedule)","formatted":"100.0%","formula":"min(1.0, (3×min(DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER×(0.01/0.01), DFDA_MAX_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER_PHYSICAL) + 4×min(DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER×(min(0.02, TREATY_RATCHET_TERMINAL_SHARE)/0.01), DFDA_MAX_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER_PHYSICAL) + 5×min(DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER×(min(0.05, TREATY_RATCHET_TERMINAL_SHARE)/0.01), DFDA_MAX_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER_PHYSICAL) + 3×min(DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER×(TREATY_RATCHET_TERMINAL_SHARE/0.01), DFDA_MAX_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER_PHYSICAL)) ÷ STATUS_QUO_QUEUE_CLEARANCE_YEARS)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nf_{cure,15,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":1},"TREATY_DISEASE_CURE_FRACTION_20YR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.7828067231862692,1],"conservative":null,"description":"Fraction of currently untreatable diseases with a first effective treatment by year 20 under the treaty: queue progress integrated over the ratchet schedule, with trial capacity scaling linearly with funding up to the physical participant ceiling. Binds the single ratchet knob: at TREATY_RATCHET_TERMINAL_SHARE = 0.01 (ratchet off) this degrades to 20/36 of the queue (~56%); on the central schedule the queue clears around year 12, so the central is 100%. The ~36-year queue-clearance figure quoted elsewhere is the flat-1% case by construction.","displayName":"Treaty Disease Cure Fraction (20yr, Ratchet Schedule)","formatted":"100.0%","formula":"min(1.0, (3×min(DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER×(0.01/0.01), DFDA_MAX_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER_PHYSICAL) + 4×min(DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER×(min(0.02, TREATY_RATCHET_TERMINAL_SHARE)/0.01), DFDA_MAX_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER_PHYSICAL) + 5×min(DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER×(min(0.05, TREATY_RATCHET_TERMINAL_SHARE)/0.01), DFDA_MAX_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER_PHYSICAL) + 8×min(DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER×(TREATY_RATCHET_TERMINAL_SHARE/0.01), DFDA_MAX_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER_PHYSICAL)) ÷ STATUS_QUO_QUEUE_CLEARANCE_YEARS)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nf_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 8 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":1},"TREATY_EFFECTIVE_REALLOCATION_SHARE_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.020735239069058598,0.059231249427574975],"conservative":null,"description":"Average military-to-medicine reallocation share over 15 years under the treaty take-hold path (1% for 3 years, 2% for 4 years, 5% for 5 years, terminal ratchet share for 3 years). Binds the single ratchet knob: at TREATY_RATCHET_TERMINAL_SHARE = 0.01 this degrades to a flat 1%.","displayName":"Treaty Effective Reallocation Share (Year 15)","formatted":"4.4%","formula":"(0.01×3 + min(0.02, TREATY_RATCHET_TERMINAL_SHARE)×4 + min(0.05, TREATY_RATCHET_TERMINAL_SHARE)×5 + TREATY_RATCHET_TERMINAL_SHARE×3) / 15","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\bar{s}_{treaty,15} \\\\\n= s_{ratchet} \\times 0.212 \\\\\n= 10\\% \\times 0.212 \\\\\n= 4.4\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.044000000000000004},"TREATY_EFFECTIVE_REALLOCATION_SHARE_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.02183357261541517,0.08846249885514994],"conservative":null,"description":"Average military-to-medicine reallocation share over 20 years under the treaty take-hold path (1% for 3 years, 2% for 4 years, 5% for 5 years, terminal ratchet share for 8 years). Binds the single ratchet knob: at TREATY_RATCHET_TERMINAL_SHARE = 0.01 this degrades to a flat 1%.","displayName":"Treaty Effective Reallocation Share (Year 20)","formatted":"5.8%","formula":"(0.01×3 + min(0.02, TREATY_RATCHET_TERMINAL_SHARE)×4 + min(0.05, TREATY_RATCHET_TERMINAL_SHARE)×5 + TREATY_RATCHET_TERMINAL_SHARE×8) / 20","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\\\\n= s_{ratchet} \\times 0.409 \\\\\n= 10\\% \\times 0.409 \\\\\n= 5.8\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.05800000000000001},"TREATY_EXPECTED_COST_PER_DALY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[0.030039389095049846,2.9152668524765826],"conservative":null,"description":"Expected cost per DALY accounting for political success probability uncertainty. Monte Carlo samples from beta(0.1%, 10%) distribution. At the conservative 1% estimate, this is still more cost-effective than bed nets ($89.0/DALY).","displayName":"Expected Cost per DALY (Risk-Adjusted)","formatted":"0.1769148505584477 USD/DALY","formula":"CONDITIONAL_COST_PER_DALY ÷ POLITICAL_SUCCESS_PROBABILITY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nE[Cost_{DALY}] = \\frac{Cost_{treaty,DALY}}{P_{success}} = \\frac{\\$0.00177}{1\\%} = \\$0.177\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{treaty,DALY} = \\frac{Cost_{campaign}}{DALYs_{max}} = \\frac{\\$1B}{565B} = \\$0.00177\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{campaign} = Budget_{viral,base} + Budget_{lobby,treaty} + Budget_{reserve} = \\$250M + \\$650M + \\$100M = \\$1B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/DALY","value":0.1769148505584477},"TREATY_EXPECTED_ROI_TRIAL_CAPACITY_PLUS_EFFICACY_LAG":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[47788.384757037245,4949530.481328109],"conservative":null,"description":"Expected ROI for 1% treaty accounting for political success probability uncertainty. Monte Carlo samples POLITICAL_SUCCESS_PROBABILITY from beta(0.1%, 10%) distribution to generate full expected value distribution. Central value uses 1% probability.","displayName":"Expected Treaty ROI (Risk-Adjusted)","formatted":"847,865.51 ratio","formula":"TREATY_ROI_TRIAL_CAPACITY_PLUS_EFFICACY_LAG × POLITICAL_SUCCESS_PROBABILITY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nE[ROI_{max}] = ROI_{max} \\times P_{success} = 84.8M \\times 1\\% = 848{,}000\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } ROI_{max} = \\frac{Value_{max}}{Cost_{campaign}} = \\frac{\\$84800T}{\\$1B} = 84.8M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Value_{max} = DALYs_{max} \\times Value_{QALY} = 565B \\times \\$150K = \\$84800T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{campaign} = Budget_{viral,base} + Budget_{lobby,treaty} + Budget_{reserve} = \\$250M + \\$650M + \\$100M = \\$1B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"calculated","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":847865.5100264985},"TREATY_EXPECTED_VS_BED_NETS_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[30.52866072610053,2967.8249987351983],"conservative":null,"description":"Expected value multiplier vs bed nets (accounts for political uncertainty at 1% success rate)","displayName":"Expected Cost-Effectiveness vs Bed Nets Multiplier","formatted":"503.06686928238906 x","formula":"BED_NETS_COST_PER_DALY ÷ TREATY_EXPECTED_COST_PER_DALY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nE[k_{nets}] = \\frac{Cost_{nets}}{E[Cost_{DALY}]} = \\frac{\\$89}{\\$0.177} = 503\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } E[Cost_{DALY}] = \\frac{Cost_{treaty,DALY}}{P_{success}} = \\frac{\\$0.00177}{1\\%} = \\$0.177\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{treaty,DALY} = \\frac{Cost_{campaign}}{DALYs_{max}} = \\frac{\\$1B}{565B} = \\$0.00177\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{campaign} = Budget_{viral,base} + Budget_{lobby,treaty} + Budget_{reserve} = \\$250M + \\$650M + \\$100M = \\$1B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":503.06686928238906},"TREATY_HALE_GAIN_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[6.529863154778496,27.384883027849046],"conservative":null,"description":"HALE improvement at year 15 under Treaty Trajectory. It includes both closing the current HALE gap from disease/disability and a conservative partial realization of longer-run longevity gains.","displayName":"Treaty HALE Gain at Year 15","formatted":"16.10000000000001 years","formula":"TREATY_DISEASE_CURE_FRACTION_15YR × GLOBAL_HALE_GAP + TREATY_LONGEVITY_HALE_GAIN_YEAR_15","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\Delta HALE_{treaty,15} = f_{cure,15,treaty} \\times \\Delta_{HALE} + \\Delta HALE_{treaty,longevity,15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{treaty,longevity,15} = T_{extend} \\times \\rho_{HALE,15} \\times f_{cure,15,treaty} = 20 \\times 30\\% \\times 100\\% = 6\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":16.10000000000001},"TREATY_HALE_VALUE_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[893314.1075467657,4326988.005487934],"conservative":null,"description":"Economic value of Treaty Trajectory HALE gains at year 15 using the standard QALY value.","displayName":"Treaty HALE Value Per Capita","formatted":"2.42M USD/person","formula":"TREATY_HALE_GAIN_YEAR_15 × STANDARD_ECONOMIC_QALY_VALUE_USD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nValue_{HALE,treaty} = \\Delta HALE_{treaty,15} \\times Value_{QALY} = 16.1 \\times \\$150K = \\$2.42M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{treaty,15} = f_{cure,15,treaty} \\times \\Delta_{HALE} + \\Delta HALE_{treaty,longevity,15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{treaty,longevity,15} = T_{extend} \\times \\rho_{HALE,15} \\times f_{cure,15,treaty} = 20 \\times 30\\% \\times 100\\% = 6\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":2415000.0000000014},"TREATY_HEALTH_RECOVERY_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.004169081074580716,0.00818112618391198],"conservative":null,"description":"Annualized GDP growth bonus by year 15 from lower disease burden under the treaty path. Deliberately EXCLUDES the monetized value of life-years from eliminating the existing-drug efficacy lag, matching the year-20 model and the chapter's stated accounting rule: that value belongs in health and welfare accounting, not in the output ledger. (The previous version injected the $259T cumulative mortality-valuation stock into an annual growth rate, producing a year-15 income ABOVE the year-20 income on the same trajectory.)","displayName":"Treaty Health Recovery GDP Growth Bonus (Year 15)","formatted":"0.8%","formula":"((1 + TREATY_DISEASE_CURE_FRACTION_15YR × DISEASE_BURDEN_GDP_DRAG_PCT)^(1/15)) - 1","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\ng_{health,treaty,15} = \\frac{f_{cure,15,treaty} - d_{disease}}{-7.22} = \\frac{100\\% - 13\\%}{-7.22} = 0.818\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.00818112618391198},"TREATY_HEALTH_RECOVERY_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.004857425475002864,0.006129591164554027],"conservative":null,"description":"Annualized GDP growth bonus by year 20 from lower disease burden under the treaty path.","displayName":"Treaty Health Recovery GDP Growth Bonus (Year 20)","formatted":"0.6%","formula":"((1 + TREATY_DISEASE_CURE_FRACTION_20YR × DISEASE_BURDEN_GDP_DRAG_PCT)^(1 ÷ TREATY_HEALTH_RECOVERY_ANNUALIZATION_YEARS)) - 1","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\ng_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease})^{\\frac{1}{H_{health,treaty}}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 8 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.006129591164554027},"TREATY_LIVES_SAVED_ANNUAL_GLOBAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1983.8324728086818,2974.5221949668394],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual lives saved from 1% reduction in conflict deaths","displayName":"Annual Lives Saved from 1% Reduction in Conflict Deaths","formatted":"2,446 lives/year","formula":"TOTAL_DEATHS × REDUCTION_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nLives_{treaty,ann} = Deaths_{conflict} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = 245{,}000 \\times 1\\% = 2{,}450\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{conflict} = Deaths_{combat} + Deaths_{state} + Deaths_{terror} = 234{,}000 + 2{,}700 + 8{,}300 = 245{,}000\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"lives/year","value":2446},"TREATY_LONGEVITY_HALE_GAIN_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.6829866704367682,17.317427748752888],"conservative":null,"description":"Additional healthy years at year 15 from partial realization of longer-run treaty longevity gains. This removes the implicit cap at today's life expectancy while keeping year-15 realization conservative.","displayName":"Treaty Longevity HALE Gain at Year 15","formatted":"6 years","formula":"LIFE_EXTENSION_YEARS × HALE_LONGEVITY_REALIZATION_SHARE_YEAR_15 × TREATY_DISEASE_CURE_FRACTION_15YR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\Delta HALE_{treaty,longevity,15} = T_{extend} \\times \\rho_{HALE,15} \\times f_{cure,15,treaty} = 20 \\times 30\\% \\times 100\\% = 6\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":6},"TREATY_PEACE_PLUS_RD_ANNUAL_BENEFITS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[153149913936.42102,192374465444.82422],"conservative":null,"description":"Basic annual benefits: peace dividend + pragmatic trial R&D savings only (2 of 8 benefit categories, excludes regulatory delay value)","displayName":"1% treaty Basic Annual Benefits (Peace + R&D Savings)","formatted":"172.21B USD/year","formula":"PEACE_DIVIDEND + PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_RD_SAVINGS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nBenefit_{peace+RD} = Benefit_{peace,soc} + Benefit_{RD,ann} = \\$114B + \\$58.6B = \\$172B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{RD,ann} = Spending_{trials} \\times Reduce_{pct} = \\$60B \\times 97.7\\% = \\$58.6B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Reduce_{pct} = 1 - \\frac{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}}{Cost_{P3,pt}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$929}{\\$41K} = 97.7\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":172211487804.87805},"TREATY_PEACE_RECOVERY_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.0020037001332480846,0.0059210039393811885],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual GDP growth bonus by year 15 from explicit avoided war-cost drag under the treaty take-hold path.","displayName":"Treaty Peace Recovery GDP Growth Bonus (Year 15)","formatted":"0.4%","formula":"(PEACE_DIVIDEND_ANNUAL_SOCIETAL_BENEFIT ÷ GLOBAL_GDP_2025) × (TREATY_EFFECTIVE_REALLOCATION_SHARE_YEAR_15 ÷ TREATY_REDUCTION_PCT) × PEACE_DIVIDEND_CONFLICT_ELASTICITY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\ng_{peace,treaty,15} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,15}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} = s_{ratchet} \\times 0.212 = 10\\% \\times 0.212 = 4.4\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.004345325217391305},"TREATY_PEACE_RECOVERY_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.0021109282680983046,0.008769453415974354],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual GDP growth bonus by year 20 from explicit avoided war-cost drag under the treaty take-hold path.","displayName":"Treaty Peace Recovery GDP Growth Bonus (Year 20)","formatted":"0.6%","formula":"(PEACE_DIVIDEND_ANNUAL_SOCIETAL_BENEFIT ÷ GLOBAL_GDP_2025) × (TREATY_EFFECTIVE_REALLOCATION_SHARE_YEAR_20 ÷ TREATY_REDUCTION_PCT) × PEACE_DIVIDEND_CONFLICT_ELASTICITY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\ng_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} = s_{ratchet} \\times 0.409 = 10\\% \\times 0.409 = 5.8\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.005727928695652175},"TREATY_PERSONAL_UPSIDE_BLEND":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1286556.4589105726,4912184.646547883],"conservative":null,"description":"Blended personal upside under Treaty Trajectory: lifetime income gain plus valued healthy-life gains.","displayName":"Treaty Personal Upside (Blended)","formatted":"2.93M USD/person","formula":"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_LIFETIME_INCOME_GAIN_PER_CAPITA + TREATY_HALE_VALUE_PER_CAPITA","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nUpside_{blend,treaty} = \\Delta Y_{lifetime,treaty} + Value_{HALE,treaty} = \\$519K + \\$2.42M = \\$2.93M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta Y_{lifetime,treaty} = Y_{cum,treaty} - Y_{cum,earth} = \\$1.42M - \\$904K = \\$519K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,treaty} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,treaty})((1+g_{pc,treaty})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,treaty}} + \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$322T}{9.2B} = \\$35K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} = s_{ratchet} \\times 0.409 = 10\\% \\times 0.409 = 5.8\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease})^{\\frac{1}{H_{health,treaty}}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 8 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{remaining} = LE_{global} - Age_{median} = 73.4 - 30.5 = 42.9\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,earth} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Value_{HALE,treaty} = \\Delta HALE_{treaty,15} \\times Value_{QALY} = 16.1 \\times \\$150K = \\$2.42M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{treaty,15} = f_{cure,15,treaty} \\times \\Delta_{HALE} + \\Delta HALE_{treaty,longevity,15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{treaty,longevity,15} = T_{extend} \\times \\rho_{HALE,15} \\times f_{cure,15,treaty} = 20 \\times 30\\% \\times 100\\% = 6\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":2933878.7768822904},"TREATY_PROJECTED_HALE_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/earth-optimization-prize-protocol.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[70.24020270953231,90.73499843052598],"conservative":null,"description":"Projected global HALE at year 15 under Treaty Trajectory. Current HALE plus the treaty-driven improvement from closing the disease gap.","displayName":"Treaty Projected HALE at Year 15","formatted":"79.4 years","formula":"GLOBAL_HALE_CURRENT + TREATY_HALE_GAIN_YEAR_15","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nHALE_{treaty,15} = HALE_{0} + \\Delta HALE_{treaty,15} = 63.3 + 16.1 = 79.4\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{treaty,15} = f_{cure,15,treaty} \\times \\Delta_{HALE} + \\Delta HALE_{treaty,longevity,15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{treaty,longevity,15} = T_{extend} \\times \\rho_{HALE,15} \\times f_{cure,15,treaty} = 20 \\times 30\\% \\times 100\\% = 6\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":79.4},"TREATY_QALYS_GAINED_ANNUAL_GLOBAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[54358.80812624854,120404.48767542581],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual QALYs gained from peace dividend (lives saved × QALYs/life)","displayName":"Annual QALYs Gained from Peace Dividend","formatted":"85,610 QALYs/year","formula":"LIVES_SAVED × QALYS_PER_LIFE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nQALY_{treaty,ann} = QALY_{life} \\times Lives_{treaty,ann} = 35 \\times 2{,}450 = 85{,}600\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{treaty,ann} = Deaths_{conflict} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = 245{,}000 \\times 1\\% = 2{,}450\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{conflict} = Deaths_{combat} + Deaths_{state} + Deaths_{terror} = 234{,}000 + 2{,}700 + 8{,}300 = 245{,}000\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"QALYs/year","value":85610},"TREATY_REDIRECT_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.0034158190365080558,0.012361257651866134],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual GDP growth bonus by year 15 from redirecting military spending to medical research under the treaty take-hold path, including R&D spillovers.","displayName":"Treaty Redirect GDP Growth Bonus (Year 15)","formatted":"0.8%","formula":"TREATY_EFFECTIVE_REALLOCATION_SHARE_YEAR_15 × ((MILITARY_REDIRECT_GDP_BOOST_AT_30PCT ÷ 0.30) × (RD_SPILLOVER_MULTIPLIER ÷ 2.0))","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\ng_{redirect,treaty,15} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 4.4\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 0.807\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} = s_{ratchet} \\times 0.212 = 10\\% \\times 0.212 = 4.4\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.008066666666666668},"TREATY_REDIRECT_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.0036337907404370303,0.017878401268824097],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual GDP growth bonus by year 20 from redirecting military spending to medical research under the treaty take-hold path, including R&D spillovers.","displayName":"Treaty Redirect GDP Growth Bonus (Year 20)","formatted":"1.1%","formula":"TREATY_EFFECTIVE_REALLOCATION_SHARE_YEAR_20 × ((MILITARY_REDIRECT_GDP_BOOST_AT_30PCT ÷ 0.30) × (RD_SPILLOVER_MULTIPLIER ÷ 2.0))","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\ng_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} = s_{ratchet} \\times 0.409 = 10\\% \\times 0.409 = 5.8\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.010633333333333337},"TREATY_ROI_EXISTING_DRUGS_ONLY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[116521.98227298341,600110.6431801819],"conservative":null,"description":"Treaty