{"name":"1% Treaty parameter export","sourceUrls":["https://warondisease.org/treaty","https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.html"],"parameterSetHash":"sha256:b02e56bb25c71a30aa43112512ec0ea11acf650943ce23792e3366d8e681ae8e","parameterExport":{"citations":{"3-5-rule":{"author":"Harvard Kennedy School","id":"3-5-rule","note":"Harvard Kennedy School, The '3.5% rule': How a small minority can change the world | Chenoweth Research Paper (2020) | BBC Future, 2019, 'The 3.5% rule' | Wikipedia, 3.5% rule","quote":null,"source":"Harvard Kennedy School","title":"3.5% participation tipping point","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/carr/publications/35-rule-how-small-minority-can-change-world","urls":["https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/carr/publications/35-rule-how-small-minority-can-change-world"],"year":"2020"},"95-pct-diseases-no-treatment":{"author":"GAO","id":"95-pct-diseases-no-treatment","note":"GAO, 2025, Rare Disease Drugs: FDA Has Steps Underway to Strengthen Coordination | Global Genes, RARE Disease Facts | Note: Only 5% of 7,000+ rare diseases have FDA-approved treatments","quote":null,"source":"GAO","title":"95% of diseases have 0 FDA-approved treatments","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-106774","urls":["https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-106774"],"year":"2025"},"acled-active-combat-deaths":{"author":"ACLED","id":"acled-active-combat-deaths","note":"ACLED: Global Conflict Surged 2024 | Washington Post via ACLED | ACLED Conflict Index","quote":null,"source":"ACLED: Global Conflict Surged 2024","title":"Active combat deaths annually","type":"article-journal","url":"https://acleddata.com/2024/12/12/data-shows-global-conflict-surged-in-2024-the-washington-post/","urls":["https://acleddata.com/2024/12/12/data-shows-global-conflict-surged-in-2024-the-washington-post/"],"year":"2024"},"antidepressant-trial-exclusion-rates":{"author":"NIH","id":"antidepressant-trial-exclusion-rates","note":"Zimmerman et al., Mayo Clinic Proceedings, 2015 | Preskorn et al., Journal of Psychiatric Practice, 2015 | Wolters Kluwer: Antidepressant Trials Exclude Most Real World Patients","quote":null,"source":"Zimmerman et al.","title":"Antidepressant clinical trial exclusion rates","type":"article-journal","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26276679/","urls":["https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26276679/"],"year":"2015"},"bio-clinical-development-2021":{"author":"Biotechnology Innovation Organization (BIO)","id":"bio-clinical-development-2021","note":"Biotechnology Innovation Organization (BIO), 2021, Clinical Development Success Rates and Contributing Factors 2011-2020","quote":null,"source":"Biotechnology Innovation Organization (BIO)","title":"BIO Clinical Development Success Rates 2011-2020","type":"article-journal","url":"https://go.bio.org/rs/490-EHZ-999/images/ClinicalDevelopmentSuccessRates2011_2020.pdf","urls":["https://go.bio.org/rs/490-EHZ-999/images/ClinicalDevelopmentSuccessRates2011_2020.pdf"],"year":"2021"},"bls-cpi-inflation-calculator":{"author":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics","id":"bls-cpi-inflation-calculator","note":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2024, CPI Inflation Calculator","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"CPI Inflation Calculator","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm","urls":["https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm"],"year":"2024"},"brown-costs-of-war-environmental":{"author":"Watson Institute, Brown University","id":"brown-costs-of-war-environmental","note":null,"quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Environmental Costs of War","type":"webpage","url":"https://costsofwar.watson.brown.edu/costs/environmental","urls":["https://costsofwar.watson.brown.edu/costs/environmental"],"year":"2023"},"cbo-long-term-budget-2024":{"author":"CBO","id":"cbo-long-term-budget-2024","note":"Net interest: \\$888 billion in 2024","quote":null,"source":"Congressional Budget Office","title":"The 2024 Long-Term Budget Outlook","type":"report","url":"https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60039","urls":["https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60039"],"year":"2024"},"cdc-life-expectancy":{"author":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","id":"cdc-life-expectancy","note":"CDC, 2024, Life Expectancy","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"US Life Expectancy 2023","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/life-expectancy.htm","urls":["https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/life-expectancy.htm"],"year":"2024"},"census-income-2023":{"author":"US Census Bureau","id":"census-income-2023","note":"US Census Bureau, 2024, Income in the United States: 2023","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"US Median Household Income 2023","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2024/demo/p60-282.html","urls":["https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2024/demo/p60-282.html"],"year":"2024"},"chance-of-dying-from-terrorism-1-in-30m":{"author":"Cato Institute","id":"chance-of-dying-from-terrorism-1-in-30m","note":"Cato Institute: Terrorism and Immigration Risk Analysis | NBC News: Lightning vs Terrorism","quote":null,"source":"Cato Institute: Terrorism and Immigration Risk Analysis","title":"Chance of dying from terrorism statistic","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/terrorism-immigration-risk-analysis","urls":["https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/terrorism-immigration-risk-analysis"],"year":null},"childhood-vaccination-economic-benefits":{"author":"CDC MMWR","id":"childhood-vaccination-economic-benefits","note":"CDC MMWR, Childhood Immunizations 1994-2023 | The Lancet, 50 Years of Expanded Programme on Immunization | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)00850-X/fulltext","quote":null,"source":"CDC MMWR","title":"Childhood vaccination economic benefits","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/wr/mm7331a2.htm","urls":["https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/wr/mm7331a2.htm"],"year":"1994"},"childhood-vaccination-roi":{"author":"CDC","id":"childhood-vaccination-roi","note":"CDC, Link | Vaxopedia, Link","quote":null,"source":"CDC","title":"Childhood Vaccination (US) ROI","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6316a4.htm","urls":["https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6316a4.htm"],"year":"2017"},"chronic-illness-workforce-productivity-loss":{"author":"Integrated Benefits Institute","id":"chronic-illness-workforce-productivity-loss","note":"Integrated Benefits Institute 2024, Chronic Conditions in US Workforce | One Medical 2024, Study on Chronic Conditions | de Beaumont Foundation 2025, Poll on Chronic Health Conditions","quote":null,"source":"Integrated Benefits Institute 2024","title":"Chronic illness workforce productivity loss","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.ibiweb.org/resources/chronic-conditions-in-the-us-workforce-prevalence-trends-and-productivity-impacts","urls":["https://www.ibiweb.org/resources/chronic-conditions-in-the-us-workforce-prevalence-trends-and-productivity-impacts"],"year":"2024"},"clean-water-sanitation-roi":{"author":"UN News","id":"clean-water-sanitation-roi","note":"UN News, Link | WaterAid, Link","quote":null,"source":"UN News","title":"Clean Water & Sanitation (LMICs) ROI","type":"article-journal","url":"https://news.un.org/en/story/2014/11/484032","urls":["https://news.un.org/en/story/2014/11/484032"],"year":"2014"},"clinical-trial-abandonment-rate":{"author":"Williams, Rebecca J and Tse, Tony and DiPiazza, Katelyn and Zarin, Deborah A","id":"clinical-trial-abandonment-rate","note":"Analysis of 7,646 trials in ClinicalTrials.gov results database as of February 2013","quote":null,"source":"PLOS One","title":"Terminated Trials in the ClinicalTrials.gov Results Database: Evaluation of Availability of Primary Outcome Data and Reasons for Termination","type":"article-journal","url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4444136/","urls":["https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4444136/"],"year":"2015"},"clinical-trial-patient-participation-rate":{"author":"ACS CAN","id":"clinical-trial-patient-participation-rate","note":"ACS CAN: Barriers to Clinical Trial Enrollment | HINTS: Clinical Trial Participation","quote":null,"source":"ACS CAN: Barriers to Clinical Trial Enrollment","title":"Clinical trial patient participation rate","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.fightcancer.org/policy-resources/barriers-patient-enrollment-therapeutic-clinical-trials-cancer","urls":["https://www.fightcancer.org/policy-resources/barriers-patient-enrollment-therapeutic-clinical-trials-cancer"],"year":null},"clinical-trials-puzzle-interactome":{"author":"PMC","id":"clinical-trials-puzzle-interactome","note":"PMC, 2023, The Clinical Trials Puzzle","quote":null,"source":"PMC","title":"Only ~12% of human interactome targeted","type":"article-journal","url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10749231/","urls":["https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10749231/"],"year":"2023"},"clinicaltrials-gov-enrollment-data-2025":{"author":"ClinicalTrials.gov API v2 direct analysis","id":"clinicaltrials-gov-enrollment-data-2025","note":"Direct analysis via ClinicalTrials.gov API v2","quote":null,"source":"Direct analysis via ClinicalTrials.gov API v2","title":"ClinicalTrials.gov cumulative enrollment data (2025)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/data-api/api","urls":["https://clinicaltrials.gov/data-api/api"],"year":null},"correlates-of-war-nmc":{"author":"Correlates of War Project","id":"correlates-of-war-nmc","note":"National Material Capabilities v6.0; military expenditure series 1816-2016 used as the source for pre-SIPRI historical military spending. Original methodology: Singer, J. David, Stuart Bremer, and John Stuckey (1972), \"Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War, 1820-1965,\" in Bruce Russett (ed) Peace, War, and Numbers, Beverly Hills: Sage, 19-48.","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"National Material Capabilities (NMC) Dataset","type":"webpage","url":"https://correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/national-material-capabilities/","urls":["https://correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/national-material-capabilities/"],"year":"2017"},"costa-rica-peace-dividend":{"author":"Barrios, Dagoberto and Sanz-Gracia, Fernando","id":"costa-rica-peace-dividend","note":null,"quote":null,"source":"Journal of Development Studies","title":"A Farewell to Arms: The Peace Dividend of Costa Rica's Army Abolition","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00220388.2024.2445533","urls":["https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00220388.2024.2445533"],"year":"2024"},"crs-crispr-nih-funding-2011-2018":{"author":"Congressional Research Service","id":"crs-crispr-nih-funding-2011-2018","note":"Table 1 reports NIH CRISPR-related funding totaling \\$3,083,419,930 for FY2011-FY2018.","quote":null,"source":"Congressional Research Service","title":"Advanced Gene Editing: CRISPR-Cas9","type":"report","url":"https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/R/PDF/R44824/R44824.7.pdf","urls":["https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/R/PDF/R44824/R44824.7.pdf"],"year":"2018"},"cs-global-wealth-report-2023":{"author":"UBS","id":"cs-global-wealth-report-2023","note":"Credit Suisse/UBS, 2023, Global Wealth Report 2023","quote":null,"source":"Credit Suisse/UBS","title":"Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report 2023","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.ubs.com/global/en/family-office-uhnw/reports/global-wealth-report-2023.html","urls":["https://www.ubs.com/global/en/family-office-uhnw/reports/global-wealth-report-2023.html"],"year":"2023"},"cybercrime-economy-10-5t":{"author":"Cybersecurity Ventures","id":"cybercrime-economy-10-5t","note":"Cybersecurity Ventures: \\$10.5T Cybercrime | Boise State: Cybercrime Costs","quote":null,"source":"Cybersecurity Ventures: \\$10.5T Cybercrime","title":"Cybercrime economy projected to reach \\$10.5 trillion","type":"article-journal","url":"https://cybersecurityventures.com/hackerpocalypse-cybercrime-report-2016/","urls":["https://cybersecurityventures.com/hackerpocalypse-cybercrime-report-2016/"],"year":"2016"},"de-waal-famine-child-mortality-2018":{"author":"de Waal, Alex","id":"de-waal-famine-child-mortality-2018","note":null,"quote":null,"source":"Political Geography","title":"The End of Famine? Prospects for the Elimination of Mass Starvation by Political Action","type":"article-journal","url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2017.09.004","urls":["https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2017.09.004"],"year":"2018"},"deworming-cost-per-daly":{"author":"GiveWell","id":"deworming-cost-per-daly","note":"GiveWell: Cost-Effectiveness in $/DALY for Deworming","quote":null,"source":"GiveWell: Cost-Effectiveness in $/DALY for Deworming","title":"Cost per DALY for Deworming Programs","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/deworming/cost-effectiveness","urls":["https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/deworming/cost-effectiveness"],"year":null},"disease-cost-alzheimers-1300b":{"author":"WHO","id":"disease-cost-alzheimers-1300b","note":"WHO: Dementia Fact Sheet | Alzheimer's & Dementia: Worldwide Costs 2019","quote":null,"source":"WHO: Dementia Fact Sheet","title":"Annual global economic burden of Alzheimer's and other dementias","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/dementia","urls":["https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/dementia"],"year":"2019"},"disease-cost-cancer-1800b":{"author":"JAMA Oncology","id":"disease-cost-cancer-1800b","note":"JAMA Oncology: Global Cost 2020-2050 | Nature: \\$25T Over 30 Years","quote":null,"source":"JAMA Oncology: Global Cost 2020-2050","title":"Annual global economic burden of cancer","type":"article-journal","url":"https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaoncology/fullarticle/2801798","urls":["https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaoncology/fullarticle/2801798"],"year":"2020"},"disease-cost-diabetes-1500b":{"author":"Diabetes Care","id":"disease-cost-diabetes-1500b","note":"Diabetes Care: Global Economic Burden | Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol: Global economic burden of diabetes in adults aged 20-79 years","quote":null,"source":"Diabetes Care: Global Economic Burden","title":"Annual global economic burden of diabetes","type":"article-journal","url":"https://diabetesjournals.org/care/article/41/5/963/36522/Global-Economic-Burden-of-Diabetes-in-Adults","urls":["https://diabetesjournals.org/care/article/41/5/963/36522/Global-Economic-Burden-of-Diabetes-in-Adults"],"year":null},"disease-cost-heart-disease-2100b":{"author":"Cook, Christopher and Cole, Graham and Asaria, Perviz and Jabbour, Richard and Francis, Darrel P.","id":"disease-cost-heart-disease-2100b","note":"International Journal of Cardiology: The annual global economic burden of heart failure | AHA: US CVD Costs to 2050","quote":null,"source":"International Journal of Cardiology","title":"Annual global economic burden of heart disease","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.internationaljournalofcardiology.com/article/S0167-5273(13)02238-9/abstract","urls":["https://www.internationaljournalofcardiology.com/article/S0167-5273(13)02238-9/abstract"],"year":"2014"},"disease-economic-burden-109t":{"author":"Calculated from IHME Global Burden of Disease (2.55B DALYs) and global GDP per capita valuation","id":"disease-economic-burden-109t","note":"Calculated from IHME Global Burden of Disease (2.55B DALYs) and global GDP per capita valuation","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"\\$109 trillion annual global disease burden","type":"webpage","url":null,"urls":[],"year":null},"disease-prevalence-2-billion":{"author":"ScienceDaily","id":"disease-prevalence-2-billion","note":"ScienceDaily: GBD 2015 Study | PMC: Burden of Chronic Disease | PMC: Multiple Chronic Conditions","quote":null,"source":"ScienceDaily: GBD 2015 Study","title":"Global prevalence of chronic disease","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/06/150608081753.htm","urls":["https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/06/150608081753.htm"],"year":"2015"},"diseases-getting-first-treatment-annually":{"author":"Calculated from Orphanet Journal of Rare Diseases (2024)","id":"diseases-getting-first-treatment-annually","note":"Calculated from Orphanet Journal of Rare Diseases (2024), FDA Novel Drug Approvals data","quote":null,"source":"Calculated from Orphanet Journal of Rare Diseases (2024)","title":"Diseases Getting First Effective Treatment Each Year","type":"article-journal","url":"https://ojrd.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13023-024-03398-1","urls":["https://ojrd.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13023-024-03398-1"],"year":"2024"},"disparity-ratio-weapons-vs-cures":{"author":"SIPRI","id":"disparity-ratio-weapons-vs-cures","note":"SIPRI: Military Spending | PMC: Military vs Healthcare Crowding Out | Congress.gov: Global R&D Landscape","quote":null,"source":"SIPRI: Military Spending","title":"36:1 disparity ratio of spending on weapons over cures","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.sipri.org/commentary/blog/2016/opportunity-cost-world-military-spending","urls":["https://www.sipri.org/commentary/blog/2016/opportunity-cost-world-military-spending"],"year":"2016"},"doj-false-claims-act":{"author":"U.S. Department of Justice","id":"doj-false-claims-act","note":"Official DOJ summary of the False Claims Act, including treble damages and civil penalties for false claims involving federal funds.","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"The False Claims Act","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.justice.gov/civil/false-claims-act","urls":["https://www.justice.gov/civil/false-claims-act"],"year":"2025"},"dot-vsl-13-6m":{"author":"DOT","id":"dot-vsl-13-6m","note":"DOT: VSL Guidance 2024 | DOT: Economic Values Used in Analysis","quote":null,"source":"DOT: VSL Guidance 2024","title":"DOT Value of Statistical Life (\\$13.6M)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/transportation-policy/revised-departmental-guidance-on-valuation-of-a-statistical-life-in-economic-analysis","urls":["https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/transportation-policy/revised-departmental-guidance-on-valuation-of-a-statistical-life-in-economic-analysis"],"year":"2024"},"dot-vsl-2024":{"author":"U.S. Department of Transportation","id":"dot-vsl-2024","note":"Current VSL: \\$13.7 million","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Departmental Guidance on Valuation of a Statistical Life in Economic Analysis","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/transportation-policy/revised-departmental-guidance-on-valuation-of-a-statistical-life-in-economic-analysis","urls":["https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/transportation-policy/revised-departmental-guidance-on-valuation-of-a-statistical-life-in-economic-analysis"],"year":"2024"},"drug-development-cost":{"author":"Tufts CSDD","id":"drug-development-cost","note":"Tufts CSDD | IQVIA | Deloitte","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Cost of drug development","type":"webpage","url":null,"urls":[],"year":null},"drug-repurposing-rate":{"author":"Nature Medicine","id":"drug-repurposing-rate","note":"Nature Medicine, 2024, Drug Repurposing Trends","quote":null,"source":"Nature Medicine","title":"Drug Repurposing Rate (~30%)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-03233-x","urls":["https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-03233-x"],"year":"2024"},"drug-trial-success-rate-12-pct":{"author":"Nature Reviews Drug Discovery","id":"drug-trial-success-rate-12-pct","note":"Nature Reviews Drug Discovery: Clinical Success Rates | PMC: Estimating Success Rates | Oxford Academic: Clinical Trial Success","quote":null,"source":"Nature Reviews Drug Discovery: Clinical Success Rates","title":"Drug trial success rate from Phase I to approval","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd.2016.136","urls":["https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd.2016.136"],"year":"2016"},"drugpolicyalliance2021":{"author":"Drug Policy Alliance","id":"drugpolicyalliance2021","note":null,"quote":null,"source":null,"title":"The Drug War by the Numbers","type":"webpage","url":"https://drugpolicy.org/drug-war-stats/","urls":["https://drugpolicy.org/drug-war-stats/"],"year":"2021"},"education-investment-economic-multiplier":{"author":"EPI","id":"education-investment-economic-multiplier","note":"EPI: Public Investments Outside Core Infrastructure | World Bank: Returns to Investment in Education | Freopp: Education ROI Framework","quote":null,"source":"EPI: Public Investments Outside Core Infrastructure","title":"Education investment economic multiplier (2.1)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.epi.org/publication/bp348-public-investments-outside-core-infrastructure/","urls":["https://www.epi.org/publication/bp348-public-investments-outside-core-infrastructure/"],"year":null},"environmental-cost-of-war":{"author":"Costs of War Project, Brown University Watson Institute","id":"environmental-cost-of-war","note":"Brown Watson Costs of War: Environmental Cost | Earth.Org: Environmental Impact of Wars | Transform Defence: Military Spending & Climate","quote":null,"source":"Brown Watson Costs of War: Environmental Cost","title":"Environmental cost of war (\\$100B annually)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/social/environment","urls":["https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/social/environment"],"year":null},"ewg-farm-subsidies":{"author":"Environmental Working Group","id":"ewg-farm-subsidies","note":"Environmental Working Group, Farm Subsidy Database | USDA Economic Research Service, Agricultural Subsidies","quote":null,"source":"Environmental Working Group","title":"US Farm Subsidy Database and Analysis","type":"article-journal","url":"https://farm.ewg.org/","urls":["https://farm.ewg.org/"],"year":"2024"},"fda-approved-products-20k":{"author":"FDA","id":"fda-approved-products-20k","note":"FDA, Facts About Generic Drugs","quote":null,"source":"FDA","title":"FDA-approved prescription drug products (20,000+)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.fda.gov/media/143704/download","urls":["https://www.fda.gov/media/143704/download"],"year":null},"fda-gras-list-count":{"author":"FDA","id":"fda-gras-list-count","note":"FDA, GRAS Notice Inventory","quote":null,"source":"FDA","title":"FDA GRAS List Count (~570-700)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.fda.gov/food/generally-recognized-safe-gras/gras-notice-inventory","urls":["https://www.fda.gov/food/generally-recognized-safe-gras/gras-notice-inventory"],"year":null},"fec-2024-summary":{"author":"Federal Election Commission","id":"fec-2024-summary","note":"Federal Election Commission, Statistical Summary of 24-Month Campaign Activity","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Statistical Summary of 24-Month Campaign Activity of the 2023-2024 Election Cycle","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.fec.gov/updates/statistical-summary-of-24-month-campaign-activity-of-the-2023-2024-election-cycle/","urls":["https://www.fec.gov/updates/statistical-summary-of-24-month-campaign-activity-of-the-2023-2024-election-cycle/"],"year":"2023"},"forbes-billionaires-2024":{"author":"Forbes","id":"forbes-billionaires-2024","note":"38th annual Forbes billionaires list, published April 2, 2024","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Forbes World's Billionaires List 2024","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/","urls":["https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/"],"year":"2024"},"gbd-disability-weights":{"author":"GBD 2019 Diseases and Injuries Collaborators","id":"gbd-disability-weights","note":null,"quote":null,"source":"The Lancet","title":"Global Burden of Disease Study 2019: Disability Weights","type":"article-journal","url":"https://ghdx.healthdata.org/record/ihme-data/gbd-2019-disability-weights","urls":["https://ghdx.healthdata.org/record/ihme-data/gbd-2019-disability-weights"],"year":"2020"},"givewell-cost-per-life-saved":{"author":"GiveWell","id":"givewell-cost-per-life-saved","note":"GiveWell: Top Charities | GiveWell: Helen Keller Vitamin A | Our World in Data: Cost-Effectiveness","quote":null,"source":"GiveWell: Top Charities","title":"GiveWell Cost per Life Saved for Top Charities (2024)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities","urls":["https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities"],"year":null},"global-clinical-trials-market-2024":{"author":"Research and Markets","id":"global-clinical-trials-market-2024","note":"Research and Markets, Global Clinical Trials Market Report 2024 | Precedence Research, Clinical Trials Market Size","quote":null,"source":"Research and Markets","title":"Global clinical trials market 2024","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/04/19/2866012/0/en/Global-Clinical-Trials-Market-Research-Report-2024-An-83-16-Billion-Market-by-2030-AI-Machine-Learning-and-Blockchain-will-Transform-the-Clinical-Trials-Landscape.html","urls":["https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/04/19/2866012/0/en/Global-Clinical-Trials-Market-Research-Report-2024-An-83-16-Billion-Market-by-2030-AI-Machine-Learning-and-Blockchain-will-Transform-the-Clinical-Trials-Landscape.html"],"year":"2024"},"global-gov-med-research-spending":{"author":"Component country budgets","id":"global-gov-med-research-spending","note":"See component country budgets: NIH Budget, China R&D, EU Horizon Health","quote":null,"source":"See component country budgets: NIH Budget","title":"Global government medical research spending (\\$67.5B, 2023–2024)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/what-we-do/budget","urls":["https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/what-we-do/budget"],"year":null},"global-government-clinical-trial-spending-estimate":{"author":"Applied Clinical Trials","id":"global-government-clinical-trial-spending-estimate","note":"Applied Clinical Trials | Lancet Global Health | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30357-0/fulltext","quote":null,"source":"Applied Clinical Trials","title":"Global government spending on interventional clinical trials: ~\\$3-6 billion/year","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.appliedclinicaltrialsonline.com/view/sizing-clinical-research-market","urls":["https://www.appliedclinicaltrialsonline.com/view/sizing-clinical-research-market"],"year":null},"global-median-age-un-wpp-2024":{"author":"United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division","id":"global-median-age-un-wpp-2024","note":"UN WPP 2024. Global median age 30.5 years (2024 estimate). Worldometers reports 31.1 for 2026 based on same data.","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results","type":"webpage","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp","urls":["https://population.un.org/wpp"],"year":"2024"},"global-military-spending":{"author":"SIPRI","id":"global-military-spending","note":"SIPRI, 2025, Trends in World Military Expenditure 2024","quote":null,"source":"SIPRI","title":"Global military spending (\\$2.72T, 2024)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2024","urls":["https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2024"],"year":"2025"},"global-new-drug-approvals-50-annually":{"author":"C&EN","id":"global-new-drug-approvals-50-annually","note":"C&EN, 2025, 50 new drugs received FDA approval in 2024 | FDA, Novel Drug Approvals | Note: Average ~50 per year 2018-2024; 32 small molecules + 18 biologics in 2024","quote":null,"source":"C&EN","title":"Annual number of new drugs approved globally: ~50","type":"article-journal","url":"https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/50-new-drugs-received-FDA/103/i2","urls":["https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/50-new-drugs-received-FDA/103/i2"],"year":"2025"},"global-nuclear-weapon-maintenance-100b":{"author":"ICAN","id":"global-nuclear-weapon-maintenance-100b","note":"ICAN: Global Spending \\$100B 2024 | ICAN: The Cost of Nuclear Weapons","quote":null,"source":"ICAN: Global Spending \\$100B 2024","title":"Global nuclear weapon maintenance cost: \\$100 billion/year","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.icanw.org/global_spending_on_nuclear_weapons_topped_100_billion_in_2024","urls":["https://www.icanw.org/global_spending_on_nuclear_weapons_topped_100_billion_in_2024"],"year":"2024"},"global-pharma-rd-spending-300b":{"author":"Industry reports: IQVIA","id":"global-pharma-rd-spending-300b","note":"Industry reports: IQVIA, EvaluatePharma, PhRMA","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Global pharmaceutical R&D spending","type":"webpage","url":null,"urls":[],"year":null},"global-population-8-billion":{"author":"UN","id":"global-population-8-billion","note":"UN: World Population 8 Billion Nov 15 2022 | UN: Day of 8 Billion | Wikipedia: Day of Eight Billion","quote":null,"source":"UN: World Population 8 Billion Nov 15 2022","title":"Global population reaches 8 billion","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-reach-8-billion-15-november-2022","urls":["https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-reach-8-billion-15-november-2022"],"year":"2022"},"global-trial-participant-capacity":{"author":"IQVIA Report","id":"global-trial-participant-capacity","note":"IQVIA Report: Clinical Trial Subjects Number Drops Due to Decline in COVID-19 Enrollment","quote":null,"source":"IQVIA Report: Clinical Trial Subjects Number Drops Due to Decline in COVID-19 Enrollment","title":"Global trial capacity","type":"article-journal","url":"https://gmdpacademy.org/news/iqvia-report-clinical-trial-subjects-number-drops-due-to-decline-in-covid-19-enrollment/","urls":["https://gmdpacademy.org/news/iqvia-report-clinical-trial-subjects-number-drops-due-to-decline-in-covid-19-enrollment/"],"year":null},"gtd-terror-attack-deaths":{"author":"Our World in Data","id":"gtd-terror-attack-deaths","note":"Our World in Data: Terrorism | Global Terrorism Index 2024 | START Global Terrorism Database | Our World in Data: Terrorism Deaths","quote":null,"source":"Our World in Data: Terrorism","title":"Terror attack deaths (8,300 annually)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://ourworldindata.org/terrorism","urls":["https://ourworldindata.org/terrorism"],"year":"2024"},"harrison-economics-wwii":{"author":"Harrison, Mark","id":"harrison-economics-wwii","note":"Comprehensive economic analysis of six major belligerents (US, UK, Germany, USSR, Japan, Italy). Combined military spending across all belligerents approximately \\$1,301 billion in wartime dollars. Peak military burdens: Japan 76% of GDP, Germany 70%, USSR 61%, UK 53%, US 40%.","quote":null,"source":"Cambridge University Press","title":"The Economics of World War II: Six Great Powers in International Comparison","type":"book","url":"https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/economics-of-world-war-ii/043CE9F3DC5036A731E5555C4A84E424","urls":["https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/economics-of-world-war-ii/043CE9F3DC5036A731E5555C4A84E424"],"year":"2000"},"healthcare-investment-economic-multiplier":{"author":"PMC","id":"healthcare-investment-economic-multiplier","note":"PMC: California Universal Health Care | CEPR: Government Investment | PMC: Health Sector Investment & Growth | ODI: Fiscal Multipliers Review","quote":null,"source":"PMC: California Universal Health Care","title":"Healthcare investment economic multiplier (1.8)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5954824/","urls":["https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5954824/"],"year":"2022"},"hitech-ehr-incentive-estimated-spending":{"author":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","id":"hitech-ehr-incentive-estimated-spending","note":"GAO states Medicare and Medicaid EHR incentive program spending was estimated to total \\$30 billion from 2011 through 2019.","quote":null,"source":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","title":"Electronic Health Records: First Year of CMS's Incentive Programs Shows Opportunities to Improve Processes to Verify Providers Met Requirements","type":"report","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-12-481","urls":["https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-12-481"],"year":"2012"},"hsieh-moretti2019":{"author":"Hsieh, Chang-Tai and Moretti, Enrico","id":"hsieh-moretti2019","note":"Hsieh & Moretti, 2019, AEJ:Macro | Highly cited - one of most influential papers in urban economics","quote":null,"source":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","title":"Housing Constraints and Spatial Misallocation","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20170388","urls":["https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20170388"],"year":"2019"},"human-genome-and-genetic-editing":{"author":"NHGRI","id":"human-genome-and-genetic-editing","note":"NHGRI, International Consortium Completes Human Genome Project | Nobel Prize, The Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2020 | Note: HGP cost ~\\$2.7B; CRISPR discovered by Doudna & Charpentier in 2012","quote":null,"source":"NHGRI","title":"Human Genome Project and CRISPR Discovery","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.genome.gov/11006929/2003-release-international-consortium-completes-hgp","urls":["https://www.genome.gov/11006929/2003-release-international-consortium-completes-hgp"],"year":"2003"},"icbl-ottawa-treaty":{"author":"ICRC","id":"icbl-ottawa-treaty","note":"ICRC, Ottawa Treaty History | Wikipedia, International Campaign to Ban Landmines | Nobel Prize, 1997 Peace Prize | UN Press, ICBL Press Conference 1999 | Landmine Monitor, Mine Action Funding","quote":null,"source":"ICRC","title":"International Campaign to Ban Landmines (ICBL) - Ottawa Treaty (1997)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/resources/documents/article/other/57jpjn.htm","urls":["https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/resources/documents/article/other/57jpjn.htm"],"year":"1997"},"icd-10-code-count":{"author":"WHO","id":"icd-10-code-count","note":"WHO, ICD-10 Browser","quote":null,"source":"WHO","title":"ICD-10 Code Count (~14,000)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://icd.who.int/browse10/2019/en","urls":["https://icd.who.int/browse10/2019/en"],"year":"2019"},"ihme-gbd-2021":{"author":"Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)","id":"ihme-gbd-2021","note":"Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), GBD Results Tool | The Lancet, 2024, Global burden of 371 diseases and injuries, and 87 risk factors, in 204 countries, 2000-2021 | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)00757-8/fulltext | IHME, Global Burden of Disease Study 2021","quote":null,"source":"Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)","title":"IHME Global Burden of Disease 2021 (2.88B DALYs, 1.13B YLD)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/","urls":["https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/"],"year":"2024"},"imf-fossilfuel2023":{"author":"International Monetary Fund","id":"imf-fossilfuel2023","note":null,"quote":null,"source":null,"title":"IMF Fossil Fuel Subsidies Data: 2023 Update","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/08/24/fossil-fuel-subsidies-surged-to-record-7-trillion","urls":["https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/08/24/fossil-fuel-subsidies-surged-to-record-7-trillion"],"year":"2023"},"imf-singapore-spending":{"author":"International Monetary Fund","id":"imf-singapore-spending","note":"IMF, 2024, Singapore Country Data","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"IMF Singapore Government Spending Data","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/SGP","urls":["https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/SGP"],"year":"2024"},"industry-clinical-trial-spending-estimate":{"author":"Sinn, Mike P.","id":"industry-clinical-trial-spending-estimate","note":"Derived estimate using published market-sizing and funding-distribution sources. Supporting sources: https://www.appliedclinicaltrialsonline.com/view/sizing-clinical-research-market | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10349341/ | https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57126","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Private Industry Clinical Trial Spending Estimate","type":"webpage","url":"https://cost-of-change.warondisease.org","urls":["https://cost-of-change.warondisease.org"],"year":"2025"},"industry-vs-government-trial-spending-split":{"author":"Applied Clinical Trials","id":"industry-vs-government-trial-spending-split","note":"Applied Clinical Trials | TCTMD","quote":null,"source":"Applied Clinical Trials","title":"Industry vs. Government Clinical Trial Spending Split (90/10)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.appliedclinicaltrialsonline.com/view/sizing-clinical-research-market","urls":["https://www.appliedclinicaltrialsonline.com/view/sizing-clinical-research-market"],"year":null},"infrastructure-investment-economic-multiplier":{"author":"World Bank","id":"infrastructure-investment-economic-multiplier","note":"World Bank: Infrastructure Investment as Stimulus | Global Infrastructure Hub: Fiscal Multiplier | CEPR: Government Investment | Richmond Fed: Infrastructure Spending","quote":null,"source":"World Bank: Infrastructure Investment as Stimulus","title":"Infrastructure investment economic multiplier (1.6)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/ppps/effectiveness-infrastructure-investment-fiscal-stimulus-what-weve-learned","urls":["https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/ppps/effectiveness-infrastructure-investment-fiscal-stimulus-what-weve-learned"],"year":"2022"},"international-idea-voter-turnout-database-2026":{"author":"International IDEA","id":"international-idea-voter-turnout-database-2026","note":"International IDEA Voter Turnout Database export plus methodology page","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"International IDEA Voter Turnout Database world export","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.idea.int/data-tools/export?type=region_only&themeId=293&world=all&loc=home","urls":["https://www.idea.int/data-tools/export?type=region_only&themeId=293&world=all&loc=home"],"year":"2026"},"iqvia-global-medicines-2024":{"author":"IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science","id":"iqvia-global-medicines-2024","note":null,"quote":null,"source":"IQVIA Institute Report","title":"The Global Use of Medicines 2024: Outlook to 2028","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.iqvia.com/insights/the-iqvia-institute/reports-and-publications/reports/the-global-use-of-medicines-2024-outlook-to-2028","urls":["https://www.iqvia.com/insights/the-iqvia-institute/reports-and-publications/reports/the-global-use-of-medicines-2024-outlook-to-2028"],"year":"2024"},"leitenberg-deaths-wars-2006":{"author":"Leitenberg, Milton","id":"leitenberg-deaths-wars-2006","note":null,"quote":null,"source":"Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)","title":"Deaths in Wars and Conflicts in the 20th Century","type":"report","url":"https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/20060800_cdsp_occ_leitenberg.pdf","urls":["https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/20060800_cdsp_occ_leitenberg.pdf"],"year":"2006"},"lichtenberg-life-years-saved-2019":{"author":"Lichtenberg, Frank R.","id":"lichtenberg-life-years-saved-2019","note":null,"quote":null,"source":"International Health","title":"How Many Life-Years Have New Drugs Saved? A Three-Way Fixed-Effects Analysis of 66 Diseases in 27 Countries, 2000-2013","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.nber.org/papers/w25483","urls":["https://www.nber.org/papers/w25483"],"year":"2019"},"life-expectancy-gains-smoking-reduction":{"author":"PMC","id":"life-expectancy-gains-smoking-reduction","note":"PMC: Benefits Smoking Cessation Longevity | CDC: Estimating Benefits Smoking Reductions | AJPM: Benefits Quitting Different Ages | https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(24)00217-4/fulltext | NEJM: 21st-Century Hazards & Benefits","quote":null,"source":"PMC: Benefits Smoking Cessation Longevity","title":"Contribution of smoking reduction to life expectancy gains","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1447499/","urls":["https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1447499/"],"year":"2012"},"life-expectancy-increase-pre-1962":{"author":"Source: US Life Expectancy FDA Budget 1543-2019 CSV","id":"life-expectancy-increase-pre-1962","note":"Source: US Life Expectancy FDA Budget 1543-2019 CSV | Our World in Data: Life Expectancy | Primary sources: Human Mortality Database (historical), CDC NCHS National Vital Statistics (modern)","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"US life expectancy growth 1880-1960: 3.82 years per decade","type":"webpage","url":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/data/us-life-expectancy-fda-budget-1543-2019.csv","urls":["https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/data/us-life-expectancy-fda-budget-1543-2019.csv"],"year":"2019"},"lobbying-spend-defense":{"author":"OpenSecrets","id":"lobbying-spend-defense","note":"OpenSecrets, 2024, Defense Lobbying","quote":null,"source":"OpenSecrets","title":"Lobbying Spend (Defense)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/lobbying?ind=D","urls":["https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/lobbying?ind=D"],"year":"2024"},"lobbyist-statistics-dc":{"author":"OpenSecrets","id":"lobbyist-statistics-dc","note":"OpenSecrets: Lobbying in US | OpenSecrets: Revolving Door | Citizen.org: Revolving Congress | ProPublica: 281 Lobbyists Trump Admin","quote":null,"source":"OpenSecrets: Lobbying in US","title":"Lobbyist statistics for Washington D.C.","type":"article-journal","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lobbying_in_the_United_States","urls":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lobbying_in_the_United_States"],"year":null},"longevity-escape-velocity":{"author":"Wikipedia","id":"longevity-escape-velocity","note":"Wikipedia: Longevity Escape Velocity | PMC: Escape Velocity - Why Life Extension Matters Now | Popular Mechanics: Can Science Cure Death? | Diamandis: Longevity Escape Velocity","quote":null,"source":"Wikipedia: Longevity Escape Velocity","title":"Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) - Maximum Human Life Extension Potential","type":"article-journal","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity","urls":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity"],"year":null},"lost-human-capital-war-cost":{"author":"Think by Numbers","id":"lost-human-capital-war-cost","note":"Think by Numbers: War Costs \\$74,259/Lifetime | WEF: War Violence Costs \\$5/Day | PubMed: Economic Value DALYs Violence","quote":null,"source":"Think by Numbers","title":"Lost human capital due to war (\\$270B annually)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://thinkbynumbers.org/military/war/the-economic-case-for-peace-a-comprehensive-financial-analysis/","urls":["https://thinkbynumbers.org/military/war/the-economic-case-for-peace-a-comprehensive-financial-analysis/"],"year":"2021"},"maddison-project-2020":{"author":"Bolt, Jutta and van Zanden, Jan Luiten","id":"maddison-project-2020","note":null,"quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Maddison Project Database 2020","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2020","urls":["https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2020"],"year":"2020"},"measles-vaccination-roi":{"author":"MDPI Vaccines","id":"measles-vaccination-roi","note":"MDPI Vaccines, 2024, Health and Economic Benefits of US Measles and Rubella Control | Taylor & Francis, 2024, Economic Evaluation of Second MCV Dose","quote":null,"source":"MDPI Vaccines","title":"Measles Vaccination ROI","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/12/11/1210","urls":["https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/12/11/1210"],"year":"2024"},"medical-research-lives-saved-annually":{"author":"ScienceDaily","id":"medical-research-lives-saved-annually","note":"ScienceDaily: Physical Activity Prevents 4M Deaths | PMC: Lives Saved by COVID Vaccines | Circulation: Three Interventions Save 94M Lives | PMC: Saving Millions Pandemic Research","quote":null,"source":"ScienceDaily: Physical Activity Prevents 4M Deaths","title":"Medical research lives saved annually (4.2 million)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200617194510.htm","urls":["https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200617194510.htm"],"year":"2020"},"mental-health-burden":{"author":"World Health Organization","id":"mental-health-burden","note":"World Health Organization, 2022, Mental Health Fact Sheet","quote":null,"source":"World Health Organization","title":"Mental health global burden","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.who.int/news/item/28-09-2001-the-world-health-report-2001-mental-disorders-affect-one-in-four-people","urls":["https://www.who.int/news/item/28-09-2001-the-world-health-report-2001-mental-disorders-affect-one-in-four-people"],"year":"2022"},"military-spending-economic-multiplier":{"author":"Mercatus","id":"military-spending-economic-multiplier","note":"Mercatus: Defense Spending and Economy | CEPR: WWII Spending Multipliers | RAND: Defense Spending Economic Growth","quote":null,"source":"Mercatus: Defense Spending and Economy","title":"Military spending economic multiplier (0.6)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.mercatus.org/research/research-papers/defense-spending-and-economy","urls":["https://www.mercatus.org/research/research-papers/defense-spending-and-economy"],"year":null},"nato-556-ammo-cost":{"author":"U.S. Department of Defense","id":"nato-556-ammo-cost","note":"Military bulk procurement price for M855 5.56x45mm NATO ball ammunition. Civilian retail prices range \\$0.37--\\$0.60/round; military bulk contracts are typically at or below retail floor. \\$0.40/round used as conservative midpoint.","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"5.56mm NATO Ammunition Bulk Procurement Pricing","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.bulkcheapammo.com/rifle-ammo/556-ammo","urls":["https://www.bulkcheapammo.com/rifle-ammo/556-ammo"],"year":"2024"},"nato-556-rounds-per-kill":{"author":"Pike, John","id":"nato-556-rounds-per-kill","note":"Based on GAO figures showing approximately 6 billion bullets expended between 2002 and 2005 in Iraq and Afghanistan. Calculated by military researcher John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org.","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"U.S. Forces Fire 250,000 Rounds for Every Insurgent Killed","type":"webpage","url":"https://jonathanturley.org/2011/01/10/gao-u-s-has-fired-250000-rounds-for-every-insurgent-killed/","urls":["https://jonathanturley.org/2011/01/10/gao-u-s-has-fired-250000-rounds-for-every-insurgent-killed/"],"year":"2011"},"necrometrics-20th-century":{"author":"White, Matthew","id":"necrometrics-20th-century","note":null,"quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Estimated Totals for the Entire 20th Century","type":"webpage","url":"https://necrometrics.com/all20c.htm","urls":["https://necrometrics.com/all20c.htm"],"year":"2011"},"nih-brain-initiative-planned-budget":{"author":"National Institutes of Health BRAIN Initiative","id":"nih-brain-initiative-planned-budget","note":"The BRAIN 2025 scientific vision set the NIH component plan; NIH notices describe the plan as a sustained federal commitment of \\$4.5 billion over 12 years.","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"BRAIN 2025: A Scientific Vision","type":"webpage","url":"https://braininitiative.nih.gov/vision/nih-brain-initiative-reports/brain-2025-scientific-vision","urls":["https://braininitiative.nih.gov/vision/nih-brain-initiative-reports/brain-2025-scientific-vision"],"year":"2014"},"nih-budget-fy2025":{"author":"NIH","id":"nih-budget-fy2025","note":"NIH, 2024, Budget Overview | NIH, Office of Budget | Note: FY2024 budget was \\$47.1B","quote":null,"source":"NIH","title":"NIH Budget (FY 2025)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/organization/budget","urls":["https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/organization/budget"],"year":"2024"},"nih-clinical-trials-spending-pct-3-3":{"author":"Bentley et al.","id":"nih-clinical-trials-spending-pct-3-3","note":"Bentley et al., 2023 | Fierce Biotech: NIH Spending","quote":null,"source":"Bentley et al.","title":"NIH spending on clinical trials: ~3.3%","type":"article-journal","url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10349341/","urls":["https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10349341/"],"year":"2023"},"nonprofit-clinical-trial-spending-estimate":{"author":"Estimated from major foundation budgets and activities","id":"nonprofit-clinical-trial-spending-estimate","note":"Estimated from major foundation budgets and activities","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Nonprofit clinical trial funding estimate","type":"webpage","url":null,"urls":[],"year":null},"nuke-winter-150tg":{"author":"Xia et al., Nature Food","id":"nuke-winter-150tg","note":"Xia et al., Nature Food, 2022, Global food insecurity and famine from nuclear war soot injection","quote":null,"source":"Xia et al.","title":"Nuclear Winter Famine","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0","urls":["https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0"],"year":"2022"},"odds-of-decisive-vote":{"author":"Columbia/NBER","id":"odds-of-decisive-vote","note":"Columbia/NBER: What Is the Probability Your Vote Will Make a Difference? | Economic Inquiry 2012","quote":null,"source":"Columbia/NBER: What Is the Probability Your Vote Will Make a Difference?","title":"Odds of a single vote being decisive in a U.S. presidential election","type":"article-journal","url":"https://sites.stat.columbia.edu/gelman/research/published/probdecisive2.pdf","urls":["https://sites.stat.columbia.edu/gelman/research/published/probdecisive2.pdf"],"year":"2012"},"oecd-govt-spending":{"author":"OECD","id":"oecd-govt-spending","note":"OECD, 2024, General Government Spending","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"OECD Government Spending as Percentage of GDP","type":"webpage","url":"https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-spending.htm","urls":["https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-spending.htm"],"year":"2024"},"oecd-median-income":{"author":"OECD","id":"oecd-median-income","note":"OECD, 2024, Household Disposable Income","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"OECD Median Household Income Comparison","type":"webpage","url":"https://data.oecd.org/hha/household-disposable-income.htm","urls":["https://data.oecd.org/hha/household-disposable-income.htm"],"year":"2024"},"opensecrets-lobbying-2024":{"author":"OpenSecrets","id":"opensecrets-lobbying-2024","note":"OpenSecrets, Federal Lobbying Set New Record in 2024","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Federal Lobbying Hit Record \\$4.4 Billion in 2024","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2025/02/federal-lobbying-set-new-record-in-2024/","urls":["https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2025/02/federal-lobbying-set-new-record-in-2024/"],"year":"2024"},"opensecrets-revolving-door":{"author":"OpenSecrets","id":"opensecrets-revolving-door","note":"OpenSecrets, Revolving Door","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Revolving Door: Former Members of Congress","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.opensecrets.org/revolving-door","urls":["https://www.opensecrets.org/revolving-door"],"year":"2024"},"operation-warp-speed-potential-vaccine-awards":{"author":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","id":"operation-warp-speed-potential-vaccine-awards","note":"GAO reported Operation Warp Speed vaccine candidate awards with obligations of at least \\$10 billion and total potential estimated value of at least \\$18 billion.","quote":null,"source":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","title":"Operation Warp Speed Vaccine Candidate Awards Potential Value","type":"report","url":"https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-21-207.pdf","urls":["https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-21-207.pdf"],"year":"2020"},"papanicolas2018":{"author":"Papanicolas, Irene et al.","id":"papanicolas2018","note":"Papanicolas et al., 2018, JAMA | Highly cited comparison of healthcare spending across OECD countries","quote":null,"source":"Papanicolas et al.","title":"Health Care Spending in the United States and Other High-Income Countries","type":"article-journal","url":"https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2674671","urls":["https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2674671"],"year":"2018"},"patient-willingness-clinical-trials":{"author":"Trials","id":"patient-willingness-clinical-trials","note":"Trials: Patients' Willingness Survey | Applied Clinical Trials: Patient Participation | PMC: Study Design Factors","quote":null,"source":"Trials: Patients' Willingness Survey","title":"Patient willingness to participate in clinical trials","type":"article-journal","url":"https://trialsjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13063-015-1105-3","urls":["https://trialsjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13063-015-1105-3"],"year":null},"pcornet-infrastructure-funding":{"author":"PCORnet","id":"pcornet-infrastructure-funding","note":"The dashboard reports PCORI funding for PCORnet Studies of \\$324,785,410, rounded here to \\$325 million as a network-scale infrastructure anchor.","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"PCORnet Quarterly Progress Report, Q4 2025","type":"webpage","url":"https://pcornet.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/EXTERNAL_PCORnetDashboard.Q4.v2.FINAL_.pdf","urls":["https://pcornet.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/EXTERNAL_PCORnetDashboard.Q4.v2.FINAL_.pdf"],"year":"2026"},"pentagon-unaccounted-2-5t":{"author":"The Commune","id":"pentagon-unaccounted-2-5t","note":"The Commune, 2024, Pentagon Misplaced \\$2.46 Trillion | Accounting Magazine, 2016, Audit: Pentagon Cannot Account for \\$6.5 Trillion Dollars","quote":null,"source":"The Commune","title":"Pentagon audit failures (\\$2.46T unaccounted)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://thecommunemag.com/the-pentagon-misplaced-2-46-trillion-an-in-depth-look-at-the-financial-audit-failures","urls":["https://thecommunemag.com/the-pentagon-misplaced-2-46-trillion-an-in-depth-look-at-the-financial-audit-failures"],"year":"2024"},"pharma-drug-revenue-average":{"author":"Value in Health","id":"pharma-drug-revenue-average","note":"Value in Health: Sales Revenues for New Therapeutic Agents | ScienceDirect: Sales Revenues FDA Drugs","quote":null,"source":"Value in Health: Sales Revenues for New Therapeutic Agents","title":"Average lifetime revenue per successful drug","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1098301524027542","urls":["https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1098301524027542"],"year":null},"pharma-roi-current":{"author":"Deloitte","id":"pharma-roi-current","note":"Deloitte: Measuring Pharmaceutical Innovation 2025 | Deloitte 2023: Pharma R&D ROI Falls | HIT Consultant: 13-Year Low","quote":null,"source":"Deloitte: Measuring Pharmaceutical Innovation 2025","title":"Pharmaceutical R&D return on investment (ROI)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.deloitte.com/ch/en/Industries/life-sciences-health-care/research/measuring-return-from-pharmaceutical-innovation.html","urls":["https://www.deloitte.com/ch/en/Industries/life-sciences-health-care/research/measuring-return-from-pharmaceutical-innovation.html"],"year":"2025"},"phase-3-cost-per-trial-range":{"author":"SofproMed","id":"phase-3-cost-per-trial-range","note":"SofproMed, How Much Does a Clinical Trial Cost | CBO, Research and Development in the Pharmaceutical Industry","quote":null,"source":"SofproMed","title":"Phase 3 cost per trial range","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.sofpromed.com/how-much-does-a-clinical-trial-cost","urls":["https://www.sofpromed.com/how-much-does-a-clinical-trial-cost"],"year":null},"pmc-pragmatic-trial-cost":{"author":"Ramsberg, J. and Platt, R.","id":"pmc-pragmatic-trial-cost","note":"Harvard Medical School/Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Learning Health Systems 2018","quote":null,"source":"Learning Health Systems","title":"Pragmatic Trial Cost per Patient (Median \\$97)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6508852/","urls":["https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6508852/"],"year":"2018"},"polio-vaccination-roi":{"author":"WHO","id":"polio-vaccination-roi","note":"WHO, 2019, Sustaining Polio Investments Offers a High Return","quote":null,"source":"WHO","title":"Polio Vaccination ROI","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/sustaining-polio-investments-offers-a-high-return","urls":["https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/sustaining-polio-investments-offers-a-high-return"],"year":"2019"},"political-dysfunction-tax-paper-2025":{"author":"Sinn, Mike P.","id":"political-dysfunction-tax-paper-2025","note":"Working Draft","quote":null,"source":"Institute for Accelerated Medicine","title":"The Political Dysfunction Tax","type":"report","url":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","urls":["https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html"],"year":"2025"},"post-1962-drug-approval-drop":{"author":"Kinch, Michael S. and Griesenauer, Robert H.","id":"post-1962-drug-approval-drop","note":"Peer-reviewed analysis of drug availability 1962-present. Finds: 1,600+ medicines available in 1962; >50% lost post-Kefauver-Harris Amendment; 1950s peak of >30 new products/year not replicated until late 1990s.","quote":null,"source":"Drug Discovery Today","title":"Lost medicines: a longer view of the pharmaceutical industry with the potential to reinvigorate discovery","type":"article-journal","url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7245331/","urls":["https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7245331/"],"year":"2019"},"post-1962-life-expectancy-slowdown":{"author":"Source: US Life Expectancy FDA Budget 1543-2019 CSV","id":"post-1962-life-expectancy-slowdown","note":"Source: US Life Expectancy FDA Budget 1543-2019 CSV | Our World in Data: Life Expectancy | Primary sources: Human Mortality Database (historical), CDC NCHS National Vital Statistics (modern)","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Post-1962 slowdown in life expectancy gains","type":"webpage","url":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/data/us-life-expectancy-fda-budget-1543-2019.csv","urls":["https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/data/us-life-expectancy-fda-budget-1543-2019.csv"],"year":"2019"},"pragmatic-trials-cost-advantage":{"author":"NIH Common Fund","id":"pragmatic-trials-cost-advantage","note":"NIH Common Fund: HCS Research Collaboratory | PCORnet ADAPTABLE Summary | PMC: Pragmatic Clinical Trials in Healthcare Systems","quote":null,"source":"NIH Common Fund: HCS Research Collaboratory","title":"NIH Pragmatic Trials: Minimal Funding Despite 30x Cost Advantage","type":"article-journal","url":"https://commonfund.nih.gov/hcscollaboratory","urls":["https://commonfund.nih.gov/hcscollaboratory"],"year":"2025"},"pre-1962-drug-costs-baily-1972":{"author":"Baily, Martin Neil","id":"pre-1962-drug-costs-baily-1972","note":"Baily (1972), \"Research and Development Costs and Returns: The U.S. Pharmaceutical Industry,\" cited in Health Affairs 1982, The Importance of Patent Term Restoration","quote":null,"source":"Baily (1972)","title":"Pre-1962 drug development costs (Baily 1972)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://samizdathealth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/hlthaff.1.2.6.pdf","urls":["https://samizdathealth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/hlthaff.1.2.6.pdf"],"year":"1972"},"pre-1962-drug-costs-timeline":{"author":"Think by Numbers","id":"pre-1962-drug-costs-timeline","note":"Think by Numbers: How Many Lives Does FDA Save? | Wikipedia: Cost of Drug Development | STAT: 1962 Law Slowed Development","quote":null,"source":"Think by Numbers: How Many Lives Does FDA Save?","title":"Pre-1962 drug development costs and timeline (Think by Numbers)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://thinkbynumbers.org/health/how-many-net-lives-does-the-fda-save/","urls":["https://thinkbynumbers.org/health/how-many-net-lives-does-the-fda-save/"],"year":"1962"},"pre-1962-physician-trials":{"author":"Think by Numbers","id":"pre-1962-physician-trials","note":"Think by Numbers: How Many Lives Does FDA Save? | FDA: Drug Efficacy Study Implementation | NAS: Drug Efficacy Study 1966-1969","quote":null,"source":"Think by Numbers: How Many Lives Does FDA Save?","title":"Pre-1962 physician-led clinical trials","type":"article-journal","url":"https://thinkbynumbers.org/health/how-many-net-lives-does-the-fda-save/","urls":["https://thinkbynumbers.org/health/how-many-net-lives-does-the-fda-save/"],"year":"1966"},"psychological-impact-war-cost":{"author":"PubMed","id":"psychological-impact-war-cost","note":"PubMed: Economic Burden of PTSD | VA News: Study Economic Burden | PMC: Mental Health Costs Armed Conflicts","quote":null,"source":"PubMed: Economic Burden of PTSD","title":"Psychological impact of war cost (\\$100B annually)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35485933/","urls":["https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35485933/"],"year":null},"qaly-threshold-history":{"author":"Gosse, M.E.","id":"qaly-threshold-history","note":null,"quote":null,"source":"Sustainability Impact Metrics","title":"Assessing cost-effectiveness in healthcare: history of the \\$50,000 per QALY threshold","type":"article-journal","url":"https://ecocostsvalue.com/EVR/img/references%20others/Gosse%202008%20QALY%20threshold%20financial.pdf","urls":["https://ecocostsvalue.com/EVR/img/references%20others/Gosse%202008%20QALY%20threshold%20financial.pdf"],"year":"2008"},"qaly-value":{"author":"ICER","id":"qaly-value","note":"ICER, Reference Case","quote":null,"source":"ICER","title":"Value per QALY (standard economic value)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://icer.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Reference-Case-4.3.25.pdf","urls":["https://icer.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Reference-Case-4.3.25.pdf"],"year":"2024"},"rare-disease-only-5pct-have-treatment":{"author":"Orphanet Journal of Rare Diseases (2024)","id":"rare-disease-only-5pct-have-treatment","note":"Orphanet Journal of Rare Diseases (2024)","quote":null,"source":"Orphanet Journal of Rare Diseases (2024)","title":"Rare Disease Treatment Gap","type":"article-journal","url":"https://ojrd.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13023-024-03398-1","urls":["https://ojrd.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13023-024-03398-1"],"year":"2024"},"recovery-cost-500":{"author":"Oren Cass, Manhattan Institute","id":"recovery-cost-500","note":"Oren Cass, Manhattan Institute, 2023, Slow, Costly Clinical Trials Drag Down Biomedical Breakthroughs","quote":null,"source":"Oren Cass","title":"RECOVERY Trial Cost per Patient","type":"article-journal","url":"https://manhattan.institute/article/slow-costly-clinical-trials-drag-down-biomedical-breakthroughs","urls":["https://manhattan.institute/article/slow-costly-clinical-trials-drag-down-biomedical-breakthroughs"],"year":"2023"},"recovery-trial-1m-lives-saved":{"author":"NHS England; Águas et al.","id":"recovery-trial-1m-lives-saved","note":"NHS England: 1 Million Lives Saved | Águas et al. Nature Communications 2021 | Pharmaceutical Journal | RECOVERY Trial","quote":null,"source":"NHS England: 1 Million Lives Saved","title":"RECOVERY trial global lives saved (~1 million)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.england.nhs.uk/2021/03/covid-treatment-developed-in-the-nhs-saves-a-million-lives/","urls":["https://www.england.nhs.uk/2021/03/covid-treatment-developed-in-the-nhs-saves-a-million-lives/"],"year":"2021"},"recovery-trial-82x-cost-reduction":{"author":"Manhattan Institute","id":"recovery-trial-82x-cost-reduction","note":"Manhattan Institute: Slow Costly Trials | PMC: Establishing RECOVERY at Scale","quote":null,"source":"Manhattan Institute: Slow Costly Trials","title":"RECOVERY trial 82× cost reduction","type":"article-journal","url":"https://manhattan.institute/article/slow-costly-clinical-trials-drag-down-biomedical-breakthroughs","urls":["https://manhattan.institute/article/slow-costly-clinical-trials-drag-down-biomedical-breakthroughs"],"year":null},"rummel-death-by-government":{"author":"Rummel, R. J.","id":"rummel-death-by-government","note":null,"quote":null,"source":"Transaction Publishers","title":"Death by Government: Genocide and Mass Murder Since 1900","type":"book","url":"https://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/NOTE1.HTM","urls":["https://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/NOTE1.HTM"],"year":"1994"},"september-11-memorial":{"author":"National September 11 Memorial & Museum","id":"september-11-memorial","note":null,"quote":null,"source":null,"title":"September 11 Attack Facts","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.911memorial.org/911-faqs","urls":["https://www.911memorial.org/911-faqs"],"year":"2024"},"sipri-milex-2024":{"author":"Stockholm International Peace Research Institute","id":"sipri-milex-2024","note":"World military expenditure reached \\$2,718 billion in 2024, an increase of 9.4% in real terms from 2023, the steepest year-on-year rise since at least the end of the cold war. The 10th consecutive annual increase. Global military burden rose to 2.5% of GDP. NATO members spent \\$1.506 trillion (55% of world total). US spent \\$968 billion.","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2024","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2024","urls":["https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2024"],"year":"2025"},"sipri2024":{"author":"Stockholm International Peace Research Institute","id":"sipri2024","note":null,"quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2023","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.sipri.org/publications/2024/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2023","urls":["https://www.sipri.org/publications/2024/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2023"],"year":"2024"},"smallpox-eradication-roi":{"author":"CSIS","id":"smallpox-eradication-roi","note":"CSIS, Smallpox Eradication Model: Global Cooperation | PMC3720047, Link","quote":null,"source":"CSIS","title":"Smallpox Eradication ROI","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.csis.org/analysis/smallpox-eradication-model-global-cooperation","urls":["https://www.csis.org/analysis/smallpox-eradication-model-global-cooperation"],"year":null},"standard-medical-research-roi":{"author":"PMC","id":"standard-medical-research-roi","note":"PMC: Cost-effectiveness Thresholds Used by Study Authors, 1990-2021 | ICER Cost-Effectiveness Methods","quote":null,"source":"PMC: Cost-effectiveness Thresholds Used by Study Authors","title":"Standard Medical Research ROI (\\$20k-\\$100k/QALY)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10114019/","urls":["https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10114019/"],"year":"1990"},"state-farm-v-campbell-2003":{"author":"United States Supreme Court","id":"state-farm-v-campbell-2003","note":"Official United States Reports entry. The Court treated single-digit punitive-to-compensatory ratios as the due-process boundary in ordinary cases, while rejecting a rigid mathematical rule.","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co. v. Campbell, 538 U.S. 408","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/USREPORTS-538/USREPORTS-538-408","urls":["https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/USREPORTS-538/USREPORTS-538-408"],"year":"2003"},"status-quo-cure-timeline-estimate":{"author":"Composite estimate based on Orphanet","id":"status-quo-cure-timeline-estimate","note":"Composite estimate based on Orphanet, FDA approval data, and queue theory","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Average Time to Cure Under Current System","type":"webpage","url":null,"urls":[],"year":null},"sugar-subsidies-cost":{"author":"GAO","id":"sugar-subsidies-cost","note":"GAO: Sugar Program | Heritage: US Sugar Program | AEI: \\$4B Sugar Subsidies","quote":null,"source":"GAO: Sugar Program","title":"Annual cost of U.S. sugar subsidies","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-24-106144","urls":["https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-24-106144"],"year":null},"surowiecki-2004":{"author":"James Surowiecki","id":"surowiecki-2004","note":"Surowiecki, J. (2004). The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few. Doubleday. | Wikipedia | Amazon","quote":null,"source":"Surowiecki","title":"The Wisdom of Crowds","type":"book","url":"https://archive.org/details/wisdomofcrowds0000suro","urls":["https://archive.org/details/wisdomofcrowds0000suro"],"year":"2004"},"swiss-military-budget-0-7-pct-gdp":{"author":"World Bank","id":"swiss-military-budget-0-7-pct-gdp","note":"World Bank: Military Expenditure % GDP Switzerland | Avenir Suisse: Defense Spending | Trading Economics: Switzerland Military Expenditure","quote":null,"source":"World Bank: Military Expenditure % GDP Switzerland","title":"Swiss military budget as percentage of GDP","type":"article-journal","url":"https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locations=CH","urls":["https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locations=CH"],"year":null},"swiss-vs-us-gdp-per-capita":{"author":"World Bank","id":"swiss-vs-us-gdp-per-capita","note":"World Bank: Switzerland GDP Per Capita | Trading Economics: Switzerland GDP Per Capita PPP | TheGlobalEconomy: USA GDP Per Capita PPP","quote":null,"source":"World Bank: Switzerland GDP Per Capita","title":"Switzerland vs. US GDP per capita comparison","type":"article-journal","url":"https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=CH","urls":["https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=CH"],"year":null},"taxfoundation2024-compliance":{"author":"Tax Foundation","id":"taxfoundation2024-compliance","note":null,"quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Tax Compliance Costs the US Economy \\$546 Billion Annually","type":"article-journal","url":"https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/federal/irs-tax-compliance-costs/","urls":["https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/federal/irs-tax-compliance-costs/"],"year":"2024"},"thalidomide-scandal":{"author":"Wikipedia","id":"thalidomide-scandal","note":"Wikipedia, Thalidomide scandal","quote":null,"source":"Wikipedia","title":"Thalidomide scandal: worldwide cases and mortality","type":"article-journal","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thalidomide_scandal","urls":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thalidomide_scandal"],"year":null},"thalidomide-survivors-health":{"author":"PLOS One","id":"thalidomide-survivors-health","note":"PLOS One, 2019, The health and quality of life of Thalidomide survivors as they age","quote":null,"source":"PLOS One","title":"Health and quality of life of Thalidomide survivors as they age","type":"article-journal","url":"https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0210222","urls":["https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0210222"],"year":"2019"},"trial-costs-fda-study":{"author":"FDA Study via NCBI","id":"trial-costs-fda-study","note":"FDA Study via NCBI, Link","quote":null,"source":"FDA Study via NCBI","title":"Trial Costs, FDA Study","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6248200/","urls":["https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6248200/"],"year":null},"ucdp-state-violence-deaths":{"author":"UCDP","id":"ucdp-state-violence-deaths","note":"UCDP: Uppsala Conflict Data Program | Wikipedia: UCDP | Our World in Data: Armed Conflict Deaths","quote":null,"source":"UCDP: Uppsala Conflict Data Program","title":"State violence deaths annually","type":"article-journal","url":"https://ucdp.uu.se/","urls":["https://ucdp.uu.se/"],"year":null},"unhcr-refugee-support-cost":{"author":"CGDev","id":"unhcr-refugee-support-cost","note":"CGDev, Costs of Hosting Refugees in OECD Countries | UNHCR/World Bank, Global Cost of Refugee Inclusion","quote":null,"source":"CGDev","title":"UNHCR average refugee support cost","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.cgdev.org/blog/costs-hosting-refugees-oecd-countries-and-why-uk-outlier","urls":["https://www.cgdev.org/blog/costs-hosting-refugees-oecd-countries-and-why-uk-outlier"],"year":"2024"},"unpaid-caregiver-hours-economic-value":{"author":"AARP","id":"unpaid-caregiver-hours-economic-value","note":"AARP 2023, Unpaid Care Report | Bureau of Labor Statistics 2023-2024, Unpaid Eldercare | National Alliance for Caregiving, Caregiver Statistics","quote":null,"source":"AARP 2023","title":"Unpaid caregiver hours and economic value","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.aarp.org/caregiving/financial-legal/info-2023/unpaid-caregivers-provide-billions-in-care.html","urls":["https://www.aarp.org/caregiving/financial-legal/info-2023/unpaid-caregivers-provide-billions-in-care.html"],"year":"2023"},"us-census-world-population-1960":{"author":"US Census Bureau","id":"us-census-world-population-1960","note":"US Census Bureau, Historical Estimates of World Population","quote":null,"source":"US Census Bureau","title":"Historical world population estimates","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/international-programs/historical-est-worldpop.html","urls":["https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/international-programs/historical-est-worldpop.html"],"year":null},"us-chronic-disease-spending":{"author":"CDC","id":"us-chronic-disease-spending","note":"CDC, Chronic Disease Data","quote":null,"source":"CDC","title":"U.S. chronic disease healthcare spending","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.cdc.gov/chronic-disease/data-research/facts-stats/index.html","urls":["https://www.cdc.gov/chronic-disease/data-research/facts-stats/index.html"],"year":null},"us-military-budget-3-5-pct-gdp":{"author":"Statista","id":"us-military-budget-3-5-pct-gdp","note":"Statista, Military spending as percent of GDP | SIPRI, Trends in World Military Expenditure 2024","quote":null,"source":"Statista","title":"US military budget as percentage of GDP","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.statista.com/statistics/262742/countries-with-the-highest-military-spending/","urls":["https://www.statista.com/statistics/262742/countries-with-the-highest-military-spending/"],"year":"2024"},"us-military-spending-historical-constant-dollars":{"author":"Dave Manuel","id":"us-military-spending-historical-constant-dollars","note":"DaveManuel.com, US Defense Spending History in Constant 2024 Dollars. Compiled from OMB historical tables and BLS inflation data.","quote":null,"source":"DaveManuel.com","title":"U.S. Defense Spending History: 100 Years of Military Budgets","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.davemanuel.com/us-defense-spending-history-military-budget-data.php","urls":["https://www.davemanuel.com/us-defense-spending-history-military-budget-data.php"],"year":"2025"},"us-senate-treaties":{"author":"U.S. Senate","id":"us-senate-treaties","note":"U.S. Senate, Treaties","quote":null,"source":"U.S. Senate","title":"Treaties","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/treaties.htm","urls":["https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/treaties.htm"],"year":null},"us-voter-population":{"author":"US Census Bureau","id":"us-voter-population","note":"US Census Bureau, 2024 Voting and Registration | US EAC, 2024 Election Survey Report","quote":null,"source":"US Census Bureau","title":"Number of registered or eligible voters in the U.S.","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025/2024-presidential-election-voting-registration-tables.html","urls":["https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025/2024-presidential-election-voting-registration-tables.html"],"year":"2024"},"valley-of-death-attrition":{"author":"Hutchinson and Kirk","id":"valley-of-death-attrition","note":"Hutchinson & Kirk (2011), Drug Discov Today; conservative estimate 40% abandoned due to cost","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Valley of Death in Drug Development","type":"webpage","url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3324971/","urls":["https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3324971/"],"year":"2011"},"veteran-healthcare-cost-projections":{"author":"VA","id":"veteran-healthcare-cost-projections","note":"VA, FY 2026 Budget Submission | CBO, Veterans' Disability Compensation | American Legion, VA budget tops \\$400B for 2025","quote":null,"source":"VA","title":"Veteran healthcare cost projections","type":"article-journal","url":"https://department.va.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/2026-Budget-in-Brief.pdf","urls":["https://department.va.