ROI based on historical rate of drug development (existing drugs only). Total one-time benefit from avoiding regulatory delay for drugs already in development divided by campaign cost. Excludes future innovation effects.","displayName":"Treaty ROI - Historical Rate (Existing Drugs)","formatted":"289,593.25 ratio","formula":"HISTORICAL_PROGRESS_TOTAL ÷ CAMPAIGN_COST","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nROI_{drugs} = \\frac{Loss_{lag}}{Cost_{campaign}} = \\frac{\\$290T}{\\$1B} = 290{,}000\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{lag} = \\text{DEATHS\\_TOTAL} \\times (REMAINING_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_AT_60 - (\\text{MEAN\\_AGE\\_OF\\_DEATH} - 60)) \\times \\text{VSLY}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{campaign} = Budget_{viral,base} + Budget_{lobby,treaty} + Budget_{reserve} = \\$250M + \\$650M + \\$100M = \\$1B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":289593.25},"TREATY_ROI_TRIAL_CAPACITY_PLUS_EFFICACY_LAG":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[39647180.12279288,194492841.3310951],"conservative":null,"description":"Treaty ROI from elimination of efficacy lag plus earlier treatment discovery from increased trial throughput. Total one-time benefit divided by campaign cost. This is the primary ROI estimate for total health benefits.","displayName":"Treaty ROI - Elimination of Efficacy Lag Plus Earlier Treatment Discovery from Increased Trial Throughput","formatted":"84.79M ratio","formula":"TOTAL_TIMELINE_SHIFT_ECONOMIC_VALUE ÷ CAMPAIGN_COST","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nROI_{max} = \\frac{Value_{max}}{Cost_{campaign}} = \\frac{\\$84800T}{\\$1B} = 84.8M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Value_{max} = DALYs_{max} \\times Value_{QALY} = 565B \\times \\$150K = \\$84800T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{campaign} = Budget_{viral,base} + Budget_{lobby,treaty} + Budget_{reserve} = \\$250M + \\$650M + \\$100M = \\$1B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":84786551.00264984},"TREATY_TOTAL_ANNUAL_COSTS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[206997998.6262079,408811903.53967863],"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual treaty system costs (campaign + pragmatic trial platform operations)","displayName":"Total Annual Treaty System Costs","formatted":"290.00M USD/year","formula":"CAMPAIGN_ANNUAL + TRIAL_PLATFORM_OPEX","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{treaty,ann} = OPEX_{trial} + Cost_{camp,amort} = \\$40M + \\$250M = \\$290M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{camp,amort} = \\frac{Cost_{campaign}}{T_{campaign}} = \\frac{\\$1B}{4} = \\$250M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{campaign} = Budget_{viral,base} + Budget_{lobby,treaty} + Budget_{reserve} = \\$250M + \\$650M + \\$100M = \\$1B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":290000000},"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_AVG_INCOME_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[22882.126279745335,29273.870690765114],"conservative":null,"description":"Average income (GDP per capita) at year 15 under the Treaty Trajectory.","displayName":"Treaty Trajectory Average Income at Year 15","formatted":"$26.71K","formula":"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_15 / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2040_PROJECTED","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\bar{y}_{treaty,15} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,15}}{Pop_{2040}} = \\frac{\\$238T}{8.9B} = \\$26.7K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,15} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,15} + g_{peace,treaty,15} + g_{cyber,treaty,15} + g_{health,treaty,15})^{15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,15} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 4.4\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 0.807\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} = s_{ratchet} \\times 0.212 = 10\\% \\times 0.212 = 4.4\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,15} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,15}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,15} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,15} = \\frac{f_{cure,15,treaty} - d_{disease}}{-7.22} = \\frac{100\\% - 13\\%}{-7.22} = 0.818\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":26713.475276465226},"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_AVG_INCOME_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[26586.703616707582,43903.172067939595],"conservative":null,"description":"Average income (GDP per capita) at year 20 under the Treaty Trajectory.","displayName":"Treaty Trajectory Average Income at Year 20","formatted":"$34.97K","formula":"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20 / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2045_PROJECTED","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\bar{y}_{treaty,20} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$322T}{9.2B} = \\$35K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} = s_{ratchet} \\times 0.409 = 10\\% \\times 0.409 = 5.8\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease})^{\\frac{1}{H_{health,treaty}}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 8 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":34971.65644108407},"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_CAGR_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.038455101191334495,0.06482758760617294],"conservative":null,"description":"Compound annual growth rate implied by Treaty Trajectory GDP trajectory over 20 years.","displayName":"Treaty Trajectory CAGR (20 Years)","formatted":"5.3%","formula":"(TREATY_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20 ÷ GLOBAL_GDP_2025)^(1/20) - 1","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\ng_{treaty,CAGR} = \\left(\\frac{GDP_{treaty,20}}{GDP_{global}}\\right)^{\\frac{1}{20}} - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} = s_{ratchet} \\times 0.409 = 10\\% \\times 0.409 = 5.8\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease})^{\\frac{1}{H_{health,treaty}}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 8 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.05278650536745255},"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_CUMULATIVE_LIFETIME_INCOME":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/recruitment-and-propaganda-plan.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1113572.9255244583,1815600.998567859],"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative per-capita income over an average remaining lifespan under Treaty Trajectory. Uses implied per-capita CAGR for years 1-20 (derived from known year-0 and year-20 per-capita incomes), then current-trajectory per-capita growth from the year-20 level. Conservative: assumes no further treaty acceleration beyond year 20.","displayName":"Treaty Trajectory Cumulative Lifetime Income (Per Capita)","formatted":"$1.42M","formula":"Phase 1: y0*(1+g_pc,treaty)*((1+g_pc,treaty)^20-1)/g_pc,treaty + Phase 2: y20*(1+g_pc,base)*((1+g_pc,base)^(T-20)-1)/g_pc,base","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nY_{cum,treaty} \\\\\n= \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,treaty})((1+g_{pc,treaty})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,treaty}} \\\\\n+ \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1422786.7536171854},"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_GDP_VS_CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_MULTIPLIER_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1.222729987515642,1.564279433941316],"conservative":null,"description":"Treaty Trajectory GDP at year 15 as a multiple of current trajectory GDP at year 15.","displayName":"Treaty Trajectory vs Current Trajectory GDP Multiplier (Year 15)","formatted":"1.4274620676403007 x","formula":"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_15 / CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_15","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{treaty:base,15} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,15}}{GDP_{base,15}} = \\frac{\\$238T}{\\$167T} = 1.43\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,15} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,15} + g_{peace,treaty,15} + g_{cyber,treaty,15} + g_{health,treaty,15})^{15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,15} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 4.4\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 0.807\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} = s_{ratchet} \\times 0.212 = 10\\% \\times 0.212 = 4.4\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,15} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,15}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,15} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,15} = \\frac{f_{cure,15,treaty} - d_{disease}}{-7.22} = \\frac{100\\% - 13\\%}{-7.22} = 0.818\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,15} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{15}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":1.4274620676403007},"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_GDP_VS_CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_MULTIPLIER_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/recruitment-and-propaganda-plan.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1.2980074146941138,2.143426416991599],"conservative":null,"description":"Treaty Trajectory GDP at year 20 as a multiple of current trajectory GDP at year 20.","displayName":"Treaty Trajectory vs Current Trajectory GDP Multiplier (Year 20)","formatted":"1.7073748599708383 x","formula":"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20 ÷ CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{treaty:base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,20}}{GDP_{base,20}} = \\frac{\\$322T}{\\$188T} = 1.71\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} = s_{ratchet} \\times 0.409 = 10\\% \\times 0.409 = 5.8\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease})^{\\frac{1}{H_{health,treaty}}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 8 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":1.7073748599708383},"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[203650923889733.5,260537449147809.5],"conservative":null,"description":"Projected global GDP at year 15 under the optimistic treaty take-hold path. Compounds baseline growth plus explicit military redirect spillovers, peace dividend recovery, cybercrime drag recovery, and health recovery from disease cures and faster deployment.","displayName":"Treaty Trajectory GDP at Year 15","formatted":"$237.75T","formula":"GLOBAL_GDP_2025 × (1 + GDP_BASELINE_GROWTH_RATE + TREATY_REDIRECT_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_15 + TREATY_PEACE_RECOVERY_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_15 + TREATY_CYBERCRIME_RECOVERY_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_15 + TREATY_HEALTH_RECOVERY_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_15)^15","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nGDP_{treaty,15} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,15} + g_{peace,treaty,15} + g_{cyber,treaty,15} + g_{health,treaty,15})^{15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,15} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 4.4\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 0.807\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} = s_{ratchet} \\times 0.212 = 10\\% \\times 0.212 = 4.4\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,15} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,15}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,15} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,15} = \\frac{f_{cure,15,treaty} - d_{disease}}{-7.22} = \\frac{100\\% - 13\\%}{-7.22} = 0.818\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":237749929960540.5},"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[244597673273709.72,403909183025044.25],"conservative":null,"description":"Projected global GDP at year 20 under the optimistic treaty take-hold path. Compounds baseline growth plus explicit military redirect spillovers, peace dividend recovery, cybercrime drag recovery, and health recovery from lower disease burden.","displayName":"Treaty Trajectory GDP at Year 20","formatted":"$321.74T","formula":"GLOBAL_GDP_2025 × (1 + GDP_BASELINE_GROWTH_RATE + TREATY_REDIRECT_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_20 + TREATY_PEACE_RECOVERY_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_20 + TREATY_CYBERCRIME_RECOVERY_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_20 + TREATY_HEALTH_RECOVERY_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_20)^20","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nGDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} = s_{ratchet} \\times 0.409 = 10\\% \\times 0.409 = 5.8\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease})^{\\frac{1}{H_{health,treaty}}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 8 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":321739239257973.44},"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_LIFETIME_INCOME_GAIN_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/recruitment-and-propaganda-plan.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[221702.82258384544,860929.7648531914],"conservative":null,"description":"Lifetime per-capita income gain from Treaty Trajectory vs current trajectory. Cumulative treaty income minus cumulative earth income over average remaining lifespan. Uses global averages; individual gain scales with starting income.","displayName":"Treaty Trajectory Lifetime Income Gain (Per Capita)","formatted":"$518.88K","formula":"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_CUMULATIVE_LIFETIME_INCOME - CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_CUMULATIVE_LIFETIME_INCOME","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\Delta Y_{lifetime,treaty} = Y_{cum,treaty} - Y_{cum,earth} = \\$1.42M - \\$904K = \\$519K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,treaty} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,treaty})((1+g_{pc,treaty})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,treaty}} + \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$322T}{9.2B} = \\$35K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} = s_{ratchet} \\times 0.409 = 10\\% \\times 0.409 = 5.8\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease})^{\\frac{1}{H_{health,treaty}}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 8 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{remaining} = LE_{global} - Age_{median} = 73.4 - 30.5 = 42.9\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,earth} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":518878.77688228886},"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_LIFETIME_INCOME_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/recruitment-and-propaganda-plan.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1.2449976245924124,1.9232845478387173],"conservative":null,"description":"Ratio of cumulative lifetime income under Treaty Trajectory vs current trajectory. Income-agnostic: applies as a multiplier to any individual's lifetime earnings.","displayName":"Treaty Trajectory Lifetime Income Multiplier","formatted":"1.574039382589129 x","formula":"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_CUMULATIVE_LIFETIME_INCOME / CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_CUMULATIVE_LIFETIME_INCOME","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{lifetime,treaty:earth} = \\frac{Y_{cum,treaty}}{Y_{cum,earth}} = \\frac{\\$1.42M}{\\$904K} = 1.57\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,treaty} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,treaty})((1+g_{pc,treaty})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,treaty}} + \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$322T}{9.2B} = \\$35K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} = s_{ratchet} \\times 0.409 = 10\\% \\times 0.409 = 5.8\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease})^{\\frac{1}{H_{health,treaty}}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 8 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{remaining} = LE_{global} - Age_{median} = 73.4 - 30.5 = 42.9\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,earth} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":1.574039382589129},"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_MEDIAN_AFTER_TAX_INCOME_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3291.811145265844,5410.7653011627235],"conservative":null,"description":"Median after-tax consumable income at year 15 under the Treaty Trajectory. Same construction as the year-20 variant: military share reduced by the ratchet's terminal redirect (the single ratchet knob), same erosion as the status quo (best guess zero) so distributional claims cancel, plus the WHO-anchored health-burden relief channel scaled by the ratchet-schedule cure fraction. Feeds the Prize settlement target.","displayName":"Median After-Tax Consumable Income, Treaty (Year 15)","formatted":"$4.38K","formula":"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_AVG_INCOME_YEAR_15 * (1 - GLOBAL_MILITARY_SHARE_OF_GDP * (1 - TREATY_RATCHET_TERMINAL_SHARE)) * GLOBAL_MEDIAN_TO_MEAN_INCOME_RATIO * (1 - GLOBAL_MEDIAN_SHARE_EROSION_RATE_ANNUAL)^15 * (1 + MEDIAN_HEALTH_BURDEN_RELIEF_SHARE * TREATY_DISEASE_CURE_FRACTION_15YR) * (1 - GLOBAL_EFFECTIVE_TAX_RATE_MEDIAN)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\tilde{m}_{treaty,15} = \\bar{y}_{treaty,15} \\times (1 - s_{mil} \\times (1 - s_{ratchet})) \\times \\rho_{med} \\times (1 - e_{med})^{15} \\times (1 + r_{relief} \\times f_{cure,15,treaty}) \\times (1 - \\tau_{med})\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{treaty,15} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,15}}{Pop_{2040}} = \\frac{\\$238T}{8.9B} = \\$26.7K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,15} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,15} + g_{peace,treaty,15} + g_{cyber,treaty,15} + g_{health,treaty,15})^{15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,15} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 4.4\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 0.807\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} = s_{ratchet} \\times 0.212 = 10\\% \\times 0.212 = 4.4\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,15} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,15}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,15} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,15} = \\frac{f_{cure,15,treaty} - d_{disease}}{-7.22} = \\frac{100\\% - 13\\%}{-7.22} = 0.818\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil} = \\frac{Spending_{mil}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$2.72T}{\\$115T} = 2.37\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\rho_{med} = \\frac{\\tilde{y}_{gallup}}{\\bar{y}_{0}} = \\frac{\\$2.92K}{\\$14.4K} = 0.203\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":4381.418260557408},"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_MEDIAN_AFTER_TAX_INCOME_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3967.1075840750073,7767.546577547389],"conservative":null,"description":"Median after-tax consumable income at year 20 under the Treaty Trajectory. Mean income from the treaty GDP trajectory; military share reduced by the ratchet's terminal redirect (the single ratchet knob); the same share erosion as the status quo (best guess zero) so distributional claims cancel out of the multiplier; plus the one pro-median channel: cures return out-of-pocket health costs and sick wages to the people who bear them (WHO-anchored relief share scaled by the ratchet-schedule cure fraction).","displayName":"Median After-Tax Consumable Income, Treaty (Year 20)","formatted":"$5.74K","formula":"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_AVG_INCOME_YEAR_20 * (1 - GLOBAL_MILITARY_SHARE_OF_GDP * (1 - TREATY_RATCHET_TERMINAL_SHARE)) * GLOBAL_MEDIAN_TO_MEAN_INCOME_RATIO * (1 - GLOBAL_MEDIAN_SHARE_EROSION_RATE_ANNUAL)^20 * (1 + MEDIAN_HEALTH_BURDEN_RELIEF_SHARE * TREATY_DISEASE_CURE_FRACTION_20YR) * (1 - GLOBAL_EFFECTIVE_TAX_RATE_MEDIAN)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\tilde{m}_{treaty,20} = \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} \\times (1 - s_{mil} \\times (1 - s_{ratchet})) \\times \\rho_{med} \\times (1 - e_{med})^{20} \\times (1 + r_{relief} \\times f_{cure,20,treaty}) \\times (1 - \\tau_{med})\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$322T}{9.2B} = \\$35K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} = s_{ratchet} \\times 0.409 = 10\\% \\times 0.409 = 5.8\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease})^{\\frac{1}{H_{health,treaty}}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 8 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil} = \\frac{Spending_{mil}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$2.72T}{\\$115T} = 2.37\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\rho_{med} = \\frac{\\tilde{y}_{gallup}}{\\bar{y}_{0}} = \\frac{\\$2.92K}{\\$14.4K} = 0.203\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":5735.886197775944},"TREATY_VS_BED_NETS_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[25003.839138854804,111064.89950887734],"conservative":null,"description":"How many times more cost-effective than bed nets (using bed net cost per DALY midpoint estimate)","displayName":"Cost-Effectiveness vs Bed Nets Multiplier","formatted":"50,306.687 x","formula":"BED_NETS_COST_PER_DALY ÷ TREATY_COST_PER_DALY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{treaty:nets} = \\frac{Cost_{nets}}{Cost_{treaty,DALY}} = \\frac{\\$89}{\\$0.00177} = 50{,}300\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{treaty,DALY} = \\frac{Cost_{campaign}}{DALYs_{max}} = \\frac{\\$1B}{565B} = \\$0.00177\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{campaign} = Budget_{viral,base} + Budget_{lobby,treaty} + Budget_{reserve} = \\$250M + \\$650M + \\$100M = \\$1B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":50306.6869282389},"TREATY_VS_CURRENT_MEDIAN_INCOME_MULTIPLIER_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1.4168752504356648,2.385980475889108],"conservative":null,"description":"Median after-tax income at year 20: Treaty vs status quo. Larger than the GDP multiplier for two auditable reasons: the treaty cuts the military deduction by the ratchet's terminal redirect while the status-quo military share drifts up on its measured trend, and the WHO-anchored health-burden relief channel applies only on the treaty branch. Share erosion is identical in both branches and cancels out of this ratio by construction.","displayName":"Treaty vs Status Quo Median Income Multiplier (Year 20)","formatted":"1.8914164202745185 x","formula":"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_MEDIAN_AFTER_TAX_INCOME_YEAR_20 / CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_MEDIAN_AFTER_TAX_INCOME_YEAR_20","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{med,treaty:base} = \\frac{\\tilde{m}_{treaty,20}}{\\tilde{m}_{base,20}} = \\frac{\\$5.74K}{\\$3.03K} = 1.89\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\tilde{m}_{treaty,20} = \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} \\times (1 - s_{mil} \\times (1 - s_{ratchet})) \\times \\rho_{med} \\times (1 - e_{med})^{20} \\times (1 + r_{relief} \\times f_{cure,20,treaty}) \\times (1 - \\tau_{med})\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$322T}{9.2B} = \\$35K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} = s_{ratchet} \\times 0.409 = 10\\% \\times 0.409 = 5.8\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease})^{\\frac{1}{H_{health,treaty}}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 8 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil} = \\frac{Spending_{mil}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$2.72T}{\\$115T} = 2.37\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\rho_{med} = \\frac{\\tilde{y}_{gallup}}{\\bar{y}_{0}} = \\frac{\\$2.92K}{\\$14.4K} = 0.203\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\tilde{m}_{base,20} = \\bar{y}_{base,20} \\times (1 - s_{mil} \\times \\left(\\frac{1+g_{mil,10yr}}{1+g_{base}}\\right)^{20}) \\times \\rho_{med} \\times (1 - e_{med})^{20} \\times (1 - \\tau_{med})\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":1.8914164202745185},"TREATY_VS_DIRECT_FUNDING_LEVERAGE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[149.21434540247873,830.4175771781782],"conservative":null,"description":"How many times more cost-effective the treaty campaign is vs direct pragmatic trial funding. Treaty campaign unlocks government funding at scale, avoiding need for philanthropists/NIH to directly commit equivalent amounts. Both approaches achieve same DALY timeline shift benefit. Treaty spreads cost across governments while building sustainable public funding infrastructure.","displayName":"Treaty Campaign Leverage vs Direct Funding","formatted":"475.6594654774342 x","formula":"DIRECT_PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_FUNDING_COST_PER_DALY ÷ TREATY_COST_PER_DALY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nLeverage_{treaty} = \\frac{Cost_{direct,DALY}}{Cost_{treaty,DALY}} = \\frac{\\$0.842}{\\$0.00177} = 476\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{direct,DALY} = \\frac{NPV_{direct}}{DALYs_{max}} = \\frac{\\$476B}{565B} = \\$0.842\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } NPV_{direct} = \\frac{T_{queue,trial}}{Funding_{trial,ref} \\times r_{discount}} = \\frac{36}{\\$21.8B \\times 3\\%} = \\$476B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{treaty,DALY} = \\frac{Cost_{campaign}}{DALYs_{max}} = \\frac{\\$1B}{565B} = \\$0.00177\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{campaign} = Budget_{viral,base} + Budget_{lobby,treaty} + Budget_{reserve} = \\$250M + \\$650M + \\$100M = \\$1B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":475.6594654774342},"TRIAL_CAPACITY_CUMULATIVE_YEARS_20YR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[98.49232721844535,1015.178239287693],"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative trial-capacity-equivalent years over 20-year period","displayName":"Cumulative Trial Capacity Years Over 20 Years","formatted":"246.5582686533341 years","formula":"PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER × 20 YEARS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCapacity_{20yr} = k_{capacity} \\times 20 = 12.3 \\times 20 = 247\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":246.5582686533341},"TYPE_II_ERROR_COST_RATIO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[1810.8336154119809,5734.443691815757],"conservative":null,"description":"Ratio of Type II error cost to Type I error benefit (harm from delay vs. harm prevented)","displayName":"Ratio of Type II Error Cost to Type I Error Benefit","formatted":"3,388.985 ratio","formula":"TYPE_II_COST ÷ TYPE_I_BENEFIT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nRatio_{TypeII} = \\frac{DALYs_{lag}}{DALY_{TypeI}} = \\frac{8.77B}{2.59M} = 3{,}390\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{lag} = YLL_{lag} + YLD_{lag} = 7.9B + 873M = 8.77B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLL_{lag} = \\text{DEATHS\\_TOTAL} \\times (REMAINING_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_AT_60 - (\\text{MEAN\\_AGE\\_OF\\_DEATH} - 60))\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag} = T_{lag} \\times Deaths_{disease,daily} \\times 338 = 8.2 \\times 150{,}000 \\times 338 = 416M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLD_{lag} = Deaths_{lag} \\times T_{suffering} \\times DW_{chronic} = 416M \\times 6 \\times 0.35 = 873M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALY_{TypeI} = DALY_{thal} \\times 62 = 41{,}800 \\times 62 = 2.59M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALY_{thal} = YLD_{thal} + YLL_{thal} = 13{,}000 + 28{,}800 = 41{,}800\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLD_{thal} = DW_{thal} \\times N_{thal,survive} \\times LE_{thal} = 0.4 \\times 540 \\times 60 = 13{,}000\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{thal,survive} = N_{thal,US,prevent} \\times (1 - Rate_{thal,mort}) = 900 \\times (1 - 40\\%) = 540\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{thal,US,prevent} = N_{thal,global} \\times Pct_{US,1960} = 15{,}000 \\times 6\\% = 900\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLL_{thal} = Deaths_{thal} \\times 80 = 360 \\times 80 = 28{,}800\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{thal} = Rate_{thal,mort} \\times N_{thal,US,prevent} = 40\\% \\times 900 = 360\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":3388.9849281995425},"TYPE_I_ERROR_BENEFIT_DALYS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[1883479.0423438617,3376981.896254324],"conservative":null,"description":"Maximum DALYs saved by FDA preventing unsafe drugs over 62-year period 1962-2024 (extreme overestimate: one Thalidomide-scale event per year)","displayName":"Maximum DALYs Saved by FDA Preventing Unsafe Drugs (1962-2024)","formatted":"2.59M DALYs","formula":"THALIDOMIDE_DALYS_PER_EVENT × 62 years","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDALY_{TypeI} = DALY_{thal} \\times 62 = 41{,}800 \\times 62 = 2.59M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALY_{thal} = YLD_{thal} + YLL_{thal} = 13{,}000 + 28{,}800 = 41{,}800\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLD_{thal} = DW_{thal} \\times N_{thal,survive} \\times LE_{thal} = 0.4 \\times 540 \\times 60 = 13{,}000\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{thal,survive} = N_{thal,US,prevent} \\times (1 - Rate_{thal,mort}) = 900 \\times (1 - 40\\%) = 540\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{thal,US,prevent} = N_{thal,global} \\times Pct_{US,1960} = 15{,}000 \\times 6\\% = 900\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLL_{thal} = Deaths_{thal} \\times 80 = 360 \\times 80 = 28{,}800\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{thal} = Rate_{thal,mort} \\times N_{thal,US,prevent} = 40\\% \\times 900 = 360\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"DALYs","value":2589120},"UNEXPLORED_RATIO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/nih-fails-2-institute-health.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.9943109439965041,0.9980300991404861],"conservative":null,"description":"Fraction of possible drug-disease space that remains unexplored (>99%)","displayName":"Unexplored Therapeutic Frontier","formatted":"99.7%","formula":"1 - EXPLORATION_RATIO","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nRatio_{unexplored} = 1 - \\frac{N_{tested}}{N_{combos}} = 1 - \\frac{32{,}500}{9.5M} = 99.7\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{combos} = N_{safe} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 9{,}500 \\times 1{,}000 = 9.5M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percentage","value":0.996578947368421},"UNIVERSAL_SECURITY_ADMIN_ANNUAL_OPEX":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/universal-security-administration.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[33502610.72389832,250250471.63982713],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual operating cost of the Universal Security Administration: population times the all-in comparator-anchored cost per citizen. Uncertainty propagates from the component distributions via Monte Carlo.","displayName":"Universal Security Administration Annual Operating Cost","formatted":"$100.50M","formula":"POPULATION × ALL_IN_COST_PER_CITIZEN","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{opex,ann} \\\\\n= Pop_{US} \\times Cost_{ann} \\\\\n= 335M \\times \\$0.3 \\\\\n= \\$100M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":100500000},"US_1939_MILITARY_SPENDING_PCT_LOWER_THAN_CURRENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"How much lower pre-WW2 (1939) US military spending was than today's peacetime budget, in constant 2024 dollars","displayName":"Pre-WW2 US Military Spending % Lower than Current","formatted":"96.7%","formula":"1 - (US_MILITARY_SPENDING_1939 / US_MILITARY_SPENDING_2024)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nPct_{1939<2024} \\\\\n= 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1939}}{Spending_{US,2024}} \\\\\n= 1 - \\frac{\\$29B}{\\$886B} \\\\\n= 96.7\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.9672686230248307},"US_CONGRESS_FULL_ADVOCACY_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/cost-of-change-analysis.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Upper-bound advocacy cost to match career incentives for all 535 members of Congress","displayName":"US Congress Full Advocacy Cost","formatted":"$5.35B","formula":"CONGRESS_MEMBERS x POST_OFFICE_VALUE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{US,congress} \\\\\n= N_{congress} \\times V_{post-office} \\\\\n= 535 \\times \\$10M \\\\\n= \\$5.35B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":5350000000},"US_DEFENSE_FIRST_PRINCIPLES_CUT_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/eisenhower-curve.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[0.757175929247832,0.822107712881769],"conservative":null,"description":"Implied cut from current US military spending (~$886B) to the first-principles homeland-defense optimum (~$184B): ~79%. For comparison, the US cut military spending 87.6% in two years after WWII.","displayName":"First-Principles Defense Cut (%)","formatted":"79.2%","formula":"1 - (US_DEFENSE_FIRST_PRINCIPLES_OPTIMAL / US_MILITARY_SPENDING_2024_ANNUAL)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCut_{FP} = 1 - \\frac{D_{optimal}}{Spending_{US,2024}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$184B}{\\$886B} = 79.2\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{optimal} = D_{nuclear} + D_{air} + D_{cg} + D_{guard} + D_{cyber} + D_{hedge} = \\$30B + \\$35B + \\$14B + \\$30B + \\$15B + \\$60B = \\$184B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.7923250564334086},"US_DEFENSE_FIRST_PRINCIPLES_OPTIMAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/eisenhower-curve.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[157612566386.75262,215142126686.42087],"conservative":null,"description":"First-principles optimal US homeland-defense budget: the bottom-up sum of what defending the United States actually requires at efficient prices. Nuclear second strike $30B + homeland air/missile defense $35B + Coast Guard $14B + National Guard $30B + cyber defense $15B + mobilization hedge $60B = ~$184B. Honest range ~$130-260B. Compare: current ~$886B. Restraint-school proposals (Posen, Cato) and peer benchmarks land higher (~$450-675B) because they cost reduced hegemony and allied/peer deterrence, not homeland defense.","displayName":"First-Principles Optimal US Defense Budget","formatted":"$184.00B","formula":"Nuclear + HomelandAirMissile + CoastGuard + NationalGuard + Cyber + MobilizationHedge","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{optimal} \\\\\n= D_{nuclear} + D_{air} + D_{cg} + D_{guard} + D_{cyber} \\\\\n+ D_{hedge} \\\\\n= \\$30B + \\$35B + \\$14B + \\$30B + \\$15B + \\$60B \\\\\n= \\$184B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":184000000000},"US_FEDERAL_SPENDING_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/unrepresentative-democracy.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[20052.438664005276,20553.342948960668],"conservative":null,"description":"US federal spending per capita. $6.8T total federal spending divided by 335M population.","displayName":"US Federal Spending per Capita","formatted":"20,298.507 USD/person","formula":"US_FEDERAL_SPENDING_2024 / US_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSpend_{fed,pc} \\\\\n= \\frac{Spending_{US,fed}}{Pop_{US}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$6.8T}{335M} \\\\\n= \\$20.3K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":20298.507462686568},"US_FED_DISCRETIONARY_EFFICIENCY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[0.3105714452719395,0.39460627942629456],"conservative":null,"description":"US federal discretionary spending efficiency. What fraction of discretionary spending avoids direct waste (Cat 1 only: military overspend, corporate welfare, drug war, fossil/ag subsidies). ~41%. Some Cat 1 items (farm subsidies, tax expenditures) are technically mandatory/off-budget but are fungible policy choices.","displayName":"US Discretionary Efficiency","formatted":"35.4%","formula":"1 - (CAT1 / DISCRETIONARY)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nE_{US,disc} = 1 - \\frac{W_{cat1}}{Spending_{US,disc}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$1.1T}{\\$1.7T} = 35.4\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{cat1} = W_{military} + W_{corporate} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$702B + \\$181B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$1.1T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{military} = Spending_{US,2024} - D_{optimal} = \\$886B - \\$184B = \\$702B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{optimal} = D_{nuclear} + D_{air} + D_{cg} + D_{guard} + D_{cyber} + D_{hedge} = \\$30B + \\$35B + \\$14B + \\$30B + \\$15B + \\$60B = \\$184B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.35411764705882354},"US_FED_DISCRETIONARY_WASTE_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[0.6053937205737054,0.6894285547280605],"conservative":null,"description":"Category 1 direct spending waste as percentage of federal discretionary spending. ~$1.01T Cat 1 waste / $1.7T discretionary = ~59%. Uses discretionary spending as denominator because Cat 1 items (military overspend, corporate welfare, drug war, fossil/ag subsidies) are fungible policy choices within discretionary budget.","displayName":"Discretionary Waste (%)","formatted":"64.6%","formula":"US_GOV_WASTE_CATEGORY_1_DIRECT_SPENDING / US_FED_DISCRETIONARY_SPENDING_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nW_{US,\\%disc} = \\frac{W_{cat1}}{Spending_{US,disc}} = \\frac{\\$1.1T}{\\$1.7T} = 64.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{cat1} = W_{military} + W_{corporate} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$702B + \\$181B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$1.1T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{military} = Spending_{US,2024} - D_{optimal} = \\$886B - \\$184B = \\$702B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{optimal} = D_{nuclear} + D_{air} + D_{cg} + D_{guard} + D_{cyber} + D_{hedge} = \\$30B + \\$35B + \\$14B + \\$30B + \\$15B + \\$60B = \\$184B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.6458823529411765},"US_GOVERNANCE_EFFICIENCY_GDP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[0.8050423286748402,0.8474744297933989],"conservative":null,"description":"Total US governance efficiency: all 4 waste categories as share of GDP. 1 - ($4.9T / $28.78T) = ~83%. This broader metric captures direct spending waste, compliance burden, policy-induced GDP loss, and system inefficiency relative to total economic output.","displayName":"US Governance Efficiency (GDP)","formatted":"82.7%","formula":"1 - (US_GOV_WASTE_TOTAL / US_GDP)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nE_{US,GDP} = 1 - \\frac{W_{total,US}}{GDP_{US}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$4.98T}{\\$28.8T} = 82.7\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{total,US} = W_{raw,US} \\times \\delta_{overlap} = \\$4.98T \\times 1 = \\$4.98T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{raw,US} = W_{health} + W_{housing} + W_{military} + W_{regulatory} + W_{tax} + W_{corporate} + W_{tariffs} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$1.2T + \\$1.4T + \\$702B + \\$580B + \\$546B + \\$181B + \\$160B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$4.98T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{military} = Spending_{US,2024} - D_{optimal} = \\$886B - \\$184B = \\$702B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{optimal} = D_{nuclear} + D_{air} + D_{cg} + D_{guard} + D_{cyber} + D_{hedge} = \\$30B + \\$35B + \\$14B + \\$30B + \\$15B + \\$60B = \\$184B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.8268241834607366},"US_GOV_WASTE_CATEGORY_1_DIRECT_SPENDING":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[1029169324975.2993,1172028543037.703],"conservative":null,"description":"Category 1: Direct Federal Spending Waste. Actual federal budget allocations that could be redirected. Includes military overspend ($615B), corporate welfare ($181B), drug war ($90B), fossil fuel subsidies ($50B), and agricultural subsidies ($75B). Total: ~$1.01T annually. Solution: Budget reallocation.","displayName":"Category 1: Direct Spending Waste","formatted":"$1.10T","formula":"Military + Corporate + Drug War + Fossil + Agriculture","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nW_{cat1} = W_{military} + W_{corporate} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$702B + \\$181B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$1.1T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{military} = Spending_{US,2024} - D_{optimal} = \\$886B - \\$184B = \\$702B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{optimal} = D_{nuclear} + D_{air} + D_{cg} + D_{guard} + D_{cyber} + D_{hedge} = \\$30B + \\$35B + \\$14B + \\$30B + \\$15B + \\$60B = \\$184B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1098000000000},"US_GOV_WASTE_CATEGORY_2_COMPLIANCE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[855974290256.7675,1488932657560.1143],"conservative":null,"description":"Category 2: Compliance Burden on Private Sector. Private sector resources consumed by government-imposed compliance requirements. Includes tax compliance ($546B) and regulatory red tape ($580B). Total: ~$1.13T annually. Solution: Simplification (tax code reform, regulatory streamlining).","displayName":"Category 2: Compliance Burden","formatted":"$1.13T","formula":"Tax Compliance + Regulatory Red Tape","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nW_{cat2} \\\\\n= W_{tax} + W_{regulatory} \\\\\n= \\$546B + \\$580B \\\\\n= \\$1.13T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1126000000000},"US_GOV_WASTE_CATEGORY_3_GDP_LOSS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[1114251999807.2551,2095723110542.4907],"conservative":null,"description":"Category 3: Policy-Induced GDP Loss. Economic output foregone due to policy constraints on markets. Includes housing/zoning restrictions ($1.4T) and tariffs ($160B). Total: ~$1.56T annually. Solution: Policy reform (zoning liberalization, trade policy).","displayName":"Category 3: GDP Loss","formatted":"$1.56T","formula":"Housing/Zoning + Tariffs","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nW_{cat3} \\\\\n= W_{housing} + W_{tariffs} \\\\\n= \\$1.4T + \\$160B \\\\\n= \\$1.56T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1560000000000},"US_GOV_WASTE_CATEGORY_4_SYSTEM":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1000000000000,1441436369325.5142],"conservative":null,"description":"Category 4: Total System Inefficiency. Fundamental system design failures requiring structural redesign. Currently only healthcare system inefficiency ($1.2T). Solution: System redesign using competitive market models (Singapore's catastrophic coverage + HSAs, Switzerland's regulated competition).","displayName":"Category 4: System Inefficiency","formatted":"$1.20T","formula":"Healthcare Inefficiency","latex":"W_{cat4} = W_{health} = \\$1.2T = \\$1.2T","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1200000000000},"US_GOV_WASTE_MILITARY_OVERSPEND":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[670857873313.5792,728387433613.2473],"conservative":null,"description":"US military spending above the first-principles homeland-defense optimum. Current US military spending (~$886B) supports global power projection (~750 overseas bases). A bottom-up, threat-by-threat homeland-defense budget is ~$184B (nuclear second strike $30B, homeland air/missile defense $35B, Coast Guard $14B, National Guard $30B, cyber defense $15B, mobilization hedge $60B). Delta = $886B - $184B = ~$702B 'Hegemony Tax'. [CATEGORY 1: Direct Spending]","displayName":"Military Overspend","formatted":"$702.00B","formula":"US_MILITARY_SPENDING_2024_ANNUAL - US_DEFENSE_FIRST_PRINCIPLES_OPTIMAL","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nW_{military} = Spending_{US,2024} - D_{optimal} = \\$886B - \\$184B = \\$702B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{optimal} = D_{nuclear} + D_{air} + D_{cg} + D_{guard} + D_{cyber} + D_{hedge} = \\$30B + \\$35B + \\$14B + \\$30B + \\$15B + \\$60B = \\$184B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":702000000000},"US_GOV_WASTE_PCT_GDP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/optimocracy-paper.