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/2026-Budget-in-Brief.pdf"],"year":"2026"},"vitamin-a-cost-per-daly":{"author":"PLOS ONE","id":"vitamin-a-cost-per-daly","note":"PLOS ONE: Cost-effectiveness of \"Golden Mustard\" for Treating Vitamin A Deficiency in India (2010) | PLOS ONE: Cost-effectiveness of Vitamin A supplementation in Sub-Saharan Africa (2022)","quote":null,"source":"PLOS ONE: Cost-effectiveness of \"Golden Mustard\" for Treating Vitamin A Deficiency in India (2010)","title":"Cost per DALY for Vitamin A Supplementation","type":"article-journal","url":"https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0012046","urls":["https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0012046"],"year":"2010"},"warren-buffett-career-average-return-20-pct":{"author":"CNBC","id":"warren-buffett-career-average-return-20-pct","note":"CNBC, Warren Buffett's return tally after 60 years: 5,502,284% | SlickCharts, Berkshire Hathaway Returns by Year","quote":null,"source":"CNBC","title":"Warren Buffett's career average investment return","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/05/warren-buffetts-return-tally-after-60-years-5502284percent.html","urls":["https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/05/warren-buffetts-return-tally-after-60-years-5502284percent.html"],"year":"2025"},"who-cost-effectiveness-threshold":{"author":"PMC","id":"who-cost-effectiveness-threshold","note":"PMC, Country-Level Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds | WHO, WHO-CHOICE Methods Update","quote":null,"source":"PMC","title":"Cost-effectiveness threshold (\\$50,000/QALY)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5193154/","urls":["https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5193154/"],"year":null},"who-global-health-estimates-2024":{"author":"World Health Organization","id":"who-global-health-estimates-2024","note":"World Health Organization, 2024, Global Health Estimates: Life expectancy and leading causes of death and disability","quote":null,"source":"World Health Organization","title":"WHO Global Health Estimates 2024","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates","urls":["https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates"],"year":"2024"},"who-life-expectancy":{"author":"World Health Organization","id":"who-life-expectancy","note":"WHO, 2024, Life Expectancy","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"WHO Life Expectancy Data by Country","type":"webpage","url":"https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates/ghe-life-expectancy-and-healthy-life-expectancy","urls":["https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates/ghe-life-expectancy-and-healthy-life-expectancy"],"year":"2024"},"world-bank-government-expense-pct-gdp":{"author":"World Bank","id":"world-bank-government-expense-pct-gdp","note":"World Development Indicators, indicator GC.XPN.TOTL.GD.ZS. World general government total expense reported at 31.78% of GDP (2021, most recent global aggregate). Applied to IMF world GDP estimate of \\$115 trillion yields approximately \\$36 trillion in annual government expenditure worldwide.","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Expense (% of GDP) - World","type":"webpage","url":"https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GC.XPN.TOTL.GD.ZS?locations=1W","urls":["https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GC.XPN.TOTL.GD.ZS?locations=1W"],"year":"2024"},"world-bank-gross-savings-2023":{"author":"World Bank","id":"world-bank-gross-savings-2023","note":"World Development Indicators, indicator NY.GNS.ICTR.ZS. Global average ~27% of GDP (2023-2024).","quote":null,"source":null,"title":"Gross Savings (% of GDP)","type":"webpage","url":"https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNS.ICTR.ZS?locations=1W","urls":["https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNS.ICTR.ZS?locations=1W"],"year":"2024"},"world-bank-trade-disruption-conflict":{"author":"World Bank","id":"world-bank-trade-disruption-conflict","note":"World Bank, Trading Away from Conflict | NBER/World Bank, Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption | World Bank, Impacts on Global Trade of Current Trade Disputes","quote":null,"source":"World Bank","title":"World Bank trade disruption cost from conflict","type":"article-journal","url":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/trade/publication/trading-away-from-conflict","urls":["https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/trade/publication/trading-away-from-conflict"],"year":null},"world-warheads":{"author":"Federation of American Scientists","id":"world-warheads","note":"Federation of American Scientists, 2024, Status of World Nuclear Forces","quote":null,"source":"Federation of American Scientists","title":"World Nuclear Forces","type":"article-journal","url":"https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/","urls":["https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/"],"year":"2024"},"worldbank-gdp":{"author":"World Bank, Bureau of Economic Analysis","id":"worldbank-gdp","note":"World Bank, GDP (current US$) - United States | Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP and the Economy","quote":null,"source":"World Bank","title":"US GDP 2024 (\\$28.78 trillion)","type":"article-journal","url":"https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=US","urls":["https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=US"],"year":"2024"},"worldbank-singapore-gdp":{"author":"World Bank","id":"worldbank-singapore-gdp","note":"World Bank, Singapore Data","quote":null,"source":"World Bank","title":"World Bank Singapore Economic Data","type":"article-journal","url":"https://data.worldbank.org/country/singapore","urls":["https://data.worldbank.org/country/singapore"],"year":"2024"},"yalebudgetlab2025":{"author":"Yale Budget Lab","id":"yalebudgetlab2025","note":null,"quote":null,"source":null,"title":"The Fiscal, Economic, and Distributional Effects of All U.S. Tariffs","type":"webpage","url":"https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/where-we-stand-fiscal-economic-and-distributional-effects-all-us-tariffs-enacted-2025-through-april","urls":["https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/where-we-stand-fiscal-economic-and-distributional-effects-all-us-tariffs-enacted-2025-through-april"],"year":"2025"}},"parameters":{"ADAPTABLE_TRIAL_COST_PER_PATIENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[929,1400],"conservative":null,"description":"Cost per patient in ADAPTABLE trial ($14M PCORI grant / 15,076 patients). Note: This is the direct grant cost; true cost including in-kind may be 10-40% higher.","displayName":"ADAPTABLE Trial Cost per Patient","formatted":"929 USD/patient","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"pragmatic-trials-cost-advantage","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://commonfund.nih.gov/hcscollaboratory","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/patient","value":929},"ADAPTABLE_TRIAL_TOTAL_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[14000000,20000000],"conservative":null,"description":"PCORI grant for ADAPTABLE trial (2016-2019). Note: Direct funding only; total costs including site overhead and in-kind contributions from health systems may be higher.","displayName":"ADAPTABLE Trial Total Cost","formatted":"$14.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"pragmatic-trials-cost-advantage","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://commonfund.nih.gov/hcscollaboratory","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":14000000},"ANNUAL_TERRORISM_DEATH_RISK_DENOMINATOR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/1-percent-treaty.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Annual probability of being killed by terrorism expressed as '1 in X'. An American's annual odds of dying in a terrorist attack are approximately 1 in 30 million.","displayName":"Annual Terrorism Death Risk (1 in X)","formatted":"30.00M people","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"chance-of-dying-from-terrorism-1-in-30m","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/terrorism-immigration-risk-analysis","stdError":null,"unit":"people","value":30000000},"ANTIDEPRESSANT_TRIAL_EXCLUSION_RATE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Mean exclusion rate in antidepressant trials (86.1% of real-world patients excluded)","displayName":"Antidepressant Trial Exclusion Rate","formatted":"86.1%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"antidepressant-trial-exclusion-rates","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26276679/","stdError":null,"unit":"percentage","value":0.861},"AVERAGE_MARKET_RETURN_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/aligning-incentives.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Average annual stock market return (10%)","displayName":"Average Annual Stock Market Return","formatted":"10.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"warren-buffett-career-average-return-20-pct","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/05/warren-buffetts-return-tally-after-60-years-5502284percent.html","stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.1},"BASELINE_LIVES_SAVED_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":true,"description":"Baseline annual lives saved by pharmaceuticals (conservative aggregate)","displayName":"Baseline Annual Lives Saved by Pharmaceuticals","formatted":"12 deaths/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"who-global-health-estimates-2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates","stdError":null,"unit":"deaths/year","value":12},"BED_NETS_COST_PER_DALY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[78,100],"conservative":null,"description":"GiveWell cost per DALY for insecticide-treated bed nets (midpoint estimate, range $78-100). DALYs (Disability-Adjusted Life Years) measure disease burden by combining years of life lost and years lived with disability. Bed nets prevent malaria deaths and are considered a gold standard benchmark for cost-effective global health interventions - if an intervention costs less per DALY than bed nets, it's exceptionally cost-effective. GiveWell synthesizes peer-reviewed academic research with transparent, rigorous methodology and extensive external expert review.","displayName":"Bed Nets Cost per DALY","formatted":"89 USD/DALY","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"givewell-cost-per-life-saved","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/DALY","value":89},"BULLETS_FIRED_PER_KILL_IRAQ_AFGHANISTAN":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/extinction-surplus.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Rounds of small-arms ammunition fired per insurgent killed in Iraq and Afghanistan. Based on GAO figures: ~6 billion rounds expended 2002-2005. Calculated by military researcher John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org.","displayName":"Bullets Fired per Kill (Iraq/Afghanistan)","formatted":"250,000 rounds","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"nato-556-rounds-per-kill","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://jonathanturley.org/2011/01/10/gao-u-s-has-fired-250000-rounds-for-every-insurgent-killed/","stdError":null,"unit":"rounds","value":250000},"BULLET_COST_556_NATO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/extinction-surplus.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[0.25,0.6],"conservative":null,"description":"Cost per round of 5.56x45mm NATO ammunition (military bulk procurement). Based on U.S. military procurement contracts for M855 ball ammunition. Civilian retail floor is ~$0.37; $0.40 is a conservative midpoint.","displayName":"Cost per 5.56mm NATO Round (Bulk)","formatted":"$0.4","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"nato-556-ammo-cost","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.bulkcheapammo.com/rifle-ammo/556-ammo","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":0.4},"CAREGIVER_ANNUAL_VALUE_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-disease.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual value of unpaid caregiving in US","displayName":"Total Annual Value of Unpaid Caregiving in US","formatted":"600.00B USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"unpaid-caregiver-hours-economic-value","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.aarp.org/caregiving/financial-legal/info-2023/unpaid-caregivers-provide-billions-in-care.html","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":600000000000},"CAREGIVER_COUNT_US":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-disease.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Number of unpaid caregivers in US","displayName":"Number of Unpaid Caregivers in US","formatted":"38.00M people","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"unpaid-caregiver-hours-economic-value","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.aarp.org/caregiving/financial-legal/info-2023/unpaid-caregivers-provide-billions-in-care.html","stdError":null,"unit":"people","value":38000000},"CAREGIVER_HOURS_PER_MONTH":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-disease.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Average monthly hours of unpaid family caregiving in US","displayName":"Average Monthly Hours of Unpaid Family Caregiving in US","formatted":"20 hours/month","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"unpaid-caregiver-hours-economic-value","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.aarp.org/caregiving/financial-legal/info-2023/unpaid-caregivers-provide-billions-in-care.html","stdError":null,"unit":"hours/month","value":20},"CAREGIVER_VALUE_PER_HOUR_SIMPLE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-disease.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Estimated replacement cost per hour of caregiving","displayName":"Estimated Replacement Cost per Hour of Caregiving","formatted":"25 USD/hour","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"unpaid-caregiver-hours-economic-value","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.aarp.org/caregiving/financial-legal/info-2023/unpaid-caregivers-provide-billions-in-care.html","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/hour","value":25},"CHAIN_GLOBAL_BILLIONAIRE_COUNT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Number of billionaires globally (Forbes 2024 count)","displayName":"Global Billionaire Count","formatted":"2,781 people","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"forbes-billionaires-2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/","stdError":null,"unit":"people","value":2781},"CHILDHOOD_VACCINATION_ANNUAL_BENEFIT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[8789113336.774607,23270925039.291225],"conservative":null,"description":"Estimated annual global economic benefit from childhood vaccination programs (measles, polio, etc.)","displayName":"Estimated Annual Global Economic Benefit from Childhood Vaccination Programs","formatted":"15.00B USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"childhood-vaccination-economic-benefits","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/wr/mm7331a2.htm","stdError":4500000000,"unit":"USD/year","value":15000000000},"CHILDHOOD_VACCINATION_ROI":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Return on investment from childhood vaccination programs","displayName":"Return on Investment from Childhood Vaccination Programs","formatted":"13 ratio","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"childhood-vaccination-roi","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6316a4.htm","stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":13},"CHRONIC_DISEASE_DISABILITY_WEIGHT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[0.2328134558866405,0.4649917996698385],"conservative":null,"description":"Disability weight for untreated chronic conditions (WHO Global Burden of Disease)","displayName":"Disability Weight for Untreated Chronic Conditions","formatted":"0.35 weight","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"who-global-health-estimates-2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates","stdError":0.07,"unit":"weight","value":0.35},"CONVENTIONAL_RETIREMENT_RETURN":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/earth-optimization-prize-fund.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.05,0.08],"conservative":null,"description":"Average retail after-fee return on conventional retirement portfolios (60/40 stock/bond mix, ~1% advisory fees, ~0.4% fund fees). Used as the opportunity cost comparison: depositors are LOSING money by NOT participating in the Prize Fund.","displayName":"Conventional Retirement Return (After Fees)","formatted":"0.065 percent","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.065},"CORPORATE_ANALOG_FALSE_CLAIMS_TREBLE_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Treble-damages multiplier from the False Claims Act, used here as the corporate-defendant analogy for audit and public-money claims in Humanity v. Government.","displayName":"Corporate Analog False Claims Act Treble Multiplier","formatted":"3 multiplier","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"doj-false-claims-act","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.justice.gov/civil/false-claims-act","stdError":null,"unit":"multiplier","value":3},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STATE_FARM_CEILING_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Total exposure multiplier for a 9:1 punitive-to-compensatory ratio, meaning base damages plus nine times base damages. Used as constitutional-ceiling exposure under State Farm v. Campbell, not a typical award.","displayName":"State Farm Constitutional-Ceiling Exposure Multiplier","formatted":"10 multiplier","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"state-farm-v-campbell-2003","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/USREPORTS-538/USREPORTS-538-408","stdError":null,"unit":"multiplier","value":10},"CPI_MULTIPLIER_1980_TO_2024":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/drug-development-cost-analysis.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3.75,3.85],"conservative":null,"description":"CPI inflation multiplier from 1980 to 2024 (280.48% cumulative inflation)","displayName":"CPI Multiplier: 1980 to 2024","formatted":"3.8 ratio","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"bls-cpi-inflation-calculator","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm","stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":3.8},"CROWD_DECISION_ACCURACY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/wishocracy.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Crowd accuracy on Who Wants to Be a Millionaire ask-the-audience lifeline. Studio audience picked the correct answer 91% of the time (Surowiecki 2004). Used as lower bound for wishocratic allocation accuracy.","displayName":"Crowd Decision Accuracy (Millionaire)","formatted":"0.91 percent","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"surowiecki-2004","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://archive.org/details/wisdomofcrowds0000suro","stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.91},"CURRENT_ACTIVE_TRIALS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Current active trials at any given time (3-5 year duration)","displayName":"Current Active Trials at Any Given Time","formatted":"10,000 trials","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"clinicaltrials-gov-enrollment-data-2025","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/data-api/api","stdError":null,"unit":"trials","value":10000},"CURRENT_CLINICAL_TRIAL_PARTICIPATION_RATE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/dfda.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Current clinical trial participation rate (0.06% of population)","displayName":"Current Clinical Trial Participation Rate","formatted":"0.1%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"clinical-trial-patient-participation-rate","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.fightcancer.org/policy-resources/barriers-patient-enrollment-therapeutic-clinical-trials-cancer","stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.0006},"CURRENT_DISEASE_PATIENTS_GLOBAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/dfda.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2000000000,2800000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Global population with chronic diseases","displayName":"Global Population with Chronic Diseases","formatted":"2.40B people","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"disease-prevalence-2-billion","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/06/150608081753.htm","stdError":null,"unit":"people","value":2400000000},"CURRENT_DRUG_APPROVALS_PER_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/nih-fails-2-institute-health.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[45,60],"conservative":null,"description":"Average annual new drug approvals globally","displayName":"Average Annual New Drug Approvals Globally","formatted":"50 drugs/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"global-new-drug-approvals-50-annually","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/50-new-drugs-received-FDA/103/i2","stdError":null,"unit":"drugs/year","value":50},"CURRENT_TRIALS_PER_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2640,3960],"conservative":null,"description":"Current global clinical trials per year","displayName":"Current Global Clinical Trials per Year","formatted":"3,300 trials/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"global-clinical-trials-market-2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/04/19/2866012/0/en/Global-Clinical-Trials-Market-Research-Report-2024-An-83-16-Billion-Market-by-2030-AI-Machine-Learning-and-Blockchain-will-Transform-the-Clinical-Trials-Landscape.html","stdError":null,"unit":"trials/year","value":3300},"CURRENT_TRIAL_ABANDONMENT_RATE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Current trial abandonment rate (40% never complete)","displayName":"Current Trial Abandonment Rate","formatted":"40.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"clinical-trial-abandonment-rate","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4444136/","stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.4},"CURRENT_TRIAL_SLOTS_AVAILABLE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1500000,2300000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual global clinical trial participants (IQVIA 2022: 1.9M post-COVID normalization)","displayName":"Annual Global Clinical Trial Participants","formatted":"1.90M patients/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"global-trial-participant-capacity","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://gmdpacademy.org/news/iqvia-report-clinical-trial-subjects-number-drops-due-to-decline-in-covid-19-enrollment/","stdError":null,"unit":"patients/year","value":1900000},"DEFENSE_LOBBYING_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/faq.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[100000000,160000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual defense industry lobbying spending","displayName":"Annual Defense Industry Lobbying Spending","formatted":"127.00M USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"lobbying-spend-defense","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/lobbying?ind=D","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":127000000},"DEMOCIDE_TOTAL_20TH_CENTURY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[200000000,272000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Total people murdered by governments worldwide, 1900-1999 (Rummel's democide estimate)","displayName":"20th-Century Government Democide Total","formatted":"262.00M deaths","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"rummel-death-by-government","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/NOTE1.HTM","stdError":null,"unit":"deaths","value":262000000},"DEWORMING_COST_PER_DALY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Cost per DALY for deworming programs (range $28-82, midpoint estimate). GiveWell notes this 2011 estimate is outdated and their current methodology focuses on long-term income effects rather than short-term health DALYs.","displayName":"Deworming Cost per DALY","formatted":"55 USD/DALY","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"deworming-cost-per-daly","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/deworming/cost-effectiveness","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/DALY","value":55},"DFDA_PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_COST_PER_PATIENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[97,3000],"conservative":null,"description":"Embedded pragmatic trial cost per patient. Uses ADAPTABLE trial ($929) as DELIBERATELY CONSERVATIVE central estimate. Ramsberg & Platt (2018) reviewed 108 embedded pragmatic trials; 64 with cost data had median of only $97/patient - this estimate may overstate costs by 10x. Confidence interval spans meta-analysis median to complex chronic disease trials.","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Cost per Patient","formatted":"929 USD/patient","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"pragmatic-trials-cost-advantage","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://commonfund.nih.gov/hcscollaboratory","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/patient","value":929},"DISEASE_BURDEN_GDP_DRAG_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Fraction of GDP currently lost to disease (productivity losses + medical costs diverted from productive use). $5T productivity loss + $9.9T direct medical costs = $14.9T on $115T GDP = ~13%. As diseases are progressively cured, this drag is recovered as GDP growth. This is the missing factor that makes the treaty trajectory look like a singularity rather than a modest improvement.","displayName":"Disease Burden as % of GDP","formatted":"0.13 percent","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"disease-economic-burden-109t","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.13},"DOT_VALUE_OF_STATISTICAL_LIFE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"DOT Value of Statistical Life (2024). Used by federal agencies to evaluate safety regulations and quantify the economic value of mortality risk reductions.","displayName":"DOT VSL","formatted":"$13.70M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"dot-vsl-2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/transportation-policy/revised-departmental-guidance-on-valuation-of-a-statistical-life-in-economic-analysis","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":13700000},"DRUG_DEVELOPMENT_COST_1980S":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[145500000,242500000],"conservative":null,"description":"Drug development cost in 1980s (compounded to approval, 1990 dollars)","displayName":"Drug Development Cost (1980s)","formatted":"$194.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"pre-1962-drug-costs-timeline","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://thinkbynumbers.org/health/how-many-net-lives-does-the-fda-save/","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":194000000},"DRUG_DISCOVERY_TO_APPROVAL_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[12,17],"conservative":null,"description":"Full drug development timeline from discovery to FDA approval. Typical range is 12-15 years based on BIO 2021 and PMC meta-analyses. Breakdown: preclinical 4-6 years + clinical 10.5 years. Using 14 years as central estimate.","displayName":"Drug Discovery to Approval Timeline","formatted":"14 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"bio-clinical-development-2021","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://go.bio.org/rs/490-EHZ-999/images/ClinicalDevelopmentSuccessRates2011_2020.pdf","stdError":1.5,"unit":"years","value":14},"DRUG_REPURPOSING_SUCCESS_RATE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Percentage of drugs that gain at least one new indication after initial approval","displayName":"Drug Repurposing Success Rate","formatted":"30.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"drug-repurposing-rate","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-03233-x","stdError":null,"unit":"percentage","value":0.3},"ECONOMIC_MULTIPLIER_EDUCATION_INVESTMENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Economic multiplier for education investment (2.1x ROI)","displayName":"Economic Multiplier for Education Investment","formatted":"2.1 x","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"education-investment-economic-multiplier","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.epi.org/publication/bp348-public-investments-outside-core-infrastructure/","stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":2.1},"ECONOMIC_MULTIPLIER_HEALTHCARE_INVESTMENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3,6],"conservative":null,"description":"Economic multiplier for healthcare investment (4.3x ROI). Literature range 3.0-6.0×.","displayName":"Economic Multiplier for Healthcare Investment","formatted":"4.3 x","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"healthcare-investment-economic-multiplier","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5954824/","stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":4.3},"ECONOMIC_MULTIPLIER_INFRASTRUCTURE_INVESTMENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Economic multiplier for infrastructure investment (1.6x ROI)","displayName":"Economic Multiplier for Infrastructure Investment","formatted":"1.6 x","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"infrastructure-investment-economic-multiplier","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/ppps/effectiveness-infrastructure-investment-fiscal-stimulus-what-weve-learned","stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":1.6},"ECONOMIC_MULTIPLIER_MILITARY_SPENDING":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.4,0.9],"conservative":null,"description":"Economic multiplier for military spending (0.6x ROI). Literature range 0.4-1.0×.","displayName":"Economic Multiplier for Military Spending","formatted":"0.6 x","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"military-spending-economic-multiplier","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.mercatus.org/research/research-papers/defense-spending-and-economy","stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":0.6},"EFFICACY_LAG_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[4.851813025332587,11.485479990566814],"conservative":null,"description":"Regulatory delay for efficacy testing (Phase II/III) post-safety verification. Based on BIO 2021 industry survey. Note: This is for drugs that COMPLETE the pipeline - survivor bias means actual delay for any given disease may be longer if candidates fail and must restart.","displayName":"Regulatory Delay for Efficacy Testing Post-Safety Verification","formatted":"8.2 years","formula":"TOTAL_TIME_TO_MARKET - PHASE_1_DURATION","latex":null,"sourceRef":"bio-clinical-development-2021","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://go.bio.org/rs/490-EHZ-999/images/ClinicalDevelopmentSuccessRates2011_2020.pdf","stdError":2,"unit":"years","value":8.2},"EXPERT_DECISION_ACCURACY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/wishocracy.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Expert accuracy on Who Wants to Be a Millionaire phone-a-friend lifeline. Credentialed expert picked the correct answer 65% of the time (Surowiecki 2004). Used as baseline for conventional fund manager / committee allocation.","displayName":"Expert Decision Accuracy (Millionaire)","formatted":"0.65 percent","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"surowiecki-2004","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://archive.org/details/wisdomofcrowds0000suro","stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.65},"FDA_APPROVED_PRODUCTS_COUNT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/nih-fails-2-institute-health.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Total FDA-approved drug products in the U.S.","displayName":"FDA-Approved Drug Products","formatted":"20,000 products","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"fda-approved-products-20k","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.fda.gov/media/143704/download","stdError":null,"unit":"products","value":20000},"FDA_APPROVED_UNIQUE_ACTIVE_INGREDIENTS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1300,2000],"conservative":null,"description":"Unique active pharmaceutical ingredients in FDA-approved products (midpoint of 1,300-2,000 range)","displayName":"FDA-Approved Unique Active Ingredients","formatted":"1,650 compounds","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"fda-approved-products-20k","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.fda.gov/media/143704/download","stdError":null,"unit":"compounds","value":1650},"FDA_GRAS_SUBSTANCES_COUNT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[570,700],"conservative":null,"description":"FDA Generally Recognized as Safe (GRAS) substances (midpoint of 570-700 range)","displayName":"FDA GRAS Substances","formatted":"635 substances","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"fda-gras-list-count","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.fda.gov/food/generally-recognized-safe-gras/gras-notice-inventory","stdError":null,"unit":"substances","value":635},"FDA_PHASE_1_TO_APPROVAL_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[6,12],"conservative":null,"description":"FDA timeline from Phase 1 start to approval. Derived from BIO 2021 industry survey: Phase 1 (2.3 years) + efficacy lag (8.2 years) = 10.5 years. Consistent with PMC meta-analysis finding 9.1 years median (95% CI: 8.2-10.0).","displayName":"FDA Phase 1 to Approval Timeline","formatted":"10.5 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"bio-clinical-development-2021","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://go.bio.org/rs/490-EHZ-999/images/ClinicalDevelopmentSuccessRates2011_2020.pdf","stdError":2,"unit":"years","value":10.5},"GIVEWELL_COST_PER_LIFE_AVG":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"GiveWell average cost per life saved across top charities","displayName":"Givewell Average Cost per Life Saved Across Top Charities","formatted":"4,500 USD/life","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"givewell-cost-per-life-saved","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/life","value":4500},"GIVEWELL_COST_PER_LIFE_MAX":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"GiveWell cost per life saved (Against Malaria Foundation)","displayName":"Givewell Cost per Life Saved (Maximum)","formatted":"5,500 USD/life","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"givewell-cost-per-life-saved","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/life","value":5500},"GIVEWELL_COST_PER_LIFE_MIN":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"GiveWell cost per life saved (Helen Keller International)","displayName":"Givewell Cost per Life Saved (Minimum)","formatted":"3,500 USD/life","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"givewell-cost-per-life-saved","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/life","value":3500},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_CONFLICT_DEATHS_ACTIVE_COMBAT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[180000,300000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual deaths from active combat worldwide","displayName":"Annual Deaths from Active Combat Worldwide","formatted":"233,600 deaths/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"acled-active-combat-deaths","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://acleddata.com/2024/12/12/data-shows-global-conflict-surged-in-2024-the-washington-post/","stdError":null,"unit":"deaths/year","value":233600},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_CONFLICT_DEATHS_STATE_VIOLENCE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1500,5000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual deaths from state violence","displayName":"Annual Deaths from State Violence","formatted":"2,700 deaths/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"ucdp-state-violence-deaths","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://ucdp.uu.se/","stdError":null,"unit":"deaths/year","value":2700},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_CONFLICT_DEATHS_TERROR_ATTACKS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[6000,12000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual deaths from terror attacks globally","displayName":"Annual Deaths from Terror Attacks Globally","formatted":"8,300 deaths/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"gtd-terror-attack-deaths","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://ourworldindata.org/terrorism","stdError":null,"unit":"deaths/year","value":8300},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DALY_BURDEN":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2628885976.8999443,3126410999.2925115],"conservative":null,"description":"Global annual DALY burden from all diseases and injuries (WHO/IHME Global Burden of Disease 2021). Includes both YLL (years of life lost) and YLD (years lived with disability) from all causes.","displayName":"Global Annual DALY Burden","formatted":"2.88B DALYs/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"ihme-gbd-2021","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/","stdError":150000000,"unit":"DALYs/year","value":2880000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DEATHS_CURABLE_DISEASES":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[46629532.56333147,63213699.976417035],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual deaths from all diseases and aging globally","displayName":"Annual Deaths from All Diseases and Aging Globally","formatted":"55.00M deaths/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"who-global-health-estimates-2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates","stdError":5000000,"unit":"deaths/year","value":55000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_ENVIRONMENTAL_DAMAGE_CONFLICT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[70000000000,140000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual environmental damage and restoration costs from conflict","displayName":"Annual Environmental Damage and Restoration Costs from Conflict","formatted":"$100.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"environmental-cost-of-war","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/social/environment","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":100000000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_INFRASTRUCTURE_DAMAGE_COMMUNICATIONS_CONFLICT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[209000000000,418000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual infrastructure damage to communications from conflict","displayName":"Annual Infrastructure Damage to Communications from Conflict","formatted":"$298.10B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"environmental-cost-of-war","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/social/environment","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":298100000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_INFRASTRUCTURE_DAMAGE_EDUCATION_CONFLICT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[164000000000,328000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual infrastructure damage to education facilities from conflict","displayName":"Annual Infrastructure Damage to Education Facilities from Conflict","formatted":"$234.50B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"environmental-cost-of-war","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/social/environment","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":234500000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_INFRASTRUCTURE_DAMAGE_ENERGY_CONFLICT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[295000000000,590000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual infrastructure damage to energy systems from conflict","displayName":"Annual Infrastructure Damage to Energy Systems from Conflict","formatted":"$421.70B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"environmental-cost-of-war","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/social/environment","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":421700000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_INFRASTRUCTURE_DAMAGE_HEALTHCARE_CONFLICT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[116000000000,232000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual infrastructure damage to healthcare facilities from conflict","displayName":"Annual Infrastructure Damage to Healthcare Facilities from Conflict","formatted":"$165.60B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"environmental-cost-of-war","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/social/environment","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":165600000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_INFRASTRUCTURE_DAMAGE_TRANSPORTATION_CONFLICT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[340000000000,680000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual infrastructure damage to transportation from conflict","displayName":"Annual Infrastructure Damage to Transportation from Conflict","formatted":"$487.30B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"environmental-cost-of-war","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/social/environment","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":487300000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_INFRASTRUCTURE_DAMAGE_WATER_CONFLICT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[187000000000,375000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual infrastructure damage to water systems from conflict","displayName":"Annual Infrastructure Damage to Water Systems from Conflict","formatted":"$267.80B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"environmental-cost-of-war","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/social/environment","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":267800000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_LIVES_SAVED_BY_MED_RESEARCH":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3000000,6000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual lives saved by medical research globally","displayName":"Annual Lives Saved by Medical Research Globally","formatted":"4.20M lives/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"medical-research-lives-saved-annually","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200617194510.htm","stdError":null,"unit":"lives/year","value":4200000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_LOST_ECONOMIC_GROWTH_MILITARY_SPENDING":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1900000000000,3800000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual foregone economic output from military spending vs productive alternatives. This estimate implicitly captures fiscal multiplier differences (military ~0.6x vs healthcare ~4.3x GDP multiplier). Do not add separate GDP multiplier adjustment to avoid double-counting.","displayName":"Annual Lost Economic Growth from Military Spending Opportunity Cost","formatted":"$2.72T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"disparity-ratio-weapons-vs-cures","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.sipri.org/commentary/blog/2016/opportunity-cost-world-military-spending","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":2718000000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_LOST_HUMAN_CAPITAL_CONFLICT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[210000000000,420000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual lost productivity from conflict casualties","displayName":"Annual Lost Productivity from Conflict Casualties","formatted":"$300.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"lost-human-capital-war-cost","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://thinkbynumbers.org/military/war/the-economic-case-for-peace-a-comprehensive-financial-analysis/","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":300000000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_PSYCHOLOGICAL_IMPACT_COSTS_CONFLICT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[162000000000,325000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual PTSD and mental health costs from conflict","displayName":"Annual PTSD and Mental Health Costs from Conflict","formatted":"$232.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"psychological-impact-war-cost","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35485933/","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":232000000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_REFUGEE_SUPPORT_COSTS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[105000000000,210000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual refugee support costs (108.4M refugees × $1,384/year)","displayName":"Annual Refugee Support Costs","formatted":"$150.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"unhcr-refugee-support-cost","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.cgdev.org/blog/costs-hosting-refugees-oecd-countries-and-why-uk-outlier","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":150000000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_TRADE_DISRUPTION_CURRENCY_CONFLICT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[40000000000,80000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual trade disruption costs from currency instability","displayName":"Annual Trade Disruption Costs from Currency Instability","formatted":"$57.40B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"world-bank-trade-disruption-conflict","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/trade/publication/trading-away-from-conflict","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":57400000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_TRADE_DISRUPTION_ENERGY_PRICE_CONFLICT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[87000000000,175000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual trade disruption costs from energy price volatility","displayName":"Annual Trade Disruption Costs from Energy Price Volatility","formatted":"$124.70B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"world-bank-trade-disruption-conflict","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/trade/publication/trading-away-from-conflict","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":124700000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_TRADE_DISRUPTION_SHIPPING_CONFLICT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[173000000000,346000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual trade disruption costs from shipping disruptions","displayName":"Annual Trade Disruption Costs from Shipping Disruptions","formatted":"$247.10B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"world-bank-trade-disruption-conflict","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/trade/publication/trading-away-from-conflict","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":247100000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_TRADE_DISRUPTION_SUPPLY_CHAIN_CONFLICT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[131000000000,262000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual trade disruption costs from supply chain disruptions","displayName":"Annual Trade Disruption Costs from Supply Chain Disruptions","formatted":"$186.80B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"world-bank-trade-disruption-conflict","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/trade/publication/trading-away-from-conflict","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":186800000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_VETERAN_HEALTHCARE_COSTS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[140000000000,280000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual veteran healthcare costs (20-year projected)","displayName":"Annual Veteran Healthcare Costs","formatted":"$200.10B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"veteran-healthcare-cost-projections","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://department.va.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/2026-Budget-in-Brief.pdf","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":200100000000},"GLOBAL_CHRONIC_THERAPY_DAYS_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[1000000000000,1500000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual days of therapy for chronic conditions globally (diabetes, CVD, respiratory, cancer). IQVIA reports 1.8 trillion total days of therapy in 2019, with 71% for chronic conditions.","displayName":"Annual Days of Chronic Disease Therapy","formatted":"1280.00B days","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"iqvia-global-medicines-2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.iqvia.com/insights/the-iqvia-institute/reports-and-publications/reports/the-global-use-of-medicines-2024-outlook-to-2028","stdError":null,"unit":"days","value":1280000000000},"GLOBAL_CLINICAL_TRIALS_SPENDING_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[50000000000,75000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual global spending on clinical trials (Industry: $45-60B + Government: $3-6B + Nonprofits: $2-5B). Conservative estimate using 15-20% of $300B total pharma R&D, not inflated market size projections.","displayName":"Annual Global Spending on Clinical Trials","formatted":"$60.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"industry-clinical-trial-spending-estimate","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://cost-of-change.warondisease.org","stdError":10000000000,"unit":"USD","value":60000000000},"GLOBAL_CYBERCRIME_CAGR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Compound annual growth rate of global cybercrime costs. Cybersecurity Ventures: $3T (2015) -> $6T (2021) -> $10.5T (2025). AI-enhanced attacks are accelerating this trend.","displayName":"Cybercrime Cost CAGR","formatted":"0.15 percent","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"cybercrime-economy-10-5t","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://cybersecurityventures.com/hackerpocalypse-cybercrime-report-2016/","stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.15},"GLOBAL_CYBERCRIME_COST_ANNUAL_2025":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Projected global cybercrime costs in 2025. Includes data theft, productivity loss, IP theft, fraud. More profitable than global trade of all major illegal drugs combined. If measured as a country, would be the 3rd largest economy after US and China.","displayName":"Global Cybercrime Costs (2025)","formatted":"$10.50T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"cybercrime-economy-10-5t","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://cybersecurityventures.com/hackerpocalypse-cybercrime-report-2016/","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":10500000000000},"GLOBAL_DISEASE_DEATHS_DAILY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/questions.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[137444.2988449972,162320.54996462556],"conservative":null,"description":"Total global deaths per day from all disease and aging (WHO Global Burden of Disease 2024)","displayName":"Global Daily Deaths from Disease and Aging","formatted":"150,000 deaths/day","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"who-global-health-estimates-2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates","stdError":7500,"unit":"deaths/day","value":150000},"GLOBAL_DISEASE_DIRECT_MEDICAL_COST_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[7000000000000,14000000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Direct medical costs of disease globally (treatment, hospitalization, medication). Standalone market-cost metric; not included in DALY-based welfare burden to avoid double-counting.","displayName":"Global Annual Direct Medical Costs of Disease","formatted":"9900.00B USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"disease-economic-burden-109t","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":9900000000000},"GLOBAL_DISEASE_PRODUCTIVITY_LOSS_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3500000000000,7000000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual productivity loss from disease globally (absenteeism, reduced output). Standalone market-cost metric; not included in DALY-based welfare burden to avoid double-counting.","displayName":"Global Annual Productivity Loss from Disease","formatted":"5000.00B USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"disease-economic-burden-109t","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":5000000000000},"GLOBAL_GDP_2025":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Global nominal GDP (2025 estimate). From Political Dysfunction Tax paper citing StatisticsTimes/IMF World Economic Outlook. Used for calculating global opportunity costs as percentage of world economic output. Note: Latest IMF data shows $117T.","displayName":"Global GDP (2025)","formatted":"$115.00T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"political-dysfunction-tax-paper-2025","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":115000000000000},"GLOBAL_GDP_PER_CAPITA_1900":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[2312.953256333147,3971.3699976417033],"conservative":null,"description":"Global GDP per capita in 1900 in constant 2024 USD. Maddison Project: ~$1,260 in 1990 international dollars, adjusted to 2024 USD (~2.5x).","displayName":"Global GDP per Capita in 1900","formatted":"3,150 USD/person","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"maddison-project-2020","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2020","stdError":500,"unit":"USD/person","value":3150},"GLOBAL_GOVERNMENT_CLINICAL_TRIALS_SPENDING_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3000000000,6000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual global government spending on interventional clinical trials (~5-10% of total)","displayName":"Annual Global Government Spending on Clinical Trials","formatted":"$4.50B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"global-government-clinical-trial-spending-estimate","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.appliedclinicaltrialsonline.com/view/sizing-clinical-research-market","stdError":1000000000,"unit":"USD","value":4500000000},"GLOBAL_GOVERNMENT_EXPENSE_PCT_GDP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"World general government total expense as a share of GDP, using World Bank indicator GC.XPN.TOTL.GD.ZS. The most recent world aggregate in the cited source is 2021.","displayName":"Global Government Expense Share of GDP","formatted":"0.3178 percent","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"world-bank-government-expense-pct-gdp","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GC.XPN.TOTL.GD.ZS?locations=1W","stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.3178},"GLOBAL_HALE_CURRENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[60.78885976899944,65.76410999292511],"conservative":null,"description":"Global healthy life expectancy at birth (HALE) from WHO Global Health Observatory, 2019 data (most recent available). HALE measures years lived in full health, adjusting for years lived with disability or disease.","displayName":"Global Healthy Life Expectancy (HALE)","formatted":"63.3 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"who-global-health-estimates-2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates","stdError":1.5,"unit":"years","value":63.3},"GLOBAL_HOUSEHOLD_WEALTH_USD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/incentive-alignment-bonds-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Total global household wealth (2022/2023 estimate)","displayName":"Global Household Wealth","formatted":"$454.00T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"cs-global-wealth-report-2023","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.ubs.com/global/en/family-office-uhnw/reports/global-wealth-report-2023.html","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":454000000000000},"GLOBAL_INVESTABLE_ASSETS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Total global financial wealth (2024): equities, bonds, cash/deposits, and investment funds. Excludes real estate and physical assets. This is the addressable capital pool for PRIZE deposits.","displayName":"Global Investable Financial Assets","formatted":"$305.00T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":305000000000000},"GLOBAL_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_2024":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[75.6518130253326,82.28547999056681],"conservative":null,"description":"Global life expectancy (2024)","displayName":"Global Life Expectancy (2024)","formatted":"79 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"who-global-health-estimates-2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates","stdError":2,"unit":"years","value":79},"GLOBAL_MEDIAN_AGE_2024":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Global median age in 2024 from UN World Population Prospects 2024 revision.","displayName":"Global Median Age (2024)","formatted":"30.5 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"global-median-age-un-wpp-2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://population.un.org/wpp","stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":30.5},"GLOBAL_MED_RESEARCH_SPENDING":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[54000000000,81000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Global government medical research spending","displayName":"Global Government Medical Research Spending","formatted":"$67.50B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"global-gov-med-research-spending","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/what-we-do/budget","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":67500000000},"GLOBAL_MILITARY_SPENDING_ANNUAL_2005":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/1-percent-treaty.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Global military spending in 2005, constant 2023 USD (SIPRI World total). Used as the 20-year reference point for computing the long-horizon real CAGR.","displayName":"Global Military Spending in 2005 (Constant 2023 USD)","formatted":"$1.62T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"sipri-milex-2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2024","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1621800000000},"GLOBAL_MILITARY_SPENDING_ANNUAL_2024":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Global military spending in 2024","displayName":"Global Military Spending in 2024","formatted":"$2.72T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"global-military-spending","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2024","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":2720000000000},"GLOBAL_MILITARY_SPENDING_REAL_CAGR_10YR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Real compound annual growth rate of global military spending over the last decade (2014-2024). SIPRI reports 10 consecutive annual increases, with 2024 up 9.4% in real terms. The 10-year CAGR is approximately 3.4% real.","displayName":"Military Spending Real CAGR (10-Year)","formatted":"0.034 percent","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"sipri-milex-2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2024","stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.034},"GLOBAL_NONPROFIT_CLINICAL_TRIALS_SPENDING_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2000000000,5000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual global nonprofit spending on clinical trials (foundations, disease advocacy groups)","displayName":"Annual Global Nonprofit Spending on Clinical Trials","formatted":"$3.50B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"nonprofit-clinical-trial-spending-estimate","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":3500000000},"GLOBAL_NUCLEAR_WEAPONS_SPENDING":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/extinction-surplus.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Annual global spending on nuclear weapons across all nine nuclear-armed states. US: $51.5B, China: $11.8B, UK: $8.1B, Russia: $8.3B, France: $6.8B, India: ~$2.7B, Israel: ~$1.2B, Pakistan: ~$1.1B, North Korea: ~$0.7B.","displayName":"Global Nuclear Weapons Spending","formatted":"$92.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"global-nuclear-weapon-maintenance-100b","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.icanw.org/global_spending_on_nuclear_weapons_topped_100_billion_in_2024","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":92000000000},"GLOBAL_PHARMA_RD_SPENDING_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Total global pharmaceutical R&D spending ($300B annually, clinical trials represent 15-20% of this total)","displayName":"Annual Global Pharmaceutical R&D Spending","formatted":"$300.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"global-pharma-rd-spending-300b","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":300000000000},"GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/dih.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[7800000000,8200000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Global population in 2024","displayName":"Global Population in 2024","formatted":"8.00B of people","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"global-population-8-billion","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-reach-8-billion-15-november-2022","stdError":null,"unit":"of people","value":8000000000},"GLOBAL_POPULATION_2040_PROJECTED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"UN World Population Prospects 2022 median projection for 2040. Interpolated midpoint between ~8.1B (2025) and 9.2B (2045).","displayName":"Global Population 2040 (Projected)","formatted":"8.90B of people","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"global-population-8-billion","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-reach-8-billion-15-november-2022","stdError":null,"unit":"of people","value":8900000000},"GLOBAL_POPULATION_2045_PROJECTED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"UN World Population Prospects 2022 median projection for 2045.","displayName":"Global Population 2045 (Projected)","formatted":"9.20B of people","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"global-population-8-billion","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-reach-8-billion-15-november-2022","stdError":null,"unit":"of people","value":9200000000},"GLOBAL_POPULATION_ACTIVISM_THRESHOLD_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/global-referendum.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.01,0.1],"conservative":null,"description":"Critical mass threshold for social change (3.5% rule). Chenoweth studied national regime changes; applying to a global treaty adds uncertainty. Lower bound: some movements succeeded at ~1%. Upper bound: entrenched defense-industry opposition and weaker signal from digital signatures vs sustained protest may require up to 10%.","displayName":"Critical Mass Threshold for Social Change","formatted":"0.035 percent","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"3-5-rule","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/carr/publications/35-rule-how-small-minority-can-change-world","stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.035},"GLOBAL_REGISTERED_VOTERS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/global-referendum.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Best current register-based estimate of the number of registered voters worldwide, calculated by summing the latest available country-level electoral-roll counts in International IDEA's Voter Turnout Database export. Used as the verified-human headcount proxy for the majority-of-humanity coordination target.","displayName":"Global Registered Voters","formatted":"4.13B of people","formula":null,"latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{voters,global} \\\\\n= 4{,}128{,}142{,}495 \\\\\n\\approx 4.13B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"international-idea-voter-turnout-database-2026","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.idea.int/data-tools/export?type=region_only&themeId=293&world=all&loc=home","stdError":null,"unit":"of people","value":4128142495},"GLOBAL_RETIREMENT_ASSETS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/earth-optimization-prize-fund.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Total global pension and retirement assets (OECD 2024). This is the capital pool that the Prize Fund competes with and could partially absorb.","displayName":"Global Retirement Assets","formatted":"$70.00T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":70000000000000},"GLOBAL_SAVINGS_RATE_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.24,0.3],"conservative":null,"description":"Global gross savings as share of GDP (World Bank, ~27% average 2023-2024)","displayName":"Global Gross Savings Rate","formatted":"0.27 percent","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"world-bank-gross-savings-2023","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNS.ICTR.ZS?locations=1W","stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.27},"GLOBAL_SYMPTOMATIC_DISEASE_TREATMENT_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[6500000000000,10000000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual global spending on symptomatic disease treatment","displayName":"Annual Global Spending on Symptomatic Disease Treatment","formatted":"8200.00B USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"disease-economic-burden-109t","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":8200000000000},"GLOBAL_WARHEAD_COUNT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/extinction-surplus.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Total global nuclear warhead inventory across nine nuclear-armed states. Includes deployed, reserve, and retired warheads awaiting dismantlement.","displayName":"Global Nuclear Warhead Count","formatted":"12,241 warheads","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"world-warheads","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/","stdError":null,"unit":"warheads","value":12241},"GLOBAL_YLD_PROPORTION_OF_DALYS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.33977719537998885,0.43928219985850225],"conservative":null,"description":"Proportion of global DALYs that are YLD (years lived with disability) vs YLL (years of life lost). From GBD 2021: 1.13B YLD out of 2.88B total DALYs = 39%.","displayName":"YLD Proportion of Total DALYs","formatted":"0.39 proportion","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"ihme-gbd-2021","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/","stdError":0.03,"unit":"proportion","value":0.39},"HOME_BIAS_ALPHA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/earth-optimization-prize-fund.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.003,0.015],"conservative":null,"description":"Return drag from home bias in fragmented national pension systems. 70+ countries each overweight domestic assets, missing global diversification. IMF and Vanguard studies estimate 0.3-1.5% annual return cost. Wishocratic allocation is inherently global, eliminating this drag.","displayName":"Home Bias Return Drag","formatted":"0.008 percent","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.008},"HUMAN_GENOME_PROJECT_TOTAL_ECONOMIC_IMPACT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Estimated total economic impact of Human Genome Project","displayName":"Estimated Total Economic Impact of Human Genome Project","formatted":"$1.00T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"human-genome-and-genetic-editing","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.genome.gov/11006929/2003-release-international-consortium-completes-hgp","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1000000000000},"HUMAN_INTERACTOME_TARGETED_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Percentage of human interactome (protein-protein interactions) targeted by drugs","displayName":"Human Interactome Targeted by Drugs","formatted":"12.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"clinical-trials-puzzle-interactome","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10749231/","stdError":null,"unit":"percentage","value":0.12},"ICD_10_TOTAL_CODES":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Total ICD-10 diagnostic codes for human diseases and conditions","displayName":"ICD-10 Total Codes","formatted":"14,000 codes","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"icd-10-code-count","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://icd.who.int/browse10/2019/en","stdError":null,"unit":"codes","value":14000},"LIFE_EXTENSION_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[5,100],"conservative":null,"description":"Expected years of life extension from 1% treaty research acceleration (25x trial capacity). Bounds: 0 (complete failure) to ~150 (accident-limited lifespan minus current). Lognormal distribution allows for breakthrough scenarios.","displayName":"Life Extension from Treaty Research Acceleration","formatted":"20 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"longevity-escape-velocity","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity","stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":20},"LOBBYIST_SALARY_MAX":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/aligning-incentives.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Maximum annual lobbyist salary range","displayName":"Maximum Annual Lobbyist Salary Range","formatted":"$2.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"lobbyist-statistics-dc","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lobbying_in_the_United_States","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":2000000},"LOBBYIST_SALARY_MIN_K":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/aligning-incentives.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Minimum annual lobbyist salary range","displayName":"Minimum Annual Lobbyist Salary Range","formatted":"$500.00K","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"lobbyist-statistics-dc","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lobbying_in_the_United_States","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":500000},"MEASLES_VACCINATION_ROI":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Return on investment from measles (MMR) vaccination programs","displayName":"Return on Investment from Measles Vaccination Programs","formatted":"14 ratio","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"measles-vaccination-roi","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/12/11/1210","stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":14},"MEDICAL_QALY_THRESHOLD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Medical cost-effectiveness QALY threshold. Standard threshold for evaluating whether health interventions are cost-effective. Interventions below $100K/QALY are generally considered cost-effective.","displayName":"Medical QALY Threshold","formatted":"100,000 USD/QALY","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"qaly-threshold-history","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://ecocostsvalue.com/EVR/img/references%20others/Gosse%202008%20QALY%20threshold%20financial.pdf","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/QALY","value":100000},"MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_BRAIN_INITIATIVE_PLANNED_BUDGET":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Planned NIH BRAIN Initiative commitment described in the BRAIN 2025 scientific vision.","displayName":"Medical Toolchain BRAIN Initiative Planned Budget","formatted":"$4.50B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"nih-brain-initiative-planned-budget","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://braininitiative.nih.gov/vision/nih-brain-initiative-reports/brain-2025-scientific-vision","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":4500000000},"MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_CRISPR_NIH_FUNDING_2011_2018":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Rounded NIH CRISPR-related research funding for FY2011-FY2018 from CRS Table 1.","displayName":"Medical Toolchain NIH CRISPR Funding, FY2011-FY2018","formatted":"$3.10B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"crs-crispr-nih-funding-2011-2018","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/R/PDF/R44824/R44824.7.pdf","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":3100000000},"MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_HGP_COST_USD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Approximate Human Genome Project cost used as an observed medical-toolchain anchor.","displayName":"Medical Toolchain Human Genome Project Cost","formatted":"$2.70B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"human-genome-and-genetic-editing","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.genome.gov/11006929/2003-release-international-consortium-completes-hgp","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":2700000000},"MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_HITECH_EHR_INCENTIVE_ESTIMATED_SPENDING":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"GAO estimate of Medicare and Medicaid EHR incentive program spending from 2011 through 2019.","displayName":"Medical Toolchain HITECH EHR Incentive Estimated Spending","formatted":"$30.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"hitech-ehr-incentive-estimated-spending","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-12-481","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":30000000000},"MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_OWS_POTENTIAL_VACCINE_AWARDS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"GAO-reported total potential estimated value of Operation Warp Speed vaccine candidate awards.","displayName":"Medical Toolchain Operation Warp Speed Potential Vaccine Awards","formatted":"$18.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"operation-warp-speed-potential-vaccine-awards","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-21-207.pdf","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":18000000000},"MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_PCORNET_INFRASTRUCTURE_FUNDING":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Rounded PCORI-funded PCORnet Studies amount from the Q4 2025 PCORnet dashboard. Used as a network-scale pragmatic-trial infrastructure anchor.","displayName":"Medical Toolchain PCORnet Infrastructure Funding Anchor","formatted":"$325.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"pcornet-infrastructure-funding","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://pcornet.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/EXTERNAL_PCORnetDashboard.Q4.v2.FINAL_.pdf","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":325000000},"MENTAL_HEALTH_PRODUCTIVITY_LOSS_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-disease.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Annual productivity loss per capita from mental health issues (beyond treatment costs)","displayName":"Annual Productivity Loss per Capita from Mental Health Issues","formatted":"2,000 USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"mental-health-burden","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.who.int/news/item/28-09-2001-the-world-health-report-2001-mental-disorders-affect-one-in-four-people","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":2000},"NATO_DEFENSE_SPENDING_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Total NATO member defense spending in 2024. Source: SIPRI.","displayName":"NATO Defense Spending (2024)","formatted":"$1.51T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"sipri2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.sipri.org/publications/2024/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2023","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1506000000000},"NEW_DISEASE_FIRST_TREATMENTS_PER_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[8,30],"conservative":null,"description":"Number of diseases that receive their FIRST effective treatment each year under current system. ~9 rare diseases/year (based on 40 years of ODA: 350 with treatment ÷ 40 years), plus ~5-10 common diseases. Note: FDA approves ~50 drugs/year, but most are for diseases that already have treatments.","displayName":"Diseases Getting First Treatment Per Year","formatted":"15 diseases/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"diseases-getting-first-treatment-annually","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://ojrd.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13023-024-03398-1","stdError":null,"unit":"diseases/year","value":15},"NIH_ANNUAL_BUDGET":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/nih-fails-2-institute-health.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[45000000000,50000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"NIH annual budget (FY2024/2025)","displayName":"NIH Annual Budget","formatted":"$47.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"nih-budget-fy2025","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/organization/budget","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":47000000000},"NIH_CLINICAL_TRIALS_SPENDING_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/nih-fails-2-institute-health.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.02,0.05],"conservative":null,"description":"Percentage of NIH budget spent on clinical trials (3.3%)","displayName":"NIH Clinical Trials Spending Percentage","formatted":"3.3%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"nih-clinical-trials-spending-pct-3-3","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10349341/","stdError":null,"unit":"percentage","value":0.033},"NIH_STANDARD_RESEARCH_COST_PER_QALY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[20000,100000],"conservative":null,"description":"Typical cost per QALY for standard NIH-funded medical research portfolio. Reflects the inefficiency of traditional RCTs and basic research-heavy allocation. See confidence_interval for range; ICER uses higher thresholds for value-based pricing.","displayName":"NIH Standard Research Cost per QALY","formatted":"50,000 USD/QALY","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"standard-medical-research-roi","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10114019/","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/QALY","value":50000},"NUCLEAR_WINTER_WARHEAD_THRESHOLD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/extinction-surplus.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[50,300],"conservative":null,"description":"Approximate number of warheads needed to trigger a regional-scale nuclear winter sufficient to collapse the global food system. A 100-warhead regional exchange (Robock/Toon 2007, extended by Xia et al. 2022) injects ~5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere, drops global temperatures ~1.8C for a decade, shortens growing seasons worldwide, and kills ~2 billion people from famine. Civilization as the median human experiences it does not survive. Xia 2022 shows total agricultural collapse (~5B deaths) at ~4,400 warheads; this parameter uses the lower threshold for median-human civilizational collapse.","displayName":"Nuclear Winter Warhead Threshold","formatted":"100 warheads","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"nuke-winter-150tg","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0","stdError":null,"unit":"warheads","value":100},"OXFORD_RECOVERY_TRIAL_DURATION_MONTHS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/dfda.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Oxford RECOVERY trial duration (found life-saving treatment in 3 months)","displayName":"Oxford RECOVERY Trial Duration","formatted":"3 months","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"recovery-trial-82x-cost-reduction","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://manhattan.institute/article/slow-costly-clinical-trials-drag-down-biomedical-breakthroughs","stdError":null,"unit":"months","value":3},"PATIENT_WILLINGNESS_TRIAL_PARTICIPATION_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/nih-fails-2-institute-health.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[0.4,0.5],"conservative":null,"description":"Patient willingness to participate in drug trials (44.8% in surveys, 88% when actually approached)","displayName":"Patient Willingness to Participate in Clinical Trials","formatted":"44.8%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"patient-willingness-clinical-trials","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://trialsjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13063-015-1105-3","stdError":0.025,"unit":"percentage","value":0.448},"PENTAGON_UNACCOUNTED_FUNDS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Funds the Department of Defense has failed to account for across seven consecutive failed audits","displayName":"Pentagon Unaccounted Funds","formatted":"$2.46T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"pentagon-unaccounted-2-5t","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://thecommunemag.com/the-pentagon-misplaced-2-46-trillion-an-in-depth-look-at-the-financial-audit-failures","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":2460000000000},"PHARMA_DRUG_DEVELOPMENT_COST_CURRENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/fda-is-unsafe-and-ineffective.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1500000000,4000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Average cost to develop one drug in current system","displayName":"Pharma Drug Development Cost (Current System)","formatted":"$2.60B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"drug-development-cost","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":500000000,"unit":"USD","value":2600000000},"PHARMA_DRUG_REVENUE_AVERAGE_CURRENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/aligning-incentives.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Median lifetime revenue per successful drug (study of 361 FDA-approved drugs 1995-2014, median follow-up 13.2 years)","displayName":"Pharma Average Drug Revenue (Current System)","formatted":"$6.70B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"pharma-drug-revenue-average","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1098301524027542","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":6700000000},"PHARMA_LIFE_YEARS_SAVED_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[79400000,239800000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual life-years saved by pharmaceutical innovations globally. Lichtenberg (2019, NBER WP 25483) found that drugs launched after 1981 saved 148.7M life-years in 2013 across 22 countries using 3-way fixed-effects regression (disease-country-year). 