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[0.15252557020660104,0.19495767132515984],"conservative":null,"description":"US government waste as percentage of GDP. ~$4.90T waste / $28.78T GDP = ~17%. This represents the 'dysfunction tax' that American citizens effectively pay through inefficient governance.","displayName":"US Waste (% GDP)","formatted":"17.3%","formula":"US_GOV_WASTE_TOTAL / US_GDP","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nW_{US,\\%GDP} = \\frac{W_{total,US}}{GDP_{US}} = \\frac{\\$4.98T}{\\$28.8T} = 17.3\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{total,US} = W_{raw,US} \\times \\delta_{overlap} = \\$4.98T \\times 1 = \\$4.98T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{raw,US} = W_{health} + W_{housing} + W_{military} + W_{regulatory} + W_{tax} + W_{corporate} + W_{tariffs} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$1.2T + \\$1.4T + \\$702B + \\$580B + \\$546B + \\$181B + \\$160B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$4.98T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{military} = Spending_{US,2024} - D_{optimal} = \\$886B - \\$184B = \\$702B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{optimal} = D_{nuclear} + D_{air} + D_{cg} + D_{guard} + D_{cyber} + D_{hedge} = \\$30B + \\$35B + \\$14B + \\$30B + \\$15B + \\$60B = \\$184B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.17317581653926337},"US_GOV_WASTE_QALY_EQUIVALENTS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[43896859.10545978,56108817.807381],"conservative":null,"description":"US government waste expressed as QALY equivalents. This is an economic equivalent, NOT epidemiological health outcomes. Dividing by QALY threshold yields a measure of foregone welfare.","displayName":"US Waste (QALY Equivalents)","formatted":"49.84M QALYs","formula":"US_GOV_WASTE_TOTAL / QALY_THRESHOLD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nW_{US,QALY} = \\frac{W_{total,US}}{QALY_{threshold}} = \\frac{\\$4.98T}{\\$100K} = 49.8M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{total,US} = W_{raw,US} \\times \\delta_{overlap} = \\$4.98T \\times 1 = \\$4.98T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{raw,US} = W_{health} + W_{housing} + W_{military} + W_{regulatory} + W_{tax} + W_{corporate} + W_{tariffs} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$1.2T + \\$1.4T + \\$702B + \\$580B + \\$546B + \\$181B + \\$160B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$4.98T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{military} = Spending_{US,2024} - D_{optimal} = \\$886B - \\$184B = \\$702B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{optimal} = D_{nuclear} + D_{air} + D_{cg} + D_{guard} + D_{cyber} + D_{hedge} = \\$30B + \\$35B + \\$14B + \\$30B + \\$15B + \\$60B = \\$184B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"QALYs","value":49840000},"US_GOV_WASTE_RAW_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[4389685910545.978,5610881780738.1],"conservative":null,"description":"Raw sum of US government waste components before overlap discount: healthcare ($1.2T) + housing ($1.4T) + military ($615B) + regulatory ($580B) + tax ($546B) + corporate ($181B) + tariffs ($160B) + drug war ($90B) + fossil fuel ($50B) + agriculture ($75B) = ~$4.9T raw.","displayName":"US Gov Waste (Raw Total)","formatted":"$4.98T","formula":"SUM(all 10 components)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nW_{raw,US} = W_{health} + W_{housing} + W_{military} + W_{regulatory} + W_{tax} + W_{corporate} + W_{tariffs} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$1.2T + \\$1.4T + \\$702B + \\$580B + \\$546B + \\$181B + \\$160B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$4.98T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{military} = Spending_{US,2024} - D_{optimal} = \\$886B - \\$184B = \\$702B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{optimal} = D_{nuclear} + D_{air} + D_{cg} + D_{guard} + D_{cyber} + D_{hedge} = \\$30B + \\$35B + \\$14B + \\$30B + \\$15B + \\$60B = \\$184B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":4984000000000},"US_GOV_WASTE_RECOVERABLE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[2194842955272.989,2805440890369.05],"conservative":null,"description":"Recoverable capital if US improved to OECD median efficiency. Current US efficiency ~38-48%; OECD median ~75-85%. Closing to ~80% would recover approximately half the gap.","displayName":"Recoverable Capital","formatted":"$2.49T","formula":"US_GOV_WASTE_TOTAL x 0.50","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nW_{US,recoverable} = W_{total,US} \\times 0.5 = \\$4.98T \\times 0.5 = \\$2.49T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{total,US} = W_{raw,US} \\times \\delta_{overlap} = \\$4.98T \\times 1 = \\$4.98T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{raw,US} = W_{health} + W_{housing} + W_{military} + W_{regulatory} + W_{tax} + W_{corporate} + W_{tariffs} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$1.2T + \\$1.4T + \\$702B + \\$580B + \\$546B + \\$181B + \\$160B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$4.98T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{military} = Spending_{US,2024} - D_{optimal} = \\$886B - \\$184B = \\$702B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{optimal} = D_{nuclear} + D_{air} + D_{cg} + D_{guard} + D_{cyber} + D_{hedge} = \\$30B + \\$35B + \\$14B + \\$30B + \\$15B + \\$60B = \\$184B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":2492000000000},"US_GOV_WASTE_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[4389685910545.978,5610881780738.1],"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual US government waste (additive sum of components). Consolidates healthcare ($1.2T), housing ($1.4T), military ($615B), regulatory ($580B), tax ($546B), corporate ($181B), tariffs ($160B), drug war ($90B), fossil fuel ($50B), agriculture ($75B). Categories treated as additive; any overlap offset by excluded categories (state/local inefficiency, implicit subsidies, behavioral effects). ~$4.9T annually.","displayName":"US Government Waste (Total)","formatted":"$4.98T","formula":"SUM(all components)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nW_{total,US} = W_{raw,US} \\times \\delta_{overlap} = \\$4.98T \\times 1 = \\$4.98T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{raw,US} = W_{health} + W_{housing} + W_{military} + W_{regulatory} + W_{tax} + W_{corporate} + W_{tariffs} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$1.2T + \\$1.4T + \\$702B + \\$580B + \\$546B + \\$181B + \\$160B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$4.98T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{military} = Spending_{US,2024} - D_{optimal} = \\$886B - \\$184B = \\$702B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{optimal} = D_{nuclear} + D_{air} + D_{cg} + D_{guard} + D_{cyber} + D_{hedge} = \\$30B + \\$35B + \\$14B + \\$30B + \\$15B + \\$60B = \\$184B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":4984000000000},"US_GOV_WASTE_VSL_EQUIVALENTS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[320415.0299668597,409553.4146524161],"conservative":null,"description":"US government waste expressed as VSL equivalents. This is an economic equivalent, NOT literal deaths. Dividing the efficiency gap by VSL yields a measure of foregone welfare.","displayName":"US Waste (VSL Equivalents)","formatted":"363,795.62 people","formula":"US_GOV_WASTE_TOTAL / DOT_VSL","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nW_{US,VSL} = \\frac{W_{total,US}}{VSL_{DOT}} = \\frac{\\$4.98T}{\\$13.7M} = 364{,}000\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{total,US} = W_{raw,US} \\times \\delta_{overlap} = \\$4.98T \\times 1 = \\$4.98T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{raw,US} = W_{health} + W_{housing} + W_{military} + W_{regulatory} + W_{tax} + W_{corporate} + W_{tariffs} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$1.2T + \\$1.4T + \\$702B + \\$580B + \\$546B + \\$181B + \\$160B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$4.98T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{military} = Spending_{US,2024} - D_{optimal} = \\$886B - \\$184B = \\$702B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{optimal} = D_{nuclear} + D_{air} + D_{cg} + D_{guard} + D_{cyber} + D_{hedge} = \\$30B + \\$35B + \\$14B + \\$30B + \\$15B + \\$60B = \\$184B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"people","value":363795.6204379562},"US_GOV_WASTE_VS_TREATY_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[161.38551141713154,206.28241840948897],"conservative":null,"description":"How many times the US government efficiency gap could fund the 1% Treaty. The efficiency gap represents capital that could fund transformative health research many times over.","displayName":"Efficiency Gap / Treaty Funding","formatted":"183.23529411764707 ratio","formula":"US_GOV_WASTE_TOTAL / TREATY_ANNUAL_FUNDING","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{waste:treaty} = \\frac{W_{total,US}}{Funding_{treaty}} = \\frac{\\$4.98T}{\\$27.2B} = 183\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{total,US} = W_{raw,US} \\times \\delta_{overlap} = \\$4.98T \\times 1 = \\$4.98T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{raw,US} = W_{health} + W_{housing} + W_{military} + W_{regulatory} + W_{tax} + W_{corporate} + W_{tariffs} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$1.2T + \\$1.4T + \\$702B + \\$580B + \\$546B + \\$181B + \\$160B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$4.98T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{military} = Spending_{US,2024} - D_{optimal} = \\$886B - \\$184B = \\$702B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{optimal} = D_{nuclear} + D_{air} + D_{cg} + D_{guard} + D_{cyber} + D_{hedge} = \\$30B + \\$35B + \\$14B + \\$30B + \\$15B + \\$60B = \\$184B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":183.23529411764707},"US_MAJOR_DISEASES_TOTAL_ANNUAL_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-disease.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1177394930253.4158,1329089231537.2205],"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual US cost of major diseases (diabetes, Alzheimer's, heart disease, cancer)","displayName":"US Major Diseases Total Annual Cost","formatted":"$1.25T","formula":"DIABETES + ALZHEIMERS + HEART + CANCER","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{disease,US} \\\\\n= Cost_{ALZ,US} + Cost_{cancer,US} + Cost_{diabetes,US} \\\\\n+ Cost_{heart,US} \\\\\n= \\$355B + \\$208B + \\$327B + \\$363B \\\\\n= \\$1.25T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1253000000000},"US_MILITARY_OVERSPEND_PATIENTS_FUNDABLE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/cost-benefit-of-hegemony.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[297936110.2800162,3041858754.455645],"conservative":null,"description":"Trial participants the annual US military overspend (~$702B) could fund at the empirical pragmatic-trial cost (~$929/patient): ~756M patients/year. Patient-based, the direct parallel of DFDA_PATIENTS_FUNDABLE_ANNUALLY (the treaty's ~23.4M).","displayName":"Patients Fundable by Military Overspend (Pragmatic Trials)","formatted":"755.65M patients/year","formula":"US_GOV_WASTE_MILITARY_OVERSPEND / DFDA_PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_COST_PER_PATIENT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{fundable,overspend} = \\frac{W_{military}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$702B}{\\$929} = 756M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{military} = Spending_{US,2024} - D_{optimal} = \\$886B - \\$184B = \\$702B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{optimal} = D_{nuclear} + D_{air} + D_{cg} + D_{guard} + D_{cyber} + D_{hedge} = \\$30B + \\$35B + \\$14B + \\$30B + \\$15B + \\$60B = \\$184B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"patients/year","value":755651237.8902045},"US_MILITARY_OVERSPEND_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/cost-benefit-of-hegemony.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[158.36645234934966,1634.301660236891],"conservative":null,"description":"Patients the overspend could fund in pragmatic trials (~756M/year at ~$929 each) relative to the ~1.9M people currently in trials: ~398x. Identical methodology to the treaty's DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER (12.3x), scaled to the overspend. The current 1.9M is capped by the ~$41k cost of a traditional trial, NOT by a shortage of patients: aging is a universal trial population and billions have suboptimally-treated chronic disease. The binding constraint is building decentralized trial infrastructure, not patient supply.","displayName":"Military Overspend Pragmatic Trial Capacity Multiplier","formatted":"397.7111778369498 x","formula":"US_MILITARY_OVERSPEND_PATIENTS_FUNDABLE / CURRENT_TRIAL_SLOTS_AVAILABLE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{capacity,overspend} = \\frac{N_{fundable,overspend}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{756M}{1.9M} = 398\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,overspend} = \\frac{W_{military}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$702B}{\\$929} = 756M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{military} = Spending_{US,2024} - D_{optimal} = \\$886B - \\$184B = \\$702B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{optimal} = D_{nuclear} + D_{air} + D_{cg} + D_{guard} + D_{cyber} + D_{hedge} = \\$30B + \\$35B + \\$14B + \\$30B + \\$15B + \\$60B = \\$184B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":397.7111778369498},"US_MILITARY_SPENDING_CURRENT_VS_PREWAR_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Ratio of current US military spending to pre-WW2 baseline in constant dollars ($886B / $29B)","displayName":"Current US Military Spending vs Pre-WW2 Baseline (Multiplier)","formatted":"30.551724137931036 x","formula":"US_MILITARY_SPENDING_2024 / US_MILITARY_SPENDING_1939","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nRatio_{US,2024:1939} \\\\\n= \\frac{Spending_{US,2024}}{Spending_{US,1939}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$886B}{\\$29B} \\\\\n= 30.6\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":30.551724137931036},"US_POLITICAL_REFORM_INVESTMENT_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/cost-of-change-analysis.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[17493915363.950916,36268768515.951706],"conservative":null,"description":"Total upper-bound investment for US political reform: (campaign spending + 2 years lobbying) × effort multiplier + Congress career advocacy. Represents cost to achieve democratic parity with incumbent interests.","displayName":"US Political Reform Investment (Total)","formatted":"$25.51B","formula":"(CAMPAIGN + LOBBYING×2) × EFFORT_MULTIPLIER + CONGRESS_CAREER","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{US,total} \\\\\n= (Cost_{campaign} \\\\\n+ Cost_{lobby} \\times 2) \\times \\mu_{effort} + Cost_{career}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":25510000000},"US_SENATE_TREATY_ADVOCACY_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Upper-bound advocacy cost to match career incentives for 67 senators (treaty ratification threshold)","displayName":"US Senate Treaty Advocacy Cost","formatted":"$670.00M","formula":"SENATORS_FOR_TREATY x POST_OFFICE_VALUE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{US,senate} \\\\\n= N_{senators,treaty} \\times V_{post-office} \\\\\n= 67 \\times \\$10M \\\\\n= \\$670M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":670000000},"US_VOTE_EXPECTED_VALUE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/unrepresentative-democracy.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.0003342073110667546,0.00034255571581601115],"conservative":null,"description":"Expected monetary value of a single vote in a US presidential election. Calculated as the probability of being decisive (1 in 60M) times federal spending per capita (~$20,300). Represents the expected influence over government resource allocation from casting one vote.","displayName":"Expected Value of a Vote (US)","formatted":"$0","formula":"US_VOTE_DECISIVE_PROBABILITY x US_FEDERAL_SPENDING_PER_CAPITA","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nEV_{vote} = P_{decisive} \\times Spend_{fed,pc} = 1\\text{ in }60M \\times \\$20.3K = \\$0.000338\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spend_{fed,pc} = \\frac{Spending_{US,fed}}{Pop_{US}} = \\frac{\\$6.8T}{335M} = \\$20.3K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":0.0003383084577114428},"VICTORY_BOND_ANNUAL_PAYOUT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/treaty-financial-plan.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Annual VICTORY Incentive Alignment Bond payout (treaty funding × bond percentage)","displayName":"Annual VICTORY Incentive Alignment Bond Payout","formatted":"2.72B USD/year","formula":"TREATY_FUNDING × BOND_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nPayout_{bond,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{bond} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":2720000000},"VICTORY_BOND_ANNUAL_RETURN_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-protocol-v1.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1.8433450155330258,4.049526942608436],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual return percentage for VICTORY Incentive Alignment Bondholders","displayName":"Annual Return Percentage for VICTORY Incentive Alignment Bondholders","formatted":"272.0%","formula":"PAYOUT ÷ CAMPAIGN_COST","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nr_{bond} = \\frac{Payout_{bond,ann}}{Cost_{campaign}} = \\frac{\\$2.72B}{\\$1B} = 272\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Payout_{bond,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{bond} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{campaign} = Budget_{viral,base} + Budget_{lobby,treaty} + Budget_{reserve} = \\$250M + \\$650M + \\$100M = \\$1B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":2.72},"VOTER_LIVES_SAVED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/nonprofit-coalition-strategy.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1.510533232384627,4.920610689575209],"conservative":null,"description":"Average lives saved per verified voter if the treaty passes (total lives saved divided by the majority-of-humanity coordination target).","displayName":"Lives Saved per Verified Voter","formatted":"2.6029909969470952 lives","formula":"TOTAL_TIMELINE_SHIFT_LIVES_SAVED ÷ GLOBAL_REGISTERED_VOTERS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nLives_{voter} = \\frac{Lives_{max}}{N_{voters,global}} = \\frac{10.7B}{4.13B} = 2.6\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{max} = Deaths_{disease,daily} \\times T_{accel,max} \\times 338 = 150{,}000 \\times 212 \\times 338 = 10.7B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"lives","value":2.6029909969470952},"VOTER_SUFFERING_HOURS_PREVENTED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/nonprofit-coalition-strategy.