95% CI [79.4M, 239.8M] propagated from Table 2 regression standard errors (β₀₋₁₁=-0.031±0.008, β₁₂₊=-0.057±0.013).","displayName":"Annual Life-Years Saved by Pharmaceuticals","formatted":"148.70M life-years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"lichtenberg-life-years-saved-2019","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.nber.org/papers/w25483","stdError":null,"unit":"life-years","value":148700000},"PHARMA_ROI_CURRENT_SYSTEM_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/aligning-incentives.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"ROI for pharma R&D (2022 historic low from Deloitte study of top 20 pharma companies, down from 6.8% in 2021, recovered to 5.9% in 2024)","displayName":"Pharma ROI (Current System)","formatted":"1.2%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"pharma-roi-current","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.deloitte.com/ch/en/Industries/life-sciences-health-care/research/measuring-return-from-pharmaceutical-innovation.html","stdError":null,"unit":"percentage","value":0.012},"PHARMA_SUCCESS_RATE_CURRENT_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/fda-is-unsafe-and-ineffective.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Percentage of drugs that reach market in current system","displayName":"Pharma Drug Success Rate (Current System)","formatted":"10.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"drug-trial-success-rate-12-pct","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd.2016.136","stdError":null,"unit":"percentage","value":0.1},"PHASE_1_PASSED_COMPOUNDS_GLOBAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[5000,10000],"conservative":null,"description":"Investigational compounds that have passed Phase I globally (midpoint of 5,000-10,000 range)","displayName":"Phase I-Passed Compounds Globally","formatted":"7,500 compounds","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"bio-clinical-development-2021","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://go.bio.org/rs/490-EHZ-999/images/ClinicalDevelopmentSuccessRates2011_2020.pdf","stdError":null,"unit":"compounds","value":7500},"PHASE_1_SAFETY_DURATION_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Phase I safety trial duration","displayName":"Phase I Safety Trial Duration","formatted":"2.3 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"bio-clinical-development-2021","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://go.bio.org/rs/490-EHZ-999/images/ClinicalDevelopmentSuccessRates2011_2020.pdf","stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":2.3},"PHASE_2_3_CLINICAL_TRIAL_COST_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.6062953256333146,0.7721369997641703],"conservative":null,"description":"Percentage of total clinical trial spending on Phase 2/3 efficacy testing (Phase 2: 24% + Phase 3: 45%)","displayName":"Phase 2/3 Share of Clinical Trial Costs","formatted":"69.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"global-clinical-trials-market-2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/04/19/2866012/0/en/Global-Clinical-Trials-Market-Research-Report-2024-An-83-16-Billion-Market-by-2030-AI-Machine-Learning-and-Blockchain-will-Transform-the-Clinical-Trials-Landscape.html","stdError":0.05,"unit":"percentage","value":0.69},"PHASE_3_TRIAL_COST_MIN":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-spec-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Phase 3 trial total cost (minimum)","displayName":"Phase 3 Trial Total Cost (Minimum)","formatted":"20.00M USD/trial","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"phase-3-cost-per-trial-range","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.sofpromed.com/how-much-does-a-clinical-trial-cost","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/trial","value":20000000},"PMC_PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_MEDIAN_COST_PER_PATIENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[19,478],"conservative":null,"description":"Median cost per patient in embedded pragmatic clinical trials (Ramsberg & Platt 2018: 108 trials reviewed, 64 with cost data). IQR: $19-$478 (2015 USD).","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Median Cost per Patient (PMC Review)","formatted":"97 USD/patient","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"pmc-pragmatic-trial-cost","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6508852/","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/patient","value":97},"POLIO_VACCINATION_ROI":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Return on investment from sustaining polio vaccination assets and integrating into expanded immunization programs","displayName":"Return on Investment from Sustaining Polio Vaccination Assets and Integrating into Expanded Immunization Programs","formatted":"39 ratio","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"polio-vaccination-roi","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/sustaining-polio-investments-offers-a-high-return","stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":39},"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_FOSSIL_FUEL_SUBSIDIES":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1100000000000,1500000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Global explicit fossil fuel subsidies (governments undercharging for energy supply costs). IMF 2022 estimate. These subsidies actively encourage consumption of negative-externality goods, working against climate goals. Note: IMF implicit subsidies (externalities) are much larger (~$7T).","displayName":"Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies","formatted":"$1.30T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"political-dysfunction-tax-paper-2025","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","stdError":100000000000,"unit":"USD","value":1300000000000},"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_HEALTH_OPPORTUNITY_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[20000000000000,80000000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual opportunity cost of slow-motion regulatory environment for health innovation. Murphy-Topel (2006) valued cancer cure at $50T (inflation-adjusted ~$100T in 2025). Longevity dividend of 1 extra year = $38T globally. PCTs could accelerate cures by 10+ years; NPV of 10-year delay at 3% discount = ~$25T. Conservative estimate: $34T annually in lives lost and healthspan denied.","displayName":"Global Health Opportunity Cost","formatted":"$34.00T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"political-dysfunction-tax-paper-2025","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","stdError":15000000000000,"unit":"USD","value":34000000000000},"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_LEAD_OPPORTUNITY_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[4000000000000,8000000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Global cost of lead exposure: World Bank/Lancet estimate. 765 million IQ points lost annually, 5.5 million premature CVD deaths. Cost to eliminate lead from paint, spices, batteries is trivial compared to damage. This is an arbitrage opportunity of immense scale that governance has failed to execute.","displayName":"Global Lead Poisoning Cost","formatted":"$6.00T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"political-dysfunction-tax-paper-2025","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","stdError":1000000000000,"unit":"USD","value":6000000000000},"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_MIGRATION_OPPORTUNITY_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[57000000000000,170000000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Unrealized output from migration restrictions. Clemens (2011) calculated eliminating labor mobility barriers could increase global GDP by 50-150%. At $115T global GDP, lower bound = $57T; upper bound = $170T. Even 5% workforce mobility would generate trillions, exceeding all foreign aid ever given. This is the largest single distortion in the global economy.","displayName":"Global Migration Opportunity Cost","formatted":"$57.00T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"political-dysfunction-tax-paper-2025","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","stdError":30000000000000,"unit":"USD","value":57000000000000},"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_SCIENCE_OPPORTUNITY_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/optimocracy-paper.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[2000000000000,10000000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual opportunity cost from underfunding high-ROI science (fusion, AI safety). Human Genome Project: $3.8B cost, $796B-1T impact (141:1 ROI). Fusion DEMO plant: $5-10B could solve energy/climate permanently. AI safety: <5% of capabilities spending despite existential stakes. Reallocating $200B from military waste at 20x multiplier = $4T foregone growth.","displayName":"Global Science Opportunity Cost","formatted":"$4.00T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"political-dysfunction-tax-paper-2025","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","stdError":2000000000000,"unit":"USD","value":4000000000000},"POLITICAL_SUCCESS_PROBABILITY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[0.001,0.1],"conservative":null,"description":"Estimated probability of treaty ratification and sustained implementation. Central estimate 1% is conservative. This assumes 99% chance of failure. ","displayName":"Political Success Probability","formatted":"1.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"icbl-ottawa-treaty","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/resources/documents/article/other/57jpjn.htm","stdError":0.02,"unit":"rate","value":0.01},"POLITICIAN_POST_OFFICE_CAREER_VALUE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/cost-of-change-analysis.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[5000000,20000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Net present value of post-office career premium for average congressperson (10 years x $1M/year premium). Based on documented cases: Gephardt $7M/year, Daschle $2M+/year.","displayName":"Post-Office Career Value (per politician)","formatted":"$10.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"opensecrets-revolving-door","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.opensecrets.org/revolving-door","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":10000000},"POST_1962_DRUG_APPROVAL_REDUCTION_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Reduction in new drug approvals after 1962 Kefauver-Harris Amendment (70% drop from 43→17 drugs/year)","displayName":"Post-1962 Drug Approval Reduction","formatted":"70.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"post-1962-drug-approval-drop","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7245331/","stdError":null,"unit":"percentage","value":0.7},"PRE_1962_DRUG_DEVELOPMENT_COST_1980_USD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/drug-development-cost-analysis.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[5200000,7800000],"conservative":null,"description":"Average drug development cost before 1962 FDA efficacy regulations, adjusted to 1980 dollars (Baily 1972)","displayName":"Pre-1962 Drug Development Cost (1980 Dollars)","formatted":"6.50M USD_1980","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"pre-1962-drug-costs-baily-1972","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://samizdathealth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/hlthaff.1.2.6.pdf","stdError":null,"unit":"USD_1980","value":6500000},"PRE_1962_DRUG_DEVELOPMENT_COST_2024_USD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/drug-development-cost-analysis.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[19500000,30000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Pre-1962 drug development cost adjusted to 2024 dollars ($6.5M × 3.80 = $24.7M, CPI-adjusted from Baily 1972)","displayName":"Pre-1962 Drug Development Cost (2024 Dollars)","formatted":"$24.70M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"pre-1962-drug-costs-baily-1972","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://samizdathealth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/hlthaff.1.2.6.pdf","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":24700000},"PRE_1962_PHYSICIAN_COUNT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/real-world-evidence-historical-success.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Estimated physicians conducting real-world efficacy trials pre-1962 (unverified estimate)","displayName":"Pre-1962 Physician Count (Unverified)","formatted":"144,000 physicians","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"pre-1962-physician-trials","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://thinkbynumbers.org/health/how-many-net-lives-does-the-fda-save/","stdError":null,"unit":"physicians","value":144000},"RARE_DISEASES_COUNT_GLOBAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[6000,10000],"conservative":null,"description":"Total number of rare diseases globally","displayName":"Total Number of Rare Diseases Globally","formatted":"7,000 diseases","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"95-pct-diseases-no-treatment","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-106774","stdError":null,"unit":"diseases","value":7000},"RECOVERY_TRIAL_COST_PER_PATIENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[400,2500],"conservative":null,"description":"RECOVERY trial cost per patient. Note: RECOVERY was an outlier - hospital-based during COVID emergency, minimal extra procedures, existing NHS infrastructure, streamlined consent. Replicating this globally will be harder.","displayName":"Recovery Trial Cost per Patient","formatted":"500 USD/patient","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"recovery-cost-500","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://manhattan.institute/article/slow-costly-clinical-trials-drag-down-biomedical-breakthroughs","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/patient","value":500},"RECOVERY_TRIAL_GLOBAL_LIVES_SAVED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/nih-fails-2-institute-health.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[500000,2000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Estimated lives saved globally by RECOVERY trial's dexamethasone discovery. NHS England estimate (March 2021). Based on Águas et al. Nature Communications 2021 methodology applying RECOVERY trial mortality reductions (36% ventilated, 18% oxygen) to global COVID hospitalizations. Wide uncertainty range reflects extrapolation assumptions.","displayName":"RECOVERY Trial Global Lives Saved","formatted":"1.00M lives","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"recovery-trial-1m-lives-saved","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.england.nhs.uk/2021/03/covid-treatment-developed-in-the-nhs-saves-a-million-lives/","stdError":null,"unit":"lives","value":1000000},"RECOVERY_TRIAL_TOTAL_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/nih-fails-2-institute-health.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[15000000,25000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Total cost of UK RECOVERY trial. Enrolled tens of thousands of patients across multiple treatment arms. Discovered dexamethasone reduces COVID mortality by ~1/3 in severe cases.","displayName":"RECOVERY Trial Total Cost","formatted":"$20.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"recovery-trial-82x-cost-reduction","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://manhattan.institute/article/slow-costly-clinical-trials-drag-down-biomedical-breakthroughs","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":20000000},"REGULATORY_DELAY_MEAN_AGE_OF_DEATH":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[56.97771953799889,66.92821998585023],"conservative":null,"description":"Mean age of preventable death from post-safety efficacy testing regulatory delay (Phase 2-4)","displayName":"Mean Age of Preventable Death from Post-Safety Efficacy Delay","formatted":"62 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"who-global-health-estimates-2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates","stdError":3,"unit":"years","value":62},"REGULATORY_DELAY_SUFFERING_PERIOD_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[4,9],"conservative":null,"description":"Pre-death suffering period during post-safety efficacy testing delay (average years lived with untreated condition while awaiting Phase 2-4 completion)","displayName":"Pre-Death Suffering Period During Post-Safety Efficacy Delay","formatted":"6 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"who-global-health-estimates-2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates","stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":6},"SEPT_11_DEATHS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Total deaths in the September 11, 2001 attacks. 2,977 victims (excluding 19 hijackers). Used as a reference point for scale comparisons.","displayName":"September 11 Deaths","formatted":"2,977 people","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"september-11-memorial","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.911memorial.org/911-faqs","stdError":null,"unit":"people","value":2977},"SINGAPORE_GDP_PER_CAPITA_PPP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Singapore GDP per capita (PPP-adjusted). Among highest in world, demonstrating that lean government can coexist with prosperity.","displayName":"Singapore GDP per Capita (PPP)","formatted":"$105.00K","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"worldbank-singapore-gdp","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://data.worldbank.org/country/singapore","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":105000},"SINGAPORE_GOVT_SPENDING_PCT_GDP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Singapore government spending as percentage of GDP. Less than HALF the US rate (15% vs 38%) yet achieves excellent outcomes through efficiency.","displayName":"Singapore Govt Spending (% GDP)","formatted":"15 percent","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"imf-singapore-spending","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/SGP","stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":15},"SINGAPORE_LIFE_EXPECTANCY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Singapore life expectancy at birth. 6.6 years LONGER than US (84.1 vs 77.5) despite government spending at less than half the rate.","displayName":"Singapore Life Expectancy","formatted":"84.1 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"who-life-expectancy","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates/ghe-life-expectancy-and-healthy-life-expectancy","stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":84.1},"SMALLPOX_ERADICATION_ROI":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Return on investment from smallpox eradication campaign","displayName":"Return on Investment from Smallpox Eradication Campaign","formatted":"280 ratio","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"smallpox-eradication-roi","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.csis.org/analysis/smallpox-eradication-model-global-cooperation","stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":280},"SMALLPOX_ERADICATION_TOTAL_BENEFIT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Total economic benefit from smallpox eradication campaign","displayName":"Total Economic Benefit from Smallpox Eradication Campaign","formatted":"$1.42B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"smallpox-eradication-roi","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.csis.org/analysis/smallpox-eradication-model-global-cooperation","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1420000000},"SMOKING_CESSATION_ANNUAL_BENEFIT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Estimated annual global economic benefit from smoking cessation programs","displayName":"Estimated Annual Global Economic Benefit from Smoking Cessation Programs","formatted":"12.00B USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"life-expectancy-gains-smoking-reduction","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1447499/","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":12000000000},"STANDARD_ECONOMIC_QALY_VALUE_USD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[100000,199282.19985850222],"conservative":null,"description":"Standard economic value per QALY","displayName":"Standard Economic Value per QALY","formatted":"150,000 USD/QALY","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"qaly-value","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://icer.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Reference-Case-4.3.25.pdf","stdError":30000,"unit":"USD/QALY","value":150000},"STANDARD_QALYS_PER_LIFE_SAVED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[23.281345588664056,46.49917996698386],"conservative":null,"description":"Standard QALYs per life saved (WHO life tables)","displayName":"Standard QALYs per Life Saved","formatted":"35 QALYs/life","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"qaly-value","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://icer.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Reference-Case-4.3.25.pdf","stdError":7,"unit":"QALYs/life","value":35},"SUGAR_SUBSIDY_COST_PER_PERSON_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/unrepresentative-democracy.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Annual cost of sugar subsidies per person","displayName":"Annual Cost of Sugar Subsidies per Person","formatted":"10 USD/person/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"sugar-subsidies-cost","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-24-106144","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person/year","value":10},"SWITZERLAND_DEFENSE_SPENDING_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Switzerland's defense spending as percentage of GDP (0.7%)","displayName":"Switzerland's Defense Spending as Percentage of GDP","formatted":"0.7%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"swiss-military-budget-0-7-pct-gdp","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locations=CH","stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.007},"SWITZERLAND_GDP_PER_CAPITA_K":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Switzerland GDP per capita","displayName":"Switzerland GDP per Capita","formatted":"$93.00K","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"swiss-vs-us-gdp-per-capita","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=CH","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":93000},"SWITZERLAND_GOVT_SPENDING_PCT_GDP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Switzerland government spending as percentage of GDP. 3 percentage points LOWER than US (35% vs 38%) yet achieves dramatically better outcomes.","displayName":"Switzerland Govt Spending (% GDP)","formatted":"35 percent","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"oecd-govt-spending","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-spending.htm","stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":35},"SWITZERLAND_LIFE_EXPECTANCY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/faq.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Switzerland life expectancy at birth. 6.5 years LONGER than US (84.0 vs 77.5) despite lower government spending as % of GDP.","displayName":"Switzerland Life Expectancy","formatted":"84 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"who-life-expectancy","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates/ghe-life-expectancy-and-healthy-life-expectancy","stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":84},"SWITZERLAND_MEDIAN_INCOME_PPP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Switzerland median household income (PPP-adjusted). Higher than US when adjusted for cost of healthcare and other expenses.","displayName":"Switzerland Median Income (PPP)","formatted":"$65.00K","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"oecd-median-income","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://data.oecd.org/hha/household-disposable-income.htm","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":65000},"TERRORISM_DEATHS_911":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Deaths from 9/11 terrorist attacks","displayName":"Deaths from 9/11 Terrorist Attacks","formatted":"2,996 deaths","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"chance-of-dying-from-terrorism-1-in-30m","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/terrorism-immigration-risk-analysis","stdError":null,"unit":"deaths","value":2996},"THALIDOMIDE_CASES_WORLDWIDE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[10000,20000],"conservative":null,"description":"Total thalidomide birth defect cases worldwide (1957-1962)","displayName":"Thalidomide Cases Worldwide","formatted":"15,000 cases","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"thalidomide-scandal","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thalidomide_scandal","stdError":null,"unit":"cases","value":15000},"THALIDOMIDE_DISABILITY_WEIGHT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[0.32,0.48],"conservative":null,"description":"Disability weight for thalidomide survivors (limb deformities, organ damage)","displayName":"Thalidomide Disability Weight","formatted":"0.4 ratio","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"thalidomide-survivors-health","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0210222","stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":0.4},"THALIDOMIDE_MORTALITY_RATE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.35,0.45],"conservative":null,"description":"Mortality rate for thalidomide-affected infants (died within first year)","displayName":"Thalidomide Mortality Rate","formatted":"40.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"thalidomide-scandal","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thalidomide_scandal","stdError":null,"unit":"percentage","value":0.4},"THALIDOMIDE_SURVIVOR_LIFESPAN":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[50,70],"conservative":null,"description":"Average lifespan for thalidomide survivors","displayName":"Thalidomide Survivor Lifespan","formatted":"60 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"thalidomide-survivors-health","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0210222","stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":60},"THALIDOMIDE_US_POPULATION_SHARE_1960":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.055,0.065],"conservative":null,"description":"US share of world population in 1960","displayName":"US Population Share 1960","formatted":"6.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"us-census-world-population-1960","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/international-programs/historical-est-worldpop.html","stdError":null,"unit":"percentage","value":0.06},"TRADITIONAL_PHASE3_COST_PER_PATIENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[20000,120000],"conservative":null,"description":"Phase 3 cost per patient (median from FDA study)","displayName":"Phase 3 Cost per Patient","formatted":"41,000 USD/patient","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"trial-costs-fda-study","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6248200/","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/patient","value":41000},"TREATMENT_DISABILITY_REDUCTION":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[0.15,0.35],"conservative":null,"description":"Average disability weight reduction from pharmaceutical treatment. Untreated chronic disease averages 0.35 disability weight, treated disease averages 0.10, difference is 0.25.","displayName":"Treatment Disability Reduction","formatted":"0.25 weight","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"gbd-disability-weights","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://ghdx.healthdata.org/record/ihme-data/gbd-2019-disability-weights","stdError":null,"unit":"weight","value":0.25},"US_ALZHEIMERS_ANNUAL_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/aligning-incentives.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[302000000000,408000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual US cost of Alzheimer's disease (direct and indirect)","displayName":"US Alzheimer's Annual Cost","formatted":"$355.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"disease-cost-alzheimers-1300b","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/dementia","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":355000000000},"US_CANCER_ANNUAL_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/aligning-incentives.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[177000000000,239000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual US cost of cancer (direct and indirect)","displayName":"US Cancer Annual Cost","formatted":"$208.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"disease-cost-cancer-1800b","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaoncology/fullarticle/2801798","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":208000000000},"US_CHRONIC_DISEASE_SPENDING_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-disease.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3300000000000,5000000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"US annual chronic disease spending","displayName":"US Annual Chronic Disease Spending","formatted":"4100.00B USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"us-chronic-disease-spending","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.cdc.gov/chronic-disease/data-research/facts-stats/index.html","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":4100000000000},"US_DIABETES_ANNUAL_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/aligning-incentives.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[278000000000,376000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual US cost of diabetes (direct and indirect)","displayName":"US Diabetes Annual Cost","formatted":"$327.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"disease-cost-diabetes-1500b","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://diabetesjournals.org/care/article/41/5/963/36522/Global-Economic-Burden-of-Diabetes-in-Adults","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":327000000000},"US_FEDERAL_SPENDING_2024":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"US federal government spending in FY2024. CBO reports outlays of $6.8T (23.9% of GDP). Includes mandatory spending, discretionary spending, and net interest ($888B).","displayName":"US Federal Spending (FY2024)","formatted":"$6.80T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"cbo-long-term-budget-2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60039","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":6800000000000},"US_FED_DISCRETIONARY_SPENDING_2024":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"US federal discretionary spending in FY2024. Approximately $886B defense + ~$814B non-defense discretionary = ~$1.7T. Used as denominator for discretionary efficiency rating (Cat 1 waste items are discretionary/fungible).","displayName":"US Federal Discretionary Spending (FY2024)","formatted":"$1.70T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"cbo-long-term-budget-2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60039","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1700000000000},"US_GDP_2024":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"US GDP in 2024 dollars for calculating policy costs as percentage of GDP.","displayName":"US GDP (2024)","formatted":"$28.78T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"worldbank-gdp","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=US","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":28780000000000},"US_GOVT_SPENDING_PCT_GDP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"US total government spending as percentage of GDP (federal + state + local). OECD average is ~40%, but US gets worse outcomes for similar spending.","displayName":"US Govt Spending (% GDP)","formatted":"38 percent","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"oecd-govt-spending","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-spending.htm","stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":38},"US_GOV_WASTE_AGRICULTURAL_SUBSIDIES":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[50000000000,120000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Deadweight loss from US agricultural subsidies. Direct subsidies ~$30B/yr but create larger distortions: overproduction, environmental damage, benefits concentrated in large farms (top 10% receive 78% of subsidies). Total welfare loss ~$75B. Textbook example of capture; very high economist consensus. [CATEGORY 1: Direct Spending]","displayName":"Agricultural Subsidies Deadweight Loss","formatted":"$75.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"ewg-farm-subsidies","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://farm.ewg.org/","stdError":25000000000,"unit":"USD","value":75000000000},"US_GOV_WASTE_CORPORATE_WELFARE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[150000000000,220000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Direct US federal corporate welfare: subsidies to agriculture ($16.4B), green energy tax credits, semiconductor aid, aviation support. Agricultural subsidies are highly regressive (top 10% receive 63%). Cato Institute forensic tally. [CATEGORY 1: Direct Spending]","displayName":"Corporate Welfare Waste","formatted":"$181.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"political-dysfunction-tax-paper-2025","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","stdError":20000000000,"unit":"USD","value":181000000000},"US_GOV_WASTE_DRUG_WAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[60000000000,150000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual cost of drug war: ~$41B federal drug control budget, ~$10B state/local enforcement, ~$40B incarceration and lost productivity. After 50+ years and $1T+ spent, drug use is higher than ever. [CATEGORY 1: Direct Spending]","displayName":"Drug War Cost","formatted":"$90.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"drugpolicyalliance2021","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://drugpolicy.org/drug-war-stats/","stdError":30000000000,"unit":"USD","value":90000000000},"US_GOV_WASTE_FOSSIL_FUEL_SUBSIDIES":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[30000000000,80000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"US explicit fossil fuel subsidies (direct payments, tax breaks). IMF estimates US total subsidies at $649B but ~92% is implicit (externalities). This figure includes only explicit subsidies (~$50B) for defensibility. [CATEGORY 1: Direct Spending]","displayName":"Fossil Fuel Subsidies (Explicit)","formatted":"$50.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"imf-fossilfuel2023","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/08/24/fossil-fuel-subsidies-surged-to-record-7-trillion","stdError":15000000000,"unit":"USD","value":50000000000},"US_GOV_WASTE_HEALTHCARE_INEFFICIENCY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1000000000000,1500000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"US healthcare spending inefficiency. US spends ~$4.5T/yr (18% GDP) vs 9-11% in comparable OECD countries with similar/better outcomes. Papanicolas et al. (2018 JAMA) and multiple studies document $1-1.5T in excess spending from administrative complexity, high prices, and poor care coordination. Very high economist consensus. [CATEGORY 4: System Inefficiency]","displayName":"Healthcare System Inefficiency","formatted":"$1.20T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"papanicolas2018","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2674671","stdError":150000000000,"unit":"USD","value":1200000000000},"US_GOV_WASTE_HOUSING_ZONING":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[500000000000,2000000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"GDP loss from housing/zoning restrictions. Original Hsieh-Moretti (2019 AEJ:Macro) estimate of 36% GDP growth reduction was substantially revised by Greaney (2023). Current $1.4T represents a moderate estimate; revised lower bound implies ~$500B. [CATEGORY 3: GDP Loss]","displayName":"Housing/Zoning Restrictions Cost","formatted":"$1.40T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"hsieh-moretti2019","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20170388","stdError":300000000000,"unit":"USD","value":1400000000000},"US_GOV_WASTE_MILITARY_OVERSPEND":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[500000000000,750000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"US military spending above 'Strict Deterrence' baseline. Current budget ~$900B supports global power projection (750+ bases). Strict Deterrence (nuclear triad $95B, Coast Guard $14B, National Guard $33B, Missile Defense $28B, Cyber $15B, defensive Navy/Air Force $100B) = ~$285B. Delta: $900B - $285B = $615B 'Hegemony Tax'. [CATEGORY 1: Direct Spending]","displayName":"Military Overspend","formatted":"$615.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"political-dysfunction-tax-paper-2025","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","stdError":75000000000,"unit":"USD","value":615000000000},"US_GOV_WASTE_REGULATORY_RED_TAPE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[290000000000,1000000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Deadweight loss from US regulatory red tape (procedural friction without safety benefits). Competitive Enterprise Institute estimates total regulatory burden at $2.15T; European studies find red tape costs 0.1-4% of GDP. Conservative estimate: ~2% of US GDP = $580B. [CATEGORY 2: Compliance Burden]","displayName":"Regulatory Red Tape Waste","formatted":"$580.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"political-dysfunction-tax-paper-2025","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","stdError":200000000000,"unit":"USD","value":580000000000},"US_GOV_WASTE_TARIFFS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[90000000000,250000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual GDP reduction from US tariffs and retaliation. Yale Budget Lab estimates 0.6% smaller GDP in long run, equivalent to $160B annually. Trade barriers reduce efficiency and raise consumer prices. [CATEGORY 3: GDP Loss]","displayName":"Tariff Cost (GDP Loss)","formatted":"$160.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"yalebudgetlab2025","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/where-we-stand-fiscal-economic-and-distributional-effects-all-us-tariffs-enacted-2025-through-april","stdError":50000000000,"unit":"USD","value":160000000000},"US_GOV_WASTE_TAX_COMPLIANCE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[450000000000,650000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual cost of US tax code compliance: 7.9 billion hours of lost productivity ($413B) plus $133B in out-of-pocket costs. Equals nearly 2% of GDP. Could be largely eliminated with simplified tax code or return-free filing. [CATEGORY 2: Compliance Burden]","displayName":"Tax Compliance Waste","formatted":"$546.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"taxfoundation2024-compliance","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/federal/irs-tax-compliance-costs/","stdError":50000000000,"unit":"USD","value":546000000000},"US_HEART_DISEASE_ANNUAL_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/aligning-incentives.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[309000000000,417000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual US cost of heart disease and stroke (direct and indirect)","displayName":"US Heart Disease Annual Cost","formatted":"$363.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"disease-cost-heart-disease-2100b","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.internationaljournalofcardiology.com/article/S0167-5273(13)02238-9/abstract","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":363000000000},"US_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_1880":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[38.9,39.9],"conservative":null,"description":"US life expectancy in 1880 (closest available data point to 1883).","displayName":"US Life Expectancy (1880)","formatted":"39.41 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"life-expectancy-increase-pre-1962","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/data/us-life-expectancy-fda-budget-1543-2019.csv","stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":39.41},"US_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_1962":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[69.8,70.3],"conservative":null,"description":"US life expectancy in 1962 (year of Kefauver-Harris Amendments).","displayName":"US Life Expectancy (1962)","formatted":"70.064 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"life-expectancy-increase-pre-1962","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/data/us-life-expectancy-fda-budget-1543-2019.csv","stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":70.064},"US_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_2019":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[78.6,79.1],"conservative":null,"description":"US life expectancy in 2019 (latest available data).","displayName":"US Life Expectancy (2019)","formatted":"78.862 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"post-1962-life-expectancy-slowdown","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/data/us-life-expectancy-fda-budget-1543-2019.csv","stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":78.862},"US_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_2023":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"US life expectancy at birth (2023). Lowest among high-income OECD countries despite highest healthcare spending.","displayName":"US Life Expectancy","formatted":"77.5 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"cdc-life-expectancy","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/life-expectancy.htm","stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":77.5},"US_MEDIAN_HOUSEHOLD_INCOME_2023":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"US median household income (2023). High in absolute terms but adjusted for healthcare costs and inequality, purchasing power is lower than peers.","displayName":"US Median Household Income","formatted":"$80.61K","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"census-income-2023","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2024/demo/p60-282.html","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":80610},"US_MENTAL_HEALTH_COST_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-disease.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[260000000000,450000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"US mental health costs (treatment + productivity loss)","displayName":"US Mental Health Costs","formatted":"350.00B USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"mental-health-burden","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.who.int/news/item/28-09-2001-the-world-health-report-2001-mental-disorders-affect-one-in-four-people","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":350000000000},"US_MILITARY_SPENDING_1939_ANNUAL_2024USD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/unrepresentative-democracy.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"US military spending in 1939 (pre-WW2 baseline) in constant 2024 dollars","displayName":"US Military Spending in 1939 (Constant 2024 Dollars)","formatted":"$29.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"us-military-spending-historical-constant-dollars","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.davemanuel.com/us-defense-spending-history-military-budget-data.php","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":29000000000},"US_MILITARY_SPENDING_1945_PEAK_ANNUAL_2024USD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"US military spending at WW2 peak (1945) in constant 2024 dollars","displayName":"US Military Spending at WW2 Peak (Constant 2024 Dollars)","formatted":"$1.42T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"us-military-spending-historical-constant-dollars","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.davemanuel.com/us-defense-spending-history-military-budget-data.php","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1420000000000},"US_MILITARY_SPENDING_1947_ANNUAL_2024USD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"US military spending in 1947 (post-WW2 trough, 2 years after peak) in constant 2024 dollars","displayName":"US Military Spending in 1947 (Constant 2024 Dollars)","formatted":"$176.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"us-military-spending-historical-constant-dollars","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.davemanuel.com/us-defense-spending-history-military-budget-data.php","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":176000000000},"US_MILITARY_SPENDING_2024_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/unrepresentative-democracy.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"US military spending in 2024 in constant dollars","displayName":"US Military Spending in 2024","formatted":"$886.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"us-military-spending-historical-constant-dollars","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.davemanuel.com/us-defense-spending-history-military-budget-data.php","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":886000000000},"US_MILITARY_SPENDING_PCT_GDP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"US military spending as percentage of GDP (2024)","displayName":"US Military Spending as Percentage of GDP","formatted":"3.5%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"us-military-budget-3-5-pct-gdp","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.statista.com/statistics/262742/countries-with-the-highest-military-spending/","stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.035},"US_POPULATION_2024":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/unrepresentative-democracy.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[330000000,340000000],"conservative":null,"description":"US population in 2024","displayName":"US Population in 2024","formatted":"335.00M people","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"us-voter-population","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025/2024-presidential-election-voting-registration-tables.html","stdError":null,"unit":"people","value":335000000},"US_SENATORS_FOR_TREATY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/cost-of-change-analysis.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Senators needed for treaty ratification (2/3 majority per Article II, Section 2)","displayName":"Senators for Treaty Ratification","formatted":"67 senators","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"us-senate-treaties","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/treaties.htm","stdError":null,"unit":"senators","value":67},"US_TOTAL_FEDERAL_CAMPAIGN_SPENDING_2024":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/cost-of-change-analysis.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[18000000000,22000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Total US federal election spending in 2024 cycle including presidential, congressional, party committees, and PACs. Source: FEC Statistical Summary 2024.","displayName":"US Federal Campaign Spending (2024)","formatted":"$20.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"fec-2024-summary","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/updates/statistical-summary-of-24-month-campaign-activity-of-the-2023-2024-election-cycle/","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":20000000000},"US_TOTAL_LOBBYING_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/algorithmic-public-administration-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3740000000,5060000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Total US federal lobbying expenditure in 2024 (record year). Source: OpenSecrets.","displayName":"US Total Lobbying (2024)","formatted":"$4.40B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"opensecrets-lobbying-2024","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2025/02/federal-lobbying-set-new-record-in-2024/","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":4400000000},"US_VOTE_DECISIVE_PROBABILITY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/unrepresentative-democracy.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Probability of a single vote being decisive in a US presidential election. Gelman, Silver, and Edlin (2012) estimate roughly 1 in 60 million on average, varying by state from 1 in 10 million (swing states) to 1 in 1 billion (safe states).","displayName":"Probability of Decisive Vote (US)","formatted":"1.6666666666666667e-8 probability","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"odds-of-decisive-vote","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://sites.stat.columbia.edu/gelman/research/published/probdecisive2.pdf","stdError":null,"unit":"probability","value":1.6666666666666667e-8},"VALLEY_OF_DEATH_ATTRITION_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[0.25,0.55],"conservative":null,"description":"Percentage of promising Phase 1-passed compounds abandoned primarily due to Phase 2/3 cost barriers (not scientific failure). Conservative estimate: many rare disease, natural compound, and low-margin drugs never tested.","displayName":"Valley of Death Attrition Rate","formatted":"40.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"valley-of-death-attrition","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3324971/","stdError":null,"unit":"percentage","value":0.4},"VALUE_OF_STATISTICAL_LIFE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[5000000,15000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Value of Statistical Life (conservative estimate)","displayName":"Value of Statistical Life","formatted":"$10.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"dot-vsl-13-6m","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/transportation-policy/revised-departmental-guidance-on-valuation-of-a-statistical-life-in-economic-analysis","stdError":3000000,"unit":"USD","value":10000000},"VENTURE_GROSS_RETURN":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/earth-optimization-prize-fund.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.13,0.22],"conservative":null,"description":"Venture capital / private equity gross return (before 2-and-20 fees). Cambridge Associates US VC index 25-year pooled gross IRR. The Prize Fund charges zero fees, so gross return is the correct baseline. Lockup premium is already embedded: VC/PE IS illiquid.","displayName":"Venture Capital Gross Return","formatted":"0.17 percent","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.17},"VITAMIN_A_COST_PER_DALY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Cost per DALY for vitamin A supplementation programs (India: $23-50; Africa: $40-255; wide variation by region and baseline VAD prevalence). Using India midpoint as conservative estimate.","displayName":"Vitamin A Supplementation Cost per DALY","formatted":"37 USD/DALY","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"vitamin-a-cost-per-daly","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0012046","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/DALY","value":37},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_1900_FREEZE_BASELINE_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[50000000000,90000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Global military spending in 1900 in constant 2023 USD, from the Correlates of War National Material Capabilities (NMC) dataset (knowledge/data/global-military-spending-1900-2024-constant-2023-usd.csv, COW_NMC source). Used as the annual real spending cap in the 1900-freeze counterfactual.","displayName":"1900 Military Spending Freeze Baseline","formatted":"66.10B USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"correlates-of-war-nmc","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/national-material-capabilities/","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":66100000000},"WATER_FLUORIDATION_ANNUAL_BENEFIT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Estimated annual global economic benefit from water fluoridation programs","displayName":"Estimated Annual Global Economic Benefit from Water Fluoridation Programs","formatted":"800.00M USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"clean-water-sanitation-roi","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://news.un.org/en/story/2014/11/484032","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":800000000},"WATER_FLUORIDATION_ROI":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Return on investment from water fluoridation programs","displayName":"Return on Investment from Water Fluoridation Programs","formatted":"23 ratio","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"clean-water-sanitation-roi","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://news.un.org/en/story/2014/11/484032","stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":23},"WHO_QALY_THRESHOLD_COST_EFFECTIVE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Cost-effectiveness threshold widely used in US health economics ($50,000/QALY, from 1980s dialysis costs)","displayName":"Cost-Effectiveness Threshold ($50,000/QALY)","formatted":"50,000 USD/QALY","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"who-cost-effectiveness-threshold","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5193154/","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/QALY","value":50000},"WORKFORCE_WITH_PRODUCTIVITY_LOSS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-disease.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Percentage of workforce experiencing productivity loss from chronic illness (28%)","displayName":"Percentage of Workforce Experiencing Productivity Loss from Chronic Illness","formatted":"28.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"chronic-illness-workforce-productivity-loss","sourceType":"external","sourceUrl":"https://www.ibiweb.org/resources/chronic-conditions-in-the-us-workforce-prevalence-trends-and-productivity-impacts","stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.28},"ADDITIONAL_DRUGS_FROM_COST_ELIMINATION":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[13.109307444269922,27.532282157289686],"conservative":null,"description":"Additional drug approvals per year when Phase 2/3 cost barrier eliminated. Assumes valley-of-death compounds (abandoned due to cost) would have similar success rate to funded compounds.","displayName":"Additional Drug Approvals from Cost Elimination","formatted":"20 drugs/year","formula":"CURRENT_APPROVALS × VALLEY_OF_DEATH_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDrugs_{new} \\\\\n= Drugs_{ann,curr} \\times Attrition_{valley} \\\\\n= 50 \\times 40\\% \\\\\n= 20\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"drugs/year","value":20},"APOCALYPSE_MARKUP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/extinction-surplus.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"The Apocalypse Markup: total military spending beyond the Price of Apocalypse. The amount governments spend above what is needed to trigger nuclear winter and end civilization once.","displayName":"Apocalypse Markup","formatted":"$2.72T","formula":"GLOBAL_MILITARY_SPENDING_ANNUAL_2024 - PRICE_OF_APOCALYPSE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nM_{apocalypse} = Spending_{mil} - P_{apocalypse} = \\$2.72T - \\$752M = \\$2.72T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } P_{apocalypse} = \\frac{S_{nuke}}{Overkill_{winter}} = \\frac{\\$92B}{122} = \\$752M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Overkill_{winter} = \\frac{W_{global}}{W_{winter}} = \\frac{12{,}200}{100} = 122\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":2719248427416.0605},"APOCALYPSE_MARKUP_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/extinction-surplus.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[1258.8061025301527,5812.080956908677],"conservative":null,"description":"How many times total military spending exceeds the Price of Apocalypse. The markup multiplier on the cost of ending civilization.","displayName":"Apocalypse Markup Multiplier","formatted":"3,619.078 x","formula":"GLOBAL_MILITARY_SPENDING_ANNUAL_2024 / PRICE_OF_APOCALYPSE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nM_{apocalypse,x} = \\frac{Spending_{mil}}{P_{apocalypse}} = \\frac{\\$2.72T}{\\$752M} = 3{,}620\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } P_{apocalypse} = \\frac{S_{nuke}}{Overkill_{winter}} = \\frac{\\$92B}{122} = \\$752M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Overkill_{winter} = \\frac{W_{global}}{W_{winter}} = \\frac{12{,}200}{100} = 122\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":3619.078260869565},"BEST_PRACTICE_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_GAIN":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1.81452000943318,8.448186974667399],"conservative":null,"description":"Gap between current global life expectancy and the best life expectancy achieved by a major country today. Used as a non-arbitrary governance/public-health uplift benchmark rather than capping Wishonia at today's global average.","displayName":"Best-Practice Life Expectancy Gain","formatted":"5.099999999999994 years","formula":"max(SWITZERLAND_LIFE_EXPECTANCY, SINGAPORE_LIFE_EXPECTANCY) - GLOBAL_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\Delta LE_{best} \\\\\n= \\max\\left(LE_{CH}, LE_{SG}\\right) - LE_{global}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":5.099999999999994},"BULLETS_PER_PERSON_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/extinction-surplus.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[583.3925241980181,1273.6806203353235],"conservative":null,"description":"Number of bullets per person on Earth that could be purchased annually with the global military budget. A purchasing power metric illustrating the scale of military spending.","displayName":"Bullets Purchasable Per Person Per Year","formatted":"850 rounds/person/year","formula":"GLOBAL_BULLETS_PURCHASABLE_ANNUAL / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nn_{bullets/person} = \\frac{N_{bullets,yr}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{6.8T}{8B} = 850\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{bullets,yr} = \\frac{Spending_{mil}}{c_{bullet}} = \\frac{\\$2.72T}{\\$0.4} = 6.8T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rounds/person/year","value":850},"CELL_THERAPY_DISEASE_COMBINATIONS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[265999.48647766165,914503.0646976066],"conservative":null,"description":"Cell therapy approach-disease combinations","displayName":"Cell Therapy Combinations","formatted":"500,000 combinations","formula":"CELL_APPROACHES × DISEASES","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCombos_{cell} \\\\\n= N_{cell} \\times N_{diseases,trial} \\\\\n= 500 \\times 1{,}000 \\\\\n= 500{,}000\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"combinations","value":500000},"CHAIN_ENGAGE_PROBABILITY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/recruitment-and-propaganda-plan.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.03907507670593218,0.1812023183265549],"conservative":null,"description":"Probability someone engages with the idea (1 - dismissal rate)","displayName":"Engagement Rate","formatted":"10.0%","formula":"1 - CHAIN_DISMISS_PROBABILITY","latex":"P_{engage} = 1 - P_{dismiss} = 1 - 90\\% = 10\\%","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.09999999999999998},"CHAIN_EXPECTED_ENGAGED_IMPLEMENTERS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.07358116033998585,53.74524080340745],"conservative":null,"description":"Expected number of implementers who engage (orbit reached x engagement rate x implementer count)","displayName":"Expected Engaged Implementers","formatted":"3.478910443764937 people","formula":"P_reach x CHAIN_ENGAGE_PROBABILITY x CHAIN_IMPLEMENTER_COUNT","latex":"E[N_{engaged}] = P_{reach} \\times P_{engage} \\times N_{impl}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"people","value":3.478910443764937},"CHAIN_IMPLEMENTER_COUNT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Total potential implementers (billionaires + world leaders)","displayName":"Potential Implementers","formatted":"2,976 people","formula":"CHAIN_GLOBAL_BILLIONAIRE_COUNT + CHAIN_WORLD_LEADER_COUNT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{impl} \\\\\n= N_{billionaire} + N_{leader} \\\\\n= 2{,}780 + 195 \\\\\n= 2{,}980\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"people","value":2976},"CHAIN_P_AT_LEAST_ONE_ENGAGES":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.07094010527859157,1],"conservative":null,"description":"Probability at least one implementer engages (information diffusion only; dominant strategy proof handles action)","displayName":"P(At Least One Engages)","formatted":"0.9692217015578317 percent","formula":"1 - CHAIN_P_NO_IMPLEMENTER_ENGAGES","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nP_{reach} = 1 - P_{none} = 1 - 3.08\\% = 96.9\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } P_{none} = \\left(1 - P_{reach} \\cdot P_{engage}\\right)^{N_{impl}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } P_{engage} = 1 - P_{dismiss} = 1 - 90\\% = 10\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{impl} = N_{billionaire} + N_{leader} = 2{,}780 + 195 = 2{,}980\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.9692217015578317},"CHAIN_P_ENCOUNTER_DIRECT_10YR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.0003124503823104252,0.1855631976474507],"conservative":null,"description":"Probability a given implementer's information orbit is reached by the content cascade","displayName":"Implementer Orbit Reach Probability","formatted":"1.2%","formula":"1 - (1 - CHAIN_IMPLEMENTER_ORBIT_SIZE / 5B)^(CHAIN_INITIAL_AUDIENCE x cascade_multiplier)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nP_{reach} \\\\\n= 1 - \\left(1 - \\frac{O_{impl}}{N}\\right)^{N_0 \\cdot \\sum_{i=0}^{3} R_{eff}^i}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.011689887243833796},"CHAIN_P_NO_IMPLEMENTER_ENGAGES":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2.789596358033324e-24,0.9290598947214084],"conservative":null,"description":"Probability that NO implementer engages (all orbits missed or all dismiss)","displayName":"P(No Implementer Engages)","formatted":"3.1%","formula":"(1 - P_reach x CHAIN_ENGAGE_PROBABILITY)^CHAIN_IMPLEMENTER_COUNT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nP_{none} \\\\\n= \\left(1 - P_{reach} \\cdot P_{engage}\\right)^{N_{impl}}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.030778298442168252},"CHRONIC_DISEASE_TREATED_PATIENTS_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[827291323.021963,1150395053.0077143],"conservative":null,"description":"Estimated unique patients receiving chronic disease treatment annually. Derived from IQVIA days of therapy (1.28T) divided by 365 days divided by 2.5 average medications per patient times 70% post-1962 drugs.","displayName":"Annual Chronic Disease Patients Treated","formatted":"981.92M people","formula":"GLOBAL_CHRONIC_THERAPY_DAYS ÷ 365 ÷ 2.5 × 0.70","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{treated} \\\\\n= DOT_{chronic} \\times 0.000767 \\\\\n= 1.28T \\times 0.000767 \\\\\n= 982M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"iqvia-global-medicines-2024","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://www.iqvia.com/insights/the-iqvia-institute/reports-and-publications/reports/the-global-use-of-medicines-2024-outlook-to-2028","stdError":null,"unit":"people","value":981917808.2191781},"CLINICAL_TRIAL_COST_PER_APPROVED_DRUG":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1093679986.6021376,1328959797.6305559],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual clinical trial spending per approved drug (trials only, excluding other R&D costs like discovery, preclinical, manufacturing)","displayName":"Clinical Trial Cost Per Approved Drug","formatted":"$1.20B","formula":"TOTAL_TRIAL_SPENDING / NEW_DRUGS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{trial,drug} \\\\\n= \\frac{Spending_{trials}}{Drugs_{ann,curr}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$60B}{50} \\\\\n= \\$1.2B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1200000000},"CLINICAL_TRIAL_COST_PER_PARTICIPANT_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[29752.923404236906,33642.67310380891],"conservative":null,"description":"Average annual cost per clinical trial participant (total spending ÷ participants)","displayName":"Annual Cost Per Clinical Trial Participant","formatted":"$31.58K","formula":"TOTAL_SPENDING / PARTICIPANTS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{trial,pt,ann} \\\\\n= \\frac{Spending_{trials}}{Slots_{curr}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$60B}{1.9M} \\\\\n= \\$31.6K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":31578.947368421053},"COMBINATION_THERAPY_DISEASE_SPACE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[21510368997.20582,81450272576.46573],"conservative":null,"description":"Total combination therapy space (pairwise drug combinations × diseases). Standard in oncology, HIV, cardiology.","displayName":"Combination Therapy Space","formatted":"45.12B combinations","formula":"DRUG_PAIRS × DISEASES","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSpace_{combo} = N_{combo} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 45.1M \\times 1{,}000 = 45.1B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{combo} = \\frac{N_{safe} \\cdot (N_{safe} - 1)}{2}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"combinations","value":45120250000},"COMBINATION_THERAPY_PAIRS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[26244027.23457158,69025575.04810166],"conservative":null,"description":"Unique pairwise drug combinations from known safe compounds (n choose 2)","displayName":"Pairwise Drug Combinations","formatted":"45.12M combinations","formula":"SAFE_COMPOUNDS_COUNT × (SAFE_COMPOUNDS_COUNT - 1) ÷ 2","latex":"N_{combo} = \\frac{N_{safe} \\cdot (N_{safe} - 1)}{2}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"combinations","value":45120250},"CONTRIBUTION_DALYS_PER_PCT_POINT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3612284295.9356604,8768248179.14337],"conservative":null,"description":"DALYs averted per percentage point of implementation probability shift. One percent of total DALYs from eliminating trial capacity bottleneck and efficacy lag.","displayName":"DALYs Averted per Percentage Point","formatted":"5.65B DALYs","formula":"TOTAL_TIMELINE_SHIFT_DALYS × 0.01","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDALYs_{pp} = DALYs_{max} \\times 0.01 = 565B \\times 0.01 = 5.65B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"DALYs","value":5652436733.509989},"CONTRIBUTION_EV_PER_PCT_POINT_TREATY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[10533.27746201304,98220.19242804311],"conservative":null,"description":"Personal expected value per percentage point of implementation probability shift under Treaty Trajectory. One percent of the per-capita lifetime income gain.","displayName":"Contribution EV per Percentage Point (Treaty)","formatted":"$34.80K","formula":"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_LIFETIME_INCOME_GAIN_PER_CAPITA × 0.01","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nEV_{pp,treaty} = \\Delta Y_{lifetime,treaty} \\times 0.01 = \\$3.48M \\times 0.01 = \\$34.8K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta Y_{lifetime,treaty} = Y_{cum,treaty} - Y_{cum,earth} = \\$4.58M - \\$1.1M = \\$3.48M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,treaty} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,treaty})((1+g_{pc,treaty})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,treaty}} + \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$919T}{9.2B} = \\$99.9K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease} + \\left(\\frac{Loss_{lag}}{GDP_{global}}\\right))^{\\frac{1}{20}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times (3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 1, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 4 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 2, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 5 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 5, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 8 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 10, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL})) / N_{untreated}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{lag} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times (LE_{global} - Age_{death,delay}) \\times Value_{QALY} = 102M \\times (79 - 62) \\times \\$150K = \\$259T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{remaining} = LE_{global} - Age_{median} = 79 - 30.5 = 48.5\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,earth} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":34800.17193154482},"CONTRIBUTION_EV_PER_PCT_POINT_TREATY_BLEND":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[26187.650912228204,157437.27934091745],"conservative":null,"description":"Blended personal expected value per percentage point of implementation probability shift under Treaty Trajectory.","displayName":"Contribution EV per Percentage Point (Treaty, Blended)","formatted":"$67.35K","formula":"TREATY_PERSONAL_UPSIDE_BLEND × 0.01","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nEV_{pp,treaty,blend} = Upside_{blend,treaty} \\times 0.01 = \\$6.74M \\times 0.01 = \\$67.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Upside_{blend,treaty} = \\Delta Y_{lifetime,treaty} + Value_{HALE,treaty} = \\$3.48M + \\$3.26M = \\$6.74M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta Y_{lifetime,treaty} = Y_{cum,treaty} - Y_{cum,earth} = \\$4.58M - \\$1.1M = \\$3.48M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,treaty} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,treaty})((1+g_{pc,treaty})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,treaty}} + \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$919T}{9.2B} = \\$99.9K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease} + \\left(\\frac{Loss_{lag}}{GDP_{global}}\\right))^{\\frac{1}{20}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times (3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 1, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 4 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 2, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 5 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 5, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 8 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 10, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL})) / N_{untreated}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{lag} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times (LE_{global} - Age_{death,delay}) \\times Value_{QALY} = 102M \\times (79 - 62) \\times \\$150K = \\$259T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{remaining} = LE_{global} - Age_{median} = 79 - 30.5 = 48.5\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,earth} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Value_{HALE,treaty} = \\Delta HALE_{treaty,15} \\times Value_{QALY} = 21.7 \\times \\$150K = \\$3.26M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{treaty,15} = f_{cure,15,treaty} \\times \\Delta_{HALE} + \\Delta HALE_{treaty,longevity,15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times (3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 1, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 4 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 2, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 5 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 5, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 10, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL})) / N_{untreated}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{treaty,longevity,15} = T_{extend} \\times \\rho_{HALE,15} \\times f_{cure,15,treaty} = 20 \\times 30\\% \\times 100\\% = 6\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":67350.17193154483},"CONTRIBUTION_EV_PER_PCT_POINT_WISHONIA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[138655.87505326734,2863842.1666223365],"conservative":null,"description":"Personal expected value per percentage point of implementation probability shift under Wishonia Trajectory. One percent of the per-capita lifetime income gain.","displayName":"Contribution EV per Percentage Point (Wishonia)","formatted":"$472.06K","formula":"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_LIFETIME_INCOME_GAIN_PER_CAPITA × 0.01","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nEV_{pp,wish} = \\Delta Y_{lifetime,wish} \\times 0.01 = \\$47.2M \\times 0.01 = \\$472K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta Y_{lifetime,wish} = Y_{cum,wish} - Y_{cum,earth} = \\$48.3M - \\$1.1M = \\$47.2M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,wish} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,wish})((1+g_{pc,wish})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,wish}} + \\bar{y}_{wish,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{wish,20} = \\frac{GDP_{wish,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$10700T}{9.2B} = \\$1.16M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{wish,20}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{17}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{20}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{remaining} = LE_{global} - Age_{median} = 79 - 30.5 = 48.5\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,earth} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":472058.6748361206},"CONTRIBUTION_EV_PER_PCT_POINT_WISHONIA_BLEND":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[162744.80298030906,2936654.0920672673],"conservative":null,"description":"Blended personal expected value per percentage point of implementation probability shift under Wishonia Trajectory.","displayName":"Contribution EV per Percentage Point (Wishonia, Blended)","formatted":"$512.26K","formula":"WISHONIA_PERSONAL_UPSIDE_BLEND × 0.01","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nEV_{pp,wish,blend} = Upside_{blend,wish} \\times 0.01 = \\$51.2M \\times 0.01 = \\$512K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Upside_{blend,wish} = \\Delta Y_{lifetime,wish} + Value_{HALE,wish} = \\$47.2M + \\$4.02M = \\$51.2M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta Y_{lifetime,wish} = Y_{cum,wish} - Y_{cum,earth} = \\$48.3M - \\$1.1M = \\$47.2M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,wish} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,wish})((1+g_{pc,wish})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,wish}} + \\bar{y}_{wish,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{wish,20} = \\frac{GDP_{wish,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$10700T}{9.2B} = \\$1.16M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{wish,20}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{17}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{20}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{remaining} = LE_{global} - Age_{median} = 79 - 30.5 = 48.5\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,earth} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Value_{HALE,wish} = \\Delta HALE_{wish,15} \\times Value_{QALY} = 26.8 \\times \\$150K = \\$4.02M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{wish,15} = f_{cure,15,wish} \\times \\Delta_{HALE} + \\Delta HALE_{wish,extra,15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{15}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{wish,extra,15} = f_{cure,15,wish} \\times (\\Delta LE_{best} + T_{extend} \\times \\rho_{HALE,15})\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta LE_{best} = \\max\\left(LE_{CH}, LE_{SG}\\right) - LE_{global}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":512258.6748361206},"CONTRIBUTION_LIVES_SAVED_PER_PCT_POINT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[73977294.40275721,162246869.9905504],"conservative":null,"description":"Lives saved per percentage point of implementation probability shift. One percent of total lives saved from eliminating trial capacity bottleneck and efficacy lag.","displayName":"Lives Saved per Percentage Point","formatted":"107.46M lives","formula":"TOTAL_TIMELINE_SHIFT_LIVES_SAVED × 0.01","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nLives_{pp} = Lives_{max} \\times 0.01 = 10.7B \\times 0.01 = 107M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{max} = Deaths_{disease,daily} \\times T_{accel,max} \\times 338 = 150{,}000 \\times 212 \\times 338 = 10.7B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"lives","value":107455177.4859972},"CONTRIBUTION_SUFFERING_HOURS_PER_PCT_POINT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[13620765757362.627,26160687085426.156],"conservative":null,"description":"Suffering hours prevented per percentage point of implementation probability shift. One percent of total suffering hours from eliminating trial capacity bottleneck and efficacy lag.","displayName":"Suffering Hours Prevented per Percentage Point","formatted":"19310.98B hours","formula":"TOTAL_TIMELINE_SHIFT_SUFFERING_HOURS × 0.01","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nHours_{pp} = Hours_{suffer,max} \\times 0.01 = 1930T \\times 0.01 = 19.3T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Hours_{suffer,max} = DALYs_{max} \\times Pct_{YLD} \\times 8760 = 565B \\times 0.39 \\times 8760 = 1930T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"hours","value":19310984856363.527},"CONVENTIONAL_RETIREMENT_HORIZON_MULTIPLE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/earth-optimization-prize-fund.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2.144867844917442,3.066863226999378],"conservative":null,"description":"Compound multiple for conventional retirement investing over the PRIZE pool resolution horizon (tied to the destructive economy 50% threshold year).","displayName":"Conventional Retirement Horizon Multiple","formatted":"2.5718410065633592 x","formula":"(1 + CONVENTIONAL_RETIREMENT_RETURN) ^ (DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_50PCT_YEAR - DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_BASE_YEAR)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nM_{retire} = (1 + r_{retire}) ^{Y_{50\\%} - Y_0}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{50\\%} = Y_0 + \\frac{\\ln\\left(0.50 / \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_PCT\\_GDP}\\right)}{\\ln\\left(1 + \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_GROWTH} - \\text{GDP\\_GROWTH}\\right)}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{destruct:GDP} = \\frac{Cost_{destruct}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$13.2T}{\\$115T} = 11.5\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{destruct} = Spending_{mil} + Cost_{cyber} = \\$2.72T + \\$10.5T = \\$13.2T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":2.5718410065633592},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_DRUGS_NEVER_DEVELOPED_VSL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1687716309004259.8,4500000000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Corporate-defendant wrongful-death valuation for the aggressive prosecutor estimate of deaths from drugs never developed.