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[251302.62167463073,907239.7451204911],"conservative":null,"description":"Average suffering hours prevented per verified voter if the treaty passes (total suffering hours divided by the majority-of-humanity coordination target).","displayName":"Suffering Hours Prevented per Verified Voter","formatted":"467,788.718 hours","formula":"TOTAL_TIMELINE_SHIFT_SUFFERING_HOURS ÷ GLOBAL_REGISTERED_VOTERS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nHours_{suffer,voter} = \\frac{Hours_{suffer,max}}{N_{voters,global}} = \\frac{1930T}{4.13B} = 468{,}000\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Hours_{suffer,max} = DALYs_{max} \\times Pct_{YLD} \\times 8760 = 565B \\times 0.39 \\times 8760 = 1930T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"hours","value":467788.7180433564},"WAR_CHILDREN_KILLED_SINCE_1900":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[60219045.3235168,120221034.49233094],"conservative":null,"description":"Estimated children under 18 killed in wars, conflicts, genocides, and policy-induced famines since 1900","displayName":"Children Killed in Wars Since 1900","formatted":"102.30M deaths","formula":"WAR_DEATHS_SINCE_1900 × WAR_CHILD_DEATH_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDeaths_{war,child} \\\\\n= Deaths_{war,1900} \\times Pct_{war,child} \\\\\n= 310M \\times 33\\% \\\\\n= 102M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"deaths","value":102300000},"WAR_COSTS_CUMULATIVE_20YR_CURRENT_TRAJECTORY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[199157191518248.4,257398746175141.75],"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative global war costs over 20 years if current spending levels continue. The price tag of the status quo trajectory.","displayName":"Cumulative War Costs over 20 Years (Current Trajectory)","formatted":"$227.14T","formula":"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DIRECT_INDIRECT_WAR_COST × 20","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{war,20yr} = Cost_{war,total} \\times 20 = \\$11.4T \\times 20 = \\$227T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":227142000000000},"WAR_COSTS_SAVED_PEACE_TRAJECTORY_20YR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[4855135016626.101,20169742856741.016],"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative war costs saved over 20 years as treaty expands via IAB ratchet. Assumes war costs decline proportionally to spending cuts (e=1.0); Pape research suggests e>1.0 due to terrorism feedback loops, so the proportional assumption sits at the low end of the evidence.","displayName":"War Costs Saved via Peace Trajectory (20yr)","formatted":"$13.17T","formula":"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DIRECT_INDIRECT_WAR_COST × (0.01×3 + min(0.02, TREATY_RATCHET_TERMINAL_SHARE)×4 + min(0.05, TREATY_RATCHET_TERMINAL_SHARE)×5 + TREATY_RATCHET_TERMINAL_SHARE×8)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{war,20yr} = Cost_{war,total} \\times (0.01 \\times 3 + \\min\\left(0.02, s_{ratchet}\\right) \\times 4 + \\min\\left(0.05, s_{ratchet}\\right) \\times 5 + s_{ratchet} \\times 8)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":13174236000000.002},"WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_GDP_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[120623.75425408334,921184.9276046626],"conservative":null,"description":"Counterfactual global GDP per capita if all wars abolished since 1900. Actual is $14,375. Mid-range counterfactual: $333,636 (23.2x richer). 8 non-overlapping channels at +2.6pp.","displayName":"GDP per Capita in Peace Timeline","formatted":"333,635.723 USD/person","formula":"GLOBAL_GDP_PER_CAPITA_1900 × (1 + ACTUAL_CAGR + WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_ANNUAL_GROWTH_BOOST)^124","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nGDP_{pc,peace} \\\\\n= GDP_{pc,1900} \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\bar{y}_{0}}{GDP_{pc,1900}}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + g_{war,penalty}\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$3.15K \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\$14.4K}{\\$3.15K}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + 2.6\\%\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$334K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":333635.72273938934},"WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_INCOME_MULTIPLE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[8.401615271772743,63.98769814241601],"conservative":null,"description":"How many times richer the average person would be if wars had been abolished in 1900. Counterfactual GDP per capita / actual GDP per capita.","displayName":"Peace Income Multiple (How Much Richer Without War)","formatted":"23.209441581870564 x","formula":"WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_GDP_PER_CAPITA / GLOBAL_AVG_INCOME_2025","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nM_{war,income} = \\frac{GDP_{pc,peace}}{\\bar{y}_{0}} = \\frac{\\$334K}{\\$14.4K} = 23.2\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\begin{gathered}\nGDP_{pc,peace} \\\\\n= GDP_{pc,1900} \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\bar{y}_{0}}{GDP_{pc,1900}}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + g_{war,penalty}\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$3.15K \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\$14.4K}{\\$3.15K}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + 2.6\\%\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$334K\n\\end{gathered}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":23.209441581870564},"WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_LOST_GDP_GLOBAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[851185756253865.4,7243585286377841],"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual global GDP lost to compound war effects since 1900. Lost GDP per capita × 8 billion people.","displayName":"Annual Lost GDP Global from War","formatted":"2554085.78B USD/year","formula":"WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_LOST_GDP_PER_CAPITA × GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nGDP_{lost,total} = GDP_{pc,lost} \\times Pop_{global} = \\$319K \\times 8B = \\$2550T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{pc,lost} = GDP_{pc,peace} - \\bar{y}_{0} = \\$334K - \\$14.4K = \\$319K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\begin{gathered}\nGDP_{pc,peace} \\\\\n= GDP_{pc,1900} \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\bar{y}_{0}}{GDP_{pc,1900}}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + g_{war,penalty}\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$3.15K \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\$14.4K}{\\$3.15K}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + 2.6\\%\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$334K\n\\end{gathered}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":2554085781915114.5},"WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_LOST_GDP_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[106333.45427696833,906864.1974167905],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual GDP per capita lost due to compound war effects since 1900","displayName":"Annual Lost GDP per Capita from War","formatted":"319,260.723 USD/person/year","formula":"WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_GDP_PER_CAPITA - GLOBAL_AVG_INCOME_2025","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nGDP_{pc,lost} = GDP_{pc,peace} - \\bar{y}_{0} = \\$334K - \\$14.4K = \\$319K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\begin{gathered}\nGDP_{pc,peace} \\\\\n= GDP_{pc,1900} \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\bar{y}_{0}}{GDP_{pc,1900}}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + g_{war,penalty}\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$3.15K \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\$14.4K}{\\$3.15K}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + 2.6\\%\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$334K\n\\end{gathered}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person/year","value":319260.72273938934},"WAR_LIFE_YEARS_LOST_SINCE_1900":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[4919448225.065358,10384730566.748802],"conservative":null,"description":"Total life-years stolen by war since 1900 (deaths x avg years lost per death)","displayName":"Total Life-Years Lost to War Since 1900","formatted":"8.37B life-years","formula":"WAR_DEATHS_SINCE_1900 × WAR_AVG_YEARS_LIFE_LOST_PER_DEATH","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nYLL_{war,total} \\\\\n= Deaths_{war,1900} \\times YLL_{war} \\\\\n= 310M \\times 27 \\\\\n= 8.37B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"life-years","value":8370000000},"WAR_MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_PRIZE_OVERPAY_MULTIPLE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"How many times larger the prosecutor's medical-toolchain prize reserve is than the observed anchor costs listed here.","displayName":"War Medical Toolchain Prize Overpay Multiple","formatted":"341.1513859275053 x","formula":"WAR_MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_PRIZE_BUDGET / MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_OBSERVED_ANCHOR_COSTS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nm_{tool,overpay} = \\frac{C_{tool,prize}}{C_{tool,anchors}} = \\frac{\\$20T}{\\$58.6B} = 341\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{tool,anchors} = C_{tool,HGP} + C_{tool,CRISPR} + C_{tool,BRAIN} + C_{tool,PCORnet} + C_{tool,EHR} + C_{tool,OWS} = \\$2.7B + \\$3.1B + \\$4.5B + \\$325M + \\$30B + \\$18B = \\$58.6B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":341.1513859275053},"WAR_QALY_VALUE_LOST_SINCE_1900":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[644040083363499.5,1713196156477088],"conservative":null,"description":"Economic value of life-years destroyed by war since 1900, at $150K/QALY","displayName":"QALY Value of Life Lost to War Since 1900","formatted":"$1255.50T","formula":"WAR_LIFE_YEARS_LOST_SINCE_1900 × STANDARD_ECONOMIC_QALY_VALUE_USD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nV_{war,QALY} = YLL_{war,total} \\times Value_{QALY} = 8.37B \\times \\$150K = \\$1260T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLL_{war,total} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times YLL_{war} = 310M \\times 27 = 8.37B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1255500000000000},"WAR_TOTAL_COST_SINCE_1900":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[861973341709604.6,1932351083204031.5],"conservative":null,"description":"Total historical sunk cost of war since 1900: military spending ($170T) + property destruction ($45T) + environmental ($5T) + QALY value of lives ($1.26Q).","displayName":"Total Historical Cost of War Since 1900","formatted":"$1475.50T","formula":"CUMULATIVE_MILITARY_SPENDING_FED_ERA + WAR_PROPERTY_DESTRUCTION_SINCE_1900 + WAR_ENVIRONMENTAL_DESTRUCTION_SINCE_1900 + WAR_QALY_VALUE_LOST_SINCE_1900","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nC_{war,hist} = Spending_{mil,cum,fed} + D_{property} + D_{env} + V_{war,QALY} = \\$170T + \\$45T + \\$5T + \\$1260T = \\$1480T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,QALY} = YLL_{war,total} \\times Value_{QALY} = 8.37B \\times \\$150K = \\$1260T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLL_{war,total} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times YLL_{war} = 310M \\times 27 = 8.37B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1475500000000000},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_CONTROL_SENSITIVITY_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[1962,2060],"conservative":null,"description":"Counterfactual calendar year when biological aging becomes a treatable risk factor in the aggressive medical-redirect model. Uses the calculated aging pleading cutoff year.","displayName":"War-Redirect Biological Aging Control Year","formatted":"1,990 year","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nY_{aging,redirect} = Y_{aging,plead} = 1{,}990 = 1{,}990\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{aging,plead} = Y_{disease,plead} + T_{aging,lag} = 1{,}950 + 40 = 1{,}990\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"year","value":1990},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[1962,2060],"conservative":null,"description":"Aggressive prosecutor pleading cutoff year for presumptive aging-death plaintiffs. Calculated as the disease cutoff plus the geroscience lag assumption.","displayName":"War-Redirect Aging Pleading Cutoff Year","formatted":"1,990 year","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_DISEASE_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_LAG_AFTER_DISEASE_CONTROL_YEARS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nY_{aging,plead} = Y_{disease,plead} + T_{aging,lag} = 1{,}950 + 40 = 1{,}990\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"year","value":1990},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_DISEASE_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[1922,2020],"conservative":null,"description":"Aggressive prosecutor pleading cutoff year for presumptive disease-death plaintiffs. Calculated as the 1900 redirect start year plus medical-toolchain bootstrap years plus the treaty-scale therapeutic queue-clearance years.","displayName":"War-Redirect Disease Pleading Cutoff Year","formatted":"1,950 year","formula":"round(WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_START_YEAR + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_TOOLCHAIN_BOOTSTRAP_YEARS + DFDA_QUEUE_CLEARANCE_YEARS)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nY_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"year","value":1950},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_EXCESS_MILITARY_SPENDING_ABOVE_1900_FREEZE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[132439463556858.14,136344046254837.72],"conservative":null,"description":"Dataset-derived aggregate: cumulative global military spending above a 1900 real-spending freeze, 1900-2024, calculated from knowledge/data/global-military-spending-1900-2024-constant-2023-usd.csv (Correlates of War NMC) as the sum of max(0, annual spending - 1900 baseline) across years. The stricter medical redirect pot, distinct from total cumulative military spending.","displayName":"Excess Military Spending Above 1900 Freeze","formatted":"$134.72T","formula":"for t=1900..2024: sum max(0, MILITARY_SPENDING_YEAR - WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_1900_FREEZE_BASELINE_ANNUAL)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSpending_{mil,excess1900} \\\\\n= \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) \\\\\n= \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) \\\\\n= \\$135T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"correlates-of-war-nmc","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/national-material-capabilities/","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":134715100378699.22},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_EXCESS_MILITARY_TRIAL_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[22458.83473347191,43916.679157044564],"conservative":null,"description":"Clinical-trial years funded by military spending above a 1900 real-spending freeze. This is the literal 1900-freeze medical redirect capacity, not total cumulative military spending.","displayName":"Excess Military Spending Above 1900 Freeze in Clinical Trial Years","formatted":"29,936.689 years","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_EXCESS_MILITARY_SPENDING_ABOVE_1900_FREEZE / GLOBAL_GOVERNMENT_CLINICAL_TRIALS_SPENDING_ANNUAL","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nYears_{excess1900 \\to trials,gov} = \\frac{Spending_{mil,excess1900}}{Spending_{trials,gov}} = \\frac{\\$135T}{\\$4.5B} = 29{,}900\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":29936.68897304427},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_INFECTIOUS_DISEASE_CONTROL_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[1922,2020],"conservative":null,"description":"Counterfactual calendar year for practical infectious-disease control in the aggressive medical-redirect model. Uses the calculated disease pleading cutoff year.","displayName":"War-Redirect Infectious Disease Control Year","formatted":"1,950 year","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_DISEASE_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nY_{infectious,redirect} = Y_{disease,plead} = 1{,}950 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"year","value":1950},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_NET_TRIAL_BUDGET":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative military spending since the Federal Reserve era after reserving the aggressive prosecutor's medical-toolchain prize budget.","displayName":"War Trial Redirect Net Trial Budget After Toolchain Reserve","formatted":"$150.00T","formula":"CUMULATIVE_MILITARY_SPENDING_FED_ERA - WAR_MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_PRIZE_BUDGET","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nB_{trials,net} \\\\\n= Spending_{mil,cum,fed} - C_{tool,prize} \\\\\n= \\$170T - \\$20T \\\\\n= \\$150T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":150000000000000},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_NONAGING_DISEASE_CONTROL_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[1922,2020],"conservative":null,"description":"Counterfactual calendar year for practical control of major non-aging disease burden in the aggressive medical-redirect model. Uses the calculated disease pleading cutoff year.","displayName":"War-Redirect Major Non-Aging Disease Control Year","formatted":"1,950 year","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_DISEASE_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nY_{disease,redirect} = Y_{disease,plead} = 1{,}950 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"year","value":1950},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_PATIENT_SLOTS_FUNDED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[63643397327.54487,647384439215.2678],"conservative":null,"description":"Patient-slots funded by the net redirected war budget at pragmatic trial cost per patient. Patient-slots are repeated experimental opportunities, not unique people.","displayName":"War Trial Redirect Patient Slots Funded","formatted":"161.46B patient-slots","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_NET_TRIAL_BUDGET / DFDA_PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_COST_PER_PATIENT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{slots,war} = \\frac{B_{trials,net}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$150T}{\\$929} = 161B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } B_{trials,net} = Spending_{mil,cum,fed} - C_{tool,prize} = \\$170T - \\$20T = \\$150T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"patient-slots","value":161463939720.12918},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_PATIENT_SLOTS_PER_LIVING_HUMAN":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[7.990615100262892,81.17002738797103],"conservative":null,"description":"Patient-slots funded per living human, used to avoid implying hundreds of billions of unique patients. It means repeated trial opportunities across time and indications.","displayName":"War Trial Redirect Patient Slots Per Living Human","formatted":"20.18299246501615 patient-slots/person","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_PATIENT_SLOTS_FUNDED / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{slots,pc} = \\frac{N_{slots,war}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{161B}{8B} = 20.2\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{slots,war} = \\frac{B_{trials,net}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$150T}{\\$929} = 161B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } B_{trials,net} = Spending_{mil,cum,fed} - C_{tool,prize} = \\$170T - \\$20T = \\$150T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"patient-slots/person","value":20.18299246501615},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_AGING_PLAINTIFFS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[-1715712039.9038577,3414385789.9942017],"conservative":null,"description":"Aggressive prosecutor aging intake count after the aging cutoff year. This overlaps with the broader disease-death plaintiff class because the annual-deaths parameter covers all disease and aging deaths; it is an intake class, not an additive damages line.","displayName":"War Trial Redirect Post-Cutoff Aging Plaintiffs","formatted":"1.78B plaintiffs","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_AGING_YEARS * GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DEATHS_CURABLE_DISEASES * EVENTUALLY_AVOIDABLE_DEATH_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{plaintiffs,aging} = T_{post,aging} \\times Deaths_{curable,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,death} = 35 \\times 55M \\times 92.6\\% = 1.78B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,aging} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{aging,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{aging,plead} = Y_{disease,plead} + T_{aging,lag} = 1{,}950 + 40 = 