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Drugs Never Developed VSL","formatted":"$3000.00T","formula":"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_DRUGS_NEVER_DEVELOPED_DEATHS * VALUE_OF_STATISTICAL_LIFE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nV_{neverdev,VSL} \\\\\n= Deaths_{neverdev} \\times VSL \\\\\n= 300M \\times \\$10M \\\\\n= \\$3000T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":3000000000000000},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_EFFICACY_LAG_DEATHS_VSL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[314545453188383.5,2267150113928112],"conservative":null,"description":"Corporate-defendant wrongful-death valuation for existing-drug efficacy-lag deaths using the standard value of a statistical life.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Efficacy Lag Deaths VSL","formatted":"$1016.12T","formula":"EXISTING_DRUGS_EFFICACY_LAG_DEATHS_TOTAL * VALUE_OF_STATISTICAL_LIFE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nV_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1016116666666666.6},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_FORWARD_SETTLEMENT_VALUE_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/court-of-humanity.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[7782477.739564056,12172153.00621689],"conservative":null,"description":"Forward treaty settlement value per living human from the 1% Treaty impact model. Kept separate from historical corporate damages.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Forward Settlement Value Per Capita","formatted":"10.60M USD/person","formula":"DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_PLUS_EFFICACY_LAG_ECONOMIC_VALUE / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nV_{settlement,pc} = \\frac{Value_{max}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$84800T}{8B} = \\$10.6M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Value_{max} = DALYs_{max} \\times Value_{QALY} = 565B \\times \\$150K = \\$84800T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":10598318.87533123},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PENTAGON_FCA_PENALTY_INCREMENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"False Claims Act-style penalty increment on Pentagon unaccounted funds, calculated as treble exposure minus principal so the principal is not counted twice.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Pentagon FCA Penalty Increment","formatted":"$4.92T","formula":"PENTAGON_UNACCOUNTED_FALSE_CLAIMS_ANALOG_EXPOSURE - PENTAGON_UNACCOUNTED_FUNDS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nPenalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":4920000000000},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROPERTY_ENVIRONMENTAL_DESTRUCTION":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[36143663183398.266,63673509075913.79],"conservative":null,"description":"Property and environmental destruction from war since 1900, separated from war death valuation to avoid adding the QALY component embedded in the broader historical sunk-cost parameter.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Property Plus Environmental Destruction","formatted":"$50.00T","formula":"WAR_PROPERTY_DESTRUCTION_SINCE_1900 + WAR_ENVIRONMENTAL_DESTRUCTION_SINCE_1900","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{property+env} \\\\\n= D_{property} + D_{env} \\\\\n= \\$45T + \\$5T \\\\\n= \\$50T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":50000000000000},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_BASE_ASK_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[487689.95742848073,1287473.5995737363],"conservative":null,"description":"Aggressive corporate-liability prosecutor base ask per living human.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Prosecutor Base Ask Per Capita","formatted":"913,218.971 USD/person","formula":"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_BASE_ASK_TOTAL / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,ask,pc} = \\frac{D_{corp,ask}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$7310T}{8B} = \\$913K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,ask} = D_{corp,floor} + V_{neverdev,VSL} = \\$4310T + \\$3000T = \\$7310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{neverdev,VSL} = Deaths_{neverdev} \\times VSL = 300M \\times \\$10M = \\$3000T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":913218.9708806707},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_BASE_ASK_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3892493716349089.5,10340149635944944],"conservative":null,"description":"Aggressive corporate-liability prosecutor base ask: strict floor plus the aggressive pleading estimate for deaths from drugs never developed. Excludes punitive damages, disgorgement, ongoing lost-income damages, and forward treaty settlement value.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Prosecutor Base Ask Total","formatted":"$7305.75T","formula":"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STRICT_FLOOR_TOTAL + CORPORATE_DAMAGES_DRUGS_NEVER_DEVELOPED_VSL","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,ask} = D_{corp,floor} + V_{neverdev,VSL} = \\$4310T + \\$3000T = \\$7310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{neverdev,VSL} = Deaths_{neverdev} \\times VSL = 300M \\times \\$10M = \\$3000T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":7305751767045366},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_AGING_INTAKE_EXPOSURE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[-3240433850791136,34362615569364576],"conservative":null,"description":"Gross pleading exposure for the overlapping aging intake class valued at VSL. Displayed separately because it overlaps with the broader disease-death class.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Prosecutor Gross Aging Intake Exposure","formatted":"$17830.85T","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_AGING_PLAINTIFFS * VALUE_OF_STATISTICAL_LIFE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,aging,gross} = N_{plaintiffs,aging} \\times VSL = 1.78B \\times \\$10M = \\$17800T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{plaintiffs,aging} = T_{post,aging} \\times Deaths_{curable,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,death} = 35 \\times 55M \\times 92.6\\% = 1.78B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,aging} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{aging,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{aging,plead} = Y_{disease,plead} + T_{aging,lag} = 1{,}950 + 40 = 1{,}990\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":17830853020914020},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_DISEASE_DALY_EXPOSURE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[16290743642563936,34375762231099856],"conservative":null,"description":"Gross pleading exposure for post-cutoff disease DALYs valued at the standard QALY value. This is disease-year and suffering exposure, not a final non-duplicative award.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Prosecutor Gross Disease DALY Exposure","formatted":"$30011.41T","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_DISEASE_DALYS * STANDARD_ECONOMIC_QALY_VALUE_USD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,DALY,gross} = DALYs_{post,disease} \\times Value_{QALY} = 200B \\times \\$150K = \\$30000T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{post,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} = 75 \\times 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% = 200B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,disease} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{disease,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":30011409759876064},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_MEDICAL_MISALLOCATION_EXPOSURE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[14842476689391028,62190308134697080],"conservative":null,"description":"Gross pleading exposure for post-cutoff medical misallocation disease plaintiffs valued at VSL. This is pleading exposure, not a final non-duplicative award.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Prosecutor Gross Medical Misallocation Exposure","formatted":"$38208.97T","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_DISEASE_PLAINTIFFS * VALUE_OF_STATISTICAL_LIFE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,med,gross} = N_{plaintiffs,disease} \\times VSL = 3.82B \\times \\$10M = \\$38200T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{plaintiffs,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times Deaths_{curable,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,death} = 75 \\times 55M \\times 92.6\\% = 3.82B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,disease} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{disease,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":38208970759101470},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_PLEADING_EXPOSURE_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[2262175.2814962254,8482391.365931023],"conservative":null,"description":"Gross death-based pleading exposure per living human if the judgment were distributed as universal residual restitution. This is not a final award.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Prosecutor Gross Pleading Exposure Per Living Human","formatted":"5.31M USD/person","formula":"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_PLEADING_EXPOSURE_TOTAL / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,plead,gross,pc} = \\frac{D_{corp,plead,gross}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$42500T}{8B} = \\$5.31M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,plead,gross} = D_{corp,floor} + D_{corp,med,gross} = \\$4310T + \\$38200T = \\$42500T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,med,gross} = N_{plaintiffs,disease} \\times VSL = 3.82B \\times \\$10M = \\$38200T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{plaintiffs,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times Deaths_{curable,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,death} = 75 \\times 55M \\times 92.6\\% = 3.82B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,disease} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{disease,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":5314340.315768355},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_PLEADING_EXPOSURE_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[18311735027287080,67406500642135610],"conservative":null,"description":"Aggressive prosecutor gross pleading exposure: strict non-duplicative floor plus gross medical misallocation exposure. This is gross pleading exposure, not a final award.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Prosecutor Gross Pleading Exposure Total","formatted":"$42514.72T","formula":"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STRICT_FLOOR_TOTAL + CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_MEDICAL_MISALLOCATION_EXPOSURE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,plead,gross} = D_{corp,floor} + D_{corp,med,gross} = \\$4310T + \\$38200T = \\$42500T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,med,gross} = N_{plaintiffs,disease} \\times VSL = 3.82B \\times \\$10M = \\$38200T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{plaintiffs,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times Deaths_{curable,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,death} = 75 \\times 55M \\times 92.6\\% = 3.82B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,disease} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{disease,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":42514722526146840},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_PLEADING_EXPOSURE_WITH_DALYS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[37041059260075880,99182556494465180],"conservative":null,"description":"Aggressive prosecutor stacked gross pleading exposure: strict floor plus post-cutoff disease-death VSL exposure plus post-cutoff disease DALY exposure. This intentionally shows the full pleading stack and may overlap; it is not a final non-duplicative award.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Prosecutor Gross Pleading Exposure With DALYs","formatted":"$72526.13T","formula":"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STRICT_FLOOR_TOTAL + CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_MEDICAL_MISALLOCATION_EXPOSURE + CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_DISEASE_DALY_EXPOSURE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,plead,DALY} = D_{corp,floor} + D_{corp,med,gross} + D_{corp,DALY,gross} = \\$4310T + \\$38200T + \\$30000T = \\$72500T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,med,gross} = N_{plaintiffs,disease} \\times VSL = 3.82B \\times \\$10M = \\$38200T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{plaintiffs,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times Deaths_{curable,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,death} = 75 \\times 55M \\times 92.6\\% = 3.82B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,disease} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{disease,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,DALY,gross} = DALYs_{post,disease} \\times Value_{QALY} = 200B \\times \\$150K = \\$30000T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{post,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} = 75 \\times 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% = 200B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":72526132286022910},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_PLEADING_EXPOSURE_WITH_DALYS_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[4573012.000524101,12479765.152367432],"conservative":null,"description":"Gross stacked pleading exposure per living human if the death and DALY pleading stack were distributed as universal residual restitution. This is not a final award.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Prosecutor Gross Pleading Exposure With DALYs Per Living Human","formatted":"9.07M USD/person","formula":"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_PLEADING_EXPOSURE_WITH_DALYS / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,plead,DALY,pc} = \\frac{D_{corp,plead,DALY}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$72500T}{8B} = \\$9.07M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,plead,DALY} = D_{corp,floor} + D_{corp,med,gross} + D_{corp,DALY,gross} = \\$4310T + \\$38200T + \\$30000T = \\$72500T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,med,gross} = N_{plaintiffs,disease} \\times VSL = 3.82B \\times \\$10M = \\$38200T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{plaintiffs,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times Deaths_{curable,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,death} = 75 \\times 55M \\times 92.6\\% = 3.82B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,disease} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{disease,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,DALY,gross} = DALYs_{post,disease} \\times Value_{QALY} = 200B \\times \\$150K = \\$30000T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{post,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} = 75 \\times 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% = 200B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":9065766.535752865},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STATE_FARM_CEILING_EXPOSURE_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[4876899.574284808,12874735.99573736],"conservative":null,"description":"Constitutional-ceiling exposure per living human under State Farm v. Campbell. This is exposure, not a typical award.","displayName":"Corporate Damages State Farm Constitutional-Ceiling Exposure Per Capita","formatted":"9.13M USD/person","formula":"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STATE_FARM_CEILING_EXPOSURE_TOTAL / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,StateFarm,pc} = \\frac{D_{corp,StateFarm}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$73100T}{8B} = \\$9.13M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,StateFarm} = D_{corp,ask} \\times m_{StateFarm} = \\$7310T \\times 10 = \\$73100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,ask} = D_{corp,floor} + V_{neverdev,VSL} = \\$4310T + \\$3000T = \\$7310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{neverdev,VSL} = Deaths_{neverdev} \\times VSL = 300M \\times \\$10M = \\$3000T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":9132189.708806708},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STATE_FARM_CEILING_EXPOSURE_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[38924937163490900,103401496359449440],"conservative":null,"description":"Constitutional-ceiling exposure under State Farm v. Campbell: prosecutor base ask plus a 9:1 punitive-to-compensatory multiplier. This is exposure, not a typical award.","displayName":"Corporate Damages State Farm Constitutional-Ceiling Exposure Total","formatted":"$73057.52T","formula":"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_BASE_ASK_TOTAL * CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STATE_FARM_CEILING_MULTIPLIER","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,StateFarm} = D_{corp,ask} \\times m_{StateFarm} = \\$7310T \\times 10 = \\$73100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,ask} = D_{corp,floor} + V_{neverdev,VSL} = \\$4310T + \\$3000T = \\$7310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{neverdev,VSL} = Deaths_{neverdev} \\times VSL = 300M \\times \\$10M = \\$3000T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":73057517670453660},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STRICT_FLOOR_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[268557.222847836,763113.3680215908],"conservative":null,"description":"Strict non-duplicative corporate damages floor per living human.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Strict Floor Per Capita","formatted":"538,218.971 USD/person","formula":"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STRICT_FLOOR_TOTAL / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,floor,pc} = \\frac{D_{corp,floor}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$4310T}{8B} = \\$538K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":538218.9708806707},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STRICT_FLOOR_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2137862816189208,6151673716780461],"conservative":null,"description":"Strict non-duplicative corporate damages floor: war-death VSL, existing-drug efficacy-lag VSL, property and environmental destruction, excess military spending above the 1900 freeze, and the Pentagon FCA-style penalty increment.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Strict Floor Total","formatted":"$4305.75T","formula":"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_WAR_DEATHS_VSL + CORPORATE_DAMAGES_EFFICACY_LAG_DEATHS_VSL + CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROPERTY_ENVIRONMENTAL_DESTRUCTION + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_EXCESS_MILITARY_SPENDING_ABOVE_1900_FREEZE + CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PENTAGON_FCA_PENALTY_INCREMENT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":4305751767045365.5},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_TREBLE_EXPOSURE_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1463069.8722854422,3862420.7987212087],"conservative":null,"description":"Treble-style exposure per living human under the False Claims Act-style corporate penalty analogy.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Treble-Style Exposure Per Capita","formatted":"2.74M USD/person","formula":"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_TREBLE_EXPOSURE_TOTAL / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,treble,pc} = \\frac{D_{corp,treble}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$21900T}{8B} = \\$2.74M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,treble} = D_{corp,ask} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$7310T \\times 3 = \\$21900T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,ask} = D_{corp,floor} + V_{neverdev,VSL} = \\$4310T + \\$3000T = \\$7310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{neverdev,VSL} = Deaths_{neverdev} \\times VSL = 300M \\times \\$10M = \\$3000T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":2739656.912642012},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_TREBLE_EXPOSURE_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[11677481149047268,31020448907834828],"conservative":null,"description":"Treble-style exposure if the prosecutor base ask is multiplied under a False Claims Act-style corporate penalty analogy.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Treble-Style Exposure Total","formatted":"$21917.26T","formula":"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_BASE_ASK_TOTAL * CORPORATE_ANALOG_FALSE_CLAIMS_TREBLE_MULTIPLIER","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,treble} = D_{corp,ask} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$7310T \\times 3 = \\$21900T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,ask} = D_{corp,floor} + V_{neverdev,VSL} = \\$4310T + \\$3000T = \\$7310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{neverdev,VSL} = Deaths_{neverdev} \\times VSL = 300M \\times \\$10M = \\$3000T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":21917255301136096},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_WAR_DEATHS_VSL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1422953040505334.2,4203896431174983],"conservative":null,"description":"Corporate-defendant wrongful-death valuation for war deaths since 1900 using the standard value of a statistical life.","displayName":"Corporate Damages War Deaths VSL","formatted":"$3100.00T","formula":"WAR_DEATHS_SINCE_1900 * VALUE_OF_STATISTICAL_LIFE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nV_{war,VSL} \\\\\n= Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL \\\\\n= 310M \\times \\$10M \\\\\n= \\$3100T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":3100000000000000},"CUMULATIVE_MILITARY_IN_GOVT_TRIAL_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/declaration-of-optimization.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[28333.333333333332,55889.07556635113],"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative military spending since 1913 expressed in equivalent years of government clinical trial spending ($170T / $4.5B per year)","displayName":"Military Spending in Government Clinical Trial Years","formatted":"37,777.778 years","formula":"CUMULATIVE_MILITARY_SPENDING_FED_ERA / GLOBAL_GOVERNMENT_CLINICAL_TRIALS_SPENDING_ANNUAL","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nYears_{mil \\to trials,gov} \\\\\n= \\frac{Spending_{mil,cum,fed}}{Spending_{trials,gov}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$170T}{\\$4.5B} \\\\\n= 37{,}800\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":37777.77777777778},"CURRENT_COMBINATION_EXPLORATION_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[6502291.282149569,25365767.396556832],"conservative":null,"description":"Years to test all pairwise drug combinations at current trial capacity. Combination therapy is standard in oncology, HIV, cardiology.","displayName":"Combination Therapy Exploration Time (Current)","formatted":"13.67M years","formula":"COMBINATION_SPACE ÷ CURRENT_TRIALS_PER_YEAR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{explore,combo} = \\frac{Space_{combo}}{Trials_{ann,curr}} = \\frac{45.1B}{3{,}300} = 13.7M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Space_{combo} = N_{combo} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 45.1M \\times 1{,}000 = 45.1B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{combo} = \\frac{N_{safe} \\cdot (N_{safe} - 1)}{2}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":13672803.030303031},"CURRENT_KNOWN_SAFE_EXPLORATION_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1765.458098687305,4385.591944591702],"conservative":null,"description":"Years to test all known safe drug-disease combinations at current global trial capacity","displayName":"Known Safe Exploration Time (Current)","formatted":"2,878.788 years","formula":"DRUG_DISEASE_COMBINATIONS ÷ CURRENT_TRIALS_PER_YEAR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{explore,safe} = \\frac{N_{combos}}{Trials_{ann,curr}} = \\frac{9.5M}{3{,}300} = 2{,}880\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{combos} = N_{safe} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 9{,}500 \\times 1{,}000 = 9.5M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":2878.787878787879},"CURRENT_PATIENT_PARTICIPATION_RATE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.0007611302629343297,0.0008193515131913133],"conservative":null,"description":"Current patient participation rate in clinical trials (0.08% = 1.9M participants / 2.4B disease patients)","displayName":"Current Patient Participation Rate in Clinical Trials","formatted":"0.1%","formula":"CURRENT_TRIAL_SLOTS / DISEASE_PATIENTS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nRate_{part} \\\\\n= \\frac{Slots_{curr}}{N_{patients}} \\\\\n= \\frac{1.9M}{2.4B} \\\\\n= 0.0792\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"clinical-trial-patient-participation-rate","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://www.fightcancer.org/policy-resources/barriers-patient-enrollment-therapeutic-clinical-trials-cancer","stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.0007916666666666666},"CURRENT_TOTAL_EXPLORATION_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[11201.130622442159,21403.744200401972],"conservative":null,"description":"Years to test all therapeutic combinations (known safe + emerging modalities) at current capacity","displayName":"Total Exploration Time (Current)","formatted":"15,606.061 years","formula":"TOTAL_COMBINATIONS ÷ CURRENT_TRIALS_PER_YEAR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{explore,total} = \\frac{N_{testable}}{Trials_{ann,curr}} = \\frac{51.5M}{3{,}300} = 15{,}600\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{testable} = N_{combos} + N_{emerging} = 9.5M + 42M = 51.5M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{combos} = N_{safe} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 9{,}500 \\times 1{,}000 = 9.5M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{emerging} = Combos_{gene} + Combos_{mRNA} + Combos_{epi} + Combos_{cell} = 20M + 20M + 1.5M + 500{,}000 = 42M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{gene} = N_{genes} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 20{,}000 \\times 1{,}000 = 20M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{mRNA} = N_{genes} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 20{,}000 \\times 1{,}000 = 20M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{epi} = N_{epi} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 1{,}500 \\times 1{,}000 = 1.5M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{cell} = N_{cell} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 500 \\times 1{,}000 = 500{,}000\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":15606.060606060606},"CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_AVG_INCOME_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Average income (GDP per capita) at year 15 under current trajectory.","displayName":"Current Trajectory Average Income at Year 15","formatted":"$18.71K","formula":"CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_15 / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2040_PROJECTED","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\bar{y}_{base,15} = \\frac{GDP_{base,15}}{Pop_{2040}} = \\frac{\\$167T}{8.9B} = \\$18.7K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,15} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{15}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":18713.96507272838},"CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_AVG_INCOME_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Average income (GDP per capita) at year 20 under current trajectory trajectory.","displayName":"Current Trajectory Average Income at Year 20","formatted":"$20.48K","formula":"CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20 ÷ GLOBAL_POPULATION_2045_PROJECTED","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":20482.705503629928},"CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_CUMULATIVE_LIFETIME_INCOME":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[991644.5894595918,1214013.3790588174],"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative per-capita income over an average remaining lifespan under current trajectory baseline trajectory. Uses the implied per-capita baseline CAGR from 2025 to 2045.","displayName":"Current Trajectory Cumulative Lifetime Income (Per Capita)","formatted":"$1.10M","formula":"GLOBAL_AVG_INCOME_2025 * (1+g_pc,base) * ((1+g_pc,base)^T - 1) / g_pc,base, where g_pc,base is implied by CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_AVG_INCOME_YEAR_20","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nY_{cum,earth} \\\\\n= \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1097018.4798561125},"CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Global GDP at year 15 under status-quo current trajectory growth.","displayName":"Current Trajectory GDP at Year 15","formatted":"$166.55T","formula":"GLOBAL_GDP_2025 * (1 + GDP_BASELINE_GROWTH_RATE)^15","latex":"GDP_{base,15} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{15}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":166554289147282.6},"CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Global GDP at year 20 under status-quo current trajectory growth.","displayName":"Current Trajectory GDP at Year 20","formatted":"$188.44T","formula":"GLOBAL_GDP_2025 × (1 + GDP_BASELINE_GROWTH_RATE)^20","latex":"GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":188440890633395.34},"DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_25PCT_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Calendar year when the destructive economy (military + cybercrime) reaches 25% of GDP at current growth rates. Historical precedent suggests societies become unstable when extraction rates exceed 20-30% of economic output.","displayName":"Year Destructive Economy Reaches 25% of GDP","formatted":"2,033 year","formula":"DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_BASE_YEAR + ln(0.25 / DESTRUCTIVE_PCT_GDP) / ln(1 + DESTRUCTIVE_GROWTH - GDP_GROWTH)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nY_{25\\%} = Y_0 + \\frac{\\ln\\left(0.25 / \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_PCT\\_GDP}\\right)}{\\ln\\left(1 + \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_GROWTH} - \\text{GDP\\_GROWTH}\\right)}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{destruct:GDP} = \\frac{Cost_{destruct}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$13.2T}{\\$115T} = 11.5\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{destruct} = Spending_{mil} + Cost_{cyber} = \\$2.72T + \\$10.5T = \\$13.2T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"year","value":2033},"DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_35PCT_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Calendar year when the destructive economy (military + cybercrime) reaches 35% of GDP at current growth rates. Historical evidence from the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, Argentina, and Zimbabwe shows that total extractive burdens of 35-45% consistently trigger self-reinforcing death spirals. This is the empirically-derived terminal parasitic load threshold.","displayName":"Year Destructive Economy Reaches 35% of GDP (Terminal Parasitic Load)","formatted":"2,037 year","formula":"DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_BASE_YEAR + ln(0.35 / DESTRUCTIVE_PCT_GDP) / ln(1 + DESTRUCTIVE_GROWTH - GDP_GROWTH)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nY_{35\\%} = Y_0 + \\frac{\\ln\\left(0.35 / \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_PCT\\_GDP}\\right)}{\\ln\\left(1 + \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_GROWTH} - \\text{GDP\\_GROWTH}\\right)}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{destruct:GDP} = \\frac{Cost_{destruct}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$13.2T}{\\$115T} = 11.5\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{destruct} = Spending_{mil} + Cost_{cyber} = \\$2.72T + \\$10.5T = \\$13.2T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"year","value":2037},"DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_50PCT_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Calendar year when the destructive economy (military + cybercrime) reaches 50% of GDP at current growth rates. At that point, half of all economic activity is destructive, so stealing starts to beat creating for individuals, firms, and states because whatever gets created gets looted fast enough to kill productive investment.","displayName":"Year Destructive Economy Reaches 50% of GDP","formatted":"2,040 year","formula":"DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_BASE_YEAR + ln(0.50 / DESTRUCTIVE_PCT_GDP) / ln(1 + DESTRUCTIVE_GROWTH - GDP_GROWTH)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nY_{50\\%} = Y_0 + \\frac{\\ln\\left(0.50 / \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_PCT\\_GDP}\\right)}{\\ln\\left(1 + \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_GROWTH} - \\text{GDP\\_GROWTH}\\right)}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{destruct:GDP} = \\frac{Cost_{destruct}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$13.2T}{\\$115T} = 11.5\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{destruct} = Spending_{mil} + Cost_{cyber} = \\$2.72T + \\$10.5T = \\$13.2T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"year","value":2040},"DFDA_ANNUAL_OPEX":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[27332850.088724613,55596655.430876665],"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual pragmatic trial platform operational costs (sum of all components: platform + staff + infra + regulatory + community)","displayName":"Total Annual Pragmatic Trial Platform Operational Costs","formatted":"40.00M USD/year","formula":"PLATFORM_MAINTENANCE + STAFF + INFRASTRUCTURE + REGULATORY + COMMUNITY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nOPEX_{trial} \\\\\n= Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} \\\\\n+ Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} \\\\\n= \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M \\\\\n= \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":40000000},"DFDA_BENEFIT_RD_ONLY_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[49230710022.124435,73053124934.98944],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual benefit from pragmatic trial R&D savings (trial cost reduction, secondary component)","displayName":"Annual R&D Savings from Pragmatic Trials","formatted":"58.64B USD/year","formula":"TRIAL_SPENDING × COST_REDUCTION_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nBenefit_{RD,ann} = Spending_{trials} \\times Reduce_{pct} = \\$60B \\times 97.7\\% = \\$58.6B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Reduce_{pct} = 1 - \\frac{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}}{Cost_{P3,pt}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$929}{\\$41K} = 97.7\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":58640487804.878044},"DFDA_COMBINED_TREATMENT_SPEEDUP_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[5.821417956409717,86.80477120196355],"conservative":null,"description":"Combined speedup factor for treatment discovery from pragmatic trial expansion. Trial capacity multiplier times valley of death rescue multiplier. Diseases that would take T years to get first treatment now take T/speedup years.","displayName":"Combined Treatment Discovery Speedup Multiplier","formatted":"17.259078805733385 multiplier","formula":"PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER × VALLEY_OF_DEATH_RESCUE_MULTIPLIER","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{speedup} = k_{capacity} \\times k_{rescue} = 12.3 \\times 1.4 = 17.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{rescue} = Attrition_{valley} + 1 = 40\\% + 1 = 1.4\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"multiplier","value":17.259078805733385},"DFDA_DIRECT_FUNDING_COST_PER_DALY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[0.2424806971775267,1.7516096850400424],"conservative":null,"description":"Cost per DALY at direct funding level for the therapeutic space exploration period. Still highly cost-effective vs bed nets.","displayName":"Direct Pragmatic Trial Funding Cost per DALY","formatted":"0.8415122325165139 USD/DALY","formula":"NPV_DIRECT_FUNDING ÷ DALYS_TIMELINE_SHIFT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{direct,DALY} = \\frac{NPV_{direct}}{DALYs_{max}} = \\frac{\\$476B}{565B} = \\$0.842\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } NPV_{direct} = \\frac{T_{queue,trial}}{Funding_{trial,ref} \\times r_{discount}} = \\frac{36}{\\$21.8B \\times 3\\%} = \\$476B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/DALY","value":0.8415122325165139},"DFDA_DIRECT_FUNDING_QUEUE_CLEARANCE_NPV":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[210963801005.89468,652276041925.836],"conservative":null,"description":"NPV of annual direct funding for the therapeutic space exploration period. Funding period equals exploration time (queue clearance years at given capacity multiplier). After exploration completes, the full timeline shift benefit is realized.","displayName":"Direct Pragmatic Trial Funding NPV (Exploration Period)","formatted":"$475.66B","formula":"ANNUAL_FUNDING × [(1 - (1 + r)^-T) / r] where T = exploration time","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nNPV_{direct} = \\frac{T_{queue,trial}}{Funding_{trial,ref} \\times r_{discount}} = \\frac{36}{\\$21.8B \\times 3\\%} = \\$476B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":475659465477.4342},"DFDA_DIRECT_FUNDING_ROI_TRIAL_CAPACITY_PLUS_EFFICACY_LAG":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[109630.70257256803,420646.2062308031],"conservative":null,"description":"ROI from directly funding pragmatic clinical trials over the therapeutic space exploration period.","displayName":"Direct Funding ROI - Elimination of Efficacy Lag Plus Earlier Treatment Discovery from Increased Trial Throughput","formatted":"178,250.528 ratio","formula":"ECONOMIC_VALUE ÷ DIRECT_FUNDING_NPV","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nROI_{direct,max} = \\frac{Value_{max}}{NPV_{direct}} = \\frac{\\$84800T}{\\$476B} = 178{,}000\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Value_{max} = DALYs_{max} \\times Value_{QALY} = 565B \\times \\$150K = \\$84800T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } NPV_{direct} = \\frac{T_{queue,trial}}{Funding_{trial,ref} \\times r_{discount}} = \\frac{36}{\\$21.8B \\times 3\\%} = \\$476B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":178250.5282798208},"DFDA_DIRECT_FUNDING_VS_BED_NETS_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[55.926961229454804,329.21200734611153],"conservative":null,"description":"How many times more cost-effective direct funding of medical research is vs bed nets.","displayName":"Direct Funding Cost-Effectiveness vs Bed Nets","formatted":"105.76198011269368 x","formula":"BED_NETS_COST_PER_DALY ÷ DIRECT_FUNDING_COST_PER_DALY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{direct,nets} = \\frac{Cost_{nets}}{Cost_{direct,DALY}} = \\frac{\\$89}{\\$0.842} = 106\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{direct,DALY} = \\frac{NPV_{direct}}{DALYs_{max}} = \\frac{\\$476B}{565B} = \\$0.842\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } NPV_{direct} = \\frac{T_{queue,trial}}{Funding_{trial,ref} \\times r_{discount}} = \\frac{36}{\\$21.8B \\times 3\\%} = \\$476B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":105.76198011269368},"DFDA_EFFICACY_LAG_ELIMINATION_DALYS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[4426874031.501816,12109567057.80356],"conservative":null,"description":"Total Disability-Adjusted Life Years lost from disease eradication delay (PRIMARY estimate)","displayName":"Total DALYs Lost from Disease Eradication Delay","formatted":"7.94B DALYs","formula":"YLL + YLD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDALYs_{lag} = YLL_{lag} + YLD_{lag} = 7.07B + 873M = 7.94B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLL_{lag} = Deaths_{lag} \\times (LE_{global} - Age_{death,delay}) = 416M \\times (79 - 62) = 7.07B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag} = T_{lag} \\times Deaths_{disease,daily} \\times 338 = 8.2 \\times 150{,}000 \\times 338 = 416M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLD_{lag} = Deaths_{lag} \\times T_{suffering} \\times DW_{chronic} = 416M \\times 6 \\times 0.35 = 873M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"DALYs","value":7942783571.3},"DFDA_EFFICACY_LAG_ELIMINATION_DEATHS_AVERTED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[225457681.7776609,630313930.8723611],"conservative":null,"description":"Total eventually avoidable deaths from delaying disease eradication by 8.2 years (PRIMARY estimate, conservative). Excludes fundamentally unavoidable deaths (primarily accidents ~7.9%).","displayName":"Total Deaths from Disease Eradication Delay","formatted":"415.85M deaths","formula":"ANNUAL_DEATHS × EFFICACY_LAG_YEARS × EVENTUALLY_AVOIDABLE_DEATH_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDeaths_{lag} \\\\\n= T_{lag} \\times Deaths_{disease,daily} \\times 338 \\\\\n= 8.2 \\times 150{,}000 \\times 338 \\\\\n= 416M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"deaths","value":415852543},"DFDA_EFFICACY_LAG_ELIMINATION_ECONOMIC_VALUE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[442687403150181.6,2413221162666992],"conservative":null,"description":"Total economic loss from delaying disease eradication by 8.2 years (PRIMARY estimate, 2024 USD). Values global DALYs at standardized US/International normative rate ($150k) rather than local ability-to-pay, representing the full human capital loss.","displayName":"Total Economic Loss from Disease Eradication Delay","formatted":"$1191.42T","formula":"DALYS_TOTAL × VSLY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nValue_{lag} = DALYs_{lag} \\times Value_{QALY} = 7.94B \\times \\$150K = \\$1190T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{lag} = YLL_{lag} + YLD_{lag} = 7.07B + 873M = 7.94B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLL_{lag} = Deaths_{lag} \\times (LE_{global} - Age_{death,delay}) = 416M \\times (79 - 62) = 7.07B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag} = T_{lag} \\times Deaths_{disease,daily} \\times 338 = 8.2 \\times 150{,}000 \\times 338 = 416M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLD_{lag} = Deaths_{lag} \\times T_{suffering} \\times DW_{chronic} = 416M \\times 6 \\times 0.35 = 873M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1191417535695000},"DFDA_EFFICACY_LAG_ELIMINATION_YLD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[216656206.4727562,2429672136.8872876],"conservative":null,"description":"Years Lived with Disability during disease eradication delay (PRIMARY estimate)","displayName":"Years Lived with Disability During Disease Eradication Delay","formatted":"873.29M years","formula":"DEATHS_TOTAL × SUFFERING_PERIOD × DISABILITY_WEIGHT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nYLD_{lag} = Deaths_{lag} \\times T_{suffering} \\times DW_{chronic} = 416M \\times 6 \\times 0.35 = 873M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag} = T_{lag} \\times Deaths_{disease,daily} \\times 338 = 8.2 \\times 150{,}000 \\times 338 = 416M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":873290340.3},"DFDA_EFFICACY_LAG_ELIMINATION_YLL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[4210217825.02906,9679894920.916273],"conservative":null,"description":"Years of Life Lost from disease eradication delay deaths (PRIMARY estimate)","displayName":"Years of Life Lost from Disease Eradication Delay","formatted":"7.07B years","formula":"DEATHS_TOTAL × (LIFE_EXPECTANCY - MEAN_AGE_OF_DEATH)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nYLL_{lag} = Deaths_{lag} \\times (LE_{global} - Age_{death,delay}) = 416M \\times (79 - 62) = 7.07B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag} = T_{lag} \\times Deaths_{disease,daily} \\times 338 = 8.2 \\times 150{,}000 \\times 338 = 416M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":7069493231},"DFDA_FIRST_TREATMENTS_PER_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[106.89875541224966,491.300503527953],"conservative":null,"description":"Diseases per year receiving their first effective treatment with treaty-scale pragmatic trial capacity. Scales proportionally with trial capacity multiplier.","displayName":"New Treatments Per Year at Treaty-Scale Trial Capacity","formatted":"184.91870149000056 diseases/year","formula":"NEW_DISEASE_FIRST_TREATMENTS_PER_YEAR × PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nTreatments_{trial,ann} = Treatments_{new,ann} \\times k_{capacity} = 15 \\times 12.3 = 185\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"diseases/year","value":184.91870149000056},"DFDA_KNOWN_SAFE_EXPLORATION_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[51.33046488814189,606.750404837319],"conservative":null,"description":"Years to test all known safe drug-disease combinations with treaty-scale pragmatic trial capacity","displayName":"Known Safe Exploration Time at Treaty-Scale Trial Capacity","formatted":"233.51785316399287 years","formula":"DRUG_DISEASE_COMBINATIONS ÷ TREATY_SCALE_TRIALS_PER_YEAR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{safe,trial} = \\frac{N_{combos}}{Capacity_{trials}} = \\frac{9.5M}{40{,}700} = 234\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{combos} = N_{safe} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 9{,}500 \\times 1{,}000 = 9.5M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Capacity_{trials} = Trials_{ann,curr} \\times k_{capacity} = 3{,}300 \\times 12.3 = 40{,}700\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":233.51785316399287},"DFDA_MAX_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER_PHYSICAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[533.6112392172847,596.897048468253],"conservative":null,"description":"Physical upper bound on trial-capacity multiplier from participant availability. Even with unlimited funding, annual trial enrollment cannot exceed willing participant pool.","displayName":"Maximum Trial Capacity Multiplier (Physical Limit)","formatted":"565.8947368421053 x","formula":"WILLING_TRIAL_PARTICIPANTS_GLOBAL ÷ CURRENT_TRIAL_SLOTS_AVAILABLE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":565.8947368421053},"DFDA_NET_SAVINGS_RD_ONLY_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[49200377890.38433,72997092305.61078],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual net savings from R&D cost reduction only (gross savings minus operational costs, excludes regulatory delay value)","displayName":"Annual Net Savings from Pragmatic Trials (R&D Only)","formatted":"58.60B USD/year","formula":"GROSS_SAVINGS - ANNUAL_OPEX","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{RD,ann} = Benefit_{RD,ann} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$58.6B - \\$40M = \\$58.6B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{RD,ann} = Spending_{trials} \\times Reduce_{pct} = \\$60B \\times 97.7\\% = \\$58.6B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Reduce_{pct} = 1 - \\frac{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}}{Cost_{P3,pt}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$929}{\\$41K} = 97.7\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":58600487804.878044},"DFDA_NPV_ANNUAL_OPEX_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[27512603.801403433,55395973.133008234],"conservative":null,"description":"Total NPV annual opex (pragmatic trial platform core + DIH initiatives)","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Platform Total NPV Annual OPEX","formatted":"40.05M USD/year","formula":"TRIAL_PLATFORM_OPEX + DIH_OPEX","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nOPEX_{total} \\\\\n= OPEX_{ann} + OPEX_{DIH,ann} \\\\\n= \\$18.9M + \\$21.1M \\\\\n= \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":40050000},"DFDA_NPV_BENEFIT_RD_ONLY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[326896766467.5119,485006710505.33374],"conservative":null,"description":"NPV of pragmatic trial R&D savings only with 5-year adoption ramp (10-year horizon, most conservative financial estimate)","displayName":"NPV of Pragmatic Trial Benefits (R&D Only, 10-Year Discounted)","formatted":"$389.35B","formula":"SUM[Savings × adoption(t) / (1+r)^t] for t=1..10","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nNPV_{RD} \\\\\n= \\sum_{t=1}^{10} \\frac{Savings_{RD,ann} \\cdot \\frac{\\min(t,5)}{5}}{(1+r)^t}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":389352903335.6751},"DFDA_NPV_NET_BENEFIT_RD_ONLY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[326430469466.9012,484144894250.614],"conservative":null,"description":"NPV net benefit using R&D savings only (benefits minus costs)","displayName":"NPV Net Benefit (R&D Only)","formatted":"$388.74B","formula":"NPV_BENEFIT - NPV_COST","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nNPV_{net,RD} = NPV_{RD} - Cost_{platform,total} = \\$389B - \\$611M = \\$389B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } NPV_{RD} = \\sum_{t=1}^{10} \\frac{Savings_{RD,ann} \\cdot \\frac{\\min(t,5)}{5}}{(1+r)^t}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Savings_{RD,ann} = Benefit_{RD,ann} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$58.6B - \\$40M = \\$58.6B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{RD,ann} = Spending_{trials} \\times Reduce_{pct} = \\$60B \\times 97.7\\% = \\$58.6B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Reduce_{pct} = 1 - \\frac{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}}{Cost_{P3,pt}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$929}{\\$41K} = 97.7\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{platform,total} = PV_{OPEX} + Cost_{upfront,total} = \\$342M + \\$270M = \\$611M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } PV_{OPEX} = \\frac{T_{horizon}}{OPEX_{total} \\times r_{discount}} = \\frac{10}{\\$40M \\times 3\\%} = \\$342M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{total} = OPEX_{ann} + OPEX_{DIH,ann} = \\$18.9M + \\$21.1M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{upfront,total} = Cost_{upfront} + Cost_{DIH,init} = \\$40M + \\$230M = \\$270M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":388741518712.06226},"DFDA_NPV_PV_ANNUAL_OPEX":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[234688090.9938212,472538887.1651448],"conservative":null,"description":"Present value of annual opex over 10 years (NPV formula)","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Platform Present Value of Annual OPEX Over 10 Years","formatted":"$341.63M","formula":"OPEX × [(1 - (1 + r)^-T) / r]","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nPV_{OPEX} = \\frac{T_{horizon}}{OPEX_{total} \\times r_{discount}} = \\frac{10}{\\$40M \\times 3\\%} = \\$342M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{total} = OPEX_{ann} + OPEX_{DIH,ann} = \\$18.9M + \\$21.1M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":341634623.61287224},"DFDA_NPV_TOTAL_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[415486533.1432253,852697532.3993205],"conservative":null,"description":"Total NPV cost (upfront + PV of annual opex)","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Platform Total NPV Cost","formatted":"$611.38M","formula":"UPFRONT + PV_OPEX","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{platform,total} = PV_{OPEX} + Cost_{upfront,total} = \\$342M + \\$270M = \\$611M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } PV_{OPEX} = \\frac{T_{horizon}}{OPEX_{total} \\times r_{discount}} = \\frac{10}{\\$40M \\times 3\\%} = \\$342M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{total} = OPEX_{ann} + OPEX_{DIH,ann} = \\$18.9M + \\$21.1M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{upfront,total} = Cost_{upfront} + Cost_{DIH,init} = \\$40M + \\$230M = \\$270M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":611384623.6128722},"DFDA_NPV_UPFRONT_COST_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[180798442.14940408,380158645.2341758],"conservative":null,"description":"Total NPV upfront costs (pragmatic trial platform core + DIH initiatives)","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Platform Total NPV Upfront Costs","formatted":"$269.75M","formula":"TRIAL_PLATFORM_BUILD + DIH_INITIATIVES","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{upfront,total} \\\\\n= Cost_{upfront} + Cost_{DIH,init} \\\\\n= \\$40M + \\$230M \\\\\n= \\$270M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":269750000},"DFDA_OPEX_PCT_OF_TREATY_FUNDING":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.0010048841944384048,0.0020439946849587012],"conservative":null,"description":"Percentage of treaty funding allocated to pragmatic trial platform overhead","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Platform Overhead Percentage of Treaty Funding","formatted":"0.1%","formula":"TRIAL_PLATFORM_OPEX / TREATY_FUNDING","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nOPEX_{pct} = \\frac{OPEX_{trial}}{Funding_{treaty}} = \\frac{\\$40M}{\\$27.2B} = 0.147\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.0014705882352941176},"DFDA_PATIENTS_FUNDABLE_ANNUALLY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[9457330.154306889,96972890.05348355],"conservative":null,"description":"Number of patients fundable annually at the reference pragmatic trial funding level and empirical pragmatic trial cost. Source-agnostic counterpart of DIH_PATIENTS_FUNDABLE_ANNUALLY.","displayName":"Patients Fundable Annually at Reference Funding","formatted":"23.42M patients/year","formula":"REFERENCE_TRIAL_SUBSIDIES / PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_COST_PER_PATIENT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"patients/year","value":23423035.52206674},"DFDA_QUEUE_CLEARANCE_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[11.6018608310743,77.10521984787384],"conservative":null,"description":"Years to explore the entire therapeutic search space with treaty-scale pragmatic trial capacity. At increased discovery rate, finding first treatments for all currently untreatable diseases takes ~36 years instead of ~443.","displayName":"Therapeutic Space Exploration Time at Treaty-Scale Trial Capacity","formatted":"35.9617493872549 years","formula":"STATUS_QUO_QUEUE_CLEARANCE_YEARS ÷ PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":35.9617493872549},"DFDA_RD_SAVINGS_DAILY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/health-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[134878657.59486148,200145547.76709434],"conservative":null,"description":"Daily R&D savings from trial cost reduction (opportunity cost of delay)","displayName":"Daily R&D Savings from Trial Cost Reduction","formatted":"160.66M USD/day","formula":"ANNUAL_RD_SAVINGS ÷ DAYS_PER_YEAR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{RD,daily} = Benefit_{RD,ann} \\times 0.00274 = \\$58.6B \\times 0.00274 = \\$161M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{RD,ann} = Spending_{trials} \\times Reduce_{pct} = \\$60B \\times 97.7\\% = \\$58.6B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Reduce_{pct} = 1 - \\frac{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}}{Cost_{P3,pt}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$929}{\\$41K} = 97.7\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/day","value":160658870.698296},"DFDA_ROI_RD_ONLY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[568.8829153339103,790.154529603755],"conservative":null,"description":"ROI from pragmatic trial R&D savings only (10-year NPV, most conservative estimate)","displayName":"ROI from Pragmatic Trial R&D Savings Only","formatted":"636.8379057930197 ratio","formula":"NPV_BENEFIT ÷ NPV_TOTAL_COST","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nROI_{RD} = \\frac{NPV_{RD}}{Cost_{platform,total}} = \\frac{\\$389B}{\\$611M} = 637\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } NPV_{RD} = \\sum_{t=1}^{10} \\frac{Savings_{RD,ann} \\cdot \\frac{\\min(t,5)}{5}}{(1+r)^t}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Savings_{RD,ann} = Benefit_{RD,ann} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$58.6B - \\$40M = \\$58.6B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{RD,ann} = Spending_{trials} \\times Reduce_{pct} = \\$60B \\times 97.7\\% = \\$58.6B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Reduce_{pct} = 1 - \\frac{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}}{Cost_{P3,pt}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$929}{\\$41K} = 97.7\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{platform,total} = PV_{OPEX} + Cost_{upfront,total} = \\$342M + \\$270M = \\$611M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } PV_{OPEX} = \\frac{T_{horizon}}{OPEX_{total} \\times r_{discount}} = \\frac{10}{\\$40M \\times 3\\%} = \\$342M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{total} = OPEX_{ann} + OPEX_{DIH,ann} = \\$18.9M + \\$21.1M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{upfront,total} = Cost_{upfront} + Cost_{DIH,init} = \\$40M + \\$230M = \\$270M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":636.8379057930197},"DFDA_STORAGE_COST_TOTAL_PER_PATIENT_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/dfda.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[4.3379991013600465,15.467322287816573],"conservative":null,"description":"Total infrastructure cost per patient per year. Monthly cost × 12.","displayName":"Total Infrastructure Cost per Patient (Annual)","formatted":"8.64 USD/patient/year","formula":"MONTHLY_COST × 12","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{infra,annual} = Cost_{infra,monthly} \\times 12 = \\$0.72 \\times 12 = \\$8.64\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{infra,monthly} = Cost_{storage,raw} + Cost_{compute} + Cost_{database} + Cost_{backup} = \\$0.02 + \\$0.2 + \\$0.3 + \\$0.2 = \\$0.72\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/patient/year","value":8.64},"DFDA_STORAGE_COST_TOTAL_PER_PATIENT_MONTHLY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/dfda.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.36149992511333723,1.2889435239847145],"conservative":null,"description":"Total infrastructure cost per patient per month. Sum of storage, compute, database, and backup costs.","displayName":"Total Infrastructure Cost per Patient (Monthly)","formatted":"0.72 USD/patient/month","formula":"RAW + COMPUTE + DATABASE + BACKUP","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{infra,monthly} \\\\\n= Cost_{storage,raw} + Cost_{compute} + Cost_{database} \\\\\n+ Cost_{backup} \\\\\n= \\$0.02 + \\$0.2 + \\$0.3 + \\$0.2 \\\\\n= \\$0.72\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/patient/month","value":0.72},"DFDA_TOTAL_EXPLORATION_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[297.19654494410366,3219.273868542128],"conservative":null,"description":"Years to test all therapeutic combinations (known safe + emerging modalities) with treaty-scale pragmatic trial capacity","displayName":"Total Exploration Time at Treaty-Scale Trial Capacity","formatted":"1,265.913 years","formula":"TOTAL_COMBINATIONS ÷ TREATY_SCALE_TRIALS_PER_YEAR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{explore,trial} = \\frac{N_{testable}}{Capacity_{trials}} = \\frac{51.5M}{40{,}700} = 1{,}270\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{testable} = N_{combos} + N_{emerging} = 9.5M + 42M = 51.5M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{combos} = N_{safe} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 9{,}500 \\times 1{,}000 = 9.5M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{emerging} = Combos_{gene} + Combos_{mRNA} + Combos_{epi} + Combos_{cell} = 20M + 20M + 1.5M + 500{,}000 = 42M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{gene} = N_{genes} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 20{,}000 \\times 1{,}000 = 20M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{mRNA} = N_{genes} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 20{,}000 \\times 1{,}000 = 20M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{epi} = N_{epi} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 1{,}500 \\times 1{,}000 = 1.5M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{cell} = N_{cell} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 500 \\times 1{,}000 = 500{,}000\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Capacity_{trials} = Trials_{ann,curr} \\times k_{capacity} = 3{,}300 \\times 12.3 = 40{,}700\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":1265.9125724153298},"DFDA_TRIALS_PER_YEAR_CAPACITY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[16291.841473441667,170029.8415153406],"conservative":null,"description":"Maximum trials per year possible with trial capacity multiplier","displayName":"Maximum Trials per Year at Treaty-Scale Trial Capacity","formatted":"40,682.114 trials/year","formula":"CURRENT_TRIALS × PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCapacity_{trials} = Trials_{ann,curr} \\times k_{capacity} = 3{,}300 \\times 12.3 = 40{,}700\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"trials/year","value":40682.114327800125},"DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_DALYS_AVERTED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[329860540306.15924,864313021166.9536],"conservative":null,"description":"Total DALYs averted from trial capacity increase alone. Calculated as annual global DALY burden × eventually avoidable percentage × treatment acceleration years. Includes both fatal and non-fatal diseases.","displayName":"DALYs Averted from Trial Capacity Increase","formatted":"543.37B DALYs","formula":"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DALY_BURDEN × EVENTUALLY_AVOIDABLE_DALY_PCT × TREATMENT_ACCELERATION_YEARS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDALYs_{capacity} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 204 = 543B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"DALYs","value":543368690237.1337},"DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_ECONOMIC_VALUE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[59140734464062280,93957351336071780],"conservative":null,"description":"Total economic value from trial capacity increase alone. DALYs valued at standard economic rate.","displayName":"Economic Value from Trial Capacity Increase","formatted":"$81505.30T","formula":"TRIAL_CAPACITY_DALYS_AVERTED × STANDARD_QALY_VALUE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nValue_{capacity} = DALYs_{capacity} \\times Value_{QALY} = 543B \\times \\$150K = \\$81500T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{capacity} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 204 = 543B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":81505303535570060},"DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_LIVES_SAVED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[6767194063.744092,16020895746.736174],"conservative":null,"description":"Total eventually avoidable deaths from trial capacity increase alone. Represents first treatments arriving earlier due to faster therapeutic space exploration from increased trial capacity.","displayName":"Lives Saved from Trial Capacity Increase","formatted":"10.33B deaths","formula":"ANNUAL_DEATHS × TRIAL_CAPACITY_TREATMENT_ACCELERATION_YEARS × AVOIDABLE_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nLives_{capacity} = Deaths_{disease,daily} \\times T_{accel} \\times 338 = 150{,}000 \\times 204 \\times 338 = 10.3B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"deaths","value":10329665205.028845},"DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[4.198505418517696,61.41256294099413],"conservative":null,"description":"Trial capacity multiplier from treaty-scale pragmatic trial funding capacity vs. current global trial participation","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Capacity Multiplier at Treaty-Scale Funding","formatted":"12.327913432666705 x","formula":"PATIENTS_FUNDABLE_AT_REFERENCE_FUNDING ÷ CURRENT_TRIAL_SLOTS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":12.327913432666705},"DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_PLUS_EFFICACY_LAG_DALYS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[361228429593.56604,876824817914.337],"conservative":null,"description":"Total DALYs averted from the combined treatment timeline shift. Calculated as annual global DALY burden × eventually avoidable percentage × timeline shift years. Includes both fatal and non-fatal diseases (WHO GBD methodology).","displayName":"Total DALYs from Elimination of Efficacy Lag Plus Earlier Treatment Discovery from Higher Trial Throughput","formatted":"565.24B DALYs","formula":"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DALY_BURDEN × EVENTUALLY_AVOIDABLE_DALY_PCT × TIMELINE_SHIFT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"DALYs","value":565243673350.9989},"DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_PLUS_EFFICACY_LAG_ECONOMIC_VALUE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[62368560488824664,97290653416940640],"conservative":null,"description":"Total economic value from the combined treatment timeline shift. DALYs valued at standard economic rate.","displayName":"Total Economic Benefit from Elimination of Efficacy Lag Plus Earlier Treatment Discovery from Higher Trial Throughput","formatted":"$84786.55T","formula":"DALYS × STANDARD_QALY_VALUE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nValue_{max} = DALYs_{max} \\times Value_{QALY} = 565B \\times \\$150K = \\$84800T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":84786551002649840},"DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_PLUS_EFFICACY_LAG_LIVES_SAVED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[7397729440.275721,16224686999.05504],"conservative":null,"description":"Total eventually avoidable deaths from the combined treatment timeline shift. Represents deaths prevented when cures arrive earlier due to both increased trial capacity and eliminated efficacy lag.","displayName":"Total Lives Saved from Elimination of Efficacy Lag Plus Earlier Treatment Discovery from Higher Trial Throughput","formatted":"10.75B deaths","formula":"ANNUAL_DEATHS × TOTAL_TIMELINE_SHIFT_YEARS × AVOIDABLE_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nLives_{max} = Deaths_{disease,daily} \\times T_{accel,max} \\times 338 = 150{,}000 \\times 212 \\times 338 = 10.7B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"deaths","value":10745517748.59972},"DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_PLUS_EFFICACY_LAG_SUFFERING_HOURS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[1362076575736262.8,2616068708542615.5],"conservative":null,"description":"Hours of suffering eliminated from the combined treatment timeline shift. Calculated from YLD component of DALYs (39% of total DALYs × hours per year). One-time benefit, not annual recurring.","displayName":"Suffering Hours Eliminated from Elimination of Efficacy Lag Plus Earlier Treatment Discovery from Higher Trial Throughput","formatted":"1931098.49B hours","formula":"TOTAL_TIMELINE_SHIFT_DALYS × GLOBAL_YLD_PROPORTION × HOURS_PER_YEAR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nHours_{suffer,max} = DALYs_{max} \\times Pct_{YLD} \\times 8760 = 565B \\times 0.39 \\times 8760 = 1930T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"hours","value":1931098485636352.8},"DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_PLUS_EFFICACY_LAG_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[134.79621168473835,355.30088260979545],"conservative":null,"description":"Average years earlier patients receive treatments from increased pragmatic trial capacity plus efficacy lag elimination for treatments already discovered.","displayName":"Average Total Treatment Timeline Shift","formatted":"211.8857919730392 years","formula":"TRIAL_CAPACITY_TREATMENT_ACCELERATION_YEARS + EFFICACY_LAG_YEARS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":211.8857919730392},"DFDA_TRIAL_CAPACITY_TREATMENT_ACCELERATION_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[123.31073169417157,350.44906958446285],"conservative":null,"description":"Years earlier the average first treatment arrives due to increased pragmatic trial capacity. Calculated as the status quo timeline reduced by the inverse of the capacity multiplier. Uses only trial capacity multiplier (not combined with valley of death rescue) because additional candidates do not directly speed therapeutic space exploration.","displayName":"Treatment Timeline Acceleration from Pragmatic Trial Capacity","formatted":"203.68579197303922 years","formula":"STATUS_QUO_AVG_YEARS_TO_FIRST_TREATMENT × (1 - 1/PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":203.68579197303922},"DFDA_TRIAL_COST_REDUCTION_FACTOR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[39.4280461949768,89.07763976323484],"conservative":null,"description":"Cost reduction factor projected for embedded pragmatic trials (traditional Phase 3 cost / pragmatic trial cost per patient)","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Cost Reduction Factor","formatted":"44.13347685683531 multiplier","formula":"TRADITIONAL_PHASE3_COST / PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_COST","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{reduce} \\\\\n= \\frac{Cost_{P3,pt}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$41K}{\\$929} \\\\\n= 44.1\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"multiplier","value":44.13347685683531},"DFDA_TRIAL_COST_REDUCTION_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.974637343298825,0.9887738380624588],"conservative":null,"description":"Trial cost reduction percentage: 1 - (pragmatic trial cost / traditional Phase 3 cost)","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Cost Reduction Percentage","formatted":"97.7%","formula":"1 - (PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_COST / TRADITIONAL_COST)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nReduce_{pct} \\\\\n= 1 - \\frac{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}}{Cost_{P3,pt}} \\\\\n= 1 - \\frac{\\$929}{\\$41K} \\\\\n= 97.7\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percentage","value":0.9773414634146341},"DFDA_TRIAL_SUBSIDIES_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[21744403344.569122,21772667149.911274],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual patient-level pragmatic trial subsidies after operating costs at the reference funding level","displayName":"Reference Annual Trial Subsidies","formatted":"21.76B USD/year","formula":"REFERENCE_TRIAL_FUNDING - TRIAL_PLATFORM_OPEX","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSubsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":21760000000},"DFDA_VALLEY_OF_DEATH_RESCUE_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[1.2647218414075347,1.5350010215617111],"conservative":null,"description":"Factor increase in drugs entering development when pragmatic trial subsidies remove the Phase 2/3 cost barrier. Valley-of-death attrition (40%) becomes new drugs, so 1 + 0.40 = 1.4× more drugs.","displayName":"Valley of Death Rescue Multiplier","formatted":"1.4 multiplier","formula":"1 + VALLEY_OF_DEATH_ATTRITION_PCT","latex":"k_{rescue} = Attrition_{valley} + 1 = 40\\% + 1 = 1.4","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"multiplier","value":1.4},"DIH_PATIENTS_FUNDABLE_ANNUALLY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[9439932.886597235,96794734.77395707],"conservative":null,"description":"Number of patients fundable annually from 1% Treaty pragmatic trial subsidies at empirical pragmatic trial cost (RECOVERY to PCORnet range).","displayName":"Patients Fundable Annually Under the 1% Treaty","formatted":"23.38M patients/year","formula":"ONE_PERCENT_TREATY_TRIAL_SUBSIDIES ÷ PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_COST_PER_PATIENT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{fundable,ann} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ann}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.7B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ann} = Treasury_{RD,ann} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.7B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Treasury_{RD,ann} = Funding_{treaty} - Payout_{bond,ann} - Funding_{political,ann} = \\$27.2B - \\$2.72B - \\$2.72B = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Payout_{bond,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{bond} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{political,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{political} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"patients/year","value":23379978.471474703},"DIH_TREASURY_MEDICAL_RESEARCH_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-protocol-v1.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Percentage of treaty funding allocated to medical research (after bond payouts and IAB incentives)","displayName":"Medical Research Percentage of Treaty Funding","formatted":"80.0%","formula":"MEDICAL_RESEARCH_FUNDING / TREATY_FUNDING","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nPct_{treasury,RD} = \\frac{Treasury_{RD,ann}}{Funding_{treaty}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$27.2B} = 80\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Treasury_{RD,ann} = Funding_{treaty} - Payout_{bond,ann} - Funding_{political,ann} = \\$27.2B - \\$2.72B - \\$2.72B = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Payout_{bond,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{bond} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{political,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{political} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.8},"DIH_TREASURY_TO_MEDICAL_RESEARCH_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Annual 1% Treaty funding available for pragmatic clinical trials after bond payouts and political incentive funding.","displayName":"1% Treaty Pragmatic Trial Funding","formatted":"21.76B USD/year","formula":"TREATY_FUNDING - BOND_PAYOUT - IAB_POLITICAL_INCENTIVE_FUNDING","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nTreasury_{RD,ann} = Funding_{treaty} - Payout_{bond,ann} - Funding_{political,ann} = \\$27.2B - \\$2.72B - \\$2.72B = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Payout_{bond,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{bond} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{political,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{political} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":21760000000},"DIH_TREASURY_TRIAL_SUBSIDIES_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[21704403344.569122,21732667149.911274],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual 1% Treaty patient-level pragmatic trial subsidies after platform operating costs","displayName":"1% Treaty Annual Trial Subsidies","formatted":"21.72B USD/year","formula":"ONE_PERCENT_TREATY_TRIAL_FUNDING - TRIAL_PLATFORM_OPEX","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSubsidies_{trial,ann} = Treasury_{RD,ann} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.7B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Treasury_{RD,ann} = Funding_{treaty} - Payout_{bond,ann} - Funding_{political,ann} = \\$27.2B - \\$2.72B - \\$2.72B = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Payout_{bond,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{bond} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{political,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{political} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":21720000000},"DIH_TREASURY_TRIAL_SUBSIDIES_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.7979560053150413,0.7989951158055616],"conservative":null,"description":"Percentage of treaty funding going directly to patient trial subsidies","displayName":"Patient Trial Subsidies Percentage of Treaty Funding","formatted":"79.9%","formula":"TRIAL_SUBSIDIES / TREATY_FUNDING","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nPct_{subsidies} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ann}}{Funding_{treaty}} = \\frac{\\$21.7B}{\\$27.2B} = 79.9\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ann} = Treasury_{RD,ann} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.7B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Treasury_{RD,ann} = Funding_{treaty} - Payout_{bond,ann} - Funding_{political,ann} = \\$27.2B - \\$2.72B - \\$2.72B = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Payout_{bond,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{bond} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{political,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{political} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.7985294117647059},"DISEASES_WITHOUT_EFFECTIVE_TREATMENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[5700,8242.45203624412],"conservative":null,"description":"Number of diseases without effective treatment. 95% of 7,000 rare diseases lack FDA-approved treatment (per Orphanet 2024). This represents the therapeutic search space that remains unexplored.","displayName":"Diseases Without Effective Treatment","formatted":"6,650 diseases","formula":"RARE_DISEASES_COUNT_GLOBAL × 0.95","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{untreated} \\\\\n= N_{rare} \\times 0.95 \\\\\n= 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 \\\\\n= 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"rare-disease-only-5pct-have-treatment","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://ojrd.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13023-024-03398-1","stdError":null,"unit":"diseases","value":6650},"DISEASE_VS_TERRORISM_DEATHS_RATIO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[15563.929427013172,21099.365813223307],"conservative":null,"description":"Ratio of annual disease deaths to 9/11 terrorism deaths","displayName":"Ratio of Annual Disease Deaths to 9/11 Terrorism Deaths","formatted":"18,357.81 ratio","formula":"ANNUAL_DISEASE_DEATHS ÷ 911_DEATHS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nRatio_{dis:terror} \\\\\n= \\frac{Deaths_{curable,ann}}{Deaths_{9/11}} \\\\\n= \\frac{55M}{3{,}000} \\\\\n= 18{,}400\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":18357.81041388518},"DISEASE_VS_WAR_DEATHS_RATIO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[210.07617311236714,239.4778360577265],"conservative":null,"description":"Ratio of annual disease deaths to war deaths","displayName":"Ratio of Annual Disease Deaths to War Deaths","formatted":"224.8569092395748 ratio","formula":"ANNUAL_DISEASE_DEATHS ÷ WAR_DEATHS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nRatio_{dis:war} = \\frac{Deaths_{curable,ann}}{Deaths_{conflict}} = \\frac{55M}{245{,}000} = 225\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{conflict} = Deaths_{combat} + Deaths_{state} + Deaths_{terror} = 234{,}000 + 2{,}700 + 8{,}300 = 245{,}000\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":224.8569092395748},"DIVIDEND_COVERAGE_FACTOR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[489.23806279301357,995.1395454461687],"conservative":null,"description":"Coverage factor of treaty funding vs pragmatic trial platform opex (sustainability margin)","displayName":"Coverage Factor of Treaty Funding vs Pragmatic Trial Platform OPEX","formatted":"680 ratio","formula":"TREATY_FUNDING ÷ TRIAL_PLATFORM_OPEX","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{coverage} = \\frac{Funding_{treaty}}{OPEX_{trial}} = \\frac{\\$27.2B}{\\$40M} = 680\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":680},"DRUGS_APPROVED_SINCE_1962":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[2790,3504.397410128536],"conservative":null,"description":"Estimated total drugs approved globally since 1962 (62 years × average approval rate). Conservative: uses current rate, actual historical rate was lower in 1960s-80s.","displayName":"Total Drugs Approved Since 1962","formatted":"3,100 drugs","formula":"APPROVALS_PER_YEAR × 62","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{drugs,62} \\\\\n= Drugs_{ann,curr} \\times 62 \\\\\n= 50 \\times 62 \\\\\n= 3{,}100\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"global-new-drug-approvals-50-annually","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/50-new-drugs-received-FDA/103/i2","stdError":null,"unit":"drugs","value":3100},"DRUG_COST_INCREASE_1980S_TO_CURRENT_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[11.928959521738925,14.726959933576214],"conservative":null,"description":"Drug development cost increase from 1980s to current","displayName":"Drug Cost Increase: 1980s to Current","formatted":"13.402061855670103 x","formula":"PHARMA_DRUG_DEVELOPMENT_COST_CURRENT ÷ DRUG_DEVELOPMENT_COST_1980S","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{cost,80s} \\\\\n= \\frac{Cost_{dev,curr}}{Cost_{dev,80s}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$2.6B}{\\$194M} \\\\\n= 13.4\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"pre-1962-drug-costs-timeline","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://thinkbynumbers.org/health/how-many-net-lives-does-the-fda-save/","stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":13.402061855670103},"DRUG_COST_INCREASE_PRE1962_TO_CURRENT_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/drug-development-cost-analysis.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[90.57194062319792,119.05368540627623],"conservative":null,"description":"Drug development cost increase from pre-1962 to current","displayName":"Drug Cost Increase: Pre-1962 to Current","formatted":"105.26315789473684 x","formula":"PHARMA_DRUG_DEVELOPMENT_COST_CURRENT ÷ PRE_1962_DRUG_DEVELOPMENT_COST_2024_USD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{cost,pre62} \\\\\n= \\frac{Cost_{dev,curr}}{Cost_{pre62,24}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$2.6B}{\\$24.7M} \\\\\n= 105\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"pre-1962-drug-costs-baily-1972","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://samizdathealth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/hlthaff.1.2.6.pdf","stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":105.26315789473684},"DRUG_DISEASE_COMBINATIONS_POSSIBLE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[5938511.352283468,13865036.095305193],"conservative":null,"description":"Total possible drug-disease combinations using existing safe compounds","displayName":"Possible Drug-Disease Combinations","formatted":"9.50M combinations","formula":"SAFE_COMPOUNDS × DISEASES","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{combos} \\\\\n= N_{safe} \\times N_{diseases,trial} \\\\\n= 9{,}500 \\times 1{,}000 \\\\\n= 9.5M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"combinations","value":9500000},"EFFICACY_LAG_CUMULATIVE_EXCESS_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[3418255834067.792,6618222716830.65],"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative Phase 2/3 efficacy testing cost since 1962. Uses direct Phase 2/3 cost per drug - this is a LOWER BOUND because it excludes opportunity cost of delays, compounds abandoned due to cost barrier, and regulatory overhead.","displayName":"Cumulative Efficacy Testing Cost (1962-2024)","formatted":"$4.84T","formula":"PHASE_2_3_COST × DRUGS_APPROVED","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{eff,cumul} = Cost_{P2+P3} \\times N_{drugs,62} = \\$1.56B \\times 3{,}100 = \\$4.84T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{drugs,62} = Drugs_{ann,curr} \\times 62 = 50 \\times 62 = 3{,}100\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":4836000000000},"EFFICACY_LAG_DEATHS_911_EQUIVALENTS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[12387.381185404942,71845.10214762451],"conservative":null,"description":"Total deaths from efficacy lag expressed in 9/11 equivalents. Makes the mortality cost viscerally understandable: how many September 11ths worth of deaths did the 1962 efficacy requirements cause?","displayName":"Efficacy Lag Deaths (9/11 Equivalents)","formatted":"34,132.236 9/11s","formula":"EXISTING_DRUGS_EFFICACY_LAG_DEATHS_TOTAL ÷ SEPT_11_DEATHS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{9/11,equiv} = \\frac{Deaths_{lag,total}}{N_{9/11}} = \\frac{102M}{2{,}980} = 34{,}100\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"9/11s","value":34132.236031799344},"EFFICACY_LAG_TREATMENT_DELAY_YLD_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[660629910.656276,4410621048.564819],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual YLD from treatment delay: patients receiving chronic disease treatment would have collectively avoided this disability if treatments were available 8.2 years earlier. Represents morbidity burden for treatment beneficiaries (distinct from mortality burden).","displayName":"Treatment Delay YLD - Annual","formatted":"2.01B DALYs","formula":"PATIENTS × EFFICACY_LAG × DISABILITY_REDUCTION","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nYLD_{treat\\_delay} = N_{treated} \\times T_{lag} \\times \\Delta DW_{treat} = 982M \\times 8.2 \\times 0.25 = 2.01B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{treated} = DOT_{chronic} \\times 0.000767 = 1.28T \\times 0.000767 = 982M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"DALYs","value":2012931506.849315},"EMERGING_MODALITY_COMBINATIONS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[32432642.738815937,52539582.74663582],"conservative":null,"description":"Total emerging modality combinations (gene therapy + mRNA + epigenetics + cell therapy)","displayName":"Emerging Modality Combinations","formatted":"42.00M combinations","formula":"GENE + MRNA + EPIGENETIC + CELL","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{emerging} = Combos_{gene} + Combos_{mRNA} + Combos_{epi} + Combos_{cell} = 20M + 20M + 1.5M + 500{,}000 = 42M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{gene} = N_{genes} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 20{,}000 \\times 1{,}000 = 20M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{mRNA} = N_{genes} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 20{,}000 \\times 1{,}000 = 20M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{epi} = N_{epi} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 1{,}500 \\times 1{,}000 = 1.5M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{cell} = N_{cell} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 500 \\times 1{,}000 = 500{,}000\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"combinations","value":42000000},"EPIGENETIC_DISEASE_COMBINATIONS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[859850.6217060083,2301006.6742281257],"conservative":null,"description":"Epigenetic reprogramming target-disease combinations","displayName":"Epigenetic Therapy Combinations","formatted":"1.50M combinations","formula":"EPIGENETIC_TARGETS × DISEASES","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCombos_{epi} \\\\\n= N_{epi} \\times N_{diseases,trial} \\\\\n= 1{,}500 \\times 1{,}000 \\\\\n= 1.5M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"combinations","value":1500000},"EXISTING_DRUGS_EFFICACY_LAG_DEATHS_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[36877233.78895051,213882869.09347814],"conservative":null,"description":"Total deaths from delaying existing drugs over 8.2-year efficacy lag. One-time impact of eliminating Phase 2-4 testing delay for drugs already approved 1962-2024. Based on Lichtenberg (2019) estimate of 12M lives saved annually × 8.2 years efficacy lag. Excludes innovation acceleration effects.","displayName":"Total Deaths from Historical Progress Delays","formatted":"101.61M deaths","formula":"PHARMA_LIVES_SAVED_ANNUAL × EFFICACY_LAG_YEARS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDeaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"deaths","value":101611666.66666666},"EXISTING_DRUGS_EFFICACY_LAG_ECONOMIC_LOSS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[68864891086898.695,654573240553386.5],"conservative":null,"description":"Total economic loss from delaying existing drugs over 8.2-year efficacy lag. One-time benefit of eliminating Phase 2-4 delay. Excludes innovation acceleration effects.","displayName":"Total Economic Loss from Historical Progress Delays","formatted":"$259.11T","formula":"DEATHS_TOTAL × YLL × VSLY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nLoss_{lag} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times (LE_{global} - Age_{death,delay}) \\times Value_{QALY} = 102M \\times (79 - 62) \\times \\$150K = \\$259T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":259109750000000},"EXPLORATION_RATIO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.0018049214015606367,0.006265452460393697],"conservative":null,"description":"Fraction of possible drug-disease space actually tested (<1%)","displayName":"Therapeutic Frontier Exploration Ratio","formatted":"0.3%","formula":"TESTED / POSSIBLE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nRatio_{explore} = \\frac{N_{tested}}{N_{combos}} = \\frac{32{,}500}{9.5M} = 0.342\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{combos} = N_{safe} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 9{,}500 \\times 1{,}000 = 9.5M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percentage","value":0.0034210526315789475},"FDA_TO_OXFORD_RECOVERY_TRIAL_TIME_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/fda-is-unsafe-and-ineffective.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[19.407252101330347,45.94191996226725],"conservative":null,"description":"Efficacy testing time vs Oxford RECOVERY trial (8.2 years ÷ 3 months = 32.8x slower). Compares efficacy lag only (post-safety Phase II/III) since RECOVERY was an efficacy trial.","displayName":"FDA Efficacy Testing to Oxford RECOVERY Trial Time Multiplier","formatted":"32.8 multiplier","formula":"EFFICACY_LAG_YEARS × MONTHS_PER_YEAR ÷ OXFORD_RECOVERY_TRIAL_DURATION_MONTHS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{FDA:RECOVERY} \\\\\n= T_{lag} \\times \\text{MONTHS\\_PER\\_YEAR} / T_{RECOVERY}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"recovery-trial-82x-cost-reduction","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://manhattan.institute/article/slow-costly-clinical-trials-drag-down-biomedical-breakthroughs","stdError":null,"unit":"multiplier","value":32.8},"GENE_THERAPY_DISEASE_COMBINATIONS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[15653396.315316133,24662036.503855042],"conservative":null,"description":"Gene therapy target-disease combinations (CRISPR, base editing, viral vectors)","displayName":"Gene Therapy Combinations","formatted":"20.00M combinations","formula":"GENES × DISEASES","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCombos_{gene} \\\\\n= N_{genes} \\times N_{diseases,trial} \\\\\n= 20{,}000 \\times 1{,}000 \\\\\n= 20M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"combinations","value":20000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_CONFLICT_DEATHS_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[193677.39380097153,302366.3805094308],"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual conflict deaths globally (sum of combat, terror, state violence)","displayName":"Total Annual Conflict Deaths Globally","formatted":"244,600 deaths/year","formula":"COMBAT + TERROR + STATE_VIOLENCE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDeaths_{conflict} \\\\\n= Deaths_{combat} + Deaths_{state} + Deaths_{terror} \\\\\n= 234{,}000 + 2{,}700 + 8{,}300 \\\\\n= 245{,}000\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"deaths/year","value":244600},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DIRECT_INDIRECT_WAR_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[9012680402351.703,14057421275330.283],"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual cost of war worldwide (direct + indirect costs)","displayName":"Total Annual Cost of War Worldwide","formatted":"11357.10B USD/year","formula":"DIRECT_COSTS + INDIRECT_COSTS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":11357100000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_HUMAN_COST_ACTIVE_COMBAT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1252612253333.4854,3571706665029.458],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual cost of combat deaths (deaths × VSL)","displayName":"Annual Cost of Combat Deaths","formatted":"2336.00B USD/year","formula":"COMBAT_DEATHS × VSL ","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{combat,human} \\\\\n= Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL \\\\\n= 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M \\\\\n= \\$2.34T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":2336000000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_HUMAN_COST_STATE_VIOLENCE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[12035598905.954536,48375395296.44592],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual cost of state violence deaths (deaths × VSL)","displayName":"Annual Cost of State Violence Deaths","formatted":"27.00B USD/year","formula":"STATE_DEATHS × VSL ","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{state,human} \\\\\n= Deaths_{state} \\times VSL \\\\\n= 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M \\\\\n= \\$27B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":27000000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_HUMAN_COST_TERROR_ATTACKS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[43070035748.12736,131415887318.76921],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual cost of terror deaths (deaths × VSL)","displayName":"Annual Cost of Terror Deaths","formatted":"83.00B USD/year","formula":"TERROR_DEATHS × VSL ","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{terror,human} \\\\\n= Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL \\\\\n= 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M \\\\\n= \\$83B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":83000000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_HUMAN_LIFE_LOSSES_CONFLICT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1308985857347.3235,3751861504324.933],"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual human life losses from conflict (sum of combat, terror, state violence)","displayName":"Total Annual Human Life Losses from Conflict","formatted":"2446.00B USD/year","formula":"COMBAT_COST + TERROR_COST + STATE_VIOLENCE_COST","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nLoss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":2446000000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_INFRASTRUCTURE_DESTRUCTION_CONFLICT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1372226389821.7358,2469124938770.4927],"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual infrastructure destruction (sum of transportation, energy, communications, water, education, healthcare)","displayName":"Total Annual Infrastructure Destruction","formatted":"1875.00B USD/year","formula":"TRANSPORT + ENERGY + COMMS + WATER + EDUCATION + HEALTHCARE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDamage_{infra,total} \\\\\n= Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} \\\\\n+ Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} \\\\\n= \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B \\\\\n= \\$1.88T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":1875000000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_SAVINGS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[28103253810560.57,33941557644759.062],"conservative":null,"description":"Global annual savings in USD (savings rate × GDP)","displayName":"Global Annual Savings","formatted":"$31.05T","formula":"GLOBAL_SAVINGS_RATE_PCT × GLOBAL_GDP_2025","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nS_{annual} \\\\\n= s_{global} \\times GDP_{global} \\\\\n= 27\\% \\times \\$115T \\\\\n= \\$31.1T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":31050000000000.004},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_SAVINGS_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3589.0140483613495,4155.062568246285],"conservative":null,"description":"Global annual savings divided by global population. Useful as a rough average-person default for prize-contribution sizing.","displayName":"Global Annual Savings Per Capita","formatted":"3,881.25 USD/person/year","formula":"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_SAVINGS / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nS_{annual,pc} = \\frac{S_{annual}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$31.1T}{8B} = \\$3.88K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } S_{annual} = s_{global} \\times GDP_{global} = 27\\% \\times \\$115T = \\$31.1T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person/year","value":3881.2500000000005},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_TRADE_DISRUPTION_CONFLICT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[450496856219.31506,811653707947.4441],"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual trade disruption (sum of shipping, supply chain, energy prices, currency instability)","displayName":"Total Annual Trade Disruption","formatted":"616.00B USD/year","formula":"SHIPPING + SUPPLY_CHAIN + ENERGY_PRICE + CURRENCY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDisruption_{trade} \\\\\n= Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} \\\\\n+ Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} \\\\\n= \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B \\\\\n= \\$616B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":616000000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_WAR_DIRECT_COSTS_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[6138078786422.724,9400494780813.107],"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual direct war costs (military spending + infrastructure + human life + trade disruption)","displayName":"Total Annual Direct War Costs","formatted":"7657.00B USD/year","formula":"MILITARY + INFRASTRUCTURE + HUMAN_LIFE + TRADE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":7657000000000},"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_WAR_INDIRECT_COSTS_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2708298651093.4595,4872017098402.497],"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual indirect war costs (opportunity cost + veterans + refugees + environment + mental health + lost productivity)","displayName":"Total Annual Indirect War Costs","formatted":"3700.10B USD/year","formula":"OPPORTUNITY + VETERANS + REFUGEES + ENVIRONMENT + MENTAL_HEALTH + LOST_CAPITAL","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{war,indirect} \\\\\n= Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} \\\\\n+ Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} \\\\\n= \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B \\\\\n= \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":3700100000000},"GLOBAL_AVG_HOURLY_INCOME":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/recruitment-and-propaganda-plan.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[7.039043410288212,7.3432175923431275],"conservative":null,"description":"Global average hourly income derived from GDP per capita. Uses average (not median), which overestimates the cost of sharing, making the payoff ratio conservative.","displayName":"Global Average Hourly Income","formatted":"7.1875 USD/hour","formula":"GLOBAL_AVG_INCOME_2025 / ANNUAL_WORKING_HOURS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\bar{w}_{hour} = \\frac{\\bar{y}_{0}}{H_{work}} = \\frac{\\$14.4K}{2{,}000} = \\$7.19\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/hour","value":7.1875},"GLOBAL_AVG_INCOME_2025":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[14078.086820576422,14686.435184686256],"conservative":null,"description":"Global average income (GDP per capita) in 2025 baseline.","displayName":"Global Average Income (2025 Baseline)","formatted":"$14.38K","formula":"GLOBAL_GDP_2025 ÷ GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\bar{y}_{0} \\\\\n= \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} \\\\\n= \\$14.4K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":14375},"GLOBAL_AVG_REMAINING_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[45.151813025332594,51.78547999056681],"conservative":null,"description":"Average remaining lifespan for the median-age person. Conservative: uses life expectancy at birth minus median age, which underestimates remaining years because survivors to age 30 have higher conditional life expectancy.","displayName":"Average Remaining Years (Median Person)","formatted":"48.5 years","formula":"GLOBAL_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_2024 - GLOBAL_MEDIAN_AGE_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{remaining} \\\\\n= LE_{global} - Age_{median} \\\\\n= 79 - 30.5 \\\\\n= 48.5\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":48.5},"GLOBAL_BULLETS_PURCHASABLE_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/extinction-surplus.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[4669518343030.351,10180574891899.795],"conservative":null,"description":"Number of 5.56mm NATO rounds purchasable with the entire global military budget at bulk procurement prices. Pure purchasing power calculation, not a combat efficiency estimate.","displayName":"Bullets Purchasable with Global Military Budget","formatted":"6800.00B rounds","formula":"GLOBAL_MILITARY_SPENDING_ANNUAL_2024 / BULLET_COST_556_NATO","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{bullets,yr} \\\\\n= \\frac{Spending_{mil}}{c_{bullet}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$2.72T}{\\$0.4} \\\\\n= 6.8T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rounds","value":6800000000000},"GLOBAL_COORDINATION_ACTIVATION_BUDGET":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-protocol-v1.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[16402510271.502476,46859965775.95617],"conservative":null,"description":"Canonical institutional activation threshold: capital required to make participation by the majority-of-humanity coordination target credible through direct referral incentives, verification, payment rails, and global launch operations. This is the main institutional ask, not the PRIZE pool seed benchmark.","displayName":"Global Coordination Activation Budget","formatted":"$30.83B","formula":"GLOBAL_REGISTERED_VOTERS × GLOBAL_COORDINATION_ACTIVATION_COST_PER_PARTICIPANT + GLOBAL_COORDINATION_PLATFORM_AND_OPERATIONS_COST","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nB_{activate} = N_{voters,global} \\times C_{activate,pp} + C_{ops}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{activate,pp} = R_{activate} + C_{verify,pp} = \\$5 + \\$1.5 = \\$6.5\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":30832926217.5},"GLOBAL_COORDINATION_ACTIVATION_COST_PER_PARTICIPANT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/global-referendum.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3.4888597689994407,9.785479990566815],"conservative":null,"description":"Blended variable activation cost per successful verified participant: direct incentive plus verification and payment operations.","displayName":"Activation Cost per Participant","formatted":"$6.5","formula":"GLOBAL_COORDINATION_ACTIVATION_REWARD_PER_VERIFIED_PARTICIPANT + GLOBAL_COORDINATION_VERIFICATION_AND_PAYMENT_COST_PER_PARTICIPANT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nC_{activate,pp} \\\\\n= R_{activate} + C_{verify,pp} \\\\\n= \\$5 + \\$1.5 \\\\\n= \\$6.5\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":6.5},"GLOBAL_COORDINATION_TARGET_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/global-referendum.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.5053595517593127,0.5271973668344914],"conservative":null,"description":"Majority-of-humanity public coordination target as a share of global population, using global registered voters as the current verified-human headcount proxy.","displayName":"Majority of Humanity Coordination Target","formatted":"0.516017811875 percent","formula":"GLOBAL_REGISTERED_VOTERS / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nR_{humanity,majority} \\\\\n= \\frac{N_{voters,global}}{Pop_{global}} \\\\\n= \\frac{4.13B}{8B} \\\\\n= 51.6\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.516017811875},"GLOBAL_COST_PER_LIFE_SAVED_MED_RESEARCH_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[14274.802916457664,18254.304712024754],"conservative":null,"description":"Cost per life saved by medical research","displayName":"Cost per Life Saved by Medical Research","formatted":"16,071.429 USD/life","formula":"(RESEARCH_SPENDING × 1B) ÷ LIVES_SAVED","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{life,RD} \\\\\n= \\frac{Spending_{RD}}{Lives_{RD,ann}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$67.5B}{4.2M} \\\\\n= \\$16.1K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/life","value":16071.42857142857},"GLOBAL_DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_ANNUAL_2025":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Combined annual cost of military spending and cybercrime. The 'destructive economy' that competes with the productive economy.","displayName":"Global Destructive Economy (2025)","formatted":"$13.22T","formula":"GLOBAL_MILITARY_SPENDING_ANNUAL_2024 + GLOBAL_CYBERCRIME_COST_ANNUAL_2025","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{destruct} \\\\\n= Spending_{mil} + Cost_{cyber} \\\\\n= \\$2.72T + \\$10.5T \\\\\n= \\$13.2T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":13220000000000},"GLOBAL_DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_PCT_GDP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Destructive economy (military + cybercrime) as percentage of global GDP.","displayName":"Destructive Economy as % of GDP","formatted":"0.11495652173913043 percent","formula":"GLOBAL_DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_ANNUAL_2025 / GLOBAL_GDP_2025","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nr_{destruct:GDP} = \\frac{Cost_{destruct}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$13.2T}{\\$115T} = 11.5\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{destruct} = Spending_{mil} + Cost_{cyber} = \\$2.72T + \\$10.5T = \\$13.2T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.11495652173913043},"GLOBAL_DISEASE_DEATHS_PER_MINUTE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/questions.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[95.44742975347027,112.72260414210108],"conservative":null,"description":"Global deaths per minute from all disease and aging","displayName":"Global Deaths per Minute from Disease","formatted":"104.16666666666667 deaths/minute","formula":"GLOBAL_DISEASE_DEATHS_DAILY / 1440","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDeaths_{disease,min} \\\\\n= Deaths_{disease,daily} \\times 0.000694 \\\\\n= 150{,}000 \\times 0.000694 \\\\\n= 104\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"deaths/minute","value":104.16666666666667},"GLOBAL_DISEASE_ECONOMIC_BURDEN_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[240462223086801.38,587302115721698.8],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual welfare cost of avoidable disease globally. Calculated as global DALY burden × eventually avoidable percentage × standard QALY value ($150K). Uses consistent QALY valuation matching all other health impact calculations. Medical costs and productivity losses are NOT added separately to avoid double-counting (QALY valuation already captures these welfare components).","displayName":"Annual Welfare Cost of Avoidable Disease","formatted":"400152.13B USD/year","formula":"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DALY_BURDEN × EVENTUALLY_AVOIDABLE_DALY_PCT × STANDARD_ECONOMIC_QALY_VALUE_USD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nBurden_{disease} \\\\\n= DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times Value_{QALY} \\\\\n= 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times \\$150K \\\\\n= \\$400T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":400152130131680.9},"GLOBAL_GOVERNMENT_EXPENSE_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Approximate annual global government expenditure, computed as global GDP times the World Bank general-government expense share of GDP.","displayName":"Annual Global Government Expense","formatted":"36547.00B USD/year","formula":"GLOBAL_GDP_2025 × GLOBAL_GOVERNMENT_EXPENSE_PCT_GDP","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nExpense_{gov,global} \\\\\n= GDP_{global} \\times p_{gov,expense} \\\\\n= \\$115T \\times 31.8\\% \\\\\n= \\$36.5T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":36547000000000},"GLOBAL_HALE_GAP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[14.862953256333158,16.521093311002847],"conservative":null,"description":"Gap between life expectancy and healthy life expectancy. Represents years lived with disability or disease that could be recovered by curing diseases.","displayName":"Life Expectancy to HALE Gap","formatted":"15.700000000000003 years","formula":"GLOBAL_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_2024 - GLOBAL_HALE_CURRENT","latex":"\\Delta_{HALE} = LE_{global} - HALE_{0} = 79 - 63.3 = 15.7","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":15.700000000000003},"GLOBAL_INDUSTRY_CLINICAL_TRIALS_SPENDING_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[46636815843.17919,69000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual global industry spending on clinical trials (Total - Government)","displayName":"Annual Global Industry Spending on Clinical Trials","formatted":"$55.50B","formula":"TOTAL_CLINICAL_TRIALS - GOVT_CLINICAL_TRIALS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSpending_{trials,industry} \\\\\n= Spending_{trials} - Spending_{trials,gov} \\\\\n= \\$60B - \\$4.5B \\\\\n= \\$55.5B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":55500000000},"GLOBAL_MILITARY_SPENDING_PER_CAPITA_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[332.9773578431989,347.3661191508402],"conservative":null,"description":"Per capita military spending globally","displayName":"Per Capita Military Spending Globally","formatted":"340 USD/person/year","formula":"MILITARY_SPENDING ÷ POPULATION","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSpending_{mil,pc} \\\\\n= \\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Pop_{global}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$2.72T}{8B} \\\\\n= \\$340\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person/year","value":340},"GLOBAL_MILITARY_SPENDING_POST_TREATY_ANNUAL_2024":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/aligning-incentives.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Global military spending after 1% treaty reduction","displayName":"Global Military Spending After 1% Treaty Reduction","formatted":"2692.80B USD/year","formula":"MILITARY_SPENDING × (1 - REDUCTION)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSpending_{mil,post} \\\\\n= Spending_{mil} \\times (1 - Reduce_{treaty}) \\\\\n= \\$2.72T \\times (1 - 1\\%) \\\\\n= \\$2.69T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":2692800000000},"GLOBAL_MILITARY_SPENDING_REAL_CAGR_20YR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/1-percent-treaty.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Real compound annual growth rate of global military spending over the last 20 years (2005-2024), computed from SIPRI World totals in constant 2023 USD. This window deliberately includes the 2011-2014 drawdown, so it cannot be attacked as trough-to-peak cherry picking. The 20-year rate (~2.75%) is actually lower than the 10-year rate (3.4%) precisely because the drawdown pulls the average down.","displayName":"Military Spending Real CAGR (20-Year)","formatted":"0.027589264230032606 percent","formula":"(GLOBAL_MILITARY_SPENDING_ANNUAL_2024 / GLOBAL_MILITARY_SPENDING_ANNUAL_2005)^(1/19) - 1","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\ng_{mil,20yr} \\\\\n= \\left(\\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Spending_{mil,2005}}\\right)^{\\frac{1}{19}} - 1\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.027589264230032606},"GLOBAL_POLITICAL_REFORM_INVESTMENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/cost-of-change-analysis.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[55204908356.46437,265598764020.24426],"conservative":null,"description":"Estimated global advocacy investment for policy reform. Calculated as US costs × global ratio (based on discretionary spending). Upper bound representing full democratic engagement at scale.","displayName":"Global Political Reform Investment","formatted":"$127.55B","formula":"US_POLITICAL_REFORM × GLOBAL_RATIO","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{global,reform} = Cost_{US,total} \\times \\rho_{global/US} = \\$25.5B \\times 5 = \\$128B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{US,total} = (Cost_{campaign} + Cost_{lobby} \\times 2) \\times \\mu_{effort} + Cost_{career}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{US,congress} = N_{congress} \\times V_{post-office} = 535 \\times \\$10M = \\$5.35B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":127550000000},"GLOBAL_TOTAL_HEALTH_AND_WAR_COST_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[250110473599734.5,600810679454650.6],"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual welfare cost of war and disease. Disease burden uses DALY-based welfare valuation; war costs use direct + indirect economic costs. Symptomatic treatment costs NOT added separately (already captured in QALY valuation).","displayName":"Total Annual Cost of War and Disease","formatted":"411509.23B USD/year","formula":"WAR_TOTAL_COSTS + DISEASE_WELFARE_BURDEN","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{health+war} = Cost_{war,total} + Burden_{disease} = \\$11.4T + \\$400T = \\$412T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Burden_{disease} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times Value_{QALY} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times \\$150K = \\$400T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":411509230131680.9},"GLOBAL_WAR_COST_LIFETIME_CUMULATIVE_BASELINE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2555223954500766.5,3985480232036186.5],"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative global war cost over 80 years (one human lifespan) on the baseline trajectory, where war costs keep compounding at SIPRI's 20-year real CAGR (2.76%). This is what the world pays if nothing changes.","displayName":"Cumulative 80-Year War Cost (Baseline Trajectory)","formatted":"$3219.90T","formula":"C × ((1 + g)^80 - 1) / g","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{war,cum,baseline} = C \\times ((1 + g)^{80} - 1) / g\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{mil,20yr} = \\left(\\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Spending_{mil,2005}}\\right)^{\\frac{1}{19}} - 1\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":3219900482223735},"GLOBAL_WAR_COST_LIFETIME_CUMULATIVE_TREATY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[713804287866254.9,1113347765006158.4],"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative global war cost over 80 years under the treaty trajectory, where costs drop 1% immediately and then hold flat (no growth). This is what the world pays after the treaty passes.","displayName":"Cumulative 80-Year War Cost (Treaty Trajectory)","formatted":"$899.48T","formula":"C × (1 - TREATY_REDUCTION_PCT) × 80","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{war,cum,treaty} = C \\times (1 - Reduce_{treaty}) \\times 80\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":899482320000000},"GLOBAL_WAR_COST_LIFETIME_PER_PERSON_ABOLITION_COMPOUNDED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[197503622.18895984,296599180.0890935],"conservative":null,"description":"Per-person future value at year 80 of the full baseline war cost stream, compounded at the illustrative long-term real return rate (13%, Nasdaq-100 historical). This is the hypothetical opportunity cost per person of running the baseline SIPRI trajectory rather than abolishing war entirely and redirecting every dollar. Serves as the ceiling on the peace dividend ladder: the treaty gets you a large fraction of this number, full abolition gets you all of it.","displayName":"Per-Person War Cost (Full Abolition) Compounded at 13% over 80 Years","formatted":"$244.28M","formula":"[Σ_{t=0..79} C(1+g)^t × (1+r)^(79-t)] / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nFV_{pp,abolition} = [Σ_{t=0..79} C(1+g)^t \\times (1+r)^{79-t}] / Pop_{global}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{mil,20yr} = \\left(\\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Spending_{mil,2005}}\\right)^{\\frac{1}{19}} - 1\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":244281227.625377},"GLOBAL_WAR_COST_LIFETIME_PER_PERSON_BASELINE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/1-percent-treaty.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[325414.89910474705,488688.71969801374],"conservative":null,"description":"Per-person 80-year lifetime tab for global war costs on the SIPRI baseline trajectory (2.76% real growth). About 3.5x the flat-assumption figure the chapter opens with, because war costs have been compounding while nobody updated the invoice.","displayName":"Per-Person 80-Year War Cost (Baseline Trajectory)","formatted":"$402.49K","formula":"GLOBAL_WAR_COST_LIFETIME_CUMULATIVE_BASELINE / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{war,pp,baseline} = \\frac{Cost_{war,cum,baseline}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$3220T}{8B} = \\$402K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,cum,baseline} = C \\times ((1 + g)^{80} - 1) / g\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{mil,20yr} = \\left(\\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Spending_{mil,2005}}\\right)^{\\frac{1}{19}} - 1\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":402487.5602779669},"GLOBAL_WAR_COST_LIFETIME_PER_PERSON_FLAT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[91823.19940696158,137894.61355400147],"conservative":null,"description":"Per-person 80-year lifetime tab for global war costs, assuming costs stay flat at today's level. This is the conservative floor the chapter opens with. The actual figure is higher because war costs have been compounding in real terms.","displayName":"Per-Person 80-Year War Cost (Flat Assumption)","formatted":"$113.57K","formula":"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DIRECT_INDIRECT_WAR_COST × 80 / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{war,pp,flat} = Cost_{war,total} \\times \\frac{80}{Pop_{global}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":113571},"GLOBAL_WAR_COST_YEARS_UNTIL_EXCEEDS_GDP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[77.22726656364745,93.56050718899587],"conservative":null,"description":"Years until annual war cost exceeds current world GDP at the SIPRI 20-year real growth rate. At ~2.76% real growth and $11.4T current war cost, this happens in under a century. The baseline trajectory is therefore a countdown, not a plan.","displayName":"Years Until Baseline War Cost Exceeds Current World GDP","formatted":"85.06497145786949 years","formula":"log(GLOBAL_GDP_2025 / GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DIRECT_INDIRECT_WAR_COST) / log(1 + g_{mil,20yr})","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{GDP} = log\\left(\\frac{GDP_{global}}{Cost_{war,total}}\\right) / log(1 + g_{mil,20yr})\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{mil,20yr} = \\left(\\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Spending_{mil,2005}}\\right)^{\\frac{1}{19}} - 1\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":85.06497145786949},"GLOBAL_WAR_COST_YEAR_80_BASELINE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[79509429249982.17,124013888480548.3],"conservative":null,"description":"Projected annual war cost in year 80 under the baseline trajectory, assuming the SIPRI 20-year real CAGR continues. At ~2.76% real growth, this approaches current world GDP (which is why the baseline trajectory breaks math around year 85).","displayName":"Annual War Cost in Year 80 (Baseline Trajectory)","formatted":"100191.79B USD/year","formula":"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DIRECT_INDIRECT_WAR_COST × (1 + g_{mil,20yr})^80","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{war,yr80} = Cost_{war,total} \\times (1 + g_{mil,20yr})^{80}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{mil,20yr} = \\left(\\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Spending_{mil,2005}}\\right)^{\\frac{1}{19}} - 1\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":100191785198480.03},"HEALTHCARE_VS_MILITARY_MULTIPLIER_RATIO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[6.825557361653207,7.569859643543103],"conservative":null,"description":"Ratio of healthcare to military fiscal multipliers. Healthcare investment generates 7× more economic activity per dollar than military spending.","displayName":"Healthcare vs Military Multiplier Ratio","formatted":"7.166666666666667 x","formula":"ECONOMIC_MULTIPLIER_HEALTHCARE_INVESTMENT / ECONOMIC_MULTIPLIER_MILITARY_SPENDING","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nr_{health/mil} \\\\\n= \\frac{k_{health}}{k_{mil}} \\\\\n= \\frac{4.3}{0.6} \\\\\n= 7.17\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":7.166666666666667},"IAB_MECHANISM_BENEFIT_COST_RATIO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/incentive-alignment-bonds-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[186.1037099391335,283.61308382607103],"conservative":null,"description":"Benefit-Cost Ratio of the IAB mechanism itself","displayName":"IAB Mechanism Benefit-Cost Ratio","formatted":"229.61531707317073 ratio","formula":"TREATY_PEACE_PLUS_RD_BENEFITS ÷ IAB_MECHANISM_COST","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nBCR_{IAB} = \\frac{Benefit_{peace+RD}}{Cost_{IAB,ann}} = \\frac{\\$172B}{\\$750M} = 230\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace+RD} = Benefit_{peace,soc} + Benefit_{RD,ann} = \\$114B + \\$58.6B = \\$172B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{RD,ann} = Spending_{trials} \\times Reduce_{pct} = \\$60B \\times 97.7\\% = \\$58.6B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Reduce_{pct} = 1 - \\frac{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}}{Cost_{P3,pt}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$929}{\\$41K} = 97.7\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"https://iab.warondisease.org##welfare-analysis","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://iab.warondisease.org##welfare-analysis","stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":229.61531707317073},"IAB_POLITICAL_INCENTIVE_FUNDING_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Annual funding for IAB political incentive mechanism (independent expenditures supporting high-scoring politicians, post-office fellowship endowments, Public Good Score infrastructure)","displayName":"Annual IAB Political Incentive Funding","formatted":"2.72B USD/year","formula":"TREATY_FUNDING × IAB_POLITICAL_INCENTIVE_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nFunding_{political,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{political} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":2720000000},"IAB_VS_DEFENSE_LOBBY_RATIO_AT_1PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Ratio of IAB political incentive funding to defense industry lobbying at 1% treaty level. At just 1%, the health lobby already outguns the defense lobby by this factor.","displayName":"IAB vs Defense Lobbying Ratio at 1% Treaty","formatted":"21.41732283464567 x","formula":"IAB_POLITICAL_INCENTIVE_FUNDING_ANNUAL / DEFENSE_LOBBYING_ANNUAL","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{IAB:defense} = \\frac{Funding_{political,ann}}{Lobby_{def,ann}} = \\frac{\\$2.72B}{\\$127M} = 21.4\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{political,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{political} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":21.41732283464567},"INDUSTRY_VS_GOVERNMENT_CLINICAL_TRIALS_SPENDING_RATIO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/global-government-medical-research-spending.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[11.5,15.437963401867979],"conservative":null,"description":"Ratio of Industry to Government spending on clinical trials (approx 90/10 split)","displayName":"Ratio of Industry to Government Clinical Trials Spending","formatted":"12.333333333333334 ratio","formula":"(TOTAL - GOVT) / GOVT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nRatio_{ind:gov} \\\\\n= \\frac{Spending_{trials}}{Spending_{trials,gov}} - 1 \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$60B}{\\$4.5B} - 1 \\\\\n= 12.3\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"industry-vs-government-trial-spending-split","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://www.appliedclinicaltrialsonline.com/view/sizing-clinical-research-market","stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":12.333333333333334},"LIFE_EXPECTANCY_GAIN_1883_1962_YEARS_PER_DECADE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3.853729979409657,3.907282573742793],"conservative":null,"description":"US life expectancy linear gain rate 1883-1962 (pre-Kefauver-Harris).","displayName":"Life Expectancy Gain Rate (1883-1962)","formatted":"3.8802531645569616 years/decade","formula":"(life_exp_1962 - life_exp_1880) / 7.9 decades","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\Delta LE_{pre62} \\\\\n= \\frac{LE_{US,1962} - LE_{US,1880}}{7.9} \\\\\n= \\frac{70.1 - 39.4}{7.9} \\\\\n= 3.88\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"life-expectancy-increase-pre-1962","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/data/us-life-expectancy-fda-budget-1543-2019.csv","stdError":null,"unit":"years/decade","value":3.8802531645569616},"LIFE_EXPECTANCY_GAIN_1962_2019_YEARS_PER_DECADE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"US life expectancy linear gain rate 1962-2019 (post-Kefauver-Harris).","displayName":"Life Expectancy Gain Rate (1962-2019)","formatted":"1.5435087719298248 years/decade","formula":"(life_exp_2019 - life_exp_1962) / 5.7 decades","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\Delta LE_{post62} \\\\\n= \\frac{LE_{US,2019} - LE_{US,1962}}{5.7} \\\\\n= \\frac{78.9 - 70.1}{5.7} \\\\\n= 1.54\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"post-1962-life-expectancy-slowdown","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/data/us-life-expectancy-fda-budget-1543-2019.csv","stdError":null,"unit":"years/decade","value":1.5435087719298248},"LOST_PROSPERITY_LIFETIME_DAMAGES_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[8282899.0413094135,71555472.52488169],"conservative":null,"description":"Representative full-life cohort exposure: lifetime lost earnings under the 8-channel compound peace economy counterfactual, undiscounted, over WHO global life expectancy at birth. NOT a uniform per-individual award. A 5-year-old, 45-year-old, and 85-year-old plaintiff would each have a different remaining-life horizon; this number is the representative full-cohort exposure used as the single-theory headline. Implicitly captures war deaths, property destruction, and medical opportunity cost via their drag on compound growth, so cannot be added to the body-count ledger.","displayName":"Lost-Prosperity-Only Lifetime Damages, Representative Full-Life Cohort","formatted":"25.22M USD/person","formula":"WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_LOST_GDP_PER_CAPITA × GLOBAL_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{prosperity,life,pc} = GDP_{pc,lost} \\times LE_{global} = \\$319K \\times 79 = \\$25.2M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{pc,lost} = GDP_{pc,peace} - \\bar{y}_{0} = \\$334K - \\$14.4K = \\$319K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\begin{gathered}\nGDP_{pc,peace} \\\\\n= GDP_{pc,1900} \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\bar{y}_{0}}{GDP_{pc,1900}}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + g_{war,penalty}\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$3.15K \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\$14.4K}{\\$3.15K}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + 2.6\\%\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$334K\n\\end{gathered}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":25221597.096411757},"LOST_PROSPERITY_LIFETIME_DAMAGES_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[66300940403780230,573601729251532350],"conservative":null,"description":"Global lifetime lost prosperity damages, undiscounted, WHO global life expectancy horizon. Single coherent damages theory under corporate-liability lost-profits doctrine: the integral of the productive economy that didn't happen because of the destructive economy. Cannot be added to the body-count ledger; replaces it as a single-theory pleading.","displayName":"Lost-Prosperity-Only Lifetime Damages Total (Cohort Horizon)","formatted":"$201772.78T","formula":"WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_LOST_GDP_GLOBAL × GLOBAL_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{prosperity,life} = GDP_{lost,total} \\times LE_{global} = \\$2550T \\times 79 = \\$202000T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{lost,total} = GDP_{pc,lost} \\times Pop_{global} = \\$319K \\times 8B = \\$2550T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{pc,lost} = GDP_{pc,peace} - \\bar{y}_{0} = \\$334K - \\$14.4K = \\$319K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\begin{gathered}\nGDP_{pc,peace} \\\\\n= GDP_{pc,1900} \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\bar{y}_{0}}{GDP_{pc,1900}}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + g_{war,penalty}\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$3.15K \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\$14.4K}{\\$3.15K}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + 2.6\\%\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$334K\n\\end{gathered}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":201772776771294050},"LOST_PROSPERITY_NPV_PERPETUITY_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[3504162.2110935003,30276501.45418476],"conservative":null,"description":"Net present value of perpetual annual lost-income flow per representative living human, at the standard 3% social discount rate, under a no-cure/no-convergence baseline. Sensitivity exposure for the corporate-liability lost-profits theory. Treats the lost-prosperity flow as continuing indefinitely; a finite-horizon convergence assumption would shrink this slightly (~5% reduction at 100 years). Single-theory pleading; cannot be added to the body-count ledger.","displayName":"Lost-Prosperity-Only NPV Perpetuity Per Capita (3%, No-Cure Baseline)","formatted":"10.64M USD/person","formula":"WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_LOST_GDP_PER_CAPITA / NPV_DISCOUNT_RATE_STANDARD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{prosperity,NPV,pc} = \\frac{GDP_{pc,lost}}{r_{discount}} = \\frac{\\$319K}{3\\%} = \\$10.6M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{pc,lost} = GDP_{pc,peace} - \\bar{y}_{0} = \\$334K - \\$14.4K = \\$319K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\begin{gathered}\nGDP_{pc,peace} \\\\\n= GDP_{pc,1900} \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\bar{y}_{0}}{GDP_{pc,1900}}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + g_{war,penalty}\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$3.15K \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\$14.4K}{\\$3.15K}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + 2.6\\%\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$334K\n\\end{gathered}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":10642024.091312978},"LOST_PROSPERITY_NPV_PERPETUITY_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[27987474691138160,242256402206632130],"conservative":null,"description":"Net present value of perpetual lost-income flow globally, at the standard 3% social discount rate, under a no-cure/no-convergence baseline. Sensitivity exposure under corporate-liability lost-profits doctrine. Cannot be added to the body-count ledger.","displayName":"Lost-Prosperity-Only NPV Perpetuity Total (3%, No-Cure Baseline)","formatted":"$85136.19T","formula":"WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_LOST_GDP_GLOBAL / NPV_DISCOUNT_RATE_STANDARD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nD_{prosperity,NPV} = \\frac{GDP_{lost,total}}{r_{discount}} = \\frac{\\$2550T}{3\\%} = \\$85100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{lost,total} = GDP_{pc,lost} \\times Pop_{global} = \\$319K \\times 8B = \\$2550T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{pc,lost} = GDP_{pc,peace} - \\bar{y}_{0} = \\$334K - \\$14.4K = \\$319K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\begin{gathered}\nGDP_{pc,peace} \\\\\n= GDP_{pc,1900} \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\bar{y}_{0}}{GDP_{pc,1900}}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + g_{war,penalty}\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$3.15K \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\$14.4K}{\\$3.15K}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + 2.6\\%\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$334K\n\\end{gathered}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":85136192730503820},"MEDICAL_RESEARCH_PCT_OF_DISEASE_BURDEN":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.00013022967682452618,0.0002427511902874175],"conservative":null,"description":"Medical research spending as percentage of total disease burden","displayName":"Medical Research Spending as Percentage of Total Disease Burden","formatted":"0.0%","formula":"MED_RESEARCH ÷ TOTAL_BURDEN","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nPct_{RD:burden} = \\frac{Spending_{RD}}{Cost_{health+war}} = \\frac{\\$67.5B}{\\$412T} = 0.0164\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{health+war} = Cost_{war,total} + Burden_{disease} = \\$11.4T + \\$400T = \\$412T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Burden_{disease} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times Value_{QALY} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times \\$150K = \\$400T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.00016403034259620457},"MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_OBSERVED_ANCHOR_COSTS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Sum of observed anchor costs for major medical toolchain programs. This is anchor evidence for the prosecutor reserve, not a claim that these programs alone cure disease.","displayName":"Observed Medical Toolchain Anchor Costs","formatted":"$58.63B","formula":"HGP + CRISPR + BRAIN + PCORnet + HITECH + OWS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nC_{tool,anchors} \\\\\n= C_{tool,HGP} + C_{tool,CRISPR} + C_{tool,BRAIN} \\\\\n+ C_{tool,PCORnet} + C_{tool,EHR} + C_{tool,OWS} \\\\\n= \\$2.7B + \\$3.1B + \\$4.5B + \\$325M + \\$30B + \\$18B \\\\\n= \\$58.6B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":58625000000},"MILITARY_TO_CLINICAL_TRIALS_SPENDING_RATIO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[36.266666666666666,54.4],"conservative":null,"description":"Ratio of global military spending to all clinical trials spending (government + industry + nonprofit)","displayName":"Ratio of Military to Clinical Trials Spending","formatted":"45.333333333333336 ratio","formula":"MILITARY_SPENDING / TOTAL_CLINICAL_TRIALS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nRatio_{mil:trials} \\\\\n= \\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Spending_{trials}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$2.72T}{\\$60B} \\\\\n= 45.3\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":45.333333333333336},"MILITARY_TO_GOVERNMENT_CLINICAL_TRIALS_SPENDING_RATIO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/1-percent-treaty.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[453.3333333333333,894.2252090616181],"conservative":null,"description":"Ratio of global military spending to government clinical trials spending","displayName":"Ratio of Military to Government Clinical Trials Spending","formatted":"604.4444444444445 ratio","formula":"MILITARY_SPENDING / GOVT_CLINICAL_TRIALS_SPENDING","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nRatio_{mil:gov} \\\\\n= \\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Spending_{trials,gov}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$2.72T}{\\$4.5B} \\\\\n= 604\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":604.4444444444445},"MILITARY_VS_MEDICAL_RESEARCH_RATIO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[34.26917217601371,48.029840315103336],"conservative":null,"description":"Ratio of military spending to medical research spending","displayName":"Ratio of Military Spending to Medical Research Spending","formatted":"40.2962962962963 ratio","formula":"MILITARY_SPENDING ÷ MEDICAL_RESEARCH","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nRatio_{mil:RD} \\\\\n= \\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Spending_{RD}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$2.72T}{\\$67.5B} \\\\\n= 40.3\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":40.2962962962963},"MISALLOCATION_FACTOR_DEATH_VS_SAVING":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2483.0304081542563,3321.5699678139463],"conservative":null,"description":"Misallocation factor: cost to kill vs cost to save","displayName":"Misallocation Factor: Cost to Kill vs Cost to Save","formatted":"2,889.06 x","formula":"COST_PER_DEATH ÷ COST_PER_LIFE_SAVED","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{misalloc} = \\frac{Cost_{war,total}}{Deaths_{conflict} \\times Cost_{life,RD}} = \\frac{\\$11.4T}{245{,}000 \\times \\$16.1K} = 2{,}890\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{conflict} = Deaths_{combat} + Deaths_{state} + Deaths_{terror} = 234{,}000 + 2{,}700 + 8{,}300 = 245{,}000\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{life,RD} = \\frac{Spending_{RD}}{Lives_{RD,ann}} = \\frac{\\$67.5B}{4.2M} = \\$16.1K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":2889.0596892886347},"MRNA_THERAPEUTIC_COMBINATIONS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[15653396.315316133,24662036.503855042],"conservative":null,"description":"mRNA therapeutic combinations (protein replacement, vaccines, enzyme delivery)","displayName":"mRNA Therapeutic Combinations","formatted":"20.00M combinations","formula":"PROTEINS × DISEASES","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCombos_{mRNA} \\\\\n= N_{genes} \\times N_{diseases,trial} \\\\\n= 20{,}000 \\times 1{,}000 \\\\\n= 20M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"combinations","value":20000000},"NIH_TRADITIONAL_TRIAL_MAX_EFFICIENCY_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/nih-fails-2-institute-health.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[0.011226161937541213,0.025362656701175084],"conservative":null,"description":"Maximum efficiency of NIH traditional Phase 3 trials relative to pragmatic trials, expressed as a percentage. Calculated as pragmatic cost / traditional cost. This is a CEILING on NIH trial efficiency because: (1) only 3.3% of NIH budget goes to clinical trials at all, and (2) the other 96.7% funds basic research with far lower marginal value when thousands of safe compounds already await testing.","displayName":"NIH Traditional Trial Maximum Efficiency vs Pragmatic (%)","formatted":"0.022658536585365853 percent","formula":"PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_COST ÷ TRADITIONAL_PHASE3_COST","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\eta_{NIH,max} \\\\\n= \\frac{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}}{Cost_{P3,pt}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$929}{\\$41K} \\\\\n= 2.27\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.022658536585365853},"NUCLEAR_WINTER_OVERKILL_FACTOR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/extinction-surplus.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[42.57726523263751,196.5850911895582],"conservative":null,"description":"How many times the global nuclear arsenal exceeds the threshold for civilizational collapse via regional-scale nuclear winter (~100 warheads, ~5 Tg soot, ~2 billion famine deaths, global food system collapse). The arsenal-based overkill factor against the apocalypse the median human experiences.","displayName":"Nuclear Winter Overkill Factor","formatted":"122.41 x","formula":"GLOBAL_WARHEAD_COUNT / NUCLEAR_WINTER_WARHEAD_THRESHOLD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nOverkill_{winter} \\\\\n= \\frac{W_{global}}{W_{winter}} \\\\\n= \\frac{12{,}200}{100} \\\\\n= 122\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":122.41},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_ANNUAL_SOCIETAL_BENEFIT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[90126804023.51703,140574212753.30283],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual peace dividend from 1% reduction in total war costs (theoretical maximum at ε=1.0)","displayName":"Annual Peace Dividend from 1% Reduction in Total War Costs","formatted":"113.57B USD/year","formula":"TOTAL_WAR_COST × 1% × ε (baseline ε=1.0)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nBenefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":113571000000},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_CONFLICT_REDUCTION":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[62926804023.51703,113374212753.30284],"conservative":null,"description":"Conflict reduction benefits from 1% less military spending (lower confidence - assumes proportional relationship)","displayName":"Conflict Reduction Benefits from 1% Less Military Spending","formatted":"86.37B USD/year","formula":"PEACE_DIVIDEND_ANNUAL_SOCIETAL_BENEFIT - TREATY_ANNUAL_FUNDING","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{conflict} = Benefit_{peace,soc} - Funding_{treaty} = \\$114B - \\$27.2B = \\$86.4B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"calculated","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":86371000000},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_DIRECT_COSTS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[61380787864.22724,94004947808.13107],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual savings from 1% reduction in direct war costs","displayName":"Annual Savings from 1% Reduction in Direct War Costs","formatted":"76.57B USD/year","formula":"DIRECT_COSTS × 1%","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{direct} = Cost_{war,direct} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$7.66T \\times 1\\% = \\$76.6B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":76570000000},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_ENVIRONMENTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[731763912.6266211,1316994814.3990946],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual savings from 1% reduction in environmental damage","displayName":"Annual Savings from 1% Reduction in Environmental Damage","formatted":"1.00B USD/year","formula":"ENVIRONMENTAL_DAMAGE × 1%","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{env} \\\\\n= Damage_{env} \\times Reduce_{treaty} \\\\\n= \\$100B \\times 1\\% \\\\\n= \\$1B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":1000000000},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_HUMAN_CASUALTIES":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[13089858573.473236,37518615043.24933],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual savings from 1% reduction in human casualties","displayName":"Annual Savings from 1% Reduction in Human Casualties","formatted":"24.46B USD/year","formula":"HUMAN_LIFE_LOSSES × 1%","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{casualties} = Loss_{life,conflict} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.45T \\times 1\\% = \\$24.5B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":24460000000},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_INDIRECT_COSTS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[27082986510.934593,48720170984.02497],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual savings from 1% reduction in indirect war costs","displayName":"Annual Savings from 1% Reduction in Indirect War Costs","formatted":"37.00B USD/year","formula":"INDIRECT_COSTS × 1%","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{indirect} = Cost_{war,indirect} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$3.7T \\times 1\\% = \\$37B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":37001000000},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_INFRASTRUCTURE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[13722263898.21736,24691249387.704926],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual savings from 1% reduction in infrastructure destruction","displayName":"Annual Savings from 1% Reduction in Infrastructure Destruction","formatted":"18.75B USD/year","formula":"INFRASTRUCTURE_DESTRUCTION × 1%","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{infra} = Damage_{infra,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$1.88T \\times 1\\% = \\$18.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":18750000000},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_LIFETIME_PER_PERSON":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/1-percent-treaty.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[234509.93169185508,352173.05227955227],"conservative":null,"description":"Per-person share of the 80-year cumulative peace dividend, averaged across the global population. Not literally a check in the reader's pocket: most of it arrives as infrastructure not destroyed, wages not taxed to rebuild things that should not have been destroyed, and conflicts that never happen. Per-capita division hides that the poorest bear far more than the average today.","displayName":"Per-Person 80-Year Peace Dividend","formatted":"$290.05K","formula":"PEACE_DIVIDEND_LIFETIME_TOTAL / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{pp,LT} = \\frac{Savings_{LT}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$2320T}{8B} = \\$290K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Savings_{LT} = Cost_{war,cum,baseline} - Cost_{war,cum,treaty} = \\$3220T - \\$899T = \\$2320T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,cum,baseline} = C \\times ((1 + g)^{80} - 1) / g\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{mil,20yr} = \\left(\\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Spending_{mil,2005}}\\right)^{\\frac{1}{19}} - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,cum,treaty} = C \\times (1 - Reduce_{treaty}) \\times 80\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":290052.27027796686},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_LIFETIME_PER_PERSON_COMPOUNDED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[43402741.181202844,65179652.43010861],"conservative":null,"description":"Per-person future value at year 80 of the treaty peace dividend stream, compounded at the illustrative long-term real return rate (13%, Nasdaq-100 historical). Each year's savings are invested at the end of that year and compound until year 80. This is an opportunity-cost framing, not a promise of cash in the reader's pocket: the 'return' is the real productive use of capital that weapons spending displaced, not a literal brokerage account.","displayName":"Per-Person Peace Dividend Compounded at 13% over 80 Years","formatted":"$53.68M","formula":"[Σ_{t=0..79} (C(1+g)^t - C(1-p)) × (1+r)^(79-t)] / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nFV_{pp,treaty} = [Σ_{t=0..79} (C(1+g)^t - C(1-p)) \\times (1+r)^{79-t}] / Pop_{global}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{mil,20yr} = \\left(\\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Spending_{mil,2005}}\\right)^{\\frac{1}{19}} - 1\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":53682432.6589155},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_LIFETIME_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1841419666634511.8,2872132467030028],"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative peace dividend over 80 years (one human lifespan): the baseline 80-year war cost (SIPRI trajectory) minus the treaty 80-year war cost (flat at 99% of today). Assumes elasticity of 1.0 between military spending and war costs, which is almost certainly conservative because the political act of passing the treaty itself would reflect and reinforce a 'war is stupid' consensus that reduces externalities super-proportionally.","displayName":"Cumulative Peace Dividend Over 80 Years","formatted":"$2320.42T","formula":"GLOBAL_WAR_COST_LIFETIME_CUMULATIVE_BASELINE - GLOBAL_WAR_COST_LIFETIME_CUMULATIVE_TREATY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{LT} = Cost_{war,cum,baseline} - Cost_{war,cum,treaty} = \\$3220T - \\$899T = \\$2320T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,cum,baseline} = C \\times ((1 + g)^{80} - 1) / g\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{mil,20yr} = \\left(\\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Spending_{mil,2005}}\\right)^{\\frac{1}{19}} - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,cum,treaty} = C \\times (1 - Reduce_{treaty}) \\times 80\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":2320418162223735},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_LOST_ECONOMIC_GROWTH":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[19898121095.409164,35783415454.94737],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual savings from 1% reduction in lost economic growth","displayName":"Annual Savings from 1% Reduction in Lost Economic Growth","formatted":"27.18B USD/year","formula":"LOST_ECONOMIC_GROWTH × 1%","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{growth} \\\\\n= Loss_{growth,mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} \\\\\n= \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% \\\\\n= \\$27.2B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":27180000000},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_LOST_HUMAN_CAPITAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2195291737.879858,3950984443.1972747],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual savings from 1% reduction in lost human capital","displayName":"Annual Savings from 1% Reduction in Lost Human Capital","formatted":"3.00B USD/year","formula":"LOST_HUMAN_CAPITAL × 1%","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{capital} \\\\\n= Loss_{capital,conflict} \\times Reduce_{treaty} \\\\\n= \\$300B \\times 1\\% \\\\\n= \\$3B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":3000000000},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_PTSD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1695668005.6413937,3058314074.854961],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual savings from 1% reduction in PTSD and mental health costs","displayName":"Annual Savings from 1% Reduction in PTSD and Mental Health Costs","formatted":"2.32B USD/year","formula":"PTSD_COSTS × 1%","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{PTSD} \\\\\n= Cost_{psych} \\times Reduce_{treaty} \\\\\n= \\$232B \\times 1\\% \\\\\n= \\$2.32B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":2320000000},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_REFUGEE_SUPPORT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1097645868.939931,1975492221.5986402],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual savings from 1% reduction in refugee support costs","displayName":"Annual Savings from 1% Reduction in Refugee Support Costs","formatted":"1.50B USD/year","formula":"REFUGEE_SUPPORT × 1%","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{refugee} \\\\\n= Cost_{refugee} \\times Reduce_{treaty} \\\\\n= \\$150B \\times 1\\% \\\\\n= \\$1.5B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":1500000000},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_SHARE_OF_80YR_BASELINE_WAR_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Fraction of the baseline 80-year war cost avoided by the treaty. Because the baseline compounds exponentially while the treaty holds spending flat, cutting 1% today and halting the growth trajectory avoids about 72% of the cumulative 80-year war cost. Most of the savings come from the halted growth, not the headline 1% cut.","displayName":"Share of 80-Year War Cost Avoided by Treaty","formatted":"0.7206490309356401 percent","formula":"PEACE_DIVIDEND_LIFETIME_TOTAL / GLOBAL_WAR_COST_LIFETIME_CUMULATIVE_BASELINE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\phi_{avoided} = \\frac{Savings_{LT}}{Cost_{war,cum,baseline}} = \\frac{\\$2320T}{\\$3220T} = 72.1\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Savings_{LT} = Cost_{war,cum,baseline} - Cost_{war,cum,treaty} = \\$3220T - \\$899T = \\$2320T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,cum,baseline} = C \\times ((1 + g)^{80} - 1) / g\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{mil,20yr} = \\left(\\frac{Spending_{mil}}{Spending_{mil,2005}}\\right)^{\\frac{1}{19}} - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,cum,treaty} = C \\times (1 - Reduce_{treaty}) \\times 80\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.7206490309356401},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_TRADE_DISRUPTION":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[4504968562.1931505,8116537079.474441],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual savings from 1% reduction in trade disruption","displayName":"Annual Savings from 1% Reduction in Trade Disruption","formatted":"6.16B USD/year","formula":"TRADE_DISRUPTION × 1%","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{trade} = Disruption_{trade} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$616B \\times 1\\% = \\$6.16B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":6160000000},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_VETERAN_HEALTHCARE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1464495890.437629,2634969975.027636],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual savings from 1% reduction in veteran healthcare costs","displayName":"Annual Savings from 1% Reduction in Veteran Healthcare Costs","formatted":"2.00B USD/year","formula":"VETERAN_HEALTHCARE × 1%","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{vet} \\\\\n= Cost_{vet} \\times Reduce_{treaty} \\\\\n= \\$200B \\times 1\\% \\\\\n= \\$2B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":2001000000},"PEACE_TRAJECTORY_TOTAL_DIFFERENTIAL_20YR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[13609909266727.979,19461808679383.133],"conservative":null,"description":"Total 20-year value of the peace trajectory: research funding redirected to medicine plus war externality costs avoided. The full differential between the IAB trajectory and the current trajectory. Does not include existential risk reduction.","displayName":"Peace Trajectory Total Differential (20yr)","formatted":"$16.33T","formula":"TREATY_CUMULATIVE_20YR_WITH_RATCHET + WAR_COSTS_SAVED_PEACE_TRAJECTORY_20YR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nV_{peace,20yr} = Fund_{20yr,ratchet} + Savings_{war,20yr} = \\$3.16T + \\$13.2T = \\$16.3T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Fund_{20yr,ratchet} = Spending_{mil} \\times 1.16 = \\$2.72T \\times 1.16 = \\$3.16T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Savings_{war,20yr} = Cost_{war,total} \\times 1.16 = \\$11.4T \\times 1.16 = \\$13.2T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":16329436000000.002},"PENTAGON_UNACCOUNTED_CLINICAL_TRIAL_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/1-percent-treaty.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[410,808.7477993719046],"conservative":null,"description":"Number of years of clinical trial funding at current government spending levels that the Pentagon's unaccounted funds could have provided","displayName":"Pentagon Unaccounted Funds in Clinical Trial Years","formatted":"546.6666666666666 years","formula":"PENTAGON_UNACCOUNTED_FUNDS / GLOBAL_GOVERNMENT_CLINICAL_TRIALS_SPENDING_ANNUAL","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nYears_{pentagon,trials} \\\\\n= \\frac{Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted}}{Spending_{trials,gov}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$2.46T}{\\$4.5B} \\\\\n= 547\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":546.6666666666666},"PENTAGON_UNACCOUNTED_FALSE_CLAIMS_ANALOG_EXPOSURE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"False Claims Act-style treble-damages exposure on Pentagon unaccounted funds, used as a corporate-defendant audit analogy rather than a literal claim under existing sovereign law.","displayName":"Pentagon Unaccounted Funds False Claims Analog Exposure","formatted":"$7.38T","formula":"PENTAGON_UNACCOUNTED_FUNDS × CORPORATE_ANALOG_FALSE_CLAIMS_TREBLE_MULTIPLIER","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nExposure_{pentagon,FCA} \\\\\n= Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} \\\\\n= \\$2.46T \\times 3 \\\\\n= \\$7.38T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":7380000000000},"PERSONAL_LIFETIME_WEALTH":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[259262.56534705128,12090586.825158022],"conservative":null,"description":"Personal lifetime wealth from life extension valued at standard QALY rate. Simple formula: years of life gained × economic value per healthy year. Uncertainty in LIFE_EXTENSION_YEARS (5-100 year range, median 20) propagates through Monte Carlo.","displayName":"Personal Lifetime Wealth (QALY-Based)","formatted":"$3.00M","formula":"LIFE_EXTENSION_YEARS × STANDARD_ECONOMIC_QALY_VALUE_USD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nWealth_{lifetime} \\\\\n= T_{extend} \\times Value_{QALY} \\\\\n= 20 \\times \\$150K \\\\\n= \\$3M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":3000000},"PER_CAPITA_CHRONIC_DISEASE_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-disease.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[10331.964443756702,14294.067118776316],"conservative":null,"description":"US per capita chronic disease cost","displayName":"US Per Capita Chronic Disease Cost","formatted":"12,238.806 USD/person/year","formula":"US_CHRONIC_DISEASE_SPENDING ÷ US_POPULATION","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{chronic,pc} \\\\\n= \\frac{Spending_{chronic,US}}{Pop_{US}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$4.1T}{335M} \\\\\n= \\$12.2K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person/year","value":12238.805970149253},"PER_CAPITA_MENTAL_HEALTH_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-disease.