1{,}990\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"plaintiffs","value":1783085302.091402},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_AGING_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[-35,63],"conservative":null,"description":"Inclusive number of years in the aggressive prosecutor aging-death intake window.","displayName":"War Trial Redirect Post-Cutoff Aging Years","formatted":"35 years","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_PLEADING_END_YEAR - WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR + 1","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{post,aging} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{aging,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{aging,plead} = Y_{disease,plead} + T_{aging,lag} = 1{,}950 + 40 = 1{,}990\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":35},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_DISEASE_DALYS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[13465602325.314978,289242429855.33044],"conservative":null,"description":"Aggressive prosecutor estimate of post-cutoff avoidable disease DALYs. This measures disease-years, disability, and suffering after the disease cutoff, separate from the death-plaintiff VSL count.","displayName":"War Trial Redirect Post-Cutoff Disease DALYs","formatted":"200.08B DALYs","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_DISEASE_YEARS * GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DALY_BURDEN * EVENTUALLY_AVOIDABLE_DALY_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDALYs_{post,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} = 75 \\times 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% = 200B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,disease} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{disease,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"DALYs","value":200076065065.84042},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_DISEASE_PLAINTIFFS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[245074141.78372982,5679963197.72763],"conservative":null,"description":"Aggressive prosecutor pleading count for post-cutoff disease-death plaintiffs: inclusive years from the disease cutoff through the pleading end year, multiplied by annual disease deaths and the eventually avoidable death share.","displayName":"War Trial Redirect Post-Cutoff Disease Plaintiffs","formatted":"3.82B plaintiffs","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_DISEASE_YEARS * GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DEATHS_CURABLE_DISEASES * EVENTUALLY_AVOIDABLE_DEATH_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{plaintiffs,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times Deaths_{curable,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,death} = 75 \\times 55M \\times 92.6\\% = 3.82B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,disease} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{disease,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"plaintiffs","value":3820897075.910147},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_DISEASE_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[5,103],"conservative":null,"description":"Inclusive number of years in the aggressive prosecutor disease-death plaintiff window.","displayName":"War Trial Redirect Post-Cutoff Disease Years","formatted":"75 years","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_PLEADING_END_YEAR - WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_DISEASE_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR + 1","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{post,disease} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{disease,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":75},"WILLING_TRIAL_PARTICIPANTS_GLOBAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[911322211.1033654,1251932458.8315134],"conservative":null,"description":"Global chronic disease patients willing to participate in trials (2.4B × 44.8%)","displayName":"Global Patients Willing to Participate in Clinical Trials","formatted":"1.08B people","formula":"CURRENT_DISEASE_PATIENTS_GLOBAL × PATIENT_WILLINGNESS_TRIAL_PARTICIPATION_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{willing} \\\\\n= N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} \\\\\n= 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% \\\\\n= 1.08B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"people","value":1075200000},"WISHONIA_DISEASE_CURE_FRACTION_15YR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Wishonia disease-cure fraction over 15 years under full implementation. Uses full trial-capacity scaling and applies an upper bound of 100% of untreated disease classes.","displayName":"Wishonia Disease Cure Fraction (15yr, Full Implementation)","formatted":"100.0%","formula":"min(1.0, NEW_DISEASE_FIRST_TREATMENTS_PER_YEAR * min(TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER * (WISHONIA_MILITARY_REALLOCATION_PHYSICAL_MAX_SHARE / 0.01), MAX_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER_PHYSICAL) * 15 / DISEASES_WITHOUT_EFFECTIVE_TREATMENT)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nf_{cure,15,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{15}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":1},"WISHONIA_DISEASE_CURE_FRACTION_20YR_FULL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Wishonia disease-cure fraction over 20 years under full implementation. Uses full trial-capacity scaling and applies an upper bound of 100% of untreated disease classes.","displayName":"Wishonia Disease Cure Fraction (20yr, Full Implementation)","formatted":"100.0%","formula":"min(1.0, NEW_DISEASE_FIRST_TREATMENTS_PER_YEAR × min(TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER × (WISHONIA_MILITARY_REALLOCATION_PHYSICAL_MAX_SHARE ÷ 0.01), MAX_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER_PHYSICAL) × 20 ÷ DISEASES_WITHOUT_EFFECTIVE_TREATMENT)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nf_{cure,20,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{20}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":1},"WISHONIA_EXTRA_HALE_GAIN_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[9.995811816007562,29.02606853944804],"conservative":null,"description":"Additional healthy years at year 15 from optimal-governance public-health improvements plus partial realization of longer-run longevity gains. This removes the implicit cap at today's life expectancy and lets Wishonia exceed it for non-arbitrary reasons.","displayName":"Wishonia Extra HALE Gain at Year 15","formatted":"16.69999999999999 years","formula":"WISHONIA_DISEASE_CURE_FRACTION_15YR × (BEST_PRACTICE_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_GAIN + LIFE_EXTENSION_YEARS × HALE_LONGEVITY_REALIZATION_SHARE_YEAR_15)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\Delta HALE_{wish,extra,15} = f_{cure,15,wish} \\times (\\Delta LE_{best} + T_{extend} \\times \\rho_{HALE,15})\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{15}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta LE_{best} = \\max\\left(LE_{CH}, LE_{SG}\\right) - LE_{global}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":16.69999999999999},"WISHONIA_HALE_GAIN_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[20.58241025528879,39.15917589270146],"conservative":null,"description":"HALE improvement at year 15 under Wishonia Trajectory. It includes closing the current HALE gap, reaching today's best-practice life expectancy through optimal governance/public health, and a conservative partial realization of longer-run longevity gains.","displayName":"Wishonia HALE Gain at Year 15","formatted":"26.799999999999997 years","formula":"WISHONIA_DISEASE_CURE_FRACTION_15YR × GLOBAL_HALE_GAP + WISHONIA_EXTRA_HALE_GAIN_YEAR_15","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\Delta HALE_{wish,15} = f_{cure,15,wish} \\times \\Delta_{HALE} + \\Delta HALE_{wish,extra,15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{15}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{wish,extra,15} = f_{cure,15,wish} \\times (\\Delta LE_{best} + T_{extend} \\times \\rho_{HALE,15})\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta LE_{best} = \\max\\left(LE_{CH}, LE_{SG}\\right) - LE_{global}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":26.799999999999997},"WISHONIA_HALE_VALUE_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2465930.5054669804,6288928.026166532],"conservative":null,"description":"Economic value of Wishonia Trajectory HALE gains at year 15 using the standard QALY value.","displayName":"Wishonia HALE Value Per Capita","formatted":"4.02M USD/person","formula":"WISHONIA_HALE_GAIN_YEAR_15 × STANDARD_ECONOMIC_QALY_VALUE_USD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nValue_{HALE,wish} = \\Delta HALE_{wish,15} \\times Value_{QALY} = 26.8 \\times \\$150K = \\$4.02M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{wish,15} = f_{cure,15,wish} \\times \\Delta_{HALE} + \\Delta HALE_{wish,extra,15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{15}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{wish,extra,15} = f_{cure,15,wish} \\times (\\Delta LE_{best} + T_{extend} \\times \\rho_{HALE,15})\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta LE_{best} = \\max\\left(LE_{CH}, LE_{SG}\\right) - LE_{global}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":4019999.9999999995},"WISHONIA_MILITARY_REALLOCATION_PHYSICAL_MAX_SHARE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Maximum physically demonstrated military reallocation share, anchored to post-WW2 US demobilization.","displayName":"Wishonia Military Reallocation Physical Max Share","formatted":"87.6%","formula":"POST_WW2_MILITARY_CUT_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\ns_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.876056338028169},"WISHONIA_PERSONAL_UPSIDE_BLEND":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[17276092.959121086,101121973.9637052],"conservative":null,"description":"Blended personal upside under Wishonia Trajectory: lifetime income gain plus valued healthy-life gains.","displayName":"Wishonia Personal Upside (Blended)","formatted":"40.47M USD/person","formula":"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_LIFETIME_INCOME_GAIN_PER_CAPITA + WISHONIA_HALE_VALUE_PER_CAPITA","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nUpside_{blend,wish} = \\Delta Y_{lifetime,wish} + Value_{HALE,wish} = \\$36.4M + \\$4.02M = \\$40.5M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta Y_{lifetime,wish} = Y_{cum,wish} - Y_{cum,earth} = \\$37.3M - \\$904K = \\$36.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,wish} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,wish})((1+g_{pc,wish})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,wish}} + \\bar{y}_{wish,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{wish,20} = \\frac{GDP_{wish,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$10700T}{9.2B} = \\$1.16M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{wish,20}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{17}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{20}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{remaining} = LE_{global} - Age_{median} = 73.4 - 30.5 = 42.9\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,earth} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Value_{HALE,wish} = \\Delta HALE_{wish,15} \\times Value_{QALY} = 26.8 \\times \\$150K = \\$4.02M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{wish,15} = f_{cure,15,wish} \\times \\Delta_{HALE} + \\Delta HALE_{wish,extra,15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{15}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{wish,extra,15} = f_{cure,15,wish} \\times (\\Delta LE_{best} + T_{extend} \\times \\rho_{HALE,15})\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta LE_{best} = \\max\\left(LE_{CH}, LE_{SG}\\right) - LE_{global}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":40465379.70908192},"WISHONIA_PROJECTED_HALE_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-protocol-v1.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[84.9047947247837,102.25883403795622],"conservative":null,"description":"Projected global HALE at year 15 under Wishonia Trajectory. Full implementation closes the entire disease gap, pushing HALE toward life expectancy.","displayName":"Wishonia Projected HALE at Year 15","formatted":"90.1 years","formula":"GLOBAL_HALE_CURRENT + WISHONIA_HALE_GAIN_YEAR_15","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nHALE_{wish,15} = HALE_{0} + \\Delta HALE_{wish,15} = 63.3 + 26.8 = 90.1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{wish,15} = f_{cure,15,wish} \\times \\Delta_{HALE} + \\Delta HALE_{wish,extra,15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{15}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{wish,extra,15} = f_{cure,15,wish} \\times (\\Delta LE_{best} + T_{extend} \\times \\rho_{HALE,15})\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta LE_{best} = \\max\\left(LE_{CH}, LE_{SG}\\right) - LE_{global}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":90.1},"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_AVG_INCOME_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-protocol-v1.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[223451.85343735354,1079859.2002005558],"conservative":null,"description":"Average income (GDP per capita) at year 15 under the Wishonia Trajectory.","displayName":"Wishonia Trajectory Average Income at Year 15","formatted":"$503.79K","formula":"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_15 / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2040_PROJECTED","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\bar{y}_{wish,15} = \\frac{GDP_{wish,15}}{Pop_{2040}} = \\frac{\\$4480T}{8.9B} = \\$504K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{wish,15}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{12}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{15}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":503789.8257135314},"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_AVG_INCOME_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[429663.5441855804,3041381.1240374753],"conservative":null,"description":"Average income (GDP per capita) at year 20 under the Wishonia Trajectory.","displayName":"Wishonia Trajectory Average Income at Year 20","formatted":"$1.16M","formula":"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20 / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2045_PROJECTED","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\bar{y}_{wish,20} = \\frac{GDP_{wish,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$10700T}{9.2B} = \\$1.16M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{wish,20}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{17}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{20}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1161818.358400575},"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_CAGR_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.1934684001290923,0.3161580417331437],"conservative":null,"description":"Compound annual growth rate implied by Wishonia Trajectory GDP trajectory over 20 years.","displayName":"Wishonia Trajectory CAGR (20 Years)","formatted":"25.4%","formula":"(WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20 ÷ GLOBAL_GDP_2025)^(1/20) - 1","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\ng_{wish,CAGR} = \\left(\\frac{GDP_{wish,20}}{GDP_{global}}\\right)^{\\frac{1}{20}} - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{wish,20}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{17}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{20}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.2543288493473528},"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_CUMULATIVE_LIFETIME_INCOME":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[14370660.309913196,97853173.45365392],"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative per-capita income over an average remaining lifespan under Wishonia Trajectory. Uses implied per-capita CAGR for years 1-20, then current-trajectory per-capita growth from the year-20 level. Conservative: assumes no further acceleration beyond year 20.","displayName":"Wishonia Trajectory Cumulative Lifetime Income (Per Capita)","formatted":"$37.35M","formula":"Phase 1: y0*(1+g_pc,wish)*((1+g_pc,wish)^20-1)/g_pc,wish + Phase 2: y20*(1+g_pc,base)*((1+g_pc,base)^(T-20)-1)/g_pc,base","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nY_{cum,wish} \\\\\n= \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,wish})((1+g_{pc,wish})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,wish}} \\\\\n+ \\bar{y}_{wish,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":37349287.68581682},"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_GDP_VS_CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_MULTIPLIER_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[11.940379955233913,57.70338867278431],"conservative":null,"description":"Wishonia Trajectory GDP at year 15 as a multiple of current trajectory GDP at year 15.","displayName":"Wishonia Trajectory vs Current Trajectory GDP Multiplier (Year 15)","formatted":"26.92052826622498 x","formula":"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_15 / CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_15","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{wish:base,15} = \\frac{GDP_{wish,15}}{GDP_{base,15}} = \\frac{\\$4480T}{\\$167T} = 26.9\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{wish,15}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{12}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{15}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,15} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{15}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":26.92052826622498},"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_GDP_VS_CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_MULTIPLIER_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[20.976894097776086,148.48532209275206],"conservative":null,"description":"Wishonia Trajectory GDP at year 20 as a multiple of current trajectory GDP at year 20.","displayName":"Wishonia Trajectory vs Current Trajectory GDP Multiplier (Year 20)","formatted":"56.721918800945424 x","formula":"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20 ÷ CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{wish:base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{wish,20}}{GDP_{base,20}} = \\frac{\\$10700T}{\\$188T} = 56.7\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{wish,20}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{17}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{20}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":56.721918800945424},"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-protocol-v1.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1988721495592446.5,9610746881784948],"conservative":null,"description":"Projected global GDP at year 15 under the Wishonia Trajectory. Applies all Wishonia policy channels including military reallocation, disease-burden recovery, and Political Dysfunction Tax elimination. 3-year ramp at 50% intensity + 12 years full.","displayName":"Wishonia Trajectory GDP at Year 15","formatted":"$4483.73T","formula":"GLOBAL_GDP_2025 * (1 + g_ramp)^3 * (1 + g_full)^12, where years 1-3 use 50% of military and non-health reallocation intensity, and years 4-15 use 100%; both include disease-burden recovery","latex":"GDP_{wish,15}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{12}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":4483729448850429.5},"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3952904606507339.5,27980706341144772],"conservative":null,"description":"Projected global GDP at year 20 under the Wishonia Trajectory. Model applies all Wishonia policy channels and redirects the full Political Dysfunction Tax non-health opportunity pool to highest-marginal-value uses. Health recovery is modeled separately through disease burden removal to avoid overlap. Military and non-health reallocation effects are ramped at 50% intensity for the first 3 years, then 100% for years 4-20, reflecting implementation lag. Military reallocation uses a physically demonstrated upper bound (post-WW2 demobilization) rather than an arbitrary policy cap.","displayName":"Wishonia Trajectory GDP at Year 20","formatted":"$10688.73T","formula":"GLOBAL_GDP_2025 × (1 + g_ramp)^3 × (1 + g_full)^17, where years 1-3 use 50% of military and non-health reallocation intensity, and years 4-20 use 100%; both include disease-burden recovery","latex":"GDP_{wish,20}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{17}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":10688728897285288},"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_LIFETIME_INCOME_GAIN_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[13459709.067458726,96978521.36720507],"conservative":null,"description":"Lifetime per-capita income gain from Wishonia Trajectory vs current trajectory. Cumulative Wishonia income minus cumulative current trajectory income over average remaining lifespan.","displayName":"Wishonia Trajectory Lifetime Income Gain (Per Capita)","formatted":"$36.45M","formula":"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_CUMULATIVE_LIFETIME_INCOME - CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_CUMULATIVE_LIFETIME_INCOME","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\Delta Y_{lifetime,wish} = Y_{cum,wish} - Y_{cum,earth} = \\$37.3M - \\$904K = \\$36.