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[832.2241468926143,1281.764786218911],"conservative":null,"description":"US per capita mental health cost","displayName":"US Per Capita Mental Health Cost","formatted":"1,044.776 USD/person/year","formula":"US_MENTAL_HEALTH_COST ÷ US_POPULATION","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{mental,pc} \\\\\n= \\frac{Cost_{mental,US}}{Pop_{US}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$350B}{335M} \\\\\n= \\$1.04K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person/year","value":1044.7761194029852},"PHARMA_LIVES_SAVED_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[7600712.047497571,18622022.6984807],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual lives saved by pharmaceutical interventions globally. Derived from Lichtenberg (2019) finding of 148.7M life-years saved, divided by assumed 12-year average life extension per beneficiary. Note: Life-years is the primary metric; lives is an approximation for intuitive communication.","displayName":"Annual Lives Saved by Pharmaceuticals","formatted":"12.39M deaths","formula":"PHARMA_LIFE_YEARS_SAVED_ANNUAL ÷ AVG_LIFE_EXTENSION_PER_BENEFICIARY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nLives_{saved,annual} \\\\\n= \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} \\\\\n= \\frac{149M}{12} \\\\\n= 12.4M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"lichtenberg-life-years-saved-2019","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://www.nber.org/papers/w25483","stdError":null,"unit":"deaths","value":12391666.666666666},"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_EFFICIENCY_SCORE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[0.3588263089576748,0.5695487810078039],"conservative":null,"description":"Global Governance Efficiency Score from Political Dysfunction Tax paper. E = Adjusted W_real / W_max, where W_real = GDP - waste, W_max = W_real + opportunity cost. Paper calculates 30-52% efficiency (using $110.9T adjusted / $211.9T maximum). This means civilization operates at roughly half its technological potential.","displayName":"Global Governance Efficiency Score","formatted":"0.5185960162628752 percent","formula":"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_REALIZED_WELFARE_ADJUSTED / POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_THEORETICAL_MAX_WELFARE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nE_{gov} = \\frac{W_{real}}{W_{max}} = \\frac{\\$109T}{\\$210T} = 51.9\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{real} = GDP_{global} - W_{waste} = \\$115T - \\$6.2T = \\$109T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{waste} = W_{total,US} + W_{ff,global} = \\$4.9T + \\$1.3T = \\$6.2T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{total,US} = W_{raw,US} \\times \\delta_{overlap} = \\$4.9T \\times 1 = \\$4.9T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{raw,US} = W_{health} + W_{housing} + W_{military} + W_{regulatory} + W_{tax} + W_{corporate} + W_{tariffs} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$1.2T + \\$1.4T + \\$615B + \\$580B + \\$546B + \\$181B + \\$160B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$4.9T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{max} = W_{real} + O_{total} = \\$109T + \\$101T = \\$210T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } O_{total} = O_{health} + O_{science} + O_{lead} + O_{migration} = \\$34T + \\$4T + \\$6T + \\$57T = \\$101T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"political-dysfunction-tax-paper-2025","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.5185960162628752},"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_OPPORTUNITY_COST_PCT_GDP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/optimocracy.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[0.7245731001101416,1.6630893863202825],"conservative":null,"description":"Global opportunity cost as percentage of global GDP. $101T / $115T = ~88% of current GDP in unrealized potential. This represents the 'buried multipliers' of the global economy.","displayName":"Global Opportunity Cost as % of GDP","formatted":"0.8782608695652174 percent","formula":"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_OPPORTUNITY_COST_TOTAL / GLOBAL_GDP_2025","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nO_{\\%GDP} = \\frac{O_{total}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$101T}{\\$115T} = 87.8\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } O_{total} = O_{health} + O_{science} + O_{lead} + O_{migration} = \\$34T + \\$4T + \\$6T + \\$57T = \\$101T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"political-dysfunction-tax-paper-2025","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.8782608695652174},"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_OPPORTUNITY_COST_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/optimocracy-paper.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[83325906512666.3,191255279426832.47],"conservative":null,"description":"Total global opportunity cost from governance failures: health innovation delays ($34T), underfunded science ($4T), lead poisoning ($6T), migration restrictions ($57T). Sum: $101T annually in unrealized potential.","displayName":"Global Opportunity Cost Total","formatted":"$101.00T","formula":"HEALTH + SCIENCE + LEAD + MIGRATION","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nO_{total} \\\\\n= O_{health} + O_{science} + O_{lead} + O_{migration} \\\\\n= \\$34T + \\$4T + \\$6T + \\$57T \\\\\n= \\$101T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"political-dysfunction-tax-paper-2025","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":101000000000000},"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_REALIZED_WELFARE_ADJUSTED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[107034064152185.42,110252140978326.47],"conservative":null,"description":"Adjusted realized welfare after subtracting measured governance waste from global GDP.","displayName":"Adjusted Realized Welfare","formatted":"$108.80T","formula":"GLOBAL_GDP_2025 - POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_WASTE_TOTAL","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nW_{real} = GDP_{global} - W_{waste} = \\$115T - \\$6.2T = \\$109T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{waste} = W_{total,US} + W_{ff,global} = \\$4.9T + \\$1.3T = \\$6.2T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{total,US} = W_{raw,US} \\times \\delta_{overlap} = \\$4.9T \\times 1 = \\$4.9T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{raw,US} = W_{health} + W_{housing} + W_{military} + W_{regulatory} + W_{tax} + W_{corporate} + W_{tariffs} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$1.2T + \\$1.4T + \\$615B + \\$580B + \\$546B + \\$181B + \\$160B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$4.9T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":108803000000000},"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_THEORETICAL_MAX_WELFARE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[193581830767599.1,298289343579017.9],"conservative":null,"description":"Conservative theoretical maximum welfare under opportunity-cost recapture assumptions.","displayName":"Theoretical Maximum Welfare (Conservative)","formatted":"$209.80T","formula":"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_REALIZED_WELFARE_ADJUSTED + POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_OPPORTUNITY_COST_TOTAL","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nW_{max} = W_{real} + O_{total} = \\$109T + \\$101T = \\$210T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{real} = GDP_{global} - W_{waste} = \\$115T - \\$6.2T = \\$109T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{waste} = W_{total,US} + W_{ff,global} = \\$4.9T + \\$1.3T = \\$6.2T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{total,US} = W_{raw,US} \\times \\delta_{overlap} = \\$4.9T \\times 1 = \\$4.9T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{raw,US} = W_{health} + W_{housing} + W_{military} + W_{regulatory} + W_{tax} + W_{corporate} + W_{tariffs} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$1.2T + \\$1.4T + \\$615B + \\$580B + \\$546B + \\$181B + \\$160B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$4.9T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } O_{total} = O_{health} + O_{science} + O_{lead} + O_{migration} = \\$34T + \\$4T + \\$6T + \\$57T = \\$101T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":209803000000000},"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_WASTE_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[4747859021673.534,7965935847814.583],"conservative":null,"description":"Global waste deduction used in Political Dysfunction Tax efficiency accounting. Combines US governance waste estimate with global explicit fossil-fuel subsidies.","displayName":"Global Waste Total (Efficiency Accounting)","formatted":"$6.20T","formula":"US_GOV_WASTE_TOTAL + POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_FOSSIL_FUEL_SUBSIDIES","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nW_{waste} = W_{total,US} + W_{ff,global} = \\$4.9T + \\$1.3T = \\$6.2T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{total,US} = W_{raw,US} \\times \\delta_{overlap} = \\$4.9T \\times 1 = \\$4.9T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{raw,US} = W_{health} + W_{housing} + W_{military} + W_{regulatory} + W_{tax} + W_{corporate} + W_{tariffs} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$1.2T + \\$1.4T + \\$615B + \\$580B + \\$546B + \\$181B + \\$160B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$4.9T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":6197000000000},"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_TAX_PER_HOUSEHOLD_OF_FOUR_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[42560.51546662096,93652.46708364938],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual household burden for a 4-person household implied by global Political Dysfunction Tax.","displayName":"Political Dysfunction Tax per Household of Four (Annual)","formatted":"50,500 USD/year","formula":"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_TAX_PER_PERSON_ANNUAL × 4","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{pd,hh4} = T_{pd,pc} \\times 4 = \\$12.6K \\times 4 = \\$50.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{pd,pc} = \\frac{O_{total}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$101T}{8B} = \\$12.6K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } O_{total} = O_{health} + O_{science} + O_{lead} + O_{migration} = \\$34T + \\$4T + \\$6T + \\$57T = \\$101T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":50500},"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_TAX_PER_PERSON_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[10640.12886665524,23413.116770912344],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual per-person burden implied by global Political Dysfunction Tax opportunity costs.","displayName":"Political Dysfunction Tax per Person (Annual)","formatted":"12,625 USD/year","formula":"POLITICAL_DYSFUNCTION_GLOBAL_OPPORTUNITY_COST_TOTAL ÷ GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{pd,pc} = \\frac{O_{total}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$101T}{8B} = \\$12.6K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } O_{total} = O_{health} + O_{science} + O_{lead} + O_{migration} = \\$34T + \\$4T + \\$6T + \\$57T = \\$101T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":12625},"POST_WW2_MILITARY_CUT_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Percentage US military spending cut after WW2 (1945-1947, inflation-adjusted: $1,420B to $176B in constant 2024 dollars)","displayName":"Percentage Military Spending Cut After WW2","formatted":"0.876056338028169 percent","formula":"1 - (US_MILITARY_SPENDING_1947 / US_MILITARY_SPENDING_1945_PEAK)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCut_{WW2} \\\\\n= 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} \\\\\n= 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} \\\\\n= 87.6\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.876056338028169},"PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_COST_PER_QALY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[1.7140062688280877,10.176607937442855],"conservative":null,"description":"Cost per QALY for pragmatic platform trials, calculated from RECOVERY trial data. Uses global impact methodology: trial cost divided by total QALYs from downstream adoption. This measures research efficiency (discovery value), not clinical intervention ICER.","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Cost per QALY (RECOVERY)","formatted":"4 USD/QALY","formula":"TRIAL_COST ÷ TOTAL_QALYS_GENERATED","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{pragmatic,QALY} = \\frac{Cost_{RECOVERY}}{QALY_{RECOVERY}} = \\frac{\\$20M}{5M} = \\$4\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } QALY_{RECOVERY} = Lives_{RECOVERY} \\times QALY_{COVID} = 1M \\times 5 = 5M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"recovery-trial-82x-cost-reduction","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://manhattan.institute/article/slow-costly-clinical-trials-drag-down-biomedical-breakthroughs","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/QALY","value":4},"PRICE_OF_APOCALYPSE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/extinction-surplus.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[467990728.52797854,2160777576.9733844],"conservative":null,"description":"The Price of Apocalypse: the annual cost of maintaining enough nuclear warheads to trigger a civilization-ending nuclear winter (~100 warheads, ~5 Tg soot, ~2 billion famine deaths, global food system collapse). Calculated as global nuclear spending divided by the nuclear winter overkill factor.","displayName":"Price of Apocalypse (Minimum Viable Apocalypse)","formatted":"$751.57M","formula":"GLOBAL_NUCLEAR_WEAPONS_SPENDING / NUCLEAR_WINTER_OVERKILL_FACTOR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nP_{apocalypse} = \\frac{S_{nuke}}{Overkill_{winter}} = \\frac{\\$92B}{122} = \\$752M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Overkill_{winter} = \\frac{W_{global}}{W_{winter}} = \\frac{12{,}200}{100} = 122\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":751572583.9392207},"PRIZE_POOL_ANNUAL_RETURN":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.09248159353230057,0.22203076006330577],"conservative":null,"description":"Canonical annual return used for PRIZE pool growth. Venture gross return + scale compression + crowd allocation alpha + home bias elimination. This is the structural pool return before contingent macro feedback loops.","displayName":"PRIZE Pool Annual Return","formatted":"0.15800000000000003 percent","formula":"VENTURE_GROSS_RETURN + SCALE_COMPRESSION_FACTOR + WISHOCRATIC_CROWD_ALPHA + HOME_BIAS_ALPHA","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nr_{pool} \\\\\n= r_{VC,gross} + \\Delta r_{scale} + \\alpha_{crowd} \\\\\n+ \\alpha_{home} \\\\\n= 17\\% + -2.5\\% + 0.5\\% + 0.8\\% \\\\\n= 15.8\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.15800000000000003},"PRIZE_POOL_HORIZON_MULTIPLE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3.7688766983872033,20.24100475122331],"conservative":null,"description":"Compound multiple for PRIZE pool growth over the resolution horizon (tied to the destructive economy 50% threshold year).","displayName":"PRIZE Pool Horizon Multiple","formatted":"9.028765862436396 x","formula":"(1 + PRIZE_POOL_ANNUAL_RETURN) ^ (DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_50PCT_YEAR - DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_BASE_YEAR)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nM_{pool} = (1 + r_{pool}) ^{Y_{50\\%} - Y_0}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{pool} = r_{VC,gross} + \\Delta r_{scale} + \\alpha_{crowd} + \\alpha_{home} = 17\\% + -2.5\\% + 0.5\\% + 0.8\\% = 15.8\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{50\\%} = Y_0 + \\frac{\\ln\\left(0.50 / \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_PCT\\_GDP}\\right)}{\\ln\\left(1 + \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_GROWTH} - \\text{GDP\\_GROWTH}\\right)}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{destruct:GDP} = \\frac{Cost_{destruct}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$13.2T}{\\$115T} = 11.5\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{destruct} = Spending_{mil} + Cost_{cyber} = \\$2.72T + \\$10.5T = \\$13.2T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":9.028765862436396},"PRIZE_POOL_RETIREMENT_EQUIVALENT_PRINCIPAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1299465020398.1055,4215882057265.197],"conservative":null,"description":"Secondary PRIZE seed benchmark: initial principal required so that the pool can make two referred votes retirement-equivalent on success at the majority-of-humanity coordination target. This is a stronger-incentive visible-pool benchmark, not the minimum capital required to make majority-of-humanity participation credible.","displayName":"PRIZE Pool Retirement-Equivalent Principal","formatted":"$2.28T","formula":"GLOBAL_REGISTERED_VOTERS × RETIREMENT_EQUIVALENT_CLAIM_VALUE_TARGET / PRIZE_POOL_HORIZON_MULTIPLE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nP_{retire-eq} = N_{voters,global} \\times \\frac{V_{claim,target}}{M_{pool}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{claim,target} = V_{2claims,target} \\times 0.5 = \\$9.98K \\times 0.5 = \\$4.99K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{2claims,target} = S_{annual,pc} \\times M_{retire} = \\$3.88K \\times 2.57 = \\$9.98K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } S_{annual,pc} = \\frac{S_{annual}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$31.1T}{8B} = \\$3.88K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } S_{annual} = s_{global} \\times GDP_{global} = 27\\% \\times \\$115T = \\$31.1T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } M_{retire} = (1 + r_{retire}) ^{Y_{50\\%} - Y_0}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{50\\%} = Y_0 + \\frac{\\ln\\left(0.50 / \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_PCT\\_GDP}\\right)}{\\ln\\left(1 + \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_GROWTH} - \\text{GDP\\_GROWTH}\\right)}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{destruct:GDP} = \\frac{Cost_{destruct}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$13.2T}{\\$115T} = 11.5\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{destruct} = Spending_{mil} + Cost_{cyber} = \\$2.72T + \\$10.5T = \\$13.2T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } M_{pool} = (1 + r_{pool}) ^{Y_{50\\%} - Y_0}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{pool} = r_{VC,gross} + \\Delta r_{scale} + \\alpha_{crowd} + \\alpha_{home} = 17\\% + -2.5\\% + 0.5\\% + 0.8\\% = 15.8\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":2281981017443.791},"PRIZE_POOL_SIZE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-protocol-v1.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1149507393008.097,231810059148144.4],"conservative":null,"description":"Terminal PRIZE pool size: global investable assets × participation rate × compound multiple over the resolution horizon.","displayName":"PRIZE Pool Size","formatted":"$27.54T","formula":"GLOBAL_INVESTABLE_ASSETS × PRIZE_POOL_PARTICIPATION_RATE × PRIZE_POOL_HORIZON_MULTIPLE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nPool = Assets_{invest} \\times R_{pool} \\times M_{pool} = \\$305T \\times 1\\% \\times 9.03 = \\$27.5T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } M_{pool} = (1 + r_{pool}) ^{Y_{50\\%} - Y_0}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{pool} = r_{VC,gross} + \\Delta r_{scale} + \\alpha_{crowd} + \\alpha_{home} = 17\\% + -2.5\\% + 0.5\\% + 0.8\\% = 15.8\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{50\\%} = Y_0 + \\frac{\\ln\\left(0.50 / \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_PCT\\_GDP}\\right)}{\\ln\\left(1 + \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_GROWTH} - \\text{GDP\\_GROWTH}\\right)}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{destruct:GDP} = \\frac{Cost_{destruct}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$13.2T}{\\$115T} = 11.5\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{destruct} = Spending_{mil} + Cost_{cyber} = \\$2.72T + \\$10.5T = \\$13.2T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":27537735880431.008},"RECOVERY_TRIAL_COST_REDUCTION_FACTOR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[50,94.1090375244722],"conservative":null,"description":"Cost reduction factor demonstrated by RECOVERY trial (traditional Phase 3 cost / RECOVERY cost per patient)","displayName":"RECOVERY Trial Cost Reduction Factor","formatted":"82 multiplier","formula":"TRADITIONAL_PHASE3_COST / RECOVERY_COST","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{RECOVERY} \\\\\n= \\frac{Cost_{P3,pt}}{Cost_{RECOVERY,pt}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$41K}{\\$500} \\\\\n= 82\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"recovery-trial-82x-cost-reduction","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://manhattan.institute/article/slow-costly-clinical-trials-drag-down-biomedical-breakthroughs","stdError":null,"unit":"multiplier","value":82},"RECOVERY_TRIAL_TOTAL_QALYS_GENERATED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[1508999.5506800222,14260849.454072395],"conservative":null,"description":"Total QALYs generated by RECOVERY trial's discoveries (lives saved × QALYs per life). Uses global impact methodology: counts all downstream health gains from the discovery.","displayName":"RECOVERY Trial Total QALYs Generated","formatted":"5.00M QALYs","formula":"LIVES_SAVED × QALYS_PER_DEATH_AVERTED","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nQALY_{RECOVERY} \\\\\n= Lives_{RECOVERY} \\times QALY_{COVID} \\\\\n= 1M \\times 5 \\\\\n= 5M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"QALYs","value":5000000},"RETIREMENT_EQUIVALENT_2_CLAIMS_TARGET_PAYOUT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[7697.9608280533,12743.008596468822],"conservative":null,"description":"Target success-side payout for two referred votes: what one representative annual savings contribution would become in a conventional retirement account by PRIZE resolution.","displayName":"Retirement-Equivalent 2-Claims Target Payout","formatted":"$9.98K","formula":"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_SAVINGS_PER_CAPITA × CONVENTIONAL_RETIREMENT_HORIZON_MULTIPLE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nV_{2claims,target} = S_{annual,pc} \\times M_{retire} = \\$3.88K \\times 2.57 = \\$9.98K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } S_{annual,pc} = \\frac{S_{annual}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$31.1T}{8B} = \\$3.88K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } S_{annual} = s_{global} \\times GDP_{global} = 27\\% \\times \\$115T = \\$31.1T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } M_{retire} = (1 + r_{retire}) ^{Y_{50\\%} - Y_0}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{50\\%} = Y_0 + \\frac{\\ln\\left(0.50 / \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_PCT\\_GDP}\\right)}{\\ln\\left(1 + \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_GROWTH} - \\text{GDP\\_GROWTH}\\right)}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{destruct:GDP} = \\frac{Cost_{destruct}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$13.2T}{\\$115T} = 11.5\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{destruct} = Spending_{mil} + Cost_{cyber} = \\$2.72T + \\$10.5T = \\$13.2T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":9981.95790672404},"RETIREMENT_EQUIVALENT_CLAIM_VALUE_TARGET":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3848.98041402665,6371.504298234411],"conservative":null,"description":"Target value of one referred-voter claim when two claims are meant to match the conventional-retirement future value of one representative annual savings contribution.","displayName":"Retirement-Equivalent Claim Value Target","formatted":"$4.99K","formula":"RETIREMENT_EQUIVALENT_2_CLAIMS_TARGET_PAYOUT / 2","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nV_{claim,target} = V_{2claims,target} \\times 0.5 = \\$9.98K \\times 0.5 = \\$4.99K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{2claims,target} = S_{annual,pc} \\times M_{retire} = \\$3.88K \\times 2.57 = \\$9.98K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } S_{annual,pc} = \\frac{S_{annual}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$31.1T}{8B} = \\$3.88K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } S_{annual} = s_{global} \\times GDP_{global} = 27\\% \\times \\$115T = \\$31.1T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } M_{retire} = (1 + r_{retire}) ^{Y_{50\\%} - Y_0}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{50\\%} = Y_0 + \\frac{\\ln\\left(0.50 / \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_PCT\\_GDP}\\right)}{\\ln\\left(1 + \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_GROWTH} - \\text{GDP\\_GROWTH}\\right)}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{destruct:GDP} = \\frac{Cost_{destruct}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$13.2T}{\\$115T} = 11.5\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{destruct} = Spending_{mil} + Cost_{cyber} = \\$2.72T + \\$10.5T = \\$13.2T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":4990.97895336202},"SHARING_BREAKEVEN_ONE_IN_TREATY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/recruitment-and-propaganda-plan.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[17213204.074392494,167438841.12677416],"conservative":null,"description":"Breakeven probability expressed as '1 in N'. Forwarding has positive expected value if you believe there is at least a 1-in-N chance the plan works. For context, lightning strike odds are ~1 in 1.2 million.","displayName":"Sharing Breakeven (1 in N)","formatted":"58.10M ratio","formula":"1 / SHARING_BREAKEVEN_PROBABILITY_TREATY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{breakeven} = P_{breakeven} = 0 = 58.1M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } P_{breakeven} = \\frac{C_{share}}{\\Delta Y_{lifetime,treaty}} = \\frac{\\$0.0599}{\\$3.48M} = 0\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{share} = t_{share} \\times \\bar{w}_{hour} \\times 0.0167 = 0.5 \\times \\$7.19 \\times 0.0167 = \\$0.0599\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{w}_{hour} = \\frac{\\bar{y}_{0}}{H_{work}} = \\frac{\\$14.4K}{2{,}000} = \\$7.19\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta Y_{lifetime,treaty} = Y_{cum,treaty} - Y_{cum,earth} = \\$4.58M - \\$1.1M = \\$3.48M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,treaty} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,treaty})((1+g_{pc,treaty})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,treaty}} + \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$919T}{9.2B} = \\$99.9K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease} + \\left(\\frac{Loss_{lag}}{GDP_{global}}\\right))^{\\frac{1}{20}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times (3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 1, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 4 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 2, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 5 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 5, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 8 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 10, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL})) / N_{untreated}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{lag} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times (LE_{global} - Age_{death,delay}) \\times Value_{QALY} = 102M \\times (79 - 62) \\times \\$150K = \\$259T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{remaining} = LE_{global} - Age_{median} = 79 - 30.5 = 48.5\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,earth} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":58101156.61614439},"SHARING_BREAKEVEN_PROBABILITY_TREATY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/recruitment-and-propaganda-plan.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[5.972330319912449e-9,5.809493690216798e-8],"conservative":null,"description":"Minimum probability that the plan works for forwarding to have positive expected value. EV > 0 when P(works) > cost_of_sharing / gain_if_works. Below this probability, not forwarding is rational. Above it, forwarding dominates. For context, the odds of being struck by lightning are ~1 in 1.2 million.","displayName":"Sharing Breakeven Probability","formatted":"1.721136132636184e-8 probability","formula":"SHARING_OPPORTUNITY_COST / TREATY_TRAJECTORY_LIFETIME_INCOME_GAIN_PER_CAPITA","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nP_{breakeven} = \\frac{C_{share}}{\\Delta Y_{lifetime,treaty}} = \\frac{\\$0.0599}{\\$3.48M} = 0\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{share} = t_{share} \\times \\bar{w}_{hour} \\times 0.0167 = 0.5 \\times \\$7.19 \\times 0.0167 = \\$0.0599\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{w}_{hour} = \\frac{\\bar{y}_{0}}{H_{work}} = \\frac{\\$14.4K}{2{,}000} = \\$7.19\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta Y_{lifetime,treaty} = Y_{cum,treaty} - Y_{cum,earth} = \\$4.58M - \\$1.1M = \\$3.48M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,treaty} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,treaty})((1+g_{pc,treaty})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,treaty}} + \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$919T}{9.2B} = \\$99.9K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease} + \\left(\\frac{Loss_{lag}}{GDP_{global}}\\right))^{\\frac{1}{20}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times (3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 1, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 4 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 2, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 5 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 5, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 8 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 10, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL})) / N_{untreated}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{lag} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times (LE_{global} - Age_{death,delay}) \\times Value_{QALY} = 102M \\times (79 - 62) \\times \\$150K = \\$259T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{remaining} = LE_{global} - Age_{median} = 79 - 30.5 = 48.5\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,earth} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"probability","value":1.721136132636184e-8},"SHARING_OPPORTUNITY_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/recruitment-and-propaganda-plan.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.058658695085735096,0.061193479936192736],"conservative":null,"description":"Dollar cost of 30 seconds at global average hourly income. The maximum downside of forwarding the message if the plan is impossible.","displayName":"Sharing Opportunity Cost","formatted":"$0.06","formula":"(SHARING_TIME_MINUTES / 60) * GLOBAL_AVG_HOURLY_INCOME","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nC_{share} = t_{share} \\times \\bar{w}_{hour} \\times 0.0167 = 0.5 \\times \\$7.19 \\times 0.0167 = \\$0.0599\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{w}_{hour} = \\frac{\\bar{y}_{0}}{H_{work}} = \\frac{\\$14.4K}{2{,}000} = \\$7.19\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":0.059895833333333336},"SHARING_UPSIDE_DOWNSIDE_RATIO_TREATY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/recruitment-and-propaganda-plan.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[17213204.074392494,167438841.12677416],"conservative":null,"description":"Raw ratio of upside (lifetime income gain if plan works) to downside (cost of sharing if plan is impossible). Not expected value; see SHARING_BREAKEVEN_PROBABILITY_TREATY for the probability threshold that makes forwarding rational.","displayName":"Sharing Upside/Downside Ratio","formatted":"58.10M x","formula":"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_LIFETIME_INCOME_GAIN_PER_CAPITA / SHARING_OPPORTUNITY_COST","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{upside:downside} = \\frac{\\Delta Y_{lifetime,treaty}}{C_{share}} = \\frac{\\$3.48M}{\\$0.0599} = 58.1M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta Y_{lifetime,treaty} = Y_{cum,treaty} - Y_{cum,earth} = \\$4.58M - \\$1.1M = \\$3.48M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,treaty} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,treaty})((1+g_{pc,treaty})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,treaty}} + \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$919T}{9.2B} = \\$99.9K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease} + \\left(\\frac{Loss_{lag}}{GDP_{global}}\\right))^{\\frac{1}{20}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times (3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 1, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 4 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 2, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 5 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 5, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 8 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 10, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL})) / N_{untreated}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{lag} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times (LE_{global} - Age_{death,delay}) \\times Value_{QALY} = 102M \\times (79 - 62) \\times \\$150K = \\$259T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{remaining} = LE_{global} - Age_{median} = 79 - 30.5 = 48.5\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,earth} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{share} = t_{share} \\times \\bar{w}_{hour} \\times 0.0167 = 0.5 \\times \\$7.19 \\times 0.0167 = \\$0.0599\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{w}_{hour} = \\frac{\\bar{y}_{0}}{H_{work}} = \\frac{\\$14.4K}{2{,}000} = \\$7.19\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":58101156.61614439},"STATUS_QUO_AVG_YEARS_TO_FIRST_TREATMENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[161.86334161810848,356.25],"conservative":null,"description":"Average years until first treatment discovered for a typical disease under current system. At current discovery rates, the average disease waits half the total exploration time (~443/2 = ~222 years).","displayName":"Status Quo Average Years to First Treatment","formatted":"221.66666666666666 years","formula":"STATUS_QUO_QUEUE_CLEARANCE_YEARS ÷ 2","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"status-quo-cure-timeline-estimate","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":221.66666666666666},"STATUS_QUO_QUEUE_CLEARANCE_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[323.72668323621696,712.5],"conservative":null,"description":"Years to explore the entire therapeutic search space under current system. At current discovery rate of ~15 diseases/year getting first treatments, finding treatments for all ~6,650 untreated diseases would take ~443 years.","displayName":"Status Quo Therapeutic Space Exploration Time","formatted":"443.3333333333333 years","formula":"DISEASES_WITHOUT_EFFECTIVE_TREATMENT ÷ NEW_DISEASE_FIRST_TREATMENTS_PER_YEAR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"status-quo-cure-timeline-estimate","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":443.3333333333333},"THALIDOMIDE_DALYS_PER_EVENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[24807.44255593479,67058.35817322345],"conservative":null,"description":"Total DALYs per US-scale thalidomide event (YLL + YLD)","displayName":"Thalidomide DALYs Per Event","formatted":"41,760 DALYs","formula":"YLL + YLD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDALY_{thal} = YLD_{thal} + YLL_{thal} = 13{,}000 + 28{,}800 = 41{,}800\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLD_{thal} = DW_{thal} \\times N_{thal,survive} \\times LE_{thal} = 0.4 \\times 540 \\times 60 = 13{,}000\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{thal,survive} = N_{thal,US,prevent} \\times (1 - Rate_{thal,mort}) = 900 \\times (1 - 40\\%) = 540\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{thal,US,prevent} = N_{thal,global} \\times Pct_{US,1960} = 15{,}000 \\times 6\\% = 900\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLL_{thal} = Deaths_{thal} \\times 80 = 360 \\times 80 = 28{,}800\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{thal} = Rate_{thal,mort} \\times N_{thal,US,prevent} = 40\\% \\times 900 = 360\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"DALYs","value":41760},"THALIDOMIDE_DEATHS_PER_EVENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[223.28058271575128,556.0046769541195],"conservative":null,"description":"Deaths per US-scale thalidomide event","displayName":"Thalidomide Deaths Per Event","formatted":"360 deaths","formula":"US_CASES × MORTALITY_RATE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDeaths_{thal} = Rate_{thal,mort} \\times N_{thal,US,prevent} = 40\\% \\times 900 = 360\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{thal,US,prevent} = N_{thal,global} \\times Pct_{US,1960} = 15{,}000 \\times 6\\% = 900\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"deaths","value":360},"THALIDOMIDE_SURVIVORS_PER_EVENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[399.01009168372826,698.4254739644932],"conservative":null,"description":"Survivors per US-scale thalidomide event","displayName":"Thalidomide Survivors Per Event","formatted":"540 cases","formula":"US_CASES × (1 - MORTALITY_RATE)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{thal,survive} = N_{thal,US,prevent} \\times (1 - Rate_{thal,mort}) = 900 \\times (1 - 40\\%) = 540\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{thal,US,prevent} = N_{thal,global} \\times Pct_{US,1960} = 15{,}000 \\times 6\\% = 900\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"cases","value":540},"THALIDOMIDE_US_CASES_PREVENTED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[622.2906743994796,1254.4301509186128],"conservative":null,"description":"Estimated US thalidomide cases prevented by FDA rejection","displayName":"Thalidomide US Cases Prevented","formatted":"900 cases","formula":"WORLDWIDE_CASES × US_POPULATION_SHARE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{thal,US,prevent} \\\\\n= N_{thal,global} \\times Pct_{US,1960} \\\\\n= 15{,}000 \\times 6\\% \\\\\n= 900\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"cases","value":900},"THALIDOMIDE_YLD_PER_EVENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[6944.995938674689,22577.98401689388],"conservative":null,"description":"Years Lived with Disability per thalidomide event","displayName":"Thalidomide YLD Per Event","formatted":"12,960 years","formula":"SURVIVORS × LIFESPAN × DISABILITY_WEIGHT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nYLD_{thal} = DW_{thal} \\times N_{thal,survive} \\times LE_{thal} = 0.4 \\times 540 \\times 60 = 13{,}000\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{thal,survive} = N_{thal,US,prevent} \\times (1 - Rate_{thal,mort}) = 900 \\times (1 - 40\\%) = 540\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{thal,US,prevent} = N_{thal,global} \\times Pct_{US,1960} = 15{,}000 \\times 6\\% = 900\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":12960},"THALIDOMIDE_YLL_PER_EVENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[17862.446617260102,44480.37415632956],"conservative":null,"description":"Years of Life Lost per thalidomide event (infant deaths)","displayName":"Thalidomide YLL Per Event","formatted":"28,800 years","formula":"DEATHS × 80 years","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nYLL_{thal} = Deaths_{thal} \\times 80 = 360 \\times 80 = 28{,}800\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{thal} = Rate_{thal,mort} \\times N_{thal,US,prevent} = 40\\% \\times 900 = 360\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{thal,US,prevent} = N_{thal,global} \\times Pct_{US,1960} = 15{,}000 \\times 6\\% = 900\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":28800},"THREE_POINT_FIVE_PERCENT_OF_GLOBAL_POPULATION":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[84175724.43733144,638719402.961784],"conservative":null,"description":"Headcount implied by the 3.5% activism threshold applied to global population. This is a historical tipping-point benchmark, not the public majority-of-humanity coordination target. Wide CI reflects uncertainty in applying Chenoweth's national threshold to global treaty adoption.","displayName":"3.5% Activism Benchmark","formatted":"280.00M of people","formula":"GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024 × GLOBAL_POPULATION_ACTIVISM_THRESHOLD_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{activism} \\\\\n= Pop_{global} \\times Threshold_{activism} \\\\\n= 8B \\times 3.5\\% \\\\\n= 280M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"of people","value":280000000},"TOTAL_RESEARCH_FUNDING_WITH_TREATY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[83831460414.41083,106571628414.21606],"conservative":null,"description":"Total global research funding (baseline + 1% treaty funding)","displayName":"Total Global Research Funding (Baseline + 1% treaty Funding)","formatted":"$94.70B","formula":"GLOBAL_MED_RESEARCH_SPENDING + TREATY_ANNUAL_FUNDING","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nFunding_{RD,total} = Spending_{RD} + Funding_{treaty} = \\$67.5B + \\$27.2B = \\$94.7B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":94700000000},"TOTAL_TESTABLE_THERAPEUTIC_COMBINATIONS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[38371154.091099404,66404618.841941014],"conservative":null,"description":"Total testable therapeutic combinations (known safe compounds + emerging modalities)","displayName":"Total Testable Therapeutic Space","formatted":"51.50M combinations","formula":"KNOWN_SAFE + EMERGING_MODALITIES","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{testable} = N_{combos} + N_{emerging} = 9.5M + 42M = 51.5M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{combos} = N_{safe} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 9{,}500 \\times 1{,}000 = 9.5M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{emerging} = Combos_{gene} + Combos_{mRNA} + Combos_{epi} + Combos_{cell} = 20M + 20M + 1.5M + 500{,}000 = 42M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{gene} = N_{genes} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 20{,}000 \\times 1{,}000 = 20M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{mRNA} = N_{genes} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 20{,}000 \\times 1{,}000 = 20M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{epi} = N_{epi} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 1{,}500 \\times 1{,}000 = 1.5M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Combos_{cell} = N_{cell} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 500 \\times 1{,}000 = 500{,}000\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"combinations","value":51500000},"TREATY_ANNUAL_FUNDING":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Annual funding from 1% of global military spending redirected to DIH","displayName":"Annual Funding from 1% of Global Military Spending Redirected to DIH","formatted":"27.20B USD/year","formula":"MILITARY_SPENDING × 1%","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nFunding_{treaty} \\\\\n= Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} \\\\\n= \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% \\\\\n= \\$27.2B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":27200000000},"TREATY_BENEFIT_MULTIPLIER_VS_VACCINES":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[9.000515703897946,16.119462239312668],"conservative":null,"description":"Treaty system benefit multiplier vs childhood vaccination programs","displayName":"Treaty System Benefit Multiplier vs Childhood Vaccination Programs","formatted":"11.480765853658538 x","formula":"TREATY_CONSERVATIVE_BENEFIT ÷ CHILDHOOD_VACCINATION_BENEFIT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{treaty:vax} = \\frac{Benefit_{peace+RD}}{Benefit_{vax,ann}} = \\frac{\\$172B}{\\$15B} = 11.5\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace+RD} = Benefit_{peace,soc} + Benefit_{RD,ann} = \\$114B + \\$58.6B = \\$172B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{RD,ann} = Spending_{trials} \\times Reduce_{pct} = \\$60B \\times 97.7\\% = \\$58.6B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Reduce_{pct} = 1 - \\frac{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}}{Cost_{P3,pt}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$929}{\\$41K} = 97.7\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":11.480765853658538},"TREATY_CAMPAIGN_ANNUAL_COST_AMORTIZED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[158055009.40710998,378552447.8505959],"conservative":null,"description":"Amortized annual campaign cost (total cost ÷ campaign duration)","displayName":"Amortized Annual Treaty Campaign Cost","formatted":"250.00M USD/year","formula":"TOTAL_COST ÷ DURATION","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{camp,amort} = \\frac{Cost_{campaign}}{T_{campaign}} = \\frac{\\$1B}{4} = \\$250M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{campaign} = Budget_{viral,base} + Budget_{lobby,treaty} + Budget_{reserve} = \\$250M + \\$650M + \\$100M = \\$1B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":250000000},"TREATY_CAMPAIGN_TOTAL_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[632220037.6284399,1514209791.4023836],"conservative":null,"description":"Total treaty campaign cost (100% VICTORY Incentive Alignment Bonds)","displayName":"Total 1% Treaty Campaign Cost","formatted":"$1.00B","formula":"REFERENDUM + LOBBYING + RESERVE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{campaign} \\\\\n= Budget_{viral,base} + Budget_{lobby,treaty} \\\\\n+ Budget_{reserve} \\\\\n= \\$250M + \\$650M + \\$100M \\\\\n= \\$1B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1000000000},"TREATY_COST_PER_DALY_TRIAL_CAPACITY_PLUS_EFFICACY_LAG":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.0007148419212011979,0.004117479414703678],"conservative":null,"description":"Cost per DALY averted from elimination of efficacy lag plus earlier treatment discovery from increased trial throughput. Only counts campaign cost; ignores economic benefits from funding and R&D savings.","displayName":"Cost per DALY Averted (Elimination of Efficacy Lag Plus Earlier Treatment Discovery from Increased Trial Throughput)","formatted":"0.001769148505584477 USD/DALY","formula":"CAMPAIGN_COST ÷ DALYS_TIMELINE_SHIFT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{treaty,DALY} = \\frac{Cost_{campaign}}{DALYs_{max}} = \\frac{\\$1B}{565B} = \\$0.00177\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{campaign} = Budget_{viral,base} + Budget_{lobby,treaty} + Budget_{reserve} = \\$250M + \\$650M + \\$100M = \\$1B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/DALY","value":0.001769148505584477},"TREATY_CUMULATIVE_20YR_WITH_RATCHET":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative treaty funding over 20 years with IAB ratchet expansion following roadmap timeline. Expansion driven by bondholder lobbying incentives (10% of treaty inflows).","displayName":"Cumulative Treaty Funding over 20 Years with IAB Ratchet Expansion","formatted":"$3.16T","formula":"GLOBAL_MILITARY × (0.01×3 + 0.02×4 + 0.05×5 + 0.10×8)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nFund_{20yr,ratchet} \\\\\n= Spending_{mil} \\times 1.16 \\\\\n= \\$2.72T \\times 1.16 \\\\\n= \\$3.16T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":3155200000000.0005},"TREATY_CYBERCRIME_RECOVERY_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Annual GDP growth bonus by year 15 from reducing cybercrime drag as the treaty weakens the destructive economy feedback loop.","displayName":"Treaty Cybercrime Recovery GDP Growth Bonus (Year 15)","formatted":"0.4%","formula":"(GLOBAL_CYBERCRIME_COST_ANNUAL_2025 ÷ GLOBAL_GDP_2025) × TREATY_EFFECTIVE_REALLOCATION_SHARE_YEAR_15 × PEACE_DIVIDEND_CONFLICT_ELASTICITY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\ng_{cyber,treaty,15} \\\\\n= \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.004017391304347827},"TREATY_CYBERCRIME_RECOVERY_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Annual GDP growth bonus by year 20 from reducing cybercrime drag as the treaty weakens the destructive economy feedback loop.","displayName":"Treaty Cybercrime Recovery GDP Growth Bonus (Year 20)","formatted":"0.5%","formula":"(GLOBAL_CYBERCRIME_COST_ANNUAL_2025 ÷ GLOBAL_GDP_2025) × TREATY_EFFECTIVE_REALLOCATION_SHARE_YEAR_20 × PEACE_DIVIDEND_CONFLICT_ELASTICITY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\ng_{cyber,treaty,20} \\\\\n= \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.005295652173913044},"TREATY_DISEASE_CURE_FRACTION_15YR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.8559731772138969,1],"conservative":null,"description":"Treaty disease-cure fraction over 15 years under the optimistic treaty take-hold path. The initial 1% treaty expands to 2%, then 5%, then 10%, with trial-throughput scaling linearly with treaty funding until it hits the physical participant ceiling. Cumulative throughput is capped by the physical participant ceiling.","displayName":"Treaty Disease Cure Fraction (15yr, Take-Hold Path)","formatted":"100.0%","formula":"min(1.0, NEW_DISEASE_FIRST_TREATMENTS_PER_YEAR × (3×min(TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER×1, MAX_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER_PHYSICAL) + 4×min(TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER×2, MAX_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER_PHYSICAL) + 5×min(TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER×5, MAX_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER_PHYSICAL) + 3×min(TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER×10, MAX_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER_PHYSICAL)) ÷ DISEASES_WITHOUT_EFFECTIVE_TREATMENT)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nf_{cure,15,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times (3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 1, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 4 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 2, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 5 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 5, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 10, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL})) / N_{untreated}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":1},"TREATY_DISEASE_CURE_FRACTION_20YR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Treaty disease-cure fraction over 20 years under the optimistic treaty take-hold path. The initial 1% treaty expands to 2%, then 5%, then 10%, with trial-throughput scaling linearly with treaty funding until it hits the physical participant ceiling. Cumulative throughput is capped by the physical participant ceiling.","displayName":"Treaty Disease Cure Fraction (20yr, Take-Hold Path)","formatted":"100.0%","formula":"min(1.0, NEW_DISEASE_FIRST_TREATMENTS_PER_YEAR × (3×min(TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER×1, MAX_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER_PHYSICAL) + 4×min(TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER×2, MAX_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER_PHYSICAL) + 5×min(TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER×5, MAX_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER_PHYSICAL) + 8×min(TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER×10, MAX_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER_PHYSICAL)) ÷ DISEASES_WITHOUT_EFFECTIVE_TREATMENT)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nf_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times (3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 1, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 4 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 2, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 5 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 5, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 8 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 10, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL})) / N_{untreated}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":1},"TREATY_EXPECTED_COST_PER_DALY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[0.02915716713561018,3.1963589336042664],"conservative":null,"description":"Expected cost per DALY accounting for political success probability uncertainty. Monte Carlo samples from beta(0.1%, 10%) distribution. At the conservative 1% estimate, this is still more cost-effective than bed nets ($89.0/DALY).","displayName":"Expected Cost per DALY (Risk-Adjusted)","formatted":"0.1769148505584477 USD/DALY","formula":"CONDITIONAL_COST_PER_DALY ÷ POLITICAL_SUCCESS_PROBABILITY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nE[Cost_{DALY}] = \\frac{Cost_{treaty,DALY}}{P_{success}} = \\frac{\\$0.00177}{1\\%} = \\$0.177\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{treaty,DALY} = \\frac{Cost_{campaign}}{DALYs_{max}} = \\frac{\\$1B}{565B} = \\$0.00177\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{campaign} = Budget_{viral,base} + Budget_{lobby,treaty} + Budget_{reserve} = \\$250M + \\$650M + \\$100M = \\$1B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/DALY","value":0.1769148505584477},"TREATY_EXPECTED_ROI_TRIAL_CAPACITY_PLUS_EFFICACY_LAG":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[58025.56698560537,4758713.853471391],"conservative":null,"description":"Expected ROI for 1% treaty accounting for political success probability uncertainty. Monte Carlo samples POLITICAL_SUCCESS_PROBABILITY from beta(0.1%, 10%) distribution to generate full expected value distribution. Central value uses 1% probability.","displayName":"Expected Treaty ROI (Risk-Adjusted)","formatted":"847,865.51 ratio","formula":"TREATY_ROI_TRIAL_CAPACITY_PLUS_EFFICACY_LAG × POLITICAL_SUCCESS_PROBABILITY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nE[ROI_{max}] = ROI_{max} \\times P_{success} = 84.8M \\times 1\\% = 848{,}000\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } ROI_{max} = \\frac{Value_{max}}{Cost_{campaign}} = \\frac{\\$84800T}{\\$1B} = 84.8M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Value_{max} = DALYs_{max} \\times Value_{QALY} = 565B \\times \\$150K = \\$84800T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{campaign} = Budget_{viral,base} + Budget_{lobby,treaty} + Budget_{reserve} = \\$250M + \\$650M + \\$100M = \\$1B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"calculated","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":847865.5100264985},"TREATY_EXPECTED_VS_BED_NETS_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[29.962404209785106,2996.98764403077],"conservative":null,"description":"Expected value multiplier vs bed nets (accounts for political uncertainty at 1% success rate)","displayName":"Expected Cost-Effectiveness vs Bed Nets Multiplier","formatted":"503.06686928238906 x","formula":"BED_NETS_COST_PER_DALY ÷ TREATY_EXPECTED_COST_PER_DALY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nE[k_{nets}] = \\frac{Cost_{nets}}{E[Cost_{DALY}]} = \\frac{\\$89}{\\$0.177} = 503\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } E[Cost_{DALY}] = \\frac{Cost_{treaty,DALY}}{P_{success}} = \\frac{\\$0.00177}{1\\%} = \\$0.177\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{treaty,DALY} = \\frac{Cost_{campaign}}{DALYs_{max}} = \\frac{\\$1B}{565B} = \\$0.00177\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{campaign} = Budget_{viral,base} + Budget_{lobby,treaty} + Budget_{reserve} = \\$250M + \\$650M + \\$100M = \\$1B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":503.06686928238906},"TREATY_HALE_GAIN_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[15.640740952374312,29.994843113599156],"conservative":null,"description":"HALE improvement at year 15 under Treaty Trajectory. It includes both closing the current HALE gap from disease/disability and a conservative partial realization of longer-run longevity gains.","displayName":"Treaty HALE Gain at Year 15","formatted":"21.700000000000003 years","formula":"TREATY_DISEASE_CURE_FRACTION_15YR × GLOBAL_HALE_GAP + TREATY_LONGEVITY_HALE_GAIN_YEAR_15","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\Delta HALE_{treaty,15} = f_{cure,15,treaty} \\times \\Delta_{HALE} + \\Delta HALE_{treaty,longevity,15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times (3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 1, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 4 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 2, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 5 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 5, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 10, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL})) / N_{untreated}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{treaty,longevity,15} = T_{extend} \\times \\rho_{HALE,15} \\times f_{cure,15,treaty} = 20 \\times 30\\% \\times 100\\% = 6\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":21.700000000000003},"TREATY_HALE_VALUE_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1564074.0952374313,5911108.609307034],"conservative":null,"description":"Economic value of Treaty Trajectory HALE gains at year 15 using the standard QALY value.","displayName":"Treaty HALE Value Per Capita","formatted":"3.26M USD/person","formula":"TREATY_HALE_GAIN_YEAR_15 × STANDARD_ECONOMIC_QALY_VALUE_USD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nValue_{HALE,treaty} = \\Delta HALE_{treaty,15} \\times Value_{QALY} = 21.7 \\times \\$150K = \\$3.26M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{treaty,15} = f_{cure,15,treaty} \\times \\Delta_{HALE} + \\Delta HALE_{treaty,longevity,15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times (3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 1, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 4 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 2, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 5 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 5, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 10, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL})) / N_{untreated}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{treaty,longevity,15} = T_{extend} \\times \\rho_{HALE,15} \\times f_{cure,15,treaty} = 20 \\times 30\\% \\times 100\\% = 6\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":3255000.0000000005},"TREATY_HEALTH_RECOVERY_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.03717029828634808,0.13635319264340184],"conservative":null,"description":"Annualized GDP growth bonus by year 15 from lower disease burden plus eliminating existing-drug efficacy lag under the treaty path.","displayName":"Treaty Health Recovery GDP Growth Bonus (Year 15)","formatted":"8.5%","formula":"((1 + TREATY_DISEASE_CURE_FRACTION_15YR × DISEASE_BURDEN_GDP_DRAG_PCT + (EXISTING_DRUGS_EFFICACY_LAG_ECONOMIC_LOSS ÷ GLOBAL_GDP_2025))^(1/15)) - 1","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\ng_{health,treaty,15} = ((1 + f_{cure,15,treaty} \\times d_{disease} + \\left(\\frac{Loss_{lag}}{GDP_{global}}\\right))^{\\frac{1}{15}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times (3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 1, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 4 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 2, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 5 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 5, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 10, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL})) / N_{untreated}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{lag} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times (LE_{global} - Age_{death,delay}) \\times Value_{QALY} = 102M \\times (79 - 62) \\times \\$150K = \\$259T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.08464569668336508},"TREATY_HEALTH_RECOVERY_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.027750160924521216,0.10076699322947637],"conservative":null,"description":"Annualized GDP growth bonus by year 20 from lower disease burden plus eliminating existing-drug efficacy lag under the treaty path.","displayName":"Treaty Health Recovery GDP Growth Bonus (Year 20)","formatted":"6.3%","formula":"((1 + TREATY_DISEASE_CURE_FRACTION_20YR × DISEASE_BURDEN_GDP_DRAG_PCT + (EXISTING_DRUGS_EFFICACY_LAG_ECONOMIC_LOSS ÷ GLOBAL_GDP_2025))^(1/20)) - 1","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\ng_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease} + \\left(\\frac{Loss_{lag}}{GDP_{global}}\\right))^{\\frac{1}{20}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times (3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 1, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 4 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 2, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 5 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 5, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 8 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 10, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL})) / N_{untreated}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{lag} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times (LE_{global} - Age_{death,delay}) \\times Value_{QALY} = 102M \\times (79 - 62) \\times \\$150K = \\$259T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.06283518480816075},"TREATY_LIVES_SAVED_ANNUAL_GLOBAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1936.7739380097153,3023.663805094308],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual lives saved from 1% reduction in conflict deaths","displayName":"Annual Lives Saved from 1% Reduction in Conflict Deaths","formatted":"2,446 lives/year","formula":"TOTAL_DEATHS × REDUCTION_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nLives_{treaty,ann} = Deaths_{conflict} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = 245{,}000 \\times 1\\% = 2{,}450\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{conflict} = Deaths_{combat} + Deaths_{state} + Deaths_{terror} = 234{,}000 + 2{,}700 + 8{,}300 = 245{,}000\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"lives/year","value":2446},"TREATY_LONGEVITY_HALE_GAIN_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.7777876960411538,15.579742729846531],"conservative":null,"description":"Additional healthy years at year 15 from partial realization of longer-run treaty longevity gains. This removes the implicit cap at today's life expectancy while keeping year-15 realization conservative.","displayName":"Treaty Longevity HALE Gain at Year 15","formatted":"6 years","formula":"LIFE_EXTENSION_YEARS × HALE_LONGEVITY_REALIZATION_SHARE_YEAR_15 × TREATY_DISEASE_CURE_FRACTION_15YR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\Delta HALE_{treaty,longevity,15} = T_{extend} \\times \\rho_{HALE,15} \\times f_{cure,15,treaty} = 20 \\times 30\\% \\times 100\\% = 6\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times (3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 1, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 4 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 2, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 5 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 5, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 10, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL})) / N_{untreated}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":6},"TREATY_PEACE_PLUS_RD_ANNUAL_BENEFITS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[139577782454.35013,212709812869.55325],"conservative":null,"description":"Basic annual benefits: peace dividend + pragmatic trial R&D savings only (2 of 8 benefit categories, excludes regulatory delay value)","displayName":"1% treaty Basic Annual Benefits (Peace + R&D Savings)","formatted":"172.21B USD/year","formula":"PEACE_DIVIDEND + PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_RD_SAVINGS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nBenefit_{peace+RD} = Benefit_{peace,soc} + Benefit_{RD,ann} = \\$114B + \\$58.6B = \\$172B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{RD,ann} = Spending_{trials} \\times Reduce_{pct} = \\$60B \\times 97.7\\% = \\$58.6B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Reduce_{pct} = 1 - \\frac{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}}{Cost_{P3,pt}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$929}{\\$41K} = 97.7\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":172211487804.87805},"TREATY_PEACE_RECOVERY_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.0034483298930736953,0.00537849161838724],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual GDP growth bonus by year 15 from explicit avoided war-cost drag under the treaty take-hold path.","displayName":"Treaty Peace Recovery GDP Growth Bonus (Year 15)","formatted":"0.4%","formula":"(PEACE_DIVIDEND_ANNUAL_SOCIETAL_BENEFIT ÷ GLOBAL_GDP_2025) × (TREATY_EFFECTIVE_REALLOCATION_SHARE_YEAR_15 ÷ TREATY_REDUCTION_PCT) × PEACE_DIVIDEND_CONFLICT_ELASTICITY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\ng_{peace,treaty,15} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,15}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.004345325217391305},"TREATY_PEACE_RECOVERY_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.004545525768142599,0.007089829860601362],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual GDP growth bonus by year 20 from explicit avoided war-cost drag under the treaty take-hold path.","displayName":"Treaty Peace Recovery GDP Growth Bonus (Year 20)","formatted":"0.6%","formula":"(PEACE_DIVIDEND_ANNUAL_SOCIETAL_BENEFIT ÷ GLOBAL_GDP_2025) × (TREATY_EFFECTIVE_REALLOCATION_SHARE_YEAR_20 ÷ TREATY_REDUCTION_PCT) × PEACE_DIVIDEND_CONFLICT_ELASTICITY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\ng_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.005727928695652175},"TREATY_PERSONAL_UPSIDE_BLEND":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2618765.0912228203,15743727.934091745],"conservative":null,"description":"Blended personal upside under Treaty Trajectory: lifetime income gain plus valued healthy-life gains.","displayName":"Treaty Personal Upside (Blended)","formatted":"6.74M USD/person","formula":"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_LIFETIME_INCOME_GAIN_PER_CAPITA + TREATY_HALE_VALUE_PER_CAPITA","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nUpside_{blend,treaty} = \\Delta Y_{lifetime,treaty} + Value_{HALE,treaty} = \\$3.48M + \\$3.26M = \\$6.74M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta Y_{lifetime,treaty} = Y_{cum,treaty} - Y_{cum,earth} = \\$4.58M - \\$1.1M = \\$3.48M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,treaty} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,treaty})((1+g_{pc,treaty})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,treaty}} + \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$919T}{9.2B} = \\$99.9K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease} + \\left(\\frac{Loss_{lag}}{GDP_{global}}\\right))^{\\frac{1}{20}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times (3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 1, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 4 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 2, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 5 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 5, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 8 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 10, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL})) / N_{untreated}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{lag} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times (LE_{global} - Age_{death,delay}) \\times Value_{QALY} = 102M \\times (79 - 62) \\times \\$150K = \\$259T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{remaining} = LE_{global} - Age_{median} = 79 - 30.5 = 48.5\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,earth} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Value_{HALE,treaty} = \\Delta HALE_{treaty,15} \\times Value_{QALY} = 21.7 \\times \\$150K = \\$3.26M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{treaty,15} = f_{cure,15,treaty} \\times \\Delta_{HALE} + \\Delta HALE_{treaty,longevity,15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times (3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 1, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 4 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 2, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 5 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 5, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 10, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL})) / N_{untreated}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{treaty,longevity,15} = T_{extend} \\times \\rho_{HALE,15} \\times f_{cure,15,treaty} = 20 \\times 30\\% \\times 100\\% = 6\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":6735017.193154482},"TREATY_PROJECTED_HALE_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/earth-optimization-prize-protocol.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[76.42960072137375,95.59792125987977],"conservative":null,"description":"Projected global HALE at year 15 under Treaty Trajectory. Current HALE plus the treaty-driven improvement from closing the disease gap.","displayName":"Treaty Projected HALE at Year 15","formatted":"85 years","formula":"GLOBAL_HALE_CURRENT + TREATY_HALE_GAIN_YEAR_15","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nHALE_{treaty,15} = HALE_{0} + \\Delta HALE_{treaty,15} = 63.3 + 21.7 = 85\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{treaty,15} = f_{cure,15,treaty} \\times \\Delta_{HALE} + \\Delta HALE_{treaty,longevity,15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times (3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 1, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 4 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 2, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 5 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 5, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 10, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL})) / N_{untreated}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{treaty,longevity,15} = T_{extend} \\times \\rho_{HALE,15} \\times f_{cure,15,treaty} = 20 \\times 30\\% \\times 100\\% = 6\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":85},"TREATY_QALYS_GAINED_ANNUAL_GLOBAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[45090.703410425085,140597.88743449724],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual QALYs gained from peace dividend (lives saved × QALYs/life)","displayName":"Annual QALYs Gained from Peace Dividend","formatted":"85,610 QALYs/year","formula":"LIVES_SAVED × QALYS_PER_LIFE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nQALY_{treaty,ann} = QALY_{life} \\times Lives_{treaty,ann} = 35 \\times 2{,}450 = 85{,}600\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{treaty,ann} = Deaths_{conflict} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = 245{,}000 \\times 1\\% = 2{,}450\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{conflict} = Deaths_{combat} + Deaths_{state} + Deaths_{terror} = 234{,}000 + 2{,}700 + 8{,}300 = 245{,}000\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"QALYs/year","value":85610},"TREATY_REDIRECT_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.0044370932729961695,0.012627190515325027],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual GDP growth bonus by year 15 from redirecting military spending to medical research under the treaty take-hold path, including R&D spillovers.","displayName":"Treaty Redirect GDP Growth Bonus (Year 15)","formatted":"0.8%","formula":"TREATY_EFFECTIVE_REALLOCATION_SHARE_YEAR_15 × ((MILITARY_REDIRECT_GDP_BOOST_AT_30PCT ÷ 0.30) × (RD_SPILLOVER_MULTIPLIER ÷ 2.0))","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\ng_{redirect,treaty,15} \\\\\n= \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 \\\\\n= 4.4\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 \\\\\n= 0.807\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.008066666666666668},"TREATY_REDIRECT_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.005848895678040405,0.016644932952019353],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual GDP growth bonus by year 20 from redirecting military spending to medical research under the treaty take-hold path, including R&D spillovers.","displayName":"Treaty Redirect GDP Growth Bonus (Year 20)","formatted":"1.1%","formula":"TREATY_EFFECTIVE_REALLOCATION_SHARE_YEAR_20 × ((MILITARY_REDIRECT_GDP_BOOST_AT_30PCT ÷ 0.30) × (RD_SPILLOVER_MULTIPLIER ÷ 2.0))","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\ng_{redirect,treaty,20} \\\\\n= \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 \\\\\n= 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 \\\\\n= 1.06\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.010633333333333337},"TREATY_ROI_EXISTING_DRUGS_ONLY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[109575.62859505219,418848.4478419997],"conservative":null,"description":"Treaty ROI based on historical rate of drug development (existing drugs only). Total one-time benefit from avoiding regulatory delay for drugs already in development divided by campaign cost. Excludes future innovation effects.","displayName":"Treaty ROI - Historical Rate (Existing Drugs)","formatted":"259,109.75 ratio","formula":"HISTORICAL_PROGRESS_TOTAL ÷ CAMPAIGN_COST","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nROI_{drugs} = \\frac{Loss_{lag}}{Cost_{campaign}} = \\frac{\\$259T}{\\$1B} = 259{,}000\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{lag} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times (LE_{global} - Age_{death,delay}) \\times Value_{QALY} = 102M \\times (79 - 62) \\times \\$150K = \\$259T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{campaign} = Budget_{viral,base} + Budget_{lobby,treaty} + Budget_{reserve} = \\$250M + \\$650M + \\$100M = \\$1B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":259109.75},"TREATY_ROI_TRIAL_CAPACITY_PLUS_EFFICACY_LAG":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[46635931.419969685,144192519.49935907],"conservative":null,"description":"Treaty ROI from elimination of efficacy lag plus earlier treatment discovery from increased trial throughput. Total one-time benefit divided by campaign cost. This is the primary ROI estimate for total health benefits.","displayName":"Treaty ROI - Elimination of Efficacy Lag Plus Earlier Treatment Discovery from Increased Trial Throughput","formatted":"84.79M ratio","formula":"TOTAL_TIMELINE_SHIFT_ECONOMIC_VALUE ÷ CAMPAIGN_COST","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nROI_{max} = \\frac{Value_{max}}{Cost_{campaign}} = \\frac{\\$84800T}{\\$1B} = 84.8M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Value_{max} = DALYs_{max} \\times Value_{QALY} = 565B \\times \\$150K = \\$84800T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{campaign} = Budget_{viral,base} + Budget_{lobby,treaty} + Budget_{reserve} = \\$250M + \\$650M + \\$100M = \\$1B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":84786551.00264984},"TREATY_TOTAL_ANNUAL_COSTS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[185387859.49583456,434149103.2814725],"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual treaty system costs (campaign + pragmatic trial platform operations)","displayName":"Total Annual Treaty System Costs","formatted":"290.00M USD/year","formula":"CAMPAIGN_ANNUAL + TRIAL_PLATFORM_OPEX","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{treaty,ann} = OPEX_{trial} + Cost_{camp,amort} = \\$40M + \\$250M = \\$290M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{camp,amort} = \\frac{Cost_{campaign}}{T_{campaign}} = \\frac{\\$1B}{4} = \\$250M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{campaign} = Budget_{viral,base} + Budget_{lobby,treaty} + Budget_{reserve} = \\$250M + \\$650M + \\$100M = \\$1B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":290000000},"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_AVG_INCOME_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[37794.37500062444,161224.52437412698],"conservative":null,"description":"Average income (GDP per capita) at year 15 under the Treaty Trajectory.","displayName":"Treaty Trajectory Average Income at Year 15","formatted":"$76.70K","formula":"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_15 / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2040_PROJECTED","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\bar{y}_{treaty,15} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,15}}{Pop_{2040}} = \\frac{\\$683T}{8.9B} = \\$76.7K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,15} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,15} + g_{peace,treaty,15} + g_{cyber,treaty,15} + g_{health,treaty,15})^{15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,15} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 4.4\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 0.807\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,15} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,15}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,15} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,15} = ((1 + f_{cure,15,treaty} \\times d_{disease} + \\left(\\frac{Loss_{lag}}{GDP_{global}}\\right))^{\\frac{1}{15}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times (3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 1, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 4 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 2, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 5 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 5, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 10, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL})) / N_{untreated}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{lag} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times (LE_{global} - Age_{death,delay}) \\times Value_{QALY} = 102M \\times (79 - 62) \\times \\$150K = \\$259T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":76704.0062670062},"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_AVG_INCOME_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[47101.246641665486,222032.35163656564],"conservative":null,"description":"Average income (GDP per capita) at year 20 under the Treaty Trajectory.","displayName":"Treaty Trajectory Average Income at Year 20","formatted":"$99.86K","formula":"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20 / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2045_PROJECTED","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\bar{y}_{treaty,20} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$919T}{9.2B} = \\$99.9K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease} + \\left(\\frac{Loss_{lag}}{GDP_{global}}\\right))^{\\frac{1}{20}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times (3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 1, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 4 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 2, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 5 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 5, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 8 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 10, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL})) / N_{untreated}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{lag} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times (LE_{global} - Age_{death,delay}) \\times Value_{QALY} = 102M \\times (79 - 62) \\times \\$150K = \\$259T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":99860.6273447306},"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_CAGR_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.0685777310958065,0.15471634136585175],"conservative":null,"description":"Compound annual growth rate implied by Treaty Trajectory GDP trajectory over 20 years.","displayName":"Treaty Trajectory CAGR (20 Years)","formatted":"10.9%","formula":"(TREATY_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20 ÷ GLOBAL_GDP_2025)^(1/20) - 1","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\ng_{treaty,CAGR} = \\left(\\frac{GDP_{treaty,20}}{GDP_{global}}\\right)^{\\frac{1}{20}} - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease} + \\left(\\frac{Loss_{lag}}{GDP_{global}}\\right))^{\\frac{1}{20}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times (3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 1, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 4 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 2, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 5 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 5, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 8 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 10, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL})) / N_{untreated}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{lag} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times (LE_{global} - Age_{death,delay}) \\times Value_{QALY} = 102M \\times (79 - 62) \\times \\$150K = \\$259T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.10949209901105927},"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_CUMULATIVE_LIFETIME_INCOME":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/recruitment-and-propaganda-plan.