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,wish} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,wish})((1+g_{pc,wish})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,wish}} + \\bar{y}_{wish,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{wish,20} = \\frac{GDP_{wish,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$10700T}{9.2B} = \\$1.16M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{wish,20}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{17}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{20}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{remaining} = LE_{global} - Age_{median} = 73.4 - 30.5 = 42.9\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,earth} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":36445379.70908192},"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_LIFETIME_INCOME_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[15.940797863008127,105.542958256474],"conservative":null,"description":"Ratio of cumulative lifetime income under Wishonia Trajectory vs current trajectory. Income-agnostic: applies as a multiplier to any individual's lifetime earnings.","displayName":"Wishonia Trajectory Lifetime Income Multiplier","formatted":"41.31978989800511 x","formula":"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_CUMULATIVE_LIFETIME_INCOME / CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_CUMULATIVE_LIFETIME_INCOME","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{lifetime,wish:earth} = \\frac{Y_{cum,wish}}{Y_{cum,earth}} = \\frac{\\$37.3M}{\\$904K} = 41.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,wish} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,wish})((1+g_{pc,wish})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,wish}} + \\bar{y}_{wish,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{wish,20} = \\frac{GDP_{wish,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$10700T}{9.2B} = \\$1.16M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{wish,20}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{17}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{20}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{remaining} = LE_{global} - Age_{median} = 73.4 - 30.5 = 42.9\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,earth} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":41.31978989800511},"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_MEDIAN_AFTER_TAX_INCOME_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[70137.19137190594,507535.3411211986],"conservative":null,"description":"Median after-tax consumable income at year 20 under the Wishonia Trajectory. Claims tied to mechanisms: share erosion excluded (the wishocratic one-person-one-vote mechanism exists precisely to stop the capture that drives the wedge), the military share falls by the already-parameterized physical max reallocation, and the health-burden relief channel applies at Wishonia's own full-implementation cure fraction. Deliberately UNMODELED: the wishocratic equal-per-person allocation of recovered dysfunction waste is pro-median by arithmetic, but that recovery is already inside the Wishonia GDP trajectory, so modeling its distributional bonus separately would double-count. The bonus is real and omitted; this estimate is therefore a floor.","displayName":"Median After-Tax Consumable Income, Wishonia (Year 20)","formatted":"$194.13K","formula":"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_AVG_INCOME_YEAR_20 * (1 - GLOBAL_MILITARY_SHARE_OF_GDP*(1-WISHONIA_MILITARY_REALLOCATION_PHYSICAL_MAX_SHARE)) * GLOBAL_MEDIAN_TO_MEAN_INCOME_RATIO * (1 + MEDIAN_HEALTH_BURDEN_RELIEF_SHARE * WISHONIA_DISEASE_CURE_FRACTION_20YR_FULL) * (1 - GLOBAL_EFFECTIVE_TAX_RATE_MEDIAN)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\tilde{m}_{wish,20} = \\bar{y}_{wish,20} \\times (1 - s_{mil} \\times (1-s_{mil,max})) \\times \\rho_{med} \\times (1 + r_{relief} \\times f_{cure,20,wish}) \\times (1 - \\tau_{med})\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{wish,20} = \\frac{GDP_{wish,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$10700T}{9.2B} = \\$1.16M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{wish,20}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{17}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{20}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil} = \\frac{Spending_{mil}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$2.72T}{\\$115T} = 2.37\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\rho_{med} = \\frac{\\tilde{y}_{gallup}}{\\bar{y}_{0}} = \\frac{\\$2.92K}{\\$14.4K} = 0.203\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":194129.77945170147},"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_VS_TREATY_TRAJECTORY_GDP_MULTIPLIER_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[12.723191033548,83.35451791192327],"conservative":null,"description":"Year-20 GDP multiplier from adding non-health dysfunction-capital reallocation on top of the Treaty Trajectory channels.","displayName":"Wishonia Trajectory vs Treaty Trajectory GDP Multiplier (Year 20)","formatted":"33.22171371430069 x","formula":"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20 ÷ TREATY_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{wish,full:core,20} = \\frac{GDP_{wish,20}}{GDP_{treaty,20}} = \\frac{\\$10700T}{\\$322T} = 33.2\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{wish,20}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{17}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{20}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} = s_{ratchet} \\times 0.409 = 10\\% \\times 0.409 = 5.8\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease})^{\\frac{1}{H_{health,treaty}}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, (3 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{0.01}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max}) + 4 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.02, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 5 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times (min(0.05, s_{ratchet})/0.01), k_{capacity,max}) + 8 \\times min(k_{capacity} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{ratchet}}{0.01}\\right), k_{capacity,max})) / T_{queue,SQ}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":33.22171371430069},"WISHONIA_VS_CURRENT_MEDIAN_INCOME_MULTIPLIER_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[23.672757026891833,169.39956523706965],"conservative":null,"description":"Median after-tax income at year 20: Wishonia vs status quo.","displayName":"Wishonia vs Status Quo Median Income Multiplier (Year 20)","formatted":"64.01456372366505 x","formula":"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_MEDIAN_AFTER_TAX_INCOME_YEAR_20 / CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_MEDIAN_AFTER_TAX_INCOME_YEAR_20","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{med,wish:base} = \\frac{\\tilde{m}_{wish,20}}{\\tilde{m}_{base,20}} = \\frac{\\$194K}{\\$3.03K} = 64\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\tilde{m}_{wish,20} = \\bar{y}_{wish,20} \\times (1 - s_{mil} \\times (1-s_{mil,max})) \\times \\rho_{med} \\times (1 + r_{relief} \\times f_{cure,20,wish}) \\times (1 - \\tau_{med})\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{wish,20} = \\frac{GDP_{wish,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$10700T}{9.2B} = \\$1.16M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{wish,20}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{17}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{20}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil} = \\frac{Spending_{mil}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$2.72T}{\\$115T} = 2.37\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\rho_{med} = \\frac{\\tilde{y}_{gallup}}{\\bar{y}_{0}} = \\frac{\\$2.92K}{\\$14.4K} = 0.203\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\tilde{m}_{base,20} = \\bar{y}_{base,20} \\times (1 - s_{mil} \\times \\left(\\frac{1+g_{mil,10yr}}{1+g_{base}}\\right)^{20}) \\times \\rho_{med} \\times (1 - e_{med})^{20} \\times (1 - \\tau_{med})\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":64.01456372366505},"ADAPTABLE_TRIAL_PATIENTS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Patients enrolled in ADAPTABLE trial (PCORnet 2016-2019). 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Based on Lichtenberg's methodology where life-years are calculated from Years of Life Lost (YLL) reductions.","displayName":"Average Life Extension per Beneficiary","formatted":"12 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"lichtenberg-life-years-saved-2019","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://www.nber.org/papers/w25483","stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":12},"CAMPAIGN_CELEBRITY_ENDORSEMENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[10500000,19500000],"conservative":null,"description":"Celebrity and influencer endorsements","displayName":"Celebrity and Influencer 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Based on the Humanity v. Government exclusion note that drugs never developed may double or triple Count Two; this uses the high end of that pleading range.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Drugs Never Developed Deaths","formatted":"300.00M deaths","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"deaths","value":300000000},"COURT_BUILD_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/court-of-humanity.html","confidence":"estimated","confidenceInterval":[10000000,50000000],"conservative":null,"description":"One-time cost to build the Court of Humanity. Range reflects digital-first institutional design (no physical courtrooms, no detention, AI-assisted evidence triage, cryptographic provenance, stratified random jury infrastructure). Lower bound: minimal viable institution. Upper bound: fully-staffed initial operations, roughly 27% of one year of ICC operating budget (the ICC funds physical courtrooms, detention, and 425+ staff).","displayName":"Court of Humanity Build Cost","formatted":"$30.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":30000000},"CUMULATIVE_MILITARY_SPENDING_ALL_HISTORY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative global military spending across all recorded history in constant 2024 dollars. Fed era ($170T) + 19th century ($3T) + pre-1800 GDP-share estimate ($4-20T). Range: $150-225T. 75% was spent after 1945.","displayName":"Cumulative Military Spending (All History)","formatted":"$180.00T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"sipri-milex-2024","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2024","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":180000000000000},"CUMULATIVE_MILITARY_SPENDING_FED_ERA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative global military spending since 1913 (Fed era) in constant 2024 dollars. Built from: SIPRI 1988-2024 ($65-72T), Cold War 1946-1987 ($50-70T reconstructed), WWI+WWII+interwar ($33T from Harrison). Range: $150-190T.","displayName":"Cumulative Military Spending (Fed Era)","formatted":"$170.00T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"sipri-milex-2024","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2024","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":170000000000000},"DAYS_PER_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":null,"confidence":null,"confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":null,"displayName":"DAYS_PER_YEAR","formatted":"365","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":null,"sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":null,"value":365},"DCT_PLATFORM_FUNDING_MEDIUM":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/dfda.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Mid-range funding for commercial DCT platform","displayName":"Mid-Range Funding for Commercial Dct Platform","formatted":"$500.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":500000000},"DECENTRALIZED_CENSUS_BUREAU_ANNUAL_OPEX":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/decentralized-census-bureau.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[5000000,40000000],"conservative":null,"description":"All-in annual operating cost of the sensor array: continuously computing, cross-checking, and integrity-auditing the statistics the machine steers by (median after-tax income aggregates, healthy-life-expectancy estimation from dFDA outcome data, data-poisoning detection). Sized as a mid-sized analytics operation; roughly 1% of what the decennial census costs per year amortized. The citizen count itself is a free byproduct of the identity layer.","displayName":"Decentralized Census Bureau Annual Operating Cost","formatted":"$15.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":15000000},"DEFENSE_SECTOR_RETENTION_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Percentage of budget the military sector keeps under 1% treaty","displayName":"Percentage of Budget Military Sector Keeps Under 1% Treaty","formatted":"99.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.99},"DEFENSE_TAKEOVER_ACQUISITION_PREMIUM":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/loving-takeover.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1.5,3],"conservative":null,"description":"Planning multiplier for acquisition premium, execution friction, disclosure timing, and large-position accumulation costs in a counsel-led control campaign","displayName":"Acquisition Premium Multiplier","formatted":"1.8 x","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":1.8},"DEFENSE_TAKEOVER_CONTROL_FRACTION":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/loving-takeover.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Fraction of shares required for board control (50% + 1 share)","displayName":"Control Fraction","formatted":"0.501 ratio","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":0.501},"DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_BASE_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Base year for destructive economy projections. 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Validated by FDA Sentinel benchmark (~$1/patient/year for similar drug safety analysis at 100M+ scale). True cost varies with scale and complexity; exact value less important than order-of-magnitude difference vs pragmatic trials (~$500-929/patient) and traditional Phase 3 (~$41,000/patient).","displayName":"Stage 1 Observational Analysis Cost per Patient","formatted":"0.1 USD/patient","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/patient","value":0.1},"DFDA_OPEX_COMMUNITY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1000000,3000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Pragmatic trial platform community support costs","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Platform Community Support Costs","formatted":"2.00M USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":2000000},"DFDA_OPEX_INFRASTRUCTURE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[5000000,12000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Pragmatic trial platform infrastructure costs (cloud, security)","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Platform Infrastructure Costs","formatted":"8.00M USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":8000000},"DFDA_OPEX_PLATFORM_MAINTENANCE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[10000000,22000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Pragmatic trial platform maintenance costs","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Platform Maintenance Costs","formatted":"15.00M USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":15000000},"DFDA_OPEX_REGULATORY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3000000,8000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Pragmatic trial platform regulatory coordination costs","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Platform Regulatory Coordination Costs","formatted":"5.00M USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":5000000},"DFDA_OPEX_STAFF":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[7000000,15000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Pragmatic trial platform staff costs (minimal, AI-assisted)","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Platform Staff Costs","formatted":"10.00M USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":10000000},"DFDA_STORAGE_COST_BACKUP_PER_PATIENT_MONTHLY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/dfda.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.1,0.4],"conservative":null,"description":"Backup and redundancy cost per patient per month. 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This is not probability-weighted expected value; the calculator applies probability separately.","displayName":"EOS Stage 2 Defense-Primes Terminal Value","formatted":"$7.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":6000000000,"unit":"USD","value":7000000000},"EOS_STAGE_3_LOBBYING_SECTORS_TERMINAL_VALUE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/earth-optimization-fund.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[100000000000,2000000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Modeled terminal stage value if EOS applies the same governance pressure across major lobbying-heavy sectors whose current policy positions destroy shareholder value. 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Applied IDENTICALLY across all scenarios so it shifts levels without affecting any cross-scenario comparison: there is no pro-treaty thumb on this scale. The 'after-tax' in the metric name is honesty about levels, not a modeling lever.","displayName":"Effective Tax Rate on Median Earner","formatted":"25.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.25},"GLOBAL_MEDIAN_SHARE_EROSION_RATE_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[-0.005,0.0078],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual erosion of the median's share of mean income (positive = the middle person's slice shrinks). Best guess ZERO: the GLOBAL median-to-mean ratio ROSE 1990-2019 via between-country convergence (a billion people in Asia got real jobs), so the measured global sign favors the median; the US wedge is the extreme, not the world. 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Applied IDENTICALLY to the status-quo and treaty branches, so it cancels out of every treaty-vs-current multiplier; Wishonia excludes it (the wishocratic mechanism exists to stop share capture). v1 set this to 0.5%/yr shrinkage as skeptic armor; that was deliberate conservatism, replaced by deliberate accuracy plus deliberate uncertainty.","displayName":"Median Share Erosion Rate (Annual)","formatted":"0.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"epi-productivity-pay-gap-2024","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://www.epi.org/blog/growing-inequalities-reflecting-growing-employer-power-have-generated-a-productivity-pay-gap-since-1979-productivity-has-grown-3-5-times-as-much-as-pay-for-the-typical-worker/","stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0},"GLOBAL_TO_US_POLITICAL_COST_RATIO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/cost-of-change-analysis.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[3,8],"conservative":null,"description":"Ratio of global to US political reform costs. 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Scaled by each scenario's cure fraction, so partial cures give partial relief. 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Sized between the ALS Ice Bucket (~17M participants) and Livestrong (~87M bracelets) cascade trigger points, discounted for the lower-friction permanent-marker version.","displayName":"Shirt Seed Wearers Threshold","formatted":"1.00M of people","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"of people","value":1000000},"SHIRT_WEARING_FRICTION_COST_USD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/joke.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[1,25],"conservative":null,"description":"Perceived social friction cost of wearing a political message in public, expressed in dollar-equivalent terms. Sets the minimum per-wearer expected Earth Optimization Prize payout required to make participation rational at scale. 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Anchored to the most similar existing systems: the real-time fraud-detection operations card networks already run at market scale.","displayName":"Transparent Securities Commission Annual Operating Cost","formatted":"$20.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":20000000},"TREATY_CAMPAIGN_BUDGET_LOBBYING":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[325000000,1300000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Political lobbying campaign: direct lobbying (US/EU/G20), Super PACs, opposition research, staff, legal/compliance. Budget exceeds combined pharma ($300M/year) and military-industrial complex ($150M/year) lobbying to ensure competitive positioning. 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Components: platform ($35M), verification infrastructure (280M × friction × $0.18-0.20), tiered referral payments (varies by virality and marginal cost curve per diffusion theory), marketing seed ($5-15M). Based on PayPal referral economics ($18-36 inflation-adjusted) and biometric verification pricing ($0.15-0.25 at 300M+ scale).","displayName":"Viral Referendum Budget","formatted":"$250.00M","formula":"PLATFORM + VERIFICATION + PAYMENTS (tiered by adopter segment) + MARKETING","latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":250000000},"TREATY_HEALTH_RECOVERY_ANNUALIZATION_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Annualization horizon for the treaty health recovery GDP-drag term.","displayName":"Treaty Health Recovery Annualization Horizon","formatted":"20 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":20},"TREATY_RATCHET_TERMINAL_SHARE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[0.01,0.19],"conservative":null,"description":"Terminal share of military spending redirected under the IAB-ratchet take-hold schedule (1% for 3 years, 2% for 4, 5% for 5, terminal thereafter). The single ratchet knob: every treaty-trajectory parameter binds it, so setting it to 0.01 switches ratcheting off everywhere (the treaty stays at its initial 1% forever) and every treaty number degrades to its flat-1% bound. Uncertainty spans never-expands (0.01, the 95% lower bound) to overshooting the schedule (0.19): expansion is driven by bondholder lobbying incentives, which do not stop at 10% if they work at all.","displayName":"Treaty Ratchet Terminal Redirect Share","formatted":"10.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.1},"TREATY_REDIRECTED_SPENDING_INFINITE_ROI":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/1-percent-treaty.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"ROI when redirecting existing spending (no new costs = infinite return)","displayName":"Infinite ROI from Redirected Spending","formatted":"0 ratio","formula":"COMBINED_DIVIDENDS ÷ 0 = ∞","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\text{ROI} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\text{Annual Benefits}}{\\text{New Spending}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$172B}{0} \\\\\n= \\infty\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":0},"TREATY_REDUCTION_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"1% reduction in military spending/war costs from treaty","displayName":"1% Reduction in Military Spending/War Costs from Treaty","formatted":"1.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.01},"TRIAL_RELEVANT_DISEASES_COUNT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[800,1200],"conservative":null,"description":"Consolidated count of trial-relevant diseases worth targeting (after grouping ICD-10 codes)","displayName":"Trial-Relevant Diseases","formatted":"1,000 diseases","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"diseases","value":1000},"UNIVERSAL_SECURITY_ADMIN_ALL_IN_COST_PER_CITIZEN_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/universal-security-administration.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.1,1],"conservative":null,"description":"All-in annual cost per citizen served: sybil-resistant identity, 365 daily deposits, and the mostly-AI workforce. Anchored to the most similar system that exists: India's national biometric identity system serves 1.4 billion people at costs in this range per person per year, and payment rails move deposits for fractions of a cent.","displayName":"Universal Security Administration All-In Annual Cost per Citizen","formatted":"$0.3","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":0.3},"US_CONGRESS_MEMBER_COUNT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/unrepresentative-democracy.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Total members of US Congress (100 senators + 435 representatives)","displayName":"US Congress Members","formatted":"535 members","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"members","value":535},"US_DEFENSE_FP_COAST_GUARD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/eisenhower-curve.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[12000000000,16000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"US Coast Guard (actual budget ~$14B). Maritime homeland security and coastal defense.","displayName":"First-Principles Defense: Coast Guard","formatted":"$14.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":1500000000,"unit":"USD","value":14000000000},"US_DEFENSE_FP_CYBER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/eisenhower-curve.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[10000000000,25000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Cyber defense of critical infrastructure: the primary modern attack vector that crosses oceans in milliseconds and is not stopped by geography.","displayName":"First-Principles Defense: Cyber Defense","formatted":"$15.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":4000000000,"unit":"USD","value":15000000000},"US_DEFENSE_FP_HOMELAND_AIR_MISSILE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/eisenhower-curve.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[25000000000,50000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Continental air and missile defense plus early warning (NORAD, ground-based midcourse defense, interceptor aircraft). Defensive only; no expeditionary or power-projection air power.","displayName":"First-Principles Defense: Homeland Air & Missile Defense","formatted":"$35.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":7000000000,"unit":"USD","value":35000000000},"US_DEFENSE_FP_MOBILIZATION_HEDGE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/eisenhower-curve.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[40000000000,100000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Mobilization hedge: defense R&D, a maintained industrial base, and a professional cadre force. The WWII lesson is to maintain the capacity to scale, not a standing empire: a peer buildup gives years of warning, and the US went from the 17th-ranked army in 1939 to victory in four years. This is the cheapest insurance and the most neglected.","displayName":"First-Principles Defense: Mobilization Hedge","formatted":"$60.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":15000000000,"unit":"USD","value":60000000000},"US_DEFENSE_FP_NATIONAL_GUARD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/eisenhower-curve.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[24000000000,40000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"National Guard / territorial land defense: a citizen-soldier reserve (the Switzerland model) for homeland defense and disaster response.","displayName":"First-Principles Defense: National Guard","formatted":"$30.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":4000000000,"unit":"USD","value":30000000000},"US_DEFENSE_FP_NUCLEAR_DETERRENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/eisenhower-curve.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[20000000000,50000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Survivable nuclear second strike: an SSBN-centric minimum credible deterrent (~100-200 survivable warheads on ballistic-missile submarines). The one threat geography does not neutralize. Drops the first-strike-attractive ICBM silos and the bomber leg. The UK and France each sustain continuous-at-sea deterrents within total defense budgets under $80B.","displayName":"First-Principles Defense: Nuclear Second Strike","formatted":"$30.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":8000000000,"unit":"USD","value":30000000000},"US_DYSFUNCTION_PREMIUM_VS_SWITZERLAND":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"US 'dysfunction premium' vs Switzerland: US spends 3% more of GDP yet achieves 6.5 fewer years of life expectancy. This premium represents pure waste from governance inefficiency. Calculated as: 38% (US) - 35% (CH).","displayName":"US Dysfunction Premium vs Switzerland","formatted":"300.0%","formula":"US_GOVT_SPENDING_PCT_GDP - SWITZERLAND_GOVT_SPENDING_PCT_GDP","latex":null,"sourceRef":"oecd-govt-spending","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-spending.htm","stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":3},"US_GOV_WASTE_OVERLAP_DISCOUNT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Overlap discount factor between US government waste categories. Set to 1.0 (no discount). 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Range 0.4-1.2 reflects uncertainty about political dynamics.","displayName":"Political Effort Multiplier (US)","formatted":"0.7 multiplier","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"multiplier","value":0.7},"US_VS_SINGAPORE_SPENDING_GAP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Government spending gap: US spends 23 percentage points MORE of GDP than Singapore yet achieves 6.6 fewer years of life expectancy.","displayName":"US-Singapore Spending Gap","formatted":"2300.0%","formula":"US_SPENDING - SINGAPORE_SPENDING = 38% - 15%","latex":null,"sourceRef":"oecd-govt-spending","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-spending.htm","stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":23},"US_VS_SWITZERLAND_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_GAP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/optimocracy.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Life expectancy gap: Switzerland vs US. Switzerland achieves 6.5 extra years of life while spending 3% LESS of GDP on government.","displayName":"Switzerland-US Life Expectancy Gap","formatted":"6.5 years","formula":"SWITZERLAND_LE - US_LE = 84.0 - 77.5","latex":null,"sourceRef":"who-life-expectancy","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates/ghe-life-expectancy-and-healthy-life-expectancy","stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":6.5},"US_VS_SWITZERLAND_SPENDING_GAP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/optimocracy.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Government spending gap: US spends 3 percentage points MORE of GDP than Switzerland yet achieves worse outcomes.","displayName":"US-Switzerland Spending Gap","formatted":"300.0%","formula":"US_SPENDING - SWITZERLAND_SPENDING = 38% - 35%","latex":null,"sourceRef":"oecd-govt-spending","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-spending.htm","stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":3},"VICTORY_BOND_FUNDING_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-protocol-v1.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Percentage of captured dividend funding VICTORY Incentive Alignment Bonds (10%)","displayName":"Percentage of Captured Dividend Funding VICTORY Incentive Alignment Bonds","formatted":"10.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.1},"WAR_AVG_YEARS_LIFE_LOST_PER_DEATH":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[20,35],"conservative":null,"description":"Average years of life lost per war/conflict death. Based on avg age at death ~28 (soldiers ~23, civilians older) vs mid-century life expectancy ~55.","displayName":"Average Years of Life Lost per War Death","formatted":"27 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"necrometrics-20th-century","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://necrometrics.com/all20c.htm","stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":27},"WAR_CHILD_DEATH_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[0.25,0.4],"conservative":null,"description":"Estimated share of war deaths since 1900 that were children under 18. Constructed from category-weighted estimates: combat ~3%, civilian ~35%, genocide ~33%, famine ~60%. Conservative aggregate ~33%. Sources: de Waal 2017 (famine child mortality), APA 2001 (civilian child share).","displayName":"Child Share of War Deaths Since 1900","formatted":"33.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"de-waal-famine-child-mortality-2018","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2017.09.004","stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.33},"WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_ANNUAL_GROWTH_BOOST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[0.0165,0.0355],"conservative":null,"description":"Stacked annual growth boost from 8 non-overlapping war channels. Ch1: productive reallocation 0.8-1.5pp (budget + innovation merged). Ch2: preserved capital 0.2-0.4pp. Ch3: population 0.2-0.4pp. Ch4: no trade drag 0.1-0.3pp. Ch5: no environmental damage 0.1-0.2pp. Ch6: no Cold War isolation 0.1-0.3pp. Ch7: better institutions 0.1-0.3pp. Ch8: open scientific collaboration 0.05-0.15pp. Low 1.65pp, mid 2.6pp, high 3.55pp.","displayName":"Peace Growth Boost (8 Channels, Overlap-Corrected)","formatted":"0.026 percentage points","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"costa-rica-peace-dividend","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00220388.2024.2445533","stdError":null,"unit":"percentage points","value":0.026},"WAR_DEATHS_SINCE_1900":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[200000000,340000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Total deaths from wars, conflicts, genocides, and policy-induced famines since 1900. Built from non-overlapping categories: Rummel democide 264M (incl 21st century) + battle deaths 39M + collateral civilian deaths 30M - overlap adjustment 25M = 308M, rounded to 310M. Range: White low 200M to Rummel-high-plus-military 340M.","displayName":"Total War and Conflict Deaths Since 1900","formatted":"310.00M deaths","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"leitenberg-deaths-wars-2006","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/20060800_cdsp_occ_leitenberg.pdf","stdError":null,"unit":"deaths","value":310000000},"WAR_ENVIRONMENTAL_DESTRUCTION_SINCE_1900":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[2000000000000,10000000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative environmental destruction from wars since 1900 (2024 USD). Nuclear testing, Agent Orange, Gulf War oil fires, DU contamination, Zone Rouge, military CO2 emissions, land mines.","displayName":"Cumulative Environmental Destruction from War Since 1900","formatted":"$5.00T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"brown-costs-of-war-environmental","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://costsofwar.watson.brown.edu/costs/environmental","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":5000000000000},"WAR_MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_PRIZE_BUDGET":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[5000000000000,50000000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Aggressive prosecutor reserve for buying the missing medical toolchain: prizes, diagnostics, EHRs, sequencing, AI, factories, surveillance, and pragmatic-trial infrastructure before counting remaining money as direct trial capacity.","displayName":"War Medical Toolchain Prize Budget","formatted":"$20.00T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":20000000000000},"WAR_PROPERTY_DESTRUCTION_SINCE_1900":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[30000000000000,60000000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative property and infrastructure destruction from major wars since 1900 (2024 USD). WWI ~$5T, WWII ~$23T, Korea ~$0.5T, Vietnam ~$1T, post-9/11 ~$8T, other ~$7.5T.","displayName":"Cumulative Property Destruction from War Since 1900","formatted":"$45.00T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"harrison-economics-wwii","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/economics-of-world-war-ii/043CE9F3DC5036A731E5555C4A84E424","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":45000000000000},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_LAG_AFTER_DISEASE_CONTROL_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[10,65],"conservative":null,"description":"Additional lag after broad disease-control capacity before biological aging becomes a treatable risk factor in the aggressive prosecutor model. Fermi rationale: aging research requires the molecular biology toolchain (DNA structure, oncogenes, telomere biology, cellular senescence) which itself builds on the disease-control infrastructure. With investment proportional to funding and prizes accelerating iteration, the hallmarks-of-aging framework (telomeres, senolytics, mTOR) likely emerges ~15-20 years faster than the historical timeline -- but geroscience is genuinely downstream of molecular biology and cannot be fully parallelized with disease-control research. 40 years is the central estimate; confidence interval (10-65) is wide because this is the most speculative component of the model.","displayName":"War-Redirect Aging Lag After Disease Control","formatted":"40 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":40},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_PLEADING_END_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"End year for the aggressive prosecutor post-cutoff plaintiff count.","displayName":"War-Redirect Pleading End Year","formatted":"2,024 year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"year","value":2024},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_START_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Start year for the aggressive prosecutor medical redirect counterfactual.","displayName":"War-Redirect Medical Counterfactual Start Year","formatted":"1,900 year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"year","value":1900},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_TOOLCHAIN_BOOTSTRAP_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[0,40],"conservative":null,"description":"Estimated minimum physical build time for the medical toolchain even with 10x capital: diagnostics, cell culture, manufacturing scale-up, trained researchers, surveillance, and trial infrastructure. Fermi rationale: (1) scientific breakthroughs are treated as largely proportional to investment -- more money attracts talent from finance and other high-paying sectors, more researchers mean more parallel experiments and more shots on goal, so conceptual barriers are not treated as exogenous; (2) even so, a physical floor exists -- you cannot train a molecular biologist in a year or build a penicillin factory overnight regardless of capital; (3) prize-based and market-incentive funding is assumed, not NIH grant-style funding -- prizes pay for results, not process, yielding roughly 5-10x more useful output per dollar, making this estimate conservative relative to current NIH efficiency as a baseline; (4) Operation Warp Speed compressed a 10-15 year vaccine timeline to 9 months with advance purchase commitments -- ~15x acceleration -- suggesting the physical floor is around 12-18 months for known-science applications. 14 years reflects the harder case of building infrastructure for unknown-science applications from a 1900 starting point. Confidence interval (0-40) reflects genuine uncertainty; the central estimate is not reverse-engineered to hit any target year.","displayName":"War-Redirect Medical Toolchain Bootstrap Years","formatted":"14 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":14},"WISHOCRATIC_CROWD_ALPHA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/earth-optimization-prize-treasury.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0,0.015],"conservative":null,"description":"Allocation alpha from wishocratic sector- and manager-level capital routing. Crowds route capital across sectors and managers at least as well as cap-weighted indices or committee allocators. SPIVA shows 88% of active large-cap managers underperform their benchmark over 15 years; Preqin shows top-quartile vs bottom-quartile VC manager dispersion of 5-15%. The 0.5% central value assumes only that RAPPA avoids the bottom half of manager dispersion at the allocation level, not that it finds the top quartile. This is not a claim that crowds beat experts at picking individual companies; power-law outlier selection is the one thing crowds are empirically worse at than specialists.","displayName":"Wishocratic Crowd Allocation Alpha","formatted":"0.5%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.005},"_CASCADE_GENERATIONS":{"chapterUrl":null,"confidence":null,"confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":null,"displayName":"_CASCADE_GENERATIONS","formatted":"3","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":null,"sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":null,"value":3},"_R0":{"chapterUrl":null,"confidence":null,"confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":null,"displayName":"_R0","formatted":"0.15","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":null,"sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":null,"value":0.15},"_SOCIAL_NETWORK_POP":{"chapterUrl":null,"confidence":null,"confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":null,"displayName":"_SOCIAL_NETWORK_POP","formatted":"5.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":null,"sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":null,"value":5000000000},"_US_BASE_POLITICAL_SPENDING":{"chapterUrl":null,"confidence":null,"confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":null,"displayName":"_US_BASE_POLITICAL_SPENDING","formatted":"28.80B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":null,"sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":null,"value":28800000000}},"shareableSnippets":{},"sourceFile":"packages/data/src/parameters/parameters-calculations-citations.ts"},"cacheSeconds":3600,"generatedAt":"2026-07-05T05:30:06.804Z","contentHash":"sha256:b201288545b8f45d019634b917ecbc54268e038bb7480764c9f99c36df0d89ae"}