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2044974.545558699,11036015.600371161],"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative per-capita income over an average remaining lifespan under Treaty Trajectory. Uses implied per-capita CAGR for years 1-20 (derived from known year-0 and year-20 per-capita incomes), then current-trajectory per-capita growth from the year-20 level. Conservative: assumes no further treaty acceleration beyond year 20.","displayName":"Treaty Trajectory Cumulative Lifetime Income (Per Capita)","formatted":"$4.58M","formula":"Phase 1: y0*(1+g_pc,treaty)*((1+g_pc,treaty)^20-1)/g_pc,treaty + Phase 2: y20*(1+g_pc,base)*((1+g_pc,base)^(T-20)-1)/g_pc,base","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nY_{cum,treaty} \\\\\n= \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,treaty})((1+g_{pc,treaty})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,treaty}} \\\\\n+ \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":4577035.673010594},"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_GDP_VS_CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_MULTIPLIER_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2.019581358292781,8.615198529416803],"conservative":null,"description":"Treaty Trajectory GDP at year 15 as a multiple of current trajectory GDP at year 15.","displayName":"Treaty Trajectory vs Current Trajectory GDP Multiplier (Year 15)","formatted":"4.0987575839171555 x","formula":"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_15 / CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_15","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{treaty:base,15} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,15}}{GDP_{base,15}} = \\frac{\\$683T}{\\$167T} = 4.1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,15} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,15} + g_{peace,treaty,15} + g_{cyber,treaty,15} + g_{health,treaty,15})^{15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,15} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 4.4\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 0.807\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,15} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,15}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,15} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,15} = ((1 + f_{cure,15,treaty} \\times d_{disease} + \\left(\\frac{Loss_{lag}}{GDP_{global}}\\right))^{\\frac{1}{15}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times (3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 1, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 4 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 2, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 5 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 5, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 10, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL})) / N_{untreated}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{lag} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times (LE_{global} - Age_{death,delay}) \\times Value_{QALY} = 102M \\times (79 - 62) \\times \\$150K = \\$259T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,15} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{15}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":4.0987575839171555},"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_GDP_VS_CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_MULTIPLIER_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/recruitment-and-propaganda-plan.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2.2995617758268425,10.839991406272832],"conservative":null,"description":"Treaty Trajectory GDP at year 20 as a multiple of current trajectory GDP at year 20.","displayName":"Treaty Trajectory vs Current Trajectory GDP Multiplier (Year 20)","formatted":"4.875363136331447 x","formula":"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20 ÷ CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{treaty:base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,20}}{GDP_{base,20}} = \\frac{\\$919T}{\\$188T} = 4.88\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease} + \\left(\\frac{Loss_{lag}}{GDP_{global}}\\right))^{\\frac{1}{20}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times (3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 1, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 4 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 2, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 5 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 5, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 8 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 10, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL})) / N_{untreated}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{lag} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times (LE_{global} - Age_{death,delay}) \\times Value_{QALY} = 102M \\times (79 - 62) \\times \\$150K = \\$259T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":4.875363136331447},"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[336369937505557.5,1434898266929730],"conservative":null,"description":"Projected global GDP at year 15 under the optimistic treaty take-hold path. Compounds baseline growth plus explicit military redirect spillovers, peace dividend recovery, cybercrime drag recovery, and health recovery from disease cures and faster deployment.","displayName":"Treaty Trajectory GDP at Year 15","formatted":"$682.67T","formula":"GLOBAL_GDP_2025 × (1 + GDP_BASELINE_GROWTH_RATE + TREATY_REDIRECT_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_15 + TREATY_PEACE_RECOVERY_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_15 + TREATY_CYBERCRIME_RECOVERY_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_15 + TREATY_HEALTH_RECOVERY_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_15)^15","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nGDP_{treaty,15} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,15} + g_{peace,treaty,15} + g_{cyber,treaty,15} + g_{health,treaty,15})^{15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,15} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 4.4\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 0.807\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,15} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,15}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,15} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,15} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,15} = ((1 + f_{cure,15,treaty} \\times d_{disease} + \\left(\\frac{Loss_{lag}}{GDP_{global}}\\right))^{\\frac{1}{15}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times (3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 1, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 4 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 2, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 5 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 5, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 10, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL})) / N_{untreated}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{lag} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times (LE_{global} - Age_{death,delay}) \\times Value_{QALY} = 102M \\times (79 - 62) \\times \\$150K = \\$259T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":682665655776355.2},"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[433331469103322.44,2042697635056404],"conservative":null,"description":"Projected global GDP at year 20 under the optimistic treaty take-hold path. Compounds baseline growth plus explicit military redirect spillovers, peace dividend recovery, cybercrime drag recovery, and health recovery from disease cures and faster deployment.","displayName":"Treaty Trajectory GDP at Year 20","formatted":"$918.72T","formula":"GLOBAL_GDP_2025 × (1 + GDP_BASELINE_GROWTH_RATE + TREATY_REDIRECT_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_20 + TREATY_PEACE_RECOVERY_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_20 + TREATY_CYBERCRIME_RECOVERY_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_20 + TREATY_HEALTH_RECOVERY_GDP_GROWTH_BONUS_YEAR_20)^20","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nGDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease} + \\left(\\frac{Loss_{lag}}{GDP_{global}}\\right))^{\\frac{1}{20}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times (3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 1, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 4 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 2, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 5 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 5, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 8 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 10, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL})) / N_{untreated}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{lag} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times (LE_{global} - Age_{death,delay}) \\times Value_{QALY} = 102M \\times (79 - 62) \\times \\$150K = \\$259T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":918717771571521.5},"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_LIFETIME_INCOME_GAIN_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/recruitment-and-propaganda-plan.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1053327.746201304,9822019.242804311],"conservative":null,"description":"Lifetime per-capita income gain from Treaty Trajectory vs current trajectory. Cumulative treaty income minus cumulative earth income over average remaining lifespan. Uses global averages; individual gain scales with starting income.","displayName":"Treaty Trajectory Lifetime Income Gain (Per Capita)","formatted":"$3.48M","formula":"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_CUMULATIVE_LIFETIME_INCOME - CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_CUMULATIVE_LIFETIME_INCOME","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\Delta Y_{lifetime,treaty} = Y_{cum,treaty} - Y_{cum,earth} = \\$4.58M - \\$1.1M = \\$3.48M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,treaty} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,treaty})((1+g_{pc,treaty})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,treaty}} + \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$919T}{9.2B} = \\$99.9K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease} + \\left(\\frac{Loss_{lag}}{GDP_{global}}\\right))^{\\frac{1}{20}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times (3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 1, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 4 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 2, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 5 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 5, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 8 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 10, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL})) / N_{untreated}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{lag} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times (LE_{global} - Age_{death,delay}) \\times Value_{QALY} = 102M \\times (79 - 62) \\times \\$150K = \\$259T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{remaining} = LE_{global} - Age_{median} = 79 - 30.5 = 48.5\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,earth} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":3480017.1931544817},"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_LIFETIME_INCOME_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/recruitment-and-propaganda-plan.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2.0622005233920797,9.090649652325956],"conservative":null,"description":"Ratio of cumulative lifetime income under Treaty Trajectory vs current trajectory. Income-agnostic: applies as a multiplier to any individual's lifetime earnings.","displayName":"Treaty Trajectory Lifetime Income Multiplier","formatted":"4.172250292092554 x","formula":"TREATY_TRAJECTORY_CUMULATIVE_LIFETIME_INCOME / CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_CUMULATIVE_LIFETIME_INCOME","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{lifetime,treaty:earth} = \\frac{Y_{cum,treaty}}{Y_{cum,earth}} = \\frac{\\$4.58M}{\\$1.1M} = 4.17\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,treaty} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,treaty})((1+g_{pc,treaty})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,treaty}} + \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{treaty,20} = \\frac{GDP_{treaty,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$919T}{9.2B} = \\$99.9K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease} + \\left(\\frac{Loss_{lag}}{GDP_{global}}\\right))^{\\frac{1}{20}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times (3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 1, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 4 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 2, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 5 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 5, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 8 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 10, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL})) / N_{untreated}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{lag} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times (LE_{global} - Age_{death,delay}) \\times Value_{QALY} = 102M \\times (79 - 62) \\times \\$150K = \\$259T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{remaining} = LE_{global} - Age_{median} = 79 - 30.5 = 48.5\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,earth} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":4.172250292092554},"TREATY_VS_BED_NETS_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[23750.959019671558,111704.64589829551],"conservative":null,"description":"How many times more cost-effective than bed nets (using bed net cost per DALY midpoint estimate)","displayName":"Cost-Effectiveness vs Bed Nets Multiplier","formatted":"50,306.687 x","formula":"BED_NETS_COST_PER_DALY ÷ TREATY_COST_PER_DALY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{treaty:nets} = \\frac{Cost_{nets}}{Cost_{treaty,DALY}} = \\frac{\\$89}{\\$0.00177} = 50{,}300\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{treaty,DALY} = \\frac{Cost_{campaign}}{DALYs_{max}} = \\frac{\\$1B}{565B} = \\$0.00177\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{campaign} = Budget_{viral,base} + Budget_{lobby,treaty} + Budget_{reserve} = \\$250M + \\$650M + \\$100M = \\$1B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":50306.6869282389},"TREATY_VS_DIRECT_FUNDING_LEVERAGE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[328.80039346995613,462.39601189962843],"conservative":null,"description":"How many times more cost-effective the treaty campaign is vs direct pragmatic trial funding. Treaty campaign unlocks government funding at scale, avoiding need for philanthropists/NIH to directly commit equivalent amounts. Both approaches achieve same DALY timeline shift benefit. Treaty spreads cost across governments while building sustainable public funding infrastructure.","displayName":"Treaty Campaign Leverage vs Direct Funding","formatted":"475.6594654774342 x","formula":"DIRECT_PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_FUNDING_COST_PER_DALY ÷ TREATY_COST_PER_DALY","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nLeverage_{treaty} = \\frac{Cost_{direct,DALY}}{Cost_{treaty,DALY}} = \\frac{\\$0.842}{\\$0.00177} = 476\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{direct,DALY} = \\frac{NPV_{direct}}{DALYs_{max}} = \\frac{\\$476B}{565B} = \\$0.842\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } NPV_{direct} = \\frac{T_{queue,trial}}{Funding_{trial,ref} \\times r_{discount}} = \\frac{36}{\\$21.8B \\times 3\\%} = \\$476B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{treaty,DALY} = \\frac{Cost_{campaign}}{DALYs_{max}} = \\frac{\\$1B}{565B} = \\$0.00177\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{campaign} = Budget_{viral,base} + Budget_{lobby,treaty} + Budget_{reserve} = \\$250M + \\$650M + \\$100M = \\$1B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":475.6594654774342},"TRIAL_CAPACITY_CUMULATIVE_YEARS_20YR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[83.97010837035393,1228.2512588198824],"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative trial-capacity-equivalent years over 20-year period","displayName":"Cumulative Trial Capacity Years Over 20 Years","formatted":"246.5582686533341 years","formula":"PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER × 20 YEARS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCapacity_{20yr} = k_{capacity} \\times 20 = 12.3 \\times 20 = 247\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":246.5582686533341},"TYPE_II_ERROR_COST_RATIO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[2878.2166416468235,3124.711725645856],"conservative":null,"description":"Ratio of Type II error cost to Type I error benefit (harm from delay vs. harm prevented)","displayName":"Ratio of Type II Error Cost to Type I Error Benefit","formatted":"3,067.754 ratio","formula":"TYPE_II_COST ÷ TYPE_I_BENEFIT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nRatio_{TypeII} = \\frac{DALYs_{lag}}{DALY_{TypeI}} = \\frac{7.94B}{2.59M} = 3{,}070\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{lag} = YLL_{lag} + YLD_{lag} = 7.07B + 873M = 7.94B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLL_{lag} = Deaths_{lag} \\times (LE_{global} - Age_{death,delay}) = 416M \\times (79 - 62) = 7.07B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag} = T_{lag} \\times Deaths_{disease,daily} \\times 338 = 8.2 \\times 150{,}000 \\times 338 = 416M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLD_{lag} = Deaths_{lag} \\times T_{suffering} \\times DW_{chronic} = 416M \\times 6 \\times 0.35 = 873M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALY_{TypeI} = DALY_{thal} \\times 62 = 41{,}800 \\times 62 = 2.59M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALY_{thal} = YLD_{thal} + YLL_{thal} = 13{,}000 + 28{,}800 = 41{,}800\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLD_{thal} = DW_{thal} \\times N_{thal,survive} \\times LE_{thal} = 0.4 \\times 540 \\times 60 = 13{,}000\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{thal,survive} = N_{thal,US,prevent} \\times (1 - Rate_{thal,mort}) = 900 \\times (1 - 40\\%) = 540\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{thal,US,prevent} = N_{thal,global} \\times Pct_{US,1960} = 15{,}000 \\times 6\\% = 900\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLL_{thal} = Deaths_{thal} \\times 80 = 360 \\times 80 = 28{,}800\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{thal} = Rate_{thal,mort} \\times N_{thal,US,prevent} = 40\\% \\times 900 = 360\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":3067.7541293180693},"TYPE_I_ERROR_BENEFIT_DALYS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[1538061.438467957,4157618.2067398536],"conservative":null,"description":"Maximum DALYs saved by FDA preventing unsafe drugs over 62-year period 1962-2024 (extreme overestimate: one Thalidomide-scale event per year)","displayName":"Maximum DALYs Saved by FDA Preventing Unsafe Drugs (1962-2024)","formatted":"2.59M DALYs","formula":"THALIDOMIDE_DALYS_PER_EVENT × 62 years","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDALY_{TypeI} = DALY_{thal} \\times 62 = 41{,}800 \\times 62 = 2.59M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALY_{thal} = YLD_{thal} + YLL_{thal} = 13{,}000 + 28{,}800 = 41{,}800\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLD_{thal} = DW_{thal} \\times N_{thal,survive} \\times LE_{thal} = 0.4 \\times 540 \\times 60 = 13{,}000\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{thal,survive} = N_{thal,US,prevent} \\times (1 - Rate_{thal,mort}) = 900 \\times (1 - 40\\%) = 540\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{thal,US,prevent} = N_{thal,global} \\times Pct_{US,1960} = 15{,}000 \\times 6\\% = 900\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLL_{thal} = Deaths_{thal} \\times 80 = 360 \\times 80 = 28{,}800\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{thal} = Rate_{thal,mort} \\times N_{thal,US,prevent} = 40\\% \\times 900 = 360\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"DALYs","value":2589120},"UNEXPLORED_RATIO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/nih-fails-2-institute-health.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.9937345475396063,0.9981950785984394],"conservative":null,"description":"Fraction of possible drug-disease space that remains unexplored (>99%)","displayName":"Unexplored Therapeutic Frontier","formatted":"99.7%","formula":"1 - EXPLORATION_RATIO","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nRatio_{unexplored} = 1 - \\frac{N_{tested}}{N_{combos}} = 1 - \\frac{32{,}500}{9.5M} = 99.7\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{combos} = N_{safe} \\times N_{diseases,trial} = 9{,}500 \\times 1{,}000 = 9.5M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percentage","value":0.996578947368421},"US_1939_MILITARY_SPENDING_PCT_LOWER_THAN_CURRENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"How much lower pre-WW2 (1939) US military spending was than today's peacetime budget, in constant 2024 dollars","displayName":"Pre-WW2 US Military Spending % Lower than Current","formatted":"0.9672686230248307 percent","formula":"1 - (US_MILITARY_SPENDING_1939 / US_MILITARY_SPENDING_2024)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nPct_{1939<2024} \\\\\n= 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1939}}{Spending_{US,2024}} \\\\\n= 1 - \\frac{\\$29B}{\\$886B} \\\\\n= 96.7\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.9672686230248307},"US_CONGRESS_FULL_ADVOCACY_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/cost-of-change-analysis.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Upper-bound advocacy cost to match career incentives for all 535 members of Congress","displayName":"US Congress Full Advocacy Cost","formatted":"$5.35B","formula":"CONGRESS_MEMBERS x POST_OFFICE_VALUE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{US,congress} \\\\\n= N_{congress} \\times V_{post-office} \\\\\n= 535 \\times \\$10M \\\\\n= \\$5.35B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":5350000000},"US_FEDERAL_SPENDING_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/unrepresentative-democracy.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[20046.750911176718,20559.52560556694],"conservative":null,"description":"US federal spending per capita. $6.8T total federal spending divided by 335M population.","displayName":"US Federal Spending per Capita","formatted":"20,298.507 USD/person","formula":"US_FEDERAL_SPENDING_2024 / US_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSpend_{fed,pc} \\\\\n= \\frac{Spending_{US,fed}}{Pop_{US}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$6.8T}{335M} \\\\\n= \\$20.3K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":20298.507462686568},"US_FED_DISCRETIONARY_EFFICIENCY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[0.23814381709078974,0.5352941176470588],"conservative":null,"description":"US federal discretionary spending efficiency. What fraction of discretionary spending avoids direct waste (Cat 1 only: military overspend, corporate welfare, drug war, fossil/ag subsidies). ~41%. Some Cat 1 items (farm subsidies, tax expenditures) are technically mandatory/off-budget but are fungible policy choices.","displayName":"US Discretionary Efficiency","formatted":"0.4052941176470588 percent","formula":"1 - (CAT1 / DISCRETIONARY)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nE_{US,disc} = 1 - \\frac{W_{cat1}}{Spending_{US,disc}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$1.01T}{\\$1.7T} = 40.5\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{cat1} = W_{military} + W_{corporate} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$615B + \\$181B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$1.01T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.4052941176470588},"US_FED_DISCRETIONARY_WASTE_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[0.4647058823529412,0.7618561829092102],"conservative":null,"description":"Category 1 direct spending waste as percentage of federal discretionary spending. ~$1.01T Cat 1 waste / $1.7T discretionary = ~59%. Uses discretionary spending as denominator because Cat 1 items (military overspend, corporate welfare, drug war, fossil/ag subsidies) are fungible policy choices within discretionary budget.","displayName":"Discretionary Waste (%)","formatted":"0.5947058823529412 percent","formula":"US_GOV_WASTE_CATEGORY_1_DIRECT_SPENDING / US_FED_DISCRETIONARY_SPENDING_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nW_{US,\\%disc} = \\frac{W_{cat1}}{Spending_{US,disc}} = \\frac{\\$1.01T}{\\$1.7T} = 59.5\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{cat1} = W_{military} + W_{corporate} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$615B + \\$181B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$1.01T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.5947058823529412},"US_GOVERNANCE_EFFICIENCY_GDP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[0.774090971220075,0.8743826139538948],"conservative":null,"description":"Total US governance efficiency: all 4 waste categories as share of GDP. 1 - ($4.9T / $28.78T) = ~83%. This broader metric captures direct spending waste, compliance burden, policy-induced GDP loss, and system inefficiency relative to total economic output.","displayName":"US Governance Efficiency (GDP)","formatted":"0.8298471160528145 percent","formula":"1 - (US_GOV_WASTE_TOTAL / US_GDP)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nE_{US,GDP} = 1 - \\frac{W_{total,US}}{GDP_{US}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$4.9T}{\\$28.8T} = 83\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{total,US} = W_{raw,US} \\times \\delta_{overlap} = \\$4.9T \\times 1 = \\$4.9T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{raw,US} = W_{health} + W_{housing} + W_{military} + W_{regulatory} + W_{tax} + W_{corporate} + W_{tariffs} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$1.2T + \\$1.4T + \\$615B + \\$580B + \\$546B + \\$181B + \\$160B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$4.9T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.8298471160528145},"US_GOV_WASTE_CATEGORY_1_DIRECT_SPENDING":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[790000000000,1295155510945.6575],"conservative":null,"description":"Category 1: Direct Federal Spending Waste. Actual federal budget allocations that could be redirected. Includes military overspend ($615B), corporate welfare ($181B), drug war ($90B), fossil fuel subsidies ($50B), and agricultural subsidies ($75B). Total: ~$1.01T annually. Solution: Budget reallocation.","displayName":"Category 1: Direct Spending Waste","formatted":"$1.01T","formula":"Military + Corporate + Drug War + Fossil + Agriculture","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nW_{cat1} \\\\\n= W_{military} + W_{corporate} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} \\\\\n+ W_{agriculture} \\\\\n= \\$615B + \\$181B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B \\\\\n= \\$1.01T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1011000000000},"US_GOV_WASTE_CATEGORY_2_COMPLIANCE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[775142592947.059,1579104876904.8782],"conservative":null,"description":"Category 2: Compliance Burden on Private Sector. Private sector resources consumed by government-imposed compliance requirements. Includes tax compliance ($546B) and regulatory red tape ($580B). Total: ~$1.13T annually. Solution: Simplification (tax code reform, regulatory streamlining).","displayName":"Category 2: Compliance Burden","formatted":"$1.13T","formula":"Tax Compliance + Regulatory Red Tape","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nW_{cat2} \\\\\n= W_{tax} + W_{regulatory} \\\\\n= \\$546B + \\$580B \\\\\n= \\$1.13T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1126000000000},"US_GOV_WASTE_CATEGORY_3_GDP_LOSS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[1050125777459.8462,2180990461143.1948],"conservative":null,"description":"Category 3: Policy-Induced GDP Loss. Economic output foregone due to policy constraints on markets. Includes housing/zoning restrictions ($1.4T) and tariffs ($160B). Total: ~$1.56T annually. Solution: Policy reform (zoning liberalization, trade policy).","displayName":"Category 3: GDP Loss","formatted":"$1.56T","formula":"Housing/Zoning + Tariffs","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nW_{cat3} \\\\\n= W_{housing} + W_{tariffs} \\\\\n= \\$1.4T + \\$160B \\\\\n= \\$1.56T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1560000000000},"US_GOV_WASTE_CATEGORY_4_SYSTEM":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1000000000000,1446410999292.5112],"conservative":null,"description":"Category 4: Total System Inefficiency. Fundamental system design failures requiring structural redesign. Currently only healthcare system inefficiency ($1.2T). Solution: System redesign using competitive market models (Singapore's catastrophic coverage + HSAs, Switzerland's regulated competition).","displayName":"Category 4: System Inefficiency","formatted":"$1.20T","formula":"Healthcare Inefficiency","latex":"W_{cat4} = W_{health} = \\$1.2T = \\$1.2T","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1200000000000},"US_GOV_WASTE_PCT_GDP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/optimocracy-paper.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[0.12561738604610512,0.22590902877992503],"conservative":null,"description":"US government waste as percentage of GDP. ~$4.90T waste / $28.78T GDP = ~17%. This represents the 'dysfunction tax' that American citizens effectively pay through inefficient governance.","displayName":"US Waste (% GDP)","formatted":"0.17015288394718556 percent","formula":"US_GOV_WASTE_TOTAL / US_GDP","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nW_{US,\\%GDP} = \\frac{W_{total,US}}{GDP_{US}} = \\frac{\\$4.9T}{\\$28.8T} = 17\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{total,US} = W_{raw,US} \\times \\delta_{overlap} = \\$4.9T \\times 1 = \\$4.9T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{raw,US} = W_{health} + W_{housing} + W_{military} + W_{regulatory} + W_{tax} + W_{corporate} + W_{tariffs} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$1.2T + \\$1.4T + \\$615B + \\$580B + \\$546B + \\$181B + \\$160B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$4.9T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.17015288394718556},"US_GOV_WASTE_QALY_EQUIVALENTS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[36152683.704069056,65016618.48286242],"conservative":null,"description":"US government waste expressed as QALY equivalents. This is an economic equivalent, NOT epidemiological health outcomes. Dividing by QALY threshold yields a measure of foregone welfare.","displayName":"US Waste (QALY Equivalents)","formatted":"48.97M QALYs","formula":"US_GOV_WASTE_TOTAL / QALY_THRESHOLD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nW_{US,QALY} = \\frac{W_{total,US}}{QALY_{threshold}} = \\frac{\\$4.9T}{\\$100K} = 49M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{total,US} = W_{raw,US} \\times \\delta_{overlap} = \\$4.9T \\times 1 = \\$4.9T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{raw,US} = W_{health} + W_{housing} + W_{military} + W_{regulatory} + W_{tax} + W_{corporate} + W_{tariffs} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$1.2T + \\$1.4T + \\$615B + \\$580B + \\$546B + \\$181B + \\$160B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$4.9T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"QALYs","value":48970000},"US_GOV_WASTE_RAW_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[3615268370406.9053,6501661848286.242],"conservative":null,"description":"Raw sum of US government waste components before overlap discount: healthcare ($1.2T) + housing ($1.4T) + military ($615B) + regulatory ($580B) + tax ($546B) + corporate ($181B) + tariffs ($160B) + drug war ($90B) + fossil fuel ($50B) + agriculture ($75B) = ~$4.9T raw.","displayName":"US Gov Waste (Raw Total)","formatted":"$4.90T","formula":"SUM(all 10 components)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nW_{raw,US} \\\\\n= W_{health} + W_{housing} + W_{military} + W_{regulatory} \\\\\n+ W_{tax} + W_{corporate} + W_{tariffs} + W_{drugs} \\\\\n+ W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} \\\\\n= \\$1.2T + \\$1.4T + \\$615B + \\$580B + \\$546B + \\$181B + \\$160B \\\\\n+ \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B \\\\\n= \\$4.9T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":4897000000000},"US_GOV_WASTE_RECOVERABLE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[1807634185203.4526,3250830924143.121],"conservative":null,"description":"Recoverable capital if US improved to OECD median efficiency. Current US efficiency ~38-48%; OECD median ~75-85%. Closing to ~80% would recover approximately half the gap.","displayName":"Recoverable Capital","formatted":"$2.45T","formula":"US_GOV_WASTE_TOTAL x 0.50","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nW_{US,recoverable} = W_{total,US} \\times 0.5 = \\$4.9T \\times 0.5 = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{total,US} = W_{raw,US} \\times \\delta_{overlap} = \\$4.9T \\times 1 = \\$4.9T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{raw,US} = W_{health} + W_{housing} + W_{military} + W_{regulatory} + W_{tax} + W_{corporate} + W_{tariffs} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$1.2T + \\$1.4T + \\$615B + \\$580B + \\$546B + \\$181B + \\$160B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$4.9T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":2448500000000},"US_GOV_WASTE_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[3615268370406.9053,6501661848286.242],"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual US government waste (additive sum of components). Consolidates healthcare ($1.2T), housing ($1.4T), military ($615B), regulatory ($580B), tax ($546B), corporate ($181B), tariffs ($160B), drug war ($90B), fossil fuel ($50B), agriculture ($75B). Categories treated as additive; any overlap offset by excluded categories (state/local inefficiency, implicit subsidies, behavioral effects). ~$4.9T annually.","displayName":"US Government Waste (Total)","formatted":"$4.90T","formula":"SUM(all components)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nW_{total,US} = W_{raw,US} \\times \\delta_{overlap} = \\$4.9T \\times 1 = \\$4.9T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{raw,US} = W_{health} + W_{housing} + W_{military} + W_{regulatory} + W_{tax} + W_{corporate} + W_{tariffs} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$1.2T + \\$1.4T + \\$615B + \\$580B + \\$546B + \\$181B + \\$160B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$4.9T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":4897000000000},"US_GOV_WASTE_VSL_EQUIVALENTS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[263888.20221948216,474573.8575391418],"conservative":null,"description":"US government waste expressed as VSL equivalents. This is an economic equivalent, NOT literal deaths. Dividing the efficiency gap by VSL yields a measure of foregone welfare.","displayName":"US Waste (VSL Equivalents)","formatted":"357,445.255 people","formula":"US_GOV_WASTE_TOTAL / DOT_VSL","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nW_{US,VSL} = \\frac{W_{total,US}}{VSL_{DOT}} = \\frac{\\$4.9T}{\\$13.7M} = 357{,}000\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{total,US} = W_{raw,US} \\times \\delta_{overlap} = \\$4.9T \\times 1 = \\$4.9T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{raw,US} = W_{health} + W_{housing} + W_{military} + W_{regulatory} + W_{tax} + W_{corporate} + W_{tariffs} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$1.2T + \\$1.4T + \\$615B + \\$580B + \\$546B + \\$181B + \\$160B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$4.9T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"people","value":357445.25547445257},"US_GOV_WASTE_VS_TREATY_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[132.9142783237833,239.0316855987589],"conservative":null,"description":"How many times the US government efficiency gap could fund the 1% Treaty. The efficiency gap represents capital that could fund transformative health research many times over.","displayName":"Efficiency Gap / Treaty Funding","formatted":"180.03676470588235 ratio","formula":"US_GOV_WASTE_TOTAL / TREATY_ANNUAL_FUNDING","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{waste:treaty} = \\frac{W_{total,US}}{Funding_{treaty}} = \\frac{\\$4.9T}{\\$27.2B} = 180\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{total,US} = W_{raw,US} \\times \\delta_{overlap} = \\$4.9T \\times 1 = \\$4.9T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } W_{raw,US} = W_{health} + W_{housing} + W_{military} + W_{regulatory} + W_{tax} + W_{corporate} + W_{tariffs} + W_{drugs} + W_{fossil} + W_{agriculture} = \\$1.2T + \\$1.4T + \\$615B + \\$580B + \\$546B + \\$181B + \\$160B + \\$90B + \\$50B + \\$75B = \\$4.9T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":180.03676470588235},"US_MAJOR_DISEASES_TOTAL_ANNUAL_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-disease.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1100057589121.9102,1415600525169.6226],"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual US cost of major diseases (diabetes, Alzheimer's, heart disease, cancer)","displayName":"US Major Diseases Total Annual Cost","formatted":"$1.25T","formula":"DIABETES + ALZHEIMERS + HEART + CANCER","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{disease,US} \\\\\n= Cost_{ALZ,US} + Cost_{cancer,US} + Cost_{diabetes,US} \\\\\n+ Cost_{heart,US} \\\\\n= \\$355B + \\$208B + \\$327B + \\$363B \\\\\n= \\$1.25T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1253000000000},"US_MILITARY_SPENDING_CURRENT_VS_PREWAR_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Ratio of current US military spending to pre-WW2 baseline in constant dollars ($886B / $29B)","displayName":"Current US Military Spending vs Pre-WW2 Baseline (Multiplier)","formatted":"30.551724137931036 x","formula":"US_MILITARY_SPENDING_2024 / US_MILITARY_SPENDING_1939","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nRatio_{US,2024:1939} \\\\\n= \\frac{Spending_{US,2024}}{Spending_{US,1939}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$886B}{\\$29B} \\\\\n= 30.6\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":30.551724137931036},"US_POLITICAL_REFORM_INVESTMENT_TOTAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/cost-of-change-analysis.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[17348201681.71765,36291868507.12682],"conservative":null,"description":"Total upper-bound investment for US political reform: (campaign spending + 2 years lobbying) × effort multiplier + Congress career advocacy. Represents cost to achieve democratic parity with incumbent interests.","displayName":"US Political Reform Investment (Total)","formatted":"$25.51B","formula":"(CAMPAIGN + LOBBYING×2) × EFFORT_MULTIPLIER + CONGRESS_CAREER","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{US,total} \\\\\n= (Cost_{campaign} \\\\\n+ Cost_{lobby} \\times 2) \\times \\mu_{effort} + Cost_{career}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":25510000000},"US_SENATE_TREATY_ADVOCACY_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Upper-bound advocacy cost to match career incentives for 67 senators (treaty ratification threshold)","displayName":"US Senate Treaty Advocacy Cost","formatted":"$670.00M","formula":"SENATORS_FOR_TREATY x POST_OFFICE_VALUE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{US,senate} \\\\\n= N_{senators,treaty} \\times V_{post-office} \\\\\n= 67 \\times \\$10M \\\\\n= \\$670M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":670000000},"US_VOTE_EXPECTED_VALUE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/unrepresentative-democracy.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.00033411251518627864,0.00034265876009278236],"conservative":null,"description":"Expected monetary value of a single vote in a US presidential election. Calculated as the probability of being decisive (1 in 60M) times federal spending per capita (~$20,300). Represents the expected influence over government resource allocation from casting one vote.","displayName":"Expected Value of a Vote (US)","formatted":"$0","formula":"US_VOTE_DECISIVE_PROBABILITY x US_FEDERAL_SPENDING_PER_CAPITA","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nEV_{vote} = P_{decisive} \\times Spend_{fed,pc} = 0 \\times \\$20.3K = \\$0.000338\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spend_{fed,pc} = \\frac{Spending_{US,fed}}{Pop_{US}} = \\frac{\\$6.8T}{335M} = \\$20.3K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":0.0003383084577114428},"VICTORY_BOND_ANNUAL_PAYOUT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/financial-plan.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Annual VICTORY Incentive Alignment Bond payout (treaty funding × bond percentage)","displayName":"Annual VICTORY Incentive Alignment Bond Payout","formatted":"2.72B USD/year","formula":"TREATY_FUNDING × BOND_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nPayout_{bond,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{bond} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":2720000000},"VICTORY_BOND_ANNUAL_RETURN_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-protocol-v1.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1.7963164784483523,4.302299580059953],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual return percentage for VICTORY Incentive Alignment Bondholders","displayName":"Annual Return Percentage for VICTORY Incentive Alignment Bondholders","formatted":"272.0%","formula":"PAYOUT ÷ CAMPAIGN_COST","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nr_{bond} = \\frac{Payout_{bond,ann}}{Cost_{campaign}} = \\frac{\\$2.72B}{\\$1B} = 272\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Payout_{bond,ann} = Funding_{treaty} \\times Pct_{bond} = \\$27.2B \\times 10\\% = \\$2.72B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Funding_{treaty} = Spending_{mil} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$2.72T \\times 1\\% = \\$27.2B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{campaign} = Budget_{viral,base} + Budget_{lobby,treaty} + Budget_{reserve} = \\$250M + \\$650M + \\$100M = \\$1B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":2.72},"VOTER_LIVES_SAVED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/nonprofit-coalition-strategy.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1.792023761107045,3.9302633130291302],"conservative":null,"description":"Average lives saved per verified voter if the treaty passes (total lives saved divided by the majority-of-humanity coordination target).","displayName":"Lives Saved per Verified Voter","formatted":"2.6029909969470952 lives","formula":"TOTAL_TIMELINE_SHIFT_LIVES_SAVED ÷ GLOBAL_REGISTERED_VOTERS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nLives_{voter} = \\frac{Lives_{max}}{N_{voters,global}} = \\frac{10.7B}{4.13B} = 2.6\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{max} = Deaths_{disease,daily} \\times T_{accel,max} \\times 338 = 150{,}000 \\times 212 \\times 338 = 10.7B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"lives","value":2.6029909969470952},"VOTER_SUFFERING_HOURS_PREVENTED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/nonprofit-coalition-strategy.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[329949.0212331594,633715.6994244249],"conservative":null,"description":"Average suffering hours prevented per verified voter if the treaty passes (total suffering hours divided by the majority-of-humanity coordination target).","displayName":"Suffering Hours Prevented per Verified Voter","formatted":"467,788.718 hours","formula":"TOTAL_TIMELINE_SHIFT_SUFFERING_HOURS ÷ GLOBAL_REGISTERED_VOTERS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nHours_{suffer,voter} = \\frac{Hours_{suffer,max}}{N_{voters,global}} = \\frac{1930T}{4.13B} = 468{,}000\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Hours_{suffer,max} = DALYs_{max} \\times Pct_{YLD} \\times 8760 = 565B \\times 0.39 \\times 8760 = 1930T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{max} = DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} \\times T_{accel,max} = 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% \\times 212 = 565B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel,max} = T_{accel} + T_{lag} = 204 + 8.2 = 212\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{accel} = T_{first,SQ} \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{k_{capacity}}\\right) = 222 \\times \\left(1 - \\frac{1}{12.3}\\right) = 204\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{first,SQ} = T_{queue,SQ} \\times 0.5 = 443 \\times 0.5 = 222\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"hours","value":467788.7180433564},"VOTE_2_CLAIMS_PAYOUT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[556.9126523129366,112307.1984210392],"conservative":null,"description":"Payout for a depositor who recruits 2 verified participants (earning 2 VOTE claims). CI range reflects participation uncertainty.","displayName":"VOTE Payout for 2 Claims","formatted":"$13.34K","formula":"2 × VOTE_TOKEN_VALUE","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nV_{2claims} = V_{vote} \\times 2 = \\$6.67K \\times 2 = \\$13.3K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{vote} = \\frac{Pool}{N_{voters,global}} = \\frac{\\$27.5T}{4.13B} = \\$6.67K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Pool = Assets_{invest} \\times R_{pool} \\times M_{pool} = \\$305T \\times 1\\% \\times 9.03 = \\$27.5T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } M_{pool} = (1 + r_{pool}) ^{Y_{50\\%} - Y_0}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{pool} = r_{VC,gross} + \\Delta r_{scale} + \\alpha_{crowd} + \\alpha_{home} = 17\\% + -2.5\\% + 0.5\\% + 0.8\\% = 15.8\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{50\\%} = Y_0 + \\frac{\\ln\\left(0.50 / \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_PCT\\_GDP}\\right)}{\\ln\\left(1 + \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_GROWTH} - \\text{GDP\\_GROWTH}\\right)}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{destruct:GDP} = \\frac{Cost_{destruct}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$13.2T}{\\$115T} = 11.5\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{destruct} = Spending_{mil} + Cost_{cyber} = \\$2.72T + \\$10.5T = \\$13.2T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":13341.465762766025},"VOTE_TOKEN_VALUE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[278.4563261564683,56153.5992105196],"conservative":null,"description":"Value of a single VOTE claim based on the modeled PRIZE pool size (investable assets × participation rate × horizon multiple). CI range reflects participation uncertainty (0.1%-10%).","displayName":"VOTE Point Value","formatted":"$6.67K","formula":"PRIZE_POOL_SIZE / GLOBAL_REGISTERED_VOTERS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nV_{vote} = \\frac{Pool}{N_{voters,global}} = \\frac{\\$27.5T}{4.13B} = \\$6.67K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Pool = Assets_{invest} \\times R_{pool} \\times M_{pool} = \\$305T \\times 1\\% \\times 9.03 = \\$27.5T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } M_{pool} = (1 + r_{pool}) ^{Y_{50\\%} - Y_0}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{pool} = r_{VC,gross} + \\Delta r_{scale} + \\alpha_{crowd} + \\alpha_{home} = 17\\% + -2.5\\% + 0.5\\% + 0.8\\% = 15.8\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{50\\%} = Y_0 + \\frac{\\ln\\left(0.50 / \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_PCT\\_GDP}\\right)}{\\ln\\left(1 + \\text{DESTRUCTIVE\\_GROWTH} - \\text{GDP\\_GROWTH}\\right)}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } r_{destruct:GDP} = \\frac{Cost_{destruct}}{GDP_{global}} = \\frac{\\$13.2T}{\\$115T} = 11.5\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{destruct} = Spending_{mil} + Cost_{cyber} = \\$2.72T + \\$10.5T = \\$13.2T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":6670.732881383013},"WAR_CHILDREN_KILLED_SINCE_1900":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[53240303.248949006,130702857.20738803],"conservative":null,"description":"Estimated children under 18 killed in wars, conflicts, genocides, and policy-induced famines since 1900","displayName":"Children Killed in Wars Since 1900","formatted":"102.30M deaths","formula":"WAR_DEATHS_SINCE_1900 × WAR_CHILD_DEATH_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDeaths_{war,child} \\\\\n= Deaths_{war,1900} \\times Pct_{war,child} \\\\\n= 310M \\times 33\\% \\\\\n= 102M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"deaths","value":102300000},"WAR_COSTS_CUMULATIVE_20YR_CURRENT_TRAJECTORY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[180253608047034.1,281148425506605.66],"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative global war costs over 20 years if current spending levels continue. The price tag of the status quo trajectory.","displayName":"Cumulative War Costs over 20 Years (Current Trajectory)","formatted":"$227.14T","formula":"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DIRECT_INDIRECT_WAR_COST × 20","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nCost_{war,20yr} = Cost_{war,total} \\times 20 = \\$11.4T \\times 20 = \\$227T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":227142000000000},"WAR_COSTS_SAVED_PEACE_TRAJECTORY_20YR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[10454709266727.979,16306608679383.13],"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative war costs saved over 20 years as treaty expands via IAB ratchet. Assumes war costs decline proportionally to spending cuts (e=1.0). Conservative: Pape research suggests e>1.0 due to terrorism feedback loops.","displayName":"War Costs Saved via Peace Trajectory (20yr)","formatted":"$13.17T","formula":"GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DIRECT_INDIRECT_WAR_COST × (0.01×3 + 0.02×4 + 0.05×5 + 0.10×8)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSavings_{war,20yr} = Cost_{war,total} \\times 1.16 = \\$11.4T \\times 1.16 = \\$13.2T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":13174236000000.002},"WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_GDP_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[119493.28075151701,922648.2380751406],"conservative":null,"description":"Counterfactual global GDP per capita if all wars abolished since 1900. Actual is $14,375. Mid-range counterfactual: $333,636 (23.2x richer). 8 non-overlapping channels at +2.6pp.","displayName":"GDP per Capita in Peace Timeline","formatted":"333,635.723 USD/person","formula":"GLOBAL_GDP_PER_CAPITA_1900 × (1 + ACTUAL_CAGR + WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_ANNUAL_GROWTH_BOOST)^124","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nGDP_{pc,peace} \\\\\n= GDP_{pc,1900} \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\bar{y}_{0}}{GDP_{pc,1900}}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + g_{war,penalty}\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$3.15K \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\$14.4K}{\\$3.15K}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + 2.6\\%\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$334K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":333635.72273938934},"WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_INCOME_MULTIPLE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[8.301080354209953,64.19732231477359],"conservative":null,"description":"How many times richer the average person would be if wars had been abolished in 1900. Counterfactual GDP per capita / actual GDP per capita.","displayName":"Peace Income Multiple (How Much Richer Without War)","formatted":"23.209441581870564 x","formula":"WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_GDP_PER_CAPITA / GLOBAL_AVG_INCOME_2025","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nM_{war,income} = \\frac{GDP_{pc,peace}}{\\bar{y}_{0}} = \\frac{\\$334K}{\\$14.4K} = 23.2\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\begin{gathered}\nGDP_{pc,peace} \\\\\n= GDP_{pc,1900} \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\bar{y}_{0}}{GDP_{pc,1900}}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + g_{war,penalty}\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$3.15K \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\$14.4K}{\\$3.15K}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + 2.6\\%\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$334K\n\\end{gathered}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":23.209441581870564},"WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_LOST_GDP_GLOBAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[839624240734144.9,7267692066198963],"conservative":null,"description":"Total annual global GDP lost to compound war effects since 1900. Lost GDP per capita × 8 billion people.","displayName":"Annual Lost GDP Global from War","formatted":"2554085.78B USD/year","formula":"WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_LOST_GDP_PER_CAPITA × GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nGDP_{lost,total} = GDP_{pc,lost} \\times Pop_{global} = \\$319K \\times 8B = \\$2550T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{pc,lost} = GDP_{pc,peace} - \\bar{y}_{0} = \\$334K - \\$14.4K = \\$319K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\begin{gathered}\nGDP_{pc,peace} \\\\\n= GDP_{pc,1900} \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\bar{y}_{0}}{GDP_{pc,1900}}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + g_{war,penalty}\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$3.15K \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\$14.4K}{\\$3.15K}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + 2.6\\%\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$334K\n\\end{gathered}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":2554085781915114.5},"WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_LOST_GDP_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[105124.86633280502,908295.0436255428],"conservative":null,"description":"Annual GDP per capita lost due to compound war effects since 1900","displayName":"Annual Lost GDP per Capita from War","formatted":"319,260.723 USD/person/year","formula":"WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_GDP_PER_CAPITA - GLOBAL_AVG_INCOME_2025","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nGDP_{pc,lost} = GDP_{pc,peace} - \\bar{y}_{0} = \\$334K - \\$14.4K = \\$319K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\begin{gathered}\nGDP_{pc,peace} \\\\\n= GDP_{pc,1900} \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\bar{y}_{0}}{GDP_{pc,1900}}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + g_{war,penalty}\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$3.15K \\times \\left(1 + \\left(\\frac{\\$14.4K}{\\$3.15K}\\right)^{1/124} - 1 + 2.6\\%\\right)^{124} \\\\[0.5em]\n= \\$334K\n\\end{gathered}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person/year","value":319260.72273938934},"WAR_LIFE_YEARS_LOST_SINCE_1900":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[4289679361.6106534,11405283337.094807],"conservative":null,"description":"Total life-years stolen by war since 1900 (deaths x avg years lost per death)","displayName":"Total Life-Years Lost to War Since 1900","formatted":"8.37B life-years","formula":"WAR_DEATHS_SINCE_1900 × WAR_AVG_YEARS_LIFE_LOST_PER_DEATH","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nYLL_{war,total} \\\\\n= Deaths_{war,1900} \\times YLL_{war} \\\\\n= 310M \\times 27 \\\\\n= 8.37B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"life-years","value":8370000000},"WAR_MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_PRIZE_OVERPAY_MULTIPLE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"How many times larger the prosecutor's medical-toolchain prize reserve is than the observed anchor costs listed here.","displayName":"War Medical Toolchain Prize Overpay Multiple","formatted":"341.1513859275053 x","formula":"WAR_MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_PRIZE_BUDGET / MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_OBSERVED_ANCHOR_COSTS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nm_{tool,overpay} = \\frac{C_{tool,prize}}{C_{tool,anchors}} = \\frac{\\$20T}{\\$58.6B} = 341\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{tool,anchors} = C_{tool,HGP} + C_{tool,CRISPR} + C_{tool,BRAIN} + C_{tool,PCORnet} + C_{tool,EHR} + C_{tool,OWS} = \\$2.7B + \\$3.1B + \\$4.5B + \\$325M + \\$30B + \\$18B = \\$58.6B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":341.1513859275053},"WAR_QALY_VALUE_LOST_SINCE_1900":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[579174679234945.2,1885683591692259.2],"conservative":null,"description":"Economic value of life-years destroyed by war since 1900, at $150K/QALY","displayName":"QALY Value of Life Lost to War Since 1900","formatted":"$1255.50T","formula":"WAR_LIFE_YEARS_LOST_SINCE_1900 × STANDARD_ECONOMIC_QALY_VALUE_USD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nV_{war,QALY} = YLL_{war,total} \\times Value_{QALY} = 8.37B \\times \\$150K = \\$1260T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLL_{war,total} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times YLL_{war} = 310M \\times 27 = 8.37B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1255500000000000},"WAR_TOTAL_COST_SINCE_1900":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[785869556473870,2117806833549536.8],"conservative":null,"description":"Total historical sunk cost of war since 1900: military spending ($170T) + property destruction ($45T) + environmental ($5T) + QALY value of lives ($1.26Q).","displayName":"Total Historical Cost of War Since 1900","formatted":"$1475.50T","formula":"CUMULATIVE_MILITARY_SPENDING_FED_ERA + WAR_PROPERTY_DESTRUCTION_SINCE_1900 + WAR_ENVIRONMENTAL_DESTRUCTION_SINCE_1900 + WAR_QALY_VALUE_LOST_SINCE_1900","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nC_{war,hist} = Spending_{mil,cum,fed} + D_{property} + D_{env} + V_{war,QALY} = \\$170T + \\$45T + \\$5T + \\$1260T = \\$1480T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,QALY} = YLL_{war,total} \\times Value_{QALY} = 8.37B \\times \\$150K = \\$1260T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } YLL_{war,total} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times YLL_{war} = 310M \\times 27 = 8.37B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1475500000000000},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_CONTROL_SENSITIVITY_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[1966,2031],"conservative":null,"description":"Counterfactual calendar year when biological aging becomes a treatable risk factor in the aggressive medical-redirect model. Uses the calculated aging pleading cutoff year.","displayName":"War-Redirect Biological Aging Control Year","formatted":"1,990 year","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nY_{aging,redirect} = Y_{aging,plead} = 1{,}990 = 1{,}990\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{aging,plead} = Y_{disease,plead} + T_{aging,lag} = 1{,}950 + 40 = 1{,}990\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"year","value":1990},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[1966,2031],"conservative":null,"description":"Aggressive prosecutor pleading cutoff year for presumptive aging-death plaintiffs. Calculated as the disease cutoff plus the geroscience lag assumption.","displayName":"War-Redirect Aging Pleading Cutoff Year","formatted":"1,990 year","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_DISEASE_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_LAG_AFTER_DISEASE_CONTROL_YEARS","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nY_{aging,plead} = Y_{disease,plead} + T_{aging,lag} = 1{,}950 + 40 = 1{,}990\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"year","value":1990},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_DISEASE_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[1926,1991],"conservative":null,"description":"Aggressive prosecutor pleading cutoff year for presumptive disease-death plaintiffs. Calculated as the 1900 redirect start year plus medical-toolchain bootstrap years plus the treaty-scale therapeutic queue-clearance years.","displayName":"War-Redirect Disease Pleading Cutoff Year","formatted":"1,950 year","formula":"round(WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_START_YEAR + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_TOOLCHAIN_BOOTSTRAP_YEARS + DFDA_QUEUE_CLEARANCE_YEARS)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nY_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"year","value":1950},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_EXCESS_MILITARY_SPENDING_ABOVE_1900_FREEZE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[132443244815829.12,136335051516747.62],"conservative":null,"description":"Dataset-derived aggregate: cumulative global military spending above a 1900 real-spending freeze, 1900-2024, calculated from knowledge/data/global-military-spending-1900-2024-constant-2023-usd.csv (Correlates of War NMC) as the sum of max(0, annual spending - 1900 baseline) across years. The stricter medical redirect pot, distinct from total cumulative military spending.","displayName":"Excess Military Spending Above 1900 Freeze","formatted":"$134.72T","formula":"for t=1900..2024: sum max(0, MILITARY_SPENDING_YEAR - WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_1900_FREEZE_BASELINE_ANNUAL)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nSpending_{mil,excess1900} \\\\\n= \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) \\\\\n= \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) \\\\\n= \\$135T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":"correlates-of-war-nmc","sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":"https://correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/national-material-capabilities/","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":134715100378699.22},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_EXCESS_MILITARY_TRIAL_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[22443.88907745716,44091.74233598829],"conservative":null,"description":"Clinical-trial years funded by military spending above a 1900 real-spending freeze. This is the literal 1900-freeze medical redirect capacity, not total cumulative military spending.","displayName":"Excess Military Spending Above 1900 Freeze in Clinical Trial Years","formatted":"29,936.689 years","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_EXCESS_MILITARY_SPENDING_ABOVE_1900_FREEZE / GLOBAL_GOVERNMENT_CLINICAL_TRIALS_SPENDING_ANNUAL","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nYears_{excess1900 \\to trials,gov} = \\frac{Spending_{mil,excess1900}}{Spending_{trials,gov}} = \\frac{\\$135T}{\\$4.5B} = 29{,}900\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":29936.68897304427},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_INFECTIOUS_DISEASE_CONTROL_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[1926,1991],"conservative":null,"description":"Counterfactual calendar year for practical infectious-disease control in the aggressive medical-redirect model. Uses the calculated disease pleading cutoff year.","displayName":"War-Redirect Infectious Disease Control Year","formatted":"1,950 year","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_DISEASE_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nY_{infectious,redirect} = Y_{disease,plead} = 1{,}950 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"year","value":1950},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_NET_TRIAL_BUDGET":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative military spending since the Federal Reserve era after reserving the aggressive prosecutor's medical-toolchain prize budget.","displayName":"War Trial Redirect Net Trial Budget After Toolchain Reserve","formatted":"$150.00T","formula":"CUMULATIVE_MILITARY_SPENDING_FED_ERA - WAR_MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_PRIZE_BUDGET","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nB_{trials,net} \\\\\n= Spending_{mil,cum,fed} - C_{tool,prize} \\\\\n= \\$170T - \\$20T \\\\\n= \\$150T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":150000000000000},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_NONAGING_DISEASE_CONTROL_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[1926,1991],"conservative":null,"description":"Counterfactual calendar year for practical control of major non-aging disease burden in the aggressive medical-redirect model. Uses the calculated disease pleading cutoff year.","displayName":"War-Redirect Major Non-Aging Disease Control Year","formatted":"1,950 year","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_DISEASE_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nY_{disease,redirect} = Y_{disease,plead} = 1{,}950 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"year","value":1950},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_PATIENT_SLOTS_FUNDED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[65239753911.206116,668082298224.2614],"conservative":null,"description":"Patient-slots funded by the net redirected war budget at pragmatic trial cost per patient. Patient-slots are repeated experimental opportunities, not unique people.","displayName":"War Trial Redirect Patient Slots Funded","formatted":"161.46B patient-slots","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_NET_TRIAL_BUDGET / DFDA_PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_COST_PER_PATIENT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{slots,war} = \\frac{B_{trials,net}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$150T}{\\$929} = 161B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } B_{trials,net} = Spending_{mil,cum,fed} - C_{tool,prize} = \\$170T - \\$20T = \\$150T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"patient-slots","value":161463939720.12918},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_PATIENT_SLOTS_PER_LIVING_HUMAN":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[7.986529736696173,85.31954236967228],"conservative":null,"description":"Patient-slots funded per living human, used to avoid implying hundreds of billions of unique patients. It means repeated trial opportunities across time and indications.","displayName":"War Trial Redirect Patient Slots Per Living Human","formatted":"20.18299246501615 patient-slots/person","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_PATIENT_SLOTS_FUNDED / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{slots,pc} = \\frac{N_{slots,war}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{161B}{8B} = 20.2\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{slots,war} = \\frac{B_{trials,net}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$150T}{\\$929} = 161B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } B_{trials,net} = Spending_{mil,cum,fed} - C_{tool,prize} = \\$170T - \\$20T = \\$150T\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"patient-slots/person","value":20.18299246501615},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_AGING_PLAINTIFFS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[-348922159.99768925,2697128060.997609],"conservative":null,"description":"Aggressive prosecutor aging intake count after the aging cutoff year. This overlaps with the broader disease-death plaintiff class because the annual-deaths parameter covers all disease and aging deaths; it is an intake class, not an additive damages line.","displayName":"War Trial Redirect Post-Cutoff Aging Plaintiffs","formatted":"1.78B plaintiffs","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_AGING_YEARS * GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DEATHS_CURABLE_DISEASES * EVENTUALLY_AVOIDABLE_DEATH_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{plaintiffs,aging} = T_{post,aging} \\times Deaths_{curable,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,death} = 35 \\times 55M \\times 92.6\\% = 1.78B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,aging} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{aging,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{aging,plead} = Y_{disease,plead} + T_{aging,lag} = 1{,}950 + 40 = 1{,}990\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"plaintiffs","value":1783085302.091402},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_AGING_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[-6,59],"conservative":null,"description":"Inclusive number of years in the aggressive prosecutor aging-death intake window.","displayName":"War Trial Redirect Post-Cutoff Aging Years","formatted":"35 years","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_PLEADING_END_YEAR - WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR + 1","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{post,aging} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{aging,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{aging,plead} = Y_{disease,plead} + T_{aging,lag} = 1{,}950 + 40 = 1{,}990\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":35},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_DISEASE_DALYS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[90567719058.0023,254664875895.50497],"conservative":null,"description":"Aggressive prosecutor estimate of post-cutoff avoidable disease DALYs. This measures disease-years, disability, and suffering after the disease cutoff, separate from the death-plaintiff VSL count.","displayName":"War Trial Redirect Post-Cutoff Disease DALYs","formatted":"200.08B DALYs","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_DISEASE_YEARS * GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DALY_BURDEN * EVENTUALLY_AVOIDABLE_DALY_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nDALYs_{post,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} = 75 \\times 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% = 200B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,disease} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{disease,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"DALYs","value":200076065065.84042},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_DISEASE_PLAINTIFFS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[1813224267.827481,4619750777.528809],"conservative":null,"description":"Aggressive prosecutor pleading count for post-cutoff disease-death plaintiffs: inclusive years from the disease cutoff through the pleading end year, multiplied by annual disease deaths and the eventually avoidable death share.","displayName":"War Trial Redirect Post-Cutoff Disease Plaintiffs","formatted":"3.82B plaintiffs","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_DISEASE_YEARS * GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DEATHS_CURABLE_DISEASES * EVENTUALLY_AVOIDABLE_DEATH_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{plaintiffs,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times Deaths_{curable,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,death} = 75 \\times 55M \\times 92.6\\% = 3.82B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,disease} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{disease,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"plaintiffs","value":3820897075.910147},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_DISEASE_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[34,99],"conservative":null,"description":"Inclusive number of years in the aggressive prosecutor disease-death plaintiff window.","displayName":"War Trial Redirect Post-Cutoff Disease Years","formatted":"75 years","formula":"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_PLEADING_END_YEAR - WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_DISEASE_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR + 1","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nT_{post,disease} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{disease,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":75},"WILLING_TRIAL_PARTICIPANTS_GLOBAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[842593463.6143123,1344538566.2502253],"conservative":null,"description":"Global chronic disease patients willing to participate in trials (2.4B × 44.8%)","displayName":"Global Patients Willing to Participate in Clinical Trials","formatted":"1.08B people","formula":"CURRENT_DISEASE_PATIENTS_GLOBAL × PATIENT_WILLINGNESS_TRIAL_PARTICIPATION_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nN_{willing} \\\\\n= N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} \\\\\n= 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% \\\\\n= 1.08B\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"people","value":1075200000},"WISHONIA_DISEASE_CURE_FRACTION_15YR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Wishonia disease-cure fraction over 15 years under full implementation. Uses full trial-capacity scaling and applies an upper bound of 100% of untreated disease classes.","displayName":"Wishonia Disease Cure Fraction (15yr, Full Implementation)","formatted":"100.0%","formula":"min(1.0, NEW_DISEASE_FIRST_TREATMENTS_PER_YEAR * min(TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER * (WISHONIA_MILITARY_REALLOCATION_PHYSICAL_MAX_SHARE / 0.01), MAX_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER_PHYSICAL) * 15 / DISEASES_WITHOUT_EFFECTIVE_TREATMENT)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nf_{cure,15,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{15}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":1},"WISHONIA_DISEASE_CURE_FRACTION_20YR_FULL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Wishonia disease-cure fraction over 20 years under full implementation. Uses full trial-capacity scaling and applies an upper bound of 100% of untreated disease classes.","displayName":"Wishonia Disease Cure Fraction (20yr, Full Implementation)","formatted":"100.0%","formula":"min(1.0, NEW_DISEASE_FIRST_TREATMENTS_PER_YEAR × min(TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER × (WISHONIA_MILITARY_REALLOCATION_PHYSICAL_MAX_SHARE ÷ 0.01), MAX_TRIAL_CAPACITY_MULTIPLIER_PHYSICAL) × 20 ÷ DISEASES_WITHOUT_EFFECTIVE_TREATMENT)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nf_{cure,20,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{20}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":1},"WISHONIA_EXTRA_HALE_GAIN_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[8.464270296436176,20.01572438093834],"conservative":null,"description":"Additional healthy years at year 15 from optimal-governance public-health improvements plus partial realization of longer-run longevity gains. This removes the implicit cap at today's life expectancy and lets Wishonia exceed it for non-arbitrary reasons.","displayName":"Wishonia Extra HALE Gain at Year 15","formatted":"11.099999999999994 years","formula":"WISHONIA_DISEASE_CURE_FRACTION_15YR × (BEST_PRACTICE_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_GAIN + LIFE_EXTENSION_YEARS × HALE_LONGEVITY_REALIZATION_SHARE_YEAR_15)","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\Delta HALE_{wish,extra,15} = f_{cure,15,wish} \\times (\\Delta LE_{best} + T_{extend} \\times \\rho_{HALE,15})\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{15}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta LE_{best} = \\max\\left(LE_{CH}, LE_{SG}\\right) - LE_{global}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":11.099999999999994},"WISHONIA_HALE_GAIN_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[23.780380153055866,36.53709437858005],"conservative":null,"description":"HALE improvement at year 15 under Wishonia Trajectory. It includes closing the current HALE gap, reaching today's best-practice life expectancy through optimal governance/public health, and a conservative partial realization of longer-run longevity gains.","displayName":"Wishonia HALE Gain at Year 15","formatted":"26.799999999999997 years","formula":"WISHONIA_DISEASE_CURE_FRACTION_15YR × GLOBAL_HALE_GAP + WISHONIA_EXTRA_HALE_GAIN_YEAR_15","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\Delta HALE_{wish,15} = f_{cure,15,wish} \\times \\Delta_{HALE} + \\Delta HALE_{wish,extra,15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{15}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{wish,extra,15} = f_{cure,15,wish} \\times (\\Delta LE_{best} + T_{extend} \\times \\rho_{HALE,15})\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta LE_{best} = \\max\\left(LE_{CH}, LE_{SG}\\right) - LE_{global}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":26.799999999999997},"WISHONIA_HALE_VALUE_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2471976.0550837615,7281192.544493104],"conservative":null,"description":"Economic value of Wishonia Trajectory HALE gains at year 15 using the standard QALY value.","displayName":"Wishonia HALE Value Per Capita","formatted":"4.02M USD/person","formula":"WISHONIA_HALE_GAIN_YEAR_15 × STANDARD_ECONOMIC_QALY_VALUE_USD","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nValue_{HALE,wish} = \\Delta HALE_{wish,15} \\times Value_{QALY} = 26.8 \\times \\$150K = \\$4.02M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{wish,15} = f_{cure,15,wish} \\times \\Delta_{HALE} + \\Delta HALE_{wish,extra,15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{15}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{wish,extra,15} = f_{cure,15,wish} \\times (\\Delta LE_{best} + T_{extend} \\times \\rho_{HALE,15})\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta LE_{best} = \\max\\left(LE_{CH}, LE_{SG}\\right) - LE_{global}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":4019999.9999999995},"WISHONIA_MILITARY_REALLOCATION_PHYSICAL_MAX_SHARE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Maximum physically demonstrated military reallocation share, anchored to post-WW2 US demobilization.","displayName":"Wishonia Military Reallocation Physical Max Share","formatted":"87.6%","formula":"POST_WW2_MILITARY_CUT_PCT","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\ns_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.876056338028169},"WISHONIA_PERSONAL_UPSIDE_BLEND":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/call-to-action/your-personal-benefits.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[16274480.298030905,293665409.20672673],"conservative":null,"description":"Blended personal upside under Wishonia Trajectory: lifetime income gain plus valued healthy-life gains.","displayName":"Wishonia Personal Upside (Blended)","formatted":"51.23M USD/person","formula":"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_LIFETIME_INCOME_GAIN_PER_CAPITA + WISHONIA_HALE_VALUE_PER_CAPITA","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nUpside_{blend,wish} = \\Delta Y_{lifetime,wish} + Value_{HALE,wish} = \\$47.2M + \\$4.02M = \\$51.2M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta Y_{lifetime,wish} = Y_{cum,wish} - Y_{cum,earth} = \\$48.3M - \\$1.1M = \\$47.2M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,wish} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,wish})((1+g_{pc,wish})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,wish}} + \\bar{y}_{wish,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{wish,20} = \\frac{GDP_{wish,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$10700T}{9.2B} = \\$1.16M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{wish,20}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{17}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{20}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{remaining} = LE_{global} - Age_{median} = 79 - 30.5 = 48.5\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,earth} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Value_{HALE,wish} = \\Delta HALE_{wish,15} \\times Value_{QALY} = 26.8 \\times \\$150K = \\$4.02M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{wish,15} = f_{cure,15,wish} \\times \\Delta_{HALE} + \\Delta HALE_{wish,extra,15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{15}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{wish,extra,15} = f_{cure,15,wish} \\times (\\Delta LE_{best} + T_{extend} \\times \\rho_{HALE,15})\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta LE_{best} = \\max\\left(LE_{CH}, LE_{SG}\\right) - LE_{global}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/person","value":51225867.48361206},"WISHONIA_PROJECTED_HALE_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-protocol-v1.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[84.87778769604115,102.30120437150516],"conservative":null,"description":"Projected global HALE at year 15 under Wishonia Trajectory. Full implementation closes the entire disease gap, pushing HALE toward life expectancy.","displayName":"Wishonia Projected HALE at Year 15","formatted":"90.1 years","formula":"GLOBAL_HALE_CURRENT + WISHONIA_HALE_GAIN_YEAR_15","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nHALE_{wish,15} = HALE_{0} + \\Delta HALE_{wish,15} = 63.3 + 26.8 = 90.1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{wish,15} = f_{cure,15,wish} \\times \\Delta_{HALE} + \\Delta HALE_{wish,extra,15}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{15}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta HALE_{wish,extra,15} = f_{cure,15,wish} \\times (\\Delta LE_{best} + T_{extend} \\times \\rho_{HALE,15})\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\Delta LE_{best} = \\max\\left(LE_{CH}, LE_{SG}\\right) - LE_{global}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":90.1},"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_AVG_INCOME_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-protocol-v1.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[233795.42404750193,1872303.3964954303],"conservative":null,"description":"Average income (GDP per capita) at year 15 under the Wishonia Trajectory.","displayName":"Wishonia Trajectory Average Income at Year 15","formatted":"$503.79K","formula":"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_15 / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2040_PROJECTED","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\bar{y}_{wish,15} = \\frac{GDP_{wish,15}}{Pop_{2040}} = \\frac{\\$4480T}{8.9B} = \\$504K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{wish,15}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{12}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{15}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":503789.8257135314},"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_AVG_INCOME_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[395118.3791840341,6220302.783575157],"conservative":null,"description":"Average income (GDP per capita) at year 20 under the Wishonia Trajectory.","displayName":"Wishonia Trajectory Average Income at Year 20","formatted":"$1.16M","formula":"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20 / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2045_PROJECTED","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\bar{y}_{wish,20} = \\frac{GDP_{wish,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$10700T}{9.2B} = \\$1.16M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{wish,20}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{17}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{20}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1161818.358400575},"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_CAGR_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.18847721731264658,0.36409644028780025],"conservative":null,"description":"Compound annual growth rate implied by Wishonia Trajectory GDP trajectory over 20 years.","displayName":"Wishonia Trajectory CAGR (20 Years)","formatted":"25.4%","formula":"(WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20 ÷ GLOBAL_GDP_2025)^(1/20) - 1","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\ng_{wish,CAGR} = \\left(\\frac{GDP_{wish,20}}{GDP_{global}}\\right)^{\\frac{1}{20}} - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{wish,20}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{17}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{20}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.2543288493473528},"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_CUMULATIVE_LIFETIME_INCOME":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[14857232.094786325,287598230.0412925],"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative per-capita income over an average remaining lifespan under Wishonia Trajectory. Uses implied per-capita CAGR for years 1-20, then current-trajectory per-capita growth from the year-20 level. Conservative: assumes no further acceleration beyond year 20.","displayName":"Wishonia Trajectory Cumulative Lifetime Income (Per Capita)","formatted":"$48.30M","formula":"Phase 1: y0*(1+g_pc,wish)*((1+g_pc,wish)^20-1)/g_pc,wish + Phase 2: y20*(1+g_pc,base)*((1+g_pc,base)^(T-20)-1)/g_pc,base","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nY_{cum,wish} \\\\\n= \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,wish})((1+g_{pc,wish})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,wish}} \\\\\n+ \\bar{y}_{wish,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":48302885.96346817},"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_GDP_VS_CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_MULTIPLIER_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[12.49309930519262,100.04846055975138],"conservative":null,"description":"Wishonia Trajectory GDP at year 15 as a multiple of current trajectory GDP at year 15.","displayName":"Wishonia Trajectory vs Current Trajectory GDP Multiplier (Year 15)","formatted":"26.92052826622498 x","formula":"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_15 / CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_15","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{wish:base,15} = \\frac{GDP_{wish,15}}{GDP_{base,15}} = \\frac{\\$4480T}{\\$167T} = 26.9\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{wish,15}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{12}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,15,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{15}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,15} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{15}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":26.92052826622498},"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_GDP_VS_CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_MULTIPLIER_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[19.290341264439483,303.68560356798565],"conservative":null,"description":"Wishonia Trajectory GDP at year 20 as a multiple of current trajectory GDP at year 20.","displayName":"Wishonia Trajectory vs Current Trajectory GDP Multiplier (Year 20)","formatted":"56.721918800945424 x","formula":"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20 ÷ CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{wish:base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{wish,20}}{GDP_{base,20}} = \\frac{\\$10700T}{\\$188T} = 56.7\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{wish,20}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{17}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{20}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":56.721918800945424},"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-protocol-v1.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[2080779274022767.2,16663500228809328],"conservative":null,"description":"Projected global GDP at year 15 under the Wishonia Trajectory. Applies all Wishonia policy channels including military reallocation, disease-burden recovery, and Political Dysfunction Tax elimination. 3-year ramp at 50% intensity + 12 years full.","displayName":"Wishonia Trajectory GDP at Year 15","formatted":"$4483.73T","formula":"GLOBAL_GDP_2025 * (1 + g_ramp)^3 * (1 + g_full)^12, where years 1-3 use 50% of military and non-health reallocation intensity, and years 4-15 use 100%; both include disease-burden recovery","latex":"GDP_{wish,15}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{12}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":4483729448850429.5},"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3635089088493114,57226785608891440],"conservative":null,"description":"Projected global GDP at year 20 under the Wishonia Trajectory. Model applies all Wishonia policy channels and redirects the full Political Dysfunction Tax non-health opportunity pool to highest-marginal-value uses. Health recovery is modeled separately through disease burden removal to avoid overlap. Military and non-health reallocation effects are ramped at 50% intensity for the first 3 years, then 100% for years 4-20, reflecting implementation lag. Military reallocation uses a physically demonstrated upper bound (post-WW2 demobilization) rather than an arbitrary policy cap.","displayName":"Wishonia Trajectory GDP at Year 20","formatted":"$10688.73T","formula":"GLOBAL_GDP_2025 × (1 + g_ramp)^3 × (1 + g_full)^17, where years 1-3 use 50% of military and non-health reallocation intensity, and years 4-20 use 100%; both include disease-burden recovery","latex":"GDP_{wish,20}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{17}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":10688728897285288},"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_LIFETIME_INCOME_GAIN_PER_CAPITA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[13865587.505326735,286384216.66223365],"conservative":null,"description":"Lifetime per-capita income gain from Wishonia Trajectory vs current trajectory. Cumulative Wishonia income minus cumulative current trajectory income over average remaining lifespan.","displayName":"Wishonia Trajectory Lifetime Income Gain (Per Capita)","formatted":"$47.21M","formula":"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_CUMULATIVE_LIFETIME_INCOME - CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_CUMULATIVE_LIFETIME_INCOME","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\Delta Y_{lifetime,wish} = Y_{cum,wish} - Y_{cum,earth} = \\$48.3M - \\$1.1M = \\$47.2M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,wish} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,wish})((1+g_{pc,wish})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,wish}} + \\bar{y}_{wish,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{wish,20} = \\frac{GDP_{wish,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$10700T}{9.2B} = \\$1.16M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{wish,20}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{17}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{20}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{remaining} = LE_{global} - Age_{median} = 79 - 30.5 = 48.5\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,earth} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":47205867.48361206},"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_LIFETIME_INCOME_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[14.982416333601133,236.89873192583784],"conservative":null,"description":"Ratio of cumulative lifetime income under Wishonia Trajectory vs current trajectory. Income-agnostic: applies as a multiplier to any individual's lifetime earnings.","displayName":"Wishonia Trajectory Lifetime Income Multiplier","formatted":"44.03105950394171 x","formula":"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_CUMULATIVE_LIFETIME_INCOME / CURRENT_TRAJECTORY_CUMULATIVE_LIFETIME_INCOME","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{lifetime,wish:earth} = \\frac{Y_{cum,wish}}{Y_{cum,earth}} = \\frac{\\$48.3M}{\\$1.1M} = 44\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,wish} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,wish})((1+g_{pc,wish})^{20}-1)}{g_{pc,wish}} + \\bar{y}_{wish,20} \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}-20}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{0} = \\frac{GDP_{global}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$115T}{8B} = \\$14.4K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{wish,20} = \\frac{GDP_{wish,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$10700T}{9.2B} = \\$1.16M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{wish,20}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{17}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{20}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } \\bar{y}_{base,20} = \\frac{GDP_{base,20}}{Pop_{2045}} = \\frac{\\$188T}{9.2B} = \\$20.5K\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{base,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{remaining} = LE_{global} - Age_{median} = 79 - 30.5 = 48.5\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{cum,earth} = \\bar{y}_0 \\cdot \\frac{(1+g_{pc,base})((1+g_{pc,base})^{T_{remaining}}-1)}{g_{pc,base}}\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":44.03105950394171},"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_VS_TREATY_TRAJECTORY_GDP_MULTIPLIER_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[8.391410624974428,28.002009386320026],"conservative":null,"description":"Year-20 GDP multiplier from adding non-health dysfunction-capital reallocation on top of the Treaty Trajectory channels.","displayName":"Wishonia Trajectory vs Treaty Trajectory GDP Multiplier (Year 20)","formatted":"11.63439875447449 x","formula":"WISHONIA_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20 ÷ TREATY_TRAJECTORY_GDP_YEAR_20","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\nk_{wish,full:core,20} = \\frac{GDP_{wish,20}}{GDP_{treaty,20}} = \\frac{\\$10700T}{\\$919T} = 11.6\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{wish,20}=GDP_0(1+g_{ramp})^{3}(1+g_{full})^{17}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } s_{mil,max} = Cut_{WW2} = 87.6\\% = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cut_{WW2} = 1 - \\frac{Spending_{US,1947}}{Spending_{US,1945}} = 1 - \\frac{\\$176B}{\\$1.42T} = 87.6\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,wish} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times \\left(\\frac{s_{mil,max}}{0.01}\\right), \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) \\times \\frac{20}{N_{untreated}}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity,max} = \\frac{N_{willing}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{1.08B}{1.9M} = 566\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{willing} = N_{patients} \\times Pct_{willing} = 2.4B \\times 44.8\\% = 1.08B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } GDP_{treaty,20} = GDP_{global} \\times (1 + g_{base} + g_{redirect,treaty,20} + g_{peace,treaty,20} + g_{cyber,treaty,20} + g_{health,treaty,20})^{20}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{redirect,treaty,20} = \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\Delta g_{30\\%} \\times m_{spillover} \\times 1.67 = 5.8\\% \\times 5.5\\% \\times 2 \\times 1.67 = 1.06\\%\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{peace,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Benefit_{peace,soc}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\left(\\frac{\\bar{s}_{treaty,20}}{Reduce_{treaty}}\\right) \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Benefit_{peace,soc} = Cost_{war,total} \\times Reduce_{treaty} = \\$11.4T \\times 1\\% = \\$114B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,total} = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} = \\$7.66T + \\$3.7T = \\$11.4T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,direct} = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} = \\$2.45T + \\$1.88T + \\$616B + \\$2.72T = \\$7.66T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{life,conflict} = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} + Cost_{terror,human} = \\$2.34T + \\$27B + \\$83B = \\$2.45T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{combat,human} = Deaths_{combat} \\times VSL = 234{,}000 \\times \\$10M = \\$2.34T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{state,human} = Deaths_{state} \\times VSL = 2{,}700 \\times \\$10M = \\$27B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{terror,human} = Deaths_{terror} \\times VSL = 8{,}300 \\times \\$10M = \\$83B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Damage_{infra,total} = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} = \\$298B + \\$234B + \\$422B + \\$166B + \\$487B + \\$268B = \\$1.88T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Disruption_{trade} = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} = \\$57.4B + \\$125B + \\$247B + \\$187B = \\$616B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Cost_{war,indirect} = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} = \\$100B + \\$2.72T + \\$300B + \\$232B + \\$150B + \\$200B = \\$3.7T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{cyber,treaty,20} = \\left(\\frac{Cost_{cyber}}{GDP_{global}}\\right) \\times \\bar{s}_{treaty,20} \\times \\varepsilon_{conflict}\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } g_{health,treaty,20} = ((1 + f_{cure,20,treaty} \\times d_{disease} + \\left(\\frac{Loss_{lag}}{GDP_{global}}\\right))^{\\frac{1}{20}}) - 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } f_{cure,20,treaty} = \\min\\left(1.0, Treatments_{new,ann} \\times (3 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 1, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 4 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 2, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 5 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 5, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL}) + 8 \\times min(\\text{TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER} \\times 10, \\text{MAX\\_TRIAL\\_CAPACITY\\_MULTIPLIER\\_PHYSICAL})) / N_{untreated}\\right)\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Loss_{lag} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times (LE_{global} - Age_{death,delay}) \\times Value_{QALY} = 102M \\times (79 - 62) \\times \\$150K = \\$259T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"calculated","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"x","value":11.63439875447449},"ADAPTABLE_TRIAL_PATIENTS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Patients enrolled in ADAPTABLE trial (PCORnet 2016-2019). Enrolled across 40 clinical sites. Precise count from trial completion records.","displayName":"ADAPTABLE Trial Patients Enrolled","formatted":"15,076 patients","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"pragmatic-trials-cost-advantage","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://commonfund.nih.gov/hcscollaboratory","stdError":null,"unit":"patients","value":15076},"ALLOCATION_DECISION_SPREAD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/wishocracy.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.05,0.12],"conservative":null,"description":"Return spread between the best and worst major asset-class sectors (biotech vs. coal, growth vs. value, emerging vs. declining). The accuracy advantage of crowds over experts is multiplied by this spread to estimate the allocation alpha from wishocratic decision-making.","displayName":"Allocation Decision Return Spread","formatted":"0.08 percent","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.08},"ANNUAL_WORKING_HOURS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/recruitment-and-propaganda-plan.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Standard annual working hours globally. Approximately 40 hours/week x 50 weeks. ILO estimates range from 1,800-2,200 across countries; 2,000 is conventional.","displayName":"Annual Working Hours","formatted":"2,000 hours/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"hours/year","value":2000},"APPROVED_DRUG_DISEASE_PAIRINGS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1500,2000],"conservative":null,"description":"Unique approved drug-disease pairings (FDA-approved uses, midpoint of 1,500-2,000 range)","displayName":"Approved Drug-Disease Pairings","formatted":"1,750 pairings","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"pairings","value":1750},"AVG_LIFE_EXTENSION_PER_BENEFICIARY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[8,18],"conservative":null,"description":"Average years of life extension per person saved by pharmaceutical interventions. Assumption used to convert life-years saved to approximate lives saved. Based on Lichtenberg's methodology where life-years are calculated from Years of Life Lost (YLL) reductions.","displayName":"Average Life Extension per Beneficiary","formatted":"12 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"lichtenberg-life-years-saved-2019","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://www.nber.org/papers/w25483","stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":12},"CAMPAIGN_CELEBRITY_ENDORSEMENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[10500000,19500000],"conservative":null,"description":"Celebrity and influencer endorsements","displayName":"Celebrity and Influencer Endorsements","formatted":"$15.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":15000000},"CAMPAIGN_COMMUNITY_ORGANIZING":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[21000000,39000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Community organizing and ambassador program budget","displayName":"Community Organizing and Ambassador Program Budget","formatted":"$30.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":30000000},"CAMPAIGN_CONTINGENCY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[30000000,80000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Contingency fund for unexpected costs","displayName":"Contingency Fund for Unexpected Costs","formatted":"$50.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":50000000},"CAMPAIGN_DEFENSE_CONVERSION":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[40000000,70000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Defense industry conversion program","displayName":"Defense Industry Conversion Program","formatted":"$50.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":50000000},"CAMPAIGN_DEFENSE_LOBBYIST_BUDGET":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[35000000,65000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Budget for co-opting defense industry lobbyists","displayName":"Budget for Co-Opting Defense Industry Lobbyists","formatted":"$50.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":50000000},"CAMPAIGN_HEALTHCARE_ALIGNMENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[24500000,45500000],"conservative":null,"description":"Healthcare industry alignment and partnerships","displayName":"Healthcare Industry Alignment and Partnerships","formatted":"$35.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":35000000},"CAMPAIGN_INFRASTRUCTURE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[14000000,26000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Campaign operational infrastructure","displayName":"Campaign Operational Infrastructure","formatted":"$20.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":20000000},"CAMPAIGN_LEGAL_AI_BUDGET":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[35000000,65000000],"conservative":null,"description":"AI-assisted legal work budget","displayName":"AI-Assisted Legal Work Budget","formatted":"$50.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":50000000},"CAMPAIGN_LEGAL_DEFENSE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[14000000,26000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Legal defense fund","displayName":"Legal Defense Fund","formatted":"$20.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":20000000},"CAMPAIGN_LEGAL_WORK":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[50000000,80000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Legal drafting and compliance work","displayName":"Legal Drafting and Compliance Work","formatted":"$60.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":60000000},"CAMPAIGN_LOBBYING_EU":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[28000000,52000000],"conservative":null,"description":"EU lobbying campaign budget","displayName":"EU Lobbying Campaign Budget","formatted":"$40.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":40000000},"CAMPAIGN_LOBBYING_G20_MILLIONS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"G20 countries lobbying budget","displayName":"G20 Countries Lobbying Budget","formatted":"$35.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":35000000},"CAMPAIGN_LOBBYING_US":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[35000000,65000000],"conservative":null,"description":"US lobbying campaign budget","displayName":"US Lobbying Campaign Budget","formatted":"$50.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":50000000},"CAMPAIGN_MEDIA_BUDGET_MAX":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[700000000,1300000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Maximum mass media campaign budget","displayName":"Maximum Mass Media Campaign Budget","formatted":"$1.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":1000000000},"CAMPAIGN_MEDIA_BUDGET_MIN":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[350000000,650000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Minimum mass media campaign budget","displayName":"Minimum Mass Media Campaign Budget","formatted":"$500.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":500000000},"CAMPAIGN_OPPOSITION_RESEARCH":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[17500000,32500000],"conservative":null,"description":"Opposition research and rapid response","displayName":"Opposition Research and Rapid Response","formatted":"$25.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":25000000},"CAMPAIGN_PHASE1_BUDGET":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/ai-coordination-army.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[140000000,260000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Phase 1 campaign budget (Foundation, Year 1)","displayName":"Phase 1 Campaign Budget","formatted":"$200.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":200000000},"CAMPAIGN_PHASE2_BUDGET":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[350000000,650000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Phase 2 campaign budget (Scale & Momentum, Years 2-3)","displayName":"Phase 2 Campaign Budget","formatted":"$500.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":500000000},"CAMPAIGN_PILOT_PROGRAMS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[21000000,39000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Pilot program testing in small countries","displayName":"Pilot Program Testing in Small Countries","formatted":"$30.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":30000000},"CAMPAIGN_PLATFORM_DEVELOPMENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[25000000,50000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Voting platform and technology development","displayName":"Voting Platform and Technology Development","formatted":"$35.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":35000000},"CAMPAIGN_REGULATORY_NAVIGATION":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[14000000,26000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Regulatory compliance and navigation","displayName":"Regulatory Compliance and Navigation","formatted":"$20.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":20000000},"CAMPAIGN_SCALING_PREP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[21000000,39000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Scaling preparation and blueprints","displayName":"Scaling Preparation and Blueprints","formatted":"$30.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":30000000},"CAMPAIGN_STAFF_BUDGET":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[28000000,52000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Campaign core team staff budget","displayName":"Campaign Core Team Staff Budget","formatted":"$40.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":40000000},"CAMPAIGN_SUPER_PAC_BUDGET":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/legal/election-law.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[21000000,39000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Super PAC campaign expenditures","displayName":"Super PAC Campaign Expenditures","formatted":"$30.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":30000000},"CAMPAIGN_TECH_PARTNERSHIPS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[17500000,32500000],"conservative":null,"description":"Tech industry partnerships and infrastructure","displayName":"Tech Industry Partnerships and Infrastructure","formatted":"$25.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":25000000},"CAMPAIGN_TREATY_IMPLEMENTATION":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[30000000,55000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Post-victory treaty implementation support","displayName":"Post-Victory Treaty Implementation Support","formatted":"$40.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":40000000},"CAMPAIGN_VIRAL_CONTENT_BUDGET":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/campaign-budget.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[28000000,52000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Viral marketing content creation budget","displayName":"Viral Marketing Content Creation Budget","formatted":"$40.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":40000000},"CAREGIVER_COST_ANNUAL":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-disease.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Annual cost of unpaid caregiving (replacement cost method)","displayName":"Annual Cost of Unpaid Caregiving","formatted":"6,000 USD/year","formula":"HOURS_PER_MONTH × MONTHS_PER_YEAR × VALUE_PER_HOUR","latex":null,"sourceRef":"unpaid-caregiver-hours-economic-value","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://www.aarp.org/caregiving/financial-legal/info-2023/unpaid-caregivers-provide-billions-in-care.html","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":6000},"CELL_THERAPY_APPROACHES":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[300,800],"conservative":null,"description":"Distinct cell therapy approaches (CAR-T variants, iPSCs, MSCs, organoids)","displayName":"Cell Therapy Approaches","formatted":"500 approaches","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"approaches","value":500},"CHAIN_DISMISS_PROBABILITY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[0.8,0.97],"conservative":true,"description":"Probability someone dismisses the idea without engaging (the 'institutionalization rate')","displayName":"Dismissal Rate","formatted":"90.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.9},"CHAIN_EFFECTIVE_R":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[0.04,0.8],"conservative":null,"description":"Effective reproduction number per cascade generation: fraction of viewers who share (5%) x average forwards per sharer (3). CI spans pessimistic (2% x 2 = 0.04) to optimistic (10% x 8 = 0.80).","displayName":"Effective R","formatted":"0.15 ratio","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":0.15},"CHAIN_HORIZON_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-protocol-v1.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Conservative upper bound for cascade propagation (social media cascades propagate in weeks; 3 years allows for slower channels and multiple cascade waves)","displayName":"Model Horizon","formatted":"3 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":3},"CHAIN_IMPLEMENTER_ORBIT_SIZE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[150,5000],"conservative":true,"description":"Information-orbit size per implementer: people whose recommendation would reach them (staff, advisors, active social media feeds, professional contacts). Lower bound: Dunbar's 150; upper: corporate C-suite intake funnel.","displayName":"Implementer Orbit Size","formatted":"1,000 people","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"people","value":1000},"CHAIN_INITIAL_AUDIENCE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[10000,500000],"conservative":true,"description":"Conservative initial audience size (readers, website visitors, conference attendees)","displayName":"Initial Audience","formatted":"50,000 people","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"people","value":50000},"CHAIN_WORLD_LEADER_COUNT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Number of sovereign heads of state/government","displayName":"World Leader Count","formatted":"195 countries","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"countries","value":195},"CHILDHOOD_VACCINATION_COST_PER_DALY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Estimated cost per DALY for US childhood vaccination programs. Note: US cost-effectiveness studies primarily use cost per QALY (Quality-Adjusted Life Year) rather than cost per DALY. This estimate is derived from program costs and benefits for comparison purposes only.","displayName":"Childhood Vaccination Cost per DALY (Estimated)","formatted":"30 USD/DALY","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"childhood-vaccination-roi","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6316a4.htm","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/DALY","value":30},"CONCENTRATED_INTEREST_SECTOR_MARKET_CAP_USD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/incentive-alignment-bonds-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Estimated combined market capitalization of concentrated interest opposition (defense, fossil fuel, etc.)","displayName":"Concentrated Interest Sector Market Cap","formatted":"$5.00T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":5000000000000},"CORPORATE_DAMAGES_DRUGS_NEVER_DEVELOPED_DEATHS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Aggressive prosecutor pleading estimate for deaths from drugs never developed because regulatory cost and misallocated trial capacity suppressed development. Based on the Humanity v. Government exclusion note that drugs never developed may double or triple Count Two; this uses the high end of that pleading range.","displayName":"Corporate Damages Drugs Never Developed Deaths","formatted":"300.00M deaths","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"deaths","value":300000000},"COURT_BUILD_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/court-of-humanity.html","confidence":"estimated","confidenceInterval":[10000000,50000000],"conservative":null,"description":"One-time cost to build the Court of Humanity. Range reflects digital-first institutional design (no physical courtrooms, no detention, AI-assisted evidence triage, cryptographic provenance, stratified random jury infrastructure). Lower bound: minimal viable institution. Upper bound: fully-staffed initial operations, roughly 27% of one year of ICC operating budget (the ICC funds physical courtrooms, detention, and 425+ staff).","displayName":"Court of Humanity Build Cost","formatted":"$30.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":30000000},"CUMULATIVE_MILITARY_SPENDING_ALL_HISTORY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative global military spending across all recorded history in constant 2024 dollars. Fed era ($170T) + 19th century ($3T) + pre-1800 GDP-share estimate ($4-20T). Range: $150-225T. 75% was spent after 1945.","displayName":"Cumulative Military Spending (All History)","formatted":"$180.00T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"sipri-milex-2024","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2024","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":180000000000000},"CUMULATIVE_MILITARY_SPENDING_FED_ERA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative global military spending since 1913 (Fed era) in constant 2024 dollars. Built from: SIPRI 1988-2024 ($65-72T), Cold War 1946-1987 ($50-70T reconstructed), WWI+WWII+interwar ($33T from Harrison). Range: $150-190T.","displayName":"Cumulative Military Spending (Fed Era)","formatted":"$170.00T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"sipri-milex-2024","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2024","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":170000000000000},"DAYS_PER_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":null,"confidence":null,"confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":null,"displayName":"DAYS_PER_YEAR","formatted":"365","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":null,"sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":null,"value":365},"DCT_PLATFORM_FUNDING_MEDIUM":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/dfda.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Mid-range funding for commercial DCT platform","displayName":"Mid-Range Funding for Commercial Dct Platform","formatted":"$500.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":500000000},"DEFENSE_SECTOR_RETENTION_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Percentage of budget defense sector keeps under 1% treaty","displayName":"Percentage of Budget Defense Sector Keeps Under 1% treaty","formatted":"99.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.99},"DESTRUCTIVE_ECONOMY_BASE_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Base year for destructive economy projections. All threshold timelines are measured from this year.","displayName":"Destructive Economy Base Year","formatted":"2,025 year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"year","value":2025},"DFDA_ANNUAL_TRIAL_FUNDING":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Reference annual funding level used for direct-funding comparisons. Source-agnostic: funds could come from treaty reallocation, philanthropy, or public appropriation, and are modeled as funding available for pragmatic clinical trials rather than funding owed to any one organization.","displayName":"Reference Annual Pragmatic Trial Funding","formatted":"21.80B USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":21800000000},"DFDA_NPV_ADOPTION_RAMP_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Years to reach full pragmatic trial platform adoption","displayName":"Years to Reach Full Pragmatic Trial Platform Adoption","formatted":"5 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":5},"DFDA_NPV_ANNUAL_OPEX":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[11000000,26500000],"conservative":null,"description":"Pragmatic trial platform core framework annual opex (midpoint of $11-26.5M)","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Platform Core Framework Annual OPEX","formatted":"18.95M USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":18950000},"DFDA_NPV_UPFRONT_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[25000000,65000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Pragmatic trial platform core framework build cost","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Platform Core Framework Build Cost","formatted":"$40.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":40000000},"DFDA_OBSERVATIONAL_COST_PER_PATIENT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-spec-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.03,1],"conservative":null,"description":"Order-of-magnitude estimate for Stage 1 observational signal detection (PIS calculation). Validated by FDA Sentinel benchmark (~$1/patient/year for similar drug safety analysis at 100M+ scale). True cost varies with scale and complexity; exact value less important than order-of-magnitude difference vs pragmatic trials (~$500-929/patient) and traditional Phase 3 (~$41,000/patient).","displayName":"Stage 1 Observational Analysis Cost per Patient","formatted":"0.1 USD/patient","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/patient","value":0.1},"DFDA_OPEX_COMMUNITY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1000000,3000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Pragmatic trial platform community support costs","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Platform Community Support Costs","formatted":"2.00M USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":2000000},"DFDA_OPEX_INFRASTRUCTURE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[5000000,12000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Pragmatic trial platform infrastructure costs (cloud, security)","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Platform Infrastructure Costs","formatted":"8.00M USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":8000000},"DFDA_OPEX_PLATFORM_MAINTENANCE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[10000000,22000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Pragmatic trial platform maintenance costs","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Platform Maintenance Costs","formatted":"15.00M USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":15000000},"DFDA_OPEX_REGULATORY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3000000,8000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Pragmatic trial platform regulatory coordination costs","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Platform Regulatory Coordination Costs","formatted":"5.00M USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":5000000},"DFDA_OPEX_STAFF":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[7000000,15000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Pragmatic trial platform staff costs (minimal, AI-assisted)","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Platform Staff Costs","formatted":"10.00M USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":10000000},"DFDA_STORAGE_COST_BACKUP_PER_PATIENT_MONTHLY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/dfda.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.1,0.4],"conservative":null,"description":"Backup and redundancy cost per patient per month. For data safety and compliance.","displayName":"Backup/Redundancy Cost per Patient (Monthly)","formatted":"0.2 USD/patient/month","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/patient/month","value":0.2},"DFDA_STORAGE_COST_COMPUTE_PER_PATIENT_MONTHLY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/dfda.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.1,0.5],"conservative":null,"description":"Compute and API cost per patient per month. For data processing, correlation analysis, and PIS calculation.","displayName":"Compute/API Cost per Patient (Monthly)","formatted":"0.2 USD/patient/month","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/patient/month","value":0.2},"DFDA_STORAGE_COST_DATABASE_PER_PATIENT_MONTHLY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/dfda.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.15,0.6],"conservative":null,"description":"Database cost per patient per month. For structured data storage and querying.","displayName":"Database Cost per Patient (Monthly)","formatted":"0.3 USD/patient/month","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/patient/month","value":0.3},"DFDA_STORAGE_COST_RAW_PER_PATIENT_MONTHLY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/dfda.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.01,0.05],"conservative":null,"description":"Raw cloud storage cost per patient per month. Based on standard cloud storage rates for ~1GB patient data.","displayName":"Raw Storage Cost per Patient (Monthly)","formatted":"0.02 USD/patient/month","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/patient/month","value":0.02},"DFDA_TARGET_COST_PER_PATIENT_USD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Target pragmatic trial cost per patient in USD","displayName":"Target Pragmatic Trial Cost per Patient","formatted":"1,000 USD/patient","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/patient","value":1000},"DFDA_UPFRONT_BUILD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Pragmatic trial platform one-time build cost (central estimate)","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Platform One-Time Build Cost","formatted":"$40.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":40000000},"DFDA_UPFRONT_BUILD_MAX":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Pragmatic trial platform one-time build cost (high estimate)","displayName":"Pragmatic Trial Platform One-Time Build Cost (Maximum)","formatted":"$46.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":46000000},"DIH_NPV_ANNUAL_OPEX_INITIATIVES":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[14000000,32000000],"conservative":null,"description":"DIH broader initiatives annual opex (medium case)","displayName":"DIH Broader Initiatives Annual OPEX","formatted":"21.10M USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":21100000},"DIH_NPV_UPFRONT_COST_INITIATIVES":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[150000000,350000000],"conservative":null,"description":"DIH broader initiatives upfront cost (medium case)","displayName":"DIH Broader Initiatives Upfront Cost","formatted":"$229.75M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":229750000},"DISEASE_RELATED_CAREGIVER_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-disease.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Percentage of caregiving for treatable disease conditions (vs aging, disability, children)","displayName":"Percentage of Caregiving for Treatable Disease Conditions","formatted":"40.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"disease-related-caregiving-estimate","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.4},"EPIGENETIC_TARGETS_COUNT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1000,2000],"conservative":null,"description":"Druggable epigenetic targets (HDACs, DNMTs, histone modifiers, bromodomains)","displayName":"Epigenetic Drug Targets","formatted":"1,500 targets","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"targets","value":1500},"EVENTUALLY_AVOIDABLE_DALY_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[0.5,0.98],"conservative":null,"description":"Percentage of DALYs that are eventually avoidable with sufficient biomedical research. Uses same methodology as EVENTUALLY_AVOIDABLE_DEATH_PCT. Most non-fatal chronic conditions (arthritis, depression, chronic pain) are also addressable through research, so the percentage is similar to deaths.","displayName":"Eventually Avoidable DALY Percentage","formatted":"92.6%","formula":"1 - FUNDAMENTALLY_UNAVOIDABLE_DEATH_PCT","latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percentage","value":0.9262780790085205},"EVENTUALLY_AVOIDABLE_DEATH_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[0.5,0.98],"conservative":null,"description":"Percentage of deaths that are eventually avoidable with sufficient biomedical research and technological advancement. Central estimate ~92% based on ~7.9% fundamentally unavoidable (primarily accidents). Wide uncertainty reflects debate over: (1) aging as addressable vs. fundamental, (2) asymptotic difficulty of last diseases, (3) multifactorial disease complexity.","displayName":"Eventually Avoidable Death Percentage","formatted":"92.6%","formula":"1 - FUNDAMENTALLY_UNAVOIDABLE_DEATH_PCT","latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percentage","value":0.9262780790085205},"FAMILY_OFFICE_INVESTMENT_MIN":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/aligning-incentives.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Minimum investment for family offices","displayName":"Minimum Investment for Family Offices","formatted":"$5.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":5000000},"FUNDAMENTALLY_UNAVOIDABLE_DEATH_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Percentage of deaths that are fundamentally unavoidable even with perfect biotechnology (primarily accidents). Calculated as Σ(disease_burden × (1 - max_cure_potential)) across all disease categories.","displayName":"Fundamentally Unavoidable Death Percentage","formatted":"7.4%","formula":"Σ(DISEASE_BURDEN[cat] × (1 - RESEARCH_ACCELERATION_POTENTIAL[cat]))","latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percentage","value":0.07372192099147949},"GDP_BASELINE_GROWTH_RATE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Status-quo baseline annual global GDP growth rate.","displayName":"Baseline Global GDP Growth Rate","formatted":"2.5%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.025},"GLOBAL_COORDINATION_ACTIVATION_REWARD_PER_VERIFIED_PARTICIPANT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/nonprofit-coalition-strategy.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[2,10],"conservative":null,"description":"Planning midpoint for the direct cash incentive required to make a successful verified recruit materially worth sharing at global scale. Intended as a research-backed blended reward across referrer and recruit, not as the long-dated PRIZE claim value.","displayName":"Activation Reward per Verified Participant","formatted":"$5","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":1.5,"unit":"USD","value":5},"GLOBAL_COORDINATION_PLATFORM_AND_OPERATIONS_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[2000000000,8000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Fixed cost to run a global activation campaign toward majority-of-humanity participation: platform buildout, localization, customer support, compliance, payout operations, fraud response, and regional launch infrastructure.","displayName":"Global Coordination Platform and Operations Cost","formatted":"$4.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":1500000000,"unit":"USD","value":4000000000},"GLOBAL_COORDINATION_VERIFICATION_AND_PAYMENT_COST_PER_PARTICIPANT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[1,3],"conservative":null,"description":"Planning midpoint for non-reward variable cost per successful verified participant: identity verification, payment rails, fraud checks, support, and completion friction.","displayName":"Verification and Payment Cost per Participant","formatted":"$1.5","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":0.5,"unit":"USD","value":1.5},"GLOBAL_TO_US_POLITICAL_COST_RATIO":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/cost-of-change-analysis.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[3,8],"conservative":null,"description":"Ratio of global to US political reform costs. Based on discretionary spending ratio (~9x) discounted by ~50% for less transparent/expensive non-US political systems. Range 3-8 reflects uncertainty about non-US political dynamics and hidden influence channels.","displayName":"Global-to-US Political Cost Ratio","formatted":"5 ratio","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":5},"HALE_LONGEVITY_REALIZATION_SHARE_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Share of longer-run life-extension gains that have plausibly materialized into healthy years by year 15. Calibrated to the repo's conservative disease-eradication helper, which implies that only a minority of eventual longevity gains are realized within the first 15 years even under rapid research acceleration.","displayName":"HALE Longevity Realization Share (Year 15)","formatted":"30.0%","formula":"0.30","latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.3},"HOURS_PER_DAY":{"chapterUrl":null,"confidence":null,"confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":null,"displayName":"HOURS_PER_DAY","formatted":"24","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":null,"sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":null,"value":24},"HOURS_PER_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":null,"confidence":null,"confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":null,"displayName":"HOURS_PER_YEAR","formatted":"8,760","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":null,"sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":null,"value":8760},"HUMAN_PROTEIN_CODING_GENES":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[19000,21000],"conservative":null,"description":"Human protein-coding genes targetable by gene therapy, mRNA, or biologics (Human Genome Project consensus)","displayName":"Human Protein-Coding Genes","formatted":"20,000 genes","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"genes","value":20000},"IAB_MECHANISM_ANNUAL_COST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/incentive-alignment-bonds-paper.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[160000000,750000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Estimated annual cost of the IAB mechanism (high-end estimate including regulatory defense)","displayName":"IAB Mechanism Annual Cost (High Estimate)","formatted":"750.00M USD/year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"https://iab.warondisease.org#welfare-analysis","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://iab.warondisease.org#welfare-analysis","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":750000000},"IAB_POLITICAL_INCENTIVE_FUNDING_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-protocol-v1.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Percentage of treaty funding allocated to Incentive Alignment Bond mechanism for political incentives (independent expenditures/PACs, post-office fellowships, Public Good Score infrastructure)","displayName":"IAB Political Incentive Funding Percentage","formatted":"10.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.1},"INSTITUTIONAL_INVESTOR_MIN":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/incentive-alignment-bonds.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Minimum investment for institutional investors","displayName":"Minimum Investment for Institutional Investors","formatted":"$10.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":10000000},"LOBBYIST_BOND_INVESTMENT_MAX":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/aligning-incentives.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Maximum bond investment for lobbyist incentives","displayName":"Maximum Bond Investment for Lobbyist Incentives","formatted":"$20.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":20000000},"MILITARY_REDIRECT_GDP_BOOST_AT_30PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[0.035,0.075],"conservative":null,"description":"Historical calibration target: 30% military reallocation maps to ~5.5 percentage points annual GDP growth boost.","displayName":"GDP Growth Boost at 30% Military Reallocation","formatted":"5.5%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":0.01,"unit":"rate","value":0.055},"MINUTES_PER_HOUR":{"chapterUrl":null,"confidence":null,"confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":null,"displayName":"MINUTES_PER_HOUR","formatted":"60","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":null,"sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":null,"value":60},"MONTHS_PER_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":null,"confidence":null,"confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":null,"displayName":"MONTHS_PER_YEAR","formatted":"12","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":null,"sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":null,"value":12},"NPV_DISCOUNT_RATE_STANDARD":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Standard discount rate for NPV analysis (3% annual, social discount rate)","displayName":"Standard Discount Rate for NPV Analysis","formatted":"3.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.03},"NPV_TIME_HORIZON_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Standard time horizon for NPV analysis","displayName":"Standard Time Horizon for NPV Analysis","formatted":"10 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":10},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_CONFLICT_ELASTICITY":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.25,1.5],"conservative":null,"description":"Conflict reduction elasticity: how much conflict costs decrease per 1% military spending cut. ε=0: no effect (spending cuts don't reduce conflict). ε=0.5: moderate linkage (conservative). ε=1.0: proportional (baseline assumption). ε>1.0: shared enemy amplification (redirecting to disease creates unity).","displayName":"Peace Dividend Conflict Elasticity","formatted":"1 ratio","formula":"1% spending cut → ε% conflict cost reduction","latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":1},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_DIRECT_FISCAL_SAVINGS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Direct fiscal savings from 1% military spending reduction (high confidence)","displayName":"Direct Fiscal Savings from 1% Military Spending Reduction","formatted":"27.20B USD/year","formula":"TREATY_ANNUAL_FUNDING","latex":null,"sourceRef":"sipri2024","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://www.sipri.org/publications/2024/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2023","stdError":null,"unit":"USD/year","value":27200000000},"PEACE_DIVIDEND_INVESTMENT_REAL_RETURN_RATE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/peace-dividend.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Illustrative long-term real return rate used to compound the peace dividend stream into a future value at year 80. 13% is the approximate long-run real CAGR of the Nasdaq-100 index since its 1985 inception: accessible via passive ETFs (QQQ), grounded in 40+ years of data, and does not require assuming unique skill (Buffett) or access (VC/private markets). Chosen as more optimistic than 60/40 portfolio (5%) or S&P 500 (7%) because growth-tilted founder-led companies have historically outperformed the broad market.","displayName":"Assumed Long-Term Real Return for Investment Compounding","formatted":"0.13 percent","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.13},"PHARMA_PHASE_2_3_COST_BARRIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[1225181302.533259,1888547999.0566816],"conservative":null,"description":"Average Phase 2/3 efficacy testing cost per drug that pharma must fund (~60% of total drug development cost)","displayName":"Pharma Phase 2/3 Cost Barrier Per Drug","formatted":"$1.56B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"drug-development-cost","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":200000000,"unit":"USD","value":1560000000},"PRE_1962_VALIDATION_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Years of empirical validation for physician-led pragmatic trials (1883-1960)","displayName":"Pre-1962 Validation Years","formatted":"77 years","formula":"1960 - 1883","latex":null,"sourceRef":"life-expectancy-increase-pre-1962","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/data/us-life-expectancy-fda-budget-1543-2019.csv","stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":77},"PRIZE_POOL_PARTICIPATION_RATE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0.001,0.1],"conservative":null,"description":"Fraction of global investable financial assets that flow into the PRIZE pool. 1% central estimate parallels the 1% Treaty ask: 1% of your weapons money, 1% of your savings.","displayName":"PRIZE Pool Participation Rate","formatted":"0.01 percent","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.01},"QALYS_PER_COVID_DEATH_AVERTED":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[3,10],"conservative":null,"description":"Average QALYs gained per COVID death averted. Conservative estimate reflecting older age distribution of COVID mortality. See confidence_interval for range.","displayName":"QALYs per COVID Death Averted","formatted":"5 QALYs/death","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"QALYs/death","value":5},"RD_SPILLOVER_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[1.5,2.5],"conservative":null,"description":"R&D spillover multiplier: each $1 in directed medical research produces $2 in adjacent sector GDP growth (biotech, AI, computing, materials science, manufacturing). Conservative estimate; military R&D spillover produced the internet, GPS, jet engines. Medical R&D spillover already produced CRISPR, mRNA platforms, AI protein folding.","displayName":"R&D Spillover Multiplier","formatted":"2 x","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":0.25,"unit":"x","value":2},"SAFE_COMPOUNDS_COUNT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[7000,12000],"conservative":null,"description":"Total safe compounds available for repurposing (FDA-approved + GRAS substances, midpoint of 7,000-12,000 range)","displayName":"Safe Compounds Available for Testing","formatted":"9,500 compounds","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"compounds","value":9500},"SCALE_COMPRESSION_FACTOR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[-0.05,-0.01],"conservative":null,"description":"Diminishing-returns drag as the venture market expands ~15x (current global VC ~$300B/yr; Prize Fund deploys ~$4.7T/yr). More capital chasing deals compresses returns. Partially offset by market expansion (every viable idea gets funded, oligopolies face real competition). Point estimate is moderate; CI spans optimistic to pessimistic.","displayName":"Scale Compression Factor","formatted":"-0.025 percent","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":-0.025},"SECONDS_PER_MINUTE":{"chapterUrl":null,"confidence":null,"confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":null,"displayName":"SECONDS_PER_MINUTE","formatted":"60","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":null,"sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":null,"value":60},"SECONDS_PER_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":null,"confidence":null,"confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":null,"displayName":"SECONDS_PER_YEAR","formatted":"31.54M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":null,"sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":null,"value":31536000},"SHARING_TIME_MINUTES":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/recruitment-and-propaganda-plan.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Time to copy, paste, and send the recruitment message. 30 seconds.","displayName":"Sharing Time","formatted":"0.5 minutes","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"minutes","value":0.5},"TESTED_RELATIONSHIPS_ESTIMATE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[15000,50000],"conservative":null,"description":"Estimated drug-disease relationships actually tested (approved uses + repurposed + failed trials, midpoint of 15,000-50,000 range)","displayName":"Tested Drug-Disease Relationships","formatted":"32,500 relationships","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"relationships","value":32500},"TREATY_CAMPAIGN_BUDGET_LOBBYING":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[325000000,1300000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Political lobbying campaign: direct lobbying (US/EU/G20), Super PACs, opposition research, staff, legal/compliance. Budget exceeds combined pharma ($300M/year) and military-industrial complex ($150M/year) lobbying to ensure competitive positioning. Referendum relies on grassroots mobilization and earned media, while lobbying requires matching or exceeding opposition spending for political viability.","displayName":"Political Lobbying Campaign: Direct Lobbying, Super Pacs, Opposition Research, Staff, Legal/Compliance","formatted":"$650.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":650000000},"TREATY_CAMPAIGN_BUDGET_RESERVE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[20000000,150000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Reserve fund / contingency buffer (10% of total campaign cost). Using industry standard 10% for complex campaigns with potential for unforeseen legal challenges, opposition response, or regulatory delays. Conservative lower bound of $20M (2%) reflects transparent budget allocation and predictable referendum/lobbying costs.","displayName":"Reserve Fund / Contingency Buffer","formatted":"$100.00M","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":100000000},"TREATY_CAMPAIGN_DURATION_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/treaty-feasibility.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[3,5],"conservative":null,"description":"Treaty campaign duration (3-5 year range, using midpoint)","displayName":"Treaty Campaign Duration","formatted":"4 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":4},"TREATY_CAMPAIGN_VIRAL_REFERENDUM_BASE_CASE":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"medium","confidenceInterval":[150000000,410000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Viral referendum budget for 280M verified votes (base: $250M realistic with $0.50/vote avg, range: $150M optimistic $0.20/vote to $410M worst-case $1.05/vote). Components: platform ($35M), verification infrastructure (280M × friction × $0.18-0.20), tiered referral payments (varies by virality and marginal cost curve per diffusion theory), marketing seed ($5-15M). Based on PayPal referral economics ($18-36 inflation-adjusted) and biometric verification pricing ($0.15-0.25 at 300M+ scale).","displayName":"Viral Referendum Budget","formatted":"$250.00M","formula":"PLATFORM + VERIFICATION + PAYMENTS (tiered by adopter segment) + MARKETING","latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":250000000},"TREATY_EFFECTIVE_REALLOCATION_SHARE_YEAR_15":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Average military-to-medicine reallocation share over 15 years under the optimistic treaty take-hold path (1% for 3 years, 2% for 4 years, 5% for 5 years, 10% for 3 years).","displayName":"Treaty Effective Reallocation Share (Year 15)","formatted":"4.4%","formula":"(0.01×3 + 0.02×4 + 0.05×5 + 0.10×3) / 15","latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.044000000000000004},"TREATY_EFFECTIVE_REALLOCATION_SHARE_YEAR_20":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Average military-to-medicine reallocation share over 20 years under the optimistic treaty take-hold path (1% for 3 years, 2% for 4 years, 5% for 5 years, 10% for 8 years).","displayName":"Treaty Effective Reallocation Share (Year 20)","formatted":"5.8%","formula":"(0.01×3 + 0.02×4 + 0.05×5 + 0.10×8) / 20","latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.05800000000000001},"TREATY_REDIRECTED_SPENDING_INFINITE_ROI":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/1-percent-treaty.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"ROI when redirecting existing spending (no new costs = infinite return)","displayName":"Infinite ROI from Redirected Spending","formatted":"0 ratio","formula":"COMBINED_DIVIDENDS ÷ 0 = ∞","latex":"\\begin{gathered}\n\\text{ROI} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\text{Annual Benefits}}{\\text{New Spending}} \\\\\n= \\frac{\\$172B}{0} \\\\\n= \\infty\n\\end{gathered}","sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":0},"TREATY_REDUCTION_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"1% reduction in military spending/war costs from treaty","displayName":"1% Reduction in Military Spending/War Costs from Treaty","formatted":"1.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.01},"TRIAL_RELEVANT_DISEASES_COUNT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/untapped-therapeutic-frontier.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[800,1200],"conservative":null,"description":"Consolidated count of trial-relevant diseases worth targeting (after grouping ICD-10 codes)","displayName":"Trial-Relevant Diseases","formatted":"1,000 diseases","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"diseases","value":1000},"US_CONGRESS_MEMBER_COUNT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/unrepresentative-democracy.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Total members of US Congress (100 senators + 435 representatives)","displayName":"US Congress Members","formatted":"535 members","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"members","value":535},"US_DYSFUNCTION_PREMIUM_VS_SWITZERLAND":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"US 'dysfunction premium' vs Switzerland: US spends 3% more of GDP yet achieves 6.5 fewer years of life expectancy. This premium represents pure waste from governance inefficiency. Calculated as: 38% (US) - 35% (CH).","displayName":"US Dysfunction Premium vs Switzerland","formatted":"3 percent","formula":"US_GOVT_SPENDING_PCT_GDP - SWITZERLAND_GOVT_SPENDING_PCT_GDP","latex":null,"sourceRef":"oecd-govt-spending","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-spending.htm","stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":3},"US_GOV_WASTE_OVERLAP_DISCOUNT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Overlap discount factor between US government waste categories. Set to 1.0 (no discount). Categories are treated as additive, recognizing that any overlap is offset by excluded categories (state/local inefficiency, implicit subsidies, behavioral effects).","displayName":"Overlap Discount Factor","formatted":"1 ratio","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"ratio","value":1},"US_POLITICAL_EFFORT_MULTIPLIER":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/cost-of-change-analysis.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[0.4,1.2],"conservative":null,"description":"Fraction of campaign + lobbying spending needed to achieve policy reform. Accounts for efficiency gains from coordination, message clarity, and public interest alignment. Range 0.4-1.2 reflects uncertainty about political dynamics.","displayName":"Political Effort Multiplier (US)","formatted":"0.7 multiplier","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"multiplier","value":0.7},"US_VS_SINGAPORE_SPENDING_GAP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Government spending gap: US spends 23 percentage points MORE of GDP than Singapore yet achieves 6.6 fewer years of life expectancy.","displayName":"US-Singapore Spending Gap","formatted":"23 percent","formula":"US_SPENDING - SINGAPORE_SPENDING = 38% - 15%","latex":null,"sourceRef":"oecd-govt-spending","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-spending.htm","stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":23},"US_VS_SWITZERLAND_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_GAP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/optimocracy.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Life expectancy gap: Switzerland vs US. Switzerland achieves 6.5 extra years of life while spending 3% LESS of GDP on government.","displayName":"Switzerland-US Life Expectancy Gap","formatted":"6.5 years","formula":"SWITZERLAND_LE - US_LE = 84.0 - 77.5","latex":null,"sourceRef":"who-life-expectancy","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates/ghe-life-expectancy-and-healthy-life-expectancy","stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":6.5},"US_VS_SWITZERLAND_SPENDING_GAP":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/optimocracy.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Government spending gap: US spends 3 percentage points MORE of GDP than Switzerland yet achieves worse outcomes.","displayName":"US-Switzerland Spending Gap","formatted":"3 percent","formula":"US_SPENDING - SWITZERLAND_SPENDING = 38% - 35%","latex":null,"sourceRef":"oecd-govt-spending","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-spending.htm","stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":3},"VICTORY_BOND_FUNDING_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-protocol-v1.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Percentage of captured dividend funding VICTORY Incentive Alignment Bonds (10%)","displayName":"Percentage of Captured Dividend Funding VICTORY Incentive Alignment Bonds","formatted":"10.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.1},"WAR_AVG_YEARS_LIFE_LOST_PER_DEATH":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[20,35],"conservative":null,"description":"Average years of life lost per war/conflict death. Based on avg age at death ~28 (soldiers ~23, civilians older) vs mid-century life expectancy ~55.","displayName":"Average Years of Life Lost per War Death","formatted":"27 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"necrometrics-20th-century","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://necrometrics.com/all20c.htm","stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":27},"WAR_CHILD_DEATH_PCT":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[0.25,0.4],"conservative":null,"description":"Estimated share of war deaths since 1900 that were children under 18. Constructed from category-weighted estimates: combat ~3%, civilian ~35%, genocide ~33%, famine ~60%. Conservative aggregate ~33%. Sources: de Waal 2017 (famine child mortality), APA 2001 (civilian child share).","displayName":"Child Share of War Deaths Since 1900","formatted":"33.0%","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"de-waal-famine-child-mortality-2018","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2017.09.004","stdError":null,"unit":"rate","value":0.33},"WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_ANNUAL_GROWTH_BOOST":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[0.0165,0.0355],"conservative":null,"description":"Stacked annual growth boost from 8 non-overlapping war channels. Ch1: productive reallocation 0.8-1.5pp (budget + innovation merged). Ch2: preserved capital 0.2-0.4pp. Ch3: population 0.2-0.4pp. Ch4: no trade drag 0.1-0.3pp. Ch5: no environmental damage 0.1-0.2pp. Ch6: no Cold War isolation 0.1-0.3pp. Ch7: better institutions 0.1-0.3pp. Ch8: open scientific collaboration 0.05-0.15pp. Low 1.65pp, mid 2.6pp, high 3.55pp.","displayName":"Peace Growth Boost (8 Channels, Overlap-Corrected)","formatted":"0.026 percentage points","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"costa-rica-peace-dividend","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00220388.2024.2445533","stdError":null,"unit":"percentage points","value":0.026},"WAR_DEATHS_SINCE_1900":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[200000000,340000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Total deaths from wars, conflicts, genocides, and policy-induced famines since 1900. Built from non-overlapping categories: Rummel democide 264M (incl 21st century) + battle deaths 39M + collateral civilian deaths 30M - overlap adjustment 25M = 308M, rounded to 310M. Range: White low 200M to Rummel-high-plus-military 340M.","displayName":"Total War and Conflict Deaths Since 1900","formatted":"310.00M deaths","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"leitenberg-deaths-wars-2006","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/20060800_cdsp_occ_leitenberg.pdf","stdError":null,"unit":"deaths","value":310000000},"WAR_ENVIRONMENTAL_DESTRUCTION_SINCE_1900":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[2000000000000,10000000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative environmental destruction from wars since 1900 (2024 USD). Nuclear testing, Agent Orange, Gulf War oil fires, DU contamination, Zone Rouge, military CO2 emissions, land mines.","displayName":"Cumulative Environmental Destruction from War Since 1900","formatted":"$5.00T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"brown-costs-of-war-environmental","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://costsofwar.watson.brown.edu/costs/environmental","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":5000000000000},"WAR_MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_PRIZE_BUDGET":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[5000000000000,50000000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Aggressive prosecutor reserve for buying the missing medical toolchain: prizes, diagnostics, EHRs, sequencing, AI, factories, surveillance, and pragmatic-trial infrastructure before counting remaining money as direct trial capacity.","displayName":"War Medical Toolchain Prize Budget","formatted":"$20.00T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":20000000000000},"WAR_PROPERTY_DESTRUCTION_SINCE_1900":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[30000000000000,60000000000000],"conservative":null,"description":"Cumulative property and infrastructure destruction from major wars since 1900 (2024 USD). WWI ~$5T, WWII ~$23T, Korea ~$0.5T, Vietnam ~$1T, post-9/11 ~$8T, other ~$7.5T.","displayName":"Cumulative Property Destruction from War Since 1900","formatted":"$45.00T","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":"harrison-economics-wwii","sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":"https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/economics-of-world-war-ii/043CE9F3DC5036A731E5555C4A84E424","stdError":null,"unit":"USD","value":45000000000000},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_LAG_AFTER_DISEASE_CONTROL_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[10,65],"conservative":null,"description":"Additional lag after broad disease-control capacity before biological aging becomes a treatable risk factor in the aggressive prosecutor model.","displayName":"War-Redirect Aging Lag After Disease Control","formatted":"40 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":40},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_PLEADING_END_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"End year for the aggressive prosecutor post-cutoff plaintiff count.","displayName":"War-Redirect Pleading End Year","formatted":"2,024 year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"year","value":2024},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_START_YEAR":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":"Start year for the aggressive prosecutor medical redirect counterfactual.","displayName":"War-Redirect Medical Counterfactual Start Year","formatted":"1,900 year","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"year","value":1900},"WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_TOOLCHAIN_BOOTSTRAP_YEARS":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html","confidence":"low","confidenceInterval":[0,40],"conservative":null,"description":"Assumed years to build the missing medical toolchain before the queue-clearance clock runs at full force: diagnostics, EHRs, sequencing, AI, factories, surveillance, and trial infrastructure. Set so the central queue model yields a 1950 disease cutoff.","displayName":"War-Redirect Medical Toolchain Bootstrap Years","formatted":"14 years","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"years","value":14},"WISHOCRATIC_CROWD_ALPHA":{"chapterUrl":"https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/earth-optimization-prize-fund.html","confidence":"high","confidenceInterval":[0,0.015],"conservative":null,"description":"Allocation alpha from wishocratic sector- and manager-level capital routing. Crowds route capital across sectors and managers at least as well as cap-weighted indices or committee allocators. SPIVA shows 88% of active large-cap managers underperform their benchmark over 15 years; Preqin shows top-quartile vs bottom-quartile VC manager dispersion of 5-15%. The 0.5% central value assumes only that RAPPA avoids the bottom half of manager dispersion at the allocation level, not that it finds the top quartile. This is not a claim that crowds beat experts at picking individual companies; power-law outlier selection is the one thing crowds are empirically worse at than specialists.","displayName":"Wishocratic Crowd Allocation Alpha","formatted":"0.005 percent","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":"definition","sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":"percent","value":0.005},"_CASCADE_GENERATIONS":{"chapterUrl":null,"confidence":null,"confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":null,"displayName":"_CASCADE_GENERATIONS","formatted":"3","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":null,"sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":null,"value":3},"_R0":{"chapterUrl":null,"confidence":null,"confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":null,"displayName":"_R0","formatted":"0.15","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":null,"sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":null,"value":0.15},"_SOCIAL_NETWORK_POP":{"chapterUrl":null,"confidence":null,"confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":null,"displayName":"_SOCIAL_NETWORK_POP","formatted":"5.00B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":null,"sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":null,"value":5000000000},"_US_BASE_POLITICAL_SPENDING":{"chapterUrl":null,"confidence":null,"confidenceInterval":null,"conservative":null,"description":null,"displayName":"_US_BASE_POLITICAL_SPENDING","formatted":"28.80B","formula":null,"latex":null,"sourceRef":null,"sourceType":null,"sourceUrl":null,"stdError":null,"unit":null,"value":28800000000}},"shareableSnippets":{},"sourceFile":"packages/data/src/parameters/parameters-calculations-citations.ts"},"cacheSeconds":3600,"generatedAt":"2026-05-21T04:21:33.179Z","contentHash":"sha256:b02e56bb25c71a30aa43112512ec0ea11acf650943ce23792e3366d8e681ae8e"}